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@pslst15
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they got this with a R+4 sample
Pennsylvania poll by MassINC (A+), Sep 12-18. 🟦 Kamala Harris 52%.🟥 Donald Trump 47%.
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New North Carolina SurveyUSA poll . Harris 46 (+1) .Trump 45 . Stein 48 (+14).Robinson 34.
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Trafalgar and Wick PA polls have more influence than the CNN poll in Nate’s election model
If you are wondering why I know the right wing spam works on Nate, see below. Anyone saying "HE DOWNWEIGHTS THE RIGHT WING POLLS" that is false. He values them highly:. PA:.Trafalgar worth 50% more than Morning Consult.Wick worth 2x Morning Consult.Wick == Emerson. MI:.
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Harris closing the gap with Trump on crime and economy in new Reuters/Ipsos poll that hasn’t been released yet
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Fox News poll . Michigan .Harris - 49%.Trump - 49%. Pennsylvania .Harris - 49%.Trump - 49%. Minnesota .Harris - 52%.Trump - 46% . Wisconsin .Trump - 50% .Harris - 49%.
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this pollster had Whitmer +9 before 2022 election. she won by 10.5.
New MICHIGAN Detroit News/WDIV poll. 🟦 Kamala Harris 42%.🟥 Donald Trump 41%.🟨 RFK Jr. 10%. Previous Biden vs Trump poll: TRUMP +8 in January.
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@DanteAtkins they do this so they can post a poll in a few weeks showing Trump lead and say Harris is falling.
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@krazgreinetz @SpecialPuppy1 this is wrong. the primary and dnc became a mess and the email stuff was a drag on the campaign.
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Atlas 2020 state polls (10/30-10/31) . MI Biden +2.WI Biden +2 .PA Trump +1.GA Trump +2 .AZ Trump +2 .NC Trump +2 .TX Trump +3 .OH Trump +4.
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nate cohn listing some reasons why pennsylvania might be left of michigan and wisconsin
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Atlas Intel has been good lately so their poll shouldn’t be ignored. But what is this?
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the NBC poll that has Harris up 5 has the largest share of voters who describes themselves as part of “MAGA movement” in recent NBC polls
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This poll has Harris winning only 29% of non-col white voters. Biden got 37%, Clinton 35%, Obama 40%. Are polls capturing too many Trump voters among this group?.
NEW national poll from CNN/SSRS (B):. 🟦 Kamala Harris 48% (+1).🟥 Donald Trump 47%.
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Net fav rating from Suffolk PA poll . Walz +3.Harris +2.Trump -11.Vance -12.
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AtlasIntel final polls seemed to have been good, especially outside of the 7 swing states . poll vs actual .VA +5 -> +5.2 .TX -11 -> -13.9.OH -9 -> -11.3 .MT -20 -> -20.9.
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Since July 29, there’s been only two national polls showing Trump with a lead from A/B rated pollsters @VoteHubUS
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@RottenInDenmark gallup, which has a larger sample, says it’s not true.
@gelliottmorris These are results from aggregated Gallup surveys. Sample sizes for young men (age 18-29) are fairly large. At least n=1,000+ per year. Not seeing much. Maybe slightly more liberal?
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@SpecialPuppy1 Peltola and MGP need to take advantage and create some coalition of semi progressives who can win Trump districts.
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Nate Silver forecast has Harris under 50% to win partly because she hasn’t led a PA poll in a while
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CNN doing a panel with undecided voters in PA. 6 of 8 voters are voting for Harris after the speech.
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it's very possible that the more people see and hear from Harris the more they like her
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Harris ahead by 4 in latest Economist/YouGov poll. It was tied last week.
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still doesn’t explain why a red wave didn’t materialize in november 2022 when sentiment was even lower.
Consumer sentiment signals a Trump win. When incumbent party wins reelection, average score is 90.3. When incumbent party loses reelection, it's 84.9. Current score is 67.9. (U of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment).
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@schlagteslinks I think Trump dropped out and Desantis became the nominee his favorables would go up too, mostly due to Rs and indies coming home.
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@chathamharrison @PropterMalone I’ve seen this with a bunch of dudes in their 40s and 50s going through stuff last few years.
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@NapervillePol if she’s winning the state by 19 still that means she’s doing fine or even better everywhere else?.
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@PropterMalone I think the data they’re using isn’t very good.
i’m on my phone so excuse the chart quality, but here is that graph of conservative self-ID among young men but adding lines for liberals and moderates for context. margin of error here for each line is close to 10 points
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@MappingFL I think if the VP was polling better or had more support, Biden would’ve already stepped down.
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@CentristMadness people don’t give him credit cause they think he’s old to be leading a good economy.
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