Florida Data Geek ✝️🇺🇦
@MappingFL
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Florida Data and Redistricting Guy (He/Him). Lefty Lutheran. Politics, religion, and wrestling. Sign up for my substack! This election is going to kill me
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As one of the few members of Election Twitter who is currently on campaigns right now…. Talking to regular voters daily…..
I can say, democratic primary voters (we got august races coming up) all are digging in on Biden staying in
They are angry about the public attacks
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I'm on a call right now about "Project 2025."
I've said this 50 times, if you are a progressive who doesn't plan for Biden, you are endorsing that plan
There is literally NOTHING you could tell me as an acceptable excuse to not vote for Biden. But by all means, try me
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@Lemommeringue
they use a underground hotspring water that has a lower freezing point and the roads have a sloped draining system
thats why it isn't everywhere, only places where it works well
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I am now firmly at the point where if Biden loses I will place all of the blame on the last few weeks of public attacks by congress members of my own party.
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Communists in 1932 Germany said same “fuck it let’s overthrow it” thing
They all died in prison camps along with the 10 million Jews/gays/Romani they threw under the bus along with tens of millions of civilians killed in the wars that followed
I despise this sentiment
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In an alternative timeline…..
Biden announces in 2023 that he isn’t running
A democratic field fractures amid fights over Gaza, Immigration, and so on
One person limps away weakened and party divided
Pundits beg Biden to enter race and save Party with a steady hand.
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God they fucked that guy so bad
As President Biden references what was in the bipartisan border deal, Sen. Lankford mouths, "That's true."
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I just want to make one thing very clear
If Biden ever opted to step down, and Harris is not given the spot, there will be massive revolt from Black voters
You can see it online already. And they would be completely right.
It’s Harris or Biden. That’s it.
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Everyone that meets Biden is like "oh yeah he's fine"
Eric Robert Stolz w/Laborers 113 wanted to see Biden in Racine after hearing criticism over how the president struggled to walk & talk. In person, Stolz saw no issues.
Biden made “good eye contact … I started clapping. He looked right at me. I was like, ‘what up, Joe?’”
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And since most elected Coroners are Republicans that definitely is not the case!
(Any excuse to post this)
You literally can’t ‘fake’ murder statistics unless you think all the coroner offices in the country are in cahoots to make Biden look better.
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Every Nevada democrat was mailed a ballot. Anyone unhappy with Biden could have written “non of these candidates” - just like we saw on the GOP primary
But fact is, democrats like Biden. The base likes him.
Maybe Twitter doesn’t.
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Note. ALL FOUR Republican Congresspeople from Utah voted for national same sex marriage
Mormon's are nicer than white Evangelicals. Example
#8784048
Amazing shift in politics over the last 14 years (remember Prop 8)?
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Christmas Article! 🎄🎅🏼
How did the neighborhood from Home Alone vote?
The real villags of Winnetka, IL used to be a solidly Republican upper-income suburb. The MAGA movement is pushing if to democrats. 2022 saw the biggest democratic gains yet
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I honestly wouldn’t be surprised by a 8-1 or 9-0 decision
Just so everyone is clear, there is virtually no chance that the Supreme Court will rule Donald Trump ineligible for the presidency.
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In 1969, the US House passed the Bayh-Celler Amendment, which would have eliminated the electoral college
But it died in the Senate
I wrote about this in 2019, but there was ample bipartisan support for getting rid of the Electoral College in the late 1960s, when, in the aftermath of the close 1968 election, Congress nearly passed a constitutional amendment to abolish it.
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All of these are true
1) Biden should not have run again because his age is a negative
2) Its also likely a contested primary could have opened party fissures that hurt the party in November
3) The age issue is optics fueled by horrible press reporting (Biden is fine)
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Tonight in Alabama, Democrats flipped a Trump +1 seat by 25%.
Democrat Marilyn Lands won this Madison-area seat by running on protecting IVF
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This does miss 18-24s, as they are not folks we are talking to right now (primary is before classes start, college students are not an august factor).
But retirees, Black democrars, Hispanic democrats, suburbs, working class
All want Biden to stay
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Middle age suburbanites broadly are the most agreeable to Biden stepping aside. They plan to vote Biden, but they’d understand and respect him stepping back
Black voters are downright indignant Biden is being treated as he is. Will be angry if he steps down.
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Plenty of these folks were more iffy over a week ago. The debate did spook many
But the public calls to step down are being universally regarded as a bad idea. They don’t think he’s leaving so they think he’s just being attacked
They all fear trump. Want fighting to stop
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A fun🎄 Christmas 🎄 article. How did the neighborhood from HOME ALONE vote in recent elections?
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And so I don’t have to say it 20 times, I am reporting what I am seeing. And I’ve made it clear it’s not a proper polling sample
No one would reject Harris. But the broad consensus I am getting it “please everyone stop fighting”
They want to move forward one way or another
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The path is clear boys. Embrace socialism or die virgins.
NEW: an ideological divide is emerging between young men and women in many countries around the world.
I think this one of the most important social trends unfolding today, and provides the answer to several puzzles.
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Biden isn't the problem, its the complete lack of civic understanding about younger people about what a president can or cannot do
Bernie could have won in 2020 & we'd be in the same position
David, get your generation in line, end of story, or you won't have a future election
If Biden can’t adequately and immediately address the mass drop he has had in the polls with young people there is no path to victory. Simply wanting it to be different or acting like there is no problem doesn’t change the fact we have a major problem.
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From today's NYT article looking back at 2000 Florida
Dumbest, ballot, design, ever
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Trump gifted the Democrats with a far-right weirdo of a running mate
Now if my own party can shut the fuck up about Biden and focus on the actual general election, I just think we can win
You know, if my party would take it’s fucking Xanax and get to work
JD Vance has made it clear he would not have certified the 2020 election results.
In February, he said, "If I had been vice president, I would have told the states, like Pennsylvania, Georgia, and so many others that we needed to have multiple slates of electors and I think the
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Today marks the anniversary of the ratification of the 19th Amendment, giving women the guaranteed right to vote
Here is the US House Vote, which passed in May of 1919.
I think I notice a pattern
#19thAmendment
#19thAmendmentDay
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I am devastated to hear that Bob Graham has passed away. Graham was elected Governor in 1978 and US Senator in 1986. He was incredibly popular in both offices and his legend lives on.
I honor him how I know best, showing his landslide 1998 re-election
You will be missed Sir
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Someone finally goes on TV and tells the pundits “you have no fucking idea what you are talking about”
I haven’t always been on the same page as Lichtman, but he nailed it here
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The swing between the 1960 Election and 1964. Red is a GOP improvement, blue is DEM improvement.
Jim Crow made its preference clear
Your party…founded the KKK.
Your party…wrote Jim Crow.
You’re party…filibustered the Civil Rights Act of 1964.
Your party…has a sitting governor (VA) who featured a picture of a Klansman in his yearbook.
Your party…opposes school choice, THE top civil rights issue today.
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Not to be a kill joy. But a reminder that you CANNOT celebrate that abomination of the New York map and then scream about GOP gerrymanders elsewhere.
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In Bradford West, the most Muslim constituency in the UK (54% estimate)
Naz Shah has won re-election, but is down 45%! She is pro-Gaza so this no doubt saved her. She infamously defeated George Galloway in 2015
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The last time abortion was on the ballot in Florida was 2012
That year, the legislature put up a measure that affirmed abortion wasn't protected by privacy and also aimed to restrict funding
Pro-Choice (NO) got 55%.
I do think pro-choice has path to 60% this year
#flapol
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For next year I’m gonna make something very clear
1). If you plan to vote for Trump
Or
2). You plan to deny Biden your vote for leftist reasons
You are worthless in my eyes. A traitor to humanity & liberal democracy. Your decision is incompatible with decency or intelligence
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Indian Removal Act - a law that would be considered genocide by the modern UN laws
Davy Crockett, the lone Tennessee NO vote, said "I believed it was a wicked, unjust measure"
What is/was the worst law in American history?
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Hi LGBT in same state here. While I also would love for Biden to invade Florida - I fear it might start a massive war.
I tend to blame DeSantis for our problems. Not Biden, who is not a king
Also Andrew Gillum’s fault for running for governor despite having ethical baggage
In 2020, I voted for Biden. Since then, my state banned gender-affirming care for minors, censored LGBTQ studies, and made it a criminal misdemeanor for me to use the women’s restroom at my college.
We’re done hearing “vote harder.” It’s time to organize:
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It’s a mere formality at this point, but the 2024 election will be Biden v Trump
And I am all in on Biden.
And if you are not, you don’t need to follow me. Don’t care if it’s from the right or the left. You are morally obligated to vote to stop that wanna-be dictator
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With almost all votes in, the GOP takes HD118, a majority Cuban seat in Miami-Dade, by 6 points
It’s Trump +17 and over DeSantis +30
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The NY court made the correct decision in a vacume from a legal and logical standpoint. The map was garbage.
But there is a real problem in how GOP courts let this stuff pass on their side. The state-level asymetry is a real problem.
Redistricting is broken in this country
BREAKING: The New York Court of Appeals, the state's highest court, has voided congressional and State Senate maps drawn by Democrats that would have benefited their candidates.
Story TK.
Decision here:
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More than 900,000 Republicans than Democrats voted in Florida for this elections
Republicans made up 45% of the vote, Democrats just 33%
The Turnout difference was 67% vs 52%, a 15 point difference in turnout. It has NEVER been that bad.
More coming in days ahead
#flapol
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In 2020, Key West passed three referendums to regulate cruise ships. All passed easily. A measure on environmental issues got 81%
The florida legislature overrode these after a port owner gave DeSantis’ campaign a million dollars
Read about it here
Key West is in the middle of the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary, which limits some fishing and other maritime activity to save the environment
And yet….
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Here we go, the results for the HD35 special election
Tom Keen flipped this seat for the Democrats, winning by just over 400 votes and just under 3%
As discussed before, the vast bulk of the vote comes from the eastern Orlando area, lots of empty land otherwise
#flapol
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Biden crushing the Puerto Rican Presidential Primary. No signs of protest vote here
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In July last year, I posited that DeSantis scheduled the HD35 special for after Iowa because he didn't want a loss to cause a bad news cycle before the caucus
Well, DeSantis lost the Iowa caucuses, and his party lost HD35
#flapol
#sayfie
Ron DeSantis has scheduled special elections
HD118, a very likely GOP hold, will be held in December
But HD35, a Biden +4 seat that could flip democratic, is January 16
One day after the Iowa caucuses.
Why? So that a flip won’t look bad for Ron until post that.
#flapol
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Michael Knowles in 1934 Berlin
“I didn’t say Jews should be eradicated. I said ‘Judaism’ should be eradicated”.
Eat shit dude
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In last nights Michigan Democratic Primary, all eyes were on Dearborn for the “uncommitted” push
Uncommitted won 56% of the city, but absolutely dominated in the Arab-heavy east, taking over 80% in several precincts
#Dearborn
#MichiganPrimary
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@Mr_Macarony
someone like you is the least I fear. conservative twitter kids can't order a pizza without having a mental breakdown much less "plan" anything
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I firmly believe he can be ousted in 2 years
Decision Desk HQ projects George Latimer wins the Democratic primary for US House in New York's 16th Congressional District.
#DecisionMade
: 9:21pm ET
Follow live results here:
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Yeah pretty sure Democrats have flipped the Trump +1 Alabama State House seat around Madison
Half precincts in, massive DEM lead
Ran on protecting IVF
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Whoever replaces him will be 10x worse. Keep your champaign corked
WASHINGTON (AP) — Mitch McConnell will step down as the Senate's Republican leader in November, ending a record run in the powerful post.
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Its Halloween season! 🎃 To begin my 31 day
#SpookyMaps
series, I start by offering a look at a passion project of mine for years, looking at Coroner elections in America
Over 1,000 counties still elect coroners on partisan ballots. See details in link
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We just flipped a state house seat here. Shut up and knock on doors
The Democratic Party, as of today, is the party of Wall Street, not Main Street.
That is the biggest reason why Donald Trump likely becomes President again.
Until the foundation of our political & economic system changes, arguing lesser of two evils is a waste of time.
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Here it is. The 2022 Kentucky Abortion referendum by precinct. The measure would have stated you had no right to an abortion. The NO (pro-choice side) won by 4%.
I wrote about this referendum - and future analysis I have planned - in this substack
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Harry Reid was a badass Mormon Democrat who was a boxer, took on the mob in Vegas (including assaulting a mob associate), transformed Nevada, AND pushed through Obamacare while keeping a caucus of Ben Nelson and Bernie Sanders united.
The man is a king.
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Macron's insane gamble to call elections was saved by the French left
No credit to Macron, who put the country at risk and then spent the runoff waffling on how to coalesce on the runoffs
The left won this, and his party better accept being the junior partners in a coalition
Projected results of France's high-turnout 2nd round
#legislatives2024
put Le Pen's Rassemblement National up on 2022, but well below expectations: the "Republican front" has prevailed. The night belongs to broad-left New Popular Front, apparently on track for plurality of seats.
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You know what, good for her
Rather than drag NJ Democrats through a vicious and expensive primary (I assume Kim is gonna walk through the primary now) - you realize you don't have the votes and call it a day
More folks can learn from this
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So..... he didn't protect the fan who was shot and killed?
I mean blasphemy aside, someone innocent is DEAD.
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Anti-gay, right wing candidates for the Eau Claire, Wisconsin School board failed to win any races last night. Two incumbents and an LGBT ally won their races - thanks to strong support in the city proper
Confirmed: The 3 school board candidates who ran on anti-LGBT platforms in Eau Claire, Wisconsin, lost tonight.
The election took place in a context of violent threats against the board's LGBT-inclusive policies:
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First time Santorum has been in the Senate in over a decade
(I’m so sorry)
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Election Day in Florida is blood red. Here is eday is the biggest counties
Miami-Dade: GOP +7
Broward: DEM +3
Palm Beach: GOP +18
Hillsborough: GOP +20
Pinellas: GOP +25
#flapol
#sayfie
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If you answered YES to literally any of these and also plan to vote for him, you a morally-bankrupt bound-for-hell individual
New CNN poll on what people think Trump will try to do if he wins (as most polls show he is ahead or even with Biden):
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A few weeks ago, Pennsylvania voters approved a constitutional amendment that banned discrimination based on race or ethnicity
This was a bridge too far for three counties
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Last night, Washington DC Mayor Muriel Bowser won re-election with just under 50% of the vote; running strongest in white, upper-income neighborhoods. Her strongest opponent was Comm. Robert White, who did well in liberal white areas and heavily black neighborhoods
#DCision22
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It is actually not politically beneficial for Ron to do this. This is in-the-weeds stuff voters don't care about.
What it does reveal is Ron's massive character flaw - he HATES being made a fool of. He will burn things down rather than admit defeat.
Boom.
@GovRonDeSantis
vows Disney will not win battle with state. Says Fla Leg will void development agmt & says since Disney "opened" things back up the state will "look" at hotel taxes, look at putting tolls on roads, look at developing property owned by new district
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“Unprocessed” means they have not yet separated out what they are
“Other write ins” is where ceasefire is
Why is the far left so bad at understanding election reporting?
14.1% 😭 This is is why they didn’t want “ceasefire” to count as a recognized write-in
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@ChazNuttycombe
Yes and I stand by it. Your vote is a moral compact with the society you live in. Why would I say you can condemn millions to death for any reason?
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The biggest State Senate battle in Florida is set
Prominent civil rights attorney Daryl Parks is challenging Republican Corey Simon for this Biden +3 seat
Simon won the seat in 2022 and is easily the most vulnerable Republican up this year
#flapol
#sayfie
Here's one to watch: Tallahassee Democrat
@darylparks
enters race against incumbent Republican Corey Simon
@csime90
for
@FLSenate
District 3. Simon flipped the seat in 2022. Match-up between 2 prominent Black men: Simon a frmr football star & Parks a well-known atty
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On this day in 1965, LBJ signed the Voting Rights Act into law. Just three days earlier, the final house vote on the bill took place. The measure easily passed, but was widely rejected by the Jim Crow south
#VRA
#VotingRights
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Florida DEMs have gotten what I believe to be their strongest recruit against Rick Scott in the
#FLSEN
race
DMP won a Dade congressional seat in 2018, knocking off incumbent Carlos Curbelo
Even losing in 2020, she outran Biden, nearly holding amid a red swing
#flapol
#sayfie
My name is Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. I'm an immigrant, a Latina, and a mother.
I'm not afraid to take on anyone who doesn't put Florida first. That means you, Rick Scott. That's why I'm running for U.S. Senate.
Join our campaign at .
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The Civil Rights Act was signed into law today in 1964.
That was the same day as its final House passage, which you can see below.
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Another person who knows nothing of FL politics or campaigns.
Crist is popular with democrats. He won that primary easily. He's been a D congressman for 3 terms
But you CAN'T inspire your way out of a 20-to-1 resource gap
Lets not forget the 1% Crist loss in the 2014 red wave
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You cannot convince me these people aren’t oil and gas double agents designed to make the environmental movement look like idiots
BREAKING: We just shut down a gala honoring U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski. Murkowski is a murderer. She incinerates us to enrich her cronies. As Chevron's top lobbyist gave her an award, we stepped in and stopped the ceremony. Respect us or expect us. 🧵
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On this day in 1964, the US Congress passed the landmark Civil Rights Act
The passage came after massive lobbying efforts from MLK and LBJ and their respective allies. The Jim Crow south was near universal in opposition
#CivilRightsAct
#CivilRightsActof1964
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We have 5 democratic primaries today. My thoughts.
Mississippi: Biden landslide
Georgia: Biden landslide
Washington: Likely protests in Seattle area
Democrats Abroad: Very left leaning, could be big protest
N Mariana Islands: Jason Palmer looking for another win!
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Martin Luther King Day became an official federal holiday in 1983.
The House vote can be seen here; with rural opposition making up the bulk of the 90 votes against. The bill passed easily, however.
#MartinLutherKingDay
#MLKDay
#MLKDay2024
#MartinLutherKingJr
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No wordle, but just Florida
🟥🟥🟦🟥🟥🟦
🟥🟦🟥
🟥🟥🟥
🟦🟦🟥
🟥🟥🟥
🟥🟦
🟦
🟥
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#FL15
is a Trump +3 and DeSantis (2018) +1 seat
A nasty GOP primary, with Lee ousted, and bitter feelings all around, would be a dream for the DCCC and FL Democrats
Qualifying ends April 26
Lee endorsed DeSantis (then Trump after the governor left presidential race). She had previously served as Florida Secretary of State under RD.
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But noted political science expert George Clooney told me the House was gone
2024 Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 48% (+3)
Republicans 45%
.
@DataProgress
/
@SplitTicket_
, 2,067 LV, 7/1-3
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Today is my mother's memorial service. A woman who gave me my politics - i wanted to write about her home - the
#OH13
- its history - and it's recent election
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From the census - the population center of American continues to shift west, but the 2010-2020 move is the smallest in decades
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Seems increasingly likely Wilton Manors pride tragedy was an accident by a member of the parade
And I am gonna say this now. Considering LGBT people are still attacked, harassed, and murdered in America - pardon some of us for assuming the worst. And kindly fuck off.
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When you have a bunch of 1-star reviews accusing you of being terrible at best and a scammer drug addict at worst - you only have one option
Blame the gays!
This kind of bigotry should have no place in our Tallahassee community. It is an embarrassment and the people at Rick’s Repair Shop should be ashamed of their foolish, hurtful, and wrong words.
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In her 2015 race, Galloway accused her of lying about the fact she'd been forced into an abusive arranged marriage while in Pakistan. He basically accused her of disparaging her own ethnic/religious group. If you need more proof how disgusting he is.
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On Saturday, Caddo Parish held its Sheriff election.
This was a result of the the November runoff being ordered for a re-vote after Republican John Nickelson questioned several ballots.
This time, Democrat Henry Whitehorn won by 4,265 votes, becoming Caddo's FIRST black sheriff
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In Nov, Kentucky rejected a constitutional amendment that would have stated abortion was NOT a right in the state.
I'm working on a breakdown of this referendum as well as a 2018 West Virginia vote that PASSED
I'm going to look at abortion politics in the coal fields
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