Geoffrey Skelley
@geoffreyvs
Followers
27K
Following
7K
Media
2K
Statuses
60K
Senior Elections Analyst @FiveThirtyEight. @Center4Politics alum, VA native now in the other V state. @UVA @JMU #COYS he/him https://t.co/OiT2nJms3K
Joined October 2009
Looking for election results? I made a Google spreadsheet with state-by-state sources for results. Let me know if there's one I missed because I probably did!
33
28
186
Big picture, this is an extremely disturbing development that has popped up in multiple states. Seeking to destroy people's votes is terrible and anti-democratic. More specifically, this is in WA-03, one of the most highly-contested House races in the country.
Burning ballots were pulled from inside a smoking ballot box in Vancouver, Washington, this morning, hours after police responded to an arson at a Portland ballot box.
211
4K
13K
Gov. Matt Bevin (R) claims voter fraud cost him the election in #KYGov. This argument wouldn't be convincing in the first place because voter fraud is incredibly rare, but it's even less so when EVERY OTHER GOP statewide nominee won.
"We know for a fact that there have been more than a few irregularities. They are very well corroborated and that's alright. What they are exactly, how many, which ones & what effect if any they have will be determined according to law that's well established." 2/2 #KYElections.
415
1K
5K
If you previously believed Nutella was nutritious, I've got some beach front property in Nebraska to sell you.
This graphic showing what's actually in Nutella might make you rethink nutrition labels
17
819
3K
This is just patently incorrect in every way, actually. If you exclude the metro areas for the Bay Area, LA/OC+Riverside/SB & San Diego, Biden still won the rest of the state 58.5% to 39%. And if you excluded EVERY metro area in the state, Biden actually won the rest 48.7%-48.4%.
21
205
2K
I 'm still having trouble comprehending this. Literally no one saw this coming. Even the most bullish Dem couldn't have seen gains beyond +10. #VAGov
44
534
2K
Vivek Ramaswamy essentially being center stage was not on my bingo board five months ago.
92
102
2K
If you thought President Trump's term ended because of a screenshot of some Department of State notification, maybe take a breath and go for a walk.
86
95
2K
If she's picked, Harris would be the 1st Democratic nominee from the West in the entire history of the party. She was the party's 1st VP from that region, too. So far, the farthest-west Dems were George McGovern from SD (1972) & William Jennings Bryan from NE (1896, 1900, 1908).
53
315
2K
McCain on possibly supporting Tillerson for SecState: "Sure. There's also a realistic scenario that pigs fly."
86
1K
1K
Holy crap Buttigieg's team already bought and it redirects to Buttigieg's website.
164
392
2K
#NVSen is basically a wrap as the final mail votes come in. Cortez Masto only down about 800 votes, but with ~67k voets left to tally in Clark & Washoe and her winning a 60%+ clip of those so far, she'll win.
7
125
1K
Quick review of the margins in those races:. #KYGov: D+0.5.KY AG: R+15.4.KY Ag Com: R+19.6.KY Auditor: R+14.6.KY SecState: R+4.4.KY Treasurer: R+21.4.
115
431
1K
Buttigieg's departure is a good reminder that ranked-choice voting really makes a lot of sense in primaries. That way, tons of voters who've already cast ballots for Super Tuesday could have their alternative choice to Buttigieg count instead.
26
296
1K
Gotta day, my pride for my country just shrank a little seeing that only 48% like Reubens. The best. C’mon people.
155
109
1K
Thing is, they have weeks. The final results don’t need to be certified until early December, and everything sorted out by Dec. 8 to meet the safe harbor deadline. What we need is a media that isn’t setting unrealistic expectations about unprecedented circumstances for voting.
“Weeks to count influx of mail in ballots” in. PENNSYLVANIA.
6
338
1K
Al Gore lost.
Professor who predicted last 9 presidential elections on how impeachment will impact 2020
90
110
1K
Some point out the new Georgia election rules could backfire on Rs by motivating Ds. This is right, to a point. But it's bad to hone in on electoral effects at the expense of normative problem of having one party bent on restricting voting rights & falsely claiming rampant fraud.
16
217
1K
Just a reminder: Crowd size, one way or another, is not a useful electoral indicator — pandemic or no pandemic.
93
105
1K
A generic candidate does not exist, volume 2,102.
NEW POLL: @JoeBiden would lose badly to a generic Republican, 46% to 37%. But BIDEN would beat leading Republican prospects head to head, including:.➡️ DONALD TRUMP.➡️ MIKE PENCE.➡️ RON DESANTIS.➡️ TED CRUZ .
34
75
1K
The take that a Dem primary in a safely blue House seat in Cleveland is the most important race of your life is so scorching hot as to rival the Sun.
The @ninaturner race is most important of my lifetime. So I'm going to put in $25K to @RebellionPac, which is significantly painful for me, but we must win! Please chip in whatever you can to match that number. We're going to have super hard hitting ads:
25
62
902
I dug into polls to investigate just how much older voters may be moving away from President Trump. At least in national polls since April 1, the answer is “quite a bit” for 65+ & 55+ & “somewhat” for 45-64s/50-64s.
88
250
845
The farcical fraud claims are likely for show, but the problem is a huge share of the public believes them. So they damage faith in elections, the most fundamentally important thing we have. Without elections, we can’t choose leaders freely and fairly, or hold them accountable.
183
183
882
Trump is getting *a lot* more time to talk in this debate
92
230
877
Spoiler alert. Apparently people missed the part where Joe Exotic abused animals, preyed on 18-year old boys, became a total narcissist, and blew up his own alligator pen.
36
166
887
Obama bails out auto industry: Boo.Trump tries to keep Carrier in US: Yay. Almost like all that matters is party ID of pres in question. .
51
338
849
Whatever you think of impeachment, Andrew Johnson was impeached in March 1868 and his trial in the Senate happened in May 1868, six months before the next presidential contest. So this isn't unprecedented or something.
5
135
789
McLaughlin could be right in the end -- our forecast says there's a 10% chance President Trump wins. BUT this is also the pollster who had Eric Cantor ahead 34 points ahead of the 2014 GOP primary where the House Majority Leader lost by *11* to Dave Brat. So don't bet the house.
Trump pollster @JMcLghln is privately telling people that Trump is ahead in ALL the swing states – including Penn and Michigan, and tied in Wisconsin. I don't believe it. But if he's right, he's a genius. If he's wrong, I wonder if he'll ever work again.
35
88
834
BREAKING NEWS to @FiveThirtyEight staff, who always thought it was the number of electoral votes in the Electoral College.
18
47
846
Amazing how so many people seem to know how the GOP convention or the Kenosha situation will affect the polls. I would advise checking back in a couple weeks.
23
67
800
I was told blue lives matter.
8
157
747
Both Bill Clinton and Barack Obama had underwater approval ratings and bad midterms, yet both got reelected. Politics in 2021-22 doesn’t tell you much about politics in 2023-24.
New: Dems question whether Biden will actually run in 2024. "If Biden’s approval rating stays where it is, if we have a rough midterm cycle, if he can’t deliver on his entire agenda — is he still considered the most electable candidate?”. w/ @amieparnes .
79
82
742
I mean, that was *supposed* to be Kevin Faulconer. But the former mayor of San Diego could barely attract Republicans compared to Larry Elder, a conservative talk radio host. Says a lot about the state of the California GOP (and perhaps something about the national party base).
Kind of wonder what would have happened in California if Republicans had fielded a credible alternative to Newsom. Elder was a gift.
36
92
699
Hot takeL Every time a pollster includes Michelle Obama in a Democratic presidential primary poll, they should lose a grade point on 538.
11
44
711
A terrible idea. Terrible terrible terrible.
75% of Americans are for term limits. We instinctively know that time in DC makes you less connected with what is happening in your community. Term limits would also update our leadership. @Fwd_Party
27
37
712
If you're gonna try to burn a pollster for an old poll because you're mad about a national survey and accompanying battleground state polls showing your preferred candidate trailing, don't link to a poll of New York state.
Clinton Carries 17-Point Lead Over Trump Into Final Days – Siena College Research Institute
15
76
678
The June 27 debate was one of the most consequential political moments in modern U.S. history.
12
92
697
Because there a bunch of journalists aged 25 to 45 who don’t get his appeal?.
Joe Biden still appears to be the Democratic frontrunner, writes @IsaacDovere. So why does everyone say his campaign is doomed?.
40
95
632
Genuinely thought this was an April Fools joke. But then the New York Times wrote about it.
66
71
605
Biden has about a 10-point lead. Hillary Clinton+Obama never had avg leads that big, and it’s the biggest lead at ~4 months out since Bill Clinton was up 12 in ‘96. Biden’s the only candidate besides Nixon ‘72 & Reagan ‘84 to avg above 50% at this point.
25
198
617
Streisand Effect.
The ramp that I descended after my West Point Commencement speech was very long & steep, had no handrail and, most importantly, was very slippery. The last thing I was going to do is “fall” for the Fake News to have fun with. Final ten feet I ran down to level ground. Momentum!.
39
70
608
With help from my @FiveThirtyEight colleagues, we put my county benchmarks into an interactive. The vote figures are for a 50-50 race in a given state; if one side's doing better than them with many votes counted, that's a sign they may be ahead. Enjoy!
12
83
654
Rs are mad that Ds didn’t bail out McCarthy. But McCarthy also didn’t make overtures to them. More broadly, things have been poisoned since Jan. 6, when two-thirds of House Rs voted to reject the 2020 results, right after an insurrectionist mob had threatened members’ lives.
whether you think it's right or wrong, Republicans are going to exact revenge for a long while over the MTV vote. yes, it was an internal party squabble. but the GOP thinks Dems shouldn't have sided w Gaetz. remember: the majority controls the Capitol. Rooms, codels, etc.
6
74
618
Problem for Rs is that, unlike Clinton in 2016, most voters don’t think Biden is going to win. In fact, a small plurality usually say they think Trump will win. Harder to make the “check” case if voters aren’t confident you’ll be providing balance.
22
91
565
Some personal news. I'm thrilled to join @fivethirtyeight! I want to thank the @Center4Politics for being an incredible home for almost 7 years, and @LarrySabato, @kkondik, and others there for their help along the way.
Would prefer a slow moment in the news cycle to announce this but since that won't happen for the next 10 years. Thrilled to announce that Geoffrey Skelley (@geoffreyvs) has joined 538 as an Elections Analyst! He comes to us from the UVA Center for Politics. Welcome, Geoffrey!.
48
27
586
Yeah, those LCs living with three roommates to afford DC's rent should probably resign to *checks notes* get their boss, a senator, to resign. This is absurd.
24
33
594
Yep. Per @fivethirtyeight average, Trump+Biden = 93.5%. 57 days out in 2016:.Trump+Clinton = 82.6%.
Less interest in third-party candidates remains undercovered story line.
21
128
540
I looked at our historical polling data from 2016 as of same point 4 years ago & compared Clinton to Biden in our current averages. National:.Biden +9.1.Clinton +2.1. EVs based on where candidate led by >6.0 or safe for a party (not incl. NE-2/ME-2):.Biden 307.Clinton 198.
24
180
552
If Dems win the six close CA House races (which seems more likely than not), ME-2 (RCV probably gets it), and the others where they lead but are uncalled, and the GOP wins where they lead, the final House count will be 232-203 Democratic, which would be a D+37 result.
18
129
497
Al and John are like, "Alright Joe, guess it's about time we paid off that bet we made in 1987 about which one of us would actually win the presidency.".
Biden talks to Al Gore and John Kerry as the pivotal COP26 climate summit in Glasgow gets underway.
1
45
545
Good reminder that Georgia, one of the states Trump maliciously lied about regarding the conduct of its election, is run entirely by Republicans, who are ensuring a fair and accurate count of the vote cast.
4
86
506
1. A Capitol police officer dead.2. A gallows outside the Capitol.3. Chants of hang Mike Pence.4. Zip ties to handcuff people. A violent, treasonous mob who should be given no quarter.
12
77
520
Seeing a LOT of "is 2020 really any different from 2016" talk. Trump could win the election, but the polling story is unquestionably different. Compared to Clinton, Biden consistently has had a lot more support and his lead has been far more steady.
27
158
490
Selfishly as a lover of the history of Senate primary challenges, I want this.
NEWS: @joekennedy told a senior Dem this week that he’s considering a primary vs @edmarkey. And Markey sez he’s not retiring. Would set up an epic generational battle tween a 4+decade fixture of Mass politics & a scion of the state’s most famous family >.
20
47
456
I beg journalists covering this to stop using the word “protestor.” We are way past that.
11
87
491
With no evidence, sitting congressman rejects the popular vote result from a state that happens to be run entirely by Republicans. Guess Brooks is readying for a 2022 Senate bid if Richard Shelby retires.
IMHO, Joe Biden DID NOT win lawful vote majority in Georgia. Per its right & duty, Congress should reject any Georgia submission of 16 electoral college votes for Joe Biden. That is EXACTLY what I hope to help do. See below lawsuit for more! SORDID!.
18
87
453
Considering the near certainty of midterm loss for the president’s party, this doesn’t really add up. Pretty much regardless of what transpired, Dems were going to have a tough time holding Congress. So why not pass some stuff you want while you’re at it? Impossible w/o GA wins.
“The worst thing that happened to Biden was the Ds winning the two seats in Georgia. It raised expectations among some in his party that they could go left legislatively while the political sun was shining when in reality the political math was not there”
10
29
474
Unless turnout cratered in Prince William County -- see 2014 for why that is possible -- I think Spanberger will narrowly win #VA07.
10
45
479
Joe Biden's performance will only inflame concerns about his age and fitness for office. However, anyone seriously engaging with the question of Biden stepping aside needs to be frank about the fact that the nominee would likely be Kamala Harris. She's the VP, that's the move.
40
43
482
Hahahaha what? Winning is the goal, and beating two opponents in their home states could compel them to drop out. For Sanders, that especially makes sense regarding Warren.
Let’s call @BernieSanders latest campaign move, rallies in @ewarren and @amyklobuchar’s homestates, what it is: Shabby, says @GlobeScotLehigh. #Election2020 #SuperTuesday
17
34
470
McCarthy is RESIGNING, not retiring. Please fix your stories and headlines, they are not the same thing.
6
41
483
No no no no no — will people please stop misunderstanding party ID? Only ~10% of the electorate are “true” independents who don’t lean one way or the other. And leaners vote almost as solidly for their party as outward partisans do.
.@HeidiNBC on Schultz: In theory there's a good market for an independent candidate like a Howard Schultz. If you look at the polling data, 42% of Americans now identify themselves as independents, more than Democrats, more than Republicans… (1/2).
18
96
429
Anyone who thought otherwise has been asleep for 9 years, apparently.
Trump 2.0 is Trump 1.0.
5
49
459
Everyone does remember that Trump won Texas by 9 percentage points, right? NINE. Flipping Arizona, at Trump +3.5 in 2016, I can see. Texas going blue for president? I’m going to need a lot more than some House retirements to see it as in play.
Time for the GOP to start fully freaking out about Texas.
72
61
436
Perhaps one of the greatest architects of modern polarized partisan politics complaining about how nasty things are. Give me a break.
The increasing personal nastiness toward people who work for President Trump reflects the left’s understanding that they are losing. Nastiness reflects desperation not strength. They can’t win the argument so they use nastiness. Sad and dangerous.
5
81
394
Somehow Colorado, Oregon, Washington, and Utah manage to do all-mail balloting. Must be magic, based on some of the comments you hear.
24
77
436
Apparently this was the breaking point: Kari Lake now believes Katie Hobbs did win Arizona’s 2022 gubernatorial election.
NEW: Arizona Republican Kari Lake comes out against Arizona abortion ban. "I oppose today's ruling, and I am calling on Katie Hobbs and the State Legislature to come up with an immediate common sense solution that Arizonans can support.".
1
48
423
Coming into today, I thought that *maybe* a few Dems might vote present to save McCarthy, but every Dem voted to vacate. Multiple swing district Dems said they saw no reason to help McCarthy, so that well was quite poisoned.
7
31
438
This is the dumbest thing and it was apparently all over Twitter. Almost like we have exit poll data showing Biden with a massive lead.
Hey look, NYT says Joe Biden won South Carolina with 0% of precincts reporting!.
12
41
424
Joe Biden has been seeking the presidency since 1987, but sure, if he wins I'm sure he'll resign right after being inaugurated.
His handlers and the Fake News Media are doing everything possible to get him through the Election. Then he will resign, or whatever, and we are stuck with a super liberal wack job that NOBODY wanted!.
14
56
398
Hey @NateSilver538, I'd be willing to enter an undecided voter's mind to save you -- just remember that in the next round of annual reviews.
7
19
428
Gabbard voted present. Not that she was going to win the Democratic nomination but I'm going to guess that's not going to play well with most primary voters.
17
40
393
Don’t ask cutesy, silly questions at debates. If you’re worried about the lack of comity in our politics, ask a better question than using the words of an 8th grader saying she always sees politicians being mean. Politics ain’t beanbag.
10
37
380
They’re saying this in private but what they do publicly is all that matters — and if Trump wants Gaetz, I bet a lot of them will fold.
New from NBC News: More than half of Senate Republicans, including some in senior leadership positions, are privately saying they don't see a path for Matt Gaetz to be confirmed as Attorney General and would not support him to lead the Department of Justice. @MSNBC @JulieNBCNews.
17
42
438
I get DeWine wanting to close polls, but this is a highly problematic precedent. Using a public health crisis to close polls to do an end around of a court decision to keep them open is highly problematic.
21
98
374
Collective amnesia on the right. In the summer, I wrote an article about how experts were gaming out how Trump might try to stay in office despite the election, and many problems they foresaw have come to pass.
Toomey on if he regrets supporting Trump: “The president’s behavior after the election was wildly different than his behavior before, he descended into a level of madness and engaged in a level of activity that was just absolutely unthinkable,” he tells @jaketapper on @CNNSotu.
5
60
403
In other words, Biden waiting is totally normal.
From 1984-2016, 10 of 13 VP running mates were announced by presidential nominees less than a week before national convention began. Exceptions:.Bush-Quayle '88 (2nd day of convention).Kerry-Edwards '04 (20 days before).Romney-Ryan '12 (16 days before).
18
88
363
Note that Vancouver, WA, is the biggest source of Dem votes in WA-03 (which went about 50%-46% for Trump overall). Vancouver has ~200k people and is the main city in Clark County, a county that provided about 70% of all WA-03 Dem votes in 2020. Here's a 2020 pres precinct map:
5
51
374
The obviousness of this point is such that attempts to refute it basically make someone unserious.
MURKOWSKI: “If the end of a President’s term meant he or she would never be held politically liable for high crimes or misdemeanors committed while in office, the lame-duck period would pose a serious danger to the stability of the country.”
2
60
376
I get pissed off watching a five-minute cable news segment. Then I imagine being 75 and having it on my TV all day.
4
38
343
*Me screaming into the void every time a pollster includes Michelle Obama in presidential primary polls*.
4
14
356
Oh, does Sen. Cotton think partisan gerrymandering should be justiciable in federal courts? SCOTUS voted 5-4 in 2019 that partisan gerrymandering involved non-justiciable political questions, but it’d sure be fascinating to learn that Cotton disagrees.
If @TheJusticeDept cared about gerrymandering, they would sue Illinois. Merrick Garland's only concern is electing more Democrats. He should resign in disgrace.
12
42
355
In day-to-day terms, a pretty significant consequence of the election.
BREAKING: USDA announces free lunches for all students through 2021-22 school year.
2
44
361
Understandable take but it doesn't account for Biden's far higher overall support. Biden's around 50% in likeliest tipping point states; Clinton def wasn't. Here's what our polling average data says about 68 days out in 2020 vs 2016:
NRO: Right Now, Biden Is Underperforming Hillary in Battleground States
20
81
356
4
70
329
If Biden wins, what exactly would stop him from just having acting secretaries akin to President Trump?.
🚨 🚨 scoop: McConnell, if he keeps the Senate majority, plans to prevent Joe Biden from stacking his Cabinet with liberals and force him to go with centrist options, like Lael Brainard 4 Treasury, Tony Blinken for State, sources tell @mikeallen
26
32
334
Once this election is all said and done, I hope my fellow journalists don’t give a free pass to anyone who assisted efforts to subvert the 2020 election. Those people should be personae non gratae and things they say should be given no credence whatsoever in the future.
13
39
342
Many of the IN/KY county tallies so far include a large percentage of absentee/mail ballots, which we know are somewhat more Democratic than votes cast on Election Day. We need more votes before we can say something more substantial about what's happening in these places.
9
57
357
The bad faith here is remarkable. Georgia held a free, fair and transparent election -- Loeffler just didn't like the outcome.
Asked of @GovKemp & SoS role in election, @SenatorLoeffler says: “The buck stops with the Secretary of State. He is supposed to run a trusted, free, fair, transparent election. David Perdue and I have called for him to step down because Georgians have lost faith in our elections”
16
47
314
She’s co-chair of Biden’s campaign, so this would be a stunning development to say the least.
I do wonder what would happen if Gretchen Whitmer announced a Presidential race tmmrw. She’d soar past Biden in D Presidential primary polls in a few weeks. Question is: would the Gretchen-mania be big enough to drive Biden out of the race before SC? I think it might.
9
16
344
Seeing some bad takes comparing #IA02 recount situation to the pres election. The margin in IA-02 is .002 percentage points. That is *167 times smaller* than the .253-point margin in Georgia, the closest pres state. GA was close, but IA-02 is one of the closest races ever.
8
41
326
Wow, looks like the Dem in Oklahoma's 37th Senate District special pulled out the win by 31 votes. There'll be a recount but this is a pretty remarkable result in a Trump+39 (yes, +39) district.
15
137
291
Two polls with Clinton trailing in NH and now a tied poll there from Suffolk. The Blue Wall is cracking.
20
164
292
Obama has had about the worst downballot effect on his party of any modern president. ~1,000 state leg seats lost!
36
261
313
Seen this mistake today so here's a quick margin of error lesson:. Candidate A: 47%.Candidate B: 43%.Margin of error is ±3 pts. Is A's lead outside the MOE?. NO. A could have 44-50%.B could have 40-46%. MOE for the difference between A & B is ~2x the candidate MOE, so ~6 pts.
10
61
324
The world in which Christie drops out before NH could get interesting.
CBS News poll: Haley gains on Trump on New Hampshire: 44% Trump, 29% Haley
23
27
334
I can report that no house Republicans signaled they're retiring tonight -- because none voted for either impeachment article.
7
29
292
In 60 polls in 2024 that have tested both Biden-Trump and Harris-Trump head-to-head, Harris is running more in line with Biden now (and sometimes ahead) in state and national polls taken after the debate vs. before it.
16
66
323
INBOX: Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore Urges Nikki Haley to Quit. 12 votes (not a typo) in the 2016 Iowa caucuses will really go to your head.
9
29
329