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Political analysis at your fingertips. By @lxeagle17 , @HWLavelleMaps , @Thorongil16 , @politicsmaps , @maxtmcc | 🎤 ✉️ info @splitticket .org
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Split Ticket is an independent publication funded by us out of pocket, done in our spare time. It is and always will remain free — we don't believe in paywalls. Information should be free.
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RACE CALL:
Governor Andy Beshear, a Democrat, wins a second term as governor of Kentucky.
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5K
Democrats have retained control of the Virginia State Senate, denying Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin a legislative trifecta. Democrats have been projected to win 21 seats.
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4K
In Virginia’s SD-16 (Leans D) we project that Democrat Schuyler VanValkenburg will defeat incumbent Republican Senator Siobhan Dunnavant. This is the first Democratic flip of the night.
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Our Senate rating for the Georgia runoff begins at Leans Democratic.
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Race call: Democratic-aligned judge Janet Protasiewicz has defeated conservative Daniel Kelly for a seat on the court, flipping it to a 4-3 liberal majority.
Democrats flip the Wisconsin Supreme Court.
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RACE CALL: Pat Ryan (D) HOLDS
#NY19
(Biden +1.5) against Marc Molinaro (R) in a seat vacated by Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado, defying expectations of a red-wave Biden midterm flip.
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Democrat Donna Deegan wins in the Jacksonville, FL mayoral race, flipping the seat from the Republicans. Jacksonville is currently the largest city in the US with a Republican mayor, having a population of just over one million.
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RACE CALL:
With 88.5% of precincts reporting, Brandon Johnson takes the lead, securing his bid to be the next mayor of Chicago, defeating Paul Vallas. This represents a progressive victory over a police union-endorsed moderate in the nation's third-largest city.
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1K
Republicans have officially lost their majority in the Virginia House of Delegates. Democratic wins in HD-64 (Cole) and HD-84 (Clark) move the party up to 50 seats in the chamber. Democrats are expected to secure an outright majority soon.
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1K
Race call: Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) will win renomination with over 50% of the vote, obviating the need for a runoff.
This is a blow to former President Trump who focused his efforts on unseating the Secretary.
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Race call: Madison Cawthorn loses the GOP renomination for
#NC11
to state senator Chuck Edwards.
The beleaguered incumbent was hit with a series of scandals, and it looks like they have taken their electoral toll.
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RACE CALL - 8:46 PM
In Virginia's
#SD07
(D) Aaron Rouse will defeat (R) Kevin Adams, flipping the vacant Senate seat of (R) Congresswoman Jen Kiggans. This is an important victory for pro-choice Democrats in the Virginia Senate.
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RACE CALL:
Ohio Issue 1 passes, establishing constitutional abortion rights.
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With the selection of a new congressional map for Alabama,
#AL02
moves from Safe R to Safe D, bringing our House ratings to 211 D–202 R, with 22 tossup seats.
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In another big-city loss for Republicans, Colorado Springs appears poised to elect an independent, Yemi Mobolade, over a Republican. Colorado Springs has a Republican incumbent mayor, making this the second big-city flip away from the GOP tonight, in addition to Jacksonville.
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NEW
@SurveyUSA
/
@SplitTicket_
poll of Nebraska.
Donald Trump: 54%
Kamala Harris: 37%
#NESen
Deb Fischer: 39%
Dan Osborn: 38%
#NE02
results:
Donald Trump: 42%
Kamala Harris: 47%
Don Bacon: 40%
Tony Vargas: 46%
n=1293 RV, 8/23-8/27 (IVR/SMS2Web/Online)
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Split Ticket and
@DataProgress
partnered to poll the Rust Belt (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) twice.
The first time was when Biden dropped out. Kamala Harris trailed by 7.
Two weeks later, she leads by 1.
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In a stunning upset, Democrat Avi Schnall has won an assembly seat in New Jersey’s LD-30 (Trump +36) following an excellent performance in Lakewood.
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Race call: Democrat Tom Suozzi (D) wins the
#NY03
special election against Nassau County legislator Mazi Pilip (R).
Suozzi will take up the seat vacated by George Santos following the latter's expulsion.
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In New Jersey’s LD-03, Democrats sweep out Republican Senator Ed Durr and flip both Senate seats.
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Split Ticket can now project that Democratic-aligned Janet Protasciewicz will take one of the two spots in the nonpartisan primary to advance to the April general election for the
#WISC
Wisconsin Supreme Court race.
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The certified precinct results from the first round of
#AKAL
are below.
@MaryPeltola
came really close to winning outright - dominating all over the state, but especially so in the rural Bush region, where many precincts gave her near-unanimous support.
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The latest in our post-election map series.
Lee Zeldin produced an obliteration of Kathy Hochul in his native Suffolk County - even improving margins in heavily Democratic areas of Islip/the Hamptons. The linchpin of his 17-point win was his domination of working-class whites.
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Split Ticket presents a map showing the aggregate vote share of conservative and liberal candidates in Wisconsin. As predicted, Protasiewicz and Kelly will advance to the April 4th runoff, where the former will be the favorite, especially given the 8-point liberal win.
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In HD-21 (Leans D), Democrat Josh Thomas defeats Republican John Stirrup. In neighboring HD-22 (Leans R), Republican Ian Lovejoy projected to win. Democrats currently at 48 seats and expected to flip the House of Delegates.
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Lee Zeldin's gains were strongest among Russian American voters in south Brooklyn. These are concentrated in the 45th AD, in which 3 out of 4 voters picked Zeldin. His coattails were brutal for 20-year incumbent Democratic Asm. Steven Cymbrowitz, who lost with less than 40%.
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Jon Ossoff's victory in 2020 marked the first time Democrats won a full Senate term in Georgia since 1996, when Max Cleland narrowly beat Guy Millner by a similar margin.
As expected, the urban-rural divide heavily accelerated, with >70 point shifts occurring routinely.
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Race call: Doug Mastriano wins the Republican nomination for
#PAGov
and will square off against PA AG Josh Shapiro.
RATINGS CHANGE: Tossup -> Leans Democratic
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It's out! The results for the final round of the
#AKAL
election, in which
@MaryPeltola
defeated
@SarahPalinUSA
by ~10 points - are mapped below and verified by the state's Cast Vote Record.
Virtually everywhere except for heavily GOP Mat-Su was dominated by Peltola.
#akelects
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In Virginia’s SD-31 (Leans D) we project that Democrat Russet Perry will defeat Republican Juan Pablo Segura.
Democrat Danica Roem will also win neighboring SD-30 (Safe D) against Republican Bill Woolf.
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Following Mary Peltola's (D) victory over Sarah Palin (R) in Alaska's Congressional special election, we have a ratings shift to announce for November.
#AKAL
: Likely Republican -> Leans Republican
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Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear was reelected tonight by a five-point margin, flipping eight counties into his column and denying Kentucky Republicans a trifecta.
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Race Call: Progressive challenger Jamie McLeod-Skinner defeats incumbent Kurt Schrader in the Democratic Primary for
#OR05
.
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We've been unable to find a quality aggregator of *purely nonpartisan* public pollsters, so we went ahead and built one.
This is not a forecast, and it is not a model. It is simply meant to be an easy way of assessing what nonpartisan pollsters say.
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NEW
@SplitTicket_
House ratings!
DEM: 214
GOP: 211
Tossup: 10
Overall chances of control: DEM 58%, GOP 42%
Median Simulation: 219 Democrats, 216 Republicans
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First 2022 map from us.
Ryan Zinke narrowly won his return bid to the House in the new
#MT01
. Democrat Monica Tranel put together a coalition of Missoula/Bozeman liberals and Anaconda/Butte miners. Her weak showing in the Blackfeet Reservation/Glacier Co. cost her the seat.
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The latest in our post-election map series:
Pennsylvania's Josh Shapiro did so well in his race for governor, that he won back the ancestrally Democratic Luzerne County (Trump +14). Shapiro's win here ran through blue coal towns and the heavily Hispanic city of Hazleton.
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ICYMI, our 2024 ratings for the House and Senate.
HOUSE: 209 DEM, 207 REP, 19 Tossup
SENATE: 51 REP, 47 DEM, 2 Tossup
Presidential ratings will launch soon.
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🚨FORECAST UPDATE (House)🚨
As their position on the generic ballot improves, Democrats now have 2:1 odds of taking the chamber back. The median simulation is now 221 DEM - 214 GOP.
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From our SHAVE methodology piece today by
@politicsmaps
, here's a map of how each state *trended* from 2020 to 2022 at the congressional level. Very difficult to say that Republicans had anything other than a colossal midterm flop relative to expectations.
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In case you missed it: a week ago,
@MaryPeltola
won a ranked-choice special election to become the 1st Democrat representing Alaska in Congress in 49 years, defeating
@SarahPalinUSA
.
Her strength in Alaska Native areas, as well as in Anchorage and Juneau, put her over the line.
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Our 2024 Presidential model: Kamala Harris currently has a 62% chance of winning the election.
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GOV RATINGS CHANGE:
Florida: Likely GOP ➡️ Safe GOP
This one does not merit a full article, but the financial and campaign resources of Charlie Crist and the Florida Democratic Party are simply insufficient to mount an operation that has a >5% chance of beating DeSantis.
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Repost: by the required supermajority, the House passed a bipartisan resolution to expel former Representative George Santos from the legislative body. Nearly all Democrats and a near-majority of Republicans joined to expel only the third representative since the Civil War.
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The latest in our post-election map series.
Evan McMullin posted the best Senate performance for a non-Republican candidate in Utah since the 1970s - powered by a big shift among more moderate and secular Mormons. This is most apparent in Salt Lake County, which he won by 19.
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Our initial Presidential ratings are out, with both parties within striking distance of winning the White House in 2024.
Democrats: 247
Republicans: 219
Tossup: 72
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RATING CHANGE
#MDGOV
:
Likely Democratic -> Safe Democratic
With far-right candidate Dan Cox's primary win, the Maryland GOP have made their task a lot harder against the Democratic nominee (quite likely to be author Wes Moore, who would be the state's first black Governor)
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Donald Trump leads Joe Biden by 1 point in a new poll conducted by
@SplitTicket_
and
@DataProgress
.
Donald Trump: 41%
Joe Biden: 40%
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr: 10%
Cornel West: 1%
Chase Oliver: 1%
Jill Stein: 1%
N=2,067; fielded online, July 1-3
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Split Ticket can confirm that Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron (R) will soon be announcing a gubernatorial bid to challenge Democratic incumbent Andy Beshear.
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Split Ticket October Governor Ratings Changes:
5 towards Dems, 2 towards the GOP
AK: Safe R ➡️Likely R
CO: Likely D➡️Safe D
GA: Lean R ➡️Likely R
ME: Lean D ➡️Likely D
MI: Lean D ➡️Likely D
OR: Lean D ➡️Tossup
PA: Lean D ➡️Likely D
Read ⬇️ for details!
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🚨MODEL ALERT🚨
Introducing our 2024 House of Representatives model!
DEM: 211
GOP: 211
TOSSUP: 13
Odds of winning the majority: GOP: 56%, DEM 44%
Read the breakdown here 👇
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NEW survey from
@SplitTicket_
, exclusively surveying voters 18-29:
Joe Biden: 35%
Donald Trump: 25%
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr: 23%
n=227 LV, 3/19-3/21
This is part of a larger experiment. Read more here:
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The latest in our post-election map series:
Minnesota Democratic State Sen. Tom Bakk retired this year - leaving a reddening Iron Range seat in some danger. However, Hermantown city councillor Grant Hauschild (D) narrowly beat Babbitt mayor Andrea Zupancich (R) to hold the seat.
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Did the GOP's fervent anti-vaccination plank cost them any elections in and of itself due to extra excess COVID deaths?
The answer is actually "Yes". From
@notkavi
and
@lxeagle17
:
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RACE CALL:
Dan Knodl, a Republican, appears to have won the special election for
#SD08
, maintaining a State Senate supermajority for the Wisconsin Republicans. That result relies on the gerrymandered legislative maps, which could be redrawn under the new liberal court majority.
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Today, voters head to the polls in
#NY03
, where Mazi Pilip (R) faces off against Tom Suozzi (D). Our model finds Suozzi a favorite based on the available data, but with room for an upset.
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Projection: Don Bolduc defeats State Sen. Chuck Morse and others to win the GOP Senate nomination in NH, and will face Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan in the fall.
Current Rating: LEANS DEMOCRATIC
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Louisiana is a safe GOP state these days, but it took a while for the realignment to stick. As recently as 1990, three out of four voters were registered Democrats. The only police jury ward with a plurality GOP registration was St. Tammany's 4th, home to suburban Mandeville.
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🚨Ratings Change🚨
#MTSen
: TOSSUP -> LEANS REPUBLICAN
The 2024 map is tilted heavily in favor of Republicans. While Democrats may get bailed out by the candidate quality part yet again, it is a significantly harder lift for them this time around.
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RATINGS ANNOUNCEMENT
VA
#SD07
Special Election
Biden +10
Youngkin +4.3
TOSSUP ➡️ LEANS D.
(D) Aaron Rouse vs. (R) Kevin Adams
Image Credit:
@vpapupdates
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Struggling to attract single women? Well…so is the Republican Party. From
@macrotargeting
, on an underexplored divide in the electorate
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Quick role updates for the 2023-24 cycle!
@HWLavelleMaps
: House ratings
@macrotargeting
: Gubernatorial ratings
@Thorongil16
: Senate ratings
@LXEagle17
: Presidential ratings
This has been a really enjoyable first cycle -- thank you all for your support. Reflections coming soon!
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Split Ticket Projection:
Issue 1, a measure to raise the threshold to amend Ohio’s state constitution, fails. This is a major victory for the pro-choice side ahead of this fall’s abortion rights referendum.
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We’re excited to announce the addition of Max McCall (
@maxtmcc
) to the
@SplitTicket_
team. Max is a wonderful and extremely promising analyst whose work we have occasionally featured and followed closely for a while, and we couldn’t be more excited to add him on.
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In Minnesota, Tim Walz has maintained a strong lead and is far outraising GOP challenger Scott Jensen.
In Texas, Greg Abbott continues to receive a slew of polls showing a mid-single digit lead.
And in Kansas, no candidate polls above 48%, and a 3rd party spoiler has emerged.
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In the Wisconsin Supreme Court's nonpartisan primary, Split Ticket can now project that Republican-aligned Daniel Kelly will advance to the April general election to face the Democratic-aligned Janet Protasiewicz, setting up an R vs D proxy election for control of the court.
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The borough results tell the same story - Peltola got over 61% in Anchorage, crossed 40% in Kenai Peninsula, and even got a third of the vote in Mat-Su. The heavily Alaska Native areas in the Bush were overwhelmingly Democratic, with 97% Native Kusilvak voting >90% Peltola.
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36 years ago in 1987, Nancy Pelosi won her first election to Congress over Republican Harriet Ross. Endorsed by outgoing Rep. Sala Burton (D), Pelosi ran strongly in every area of the district except for some wealthy areas which were more Republican-leaning at the time.
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Race call: The referendum to limit abortion rights fails in Kansas -- "NO" looks set to win.
Both sides had poured millions into this race, but even with a strongly Republican-leaning electorate, the referendum appears to have failed.
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🚨SENATE UPDATE🚨
Republicans remain clear favorites to flip the Senate, with a 75% chance of winning an outright majority, but Florida moves to Leans R and Nebraska moves to Likely R in our model.
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With Arizona finally being called, we can do our initial statewide postmortems for
@SplitTicket_
.
Senate: 34/35 races called correctly (missed Pennsylvania)
Governor: 34/36 races called correctly (missed Arizona and Wisconsin).
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In New Jersey’s SD-03, incumbent Vin Gopal will win re-election against businessman Steve Dnistrian. This is an important hold for Senate Democrats.
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Election denial is really, really unpopular. We take a look at the Secretary of State races for some proof.
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Following Bernie Moreno’s victory in the Buckeye State’s GOP Senate primary, we’re moving Ohio back into the Tossup column. Read about our evaluation of Brown’s path to reelection here:
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GOV RATINGS UPDATE:
South Dakota: Safe GOP ➡️ Likely GOP
Normally safely GOP, it isn't anymore because of:
1. Candidate quality
2. Downballot elasticity
3. Polling factors
By
@Thorongil16
and
@lxeagle17
with maps from
@cinyc9
. Read more to find out!
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Dan Kildee was a very strong incumbent in his Clinton +1/Biden +2 seat. Here are his
@SplitTicket_
Wins-Above-Replacement scores.
2018: D+4
2020: D+2
2022: D+6
Without Kildee, this battleground seat (initially rated Likely Democratic) is likely to get a lot more competitive.
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Race call: St. Rep. Summer Lee defeats Steve Irwin, the candidate of the Allegheny County Democratic organization in
#PA12
.
This call comes after a new ballot drop from Allegheny showed Lee maintaining an expanded 41.8-41.2% lead.
A major win for progressives with OR-05.
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Split Ticket presidential battleground poll aggregator (Sept. 21): (± Sept. 20)
MI: D+2.7
WI: D+2.2
[PA]: D+1.8 (+0.2)
NV: D+0.7
NC: D+0.3
AZ: R+0.4
GA: R+1.4
USA: Harris +2.9 (-0.1)
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Tonight, Allegheny County re-elected Steve Zappala as District Attorney. Zappala, formerly a Democrat, ran for re-election as a Republican after he lost the primary to challenger Matt Dugan.
Dugan mainly depended upon core Pittsburgh while Zappala won off of suburban strength.
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History suggests Larry Hogan, like past Governors, will make a good Senate candidate. Just not good enough to win in Maryland.
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🚨NEW POLL🚨
Joe Biden: 37
Donald Trump: 39
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr: 11
WITH LEANERS:
Joe Biden: 40
Donald Trump: 41
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr: 16
n=847 RV/821 LVs, with an oversample of 300 voters aged 18-29.
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Using our
@SplitTicket_
SHAVE methodology, this is how each state trended congressionally between 2018 and 2022, after adjusting for uncontested results.
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Final Gubernatorial Ratings
From
@Thorongil16
AZ: TOSSUP to LEAN R
CT: LIKELY D to SAFE D
KS: TOSSUP to LEAN D
NM: LEAN D to LIKELY D
NV: TOSSUP to LEAN R
OR: TOSSUP to LEAN D
SD: LIKELY R to SAFE R
TX: LIKELY R to SAFE R
WI: TOSSUP to LEAN R
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Wards in Chicago's Southside are lagging in reporting and are expected to favor Johnson. Additonally, late-counted, mail-in ballots skewed against Vallas relative to those counted on election day in the first round. Johnson should expand his lead as these votes are counted.
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Democrat Paul Moriarty wins the open Senate race in the 4th district. Democrats also expected to hold both Assembly seats.
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Throwback Thursday - in lieu of an article, we bring you a map.
@PeteButtigieg
's first major race was his 2010 bid for Indiana Treasurer - and it ended in defeat.
Later on, Mourdock's career ended with a failed 2012 Senate run, and Buttigieg has done pretty well for himself.
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