Harrison Lavelle
@HWLavelleMaps
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Might have another upset brewing. In
#WA03
Perez leads Joe Kent 53-47% with 54% reporting. Most outstanding votes in Clark portion, which was Biden +5 & currently Perez +18. Kent also underrunning Trump in Cowlitz (Trump +18, Kent +4).
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Simple answer based on how everything is going at the moment suggests Democrats hold the House. Wouldn’t be too surprised. It’s going to take a while before there are enough official calls to indicate that, but the trend seems clear.
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Yes, Democrats can hold the House without
#CO03
. Below is a map of uncalled races (NYT) with my estimates for how they are leaning. In my 218-217 scenario, Ds need OR-05, CA-41, WA-03, CA-22, and CA-27. If they win AZ-01, they can afford to lose Salas or Smith. It's tight!
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Update in
#CO03
where Democrat Adam Frisch has upset controversial Republican Lauren Boebert in a LIKELY R race. There just doesn't seem to be enough in Mesa to outdo Pueblo, and the whisperer himself
@GalenMetzger1
has seen enough.
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My follow-up map: A tale of two Democratic Georgias. The coalition change here is simply fascinating. Both are roughly two-point Democratic wins, which is why I thought the comparison would be worthwhile.
#ElectionTwitter
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Using the list of seats from
@ECaliberSeven
I've created a tracking spreadsheet with results from NYT. If these probabilities were to be final, CA-41 would decide the House. It's the district we have the *least* certainty in currently.
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I’ve seen enough. Kent isn’t getting the splits he needs to beat Gluesenkamp Perez. Once it’s officially called the Pacific Coast will be a line of blue.
NEW update in
#WA03
, Clark County ballot results:
@MGPforCongress
: +7,419
@joekent16jan19
: +7,401
Net is D+18
#waelex
#MidtermElections2022
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Here goes another one *probably*. In NC-13 (Biden +1.7) Wiley Nickel leads Bo Hines 52-48% with 78% reporting. It appears that the vast majority of outstanding ballots are in Democratic Wake (Nickel +37, Biden +22) Even if Wake tightens, I don't really see a path.
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Unless the remaining ballots in Clark break heavily for the Republicans and Kent expands his lead in Cowlitz, I think I'd actually rather be the Democrats in this LEANS R race. Let's see.
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How is it possible? Democrats would need to sweep the competitive pacific coast races. Still a lot of votes out right now which is why there's uncertainty in CA13, CA22, CA27, CA41. In AZ, as
@GalenMetzger1
pointed out earlier, late ballots could help put Ds over in AZ06 and 01.
Simple answer based on how everything is going at the moment suggests Democrats hold the House. Wouldn’t be too surprised. It’s going to take a while before there are enough official calls to indicate that, but the trend seems clear.
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As Ethan has mentioned, Ds need to win all but three of these districts to hold onto the House. It's looking like a serious possibility.
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CNN needs to use colors that look distinguishable.
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#CA22
estimates reposted with corrected labelling. Until we get another dump, a 58-42D break in the outstanding Kern ballots might be enough to put Salas over the line. Successive drops have trended toward the Democrats here.
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Update on
#NY18
where Democrat Pat Ryan will win a full term. Schmitt ran a close race and outperformed Trump's baselines, but he has supposedly conceded. Leftover votes in Orange seem to be mail-ins, which will probably break for Ds.
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Apparently these DDHQ numbers are final in
#NM02
(Biden +5.9) where Gabe Vasquez appears to have defeated Republican Congresswoman Yvette Herrell by just 1,014 votes in a race rated LEANS R. NYT yet to update its count.
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Chabot is barely outrunning Trump's baseline in Hamilton and Warren is >95% reporting. He seems done if things keep developing like this.
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In 1984, Bill Bradley was reelected to the Senate in a landslide. This occurred as Reagan swept the Garden State in its entirety. Some truly impressive split-ticket voting from the political vault.
#ElectionTwitter
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Debate is looking good for Kemp. That's all I'll say.
"If you hadn't lost your race, we wouldn't be in this mess"
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#PA07
Carbon County just upped to 95% reporting. Too close to call, but it seems like Wild could actually pull this off. NYT has 10,000 votes out between Lehigh and Northampton compared to just 2,000 in Carbon. Upset watch in a LEANS R race.
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One of the greatest upsets I've witnessed. Senate President Sweeney lost to Edward Durr. Since I do not yet have 2021 Muni data I am comparing 2017 Senate to 2020 President (probably similar results). My article on the race is out tomorrow with
@Elections_Daily
#ElectionTwitter
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Day 1: Illinois-3 - This year progressive Democrat Marie Newman significantly underperformed Dan Lipinski's bloated 2018 margin in the district. Please follow the thread below for detailed analysis of this fascinating Chicago-based district.
#ElectionTwitter
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Time to eat my words. I overcooked the trends and underestimated Kaptur's crossover appeal, particularly in parts of the district unfamiliar with her. I'll accept the criticism. Tried to make the case as best I could, but I looks like we are on track for a modest D win.
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#CA22
estimates show Rudy Salas still has a good shot at victory. If the remaining Kern votes break 58-42 D, and everything else remains constant, Salas would pull ahead. Exact numbers are still outstanding, but Valadao could be in trouble if the drops keep trending Democratic.
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Since Little easily won renomination, the AG result might get more attention. Ex-Congressman & Gov. candidate Raul Labrador absolutely clobbers Lawrence Wasden, who has been the incumbent since I was born.
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#OR05
Next Clackamas drop is scheduled for release at 6 PST/9 EST. Clackamas (Biden +15) accounted for 43% of the 5th's 2020 vote. NYT county estimate is 60% reporting. In other words, Democrats still have a clear lane depending on how the results break over the next few days.
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In 2006, Senate control was decided in Virginia. Fmr Navy Secretary Jim Webb beat Senator George Allen, ending his '08 Presidential ambitions. The race came on the board after Allen's infamous "macaca moment" in August. It is seen as the beginning of blue VA.
#ElectionTwitter
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Republican Steve Chabot lost reelection this year for the second time in his career. He first fell in 2008 against Democratic state representative Steve Driehaus in the 1st (Obama +11). Crossover wasn't enough to save him then, but he did win a 2010 rematch.
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Updates from
#CA22
today, where Rudy Salas has reduced Republican incumbent David Valadao's lead to just 5 points. The margin in Kern County, where most of the outstanding ballots are, moves to D+5. 64% of the 2020 vote was cast in this part of the district.
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One of the more prominent Republican pickups in the House last week came in Minnesota-7, where former Lt. Gov. Michelle Fischbach defeated Ag Chairman Collin Peterson, the long-time incumbent, bringing an end to an era of 30 years of Peterson.
#ElectionTwitter
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Here are the 1st vote returns from the 2021 German Election by election district.
Hier sind die Erststimmenanteile in allen Wahlkreisen.
#ElectionTwitter
#Deutschland
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(NYT) In
#MD06
, Republican Neil Parrott has been ahead since Tuesday night. Be wary of what you see. Democrat David Trone should win a comfortable majority of the remaining ballots in Montgomery, which would put him ahead. We should get updated numbers today.
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In 1984, the "Bloody" 8th was the scene of a political showdown. Congressman Frank McCloskey defeated St. Rep. Richard McIntyre by just 4 votes.
#ElectionTwitter
Dedicated to
@cinyc9
@Thorongil16
@AndrewPEllison
(Thread below)
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Democratic State Treasurer John Perdue is currently West Virginia's only statewide Democratic row officer. He won re-election against Ann Urling in 2016, far outrunning Presidential nominee Hillary Clinton.
#ElectionTwitter
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In the House Elections of 1862-1863, Democrats netted 27 seats from a backlash to the ongoing Civil War and President Lincoln's threats of emancipation. Despite the significant midterm losses, the GOP held its majority in coalition with MO & KY Unionists.
#ElectionTwitter
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Going to move my +5 estimate down to +2 for Molinaro, who seems to be on track for a Dutchess victory. Have to account for Ulster too, but Ryan is still in this.
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In the 1894 red wave, future Assc. Justice Mahlon Pitney won a reliable Cleveland district against Democratic incumbent Johnston Cornish of Warren County. Rs netted 110 seats amid the turmoil of the Panic of 1893 and the Pullman Strike, a blow to Cleveland.
#ElectionTwitter
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This suggests that the Pima spread I posted with last night’s numbers will hold up in
#AZ06
. Kind of seems like a matter of time to me before Engel overtakes Ciscomani…
I’ll be updating that spreadsheet momentarily.
Pima county dropped I guess, Netting Hobbs 5000+ votes, and Halving Juan Ciscomani's Lead in AZ CD 6 to 1382!!!!!
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West Virginia's lone Democratic row-officer, Treasurer John Perdue, lost re-election to State Rep. Riley Moore last month. While he obviously outran Joe Biden, his performance was down from 2016 everywhere except Kanawha County, which actually swung left.
#ElectionTwitter
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Today
@EdTheTruckerNJ
begins his term in the State Senate. Last year he defeated Senate President Steve Sweeney in one of the Garden State's biggest ever political upsets. Ciattarelli helped to carry him over the line in a big way.
#ElectionTwitter
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In
#AZ01
, Democrat Jevin Hodge maintains a slight lead over Republican incumbent David Schweikert after the last Maricopa update. 86% reporting now according to the NYT. It’s unclear whether his lead is large enough to survive the next few updates. Let’s wait for the breakdowns.
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#AZ06
Engel took about 58% of the last Pima batch. If she were to win the remaining Pima vote with that share and all other outstanding votes broke based on current county margins, Democrats would narrowly win. The key here is whether next few Pima dumps get redder.
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Retiring Congresswoman Cheri Bustos had a close call last year, but her previous two wins were lopsided in the otherwise marginal 17th. She won every county and took 62% against conspiracy theorist Bill Fawell in 2018, running up some impressive rural numbers.
#ElectionTwitter
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Here is the second round of the 2020 Polish Presidential Election, a very close contest. Incumbent President Andrzej Duda was reelected over Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski. One can see Germany's former territorial extent well in this political divide.
#ElectionTwitter
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In 2018, Congressman Jared Polis defeated Treasurer Walker Stapleton by a significant margin in his bid for Governor, running up the score in the greater Denver region along with "ski-country". This map is a perfect example of "land doesn't vote".
#ElectionTwitter
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Ratings change in AK coming in tomorrow’s article!
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Despite significant Trump wins at the federal level, ticket-splitting carried Tim Walz, Collin Peterson, and Rick Nolan to closer-than-expected reelections. You can literally see the overperformance on the map, particularly in the 7th.
#ElectionTwitter
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In 2014, Majority Leader Eric Cantor lost a stunning upset to Dave Brat. This grassroots victory was arguably the greatest triumph for the Tea Party, as Cantor was next in line to become House Speaker. Critics claimed he had "gone Washington".
#ElectionTwitter
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NYT has updated the numbers in
#CO03
, which now show Democrat Adam Frisch leading Republican Congresswoman Lauren Boebert by just 73 votes. We won't know the outcome of this race until we get the next Pueblo drop. Really a waiting game in every sense of the word.
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In 2016, IL-10 Republican Bob Dold put up a tough reelection fight but lost his rematch to Brad Schneider. He easily outran then-candidate Trump, who was not viable in the seat, but it ultimately was not enough to hold this former Republican bastion. (Lake, Cook)
#ElectionTwitter
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One of the best examples of ticket splitting in 2008 came in Missouri. SoS Carnahan won re-election by 26 points while McCain carried the state by less than 1. Carnahan's gigantic win brought urban and rural voters together in a way we won't see anytime soon.
#Electiontwitter
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Ciattarelli did well in blue Passaic and Bergen counties earlier this month. Excluding the handful of northern Bergen municipalities that got bluer, Republican numbers improved across the board. Take Paterson, where the R vote share rose from 8 to 14%.
#ElectionTwitter
#NJPol
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Even better for Democrats, it seems that 49,179 remaining number I calculated with rough estimates this afternoon is in fact an undershoot!
Pima County has tabulated 19,689 ballots
Est. 53,397 remain (87% complete)
Batch breakdown
Governor
@KariLake
36.1
@katiehobbs
63.9
Senate
@bgmasters
33.3
@CaptMarkKelly
65
AZSOS
@RealMarkFinchem
34.4
@Adrian_Fontes
65.6
AZAG
@AbrahamHamadeh
36.8
@krismayes
63.3
186
509
3K
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@ErinGlabets
Rs are holding better in NY than nationwide. Had they not done so well there, the Democratic path in the House would be *a lot* clearer atm.
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In 2016, one-term Republican Mark Kirk lost re-election to Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth. Kirk had a difficult first term, facing a stroke in the middle of his tenure. In a solid Clinton state he was a strong underdog in his re-election bid.
#ElectionTwitter
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We’ve got a new set of House ratings changes today. All of them favor the Democrats. Stay tuned for our official 2024 models in the coming weeks.
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Given how everything else tonight has gone tonight, I think everybody knows exactly how
#AKAL
is going to go assuming Peltola doesn't win outright...
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For the third and final time. In 2018 Senator Klobuchar was reelected to her third term. She carried all 8 congressional districts, even 6 and 7. She outran Clinton by 13.8 points and carried over forty counties also carried by Trump.
#ElectionTwitter
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Last month,
@JRMajewski
defeated St. Rep. Craig Riedel and St. Sen. Theresa Gavarone to win the nomination for Ohio's new 9th district. He faces long-time Democrat Marcy Kaptur this November.
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Earlier this month, Congressman Van Taylor was forced into a runoff against Ex-Collin County Judge Keith Self. After revelations of infidelity involving a so-called ISIS bride, Taylor ended his reelection campaign. He had previously been branded a RINO.
#ElectionTwitter
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In
#AZ06
, Republican Juan Ciscomani is also underperforming Trump in Greenlee. (Trump +34, Ciscomani +27)
Blake Masters underperforming Trump by 16 points in ancestral Dem mining land of Greenlee County, AZ.
Holy crap.
It's a tiny county, but really says something about Mark Kelly's rural appeal.
Long Live the Morenci Miners!
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888
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In 1984, Democrats held their majority in the Garden State's House delegation. As a result of mid-decade redistricting, Republicans ousted Joseph Minish. Special thanks to
@Thorongil16
&
@AlexODiazNV
This is a new era. Two other NJ 80s maps will be this week.
#ElectionTwitter
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One county in New Jersey that swung significantly toward the Democrats this election was Hunterdon County, located just to the west of Somerset. Joe Biden carried two Trump 2016 towns and trimmed Trump's margins in every municipality.
#ElectionTwitter
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Key House Races - 7 PM
GA-02 (D - Bishop) LEANS D
IN-01 (D - Mrvan) LEANS R
VA-02 (D - Luria) LEANS R
VA-07 (D - Spanberger) LEANS D
VA-10 (D - Wexton) LIKELY D
Stick with me for updates on results + analysis.
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One of the best examples of red wave ticket splitting came in 2010, when popular incumbent Governor Mike Beebe easily secured reelection as Congressman John Boozman swept incumbent Democrat Blanche Lincoln in the Senate race.
#ElectionTwitter
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In Bibb, Warnock seems to have won 63-37% compared to his 61-37% win in November. Another overperformance in the books. Turnout falls from 54,007 to 49,062.
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The Democrats have made up for their lack of rural White support by mobilizing educated traditionally-Republican voters in diversifying Atlanta metro suburbs while simultaneously hitting record margins in metro area counties like Fulton and DeKalb.
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One of the most rural districts currently represented by a Democrat is Maine's 2nd. It's currently held by Jared Golden, a moderate who won by 1% in 2018. Golden is favored to win reelection this cycle against Dale Crafts.
#ElectionTwitter
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100
And with
#AZ01
looking good for Schweikert, it becomes harder to see a Democratic House majority.
Regardless, the party should consider it a success that it came so close to holding the chamber after being written off for the whole cycle.
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NJ-Gov vote reporting seems to have stopped for the night. Here you have the vote share percentages by county for both candidates in 2017 and 2021. A difference column measuring the current shift in margin is provided along with a % reporting column.
#NJPol
#ElectionTwitter
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#MD02
(Biden +20.6) is currently closer than its partisan lean would suggest. Democrat Dutch Ruppersberger has been projected winner in this SAFE D seat. Important to note that a lot of mail-ins in the state will be counted today.
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Somerset County is one of the best examples of the rapid suburban shift toward the Democrats that has swept much of North Jersey. Once a Republican stronghold, Somerset's new Democratic brand solidified during the Trump Administration. Thread below ->
#ElectionTwitter
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Everything that could've gone wrong for the GOP's statewide candidates in Maryland went wrong last night.
Also a shoutout to
@maxtmcc
for correctly predicting all of the statewide contests.
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We have more of Cobb now (54%) and Warnock still leads the county 65-35% compared to his 57-41% win last month. A solid bulwark to have as more election day votes are counted.
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EV numbers look predictably good for Warnock in the Cherokee, Fulton, and Douglas -- all in the Atlanta Metro area. Very possible we see blue Fayette tonight as
@lxeagle17
predicted in the
@SplitTicket_
model.
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Between
#AZ01
and
#AZ06
, it’s pretty clear at this point that Republicans will take the House by a thread.
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Gerry Connolly flipped the open 11th in 2008 after long-time Republican Tom Davis retired. This was a near miss for Democrats in 2010, when the wave almost put Fimian over the top in a rematch. This Fairfax/Prince William-based district is no longer competitive.
#ElectionTwitter
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13
93
In 1984, 5th district Congressman Tom Harkin defeated Republican incumbent Roger Jepsen. Running a populist grassroots campaign, Harkin did well throughout the state. Despite winning, Reagan did poorly here. Harkin comfortably outran Mondale.
#ElectionTwitter
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88
Some fascinating ticket splitting. In 1994 Governor Ann Richards fell victim to George Bush Jr in her bid for re-election. On the same day Lt. Governor Bob Bullock was re-elected easily, winning nearly everywhere.
#ElectionTwitter
(Thread below)
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@GalenMetzger1
If they win AZ01, OR05, or WA03 on this map (all of which I gave to Republicans) the path gets a lot easier.
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93
Not sure I'd call a Democratic majority in the House the most probable outcome anymore, but it's still possible. Here's how I personally see it playing out.
There will be more discussion about this in tomorrow's
@SplitTicket_
article.
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Waiting for more numbers out of DeKalb and also Cobb. The lack of returns from both is making the race deceivingly tight right now.
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92
The last rural Democrat in the Texas State House was Joe Heflin. He won stabily in 2008 even as national Democrats like Obama performed poorly here. In 2010, Heflin, and his fellow rural Texas Democrats, were defeated.
#ElectionTwitter
10
16
91
In 2008, Tom Perriello pulled off one of the big upsets of that House cycle by narrowly defeating incumbent Virgil Goode. Perriello lost in 2010 like many incumbent Democrats, but he performed far better than most pundits expected.
#ElectionTwitter
5
18
89
Opposite story in
#AZ06
, where Democrats are in the overtaking lane. Engel's edge in Pima jumped from D+7 to D+8 following the latest release.
@ECaliberSeven
's rough estimate for taking the lead (assuming current splits remain constant) is about 8.3 iirc. Keep an eye on this one.
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86
In
#MT01
(Trump +6.9) Ryan Zinke *could* lose to Democrat Monica Tranel in a race rated LEANS R. He's underperforming across the board, including in Flathead (Trump +30, Zinke +14) atm.
@GalenMetzger1
might get moth
#MT01
and
#CO03
right. I've become increasingly convinced too.
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88
In 1990, future House Speaker, then Minority Whip, Newt Gingrich was nearly defeated by Democratic Attorney David Worley. Worley came just 974 votes from winning his rematch against Gingrich, and history could've been quite different had he succeeded.
#ElectionTwitter
5
7
88
VA's 'traditional' coalition may have faded, but this quick map shows the leftovers under the hood. In the southwestern part of the state Senator Warner "the man of the hills" performed much better than Biden. Gade did slightly better than Trump in NOVA too.
#ElectionTwitter
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In
#AZ01
, we expected remaining Maricopa drops to be more R leaning -- but tonight's release didn't benefit Schweikert that much. Hodge's lead only fell from 1.7 to 1.3 and it's uncertain whether the incumbent can catch up *if* the remaining spreads break similarly.
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These aren’t official
@Ticket1Split
ratings, but since I’m working with House here’s how we view the double-bunking primaries so far:
IL-06 (Tossup)
MI-11 (Tossup)
GA-07 (Likely McBath)
MI-04 (Likely Upton)
IL-15 (Lean Davis)
WV-02 (Lean McKinley)
Thread below on our thoughts:
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Republicans had two closer than foreseen races in 2006. In two solidly Republican districts, NE-3 and WY-At Large, credible Democratic candidates put up extremely tough fights. Cubin and Smith both held the seats for the party in the end.
#ElectionTwitter
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14
84
The four "driftless" region house seats all swung toward the GOP this year. Two were held by Democrats, but by much narrower margins than in 2018. Both Ron Kind and Cheri Bustos had the narrowest wins of their careers in what had been considered Likely D races.
#ElectionTwitter
6
12
85
Following the latest set of ratings changes,
@SplitTicket_
officially favors Republicans to retake the House without any Tossups picked.
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82
@lxeagle17
and myself are proud to introduce the 2022 House wins-above-replacement (WAR) model for
@SplitTicket_
We now have a way to judge candidate performance relative to data-based expectations. Many of these results shouldn’t surprise you:
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86
Here’s the map! Please give my article a read for our reasoning. Lots of good work went into it. Special thanks to
@JMilesColeman
also.
Check out the final House forecast for
@SplitTicket_
where we are predicting a 234-201 R majority.
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81
IN-01 (Biden +8) and OH-13 (Biden +3), both rated LEANS R, go to Democrats Frank Mrvan and Emilia Sykes. Summit (Biden +9.6, Sykes +12).
Lake (Biden +15, Mrvan +12)
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