Ethan C7
@ECaliberSeven
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23 | Elections Nerd | Moderate Democrat | Part Time Optimist | Full Time Skeptic
New Jersey, USA
Joined August 2019
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With Election Day 7 weeks away, switching my Personal Ratings Updates to monthly.
All indicators now point to a ~D+3 year - JUST above what Dems need to win House & Prez, but not by much. Both remain TOSSUPS.
Data clearly shows a competitive, but LEAN R race for Senate control.
Personal Quarterly Ratings Update:
With the polls showing a slightly blue year and the WA primary portending a pretty blue year, Dems seem to be at least slightly favored to flip back the House.
The presidency remains a tossup, and the Senate competitive but leaning toward Rs.
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Tbh, a 218/217 House, in either direction, is increasingly looking like one of the most likely, if not *the* most likely, outcome for the House atm.
Absolute chaos, no retirements allowed, shenanigans everywhere, every person can swing a vote.
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BREAKING: TikTok declares it would rather shut down and forgo billions in profits rather than cut loose from CCP control.
Incredibly rational behavior that definitely doesn’t give the entire game away.
TikTok's owner ByteDance would prefer to 'shut down' its app in the US rather than sell it if all legal options are exhausted - Reuters
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Once again, the United States missing a fantastic opportunity to brain drain our biggest geopolitical rival.
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If Biden steps down, history better record that it was three freaking weeks of Democratic friendly fire that tanked his polls enough and drove the nail into the coffin.
Biden immediately post-debate was consistently ~3% away from victory. Everything since was pure self-sabotage.
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This is a bit of a taboo on Election Twitter, but I actually do believe in "reverse coattails".
Not in the "I don't like Mark Robinson, so I won't vote Trump" way, but more "I see a Harris/Trump ad. Meh, don't feel like voting. I see a Robinson ad. Holy cow, I need to go vote."
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The State of Play:
With the likely reelection of both Mark Kelly and CCM, Dems have likely kept the Senate.
In the House, the field has changed. To win a majority, Dems now need to win all but one of: AZ-01, AZ-06, CA-13, CA-22, CA-27, CA-41, WA-03. Difficult, but doable.
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It's long past time to seriously contest Texas and Florida.
Putting all the Senate eggs into the Montana basket looking dicier by the day.
New MONTANA poll from FabrizioWard (R)/Binder Research (D) for the AARP:
Senate
Tester (D-inc) 45
Sheehy (R) 51
Tester 41
Sheehy 49
Daoud (L) 4
Downey (G) 1
Pres
Trump 56
Harris 41
Fav/unfav
Tester 43/52
Sheehy 48/45
600 LVs, 8/25-29, mixed mode
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It took five days for the Dems' generic ballot lead to double from 0.1 to 0.2. Extrapolating out to Election Day, Democrats should be on track to win the election by ~26214%, enough to win not only every seat in the House, but also claim an electoral mandate over Canada as well.
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One state we DESPERATELY need a poll of rn is Texas.
Back when Biden was tied or down a couple points, Texas polls were roughly Trump+7 to 9, w/ Cruz running a few points behind. Theoretically, with the nation currently at ~Harris+3, Texas and its Senate race might be close atm.
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With the latest Maricopa votes in, Jevin Hodge (D) retains his 1.6% lead in AZ-01.
Not what Schweikert (R) wanted to see.
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The state of play right now:
Dems seem to be on track to hold the Senate as good ballot returns flow in for both Kelly in AZ and CCM in NV.
In the House, to pull off the impossible, Dems need to win all but two of: AZ-01, CA-13, CA-22, CA-41, CA-45, CO-03, OR-05, OR-06, WA-03
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The idea Dems outperformed in 2022 due to disproportionate Democratic turnout is *provably* false basically everywhere.
In almost every state we have the data for, the GOP turned out at a significantly higher rate than Dems - Dems held up cuz they persuaded tons of swing voters!
A big reason Dems beat pundit/historical expectations in the midterms? Only 112M people voted, including a disproportionate turnout among voters angry at Dobbs/abortion bans (many of them young/female).
But there will be ~160M voters in 2024. So who are those extra 48M voters?
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Periodic reminder that CBS/YouGov only conducts a NATIONAL poll, and that these state-level numbers are MODELED ESTIMATES derived from their polls, not actual polls of those states.
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Senate be like:
Day 69: *does nothing*
Day 70: *does nothing*
Day 71: *casually passes a massive change to American life via unanimous consent*
Day 72: *does nothing*
Passed by Unanimous Consent, S.623: Sunshine Protection Act, as amended (to make Daylight Saving Time permanent)
@SenRubioPress
/
@SenWhitehouse
/ others
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Gotta say, the early media narrative that young Dem turnout is responsible for the midterms is actively harming ppl’s understanding of what happened.
It is important to emphasize that GOP extremism swung the election via persuasion, not progressive policy motivating Dem turnout.
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Big "Never Jordan" rep converts to "Actually, Jordan is fine" rep.
Precedents are being set if Jordan wins: in every Speaker election henceforth, the far-right can & will force the GOP to pick their guy, by voting everyone else down on the floor.
And the conference will cave.
As a result, I have decided to support Jim Jordan for Speaker of the House on the floor. (2/3)
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Wondering whether Biden should take a trip to Anchorage during the 2024 campaign.
You know, not because he can win it, or that it’d be worth much even if he did (3 electoral votes), but for the sake of the Dems’ longterm prospects, which look surprisingly decent there.
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Like many others, I think the Dems have a real shot at retaining their House majority.
By my count, Dems have 187 seats, and need to win all but 3 of:
AZ-01, CA-09, CA-13, CA-22, CA-26, CA-27, CA-41, CA-47, CA-49, CO-08, OR-05, OR-06, WA-03, WA-08
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It’s kinda funny that, of Arizona’s two new senators, its the bisexual wig-sporting former Green Party activist that’s the spiritual successor to John McCain.
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The State of Play:
Barring a freak result in the final NV ballots, Dems have won the Senate.
In the House, Dems have a clear path to a majority via AZ-01, AZ-06, CA-13, CA-22, CA-41, WA-03, each of which they have at least even odds to win, w/ a backup in CA-27. It'll be close.
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Re: “why did Dems perform best in swing districts/states, and badly everywhere else?” There’s a pretty simple and obvious, if unproven, explanation here: Democratic campaigns worked.
For the most part, where Dems campaigned and aired ads, they did well.
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Holy s*** tonight is the bluest wave in New Jersey I've seen since 2018. Freaking 20% victory for Vin Gopal in Biden+13 LD11.
And to think, the NJ GOP was talking about winning a chamber this year.
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NE-02: Tossup -> Lean D
The polling is consistent and clear. Bacon’s getting fried.
New CNN polling:
NORTH CAROLINA
Trump 48
Harris 48
NC-Gov
Stein (D) 53
Robinson (R) 36
NEBRASKA 2nd
Harris 53
Trump 42
NE-02 House race!!
Vargas (D) 50
Bacon (R-inc) 44
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The silly "FL/TX Senate are too expensive" arg needs to die.
#1
: Unless Dems want to bet the Senate ENTIRELY on MT, they MUST contest FL/TX.
#2
: If its expensive for Dems, it's also expensive for Rs. Theoretically, expensive races favor the party with more $$$ - thats the Dems!
It's long past time to seriously contest Texas and Florida.
Putting all the Senate eggs into the Montana basket looking dicier by the day.
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IF this holds - and that's a VERY important IF - this would imply a roughly D+5 House vote environment. That's be a few points BLUER than the 2020 House environment!
WA primary results so far clocking in at D+17 based on NYT
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Look, it sucks that we lost our trifecta. It really, really does.
But as far as consolation prizes go, permanent GOP chaos has got to be up there.
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Regarding House control, right now, I’m watching for two more things:
1. How Jevin Hodge’s lead fares after tonights (Disproportionately R) Maricopa dump in AZ-01
2. Whether the next CA-41 vote dump favors Rollins.
If both are good, House control would narrowly favor Dems imo.
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In the eyes of Dems, I feel that Florida suffers from a similar stigma to Ohio - Dems have been burned there so often, that they'd rather take shots at other redder states than compete there again.
However, its not obvious that TX is a significantly easier lift for them than FL.
Senate polling by Emerson/The Hill
FLORIDA
🟥 Rick Scott (inc): 46%
🟦 D. Mucarsel-Powell: 45%
—
TEXAS
🟥 Ted Cruz (inc): 48%
🟦 Colin Allred: 44%
—
OHIO
🟦 Sherrod Brown (inc): 46%
🟥 Bernie Moreno: 44%
—
CALIFORNIA
🟦 Adam Schiff: 55%
🟥 Steve Garvey: 33%
#9
(2.9/3.0) |
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I'm going to freaking laugh so hard if Dems somehow retain their House majority, and Sean Patrick Maloney, the DCCC chair, isn't part of it.
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And with that, the Michigan-Wisconsin-Pennsylvania path, all of which Harris leads in polls by ~2%, remains open as her likeliest path to victory.
BREAKING: The GOP push to change how
#Nebraska
awards its Electoral College votes and boost former President Donald Trump ran into reality Monday as a key lawmaker, State Sen. Mike McDonnell, announced he won't back a change.
First in
@NE_Examiner
:
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In Clark County, NV, the combined House vote atm is D+4.7%, while CCM is winning it by 5.9% and Sisolak is only winning it by 3.9%.
These margins will go up as more votes are counted, but it does seem at the very least that Laxalt was a below avg GOP candidate.
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Periodic reminder that, using 538’s poll avg, the 2020 polling error in the following states was:
AZ: R+2.3
GA: R+1.0
MI: R+5.1
NV: R+2.9
PA: R+3.5
WI: R+7.8
If a Dem is leading way outside the range of the 2020 polling error (cough MARK KELLY cough), that lead’s probably real.
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What a night! With most of the vote in, Democrats have overperformed in every special elex tonight, ranging from 7% in the NH state House redo election, to 23% in KY!
Add onto that their 9% overperformance in LA on Saturday, and the avg swing from 2020 Prez now sits at ~D+5%!
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I’d like to point out the irony that Sean Patrick Maloney left his old district to get a marginally better chance of holding his seat, only for Democrats to hold his old seat while he got demolished in his new one.
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If Republicans take a super narrow majority (as seems to be the case atm), and GOP leadership is thus is chaotic disarray, wonder if Dems may be able to pull off some wins via discharge petition, by picking off a few Rs to support individual pieces of legislation.
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I remember in the final stretch of the campaign, a ton of Democrats (myself included) were disappointed Biden wasn’t doing more to expand the map and kept going full guns blazing in states like Wisconsin.
Hoo boy, his campaign was a lot smarter than we might give it credit for.
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Harris and Trump tied, Kaptur+10, and Brown+13 in Trump+3 OH-09 👀
If the swing here translated statewide, would imply Trump+5, Brown+8 in Ohio.
Consistent with other polls showing a MASSIVE lead for Sherrod Brown atm, with some room to spare when polarization kicks in.
🚨New
@insideelections
/
@NoblePredictive
poll of Ohio’s 9th has some good news for Democrats post-Harris switch
Kaptur (D-inc) 47
Merrin (R) 37
OH-Sen
Brown (D-inc) 49
Moreno (R) 36
Pres
Harris 46
Trump 46
July 22-24, 435 LVs, live caller/text, +/- 4.7%
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Honestly amazing watching the spirit of poll denialism drift from the Democrats to the Republicans in real time.
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And with that, Anthony D'Esposito (NY-04) remains the
#1
most vulnerable Republican in the House, representing a Biden+14.5 district on Long Island that, for the time being, seems unlikely to get redder enough for him to have a good chance of surviving imo.
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Recently, some folks have asked me where donations would best help Dems flip the House. IMO, there exist clear answers: four Dem challengers in Tossup races with MUCH less $$$ than their GOP opponents:
1. Marlinga (MI-10)
2. Tran (CA-45)
3. Shah (AZ-01)
4. Bynum (OR-05)
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It’s official! With 100% reporting, Democrats Nichols and Keith have locked Republican VanNorman out of the runoff for the Tulsa Mayoral, autoflipping the 48th largest city - and one of the largest GOP-held mayoral offices - to the Democrats!
Caveat that I haven’t followed this race at ALL, but with 70% reported for the Tulsa Mayoral, looks like Nichols (D) and Keith (D) might be able to lock VanNorman (R) out of the runoff.
If Rs get locked out, that’d be an autoflip of the 48th largest city (400k pop) from the GOP.
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Watch Democrats somehow freaking hold the House.
It’ll be close, but it’s not impossible now. Depends if Dems get lucky in a TON of close House races like NE-02, NC-13, etc.
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Holy cow - I was looking through Minnesota’s candidate filings, and as far as I can tell, not a SINGLE weed party candidate has filed for Congress or state leg.
Which makes sense, given that MN has now legalized weed. But that’s a MASSIVE electoral weight off the MN Dems’ backs.
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Periodic reminder that no, Biden is not down in Michigan polls because of Israel/Gaza - Arabs literally make up at most 2% of the Michigan electorate.
He is down because he is down nationally, and thus down in almost every swing state.
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Getting blown out by 96% is one thing.
Still managing to lose second place to the Crystal Ball lady as a sitting congressman tho - Dean Phillips could wipe out a whole city from second-hand embarrassment.
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Uncommitted has dropped below 15%.
If I had to guess, I think it ends up around 12% in the end, right around the uncommitted vote share against Obama in 2012.
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Right now, the next place to watch imo is Clackamas County, OR, to see if Dems can still put out a win in OR-05.
Conditional on Democrats winning OR-05, Democrats will likely reach at least 217 seats imo, and would even have a nonzero shot at 219 - one more than a bare majority.
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It’s 100% official now.
AL-02: Safe R —> Safe D
🚨NEW: Alabama agrees to dismiss its appeal to SCOTUS of the ruling striking down its 2023 congressional map. Filing here:
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Thinking about how, if Democrats win the House, it’s going to be off the backs of like a dozen different flukes.
I said in the summer that Dems could win the House in an EVEN environment if they got lucky. It’s now looking like ~R+1, but with Dems getting EXTRAORDINARILY lucky.
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Trump+20 Culpeper County, VA is 95% in according to NYT in VA-07.
Vega+20. Extremely good for Spanberger.
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Pulling from
@cinyc9
’s map, looks like all the remaining votes in AK-AL are almost exclusively from the super blue parts of the state. Anchorage and Fairbanks are finished counting.
Peltola’s vote share should increase quite a bit when the final votes are counted.
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Despite doing 1.4% better than Biden statewide, not only did Tim Ryan fail to win back Mahoning County, he actually did 1.6% WORSE there.
The Mahoning Valley is *gone* for Dems.
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Tfw relative Philly turnout drops 11.4%, to a point where Biden would've lost in 2020, and yet Fetterman still wins by 5%.
Or when Lehigh and Monroe turnout drops a ton, yet Susan Wild and Matt Cartwright survive anyway.
Dems did absurdly well w/ white swing voters, man.
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Imma be real, accusing JOE FREAKING BIDEN of having a cult of personality is one of the wildest claims I’ve ever seen.
However, this IS Dean Phillips we’re talking about. So from his perspective, I can see why Dean would think that.
NEW: Dean Phillips tells crowd in Manchester he will not be the No Labels candidate, that he is a Democrat. And he would not draw votes from Trump, as he thinks is needed.
But he BLASTS the DNC and WH.
Called it a “cult of personality around Joe Biden - it is so destructive.”
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Woah! MS Dems putting up possibly their strongest candidate for the gov race.
Brandon Presley has been a member of the three-person MS Public Service Commission since 2007. While he wasn’t contested in 2019, this is his 2015 reelection map.
Very uphill, but a real challenger.
Mississippi deserves leaders who fight for our families, children and workers rather than themselves and their rich friends. We deserve leaders who will never forget where they came from or who put them in office.
That's why I'm running for Governor of Mississippi.
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YOOOOOO! House Dems are officially putting their money behind flipping the narrow Trump seats of IA-01, WI-01, and WI-03 - with WI-03 getting an especially large $4 million investment behind it.
I've always held these as underrated battlegrounds - time to see how it turns out.
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.
@MorningConsult
released their senator approvals today, so here's how they compare to 2020 Prez for senators up in 2024 (who haven't yet retired).
Notably, Tester takes first by a mile, sporting +30% approval in Trump+16 MT, w/ Manchin coming in 2nd despite his -16 approval.
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Its so routine that its hardly worth mentioning, but its still kinda amazing that, every time Trump actively turns off swing voters via scandals/insanity, the GOP rallies behind him instead of attempting to dump the electoral anchor that is his candidacy.
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Game over for Lake, and game over for Hodge.
Dems win AZ Gov. GOP wins AZ-01.
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Taking bets: how much does Mary Peltola win by in the end?
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Took em long enough.
If Democrats still want a chance to hold their Senate majority, and let a President Harris actually legislate, this is the only way.
It’s Florida and Texas time, folks.
Scoop: Dems are prepping a late offensive in the Florida Senate race, we’re told.
With Montana looking shaky, Dems see Florida as ripe for a surprise pickup.
Peters told us today he wants to get resources into both Florida and Texas. w/
@HansNichols
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Doing some calculations right now, and I’m like 95% sure Tony Evers narrowly carried WI-03 in his reelection bid.
Ron Kind totally could’ve won reelection 🙃
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Dang, with that latest Alaska drop, Mary Peltola’s gonna head into RCV with nearly a straight up majority of the vote.
Non-zero chance that she wins after round 2 (I think there’s still a few ballots left).
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Re: CA-22, looking at the data, I'm pretty sure Salas is favored to win.
While Salas has fallen short of benchmarks in the last few batches, ballot return data imply that future batches will become MUCH bluer, and that has already borne out in the batches so far in every county.
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For reference, the GOP is only going to get 52.9% of the combined House vote in Montana thanks to these two.
Very cool and strong nominees.
MONTANA. The dust is barely settled from the 2022 elections, and already hearing buzz that both of the state’s congressmen - Matt Rosendale (R) and just-elected Ryan Zinke (R) - plan to jump into race vs US Sen Jon Tester (D). Crowds already forming for their House seats.
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BREAKING: Michigan GOP replaces party leader who lost statewide by by 14% with a new party leader who lost statewide by 21%.
Pete Hoekstra has won today's vote for new party chair of the Michigan GOP. Kristina Karamo has said she remains "undisputed" chair of the state party, so...
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And thus Dark Brandon commanded the hurricanes: “Shut up for a while, Jack. I need the gas prices to stay low this November.”
"Hurricane Alley Hasn’t Been This Quiet in a Quarter Century"
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Again, do you know how big a dumpster fire a female candidate’s campaign must be for the National Organization for WOMEN to be endorsing their MALE opponent?
Especially when they’ve got a national board member of NOW constantly shilling for their campaign on the bird app?
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Periodic reminder that Michigan's State House map was 56-54 Trump, yet Democrats flipped it anyway in 2022.
Make no mistake: the Wisconsin Assembly WILL be competitive this year, for the first time in over a decade.
Breaking: Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers (D) has signed new, fairer legislative districts to replace the GOP's gerrymanders.
The Senate has an 18-15 Biden majority; the Assembly is 50-49 Trump.
Interactive versions:
Senate:
Assembly:
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Periodic reminder that the Legal Marijuana Now party of Minnesota is actively why Minnesota is unable to legalize weed, due to them costing Dems control of the state Senate.
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Imma be real, it’s looking more like a “red ripple” night so far than a “red wave”.
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Despite being a Democratic midterm, there were quite a few states House Dems actually outperformed their 2020 margins in, while the GOP notably swept through FL and NY.
After accounting for uncontesteds, this is how each state swung from 2020 House -> 2022 House.
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We’re gonna need to rewrite the narrative of 2020.
Went from Democratic catastrophe to Democratic trifecta.
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Final results are in, and Dems win Trump+0.4 NH Rockingham 1 by a whopping 12%!
With this, Dems are practically guaranteed to tie the NH State House, with a chance to outright FLIP it if they win another special election in a Trump+8 seat in a few months.
Unofficial results in NH House special election, Rockingham County Dist. 1: Democrat Hal Rafter: 1,571 (55.9%) and Republican James Guzofski: 1,250 (44.1%). Hold the phone: When Rafter sworn in, it's GOP: 198 to Dems: 197.
#nhpolitics
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When people saw the NYT poll w/ a 14% lead for Sharice Davids in Biden+4.5 KS-03, people either assumed it was wrong or that the burbs zoomed left.
Turns out, Davids got her largest overperformances in the red rurals, beating Biden by 11%-12%, compared to ~7% in the burbs.
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Brief rundown of the irony incarnate that is Sean Patrick Maloney.
> Leads Dems to a historically good performance, yet loses himself
> Kicks out a fellow Dem for a bluer district, only for Dems to hold his old one as he loses his new one
> Ends up being seat
#218
for the GOP
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Assuming the injunction on the line isn’t successfully appealed, today’s events confirm two things:
1. Tammy definitely made the right call getting out early - she was TOAST w/out the line
2. Andy’s line lawsuit is one of the greatest political masterstrokes in NJ history
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FIRST OPEN CONVENTION GOES TO ANDY!
With that, Andy wins the county line in Monmouth, an incredibly embarrassing loss to the First Lady, who lives in the county, and a crucial sign to other committee members that Senator Tammy is not inevitable.
🚨ANDY KIM WINS THE MONMOUTH DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION🚨
Will have numbers soon. Huge, huge news.
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Periodic reminder that mathematically, North Carolina is not trending Democratic, and people of Election Twitter should really know better.
2012:
Nation: D+3.9
NC: R+2.0
Lean: R+5.9
2016:
Nation: D+2.1
NC: R+3.7
Lean: R+5.9
2020:
Nation: D+4.5
NC: R+1.3
Lean: R+5.8
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FWIW, my two cents on replacing Biden is that, given the only realistic alternative in Kamala Harris, the potential upsides arent clearly worth the chaos of starting over w/ 4 months left on an infamously awkward flop.
It's a gamble only worth making if you think Biden's doomed.
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HOLY S***!!!!
ANDY KIM DEFEATS THE MACHINE!!!
(I chose a very poor time to be hanging out with my friends, offline from the bird app)
🚨🚨🚨
Scoop: Tammy Murphy is dropping out of the U.S. Senate race in New Jersey.
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Re: CA-27, there are currently ~1 mil unprocessed ballots left in LA.
Assuming an even distribution, there are ~80596 votes left to count in CA-41, meaning Smith needs to win 59.7% of them to make up her 15633 vote deficit.
For reference, Smith got 56.5% of the last batch.
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Super important question downballot: does Harris get a home state bonus in California?
There’s enough Democratic targets there to flip the House on California alone - including three in double-digit Biden seats, and upwards of seven who are potentially vulnerable.
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In Fulton County, OH, Marcy Kaptur is currently outrunning Tim Ryan marginwise by about 18%!!! 👀
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So, if Warnock wins tonight by a larger margin than November, as expected, wonder if the GA legislature finally abolishes the runoff.
I assumed they’d do that after the 2021 runoffs, but instead they cut the runoff period by a month, which ironically seems to bs helping Warnock.
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Reminder that the super predictive poll Selzer’s famous for is her final one.
However, EXTREMELY obvious why Democrats are currently going all in on contesting IA-01 and IA-03.
Their internals must be similar to what Selzer’s currently telling us - Iowa’s looking good for them.
📊 IOWA GE:
@jaselzer
/
@DMRegister
🟥 Trump: 47% (+4)
🟦 Harris: 43%
🟨 RFK Jr: 6%
🟪 Oliver: 1%
Last poll vs Biden (6/14): Trump +18
#12
(2.8/3.0) | 656 LV | 9/8-11 | ±3.8%
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Everyone’s already pointed this out, but while this an okay poll for Monica Tranel, who’s still within range of flipping MT-01, it’s absolutely catastrophic for Jon Tester.
Tester needs to carry MT-01 by ~9% to win. A 1% lead implies he’s down high single digits statewide.
🚨New
@InsideElections
/
@NoblePredictive
House battleground poll, in MT-01:
Zinke (R-inc) 47
Tranel (D) 43
Hayes (L) 3
MT-Sen
Tester (D-inc) 45
Sheehy (R) 44
Daoud (L) 3
Barb (G) 1
Pres
Trump 49
Harris 43
Oliver 2
Stein 1
432 LVs, 9/11-14, ±4.7%
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This race is over. Congrats to MGP.
NEW update in
#WA03
, Clark County ballot results:
@MGPforCongress
: +7,419
@joekent16jan19
: +7,401
Net is D+18
#waelex
#MidtermElections2022
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“In the 19 district-specific polls conducted after the June 27th debate, Frontliners and Red to Blue candidates remained resilient, with no poll showing atrophy in their support from prior instruments.”
OH SO NOW THEY ADMIT THE DOWNBALLOT WAS FINE
New DCCC memo cites polling that has Frontline Dems leading R challengers by avg of 8 points.
Plus, memo predicts “renewed enthusiasm from Democratic and independent voters, voters of color, and younger voters.” Harris effect?
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There does not exist a rating category stronger than Safe. But if one existed, North Carolina Gov would certainly qualify for it - Robinson practically doesn’t even have a campaign anymore.
I've confirmed that
@markrobinsonNC
is down to just three campaign staffers -- there were more resignations beyond the four senior campaign staffers named in today's announcement:
#ncpol
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The funny thing about ppl pointing to OR Gov regarding a three way race is that it proves the exact opposite case.
Johnson’s spoiler candidacy turned what should’ve been a comfortable D victory into a 3% race. And AZ is a Biden+0.3 state.
Dems need to make sure Sinema retires.
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Ya know, the Andy campaign is now sitting on a MASSIVE cash pile that they no longer need.
Given that NJ-07 will prob be the only competitive federal race, and also STRONGLY supported him during the conventions, here’s to hoping he invests a lot of those funds into the district.
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I'm not the first to mention this, but the fact that Beshear is running >30% of every of the Democrat, in a Trump+26 state, is a VERY bullish sign for him.
Would much rather be Beshear atm.
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