Leon Sit
@politicsmaps
Followers
2,804
Following
163
Media
227
Statuses
3,129
薛利安 • UCLA '25 • managing editor, graphics @SplitTicket_
North Tustin, CA
Joined February 2019
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
Project 2025
• 420748 Tweets
石丸構文
• 91112 Tweets
CONGRATULATIONS JIMIN
• 67808 Tweets
Parkinson
• 65820 Tweets
Big Boy
• 48335 Tweets
Luna Bella
• 43907 Tweets
Djokovic
• 38941 Tweets
PROUD OF YOU JIMIN
• 32348 Tweets
Novak
• 31161 Tweets
Rune
• 30912 Tweets
Wanda
• 27975 Tweets
不要不急の外出
• 26485 Tweets
Branthwaite
• 20146 Tweets
#ラヴィット間違い探し
• 18580 Tweets
Doja
• 17354 Tweets
プール中止
• 10900 Tweets
花江ちゃん
• 10630 Tweets
The US Census Bureau released 2022 population estimates today. We can roughly project what the 2030 reapportionment will look like using linear extrapolation over the next eight years to determine population estimates for April 2030 and the apportionment formula to assign seats.
76
211
1K
At this rate, Democrat Katrina Foley will win her OC Board of Supervisor's race. Combine this with the other two D-on-D races, and you get a 3-2 Democrat majority in Orange County's top executive body, the first establishment of Democratic control since 1976.
19
134
1K
For the first time in history, a Speaker of the House of Representatives has been removed from power. 8 Republicans joined with Democrats to vacate the speakership.
Here's a map of the vote:
22
159
716
Today, Alaska implemented its ranked-choice voting system to show that Mary Peltola, an Alaskan Native Democrat, won the state’s special congressional election by a 2.9% margin.
She succeeds Don Young, the representative for the state from 1973 until his passing earlier in 2022.
12
107
637
(Repost) HR 8404 passed the House today, with 47 Republicans joining with a united Democratic party to affirm the right to a same-sex marriage as established by Obergefell v. Hodges (2015) and to repeal the 1994 Defense of Marriage Act. The vote tally was 267 - 157.
21
108
562
Colorado Springs has an independent leading in it's nonpartisan mayoral race. This is another large city with a Republican incumbent mayor.
Mobolade (I): 65,791 – 57.5%
Williams (R): 48,570 – 42.5%
7
67
521
Earlier today, former Korean Prosecutor General Yoon Suk-yeol (윤석열) was elected to the presidency, narrowly flipping the position from the Democrats in a victory for the conservative "People Power" party. The election map below shows the intense regional political differences.
5
98
483
In the first abortion-related vote following the Supreme Court's overturn of Roe v. Wade (1973), Kansas rejected the GOP-proposed constitutional amendment to allow Topeka to legislate on abortion. "No" won 93.6% of President Biden's record 2020 vote total in an off-year primary.
8
75
438
Yesterday, the Labour Party of the United Kingdom flipped the Westminster City Council for the first time since the establishment of Greater London in 1965, toppling the former 41 - 19 Conservative supermajority and ending 48 years of unbroken Tory control in the heart of London.
5
43
378
I ran the numbers, and here would be the changes to congressional reapportionment if the post-enumeration survey errors were applied to the 2020 census.
Texas +1
Florida +1
Tennessee +1
Minnesota -1
Colorado -1
Rhode Island -1
Idaho almost gained one (at expense of Tennessee!)
23
75
379
Caught wind of a Republican-backed bill to split Maricopa County into four new counties. Here's a look at what it would do, politically.
22
48
329
Kentucky data now shows that registered Republicans outnumber Democrats, likely for the first time in the history of the commonwealth, despite it having last backed a Democrat for President in 1996. This is because many rural voters kept traditional registration while voting GOP.
12
58
312
Ohio Issue 1 and Issue 2 both passed yesterday, with similar margins but different coalitions. The maps below show how Issue 1 (abortion) was significantly more polarizing than Issue 2 (cannabis) and also present the regional differences between the coalitions.
10
63
309
Here's a cartogram showing the makeup of the House of Representatives following the 2022 election.
You can clearly see the geographic bases of both parties. Democrats hold strongholds on both coasts, while nearly a majority of incoming House Republicans hail from the South.
7
52
300
Yesterday, voters in
#NE01
elected a new Republican congressman (
@Flood4Nebraska
) to replace the disgraced Jeff Fortenberry by a narrower-than-expected margin for a district President Trump had won by 11%. Supercharged turnout in Lincoln was beaten back by intense rural margins.
9
55
291
Yesterday, Sweden elected a new parliament, and the results couldn't be any closer. The "incumbent" coalition led by the Social Democrats lags behind its opposing right-wing coalition by just one seat, with some uncounted votes. Here's a map and a chart.
#valet2022
8
59
284
Not anymore! Today I fulfilled the requirements to be a write-in candidate for the June primary.
@PhillipChenCA
will have an opponent this November!
15
18
273
@tencor_7144
because politicians and the policies they make can have a significant impact on tbe communities they represent, and losing an election can have huge effects on the lives of millions. e.g. if ~30k people changed their minds in 2016 I think the world today would be very different.
1
1
264
Yesterday, Orange County delievered a crushing blow to recall proponents by handing down an insurmountable margin of anti-recall votes. Here's a map of the all the votes that were counted on election night! Note that an additional ~35k votes will affect the results.
21
54
258
Lake Forest (pop. 85,742) is now the latest OC city to flip to a D registration plurality
8
27
259
Orange County finally completed counting the votes from the recall election! Here's a redo of my original map, now showing final results. Many precincts flipped between voting "Yes" and "No", with the general trend helping narrow the countywide result.
15
43
250
With WA-03, CA-47, and CA-49 swinging in favor of Democrats, this will most likely be the first cycle where Democrats win all congressional districts touching the Pacific Ocean.
Made possible by flips in Alaska, Washington, and redistricting placing OC's coast with Irvine.
7
23
257
Last month in California, State Senator Brian Dahle won Orange County against incumbent Governor Gavin Newsom, flipping the country's sixth-largest county Republican for the first time since 2014. Here's a map of the third consecutive narrow gubernatorial election result.
17
62
247
Less than one-sixth of Michelle Steel's new CA-45 constituency was in her coastal, white-majority district in the previous congress. This new Asian-plurality district narrowly sent her back to Washington after an especially bitter campaign that involved ethnic politics.
8
35
236
In 2022, the tipping-point seat for House control was IA-03, which Republicans won by 0.69% as they won the national popular vote by 1.59%. This means the House maps actually had a small Democratic bias, as the median seat leaned just under a percent to the left of the country.
7
32
233
The CA Redistricting Commission just released its final congressional maps, which control the districts in which the state's massive 52-member (formerly 53) congressional delegation is elected. Here's an overview of the before-and-after political landscapes of the Golden State.
12
54
231
On March 1st, the Biden midterms were kicked off with primary elections in Texas. The highest-profile race was a congressional primary election between Henry Cuellar and Jessica Cisneros. Each candidate represents the moderate and progressive wings of the Democrats, respectively.
6
43
221
Here are two maps showing the largest religious denomination in each county. You can immediately spot some regional differences, but there are some nuances that should be kept in mind. There differences once played a more decisive role in elections, but have since levelled out.
17
55
207
Glenn Youngkin was able to end a twelve-year Republican dry spell in Virginia in large part due to his grade-A electoral performance in NoVA, an affluent, diverse, and well-educated region which had favored President Biden by nearly forty percentage points exactly one year ago.
6
42
221
(TEMPORARY) In 2004, Bush outpaced Kerry nearly everywhere on his way to a 20-point victory in Orange County. His 222k vote margin was the largest in the entire country, beating out Texas suburban powerhouses. Bush won every Congressional District, even Hispanic-majority CA-47.
6
27
209
Yesterday, Paul Vallas and Brandon Johnson advanced to April's Chicago mayoral runoff election after a top-two primary which eliminated incumbent mayor Lori Lightfoot. The election is heavily polarized by race, seen in the map below, with each "bloc" covering thirds of the city.
8
52
211
Here's a demographic map of Orange County! As you can see, the vast majority of residents belong to one (or more) of three ethno-racial groups: Whites, Hispanics, and Asians. The county has a narrow White plurality, with rapidly growing Hispanic and Asian minorities.
10
37
204
The only conservative win tonight was in Wisconsin's
#SD08
, where Dan Knodl won a special election to hold a supermajority for the Wisconsin Republicans in the State Senate. An impending legislative district redraw may change the longevity of this outcome.
12
51
204
President Reagan kicked off his reelection campaign in the county that gave him the largest win margin in 1980. Orange County expanded this margin in 1984; setting a high-water mark for the modern GOP and cementing a conservative reputation for itself for decades to come.
9
40
206
Orange County Precinct 13377 (Fullerton/Sunny Hills) is the county's most Asian (mostly Korean) precinct at ~80% Asian and demonstrates some serious ticket splitting.
2020 President:
Biden: 1,405 - 59.4%
Trump: 926 - 39.1%
2020 House:
Kim: 1,236 - 53.0%
Cisneros: 1,098 - 47.0%
9
16
179
The Chicago City Council just reached an agreement to finish remapping its fifty aldermanic wards as shown. The primary roadblock to redistricting was disagreement between the Latino and Black Caucuses over demographic representation of their respective minority interest groups.
8
34
178
Poland has finished counting votes in this year's parliamentary election. An unofficial coalition of three electoral groups has won enough seats to form a new majority in the Sejm, pushing out the Law and Justice (PiS) party, which has led the country since 2015.
#wybory2023
6
32
189
As China celebrates 110 years of independence today, I decided to make this map to take a look at democracy in China. Here's a map of the 2020 Presidential Election in the Republic of China, where Tsai Ing-wen defeated her rival Han Kuo-yu by a landslide.
4
21
181
California's 59th Assembly district deserves two candidates in November. Write-in "Leon Sit" when you vote for Assemblymember. Ballots are sent out beginning on May 9th!
3
29
173
Current (18 Oct) Orange County ballot returns:
D: 13,467 - 40.6%
R: 12,235 - 36.9%
O: 7,470 - 22.5%
On corresponding primary date (17 May):
D: 8,788 - 42.6%
R: 6,992 - 33.9%
O: 4,873 - 23.6%
17
17
171
With results from the presidential election on Taiwan being released within an hour, please enjoy this map of the primary languages spoken in the Republic of China. Mandarin continues to increase in primary usage, dominating the North and southern cities.
4
30
181
Here's a hypothetical breakdown of the 2030 reapportionment, assuming the rate of change from 2010 to 2020 carried over for the entire decade. Obviously, it's totally hypothetical and unpredictive of actual change, but it does show what states are likely to lose or gain seats.
13
13
174
Yesterday, Rep. Young Kim announced a re-election run in
#CA40
, a foothills district binding the most conservative parts of the two double-digit Biden districts held by Reps. Kim and Porter. Despite also being won by Biden, local loyalties here are much more favorable to the GOP.
8
35
164
New York voters declined to amend the structure of the state's independent redistricting commission last November, giving fuel to the Republican-backed effort to overturn New York's legislature-drawn congressional gerrymander. Here's a map of that low-turnout referendum.
3
31
166
Faced with the partition of her district, Rep. Katie Porter chose to stick with her political base in Irvine, bringing her into the new
#CA47
which also includes most of the Orange County coast. Electorally, it features a split between the district's coastal and inland sections.
7
23
157
First OC primary map to whet interest for the coming days.
Three weeks ago, Orange County saw a very conservative electorate turn out to vote.
GOP turnout was 50.6%, DEM turnout was 37.0% and total turnout was 37.7%. This helped boost Republicans up and down the ticket.
9
39
169
Orange County certified its results today, and here's a map of the primary in
#AD59
showing my performance by precinct. The data is very noisy, but it still clearly suggests that most of my voters were Democrats seeking to write someone in rather than vote for Assemblyman Chen.
6
21
164
This is probably the lion's share of the vote. I think this is another big-city with a Republican mayor which is flipping tonight (in addition to Jacksonville).
0
11
168
Today, Governor Ron DeSantis announced that Republicans had taken the lead in partisan registration in the Sunshine State. This map shows the change in party registration between October 31st, 2020 and November 5th, 2021. Both parties lost members, but Democrats lost more!
7
30
151
A summary of the 2020 Election in the Five Boroughs of New York!
special thanks to
@jakedobkin
- I would never have gotten the precinct data without your help.
8
39
161
Hier, l'actuel président français Emmanuel Macron a advancé au 2ème tour et 2ème tête-tête election contre sa rivale Marine le Pen. Voici (mis à jour à 3h00) sont les resultats du prémier tour, présentés par départments et communes.
#Presidentielle2022
1
45
157
Yesterday's GOP Senate primary in Ohio may have been the headliner, but the gubernatorial primary was actually listed first on the ballot. Incumbent governor Mike DeWine failed to reach a majority of the vote, but still won handily thanks to his opposition voters splitting 28-22.
3
29
157
Last November, Biden crushed Trump in the Northern Virginia suburbs contained in
#VA10
, including the former bellwether of Loudoun County. The vote margin here in Virginia's most populated congressional district will be crucial in deciding the next governor of the commonwealth.
4
24
155
Orange County narrowly favored Democratic candidates for governor, in part thanks to right-wing fracturing for an independent, Michael Shellenberger. Governor Newsom and Brian Dahle will face off statewide in November, which should result in a third victory for the officeholder.
5
26
140
As this gets shared around, here are things to remember:
1. I used a simple linear projection. Many issues with that.
2. The 2030 Census will include nonresponse effects and natural deviance from the yearly estimates.
3. We're still over seven years out from the census date.
5
8
147
Orange County has seen some pretty significant demographic shifts since my parents moved here in the late 1990's. Here's a .gif showing the demographics of each census block over the course of 20 years, which highlights the various ways each part of the county changed.
4
25
137
Today, Louisiana Attorney General Jeff Landry won the gubernatorial jungle primary outright, taking 51.6% of the popular vote, flipping the office for the Republicans.
Here's a map of the party aggregate (which Republicans won by 37%) and Governor-elect Landry's vote share.
4
29
139
Atlanta's traditional divide between Buckhead and the remaining four-fifths of the city appeared once again tonight in the mayoral election. Although Andre Dickens won by a commanding margin, his opponent Felicia Moore won handily in Buckhead, producing a stiff 68.8% voting gap!
6
23
135
Here's my final report on the Peruvian Election!
In an extremely close race, Pedro Castillo beat Keiko Fujimori, ending her third attempt at the presidency. Low overseas turnout and landside margins in the Andes helped Castillo overcome Fujimori's solid performance on the coast.
5
26
131
In one of the most hotly-contested races of the 2020 cycle, Michelle Steel narrowly won over incumbent Harley Rouda in California's 48th Congressional District.
#CA48
stretches across the suburban Orange Coast, and may prove decisive in determining House control next cycle.
7
20
129
2022 Primary Election in California AD-59, as of June 9
Chen: 41,197 - 99.5%
Sit: 186 - 0.45%
Naranjo: 21 - 0.05%
9
11
132
Here's a map of the 2020 State Assembly Elections in California. Democrats maintained their supermajority, despite being locked out of the assembly district which covers Simi Valley and Santa Clarita. Comparison to Presidential results reveals the vulnerabilty of the CAGOP.
6
13
122
Just an announcement: I'm leaving my position at Split Ticket, as other tasks have become more salient in my life. I'm glad to have had the opportunity to write articles for a top-notch, independent, political analysis organization! My six months there were truly a pleasure.
3
4
126
Although former President Trump swept all but one of Iowa's counties in its quadrennial caucus, the totals split into two blocs yields a more interesting map.
Note: Haley and DeSantis may not have overlapping appeals. Rather, this map shows the "Trumpy"/non-Trump "coalitions".
2
30
120
Here's a precinct-level map of the November 2022 State Assembly election in my district (AD-59). Assemblyman Phillip Chen outperformed all other Republicans in the district, winning nearly 70% of the vote against a teenage independent, outperforming President Trump by nearly 40%.
6
20
118
On Tuesday, incumbent members of Congress Andy Levin and Haley Stevens competed for the Democratic nomination for
#MI11
, a suburban seat in Michigan's Oakland County. Although Levin won his geographic base, Stevens swept the table with the remaining two-thirds of the district.
6
20
112
Senator Alex Padilla was the best-performing California Democrat, but in still fell behind Mark Meuser by 1% in Orange County in the state's first bipartisan Senate contest since 2012. Notably, Vietnamese voters broke against the countywide trend by favoring Newsom over Padilla.
9
17
116
Here are the 2012 and 2020 election results in Connecticut. The caveat is that each shape represents each of the nine planning regions, which the State has asked the Census Bureau to use in lieu of the eight defunct counties. I suspect future analysis will involve these entities.
4
17
116
Last November, Republicans managed to narrowly beat the Democrats in the California Assembly elections in Orange County. Ticket-splitting effects were strong enough at this level to give the GOP a razor-thin lead in a county Biden had simultaneously won by a nine-percent margin.
6
24
111
In November, California voters approved Proposition 1, which enshrined a right to an abortion and contraceptive access in the state constitution by a 2-to-1 margin. Here are the results in Orange County, where "No" only won three cities: Yorba Linda, Villa Park, and Westminster.
13
24
117
Here's a simple graphic showing the Nameless North Texas Blue! This region is home to rural conservatives who once backed Democrats, but have since come to support Republicans. This is similar to other counties across the United States which have gone blue-to-red over the years.
8
13
110
Last night, Republicans flipped a seat in the Iowa House of Representatives. Iowa HD-29 voted for Presidents Obama and Trump twice each, but was still aligned with Democrats locally. The previous incumbent was a conservative Democrat whose retirement led to yesterday's election.
1
31
108
With 26 days to go, Republicans in Orange County are poised to increase their registration% over the Democrats over a calendar year for the first time since, what, the 1980's?
They may even gain by net voters by year's end.
5
23
117
In 2020, Dave Min flipped Irvine-based CA SD-37 for the Democrats in a tightly-contested race against State Senator John Moorlach. Min has since entered the race for CA-47 as of earlier today, a strong bid considering he currently represents 84% of his prospective constituents.
3
29
112
These weren't the results we were hoping for, but I'm glad to have had the opportunity to be a candidate for an office on the level of State Assembly, especially as a teenager. I'd like to wish Phillip Chen a successful term as Assemblyman of our new district!
6
7
112
In 2016, Hillary Clinton washed out GOP strength from its former Orange County strongholds, soaking the county blue for the first time since 1936.
Hurricane Hilary, the first tropical storm to make landfall in SoCal since 1939, will similarly drench the county today.
Stay safe!
2
16
111
Today, the Orange County Board of Supervisors approved a new map for the next decade of supervisorial elections!
Stated goals included giving better representation to the county's growing and distinct Asian and Hispanic communities. The new demographic breakdown is shown below.
7
25
109
Trump-endorsed businessman Tim Michels defeated former Lt. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch in Wisconsin's Republican gubernatorial primary. The Milwaukee suburbs generally supported the fomer officeholder; only in Waukesha County did Kleefisch win a majority of votes.
5
28
105
NBC's entrance poll has Ramaswamy at 27% among Republicans under 45 vs 6% for 45 and above.
6
17
105
Here's my map of the 2020 Presidential Race in my home county, Orange County! Although Trump managed to flip ethnically diverse cities in the western half, his strength eroded in the whiter and more affluent areas. Biden built a mere 0.4% margin over Clinton in 2016.
3
11
94
Orange County Precinct 68059 (Santa Ana)
56.3% Asian, 37.6% Hispanic, 4.6% White
2016 Pres:
Clinton: 600 - 71.4%
Trump: 203 - 24.2%
2020 Pres:
Biden: 679 - 49.3%
Trump: 677 - 49.1%
2020 House:
Rouda: 686 - 51.8%
Steel: 638 - 48.2%
2021 Recall
No: 509 - 62.2%
Yes: 309 - 37.8%
10
21
94
Last night,
@KatrinaFoley
won her race for Orange County Supervisor, flipping a historically Republican seat and ending into the
@OCGOP
supermajority. Here's a comparison between her performance versus President Biden's performance last fall.
3
25
95
Yesterday, Taiwan elected Vice President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) as President, a third consecutive victory for the DPP in a three-way race. Challenges from two parties to the right allowed Lai to win with only 40% of the vote alongside his party's loss of its legislative majority.
5
23
99
Yesterday, Dr. Mehmet Oz took the lead from David McCormick in a tight primary race for the GOP's Senate nomination in Pennsylvania. Here's a county map and a breakdown by congressional district, showing some deviance from the commonwealth's traditional regionalist tendicies.
0
22
96
Republicans will probably need to get a lot closer to winning the popular vote to win the White House in 2024 if they continue to gain in deep blue and deep red states without complimentary gains in purple states (or surprise flips). Almost every swing state trended away in 2022.
From our SHAVE methodology piece today by
@politicsmaps
, here's a map of how each state *trended* from 2020 to 2022 at the congressional level. Very difficult to say that Republicans had anything other than a colossal midterm flop relative to expectations.
19
60
333
3
15
97
The dark blue patch in the southwest is Jeolla, split into north and south but nonetheless a cohesive voting bloc for liberals. North and South Gyeongsang lie and vote opposite to Jeolla, leading to what I understand to be Korea's most bitter regional rivalry.
2
6
96
Not *entirely* sure if this was official, but today, the city of Placentia in northern Orange County annexed the previously unincorporated Hamer Island, a red enclave in the middle of a purple city.
This new city would have been Trump -> Biden, with a Republican downballot lean.
0
10
92
#CA49
is a coastal district which stretches across Southern Orange County and into Northern San Diego County. Increased Democratic strength in these former GOP strongholds has allowed Mike Levin to win reelection in what was once politically hostile territory.
3
13
91
Alaska is the 2nd state to implement RCV for congressional elections, behind Maine on the opposite coast. There, in 2018, first-round winner Rep. Bruce Poliquin lost in the final tally to Jared Golden. Similarly, Peltola flipped the seat despite Republicans combining for 58.8%.
2
6
91
@BruneElections
To win "the middle" Democrats should tone down cultural issues while Republicans should come up with better policies. Or maybe the median voter is a left-leaning cultural conservative.
2
0
94
Here's a city map, if any of you were curious. I would say it really reminds me of the 2016 Presidential results. Vietnamese neigborhoods went Clinton - Trump - Retain, while many upscale neighborhoods went Trump - Biden - Recall. This has been an interesting election!
12
16
93
Yearly partisan registration changes in Orange County mapped out by city for 2022 and 2023.
Change in previous years:
2021: ~D +1.2%
2020: ~D +1.6%
2019: ~D +2.0%
2018: ~D +2.2%
7
21
92
Here's a 2018-2021 swing map for the California Recall! Newsom defended his post with approximately the same margin with which he was elected. Most of the redshift was fuelled by a decline in Newsom's margin in vote-rich Los Angeles, the Inland Empire, and the Central Valley.
5
17
90