Kraz Greinetz
@krazgreinetz
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San Francisco ➡️ UMD '21 🐢/Duke Law '24. Football and elections. Articles for @elections_daily and @49erswebzone
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I'm finally headed back to UMD, 111 days after I got sent home due to the Coronavirus Pandemic. In that time I've made 44 maps. Here they all are in chronological order. I hope you people learn as much from looking at them as I learned from making them.
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The feminism leaving my girlfriend’s body when it’s time to divide up the driving on a road trip.
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Boudin is losing virtually every neighborhood with lots of non-white voters except for the Mission. According to the San Francisco Chronicle, he's winning places with lots of progressive whites (Noe Valley, Castro, Haight) and nowhere else.
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My conspiracy is that Silver’s code was messed up and he changed it without telling anyone. The polls have only marginally changed, no way his convention bounce variable should have been affecting the race this much for a *month* and then disappear in the span of a few days.
#Latest
@NateSilver538
forecast (chance of winning)
September 9
🟥 Trump: 64.4%
🟦 Harris: 35.3%
September 20
🟦 Harris: 51.1%
🟥 Trump: 48.6%
——
Swing States: chance of winning
Michigan - 🔵 Harris 62-38%
Wisconsin - 🔵 Harris 55-45%
Pennsylvania - 🔵 Harris 54-46%
Nevada -
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Democrats in Texas are going to have to reckon with the fact that the state had record turnout beyond their wildest dreams and Trump still won by 6%. For years the conventional wisdom was that Texas was red because of low turnout, but I don't think that idea holds up anymore.
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Georgia be like
2008: 12 points to the right of the nation
2012: 11 points to the right of the nation
2016: 8 points to the right of the nation
2018: 10 points to the right of the nation
Blue Georgia believers: Aw hell yeah, this is flippable in 2020.
Texas be like:
2012: 12 points to the right of the nation
2016: 10 points to the right of the nation
2018: 10 points to the right of the nation
2020: 10 points to the right of the nation
2022: 9 points right of the nation
Blexas believers: Aw hell yeah, this is flippable in 2024
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Someone should study how even though this service literally didn’t exist ten years ago, there’s somehow now a large group of people on this site who treat it as an essential human right they can’t live without.
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Getting harder to see how Biden turns this around. His big advertising advantage is about to disappear. He’s not physically capable of running the kind of campaign he likely needs to. Dems keep assuming the calvary is coming but they don’t own any horses.
#New
General Election Poll - Swing State's
Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +5
Georgia - 🔴 Trump +5
Michigan - 🔴 Trump +1
Arizona - 🔴 Trump +4
Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +3
Nevada - 🔴 Trump +6
Emerson (🔵)
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I have never deleted an app harder than how I'm gonna delete Zoom once I get this vaccine.
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Here are the numbers for August and September:
August 2016: 26 rallies
August 2024: 7 rallies
September 2016: 21 rallies
September 2024: 6 rallies
It might not matter (unclear if campaign events really help) but I think it's a notable change in his brand/campaign.
It's not just less coverage, Trump's energy for rallies and events really is way down since 2016. Number of rallies by month:
June 2016: 14
June 2024: 6
July 2016: 10
July 2024: 4
That feels like an under-discussed dynamic now that Harris has replaced Biden.
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Cuomo went from national hero for Democrats, eclipsing even Biden for a time, to resigning in disgrace in the span of year yet people confidently predict what politics will look like in 4 or 8 years.
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Damn, Forsyth County's turnout dropped 12% from November, one of the biggest drops in the state. Extremely well educated Republican county, and the county where Walker underperformed Kemp the most in November. Educated Rs consciously sat this race out in large numbers.
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Obviously this can change in a campaign, but I feel like a lot of people on here are blind to the fact that Walz likely codes as more moderate than Shapiro based on his vibes/background even though it’s not true based on policy.
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This TX-34 result should probably kill once and for all the idea that the RGV swung to Trump because "it likes incumbents" or whatever people were coming up with.
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Not Bay Area but still an insane California housing stat - Santa Monica built 1,700 housing units between 2010-20. In the same time period, it graduated 7,000 high school seniors. Numbers are similar in most high-demand cities. Young adults just physically have to move away.
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Alaska's partisan lean relative to the country since 2000:
2000: R +31
2004: R +34
2008: R +29
2012: R +18
2016: R +17
2020: R +14
Still not a truly competitive state but it's definitely seen substantial movement since the turn of the century.
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This is what I've been trying to say. People pretend like the 2016 campaign was some painful, awful slog for Democrats. Yes Clinton's favorables were bad, but Trump's were worse. Hillary was absolutely winning the "vibes" contest the whole time. Everything else is hindsight.
2. *At the time* Clinton was the candidate of the Fight Song celebrities and Kaine was America's cool, stepdad on the latest night comedy shows.
But then they lost. Clinton became about Pokémon go to the polls and Kaine became "boring" (as if that's bad in a VP.)
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I don't even think Texas will flip but this kind of argument is silly because 1) the numbers listed have multiple errors already and 2) states (like GA) can move left or right fairly methodically without following broader nationwide shifts.
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Again I'm not ruling this out, but without a good "why" I think it's hard to accept that among every single demographic group, Biden has collapsed catastrophically, but only with non-voters, and with 0 bleed into any group of primary voters whatsoever.
Our July NYT/Siena poll on the Democratic primary:
All RVs: Biden 64, Kennedy 13, Williamson 10;
Voted in 2022 primary: Biden 87, RFK 4, Williamson 3.
...
All Black RVs: Biden 75, Kennedy 15, Williamson 3
Black 2022 primary voters: Biden 94, Kennedy 1, Williamson 0
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The British Election today should remind Americans everywhere why we fought for independence. While we're celebrating freedom, they're on the edge of their seat waiting to see how some place named "Sheepshire and Twistingdale" voted. Not a serious country.
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Guys stop calling Aaron Rodgers and anti-vaxxer you can only get the vaccine if your arm actually works
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I get what the polls say, but I would be shocked if North Carolina is bluer than Georgia. There’s no demographic reason for it to be true, and NC was redder in 2020 and 2022. It would require a strange demographic shift I’m not sure anyone can really articulate or identify.
I'll even show your our state hex map as a tease. Following NYT/Siena, we actually have Harris as more likely to win NC > GA and more likely to win AZ > NV, though a close call in both instances.
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Excited to have worked with
@Thorongil16
on this Washington Primary piece.
Big finding: Washington without Seattle is a great predictor of the national environment, while looking (and voting) like the Midwest. Its 2024 results are good news for Dems.
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This is also an overreaction. There is 0 evidence that Walz, a generic governor with low name recognition, would "super-charge" enthusiasm. This is "works on the Hill" brain
Shapiro is not worth this risk when intra-party critiques of Walz aren't as salient. Walz is both popular across the Democratic Party and an elusive target for Republicans. He will super-charge enthusiasm among Democrats. He is, therefore, safer.
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In New Hampshire, Biden did much better in progressive college towns than he did statewide. At least in this data young progressives seem *happier* with Biden than other Dem primary voters. No evidence of a big protest vote over Israel-Gaza.
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I don’t wade into partisan stuff very often, but the fact that Marjorie Taylor Greene is quote tweeting a teenager at 2 am to try to insult him should tell you all you need to know about her as a person.
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One thing GA Dems have going for them is that there's good evidence the state has been moving left irrespective of the national environment. Here are the top of the ticket margins since 2012:
2012: R +7.9
2014: R +7.7
2016: R +5.1
2018: R +1.4
2020: D +.3
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Kind of underrated that the NYT needle is probably going to end up being supernaturally accurate throughout the entire night. This is a very close race but if you were watching the NYT you would have an idea what was going to happen for *hours*
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Alright now that we’re finished with all that early vote bullshit, it’s time to analyze the really reliable data - anecdotal reports of long lines at polling stations.
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"Minority groups only deserve districts and representation when they vote the way I want"
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Excited to share that my opinion piece was published in the San Francisco Chronicle! In it, I argue that Dianne Feinstein, in refusing to resign, isn't betraying California - she's perfectly representing the state's do-nothing political culture.
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I literally made this map (one of my early pieces) and what it shows is that Chesa failed while tenant protections won because numerous working-class, largely non-white neighborhoods flipped. Not proving the point you think it is.
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It's not just less coverage, Trump's energy for rallies and events really is way down since 2016. Number of rallies by month:
June 2016: 14
June 2024: 6
July 2016: 10
July 2024: 4
That feels like an under-discussed dynamic now that Harris has replaced Biden.
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Tennessee is a really undercovered growth success story. The state is growing and it’s not just the cities - the rural areas are seeing massive growth. Never seen anyone explore why rural areas in TN have been able to avoid the depopulation of very similar areas in other states.
Real GDP change 2019 Q4-2022 Q4
TN +11.9%
FL +11.1%
WA +8.8%
AZ +8.8%
NC +8.6%
OR: +7.1%
CO +6.8%
TX +6.2%
GA +6.2%
MA +5.9%
SC +5.4%
AL +5.2%
CA +5%
MI +4.8%
VA +4.7%
NJ +4.1%
NY +4%
IN +4%
KY +3.6%
OH +3.5%
MO +3.4%
IL +3.3%
MN +2.6%
WI +2.1%
PA +1.9%
MD -0.1%
OK -4%
LA -7.5%
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This has been a lurking issue for Trump the whole campaign. He does less than half the rallies he used to. It just went unnoticed because of Biden’s age. Now that Harris is doing events daily, Vance has to be out there to counter it if Trump can’t go.
It's getting very noticeable how Vance is campaigning much more frequently than Trump.
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I don't think there's a single state where Dems are more in denial about their long term issues and their prospects in 2022 than Nevada. It's trended red every election since 2008 and Cortez-Masto is a solid but not spectacular incumbent.
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Douglas County (blue Atlanta suburbs) is pretty much done counting
November: Ossoff +24.5
Now: Ossoff +29.5
With both very red and very blue ATL suburbs showing a Democratic shift, there are not a lot of good signs for the GOP.
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This was probably our most shocking finding. Between 2012 and 2016, The Washington Primary got about 10% bluer, giving Dems false hope for a blowout in 2016. But Washington without Seattle got 5% *redder* at the same time. Should have been a giant warning for Dems in the Midwest.
This area is demographically similar to much of the Midwest, and the results here in 2016 actually predicted Clinton's total collapse with White Working Class Voters, months before those results shocked the election world. Democrats are doing about 1.5% better here than 2020.
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Carter all in. Beshear +4. Was Trump +51. Biggest swing I’ve seen so far.
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One weird thing is that people are just assuming Texas is going to shift red this year. Obviously possible, but the state has trended blue for a while and the 2022 results were pretty underwhelming for the GOP. Not clear why everyone is assuming this.
📊 TEXAS POLL by Morning Consult
🟥 Trump: 50%
🟦 Harris: 46%
Senate
🟦 Allred: 45%
🟥 Cruz (inc): 44%
Source:
@eyokley
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According to the University of New Hampshire, one of the documents students are required to provide if they want to qualify for in-state tuition is... proof of being registered to vote in New Hampshire.
A New Hampshire bill would require NH college students to have qualified for in-state tuition if they want to vote in NH.
It'd also eliminate same-day voter registration.
(NH GOP signals path it wants to try to win the 2022 Senate seat.) [rewritten]
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FWIW, the best argument against a lurking polling error this cycle is that the non-polling indicators (WA Primary + special elections) point the same direction as the polls. In 2016/20 they pointed towards a polling error (special elections chart from
@ECaliberSeven
)
It’s not precisely the same thing, but trying to compare polling now to polling at this time in 2020 is that you can’t bank on the same polling error. It would be like saying “losing 24-3 in a football game is no big deal because the Patriots came back from down 28-3.”
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I think because Biden won some Democrats aren't really worrying enough about the party's decline with minority voters (especially Hispanic and Asian voters). A continued decline with these groups would be catastrophic for Dems and a lot of people are just shrugging it off.
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My conspiracy is that 538 was boosting Biden's odds before he dropped out, because they didn't really believe the polls/crosstabs, so now the model would show something absurd like Harris with an 85% chance to win despite only being up 2% nationally and tied in swing states.
So is the model ever going to be turned back on? Kamala Harris is officially the Democratic nominee
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It’s not precisely the same thing, but trying to compare polling now to polling at this time in 2020 is that you can’t bank on the same polling error. It would be like saying “losing 24-3 in a football game is no big deal because the Patriots came back from down 28-3.”
Public Policy Polling had Iowa Biden +1, Texas Biden +2, Michigan Biden +10, PA Biden +7, NC Biden +4, and FLORIDA Biden +7 in 2020.
So....yeah, these are indeed terrible polls for Kamala Harris. Mid-DNC polling from a double-D duo couldn't get Harris close to Biden's 2020
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According to my calculations, San Francisco's most heavily Asian precinct went from Hillary +74 in 2016 to Biden +52 in 2020. A massive 22% swing in margin in four years that underscores how Trump increased his support in even very urban non-white communities.
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I wouldn’t go this far for Texas, but I think people are underestimating the chance the GOP’s Hispanic gains kind of stall out. Not saying they will, but if you think they’re going to replicate the 16->20 gains, then you have to think downtown Houston will be 50-50 in 2028.
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On the one hand, polls have underestimated Trump twice and it’s hard not to expect that to continue. On the other hand, the people who just add 7% to Trump’s margin in every poll wouldn’t believe polls showing Harris up 7 anyway and would just find an excuse to trash them.
The “polls are wrong” case is lazy & annoying
If you genuinely want to just carry over the 2020 miss and add Trump+5 to every poll go for it. But if you are, and things don’t go that way, you are obligated to explain yourself on 11/6.
…which Barris et al never did in ‘22
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This is why I cringe when people say "wow Kamala has the juice!! I haven't seen this since Obama!" Yes you have, it was called the Clinton 2016 campaign. She was the media darling, had the vaunted "ground game," and Trump was constantly clowned for gaffs, barely having GOTV, etc.
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You have to be terminally online in ways I cannot even fathom to think this photo caused problems for Democrats down-ballot.
If the Democrats were a serious political party aiming at power (instead of a job program for insiders), they would think about how Feinstein's hug of Lindsey Graham hurt them with down ballot voters.
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Turner’s loss is honestly one of the most baffling for progressives. She had everything you’d want in a primary candidate: the strong backing of the Bernie wing, tons of money, lots of local endorsements, and a lead in every publicly released poll. What went wrong?
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I think some people might be drawing too many conclusions from GA early voting data.
1). R’s could be switching their vote preference to Election Day
2). Even if the electorate is better for Ds than in November, it could still very well be an electorate *Perdue* won.
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In 2014, Tennessee voted to amend the state constitution to make clear that it does not guarantee the right to abortion. Pro-choice advocates relied on an urban and suburban coalition which has never truly manifested itself in a partisan race. Here are the results by precinct.
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For the second time in 6 years, San Francisco voted on allowing 16-year-olds to vote in local elections, and for the second time in 6 years, the voters said "No". Even in a hugely progressive city, youth voting faces an uphill climb. Here's how it went down to a narrow defeat.
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This area is demographically similar to much of the Midwest, and the results here in 2016 actually predicted Clinton's total collapse with White Working Class Voters, months before those results shocked the election world. Democrats are doing about 1.5% better here than 2020.
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To expand on this: There's no omnipotent Election God. A state that's "static" still has tons of movement under the hood driven by millions of individual decisions. They just (mostly) cancel each other out. But there's no law of nature that says that will continue to be the case.
Georgia be like
2008: 12 points to the right of the nation
2012: 11 points to the right of the nation
2016: 8 points to the right of the nation
2018: 10 points to the right of the nation
Blue Georgia believers: Aw hell yeah, this is flippable in 2020.
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Barnes struggling is not super surprising:
1. Biden barely won WI
2. Johnson is going to do way better than Trump in WOW (and similar areas).
3. Thus, Dems need a big over-performance elsewhere in the state
4. Barnes is a generic Dem from Milwaukee so
#3
might be tough.
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Here's a map showing how counties that are greater than 50% white but less than 20% college educated voted in 2000 and 2016. Bush actually won these types of white working class counties by a wide margin, but Trump just blew the doors open.
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Do I believe Gideon is up 12%? No. That being said, we've now seen poll after poll with Collins losing and the GOP's only response is to scoff and claim their super secret polls are way better. But they haven't showed them, and it's starting to feel a lot like VA-10 in 2018.
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There are 934 counties nationwide that are >80% white and <20% college educated. Bill Clinton won these heavily white working class counties narrowly in his 1996 re-election bid, but Hillary Clinton, running 20 years later, lost them in a blowout.
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"The suburbs will go back to the GOP after Trump but all the groups he made gains with will continue to move towards Republicans" is literally just the GOP version of the "Emergent Democratic Majority" theories from circa 2012.
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It's so strange that the politician who inspires the most Trump-like devotion from Democrats is... Andrew Cuomo
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It seems implausible that both the PA Senate race and OR-06 are tossup federal elections in the same year. One of these things is going to be wrong. I think everyone recognizes that but we have to pretend it's not the case because we don't know what the "real" environment is.
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This year, Democrat Barabara Bollier's run for Senate in Kansas generated considerable excitement from the party, as it hoped to flip the seat from the GOP for the first time since 1932. But in the end, she came up short by 11.4%. Here's a precinct map of the results.
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Here is the 2017 Alabama Senate Election by Precinct. Thanks to the scandals surrounding Roy Moore, Democrat Doug Jones was able to pull off a stunning upset. Jones ran up the score in urban and suburban areas while juicing turnout in the Black Belt.
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The 2020 Presidential Election in Ohio by precinct. Despite being ground zero for Democratic efforts to win back White-Working Class Voters, Trump still won the state by 8.1%, even as Biden did well in its cities and suburbs.
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Looking at the results, it appears Minnesota had a voter turnout rate of over 91%. That means Minnesota's turnout rate is only slightly lower than Australia's, where voting is literally mandatory and citizens are fined if they stay home on Election Day.
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Last month, Arizona passed Prop 308, which allows non-citizen students to qualify for in-state tuition. The measure underperformed Democratic numbers with Natives, Hispanics, and suburban Dems, but made up the difference with White Republicans, especially in Paul Gosar's seat.
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Riding the unpopularity of Sam Brownback, as well as the controversies surrounding then-Secretary of State Kris Kobach, Democrat Laura Kelly won the KS Gubernatorial Race by 5%. Kelly kept rural margins down and ran up the score in the metro areas. Here is a precinct level map.
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In personal news, I'm officially going to Duke Law in the fall! 🔵👿🔵
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The WA primary won't change my outlook much, but it shows Dems doing well *in WA.* WA is pretty urban, young, and well educated, so that does make me a bit more cautious at polls showing Trump doing well in AZ/GA, which aren't too different in terms of age, density, education.
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I feel like if you think sports betting and crypto are investments that help you make additional income, your own decision-making might be the biggest barrier to you having assets.
this is not to say that its even possible to live a boomer life in current year. for the boomers, clocking in for 60 years was enough to have assets and retire. if you want to do that now, in addition to the job you need side hustles, sports betting, crypto, etc to supplement it
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Rockdale County, first big metro Atlanta County to finish counting:
Nov: Ossoff +40.5
Now: Ossoff +44.5
If R's are relying on the Atlanta area this is not a good sign for them.
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Swing voters that broke Dem were largely educated suburbanites who were convinced that the GOP candidate was weird, deranged, or bought into conspiratorial stuff. No GOPer lost because they want tax cuts.
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Back in 2006, Democrats were still highly competitive at the state level in Alabama. That year, Democrat Jim Folsom Jr. narrowly defeated Republican Luther Strange for the Lieutenant Governor's position. His winning precinct map is something out of a time machine.
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Kind of an insane stat: in UMD's campus precinct, a grand total of *two* people voted for Dan Cox. Not a typo, he came in 4th place behind two third party candidates.
MD governor by precinct. Wes Moore did historically well in the suburbs, though overall performed slightly behind Biden in 2020 due to lower urban turnout. This is the highest margin of victory for an MD governor candidate since 1986.
#mdpolitics
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I get this, but a ton of people got burned *hard* by predicting a "regression to the mean" in 2020. GA being bluer than NC in 2020 wasn't some 2008-Indiana style fluke. It was the culmination of multiple cycles of almost linear demographic trends.
I actually buy NC > GA! NC was bluer than GA in 2008, 2012, and 2016. People tend to underestimate how trends sometimes regress to the mean.
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2006 was a great year for Democrats, with one of their best results coming in Wisconsin. Democratic Senator Herb Kohl dominated, winning by close to 40%, and sweeping every county in the state. His winning map is a sight to see.
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Here's the 2018 Nevada Senate Election by precinct, but with Census Blocks that have a population of 0 removed. Really drives home how empty much of the state is and how most of the votes (even the GOP ones) come from Reno and Las Vegas.
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What on earth? The new VA map is 7-4 Biden with the median seat being Biden +7.
No surprise the Republican VA Supreme Court drew a 6-5 GOP Congressional gerrymander in a Biden +10 state. Total hacks, and every member of the court needs to come off when they are up for reappointment.
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Here's how the race between Perdue and Ossoff shifted between the general and the runoff. Ossoff improved across the state but made especially big gains in the diverse rural areas of Southwest Georgia due to strong Black turnout.
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The best part of this primary is knowing literally nothing about the political geography of Massachusetts so I just watch people be like "Oh wow great numbers for Markey in Worthhampington, right where Emerson's poll crosstabs implied he would actually be weak"
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Lib Dems in by-elections vs. Lib Dems in general elections
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Here's the shift between the 2018 Ohio Senate Election (D +6.8) and the 2020 Presidential Race in the state (R +8.1). Biden did 15% worse than Sherrod Brown but still outran him in some of the state's upscale suburbs - speaking to the durability of the suburban trends we've seen.
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In 2010, Kamala Harris' career was almost halted. She ran for Attorney General of California, and nearly lost to Republican and Los Angeles County District Attorney Steve Cooley. In the end she won by .8%, only getting 46% of the vote. Here is a precinct map of the race.
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Despite being one of the most highly-watched Senate races of the cycle, Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly won re-election in Arizona by a comfortable 4.9% over venture capitalist Blake Masters. Here are the results by precinct.
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This seems clever but presidential-level shifts virtually always filter downballot, even if slowly. People called KY and WV "still really blue downballot" for years. Parties outrun presidential trends until they don't.
One thing I love about election twitter is that they base so many of their arguments on what states are "trending blue" on presidential elections. I saw someone claim Utah is trending blue, but that trend disappears if you look at the congressional vote instead of presidential
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I feel like no one had this take until November 9, 2016. Not to rain on anyone's parade, but Clinton 2016 had huge rallies with A-list celebrities, tons of polling momentum, fundraising, etc. If Kamala loses people will say the exact same thing the morning after the election.
Literally no one was hyped about Clinton in 2016, let's be 100% real about that
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It seems clear to me that if Sinema ran as an independent she would draw more Ds than Rs:
1. Former D
2. High name rec with Ds
3. Caucuses with Ds
4. Votes with Ds
5. *the big one* because of 1-4, no compelling reason for 85% of R voters to prefer to her to an actual R.
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The 2018 U.S. Senate Race in Indiana by Precinct. Despite efforts to portray himself as a moderate, Indiana had gotten too red, and incumbent Democrat Joe Donnelly was unseated by GOP State Representative Mike Braun by a margin of 6%.
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I will never understand people who go into a community with a niche interest, and then make a point of saying that interest is useless and morally inferior.
Lots of people on ET are involved in politics, they just don’t talk about it on publicly. Live and let live.
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The idea that riots/"defund the police" hurt Biden is hard to square with the fact that in Minnesota:
1). There were riots
2). The state's largest city pledged to defund the police
And yet MN shifted more towards Biden than almost any other state in the country.
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@BruneElections
Yeah I don't think this is happening in TX but the actual PVI for it was R +20, R +12, R +10, then R +9 last year. The path for Ds is basically the same as GA (GOP runs out of places to make big gains, suburbs shift big and Biden wins)
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Here is how every county that is greater than 80% white and less than 20% college educated voted in both 2000 and 2008. Obama did 7% better than Gore nationwide, but 2% worse in these white working class counties. This should have been a flashing red warning for Dems at the time.
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Joe Biden has been declared the President-Elect of the United States of America, defeating incumbent Donald Trump. As of now, here is a nationwide map of his win by county.
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Trump losing his social media does more to reduce his influence on the GOP and kneecap his potential 2024 run than anything Congress or his cabinet could realistically do.
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15% for "uncommitted," given this was a state with a lot of energy behind a protest vote, suggests that discontent with Biden's policy on Gaza, regardless of how widespread it is, is not something costing him lots of actual votes on the ground.
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