VoteHub
@VoteHubUS
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Your hub for 2024 election content. 🇺🇸 We map elections in detail, aggregate only top-quality polls, and offer insights to explain the political landscape.
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We now have nine national A/B rated polls post-debate:
Reuters/Ipsos 🟦 Harris +5
Yahoo News/YouGov 🟦 Harris +4
I&I/TIPP 🟦 Harris +4
Times/YouGov 🟦 Harris +4
Data For Progres 🟦 Harris +4
Atlas/Intel 🟥 Trump +3
ABC/Ipsos 🟦 Harris +6
Angus Reid 🟦 Harris +4
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VoteHub State Polling Average Update
🟦 Kamala Harris: 292
🟥 Donald Trump: 246
👉 North Carolina flips to Harris.
👉 Trump still holds narrow leads in Georgia and Arizona.
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VoteHub State Polling Average Update
🟦 Kamala Harris (D): 281
🟥 Donald Trump (R): 241
🔵Arizona has flipped to the Democratic column.
⚪North Carolina is now tied.
See the details:
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Alaska At-Large primary results
🟦 Mary Peltola 33893 votes 50%
🟥 Nick Begich 17940 votes 27%
🟥 Nancy Dahlstorm 13299 votes 20%
🟥 Matthew Salisbury 395 votes 1%
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We now have twelve national A/B rated polls post-debate:
Reuters/Ipsos 🟦 Harris +5
Yahoo News/YouGov 🟦 Harris +4
I&I/TIPP 🟦 Harris +4
Times/YouGov 🟦 Harris +4
Data For Progres 🟦 Harris +4
Atlas/Intel 🟥 Trump +3
ABC/Ipsos 🟦 Harris +6
Angus Reid 🟦 Harris +4
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We're excited to launch an ambitious project: the entire country mapped at a granular level for the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections.
This interactive lets you toggle between overall results, dot densities, shifts, and more, with data at state, county, and block group level.
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🚨 Democrats have flipped a second seat in the Ottawa County commission. GOP Incumbent Lucy Ebel loses the recall election by 20 points.
🔵 Chris Kleinjans 2502 votes (60%)
🔴 Lucy Ebel (incumbent) 1665 votes (40%)
2012- Romney +16 , 2020- Biden +1
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Campaign stops since August 6 (when VP picks were announced for both parties)
🔵 Walz 📍33
🔵 Harris 📍27
🔴 Trump 📍22
🔴 Vance 📍22
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All precincts are now fully reported in Ohio's 6th district. Michael Rulli (R) wins this district by 8.6% tonight. This district voted for Trump by nearly 30% in 2020.
20% swing left from 2020
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Polling summary for September 16
👉 National
ABC News/Ipsos 🟦 Harris +6
👉 Iowa
Des Moines Register/Selzer 🟥 Trump +4
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Happy post debate night!
A little surprise for you. A live interactive presidential campaign event tracker 🥳
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As of September 4, 2024:
Kamala Harris leads by 3.3% in our national 28 day flat average of high quality A/B rated pollsters
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Kamala Harris now leads by 1.2% nationally in our 28 day rolling polling average
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Polling summary for September 18th-
👉 National
FOX News 🟦 Harris +2
Economist/YouGov 🟦 Harris +4
👉 Pennsylvania
Quinnipiac 🟦 Harris +5
👉 Wisconsin
Quinnipiac 🟦 Harris +1
👉 Michigan
Quinnipiac 🟦 Harris +5
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National Polling Average Update- September 14th
👉 Kamala Harris leads by 3 points in the national polling average
👉 Only A/B rated pollsters are included
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National polling update as of August 24th:
Kamala Harris leads by 2.6% in the 28 day rolling national polling average
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National polling average update as of September 13th
👉 Kamala Harris leads by 2.9% nationally
👉 Only A/B rated pollsters are included
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Unofficial election night results for New Jersey's 10th congressional district (Newark, Jersey City, Oranges)
2020: D+62.5
TONIGHT: D+65.2
2.7% shift 🔵
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VoteHub State Polling Average Update
🟦 Kamala Harris: 292
🟥 Donald Trump: 246
👉 Harris is leading by 2+ points in Wisconsin and Michigan.
👉 Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona are within 1 point.
👉 Pennsylvania is still the tipping point state.
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VoteHub State Polling Average Update
🟦 Kamala Harris: 276
🟥 Donald Trump: 262
👉 Harris is leading in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by >1%
👉 Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona are all within ~0.5%
👉 Pennsylvania is still the tipping point state
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Kamala Harris has taken a narrow lead in our 28 day rolling national polling average
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Battleground States Polling Update 📊
👉 Kamala Harris leads in MI, WI, PA and NV
👉 Donald Trump leads in AZ, GA, NC
👉 Only A/B pollsters are included
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Kamala Harris will also be visiting Johnstown in Western Pennsylvania today
Future Campaign Events 🗓️
September 13, 2024
👉 Kamala Harris will be holding a rally in Wilkes Barre, Pennsylvania
👉 Donald Trump will be holding a rally in Las Vegas, Nevada
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Enjoy our swing states 3D visualization project below. These are for the 2020 presidential election.
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Battleground state polling averages for Monday, September 16:
👉 Suffolk’s Pennsylvania poll slightly increased Kamala Harris’s margin there.
👉 In our time-adjusted average, she is now leading in Pennsylvania by >1 point.
Only A/B rated pollsters are included.
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Polling summary for September 14
👉 National
Yahoo News/YouGov 🟦 Harris +4
I&I/TIPP 🟦 Harris +4
Atlas Intel 🟥 Trump +3
👉 Wisconsin
Insider Advantage 🟦 Harris +2
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Polling summary for September 11
👉 National
Cygnal (B): 🟦 Harris +2
Economist/YouGov (B+): 🟨 Tied
👉 Wisconsin
Marquette (A+): 🟦 Harris +4
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Minnesota 5th congressional district first results
🟩 Ilhan Omar 50.8%
🟦 Don Samuels 47.6%
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Presidential battleground state averages following a round of new polls.
North Carolina is now within 0.1 point. Kamala Harris leads by 3 in recent national polls and 2.2 in our adjusted national average.
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Updated Alaska At-Large primary results
🟦 Mary Peltola 48576 votes 50.4%
🟥 Nick Begich 25993 votes 27.0%
🟥 Nancy Dahlstorm 19252 votes 20.0%
🟥 Matthew Salisbury 602 votes 0.6%
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National polling average update as of September 12th
👉 Kamala Harris leads by 2.8% nationally
👉 Only A/B rated pollsters are included
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After a big polling day, here is where our polling averages currently stand:
👉 Only A/B rated polls are included
👉 Harris up in MI, WI, PA, NV
👉 Trump up in NC, GA and AZ
👉 Michigan is the bluest swing state
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VoteHub State Polling Average Update
🟦 Kamala Harris: 281
🟥 Donald Trump: 257
🔴North Carolina moved 0.4pts in Trump’s direction.
🔵Nevada and Georgia flipped to Harris in our time-adjusted average; Trump still leads in a flat average.
See details →
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Kamala Harris made her 10th campaign stop in Pennsylvania today
📍Philadelphia x 3
📍Pittsburgh x 3
📍Rochester
📍Johnstown
📍Shanksville
📍Wilkes Barre
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If the current polling average in each state were the final result, Kamala Harris would win the Electoral College 276-262.
Our averages 👉
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Tuscarawas County, Ohio (New Philadelphia) is fully in
a whopping 46% swing left here from 2020
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Polling summary for September 12
👉 National
Reuters/Ipsos 🟦 Harris +5
Times/YouGov 🟦 Harris +4
👉 Michigan
Insider Advantage 🟥 Trump +1
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Polling summary for September 17
👉 National-
Monmouth 🟦 Harris +5
Angus Reid 🟦 Harris +4
👉 Arizona- Data Orbital 🟨 TIED
👉 Indiana- Emerson 🟥 Trump +17
👉 Missouri- Emerson 🟥 Trump +12
👉 Maryland- Emerson 🟦 Harris +32
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We have votes from early and mail voting now in for the New Jersey 10 special election
Joe Biden won this district by 62.5 points
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Polling summary for September 16
👉 Pennsylvania
Suffolk/USA Today 🟦 Harris +3
InsiderAdvantage 🟥 Trump +2
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Battleground state polling averages
👉 Kamala Harris leads in Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania
👉 Donald Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina
👉 Only A/B rated pollsters are included
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Niagara County is fully in
Kennedy (D) wins by 11% in the NY-26 portion of this county. Trump won this portion by ~7% so 18% 🔵 swing left here
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Our swing state polling averages of September 5th 2024
Electoral college tipping state (Pennsylvania) shaded yellow
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National polling average update as of September 16
👉 Kamala Harris leads by 2.7 points nationally in the last 28 days of polls
👉 She leads by 2.3 points in the time adjusted average (no cutoff date)
👉 Only A/B rated pollsters are included
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Tim Walz is holding a campaign event in Superior, Wisconsin today (across the border from Duluth, Minnesota)
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Minnesota 5th congressional district
more results in from Minneapolis now
🟩 Ilhan Omar 67524 votes (56%)
🟦 Don Samuels 51581 votes (43%)
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Check out our swing state polling dashboard ➡️
Minnesota 🟦 Harris +8%
Pennsylvania 🟦 Harris +2%
Wisconsin 🟦 Harris +1%
Michigan 🟦Harris +1%
Georgia 🟥 Trump +1%
North Carolina 🟥 Trump +3%
Arizona 🟥Trump +5%
Nevada ⬜️ *not enough polls*
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Battleground Polling Averages for September 13
👉 Kamala Harris continues to hold slim leads in the Rust Belt battlegrounds.
👉 4 Sun Belt states are within 0.6 points of either candidate.
👉 Trump now leads in Texas by >5 points.
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Polling summary for September 13
👉 National
Data for Progress 🟦 Harris +4
👉 North Carolina
TIPP 🟥 Trump +3
👉 New Hampshire
St. Anselm 🟦 Harris +8
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Campaign events by both candidates in the core swing states:
PA 🟦 Harris 8 🟥 Trump 8
NC 🟦 Harris 3 🟥 Trump 4
MI 🟦 Harris 3 🟥 Trump 3
WI 🟦 Harris 3 🟥 Trump 2
AZ 🟦 Harris 1 🟥 Trump 3
GA 🟦 Harris 2 🟥 Trump 1
NV 🟦 Harris 1 🟥 Trump 2
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If the current polling average in each state were the final result, Kamala Harris would win the Electoral College 276 to 262
Now featuring breakdowns for Nebraska and Maine
Our averages are available at
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National polling average update as of September 17th
👉 Kamala Harris leads by 2.9 points nationally
👉 Only A/B rated pollsters are included
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Future Campaign Events 🗓️
September 12, 204
👉 Donald Trump will be holding a rally in Tuscon, Arizona
👉 Kamala Harris will be holding two rallies: Charlotte, North Carolina and Greensboro, North Carolina
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After another huge polling day, here is where our polling averages currently stand:
👉 Only A/B rated polls are included
👉 Harris up in MI, WI, PA, NV
👉 NC is virtually tied
👉 Trump up in GA and AZ
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Election 2024 Updates 📩📬🗳️
👉 Wisconsin to start mailing absentee ballots on Thursday, September 19
👉 Virginia will be the first state to start in-person early voting on Friday, September 20
👉 North Carolina to start sending mail ballots on Tuesday, September 24
👉 Michigan
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Future Campaign Events
🗓️ THU, September 19, 2024
👉 Kamala Harris and Oprah Winfrey will be together in Detroit, Michigan for a "Unite for America" virtual event
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Battleground Polling Averages for September 12
👉 Kamala Harris leads in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania by a 1-2 point margin
👉 She has a slim lead in Nevada and North Carolina
👉 Trump has a slim lead in Georgia and Arizona
👉 Only A/B rated polls included
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Here's the final precinct map for the special election in NY-26 last night.
2020 result: D+24
Last night: D+37
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VoteHub State Polling Average Update
🟦Kamala Harris (D): 270
🟥Donald Trump (R): 268
Toss Up: ≤ 1.5
Tilt: > 1.5
Lean: > 3
Likely: > 5
Solid: consensus
See the details:
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National polling average update as of September 15th
👉 Kamala Harris leads by 2.7 points nationally
👉 Only A/B rated pollsters are included
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As of 11:00 PM ET Monday, here are where Congressional Democrats stand on endorsing Kamala Harris:
House Dems
🟨 188 Endorsed Kamala Harris
🟪 2 Open Process/Convention
⬜ 22 No comment
Senate Dems
🟨 42 Endorsed Kamala Harris
🟪 2 Open Process/Convention
⬜ 7 No comment
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Future Campaign Events
🗓️ FRI, September 20 2024
👉 Kamala Harris will hold a rally in Madison, Wisconsin and give a speech in Atlanta, Georgia
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Final unofficial results for the primary partisan competition for the US Senate race
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Future Campaign Events
🗓️ SAT, September 21, 2024
👉 Tim Walz will be holding a campaign event in Allentown, Pennsylvania
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Future Campaign Events 🗓️
September 14, 2024
👉 Tim Walz will be holding a campaign event in Superior, Wisconsin
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Polling summary -September 9th-
👉 National
Harvard/Harris poll 🟨 Tied
Pew Research 🟨 Tied
👉 North Carolina
Survey USA 🟦 Harris +3
Quinnipiac 🟦 Harris +3
FAU 🟥 Trump +1
👉 Georgia
Quinnipiac 🟥 Trump +3
FAU 🟥 Trump +2
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Election 2024 Updates 📩📬🗳️
⛳️ Wisconsin HAS begun mailing absentee ballots to voters who requested them
🥇 Virginia will be the first state to start in-person early voting on Fri/ Sep 20
📬 North Carolina starts sending mail ballots on Tue/ Sep 24
🎓 University of Michigan
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Future Campaign Events 🗓️
September 13, 2024
👉 Kamala Harris will be holding a rally in Wilkes Barre, Pennsylvania
👉 Donald Trump will be holding a rally in Las Vegas, Nevada
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Our battleground state polling averages as of Saturday evening, September 7.
The electoral college tipping point state (Pennsylvania) is shaded in yellow.
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Future Campaign Events 🗓️
September 13, 2024
Tim Walz will be holding three campaign events
👉 Wausau, Wisconsin
👉 Grand Rapids, Michigan
👉 Lansing, Michigan
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>80% election day precincts are now reporting for NJ-10. LaMonica McIver (D) leads by 69.3 points.
(Biden won the district by 62.5 points in 2020 as a benchmark)
276/288 reported in Essex county
126/157 reported in Union county
64/99 reported in Hudson county
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Future Campaign Events
🗓️ SAT, September 21, 2024
👉 Tim Walz will be holding a campaign event in Allentown, Pennsylvania
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Future Campaign Events
🗓️ September 12, 2024
👉 Tim Walz will be holding a campaign event in Grand Rapids, Michigan
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Here is a national polling update as of August 19. The Democratic National Convention starts tonight.
Kamala Harris currently leads by 1.4% in our 28 day rolling national average.
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Election 2024 Updates 📩📬🗳️
⛳️ ALL Wisconsin absentee ballots sent by end of day today
⛳️ Montgomery County, Pennsylvania has mail ballots available
🥇 Virginia is the first state to start in-person early voting TOMORROW
📬 North Carolina starts sending mail ballots on Tue,
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NEW article out: What really happened in the OH-06 special election?
@arcuve
takes a deep dive into ecological inference to explore the link between college attainment and voting, revealing intriguing insights despite the low-turnout affair.
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National polling update with several new polls out this week:
Joe Biden is ahead by 0.5% in the national average in our 28 day average
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Kleinjen’s (D) 20 point win over Ebel (R) in Ottawa County, MI represents a 21 point 🔵 shift left from 2020. Shifts were mostly uniform across all precincts.
See results ➡️
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