Dan 🥥 🌴
@writcertiorari
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I tweet for me and me alone. You are welcome to join me
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Almost 4% of Georgia’s population is a Harris campaign volunteer.
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NEW: sources in the Trump campaign tell me they’ve “given up” on Michigan, Wisconsin, *and* Pennsylvania.
The former President has all his eggs in one basket: flipping New York.
Explains his Uniondale rally today.
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He’s 10/10. Gore won. The keys are still nonsense tho.
NEW
Prof. Allan Lichtman, a historian who has successfully predicted the last 9 of 10 presidential elections, predicts Kamala Harris will win in November.
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Donald Trump will announce a new proposal today, per The Detroit News:
That under a second Trump administration, IVF treatments will be paid for by the government.
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I do not trust a polling company that denies election results
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was anyone else's like removed from this post to bring it back down under 1M?
@ElonMusk
you're a loser
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At what point does it become socially acceptable to stop denying the reality that he's a Nazi
JUST NOW:
@realDonaldTrump
leans heavily into race science by telling
@hughhewitt
that you can tell whether migrants are predisposed to committing murder by "their genes."
"We got a lot of bad genes in our country right now," he adds.
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To borrow a phrase: holy shlit.
Dem firewall going into yesterday: 33.7%
Dem firewall going into today: 41.7%
Dems will hit their firewall with 227,359 more banked net votes
Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day 4
📥 344,215 votes cast
🔵 DEM: 238,877 - 24.6% returned
🔴 GOP: 76,236 - 17.1% returned
🟡 IND: 29,102 - 15.6% returned
VBM Splits: 🔵 69.4% / 🔴 22.1% / 🟡 8.5%
🔷 DEM firewall: +162,641
📈 Return Edge: D+7.5
Thoughts ⬇️
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What if it’s +4?
Be glad with tomorrow’s Iowa poll if it is Trump+12-15.
“Eh” if it’s between Trump+8-11.
“LET’S GO!” if it’s over Trump+15.
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In case some of you were wondering why Harris has to appeal to both sides: look at this headline and where’s it’s being published.
It’s almost like the campaign knows what it’s doing
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Can we talk about how she went to console her after the town hall ended
📌 Kamala Harris responds to a citizen who, in tears, speaks about her undocumented mother.
📺 Watch the full town hall tonight, October 10th, at 10pm ET/ 9C/ 7PAC on
@Univision
,
@ViX
, and our digital platforms.
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Immediately conceding that you lied in the next tweet lmfao
Hi, I'm JD Vance. I wrote my own book, unlike Kamala Harris, who copied hers from Wikipedia.
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Firewall goes from 41.7% —>48.6%
Net votes left: 200,594.
Keep it up folks
🦅Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day 5
📥 416,652 votes cast
🔵 DEM: 285,072 - 29% returned
🔴 GOP: 95,666 - 20.1% returned
🟡 IND: 35,914 - 18.9% returned
VBM Splits: 🔵 68.4% / 🔴 23% / 🟡 8.6%
🔷 DEM firewall: +189,406
📈 Return Edge: D+8.9
Thoughts ⬇️
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Absolutely everyone in these replies needs to go outside
Parks and Recreation is the single most "Obama-era" show I can think of and it'd be torn to shreds by audiences if it aired today
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Rasmussen saying NYT is overestimating Trump……..
NYT's AZ poll is right of us by 3 points, but it's a little too fat on Trump supporters IMO.
The real answer could be in the middle.
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NBC has Harris+6 in the full field.
Harris also has the “largest turnaround in popularity since George Bush after the 9/11 attacks”
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The infobox for Trump’s 2020 Tulsa rally has a casualties section with just Herman Cain on it 😭😭😭😭
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Firewall: 58.6% —> 66.1%.
Net votes left: 132,247
🦅 Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day 7
📥 631,725 votes cast
🔵 DEM: 416,239 - 40.6% returned
🔴 GOP: 158,486 - 31.8% returned
🟡 IND: 57,000 - 27.6% returned
VBM Splits: 🔵 65.9% / 🔴 25.1% / 🟡 9%
🔷 DEM firewall: +257,753
📈 Return Edge: D+8.8
Thoughts ⬇️
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His convention bump is the stupidest thing in the fucking world bc no her polling has barely moved and yet here we are
🚨 New Nate Silver Model - win probability
🔵 Harris 58%
🔴 Trump 42%
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Do you see what a state-level Democratic trifecta can achieve
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if this mf doesn't cough up $50B...
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PopCrave is so regime-pilled
The release of Kamala Harris’ medical records draws contrast with Donald Trump who has only shared limited information about his health after claiming he’ll “very gladly” release his medical records to the public.
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Peltola raising the Dems House chances by 5% single-handedly is insane. Insane. Love that diva.
@SplitTicket_
Oh, in case you're wondering: Peltola's absolute dominance in Alaska makes that seat lean blue, which means Democrats now have a 63% chance of taking back the House at this point (up from 58% before).
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Why is a larger Harris lead (+3) described as “leads w/in MOE” whereas a smaller Trump lead (+2) is him being “ahead”
NEW
@CookPolitical
Swing State Project polling out this AM --- full analysis from
@amyewalter
and from me on Senate race
Harris leads w/in MoE in AZ (+2), MI (+3), NV (+1), PA (+1), and WI (+2). Trump is ahead 49%-47% in GA, and 49%-49% tie in NC
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Firewall: 48.6% —> 58.6%.
10% jump over the long weekend.
161,373 more netted votes for the firewall.
🦅 Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day 6
📥 536,212 votes cast
🔵 DEM: 358,703 - 35.4% returned
🔴 GOP: 130,076 - 26.8% returned
🟡 IND: 47,433 - 23.5% returned
VBM Splits: 🔵 66.9% / 🔴 24.3% / 🟡 8.8%
🔷 DEM firewall: +228,627
📈 Return Edge: D+8.6
Thoughts ⬇️
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If you took GA R+6 seriously you are dutifully bound to take ND R+10 seriously
President (North Dakota)
Trump (R) 50%
Harris (D) 40%
9/23-9/26 by Lake Research Partners (1.2/3 rating)
500 LV
NOTE: partisan (D) poll
Woof! Hope this was helpful!
Source:
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This campaign is so smart man
Happened to park my car near a Ukrainian Orthodox Church in Philly over the weekend and discovered this post card on it this morning.
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🔒 🔁
If you're going to try and discern which NYT/Siena poll is 'right' -- and I really would not, just toss it in the average / wait to see the next round -- I think there's a very plausible way to make the case for each poll as 'right'
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Everyone saying this is so frustrating. The juror said he follows Trump’s posts on Truth. He also follows Cohen on “Twitter, which [he refuses] to call X”. He has a masters degree + listens to the Mueller She Wrote pod. He’s a resist lib! If the jury has a problem it isn’t him.
I can see one reason why Trump's hush-money trial won't be going anywhere.
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Dem firewall grows by 19,256 yesterday. Another day where it grows more than it “has to”.
Firewall 33.7% of the way complete. Up from 28.7% yesterday.
🦅 Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day 3
📥 266,995 votes cast
🔵 DEM: 188,185 - 19.6% returned
🔴 GOP: 56,791 - 13% returned
🟡 IND: 22,019 - 12.1% returned
VBM Splits: 🔵 70.5% / 🔴 21.3% / 🟡 8.2%
🔹 DEM firewall: +131,394
📈 Return Edge: D+6.6
Thoughts ⬇️
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🚨 WYOMING Democrats are holding close to a 3-to-1 lead over Republicans among Pell Grant recipients who start a business that operates for three years in disadvantaged communities, despite mail also now coming in.
Bad, bad news, if this is replicated elsewhere.
🚨 VIRGINIA Republicans are holding close to a 3-to-1 lead over Democrats among the lowest propensity voters, despite mail also now coming in.
Bad, bad news, if this is replicated elsewhere.
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This happened 43 days ago
They want you to forget
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“Parks and Recreation is neoliberal copaganda” have you called your mom lately?
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@swfl4liberty
So what you’re saying taking action to avert an environmental emergency is important and effective if done right through international cooperation?
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@MAGAMichelleS69
Michelle this is quite literally a 2020 Harris proposal. I made this picture. LMFAO
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This is the most ass backwards lie I’ve seen in my life.
Kari Lake lost and got nominated again.
Blake Masters lost and got nominated again.
Hung Cao lost and got nominated again.
DONALD J TRUMP LOST AND GOT NOMINATED AGAIN.
One thing republicans do better than democrats is when a republican loses their party doesn’t still go to them for advice
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So which is it
Successful movements have radical, progressive & moderate flanks. We need ppl working inside the Democratic Party & we need grassroots organizers & we need protesters. Find your position & play it, but don’t fight your teammates bc they play a different position.
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Rasmussen trying to discredit Selzer is like a 7 year old hockey kid trying to discredit Wayne Gretzky
Trump +18 in Iowa to Trump +4 has got to be one of the most stunning and ridiculous Democrat comebacks in the history of politics.
I've polled over 11k respondents about Harris, and she just doesn't poll that differently than Biden.
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It's this vs an adjudicated rapist and soon-to-be convicted felon.
Last year, a young man named Harry wrote me a letter about what it’s like to live with a stutter. Tonight, I met him and his family in Milwaukee and shared some techniques I use to overcome mine.
My message to Harry was simple: don’t let anyone tell you what you can or can’t do.
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Brit Smith posted this 2 hours ago and it’s already approaching 200k likes. Jojo you are DONE
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@thomaswdees
One bad poll of adult shows VA tied, most recent ones have her up 10. Cute!
Now show the polls where he leads in NH and NM
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@rwylmsupporter
@PopCrave
He’s amazing he got free school lunches for every child in the state
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@mralt1901
It’s a cult. Celebrating this would be one of the least deluded things they’ve done lately
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I hate all of you who gave him money
George Santos says he has made more in one week on Cameo than his entire annual salary in Congress.
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@noahpasaran
She literally, and I mean the word literally literally, never stopped saying “we’re not going back”. It’s also funny that you got the slogan wrong in trying to tout the efficacy of the slogan
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Re: Harris on Rogan:
Extremely intelligent woman vs gorilla who agrees with the last thing he hears at any given moment.
She’ll be fine.
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Joe Biden walking out of the White House with a stomach suspiciously-shaped like 7 Governors: h-hi everybod- *BUUUUUURP*
This picture begs the question: 10 governors were at the White House meeting with Biden. Why did only three of them come out afterward?
Even if some didn't want to talk to reporters, it would have displayed a united front.
Instead we only got Walz, Moore and Hochul.
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Let me get this fuckign straight: FNC has
Trump+2 national
Harris+6 in MI+PA+WI+NV+AZ+GA+NC
If you're still believing polls after this I have no idea what to tell you
🦊🚨 NEW Fox News Poll, National
PRESIDENT
Harris - 48
Trump - 50
Oct 11-14, 2024, RV ±3
Harris, however, is ahead by 6 points among voters from the seven key battleground states.
Full results from the Polling Unit:
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@Renlyyynnn
And it’s meaningless! Do you think she’ll listen to her council if they disagree with her like bffr
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We can tell
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@firebornnn
Not nonsense nonsense but like. Idk. Unscientific. And it’s not a science! I just mean it’s vibes-y which isn’t the worst thing but it’s not infallible
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@weather_forkast
Schumer was a no for procedural reasons so as to allow a re vote down the road. Looking into the NVs
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"Only one thing is for sure this election, Nate Silver will tweet 'Actually this is exactly what I said could happen'"
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@ILbrandonite
The ratio going on in the comments is nice at least since it’s near impossible to actually ratio on TikTok
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Already conceding
INBOX:
@AZGOP
will not hold an election night party this year, says they’re redirecting funds for candidates and anti-Prop 140 efforts.
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We are barreling into Kamala Harris net approved of at rapid speed
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AOC: healthcare shouldn’t bankrupt you
MTG: the speaker of the House should be assassinated
Centrists: wow the fringes of each party are crazy
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The Gen Z vibe shift is most clearly exemplified by this old BidenHQ post hitting FYPs as a KamalaHQ post.
Look at the old comments and how negative they are. Look at the new comments and how positive they are. For the same exact post.
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We tried to warn you. But you wanted a show. Kamalaise has become Kamalamentum once again and you’re busy throwing a temper tanTrump. Democrats are Galluping to a blue tsunami.
Contested convention? Not too late for Youngkin/Romney.
Do you consider yourself a Democrat or a Republican (+ Leaners)
🔵 Democrat - 49% (+4)
🔴 Republican - 45%
Last poll - 🔴 Republican +3
Gallup
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This Harris speech is an everyday 8/10. That makes it a 2024 15/10.
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This framing im crying
Donald Trump makes campaign stop in Coachella, California as Kamala Harris is polling 24 points ahead of him in her home state.
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