Joshua Smithley
@blockedfreq
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Aviation enthusiast w/ degrees in Aviation Management & Airline Operations @ Purdue University. Election junkie. #Pennsylvania elections guy & data analyst.
Joined July 2019
🚨 Projection: Donald Trump is poised to take Pennsylvania and its 19 electoral votes. Not enough juice for Harris with what's left outstanding.
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Well, this isn't going to be a low or moderate turnout election. I can tell you that much.
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New PA bellwether county releases from @muhlenberg_poll's recent PA-07 poll. 🦅 POTUS. Northampton. 🔵 Harris: 51% (+4).🔴 Trump: 47%. Lehigh. 🔵 Harris: 52% (+7).🔴 Trump: 45%. Northampton and Lehigh were 49.8-49.1 and 53.2-45.6 for Biden, respectively.
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🚨 PHILADELPHIA COUNTY FIRST DROP. 🦅 POTUS. 🔵 Harris: 99,295 (87.23%).🔴 Trump: 13,177 (11.58%. 🏛️ PA SEN. 🔵 Casey: 97,070 (86.24%).🔴 McCormick: 12,474 (11.08%). Also early over here, but so far, the necessary targets are being met.
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🦅 Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day 10. 📥 921,720 votes cast. 🔵 DEM: 580,073 - 54.2% returned.🔴 GOP: 254,424 - 46.4% returned.🟡 IND: 87,223 - 38.8% returned. VBM Splits: 🔵 62.9% / 🔴 27.6% / 🟡 9.5%. 🗳️ Ballot Edge: 🔵+325,649.📈 Return Edge: 🔵+7.8. Thoughts ⬇️.
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🦅 Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day 21. 📥 1,777,019 votes cast. 🔵 DEM: 990,189 - 82.5% returned.🔴 GOP: 583,791 - 81.6% returned.🟡 IND: 203,039 - 72.0% returned. VBM Splits: 🔵 55.7% / 🔴 32.9% / 🟡 11.4%. 🗳️ Ballot Edge: 🔵+406,398.📈 Return Edge: 🔵+0.9. Thoughts⬇️.
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🦅 Pennsylvania - Final Thoughts. It's been a long election cycle with ups and downs, but my gut feelings + data are about the same as they were in August. I think VP Harris is favored to win PA by 2 pts, give or take 1 while Senator Casey wins by 4-5. Let's break down why. ⬇️.
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I don't think people understand the massacre Republicans suffered down-ballot in PA tonight. Obviously, PA SC was the focus and Allegheny had specific local factors, but Dems swept almost everything in winnable races from school boards, commissioners, etc. Especially in SEPA.
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🦅 Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day ONE. 📥 137,654 votes cast. 🔵 DEM: 100,845 - 10.7% returned.🔴 GOP: 26,148 - 6.2% returned.🟡 IND: 10,661 - 6.1% returned. VBM Splits: 🔵 72.6% / 🔴 19% / 🟡 8.4%. DEM firewall: +74,697. Thoughts ⬇️.
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🦅 Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day 20. 📥 1,742,908 votes cast. 🔵 DEM: 973,363 - 81.1% returned.🔴 GOP: 572,481 - 80.1% returned.🟡 IND: 197,064 - 69.9% returned. VBM Splits: 🔵 55.9% / 🔴 32.8% / 🟡 11.3%. 🗳️ Ballot Edge: 🔵+400,882.📈 Return Edge: 🔵+1. Thoughts⬇️.
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Ok, buckle in. Here's how Pennsylvania is going to play out tomorrow. You'll want your notifications on since I'll be live tweeting updates throughout the day regarding turnout in certain areas, new developments, etc. Once the polls close, this is where things get interesting.
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🦅 Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Election Eve. 📥 1,790,319 votes cast. 🔵 DEM: 997,450 - 83.1% returned.🔴 GOP: 587,546 - 82.1% returned.🟡 IND: 205,323 - 72.8% returned. VBM Splits: 🔵 55.7% / 🔴 32.8% / 🟡 11.5%. 🗳️ Ballot Edge: 🔵+409,904.📈 Return Edge: 🔵+1.
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At first, I thought I was being paranoid when some of those numbers didn’t feel right as new apps were coming in across certain areas of the state. And sure enough… lol. This is one of the biggest voter registration fraud cases in PA I’ve ever seen.
BREAKING: Lancaster County team finds and stops suspected voter registration fraud operation. Press conference at 11:30 AM. Livestream can be found here:
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🦅 Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Election Day 1. 📥 1,877,992 votes cast. 🔵 DEM: 1,037,783 - 86.4% returned.🔴 GOP: 618,205 - 86.4% returned.🟡 IND: 222,004 - 78.6% returned. VBM Splits: 🔵 55.3% / 🔴 32.9% / 🟡 11.8%. 🗳️ Ballot Edge: 🔵+419,578.📈 Return Edge: (=).
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Slight step aside from PA to give a special shoutout to Tim Ryan. He may have lost, but he single-handedly allowed D's to gain a clean sweep of all 5 gettable congressional seats in OH (wtf?).
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🦅 Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day 6. 📥 536,212 votes cast. 🔵 DEM: 358,703 - 35.4% returned.🔴 GOP: 130,076 - 26.8% returned.🟡 IND: 47,433 - 23.5% returned. VBM Splits: 🔵 66.9% / 🔴 24.3% / 🟡 8.8%. 🔷 DEM firewall: +228,627.📈 Return Edge: D+8.6. Thoughts ⬇️.
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🦅 Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day 11. 📥 1,051,655 votes cast. 🔵 DEM: 649,060 - 60.1% returned.🔴 GOP: 300,862 - 53.6% returned.🟡 IND: 101,733 - 44.5% returned. VBM Splits: 🔵 61.7% / 🔴 28.6% / 🟡 9.7%. Ballot Edge: 🔵+348,198.Return Edge: 🔵+6.5. Thoughts ⬇️.
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⏰ Philadelphia County Turnout - 8 AM. 🗳️ VBM Ballots: 185,255.📅 Election Day: 115,309. TOTAL: 300,564. 📈42% of 2016; 40% of 2020.
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🚨 New - Suffolk PA poll. 🦅 POTUS. 🔵 Harris: 49%.🔴 Trump: 46%. Harris+3. Harris wins bellwethers Erie and Northampton by mid single digits here (+4 and +5 respectively).
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🚨 On the heels of Suffolk, we have a new @QuinnipiacPoll for PA. 🦅 POTUS. 🔵 Harris: 51%.🔴 Trump: 45%. Harris+6. 🏛️ PA SEN. 🔵 Casey: 52%.🔴 McCormick: 43%. Casey+9. First time Harris has hit 51% in a PA poll. 3 improvement for her over the last Q-Pac.
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🦅 Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day 7. 📥 631,725 votes cast. 🔵 DEM: 416,239 - 40.6% returned.🔴 GOP: 158,486 - 31.8% returned.🟡 IND: 57,000 - 27.6% returned. VBM Splits: 🔵 65.9% / 🔴 25.1% / 🟡 9%. 🔷 DEM firewall: +257,753.📈 Return Edge: D+8.8. Thoughts ⬇️.
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✨ FINAL Marist Pennsylvania poll (1,400 LVs, 10/27 - 10/30). 🦅 POTUS. 🔵 Harris: 50% (+2).🔴 Trump: 48%. 🏛️ PA SEN. 🔵 Casey: 50% (+2).🔴 McCormick: 48%. One of the best recent PA pollsters bar none, IMO. I hold them in very high esteem.
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Feels like it's been memory-holed that ~160K people in PA voted for Haley in a closed GOP primary back in April after she dropped out w/ the strongest concentrations being in moderate/ancestral R areas. Keep that in mind in the context of some of Harris' campaign choices.
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🦅 Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day 15. 📥 1,402,907 votes cast. 🔵 DEM: 819,112 - 70.3% returned.🔴 GOP: 438,017 - 65.9% returned.🟡 IND: 145,778 - 54.8% returned. VBM Splits: 🔵 58.4% / 🔴 31.2% / 🟡 10.4%. 🗳️ Ballot Edge: 🔵+381,095.📈 Return Edge: 🔵+4.4. Thoughts⬇️.
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🚨 We have a rare Friday night PA poll out from @MassINCPolling, sponsored by @SpotlightPA (800 LV). 🦅 POTUS (H2H). 🔵 Harris: 52%.🔴 Trump: 47%. Harris+5. 🏛️ PA SEN. 🔵 Casey: 49%.🔴 McCormick: 42%. Casey+7. Good pollster. And yes, they weighed by region and appropriate demos.
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🦅 Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day 2. 📥 217,366 votes cast. 🔵 DEM: 155,931 - 16.3% returned.🔴 GOP: 43,793 - 10.2% returned.🟡 IND: 17,642 - 10% returned. VBM Splits: 🔵 71.7% / 🔴20.1% / 🟡 8.2%. 🔹 DEM firewall: +112,138.📈 Return Edge: D+6.1. Thoughts ⬇️.
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🦅 Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day 9. 📥 791,804 votes cast. 🔵 DEM: 506,320 - 48.4% returned.🔴 GOP: 212,015 - 40.4% returned.🟡 IND: 73,469 - 34.1% returned. VBM Splits: 🔵 63.9% / 🔴 26.8% / 🟡 9.3%. 🔷 DEM firewall: +294,305.📈 Return Edge: D+8. ⬇️ Thoughts.
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🦅 Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day 14. 📥 1,284,742 votes cast. 🔵 DEM: 763,072 - 68.1% returned.🔴 GOP: 390,878 - 63.4% returned.🟡 IND: 130,792 - 52.8% returned. VBM Splits: 🔵 59.4% / 🔴 30.4% / 🟡 10.2%. 🗳️ Ballot Edge: 🔵+371,194.📈 Return Edge: 🔵+4.7. Thoughts⬇️.
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🦅 Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day 12. 📥 1,123,509 votes cast. 🔵 DEM: 684,724 - 62.7% returned.🔴 GOP: 328,074 - 56.7% returned.🟡 IND: 110,711 - 47.3% returned. VBM Splits: 🔵 60.9% / 🔴 29.2% / 🟡 9.9% . 🗳️ Ballot Edge: 🔵+356,650.📈 Return Edge: 🔵+6.0. Thoughts⬇️.
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🚨 ALLEGHENY COUNTY FIRST DROP (VBM). 🦅 POTUS. 🔵 Harris: 133,680 (73.1%).🔴 Trump: 49,264 (26.9%). 🏛️ PA SEN. 🔵 Casey: 131,848 (73.2%).🔴 McCormick: 48,303 (26.8%).
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Philadelphia seems to have taken TIPP nuking it out of existence personally. Guys, I am a realist, but Election Day turnout here is astronomical so far.
Philly says #LFG. "Voter turnout is extremely high,” said Philadelphia Democratic Party Chairman Robert Brady, the former congressman. “I’ve been doing elections for 50 years chair and I’ve been chairman for 40 years and now it’s the highest we’ve ever seen for this point.".
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I will say this - turnout in the Philly collars and Allegheny are on track to be very, very high. Wouldn’t be shocked if they got close to or hit 2020 turnout. I encourage you to think about how that bodes as far as math is concerned for the rest of the state.
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🦅 Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day 13. 📥 1,208,063 votes cast. 🔵 DEM: 726,619 - 65.6% returned.🔴 GOP: 360,527 - 60.3% returned.🟡 IND: 120,917 - 50.2% returned. VBM Splits: 🔵 60.2% / 🔴 29.8% / 🟡 10% . 🗳️ Ballot Edge: 🔵+366,092.📈 Return Edge: 🔵+5.3. Thoughts⬇️.
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Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day 4. 📥 344,215 votes cast. 🔵 DEM: 238,877 - 24.6% returned.🔴 GOP: 76,236 - 17.1% returned.🟡 IND: 29,102 - 15.6% returned. VBM Splits: 🔵 69.4% / 🔴 22.1% / 🟡 8.5%. 🔷 DEM firewall: +162,641.📈 Return Edge: D+7.5. Thoughts ⬇️.
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As far as PA is concerned, even if Selzer is moderately off for whatever reason, this means that the polls and subsamples we’ve gotten of Harris holding up oddly well or a little better than Biden in rural counties, PA-08, etc. are likely true.
New @DMRegister/@jaselzer poll of Iowa. 🟦 Kamala Harris: 47% (+3).🟥 Donald Trump: 44%. 808 LVs, MOE 3.4%.
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There is still a ways to go and a lot can change in three weeks, but as far as PA is concerned, the last few days have been the most revealing thus far when it comes to the POTUS race since the start of election season. Why? Let's break a few key factors down. ⬇️.
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🚨 With 100% of precincts reporting, the (tentative) final results for PA HD-140 are as follows:. 🔵 Jim Prokopiak: 67.3% (6,462).🔴 Candace Cabanas: 32.1% (3,079). D+35.2 in the end. An absolutely astonishing overperformance in this Biden+10 seat by roughly ~25 points.
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🦅 Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day 8. 📥 692,561 votes cast. 🔵 DEM: 450,379 - 43.5% returned.🔴 GOP: 179,208 - 35% returned.🟡 IND: 62,974 - 29.9% returned. VBM Splits: 🔵 65% / 🔴 25.9% / 🟡 9.1%. 🔷 DEM firewall: +271,171.📈 Return Edge: D+8.5. Thoughts ⬇️.
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🦅 Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day 16. 📥 1,473,825 votes cast. 🔵 DEM: 849,849 - 72.2% returned.🔴 GOP: 468,067 - 68.3% returned.🟡 IND: 155,909 - 57.4% returned. VBM splits: 🔵 57.7% / 🔴 31.7% / 🟡 10.6%. 🗳️ Ballot Edge: 🔵+381,782.📈 Return Edge: 🔵+3.9.
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Since Allegheny is likely going to be one of the first vote drops on Election Night, consider these county numbers:. 2016: Clinton: 56.55%, lost by 0.7. 2020: Biden: 59.6%, won by 1.2. 2022: Fetterman: 63.4%, won by 5. The closer Harris is to 60% or over, the better her chances.
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Got a bit of a respite from the quality polling drought this morning from Washington Post/George Mason. PA presidential full field w/ LVs. 🦅 POTUS. 🔵 Harris: 49%.🔴 Trump: 47%. Harris+2.
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Good morning! Hot off the press is a brand new NYT/Siena poll of PA (10/7 - 10/10, 857 LV). 🦅 POTUS. 🔵 Harris: 50%.🔴 Trump: 47%. Harris+3 (+4 in a full field test, 49-45). 🏛️ PA SEN. 🔵 Casey: 48%.🔴 McCormick: 44%. Casey+4. Essentially unchanged from their last 2 PA surveys.
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🚨 NEW @SusquehannaPR poll of PA is out! (7/22 - 7/28, 600 LV). 🔵 Harris: 47%.🔴 Trump: 43%. Harris+4. Another in-state firm weighs in and the VP is up, complementing the Liberty / BF one from last week.
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🚨 New PA poll out from @Liberty4pa / @BullfinchGroup (800 RV, 9/26 - 9/29). This was commissioned by a local GOP group. 🦅 POTUS. 🔵 Harris: 50%.🔴 Trump: 46%. Harris+4. 🏛️ PA SEN . 🔵 Casey: 52%.🔴 McCormick: 42%. Casey+10. 🗳️ Generic Ballot. 🔵 DEM: 43%.🔴 GOP: 40%. D+3.
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If you’re wondering why Harris is breaking out a bit in PA polling, particularly with the +4s and +5s, some of it is due to her shoring up her standing with indies and moderates. Her campaign’s push to define her as less extreme/more median than Trump is paying off (for now).
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🚨 The first PA in-state firm to field a poll post-debate is here (it's technically morning!). @FandMPoll finds. 🦅 POTUS. 🔵 Harris: 49%.🔴 Trump: 46%. Harris+3 . 🏛️ PA SEN. 🔵 Casey: 48%.🔴 McCormick: 40%. Casey+8. 🗳️ Generic Ballot. 🔵 DEM: 47%.🔴 GOP: 42%. D+5.
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🦅 Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day 3. 📥 266,995 votes cast. 🔵 DEM: 188,185 - 19.6% returned.🔴 GOP: 56,791 - 13% returned.🟡 IND: 22,019 - 12.1% returned. VBM Splits: 🔵 70.5% / 🔴 21.3% / 🟡 8.2%. 🔹 DEM firewall: +131,394.📈 Return Edge: D+6.6. Thoughts ⬇️.
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🦅Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day 5. 📥 416,652 votes cast . 🔵 DEM: 285,072 - 29% returned .🔴 GOP: 95,666 - 20.1% returned .🟡 IND: 35,914 - 18.9% returned. VBM Splits: 🔵 68.4% / 🔴 23% / 🟡 8.6%. 🔷 DEM firewall: +189,406.📈 Return Edge: D+8.9. Thoughts ⬇️.
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New PA-10 poll out from local firm @SusquehannaPR. Fun fact - they’re HQed in this district. 🦅 POTUS. 🔵 Harris: 46%.🔴 Trump: 41%. Harris+5. 🏛️ Congress. 🔵 Stelson: 48%.🔴 Perry: 39%. Stelson+9. Perry is probably in hot water. He’s being outspent heavily as well.
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✨ Our last remaining in-state firm (@muhlenberg_poll) has seen fit to drop their final PA poll. 🦅 POTUS. 🔵 Harris: 49% (+2).🔴 Trump: 47%. 🏛️ PA SEN. 🔵 Casey: 49% (+3).🔴 McCormick: 46%. Was a tie last time and aligns pretty well with their PA-07 survey, Marist, etc.
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🗳️ PA Net Voter Reg Changes in Counties of Interest: Biden Dropout --> Today. Allegheny: 🔵+93.Bucks: 🔴+471.Chester: 🔵+357.Cumberland: 🔴+100.Dauphin: 🔵+34.Delaware: 🔵+462.Lehigh: 🔴+91.Montgomery: 🔵+548.Philly: 🔵+2,038. Yes, this is back! With some caveats, fwiw. (1/3).
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It took a lot of calling around and checking on precincts because PA is very unfriendly about ED turnout reports, but as far as Philadelphia is concerned, they are pretty much at 2020 turnout about now. Solid chance they get to 70% overall, which is bonkers.
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✨ CMC-Rose Institute/@YouGov Pennsylvania poll (1,043 LVs, full field test). 🦅 POTUS. 🔵 Harris: 50% (+2).🔴 Trump: 48%. 🏛️ PA SEN. 🔵 Casey: 50% (+8).🔴 McCormick: 42%. These are with leaners pushed and are part of a PA-specific sample lifted out of CMC's national poll.
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Some news out of Montgomery County - I've received word that the # of mail-in ballots being processed for the 2024 general election is going to exceed 2022's by a decent chunk. This is a moving target, but turnout is likely going to track close to 2020 (~84%). Good news for D's.
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When Harris took over as the Democratic nominee in late July, I was 50/50 on her odds in PA. Today, I'd say they're at 65/35. The current range of outcomes vary from Harris+4 to Trump+2, though with EV data and more good polls coming soon, those numbers won't be static.
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Honestly, I'm kind of surprised the Puerto Rican thing has taken off the way it has. It may not impact votes or change trajectories, but on the off chance it does by even 0.1% or something, it was a poor choice as far as PA is concerned w/ almost half a million of them there.
Trump’s Puerto Rico fallout is ‘spreading like wildfire’ in Pennsylvania
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🚨 New @SusquehannaPR poll is out!. *POTUS*. Biden: 46.8%.Trump: 39.3%. Biden+7.5. *PA SEN*. Casey (D-Inc): 45.9%.McCormick (R): 42.1%. Casey+3.8. Told you guys it’d be spicy. 👀🔥.
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🚨 New @QuinnipiacPoll of PA is out. 🦅 POTUS. 🔵 Harris: 48%.🔴 Trump: 45%. Harris+3. 🏛️ PA SEN. 🔵 Casey: 52%.🔴 McCormick: 44%. Casey+8.
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Let me put it this way - with how congressional Dems are doing in the battleground PA districts, if they end up performing as fundamentals + polling suggests, Harris would have to run behind them by at least few points to be in hot water. How likely is that? You decide.
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Good morning! Surprise PA poll this AM from Fabrizo/Impact Research on behalf of AARP (1,398 LV, 9/17 - 9/24). 🦅 POTUS. 🔵 Harris: 49%.🔴 Trump: 47%. Harris+2. 🏛️ PA SEN. 🔵 Casey: 49%.🔴 McCormick: 45%. Casey+4. Previous poll was in April - was Trump+5, so 7 pt shift left.
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🦅 Pennsylvania - VBM Ballots ED Update 2 . 📥 1,892,614 votes cast . 🔵 DEM: 1,044,697 - 86.9% returned.🔴 GOP: 622,861 - 86.9% returned.🟡 IND: 225,056 - 79.7% returned. VBM Splits: 🔵 55.1% / 🔴 32.9% / 🟡 11.9% . 🗳️ Ballot Edge: 🔵+421,836 .📈 Return Edge: (=).
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🦅 Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Election Eve 2. 📥 1,830,246 votes cast. 🔵 DEM: 1,014,744 - 84.5% returned.🔴 GOP: 602,601 - 84.2% returned.🟡 IND: 212,901 - 75.4% returned. VBM Splits: 🔵55.4% / 🔴 32.9% / 🟡 11.7% . 🗳️ Ballot Edge: 🔵+412,143.📈 Return Edge: 🔵+0.3.
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Local firm @muhlenberg_poll follows suit from SP&R yesterday with a PA-07 survey. 🦅 POTUS. 🔵 Harris: 50% (+3).🔴 Trump: 47%. 🏛️ PA SEN. 🔵 Casey: 51% (+6).🔴 McCormick: 45%. 🗳️ Congress. 🔵 Wild: 51% (+6).🔴 MacKenzie: 45%. Harris wins statewide in this case, FYI.
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🚨 Big news - with enough votes in, PA Dems have *somehow* retained their 1-seat majority in the State House. It ends up as 102-101, same as 2022. No incumbents lost. What a bizarre result after 11/5 where they got nuked everywhere else.
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Since some of you really needed this, YouGov/Times just dropped a PA poll (8/23 - 9/3, 1000 RV). 🦅 POTUS. 🔵 Harris: 46%.🔴 Trump: 45%. Harris+1. 🏛️ PA SEN. 🔵 Casey: 52%.🔴 McCormick: 41%. Casey+11. Amazing what a non-R junk poll does. Also back to the typical Casey+10s.
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As someone who was pushing for Shapiro, you’re full of it. So much of this PA hysteria is driven by us not having a halfway decent poll for a hot minute other than CNN and propaganda about how VBM is operating this cycle. I thought 2022 was bad enough as it was. Jeez.
Hearing lots of rumbling today that Harris camp regretting not picking Shapiro.
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🚨 The PA poll train keeps rolling on with a @QuinnipiacPoll statewide release. 🦅 POTUS. 🔵 Harris: 49%.🔴 Trump: 46%. Harris+3. 🏛️ PA SEN. 🔵 Casey: 51%.🔴 McCormick: 43%. Casey+8. Trump's % has been more or less the same in their 3 PA polls so far. PA SEN stable as well.
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🚨 New PA poll out from @Liberty4pa, a GOP-aligned in-state firm (800 RV, 7/23 - 7/25). 🦅 POTUS. 🔵 Harris: 47%.🔴 Trump: 46%. Harris+1. 🏛️ PA SEN. 🔵 Casey: 51%.🔴 McCormick: 40%. Casey+11. 🗳️ Generic Ballot. 🔵 DEM: 49%.🔴 GOP: 48%. D+1.
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I’m going to be real with you guys - this is the most high grade PA polling I’ve ever seen in a 48 hour timespan. After waking up to a NYT/Siena Harris+4 poll and a WaPo tie, I quickly realized I need a strong drink. We’ll talk about the state of the race after I get whiskey.
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Now that we've had a moment to chill, I want to emphasize that things could look very different a week from now. Having said that, it's no coincidence that at the moment, a lot is breaking in Harris' favor in PA. Ground game, VBM start, district/county + state polling, etc.
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@jackcalifano I'll take another tweet that overtly simplifies and ignores the current reality for 500, Alex.
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Allegheny County is clipping through VBM ballots at a steady pace with all returned ballots' outer envelopes already inspected and pre-canvassing taking place on well over 150K now.
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🚨 New Fox Poll out of PA this evening (1,021 RV, 9/20 - 9/24). 🦅 POTUS. 🔵 Harris: 50%.🔴 Trump: 48%. Harris+2 (tie w/ LVs - 49/49). 🏛️ PA SEN. 🔵 Casey: 53%.🔴 McCormick: 44%. Casey+9. Another status quo poll. Which way, Pennsylvanians?.
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The pieces are falling into place as we enter the final 48 hours. With NPAs folded in, Dems will certainly go into Election Day with a roughly half a million edge. The higher the final raw returns for them gets, the less pressure it puts on the Election Day gap.
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Early, but she is outperforming the partisan margin here. Getting some GOP and INDs.
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🦅 Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day 18. 📥 1,625,706 votes cast. 🔵 DEM: 917,896 - 76.6% returned.🔴 GOP: 530,086 - 74.4% returned.🟡 IND: 177,724 - 63.2% returned. VBM Splits: 🔵 56.5% / 🔴 32.6% / 🟡 10.9%. 🗳️ Ballot Edge: 🔵+387,810.📈 Return Edge: 🔵+2.2. Thoughts⬇️.
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New TIPP/American Greatness poll for PA (10/7 - 10/9, 1,086 RV). 🦅 POTUS. 🔵 Harris: 49%.🔴 Trump: 45%. Harris+4. 🏛️ PA SEN. 🔵 Casey: 48%.🔴 McCormick: 40%. Casey+8. Bizarrely, the LV sample has Trump up by 1.5 pts (48.6 - 47.3) while Casey still leads 47-43.
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@andrei__roman @atlas_intel You do not have the kind of money, staffing, rigor, and quality control to be able to do this much in less than a week. Even the most prestigious quality well-funded pollsters can’t do this. Enjoy your F rating.
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🦅 Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day 19. 📥 1,688,551 votes cast. 🔵 DEM: 947,214 - 79.0% returned.🔴 GOP: 553,158 - 77.5% returned.🟡 IND: 188,179 - 66.8% returned. VBM Splits: 🔵 56.1% / 🔴 32.8% / 🟡 11.1%. 🗳️ Ballot Edge: 🔵+394,056.📈 Return Edge: 🔵+1.5. Thoughts⬇️.
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Marist Poll at midnight ET for PA - you'll want to stay up for this. I consider them to be the *best* PA pollster that isn't an in-stater, bar none. Also. it's about time we heard from one of our local firms, don't you think? Maybe. tomorrow morning? Stay tuned. 👀.
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Now I get to say my favorite words. Allegheny incoming.
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New @MonmouthPoll of PA (kind of)…. 🦅 POTUS . 🔵 Harris: 48% (definite + probably).🔴 Trump: 45% (definite + probably). Harris+3 (implied). As others have said, Monmouth not doing true H2Hs is very problematic. But of note, Harris has better favorables as we’ve seen elsewhere.
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🚨 New batch of PA prez polls out this morning, sponsored by Dem and GOP pollsters/orgs respectively. @GQRResearch (D). 🔵 Harris; 50% (+4).🔴 Trump: 46%. @EarlyVoteAction / Fabrizio (R) . 🔵 Harris: 48% (TIE).🔴 Trump: 48%. Safe to say we are seeing some movement.
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Unhinged PA claims I've seen in the last week:. - The Amish are waiting to be unleashed for Trump. - VBM is 1 pt redder than '20. Harris is screwed. - Trump will win 30% of the black vote. - This firm doesn't poll PA often. So they're fake/polls are fake. I need a vacation.
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Whatever's left of the remaining ballots for #PASen broke by more favorable margins than I expected. Fetterman: 51.2.Oz: 46.4. Fetterman wins by 4.8 points. He's now on track to be one of the best D performing candidates in the five battlegrounds and he's not even an incumbent!.
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🚨 PA HD-140 First Results (more coming). 🔵 Jim Prokopiak: 3,143 (85.4%).🔴 Candace Cabanas: 518 (14.1%). ✅ Race Call: Jim Prokopaik (D) defeats Candace Cabanas (R) in the special election for PA HD-140, securing Dem control of the PA State House (again. ).
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@muhlenberg_poll As a bonus, they also had a breakdown of Carbon County - 63-37 Trump. He won it by 32 in '20 via 65.4-33.3. *If true*, what these county numbers suggest is Harris holding up fine with rurals/whites, some further leftward shifts in the surburbs, and very little minority erosion.
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Just to reiterate (again), we are a) no longer in a pandemic and b) Dems are going back to ED voting at a disproportionally higher rate than the GOP. What should be concerning for Republicans is that millions spent on increasing VBM has gone nowhere + higher #'s than I expected.
BREAKING: Democrat mail-in ballot requests in Pennsylvania have dropped by 132,000 since the same time in 2020.
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Next Tuesday is going to be fascinating because right now, there are two worlds in PA. 1. District polls of PA-07, -08, and -10 suggesting either a 2020 redux or better. 2. All those tied statewide polls. So, which one will be right? Or a little bit of both? One wonders.
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Even more concisely, what we saw tonight was massive racedep. Harris actually did fine with whites - she would've been in a good position had minorities stayed about the same as '20 or better. Case-in-point - she's down by almost 5 in Northampton w/ 90%+ in, which is 1/5 Latino.
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Speaking of… who’s ready for a new PA poll?. I think you’ll find this upcoming one interesting… 👀.
we need one more poll in PA and one in GA to turn on the Harris v Trump poll average. .
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@lxeagle17 Getting a sample of 2,100 PA respondents in less than 24 hours and computing them in mere hours for release after finishing? Lmao. Hope they enjoy their F.
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Sorry to rain on Marist, but we have a midnight PA poll from CWCP / @YouGov (9/24 - 10/2, 1,000 RV). 🦅 POTUS (H2H). 🔵 Harris: 51%.🔴 Trump: 49%. Harris+2. Same margin w/ a multi-candidate field (47-45). The sponsor focuses on union membership/behavior. Related breakdowns 🔽.
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Some nonpartisan PA SEN polling over the last two weeks:. Emerson: Casey+2.NYT/Siena: Casey+4.Q-Pac: Casey+8.Commonwealth: Casey+10.Cook: Casey+7.Fox News: Casey+9.Fabrizio/Impact: Casey+4.SP&R: Casey+8. Get a grip. This is why I don't watch cable news.
🚨🚨. Chuck Todd predicts @DaveMcCormickPA is going to beat Bob Casey: "There’s something missing for Casey this time."
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There are no conclusions to draw at the moment and I would continue to wait, but I've been doing PA VBM tracking for a long time and I've never seen Dems start this aggressively off the gate on returns before. On a county comparison for available VBM, the differences are stark.
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Cumberland County, a vital left-trending area to watch in PA this fall, released their current numbers of processed VBM applications. 🔵 24,825.🔴 13,913.🟡 2,867. 🗳️ TOTAL: 41,605. This batch is about D+30 or so. Total *returns* were ~26,300 in '22, ~52,300 in '20.
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As implied last night, we have a PA poll this morning from @UML_CPO (10/2 - 10/9, (800 LV). Full field tests. 🦅 POTUS. 🔵 Harris: 46%.🔴 Trump: 45%. Harris+1. 🏛️ PA SEN. 🔵 Casey: 48%.🔴 McCormick: 39%. Casey+9. Virtually no change on the margins from their last poll.
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It's about to get chaotic as the home stretch begins, so a word of advice - the only PA polls I would pay attention to moving forward fall under two groups:. 1) The final set of surveys from in-staters - F&M, SP&R, and Muhlenberg. 2) Quality firms like NYT/Siena, Marist, etc.
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