Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
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Assistant News Director @FLVoiceNews | Marylander-turned-Floridian | Elections, polls, breaking news
Florida
Joined August 2016
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STATEWIDE (mail + in-person): Today, the GOP shockingly evaporated the Democrats' mail-in lead and took the lead themselves.
🔴 Republican: 40.5% [+1.1] (679,702)
🔵 Democratic: 39.4% (660,765)
🟡 NPA: 18.1% (304,680)
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The side yelling "NO PLEASE DO NOT COUNT BALLOTS BY HAND" is looking really suspicious right now.
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Trump just went onto Kamala’s home turf and decimated everything about her.
He’s making a play not just for the electoral college but for the popular vote.
And look how much fun he’s having. 🔥
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This is a really, really, REALLY bad week for the Harris campaign. Horrific polling. Odds plummeting. Disaster interview. Now, she goes after Trump for comforting Gold Star families - and those families are now blasting her publicly.
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🚨 BREAKING: Trump campaign sends out a LONG LIST OF RECEIPTS of Democrats' rhetoric that "inspired another attempt on President Trump's life"
The campaign laid out over 50 unique quotes and provided sources for each.
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🚨 BREAKING: Donald Trump is the clear favorite to win the 2024 election under CNN's latest national poll update, with win odds of nearly 70%.
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🚨 BREAKING: Donald Trump has FLIPPED MICHIGAN in the RealClearPolitics polling map
🔴 Trump: 296 🏆
🔵 Harris: 242
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🚨 BREAKING: Trump has just soared again in this morning’s Polymarket to a 20-point lead - another all-time high since Harris got into the race
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< Youngkin requires paper ballots and voter ID, clears the voter rolls
< All of a sudden GOP county turnout surges
Imagine my shock.
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🚨 BREAKING: Trump just SOARED to an all-time high against Kamala Harris with a 13.5-point lead in this morning's Polymarket.
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Scott Jennings is lighting up this CNN clown car panel right now.
JENNINGS: She took no responsibility for saying Biden was fine, that he was strong. Nobody believes that.
PANEL MEMBER: "I do."
JENNINGS: "Then why isn't he running?"
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BREAKING: Nevada flips for Trump in RealClearPolitics
New electoral map:
🔴 Trump: 302 🏆
🔵 Harris: 236
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To be clear - Kamala Harris' campaign-suicidal post this evening focusing on LEBANON while major disaster rescues and recovery are underway is an admission she is losing Michigan right now.
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🚨 BREAKING: President Trump will help distribute relief supplies, receive a briefing on devastation of Hurricane Helene in Valdosta, Georgia on Monday at 2PM ET.
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🚨 This CNBC host just demolished ardent Kamala defender Mark Cuban, OMG
CUBAN: Being president is different than being vice president.
HOST: "She can take credit for the good things that happened with Biden, but she doesn't have anything to do with the bad things?"
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#NEW
2024 election forecast
🔴 Trump: 312 🏆
🔵 Harris: 191
🟡 Tossup: 35
@OnPointPolitics
| Oct. 6
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🚨 BREAKING: Trump now favored to win MICHIGAN, GAINS in latest election forecast
WIN ODDS:
🔴 Trump: 58.8%
🔵 Harris: 41.1%
ELECTORAL COLLEGE:
🔴 Trump: 302 🏆
🔵 Harris: 236
@J_L_Partners
| Oct. 8
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🚨 BREAKING 2024 FORECAST UPDATE - Trump favored in all swing states... Trump's chance of victory in:
🔴 MICHIGAN: 56.5%
🔴 PENNSYLVANIA: 60.7%
🔴 NEVADA: 62.5%
🔴 WISCONSIN: 63.3%
🔴 GEORGIA: 64.1%
🔴 ARIZONA: 64.7%
🔴 NORTH CAROLINA: 69.6%
@OnPointPolitics
/ Aug. 31
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🚨 BREAKING: Trump surges in major election model, now with a 62.4% chance of winning.
🔴 Trump: 312 🏆
🔵 Harris: 226
@J_L_Partners
| Oct. 14
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🚨 BREAKING: Donald Trump leads by Wisconsin by 3 points, Democratic internal polling shows (WSJ)
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🚨 JUST IN: Georgia must hand-count all paper ballots on election day to line up results with the machine counts, per new decision by the Georgia elections board
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BREAKING: Michigan firefighter union refuses to back Kamala Harris in another blindside
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🚨 BREAKING: Initial poll from local Virginia station finds Republican Hung Cao won the Senate debate against Tim Kaine handily
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🚨 CNN ANALYST: Just 28% of Americans think the U.S. is on the right track. The incumbent party usually loses when that number nears 25%, and wins when it is near 42%. This is a bad sign for Kamala Harris.
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NEW: Pennsylvania flips back to Trump in RealClearPolitics electoral map after new polls
🔴 Trump: 281 🏆
🔵 Harris: 257
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Bret Baier just said that "they" keep telling him to wrap up his interview.
He was constantly looking to the side and nodding his head as things got worse - ESPECIALLY when Israel was brought up.
They kept telling him to cut it out... that's how bad it was.
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BREAKING: Trump remains the favorite in Nate Silver election model after new polls released today
🔴 Trump: 61.6% (+23.5)
🔵 Harris: 38.1%
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🚨 LATEST NO-TOSSUP MAP from Nate Silver's electoral college model is a sizeable Trump victory...
🔴 Trump: 312 🏆
🔵 Harris: 226
Silver Bulletin / Sept. 6
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🚨 BREAKING: Donald Trump favored with a 71.9% chance of winning the 2024 election under the latest national polls
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🚨 WOAH: For the first time in over 10 years, Notre Dame students prefer a REPUBLICAN (Donald Trump) for president over the Democrat.
Notre Dame is primely a Catholic institution. Harris is not winning if she crashes among white Catholics, and Catholics as a whole.
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🚨 NEW: Donald Trump is favored in all 7 battlegrounds under latest election model
ELECTORAL COLLEGE:
🔴 Trump: 287 🏆
🔵 Harris: 226
🟡 Tossup: 25
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🚨 BREAKING: Trump opens up biggest lead yet in latest election forecast
🔴 Trump: 287 🏆
🔵 Harris: 251
WIN ODDS:
🔴 Trump: 56.7% (+13.5)
🔵 Harris: 43.2%
SWING STATE ODDS:
🔴 GEORGIA: Trump 70.4%
🔴 ARIZONA: Trump 69.8%
🔴 NORTH CAROLINA: Trump 68.4%
🔴 PENNSYLVANIA: Trump
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🚨 JUST IN: Major election channel just released its 2024 forecast - and it's a very strong win for Trump.
BATTLEGROUND MARGINS:
🔴 AZ: Trump+3
🔴 PA: Trump+2.1
🔴 NC: Trump+2
🔴 GA: Trump+1.8
🔴 NV: Trump+0.9
🔴 WI: Trump+0.4
🔴 MI: Trump+0.1
@ElectionTime_
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NEW: Trump has taken the lead among independents in the latest CBS poll.
It went from Harris+3 to, now, Trump+4.
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🚨 Latest polls from Democracy Institute:
🔴 NATIONAL: Trump+3
🔴 PENNSYLVANIA: Trump+4
🔴 WISCONSIN: Trump+2
🔴 MICHIGAN: Trump+1
🔵 VIRGINIA: Harris+2
🔵 NEW HAMPSHIRE: Harris+2
🔵 MINNESOTA: Harris+4
Her campaign is freaking out.
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🚨 Trump given a 99.9% chance of winning the election under latest national poll
AtlasIntel is known for being the most accurate pollster of 2020 nationally, with its final poll being Biden+4.7 and the final result being Biden+4.5
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BREAKING FORECAST UPDATE - Trump has gained in Nate Silver's electoral college forecast after new polling
🔴Trump: 55.1% (+10.5)
🔵Harris: 44.6%
Post-DNC.
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🚨 NEW 2024 election map, according to Nate Silver's election model (no tossup)
ELECTORAL COLLEGE:
🔴 Trump: 312 🏆
🔵 Harris: 226
Silver Bulletin | Sept. 16
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🚨 BREAKING: Kamala Harris “underwater” in Michigan against Trump in internal polling, according to Democratic Senate candidate Elissa Slotkin (Axios)
“We have her underwater in our polling.”
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BARIS: Gov. Glenn Youngkin has been going around, legitimately telling everybody that Virginia is in play for Trump.
👀👀
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🚨 BREAKING: Major election predictions channel just released their FINAL 2024 election forecast.
This is the result.
The channel, Election Predictions Official, nailed 2020 - only missing one state (Georgia).
Battleground margins:
🔴 North Carolina: Trump+1.3
🔴 Arizona:
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Nate Silver: Trump has a 57% chance of winning Pennsylvania.
Wow.
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#NEW
ELECTORAL MAP based on internal polling
🔴 Trump: 312 🏆
🔵 Harris: 226
#NEW
BATTLEGROUND polls
Pennsylvania:
🔴 Trump: 49% (+1)
🔵 Harris: 48%
Wisconsin:
🔴 Trump: 49% (+1)
🔵 Harris: 48%
Michigan:
🔴 Trump: 49% (+1)
🔵 Harris: 48%
Georgia:
🔴 Trump: 50% (+5)
🔵 Harris: 45%
Arizona:
🔴 Trump: 49% (+3)
🔵 Harris: 46%
Nevada:
🔴 Trump: 50% (+3)
🔵
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THERE IT IS! Trump gets a 6 POINT LEAD in latest daily tracker - RIGHT AFTER THE DEBATE!
Looks like people are fired up!
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Just theorizing here for a moment - Virginia being a sleeper flip for Trump would shut Harris' night down instantly and we'd all be going to sleep.
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Trump is gaining in PA, MI, WI.
Across the board. In public polls.
He needs ONE. But he is on track to get all 3.
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🚨 BREAKING: Trump LEADS NATIONALLY in latest poll
🔴 Trump: 49% (+2)
🔵 Harris: 47%
@Rasmussen_Poll
| Sept. 5, 8-11 | N=2,390LV
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MONTANA internal Senate poll finds Republican Tim Sheehy running away with massive lead...
🔴 Sheehy: 53% (+9)
🔵 Tester: 44%
Released by
@GuyPBenson
.
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🚨 Recent Pennsylvania polls:
🔴 Fox: Trump+1
🔴 Emerson: Trump+1
🔴 AtlasIntel: Trump+3
🔴 InsiderAdvantage: Trump+2
🔴 Trafalgar: Trump+3
🔴 Patriot Polling: Trump+1
This is INSANE. He is posting lead after lead, and it’s unprecedented for Trump in September of an election.
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🚨 BREAKING: We are now less than 3 weeks from the election and Trump is positioned MUCH stronger in polling than the 2020 election.
Change from this point in 2020:
🔴 National: Trump+7.4
🔴 Pennsylvania: Trump+5.9
🔴 Michigan: Trump+8.2
🔴 Wisconsin: Trump+6
🔴 North Carolina:
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🚨 BREAKING: Michigan ballots can now only be counted after proof of signature is verified in victory for GOP
"Clerks were counting mail ballots without proof of signature verification, opening the door to fraud," RNC
@ChairmanWhatley
said. "The GOP sued."
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NEW: Gallup has Republicans with a 3-point edge nationally.
That COULD lead to a Trump+3 national popular vote.
Here's what that may look like, if it pans out.
Trump win margin:
🔴 ME: +0.9
🔴 MN: +1
🔴 NH: +1.4
🔴 MI: +4.8
🔴 GA: +5.2
🔴 NV: +5.7
🔴 PA: +6.4
🔴 AZ: +7.3
🔴
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🔥 Republican Hung Cao is demolishing Tim Kaine in tonight’s VA Senate debate
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🚨 BREAKING - Trump GAINS again in the Nate Silver 2024 election forecast model
ELECTORAL COLLEGE WIN CHANCE:
🔴 Trump: 56.7% (+13.7)
🔵 Harris: 43%
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In case you want to see perhaps the most brutal part of the interview - here it is.
BAIER: Why are Americans saying this country is on the wrong track? You've been in office for 3.5 years.
HARRIS: And, Donald Trump has been running for office... you and I both know what I am
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JUST IN: WISCONSIN has now flipped for Trump in Polymarket.
He now holds an advantage in 6 of 7 battleground states.
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WOAH - Based on GALLUP's poll, Trump is on track to win the popular vote by 2.5 points.
1) That's an early F-ing election night.
2) Kamala's problems would not be the battlegrounds. Would look something like this.
🚨Historical Trends: Party ID & Popular Vote 🚨
Based on regression analysis using Gallup's party ID and historical election results, an R+3 environment in 2024 the model projects a 2.5% national popular vote margin in favor of Trump. This aligns with the historical trend where
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The look.
The tone.
The finger-wagging.
Yeah, men aren't voting for this.
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NBC ANALYST: By 20 points, Americans say the incumbent party's policies (Biden-Harris) are hurting their family... but when they think about Trump's administration, by a 13-point margin, voters say his policies HELPED their families.
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BREAKING - NATE SILVER: "In addition to Pennsylvania, Michigan has become something of an issue for Harris."
Uh oh...
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🚨 BREAKING: Donald Trump has booked a Madison Square Garden, New York rally for late-October, a source familiar with the planning confirms to me directly.
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Pennsylvania mail got SIGNIFICANTLY redder than expected today, wow.
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🚨 BREAKING: Trump soars to a new high in latest election model since after Harris entered the presidential race
Win odds:
🔴 Trump: 59.3% (+18.7)
🔵 Harris: 40.6%
Electoral college:
🔴 Trump: 312 🏆
🔵 Harris: 226
@J_L_Partners
| Oct. 11
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It came out today from CNN that Kamala's internals are "rough" in Pennsylvania, and that Nevada and Georgia look even worse.
Her campaign is truly panicking.
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CNN ANALYST: If Trump outperforms his current polls by just a single point, Trump wins 287 electoral votes. A single point can make all the difference.
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🚨 BREAKING: Kamala Harris on if she regrets border policies allowing known murderers into the country - starts a non-answer, gets mad at Bret Baier for asking her to answer the question.
Oh my God this is so, so bad.
"We have done a number of things..."
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🚨 BREAKING: For the first time in North Carolina history, Republicans have MORE ACTIVE VOTERS than Democrats (+3,371)
Over the last week, Republicans out-registered Democrats in North Carolina MORE than 2-to-1:
🔴 Republicans: +11,338
🔵 Democrats: +5,436
Data:
@MichaelPruser
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🚨 Trump pulls a 8-POINT NATIONAL LEAD in Rasmussen's daily tracker
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🚨 LATEST NEW YORK TIMES POLL would give Trump a near-100% chance at winning the electoral college
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#NEW
: 2024 election map based on latest polling averages
🔴 Trump: 312 🏆
🔵 Harris: 226
Battlegrounds:
🔴 Michigan: Trump+1.2
🔴 North Carolina: Trump+1.1
🔴 Georgia: Trump+1
🔴 Pennsylvania: Trump+1
🔴 Arizona: Trump+0.6
🔴 Nevada: Trump+0.6
🔴 Wisconsin: Trump+0.6
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🚨 BREAKING: NEW electoral map based on latest battleground polling
🔴 Trump: 296 🏆
🔵 Harris: 242
Trafalgar Group & Insider Advantage | September polls
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🚨 Election forecast finds Trump is ahead in Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona - already enough for Trump to win the election with at least 281 electoral votes.
@TomEllsworth
/
@ValuetainmentTV
| Oct. 3
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🚨 Over the past 24 hours, polls have come out showing Trump winning PENNSYLVANIA, NORTH CAROLINA & GEORGIA.
Polls have also come out showing Trump winning WISCONSIN & ARIZONA.
Trump is getting good polls EXACTLY where he needs it - his easiest two victory paths.
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Trump says he’s making a play for states like Virginia, Minnesota and New Mexico. Clearly, his campaign believes the map is expanded.
Reminiscent of post-debate Biden.
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BREAKING - Trump opens up LEADS IN PENNSYLVANIA, WISCONSIN & MICHIGAN!
PENNSYLVANIA:
🔴Trump: 47% (+2.1)
🔵Harris: 44.9%
WISCONSIN:
🔴Trump: 47.3% (+1.1)
🔵Harris: 46.2%
MICHIGAN:
🔴Trump: 47% (+0.4)
🔵Harris: 46.6%
Trafalgar Group / Aug. 28-30 / n=1,000LV each (roughly)
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North Carolina purges over 130,000 deceased voters from its rolls.
Democrats in shambles.
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🚨 BREAKING: Trump the clear favorite in the 2024 election under latest NATIONAL polling, handed a 70% chance to win
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BARIS: The most likely outcome right now is that Donald Trump wins with 312 electoral votes.
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BRET BAIER JUST NOW: At times, I really didn't know what Kamala Harris was talking about. I would ask her about a present-day issue, and she'd be going back a decade to talk about Donald Trump.
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🚨 BREAKING: Latest election model forecasts Trump will sweep Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan in the election
Model:
@QuantusInsights
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🚨 BREAKING - NATE SILVER ELECTION MODEL raises Trump's victory chances to 60.1%, PENNSYLVANIA to 61%
ELECTORAL COLLEGE ODDS:
🔴 Trump: 60.1% (+20.4)
🔵 Harris: 39.7%
SWING STATES:
🔴 PENNSYLVANIA: Trump 61%
🔴 ARIZONA: Trump 73%
🔴 NORTH CAROLINA: Trump 73%
🔴 GEORGIA: Trump
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Baris just said Kamala Harris' internal campaign polls in Pennsylvania have her down by 4 points against Trump: 48% DJT - 44% KH.
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JUST IN: President Trump urges supporters to vote early in Pennsylvania.
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🚨 BREAKING: MICHIGAN poll finds more voters switched from Harris to Trump after the debate
🔴 To Trump: 5% (+2)
🔵 To Harris: 3%
🟡 No switch: 90%
🟠 Unsure: 2%
Mitchell | Sept. 10 | N=600LV
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🚨
#NEW
NATIONAL polling update
🔴 Trump: 49.4% (+3.4)
🔵 Harris: 46%
Rasmussen 5-day average | Sept. 17-19, 22-23 | N=1,852LV
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#NEW
PENNSYLVANIA poll
🔴 Trump: 50% (+4)
🔵 Harris: 46%
🟢 Other: 3%
🟡 Undecided: 1%
Democracy Institute | Oct. 2-3 | N=400LV
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🚨 BREAKING: Pro-Trump VIRGINIA counties see a 19-POINT ENTHUSIASM ADVANTAGE over Democratic-leaning counties compared to 2020 for the first day of early voting
This includes the 17 largest counties in Virginia (Fairfax, Virginia Beach, Loudon included).
An early sign?
Credit
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The latest Emerson College national poll is Harris+1.6.
This is what the Electoral College would most likely look like.
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🚨 CNN ANALYST: Let's say Donald Trump outperforms his polling by a single point - just one point. He gets 287 electoral votes. He gets Pennsylvania. That race has been consistently so tight. Whoever wins Pennsylvania, my guess is, is gonna be the next president.
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🚨 JUST IN: Trump opens up 7 POINT LEAD in latest Rasmussen daily national poll
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WOLF BLITZER: A convicted felon could become the president of the United States.
SCOTT JENNINGS: Bogus charges and in a kangaroo court. A political attack, launched in a blue state by a political court. Republicans can pivot to Trump's endorsement by the Fraternal Order of
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🚨 JUST IN:
@Kalshi
odds shown in Times Square have Trump as the FAVORITE to win the election by 4 points.
No doubt this is triggering deep-blue New Yorkers 🤣
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🚨 BREAKING: The Trump campaign raised over $160M in September, and has $283M cash on hand.
96% of donations came from those below $200. The average donation size was $60.
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CNN REPORTER: You said you supported banning fracking. Did it change?
Kamala: In 2020, I made clear where I stand. We are in 2024. I kept my word.
REPORTER: Why did you change your position?
Kamala: Let's be clear. My values have not changed.
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Guys. The trend everywhere is just RED. Mail-in requests and EVing. Virginia. Pennsylvania. North Carolina. Florida.
These things don't just happen in a vacuum. Rurals in VA are blowing up in turnout compared to blue counties.
Not gonna just happen in one state...
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