Daniel Cox
@dcoxpolls
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Director of @amersurveyctr @AEI; Writing UNCOUPLED for @penguinrandom, @ChelseaFC fan Newsletter: https://t.co/x818PJ7eWQ
Washington, DC
Joined August 2012
I'm very excited to share some news. I'm writing a book on America's gender divide, which is about so much more than politics.
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Believe the following political figure is a "person of faith". Among Republicans.Mitt Romney: 35%.Donald Trump: 53%.
What?
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Will young men vote Democratic in 2024?. % identifying as Republican (includes leaners). 2013: 38%.2014: 37%.2015: 36%.2016: 36%.2017: 39%.2018: 42%.2019: 42%.2020: 44%.2021: 45%.2022: 47%.2023: 49%. Source: Gallup.
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🚨🚨New Harvard IOP Poll. 2024 Vote Preference. Young men:.52% Biden.35% Trump. Young women:.69% Biden.21% Trump.
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This is a massive and pretty unexpected change. Less than half of Rs now saying being Christian is an important part of being American.
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We conducted a major survey on the state of civic life in America. The most jaw-dropping finding was the rapid decline in social connections among Americans without degrees. Nearly 1/4 have no close friends.
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Woah. What is happening with Republicans on the morality of same-sex relations? Massive drop.
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This should be a bigger story. There was a massive gender divide (according to exits) in the youth vote. Young women:.72% D / 26% R. Young men:.54% D / 43% R. This is consistent with our pre-election polling. And analysis showing an emerging ideological divide.
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The biggest red flag for young men in dating is. being a communist??. h/t @mattsheffield
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@BradWilcoxIFS Men have experienced a much steeper decline in the number of close friends they have. It's dramatic.
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I'm increasingly convinced that the abortion issue is going to drive young women away from religion. We saw this happen on same-sex marriage for millennials, & now I'm wondering whether the same thing will happen to Gen Z. Open to argument here.
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Yep. Wrote about this recently. Not much evidence that Millennials are becoming more conservative.
NEW: conservatives have a Millennials problem. In both UK & US, it’s not just that Millennials aren’t voting conservative because they’re young. Every previous generation grew more conservative with age, but Millennials are not playing ball. My column:
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@gelliottmorris @BenSasse This is consistent with our work as well. Evangelical Republicans are more likely to believe in conspiracy theories.
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And this is why defections to Trump among young men may not actually yield him many votes. Only 34% of young voters supporting Trump say they are "extremely motivated" to vote.
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This is a piece I've spent a lot of time working on. I think it's important. I hope you read it. Thank you @grace_degraaf for helping whip it into shape.
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Regardless of your politics, if your friends are vaccinated you probably are too.
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Incredibly important piece by @michelleinbklyn about loneliness and its effect on the political order. Very much worth your time.
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The politics of young women are undergoing a massive change. In recent years, they have become far more liberal than young men.
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More Americans believe in angels than evolution is something that is important to remind yourself when trying to make sense of the political preferences and cultural sensibilities of the public.
A big swath of U.S. adults believe in angels. But what exactly they mean by that depends on who you talk to about their acceptance of these celestial entities.
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New Survey Alert! We interviewed over 5,000 Americans, oversampling young adults, to explore how teen experiences have changed across generations. A short thread.
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For the first time in my polling career, Democrats and Republicans are equally unpopular. The more than decades-long Democratic advantage has disappeared.
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Given how close this election and past contests have been we should really do away with the red/blue state maps. America looks a lot more like this:
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Democratic women are far more likely than Republican men to say Trump is a deal breaker. 79% of Democratic women would NOT date someone whose opinion of Trump differed from their own
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I imagine this will get a lot of attention. Supports the argument that Democrats' rapid shift left became a political liability in 2024.
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In a fascinating shift, teen religious participation is no longer closely linked to drug or alcohol use. For older Americans, teen religious involvement was tied to lower drug use. But not for Gen Z who report low levels of both. FIN/
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Trump's most committed voters are divorced men. In American Storylines, I look at the growing political gap between men and women who are no longer married.
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If no R will vote for a D nominee and vice versa not sure how long public will believe that Court decisions are not simply exercises in partisanship.
NEW: Senator Ben Sasse (R-NE) just said Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson has “impeccable credentials, a deep knowledge of the law. and is an extraordinary person with an extraordinary American story” but says he is “sadly unable to vote for [her] confirmation.”.
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And this my friends is what asymmetrical polarization looks like.
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@dbbrakebill @grace_degraaf That's actually a fairly large survey sample. Your average survey probably includes somewhere between 1,000-2,000 respondents.
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@ryanburge It's always a good idea to test against other data, but in this case the CCES is not comparable given the high nonresponse to the ideology question. Nearly 20% of young women report "not sure" in response to the ideology question in the CCES data.
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The social collapse of non-college Americans may in part be driven by their waning participation in 2 critical institutions: marriage and religion. 1/.
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This is something that I’ve noted and have been saying for awhile. The nonreligious are no longer simply religiously disinterested. They are turning against religion.
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A drop of 12 points in 10 years. This is not a slow-moving demographic change. This is a massive culturally redefining shift moving at freight-train speed.
Our new analysis finds that Christians continue to make up a majority of the U.S. populace, but their share of the adult population is 12 points lower in 2021 than it was in 2011 (63% vs 75%).
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When one side denies reality it’s not really the case of needing to bridge political differences. We should absolutely encourage dialogue, but not at the expense of validating conspiratorial thinking.
Frederick, Maryland – the “crossroads of the Civil War” – is dotted with reminders of what happens when Americans turn against each other. One Biden supporter and one Trump supporter are trying to see if it's possible to find common ground.
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@DKThomp This is part of a broader phenomenon with noncollege folks struggling socially and disengaging in civic life across the board. We released a report on this last fall. Here's the friendship divide, which has widened over the past few decades.
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First off, Gen Z adults had unique teen experiences when it came to religious participation, dating and holding part-time jobs. They are also far less likely to use drugs and alcohol. 2/
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@jimmhughes @aedwardslevy Yeah. That's certainly possible. People who were opposed to LGBT rights might have switched their party affiliation to align on this issue. It's a tricky thing to sort out.
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Not sure the 2016 comparison is apt. White working-class Dems had been drifting from the party for years and are conservative. Apart from his age, youth criticism of Biden is that he is not liberal enough. Hard to see these voters supporting Trump in large numbers. But 🤷
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@BradWilcoxIFS @unherd @YouGov Besides the demographic explanations (lower rates of marriage, religion etc.) one thing that we've found is that liberals' life satisfaction is more closely connected to national political environment in a way conservatives are not. Worth exploring further. .
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@titonka Foyle’s War. A murder/mystery set in WWII England. It has lots of intrigue b/c of the war backdrop and some espionage to boot.
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Evidence that Trump is not teflon. Enthusiasm for his presidency is eroding. @FiveThirtyEight
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For those holding out hope that Millennials who left religion would eventually return the news is not good.
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**NEW** Americans most active in their churches and places of worship are those with more education. I explore the growing education gap in religious attendance and what this means.
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No. These data do not show all generations moving right as they age. Boomers and Silents are more Republican. Xers demonstrate volatility but no real change. Millennials are (if anything) less Republican. The pattern after Boomers is muddled.
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Achievement unlocked! Getting a former president to cite your research in an NYT opinion.
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Critically, Gen Z adults spent far less time in person with friends as teenagers than previous generations. Who spent the most hanging out with friends? . Gen Xers. 4/
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US is becoming less religious, college curricula have little or nothing to do with it—my latest in @fiverthirtyeight
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Gen Zers increasingly believe that there are only two genders. Striking change over the last two years. Believe there are only two genders (among Gen Z).2021: 43%.2023: 57%. Source: PRRI 2023.
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@annalouiesuss It's larger than we've seen in exit polls or voter file data the past couple elections. I wouldn't be surprised if it's not quite this big. There's a lot of uncertainty still this far out.
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So much intriguing data. Biden outperforms generic cong. Dems among seniors. Seeing that again and again in polls. Despite weakness, Biden appears to be doing well with 65+ voters. And that 50-64 year old age group is VERY conservative/Republican.
What I was saying earlier: Web surveys do not show this disparity in Trump and DeSantis performance vs. Biden, but the more expensive gold-standard phone surveys do, including this one by Trump and Biden's pollsters.
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@DanielGullotta It's brand new data that we downloaded yesterday, so I haven't written anything up yet, but I'm sure I will soon. Stay tuned!.
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Trump aims to "totally destroy" law prohibiting churches from engaging in political activity
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@DKThomp We've asked about the % of Americans who have had a relationship during their teen years. It's far lower for Gen Z (both men and women) than other generations. Source:
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Teen sports participation is also down, but only among men. Youth athletics is actually more common among Gen Z women. Gen Z men: 52%.Xer men: 63%.Boomer men: 64%. 3/.
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@stanveuger There's something to this. Part of the reason for the rapid change in views on same-sex marriage was due to people who surely felt tepid about it. At least some of this support may have been driven by social pressure, conformity etc.
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@chrislhayes Yes! Here is the full report: The topline questionnaire is available there as well.
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And now the research to back it up. Red and blue maps are increase polarization.
Our research has found that red & blue US political maps create increased perceptions of polarization and more political stereotyping, compared to more accurate purple maps. Thanks to @geealbers for this new website:
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Overwhelming majorities of Republicans and Democrats believe high school textbooks should include following:. 1. Japanese internment during WWII.2. Many Founders were slave owners.3. Mistreatment of native Americans by US gov
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I don't think this is just about an increase in reading. There is a pent-up desire for communal spaces where ppl can come together to engage in shared interests/activities. #thirdplaces.
More than 300 new independent bookstores have sprouted across the U.S. in the past couple of years, in a surprising revival after an early pandemic slump. The book selling business — traditionally overwhelmingly white — has also become much more diverse.
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Young white evangelicals have some surprising things to say about Trump, the 2020 election and how they approach politics in this polarized political climate. My latest @FiveThirtyEight .
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@lymanstoneky How much of this might be due to the expectation gap? If conservative women expect their husbands to do 30% of the housework, then they will be more satisfied with less effort. If liberal women want 50/50 and get less they may be less satisfied.
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When you write about how single college-educated women report having greater difficulty finding a partner who meets their expectations. And a certain type of man loses his mind.
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Truly massive gender divide between 12th grade girls and boys when it comes to views of gender discrimination.
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@BenPahl3 It's fair to say that the political views and ID of this age cohort is certainly not set in stone. It might well swing back. Trump is still not very popular among young people.
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**NEW SURVEY** What are unemployed Americans looking for in a job? Flexibility. More than anything else, workers want flexibility to manage personal and family obligations. New report with @orrell_b
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These are brutal numbers for the pro-life side. Timing is relevant. Poll was conducted immediately after the decision. A lot of folks still processing etc. but the initial reax is telling.
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Democrats are fooling themselves into believing that a strong debate performance moves voters. It's certainly better than a poor one, but young people want to hear a clear message, agenda. Making Trump look dumb doesn't accomplish that. Lots of these voters may still stay home.
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More than one in ten (11%) Republicans in the Never Trump category are Mormon.
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News!! I joined @AEI as a research fellow. I'll be working on public opinion projects that focus on religion, culture and politics. Couldn't be more excited to be here!.
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I realize this is not something that will make me popular on this site, but we should argue more about politics. not less. #UnpopularOpinion . My latest @FiveThirtyEight @amersurveyctr .
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Yale men (circa '66): Women are inane, obsessed with gossip, trivia. Amazing interview on hist. of coeducation @emmaogreen #charmers
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Republicans and Democrats differ in who is facing a lot of discrimination in the U.S.
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So this is interesting. We find that Americans with less formal schooling express greater certainty about God. Much more. At the same time. they are less likely to belong to a place of worship than those with more education. 1/
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A great name for a survey data archive: The Poll Vault. I'll show myself out. .
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I had such an engaging conversation with @fhill_official on where modern dating is heading. The news is not great, but it's not hopeless either. How this all works out is going to be incredibly important.
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Important new report @pewresearch on abortion attitudes. It largely confirms what we already knew, but the report zeroes in on where people draw the line in ways that few polls have done. A few thoughts.
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It seems like there are so few things that Gen Z women and men see eye-to-eye on. Taylor Swift's endorsement of Kamala Harris might just be one more example.
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The religiously unaffiliated are the largest religious group in 20 states.
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I don't think you can understand the growing gender gap among young adults w/o recognizing the seachange in reported exp. of discrimination. "Have you ever experienced discrimination or been treated unfairly because of your gender?". Among women:.18-29: 52%.65+: 34%.
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CHART: Fewer Americans today say same-sex marriage goes against their religious beliefs.
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That is just a massive drop among GOP in trust of large corporations in just 2 years. 2019: 54%.2021: 30%.
Posted this before but the change in Republicans' views about the impact of large corporations on the US has been remarkable (and this was long before DeSantis-Disney flap.).
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Single college-educated women are far more likely to report that having trouble finding someone who "meets their expectations" is a major reason why they're single.
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This is a great nuanced article by @DKThomp on the gender gap, what it is and what it means, informed by a lot of research. This is a topic I've been looking at for the last 2+ years. So let's talk about it. 1/.
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🚨🚨 New Poll Alert!!. - Biden and Trump are tied nationally. But lots of Americans remain unsure how they will vote.- Biden still struggling w/ Hispanics.- A wide gender gap among young voters. And lots more.
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There is no doubt that the 2024 election saw a growing gender divide among young people. The gap showed up in the exit polls and the AP VoteCast (below). Support for Harris:.Young men: 42%.Young women: 58%. WSJ shows the difference btw. 2020 and 2024. It's big.
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Could not agree more with @arthurbrooks on what moral courage actually means.
🚨🚨 #PrinciplesFirst alert:. @ArthurBrooks: “Look, moral courage is not a question of standing up to people on the other side. That’s actually pretty easy to do. Real moral courage is standing up to your own side on behalf of people on the other side.”.
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America's New Gender War: Young men and women are increasingly at odds over dating, gender roles, politics, and their place in American society. @BusinessInsider
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