Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬
@lymanstoneky
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Lutheran Husband Dad Kentuckian Demographer. Please forgive me: my tweets are often accidentally mean. @DemographicNTEL, @FamStudies Pronatalism Initiative
KY-DC-HK-QC-KY
Joined July 2012
That’s the best argument for voting for the GOP ticket I’ve heard in a while.
China censored Pence’s comments on China. Signal returned when Harris began talking again.
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I mean this 100% seriously. I actually think this matters. If Trump is able to peacefully acquire American sovereignty of Greenland without creating like a Greenlandic insurgency or something, this will be one of the greatest feats of any modern president.
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This is a good example of how pensions warp peoples' perceptions. Walz and his wife will draw at least 2 and perhaps 3 separate state pensions from fairly good jobs yielding good pensions. Their de facto pension wealth is actually very very high, higher than most 401ks.
Tim Walz and his wife don't own a single stock, according to financial disclosures. No mutual funds, no bonds, no book deals. via @danprimack
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This is arguably the most important single piece of epidemiological research of the entire pandemic. A MASSIVE randomized trial launched a pro-mask campaign in some Bangladeshi villages, but not others. The result: masking villages got less COVID.
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Why did so many hunter gatherer groups around the world nearly-simultaneously and in an unconnected way develop agriculture?. This has been a kinda problematic question in human prehistory. It may have been solved. by an economist?. Studying the economics of. Earth's orbit?.
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There are not many places on earth where we have detailed cause-of-death data from before the era of widespread vaccination. Massachusetts is one of those places. From 1842-1877, 70% of all deaths were from diseases which we today have vaccines to prevent.
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This guy got a vasectomy because he was worried a kid would cause climate change and then he and his wife took a 4-year traveling honeymoon around Asia running a travel writing gig and racking up about 4-12x a normal person's emissions all in one go.
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we are experiencing an explosion of dog-on-human violence.
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Abortions after 32 weeks are a very small share of total abortions-- perhaps 0.5%. Let's say half of those are not due to unsurvivable conditions, so 0.25% of abortions are very late + could have survived if born. Given ~1 million abortions, that's 2500 such abortions. There.
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It is in fact the young people who are wrong. The older furniture is much better built and longer lasting than your Ikea hutch. The China is prettier than your stuff. The MIL here is in the wrong for never using it-- but the youths are idiots for not keeping beauty.
This is going to be a sad story for so many families. People are saving mahogany dining sets, breakfronts full of exquisite glasses and plates, and whole sets of silverware for their children who do not want, need, or have a place to put them.
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301 were from COVID.
458 US officers died in the line of duty in 2021, highest since 1930
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Research shows that warmer weather DOES reduce the spread of COVID. This is excellent news!.
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lord have mercy. Canadian pro-Palestine activists planned an event on the 85th anniversary of Kristallnacht and advertised it with posters showing people smashing windows. It's just anti-Semitism all the way down. THEY'RE CALLING FOR KRISTALLNACHT.
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my actual theory on why people think cancelling school caused depression even thought it actually improved child mental health is:. a bunch of parents suddenly realized how sad their kids' lives are because they were together a ton more.
i want to take a moment to remind everyone that childhood suicide and depression declined when school was cancelled. cancelling school was by almost every measure good for child mental health. bad for learning! but the "school cancellation depression" stories were fake.
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china just lowkey vanished a tennis star after she claimed a government official sexually assaulted her.
I am devastated and shocked to hear about the news of my peer, Peng Shuai. I hope she is safe and found as soon as possible. This must be investigated and we must not stay silent. Sending love to her and her family during this incredibly difficult time. #whereispengshuai
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this graph is fake. it does not derive from any real actual data on left-handedness. it's a researcher's *hypothesis* about what might happen, not an actual result, and the actual data we have shows it isn't correct.
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Seriously, just take the yachts. How is this even a debate. Just take them. Find a legal justification later. Speed matters.
Viktor Vekselberg's $120,000,000 yacht is currently docked in Europe, the Spanish islands. It could be seized. Roman Abramovich's $590,000,000 yacht Eclipse is in Sint Maarten (Netherlands territory). It could be seized.
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Body blows keep coming for UBI fans. $1k/month transfers had no effect on net worth or credit access. All the money was ploughed straight into consumption, recipients actually went more into debt.
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I have an article out today about police violence. In a comprehensive assessment of the data available, I show that police killings are rising and it's basically because the police have been engaged in a 20-year-long riot against the republic.
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What actually happened is a doctor who's been previously censured for this exact thing in the past failed to provide basic medical treatment for obvious sepsis, the hospital didn't follow up, and because it all happened ER instead of inpatient, malpractice protections are weak.
A teen who was 6m pregnant died after being denied care in three different Texas emergency rooms. She started to miscarry on the morning of her baby shower. They had to "confirm fetal demise" before treating her. It was too late.
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Giving free therapy to a bunch of teens who don't have mood disorders caused a bunch of them to develop mood disorders, and caused their relationships with their parents to get durably worse.
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Diagnoses of EVERY infectious disease in Hong Kong have PLUMMETED in recent weeks, suggesting the low number of COVID cases is indeed due to aggressive hygiene measures NOT underreporting of COVID.
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yes, JD Vance correctly read the literature. and to be clear, he made the comment in a hearing about transportation. where absolute dingbats were proposing TO BAN LAP INFANTS ON FLIGHTS.
✅ Yes, Sen. JD Vance said that "car seat rules" have led to Americans having fewer children. We found the original video:
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What happens when Swedish people win the lottery?. For men, they get married and have kids. For women, they get divorced.
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Church. You’ve invented church.
What's needed is some sort of public space that fulfill the social purposes that bars serve, but which aren't centered around alcohol, sugar, or caffeine.
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This type of "exurban but no actual space" development is getting more common it seems like, and I'd love to hear an explanation of what's going on here.
Remember, suburbia is where Americans go to get spacious backyards.
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you, math nerd, notice that huberman does not know how to calculate cumulative probability densities. i, demographer, notice that the actual probability of pregnancy in a month of regular unprotected sex is actually not 20%. we are not the same.
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a big realization for me recently is a lot of pro-palestine people are not aware of the existence of Mizrahi Jews.
I still can't wrap my head around the idea of Israel. So, a bunch of white germans kïlled a bunch of white jews. And somehow the solution for this is to take land from and colonize a 3rd middle east nation, who were not party to the conflict. The gall of Europeans. 1/.
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if you wish to abandon your child you can in fact deliver them safely to any fire or police stations literally anywhere in America with few or no legal complications. you only put them in a dumpster if you're a hateful murderer.
….we literally tried to warn you that this is what happens when abortion access isn’t accessible.
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Conservative men are more complimentary of their wives' housework than liberal men are, and conservative women are less critical of their husbands' housework than liberal women are. Conservatives share housework better.
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Worth noting this is, in fact, not a graph of wages. It's income after taxes and transfers. Wages do not have this pattern. Young people get more welfare.
Younger generations continue to earn higher real wages than every previous generation. Things just continue to get better despite all the doom and gloom.
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Holy crap. I just tested this. Posted a comment that said "Curious what will happen if I say 五毛 are terrible.". It was gone after 20 seconds.
YouTube has deleted every comment I ever made about the Wumao (五毛), an internet propaganda division of the Chinese Communist Party. Who at Google decided to censor American comments on American videos hosted in America by an American platform that is already banned in China?.
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the printing press absolutely did destroy a civilization, several in fact. about this there is no serious historic debate. the people afraid of the printing press were 100% correct.
@lymanstoneky People said the same about the printing press.
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my "i only sacrifice 1 or 2 slaves at a chief's funeral, actually" t-shirt is raising a lot of questions already answered by my t-shirt.
Worth noting most Native societies didn’t practice human sacrifice anywhere near scale of the Aztecs. Most human sacrifice in North America I’ve come across would be 1 or 2 slaves at a chief’s funeral—& similar retainer sacrifice existed historically in every region of the world.
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Czechia has one of the highest birth rates in Europe, and higher than the US, despite having barely above TFR of 1 in the early 2000s. It's one of the largest fertility rebounds ***ever documented***, and yet nobody talks about the Story of Czech Family Policy.
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Mutations at the MTHFR gene are a huge cause of miscarriage. We can reduce miscarriage due to the most common MTHFR mutation (C677) by ~60% using a decades-old medication. Doctors don't prescribe it until after recurrent miscarriage. Even though we can TEST FOR MTHFR.
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she took meth to induce miscarriage, she delivered a 30-week old baby who was very possibly ALIVE, then she put the baby in a bag and illegally disposed of the body. she very possibly did actual infanticide. Nevada's laws were unchanged by Dobbs.
A struggling Nevada mom suffers a miscarriage. Then the police show up and arrest her for manslaughter, and she's sentenced to 2.5-8 years in prison. Only when a pro bono lawyer steps up and appeals does a judge reverse the conviction and set her free to return to her children.
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From the perspective of excess mortality, the pandemic in the United States appears to finally truly be over.
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At 930 in the morning on the 6th day of Epiphany, in Tuen Mun, Hong Kong, Suzannah Theophania Hei Stone (石希恩) was born. Mom and baby are both healthy and well after 35 hours of labor.
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i am often confused when people say they would abort a baby they knew would die. do they not realize. that we all die?. how many days on earth is enough to say it meant something?.
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Crazy thing about Seuss is he was a very lefty guy and conservatives have been complaining about the lefty politics of his books basically since the day they were written and yet here we are with Make Seuss Great Again as the platform.
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THIS IS ALREADY HOW AMERICA WORKS.
Germany has a double health insurance system:. Socialized (“public”): you pay proportionally to your income, capped at about 750 per month, split between you and employer. Private: if you make more than 69k per year you’re allowed to be privately insured. Private insurance.
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if you believe that Syria and Lubbock have the same maternal mortality rates, then hooo boyo, i have some sand to sell you.
In rural America, the quality of maternal health care (measured by the number of women who die) is about the same as Syria's. This is the reason why.
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This doesn't happen in climates where, for whatever reason, increased seasonality didn't present as serious of issues. Anyways, a new paper quantifies all of this and shows. it's actually true!. More wobbly seasons == Agriculture gets invented.
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Almost one in every ten violent deaths of Americans will occur at the hands of a police officer. That blew my mind when I learned it. This isn't like a rounding error of violent deaths. Police killings aren't just some small episodic thing. They're huge!.
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This is an insane precedent to set. The man is just lighting the constitutional order on fire as he walks out the door and hands it over to a guy he himself thinks will massively abuse it.
Today I'm affirming what I have long believed and what three-fourths of the states have ratified:. The 28th Amendment is the law of the land, guaranteeing all Americans equal rights and protections under the law regardless of their sex.
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every time i am in the poor villages of this globe i am reminded of one important fact. true absolute poverty is hateful to the human soul, a terrible oppression from which people almost uniformly yearn to be liberated with genuine desperation.
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The Mughal Dynasty was one of the most brutally extractive regime sever documented in recorded economic history in terms of inequality vs. subsistence potential, and very much was a foreign invader.
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i hate hate hate hate hate the link punishment. it's so bad. it ruins efforts to promote good work.
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wowow, what a paper!. early-to-mid-imperial Roman economy in Britain generate ~0.5% annual growth rates from productivity gains alone, suggesting that Romans were experiencing genuine economic growth, not just agglomeration effects.
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note that Walz signed a law as governor eliminating any possible duty of care to an infant who survives an abortion.
A baby born at 32 weeks has about a 95 percent chance of surviving BTW. The “post-birth abortion” framing is confusing, but the issue at hand is whether, in the rare instance that a baby survives an abortion attempt, the doctor should then have to provide medical care.
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And, assuming Minnesota's pensions are actuarially sound (idk if they are), they paid for this pension by taking lower wages throughout their career and paying into it as they went. It just doesn't show up as "their" savings.
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Since we are relitigating the confederacy again let me say as someone who totally believed the “well it was really about economic interests and states rights” argument growing up what persuaded me it was about slavery was reading the actual secession documents.
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More and more, American society is divided by family. With each election, fertility becomes more and more predictive of voting behavior.
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We may now know why, after perhaps 200,000 years as hunter gatherers, humans suddenly made a massive shift in subsistence strategy ~10,000 years ago: . Because the Earth went jiggly.
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So as the seasons get funkier, the returns to nomadism decline. This is kind of not what many people intuitively think. "Times get tough, time to hit the road!" Wrong. When times get tough, it's important to expand storage capacity and increase your savings rate.
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If 0.5% of abortions occur after 21 weeks, then late-term abortion is the #1 cause of child death in America.
the CDC reports less than 1 percent of abortions occur after 21 weeks but @emmma_camp_ for some reason felt that easily identifiable statistic was not worth including in this disappointingly misleading piece .
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Also, the obsessive fixation on fleshed out magical systems is actually one of the problems with modern fantasy!.
Screenrant does not understand Narnia. Here is what they said about the “problems” that Lewis is said to have left for Gerwig to “fix.”
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Because there are still people who don't understand how abysmally bad prenatal testing is, I want to give you the regular reminder that even tests for extremely-recognizable conditions like Down's Syndrome are mostly wrong.
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when this is all over we're all going to talk about how the CDC spectacularly failed in literally its one job right. and it wasn't because of budget cuts. it was because of bureaucratic turf wars.
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Okay but no-- "IQ is real and genetic" could as easily imply "therefore we need a large and permanent social welfare state to alleviate the suffering of those underperforming by no personal moral fault" as it could imply "therefore social welfare policy is ineffective".
The proper application of IQ realism isn't "and therefore we must sterilize billions". It is "these outcome differences are not necessarily caused by discrimination". And "this social policy will not and cannot work, ever, stop throwing money at it".
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The actual soft power move the US and EU should pull is to make all standardized college tests and credit programs (AP, IB, SAT, etc) include enough questions offensive to China that you can't get above 95th percentile without deviating from the propaganda.
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well, when you leave the church, it turns out that you are in fact leaving the church.
What was deconstruction like for you? . This tweet sums it up perfectly for me 💔
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This is not quite true. Trudeau destroyed Canada's merit-based immigration system. Temporary resident permits, especially asylum seekers, now outnumber permanent residency permits: he replaced a mostly high-skilled immigrant stream with a low-skilled one!.
Canada has what @Noahpinion has called "the optimal immigration system" -- points based, carefully vetted. In theory, the closest thing to a free lunch that a modern economy can obtain. During the period of mass immigration under Trudeau's rule, per capita GDP declined, the.
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REMEMBER THAT BIG DANISH STUDY ABOUT THE GENDER GAP?. It turns out that the Census Bureau did the exact same study for the USA!. In November!. And got the same results!. And nobody noticed!.
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“Now you tell me, when a father goes ahead and washes diapers or performs some other mean task for his child, and someone ridicules him as an effeminate fool, though that father is acting in the spirit just described and in Christian faith, my dear fellow you tell me, which of.
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Deaths in Santa Clara county, CA are running at 20% above last year: which is TWICE the mortality gap you'd expect from officially confirmed COVID deaths. WE NEED FASTER ALL-CAUSE MORTALITY DATA.
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Quebec's COVID stats right now are an incredible testament to the effectiveness of the vaccines. We're seeing an absolutely insane spike in cases. with virtually no increase in hospitalizations or deaths.
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wait it's a joke right. there. there weren't same day results in those 18th and 19th century elections.
1789 SAME DAY RESULTS.1792 SAME DAY RESULTS.1796 SAME DAY RESULTS.1800 SAME DAY RESULTS.1804 SAME DAY RESULTS.1808 SAME DAY RESULTS.1812 SAME DAY RESULTS.1816 SAME DAY RESULTS.1820 SAME DAY RESULTS.1824 SAME DAY RESULTS.1828 SAME DAY RESULTS.1832 SAME DAY RESULTS.1836 SAME DAY.
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South Korea is gauging public opinion on a $70,000 baby bonus. That's about 2x GDP per capita, in cash. It's hard to imagine it wouldn't have a big effect if they did it.
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Remember kids: aborting babies helps the deficit but adding immigrants is a fiscal plus.
The 20-week abortion ban being voted on soon would add $175M to the federal deficit due to increased births.
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New Study:. Across almost 14,000 2nd-trimester abortions in Quebec over 30 years. fully 1500 of those abortions failed to kill the infant, and the child was born. ONE IN TEN LATE ABORTED BABIES SURVIVED. "children born alive after abortion are extremely rare" is a lie.
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Disney is extremely confused why making its family films increasingly propagandistic against the conservatives who raise a disproportionate share of children who watch family films may be causing it to lose money.
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You may have heard that China is sterilizing Uyghur women. It's not just that. Ethnic and religious minorities all over China are, by hook or by crook, seeing their family aspirations thwarted, even as the government presses for more Han babies.
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tradboiz gonna hate me for this but. i'm pro dads-in-delivery. it's terrifying and awesome, and it inspires and incredible, wholesome respect and admiration for your wife, and particularly for her particular femininity. nothing more feminine than making life.
Forgotten past. It was not long ago at all that no husbands were ever in a delivery room. Male involvement in delivery is one of the most singular aspects of our modern culture. I'm not sure there has ever been another culture on earth where this is normal.
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Because we changed out we measured pregnancy status in death certificates, and we now have a VASTLY broader definition than any other country has, and the rollout happened one or two states at a time, creating the illusion of a gradual increase.
Why has maternal mortality in the US been *increasing* for the past couple of decades?
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I do think it's worth noting that about 80% of selection on intelligence occurred exactly between 10,000 BC and 6500 BC, with with much less occurring since, and virtually none since 2500 BC.
The Reich paper has shown a lot of people do not understand how there can be selection on variants underlying social phenotypes. They don't get that arson offending is heritable due to the heritability of other traits but instead imagine it's heritable due to 'arson genes'.
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I'm in a weird position where I think Trudeau was justified in driving the truckers off Parliament Hill with whatever force was necessary, but also going after donors is insanely illiberal.
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i guess my take on the ballerina farm thing is that conservatives will absolutely never come out looking good when they let hostile reporters wanderer around their house for a few hours and judge their family, because the reporters are liberals who hate them.
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TikTokers read the published justification for 9/11, feel they recognize the style of argument and claims being made from their woke ideas, and instead of concluding "maybe woke-ism is not so great" land on "maybe Bin Laden is not so bad".
Over the past 24 hours, thousands of TikToks (at least) have been posted where people share how they just read Bin Laden’s infamous "Letter to America," in which he explained why he attacked the United States. The TikToks are from people of all ages, races, ethnicities, and
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it has to be a joke right?. it has to be. a person couldn't say this seriously.
I had a long call with my sister tonight. She has a Bible from 1764 that she picked up in a shop in the UK, where she lives. She read me one of the Chapters, called "Belle and the Dragon." It is a story that includes teleportation, dragons, of course 💃, and Persia and forgotten
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More of the world starting to catch on to what Canada's euthanasia laws are really about. Canada's doctors murder disabled people to cut costs.
Canada allows people with serious disabilities to choose euthanasia in the absence of any other medical issue. Human rights advocates say that devalues the lives of disabled people.
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why christianity was victorious, funerary epigraphy edition
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Now imagine primordial humans. They hunt. They gather. They have some nice leisure time, chillin in caves, paintin on walls, committing infanticide against 25% of their offspring, etc, etc.
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What is the best empirical evidence that therapy actually improves mental health?. I am struggling to find anything credible.
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It IS true that these abortions are an EXTREMELY small share of overall abortions!. But the scale of abortions is so absolutely MASSIVE compared to child mortality that even a teeny tiny sliver of abortions would represent a huge share of child deaths.
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You can only conquer the Aztecs if you first burn your ships. Marriage is like this too. You must burn your ships.
My wife discovered I'd been talking to women on dating sites *just in case* she ever decides to divorce me and she got really upset. I showed her the redpill forums where they talk about how every man needs backup options (women initiate most divorces) but she's still mad, AITA?.
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What I'm hearing from many liberals is, "These abortions of perfectly healthy late-term babies who are absolutely babies with thoughts and pain capability would be HORRIBLE if they happened, but it's a conservative conspiracy theory.". But that's not true!.
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School makes kids commit suicide. Whenever kids are in school, they commit suicide. When you cancel school (snow days, COVID, summer, holidays), they stop committing so much suicide. School is a suicide-generating institution.
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So the author, @andreamatranga , shows us stuff like this graph, which is a pretty compelling case that agriculture was invented when seasonality got crunk, and then spread in a seasonality-biased pattern:
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i think it's important to remember that the actual driver of excessive government spending is Social Security and Medicare, which Trump has promised to protect, not the tiny little NIH budget.
Why do we need a Department of Government Efficiency?. In 2020, the U.S. government spent $4.5 million to spray alcoholic rats with bobcat urine.
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Sometimes you just have to remind people that the US has more children being raised by just one parent than any other country on the planet, and there isn't even really a close 2nd place.
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In 2023, there were only 11,000 deaths of all external causes (accidents, homicides, etc) of people under age 18. Abortions of health viable children make up 18% of all non-natural-causes deaths of children.
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"it should only cost 7% of my income to hire someone to do the hard work of raising my child 20-40 hours a week" is in fact kind of the issue here.
Something deeply, deeply broken in a system where NYC child care is both. - so expensive for buyers, that NYC families have to make $300k to make it affordable (<7% total hhld income) .- so meager for providers, that a quarter of child care workers in the city live in poverty
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This will end badly. I applaud these kids' enthusiasm, I genuinely do: but I'm laying down the marker that recruiting 16 year old crisis survivors as political shock troops ends badly.
The Parkland teens are now getting help from major progressive organizations, including Everytown, Move On, Planned Parenthood, and the Women’s March LA.
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Using the CDC's multiple mortality data, these extremely rare late-term abortions. are nonetheless the second biggest cause of death among people under 18 (after congenital immaturity)
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So in fact, 51.1% of Walz' retirement savings are in stocks. And in fact, 18% of Walz' retirement savings is in private equity!.
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The total fertility rate in Edinburgh, Scotland in 2023 was 0.98. Not 1.98. 0.98.
Edinburgh, Scotland, shows that when you stack apartments, join them wall-to-wall, and build them right up to the property line to form courtyard blocks .
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Headed to the airport to leave Hong Kong now. Ruth and I never wanted to move here. We rejected the call when it was first offered to us. Now, leaving here is one of the most painful things we have had to do.
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And in principle, they DO own stocks, because the pension fund they paid into DOES own stocks. Here's the asset allocation of the fund that Walz' retirement comes from:
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