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For some weird reason, Miami-Dade is looking good for Dems and the mail is only getting bluer
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It's the same picture.
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The two A+ polls that have polled the presidential race so far show:
Harris +5 (Monmouth)
Harris +8 (Marquette)
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This was unprecedented and extremely unexpected.
Guys...I think we're heading for a bluer environment than 2020.
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Why are Democrats outvoting republicans in Minnesota WITH NO MINNEAPOLIS IN???
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Tammy Baldwin got 627k votes and ran uncontested.
THE WHOLE REPUBLICAN FIELD got 552k votes.
This is an INCREDIBLE sign for democrats in November.
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INCREDIBLE news for Dems out of PA!
PHILADELPHIA:
Dem return rate: 42.5%
GOP return rate: 35.1%
MONTGOMERY (big Philly suburb)
Dem rate: 45.9%
GOP rate: 38.4%
ALLEGHENY (Pittsburgh):
Dem rate: 40.6%
GOP rate: 33.2%
LACKAWANNA (Scranton!!!):
Dem rate: 44.7%
GOP rate: 31.9%
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Golden rule of ET: if one side is claiming that their candidate will win by 0.1-0.5%, that candidate is losing.
2024 MI Senate Prediction
Foreign Policy expert Mike Rogers NARROWLY (by ~15,000 votes) scrapes by Elissa Slotkin, outrunning Donald Trump’s loss in the state by .3%.
Rogers victory mainly comes from recapturing Ancestral R’s in the Grand Rapids area, and improving in rurals.
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The Democratic mayor of Miami-Dade won in a landslide.
Never believe voter by party registration numbers.
WE DID IT! I am humbled & honored to have earned the trust of our residents to serve another four years as your Mayor. Together, we achieved a decisive victory, proving that when we unite for progress, we are unstoppable. Let’s celebrate tonight—tomorrow, we continue the work.
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Do Americans think this looks…good???
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People need to remember that NV and GA polls almost always underestimate democrats
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It’s 5pm on election day and these are the results. What is your reaction?
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@NikkiHaleyFan02
The only landslide you know of is a mudslide because you don't clean your ass properly before taking it in
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It’s crazy to me how Hillary Clinton hit 55% in only 8 states
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HARRIS IS WINNING, ACCORDING TO ALLAN LICHTMAN'S CURRENT PREDICTION WITH THE 13 KEYS TO THE WHITE HOUSE!!!!
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Democrats have outvoted Republicans in the Michigan and Pennsylvania Senate races.
Yet another piece of evidence that we are in a bluer environment than 2020.
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I still don’t understand how democrats can win Maricopa by 7% in a senate race in an R+1 year, yet every pundit and conservative has deluded themselves into believing that Trump will win Arizona.
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The final Washington primary result is expected to be D+16, which is a D+4 house environment.
Polling suggests that Kamala Harris will do worse than house Democrats.
Therefore, the environment will be less than D+4 and Donald Trump is favored to win the election.
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Low propensity voters who are MAGA did not turn out in 2022. Only democrats are enthusiastic to vote in midterms. The untapped MAGA base will come out big for Trump in 2024.
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My friend at Kamala Harris's Atlanta rally says the crowd is full to the top
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The Washington primary suggests Dems are on track for a D+4-6 house national environment in November.
The house usually votes 2-3% right of the presidency.
I am not disregarding the Marquette poll. I don't care if it's an "outlier".
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I’m sorry. I can’t not vote conservative when immigration has been a disaster with Trudeau.
I am left-leaning, which I’ve made clear, but we are letting in too many people who cannot follow our social norms.
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Democrats heavily outvoted Republicans in the Michigan primary!
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Picking Josh Shapiro as VP
Pros:
Strongest outperformer Democrats have
From the most crucial swing state
Cons:
🍉 twitter dislikes (((him)))
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@Faj873
Well then, good thing house Democrats are outrunning their 2022 primary ballot by 6%, and the 2020 primary ballot by 2.5%.
It's almost as though I was just providing an example.
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@scott_kernen
The trends from 2008-2012 could not have predicted the trends from 2012-2016 could not have predicted the trends from 2016-2020.
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Republicans only got 14k fewer votes in Dane County than they did in the Supreme Court race.
Democrats got 63k votes fewer.
This signifies an incredible rightward shift in Madison. Harris will lose in a landslide.
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Guys…I think they’re working??? I think I can for once say that I’m actually happy???
Today was the day I finally decided to make a change for the better and start taking my meds
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🚨🚨🚨ALLAN LICHTMAN, ON LIVESTREAM, RATES "No Third Party" KEY AS "likely blue"!!!
This is incredible for Harris!! 🚨🚨🚨
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I do believe Harris will get 48%.
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Arizona is now a toss-up on Polymarket!
There are officially no lean R states on Polymarket.
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Exactly. Phoenix, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Grand Rapids, New Hampshire, and Detroit would NEVER shift left after 2020!!!
We don’t have ANY recent election which shows that!!!
Do people really think 2x Trump voters in the suburbs are going to leave him in droves this cycle?
If one could stick with him through the chaotic negative media coverage in 2016/20, why would the 1/6 narrative deter many from backing him again? Especially as it's been 4 years.
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“Arizona and Georgia will flip, defying their trends since 2016 which have accelerated during the 2022 midterms because we’re running the exact same candidate who caused such trends to occur in the first place for the third time” -Republicans
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This is exactly why Kamala will win Georgia.
The 2022 electorate was TRUMP +5.
Warnock still won.
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@VoteHubUS
Keep in mind that Chester, Bucks, Westmoreland and Delaware haven’t even updated in days. The real lead is WAY larger than this!
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Highest to lowest IQs:
1. Moderate republicans
2. Resist libs
3. MAGA
4. Leftists
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Two things I unironically believe:
1. ActBlue is a laundering scheme
2. Katie Hobbs rigged the 2022 governor race
And I support both of these things.
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I seriously don't understand why people are trying to look for a polling bump for Dems.
When Roe V Wade was overturned, only 2 polls showed a bump, and we were back to seeing R+8 generic ballot polls within 2 weeks.
Polls failed to capture the leftward shift from Roe v Wade.
We won’t know the full impact of the verdict for a few weeks, but based on the data we have so far comparing pre-verdict to post-verdict polls from the same firm, Biden is up 1.0 pts & Trump is down 0.3 pts.
Nothing seismic, but 1.3 pts is more than enough to swing an election.
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Kamala Harris / Josh Shapiro wins.
Kamala Harris / Tim Walz wins.
Kamala Harris / Mark Kelly wins.
Kamala Harris / Ghislaine Maxwell wins.
Kamala Harris / Pete Buttigieg wins.
Kamala Harris / Andy Beshear wins.
We. Are. Not. Going. Back.
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@keviv71
I liked all of those tweets because I genuinely believed that her slogan was I'm With Her and completely forgot about Stronger Together
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Nope, because I start antipsychotics tomorrow :)
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@AllanLichtman
What if Joe Biden resigns and makes Harris president? Wouldn't Dems then preserve the incumbency key?
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Miami-Dade is like 70-30 Harris right now lmfao
Florida Vote-By-Mail Update--
🔵 Democratic 1572 votes
🔴 Republican 1515 votes
⚪️ NPA/Other 978 votes
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Trump being up by 5 in a state Republicans won by 20 yet still being only down by 3% nationally suggests that he is outrunning 2022 Republicans in every swing state. Terrible poll for Kamala.
Suffolk University/USA TODAY/WSVN-TV poll of likely Florida voters:
Trump 47
Harris 42
RFK, Jr. 5
Und 3
Men: Trump 57-33
Women: Harris 50-38
Dems: Harris 88-5
Reps: Trump 90-3
Indies: Harris 41-34-10
Job approvals (total): Trump 55, Harris 40
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It's so funny how the average member of the LGBT community gets relentlessly bullied 10x harder than this, yet nobody ever tells us that we have an excuse to commit atrocities because of that. Grow the fuck up.
Footage of Thomas Matthew Crook getting bullied in school has surfaced
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Biden only won by 0.3% in 2020.
2022 is redder than 2020.
It's over. Mark Kelly is losing.
BREAKING:
Arizona Republicans now have a record-breaking advantage over Democrats in voter registrations.
Per the SOS's April report:
🔴 1,434,982
🔵 1,192,205
That's a +242,777 advantage going into election season.
Our electorate may be redder than ever.
Breakdown in🧵
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This is literal racist propaganda LMFAO there's no way an average country is close to 4 standard deviations below average.
An IQ of 45 would make it impossible for people to even learn languages.
I seriously doubt the majority of people in west Africa are mentally retarded.
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"Walz being progressive will hurt the ticket"
Sure, keep believing that.
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@TwoTimeCharlie0
@GerritSkull
@itsdeaann
You people simply don’t possess the mental capacity to differentiate between strong and weak arguments.
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I WILL say something and I won’t ask for permission to say it.
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What we will see this election:
- West Virginia shifting 12% left
- R+4 Florida
- Trump winning the popular vote
- Tied Virginia
- Wisconsin to the left of Michigan
- Double-digit R Nevada
- Trump winning 30% of the Black vote
- R+3 Alaska
- NH shifting left
- R+8 North Carolina
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ACTBLUE IS ABOUT TO BREAK ITS WEEKLY FUNDRAISING *ALL-TIME RECORD* IN AN HOUR!!!!
DEMOCRATS ARE ABOUT TO HIT THAT MAGIC $220M NUMBER!!!
THIS WAS THE BEST WEEK *EVER* OF DEMOCRATIC GRASSROOTS FUNDRAISING!!!
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This election is nothing like 2016. I feel like half of you who are saying it is weren’t even alive during that time lmao
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D+7 New Mexico and R+1 Virginia and Minnesota but Hispanics are moving 15% right and white people are stagnating and Black people are moving 30% right which makes only an R+3 Georgia which gets cancelled out by white seniors flocking to Biden. Got it.
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Today was the day I finally decided to make a change for the better and start taking my meds
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HOW??? I NEED TO FUCKING MOVE
The median wage for those with a bachelor's degree or higher in the US is $87,568.
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Me, asking someone from Phoenix: hey, do you think Kamala will win Arizona? How is Maricopa looking?
Person from Buttsville, South Dakota: no. She won’t win the state because of the border and inflation
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I’m watching transgender porn at my friend’s house on a big TV screen at 1:15am
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Biden is FAVORED in Georgia.
The Biden 2020, Warnock 2021 and Warnock 2022 coalitions were very different from each other.
Dems need to EITHER get superb Black turnout (2021), heavy suburban strength (2022), or something in btwn (2020). Trump needs Biden to COLLAPSE to win GA.
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I just KNOW that these people still have PA going for Trump despite knowing that Harris will do better than Biden in Philly
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@NewsWire_US
This tweet is purposely written ambiguously.
Harris does not support ALL THREE of those things SPECIFICALLY for undocumented immigrants.
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I seriously don’t understand this blind trust in polling.
John Fetterman won 70% of voters aged 18-29.
If anybody is stupid enough to believe that we are going to see a *27%* shift among young voters in 2 years, that’s on them.
Re the talk around Swift with young voters & voter registration, Harris & Democrats are struggling on both counts vs Sept. 2020.
Harris' margin w/ voters under 30 is 15 pts -- far worse than Biden's 28 pts. Also, the GOP has made big gains vs. Dems in NC/PA voter registration.
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Hi everybody. I’m back for maybe half a day.
I have been much happier lately. I’ve found my passion. I’m also sober.
However, I’m currently in psychosis. I don’t feel my body and I am hallucinating often. I need Twitter to take my mind off of it right now or I will go insane.
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Tricia Cotham
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@OkayHeyJay
He is sleepwalking into losing Wisconsin too since he’s not even campaigning there
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