Washington Primary Evangelist #BlorthCarolina 🌉
@schlagteslinks
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Anti-croSStab polemicist. Principled poll skeptic. I coined 'agedep' (it's fake). NYT/Siena disrespecter. Neither party benefits much from high turnout. He/him.
The Context 🥥🌴
Joined August 2018
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My reaction when people ask me what I think about the results of a particular poll:
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Guys why did Kamala Harris make the Bank of Japan raise rates
STOCK MARKETS CRASHING. I TOLD YOU SO!!! KAMALA DOESN’T HAVE A CLUE. BIDEN IS SOUND ASLEEP. ALL CAUSED BY INEPT U.S. LEADERSHIP!
Donald Trump Truth Social 11:07 PM EST 08/04/24
@realDonaldTrump
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The answer is clear
Which pop star would be the most likely to agree to use their concert to trap a serial killer?
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Thinking about how hard this went again
TIME Magazine’s cover the day after the Presidential debate vs today.
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Trump has never sounded intelligent but he wasn't always as bad as he is now. In 2016 he sounded way more normal & smarter (relatively speaking) & had way more messaging discipline
Also note the respect he affords Hillary: "I want you to be very happy. It's very important to me"
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Biden storyline: "IDK I'm starting to get a vague feeling that Bibi might not be such a trustworthy partner after all."
Trump storyline: "The Radical Left wants everyone to think I shidded and farded in court. Have they no shame?!"
RFK Jr storyline:
NEW: RFK Jr. may have made up a wild story about being ambushed by Indigenous people in a bow-and-arrow attack, and retaliating by throwing a stick of dynamite at them
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Round 2 let's go
BREAKING: Reproductive rights officially on the ballot in the state of Arizona
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Biden and Biden Administration employees watching young people start learning about the admin's accomplishments by way of people making a positive case for electing Harris, after getting zero credit from them for any of those achievements for 4 years
Kamala Harris' notable achievements as VP of the United States:
• Led the “Fight for Reproductive Freedoms” initiative to protect and expand access to reproductive health care.
• Advanced LGBTQI+ rights by supporting legislation to protect marriage equality and reversing the
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MICHELLE OBAMA TOLD PEOPLE TO IGNORE THE POLLS
"if we see a bad poll, and we will, put down that phone"
-- Michelle Obama
Quote of the election LMAO
@schlagteslinks
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Gavin Newsom sucks and would be a terrible candidate for president but his most redeeming quality (which might actually help him in a future Democratic primary after all this) is how much visceral hatred he has for the current Supreme Court and Republican jurisprudence in general
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I regret to inform you all that the median voter's politics is asending to levels that are both unprecedented and horrifying
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"JD Vance will virtually be stationed in Pennsylvania until the end of the campaign"
The news that Trump is going virtually station JD Vance in Pennsylvania for the rest of the campaign shows that his path to the presidency is becoming PA or nothing.
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Biden and Trump are miles apart from each other on nearly every policy issue
i for one am excited to watch two 80+ yo men yap abt a buncha issues they almost completely align on wrt policy, while acting as though they're miles apart from one another!
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Scoop: Nancy Pelosi has endorsed Supervisor Dean Preston's reelection bid in San Francisco
Preston, a Democratic socialist, has been a favorite target of Elon Musk, who called for the supervisor to be imprisoned last year
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It just keeps going up...
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"[Kamala Harris] told [her advisers] she wasn't going to listen to the pollsters herself and would instead trust the instincts she had buried under self-doubt for so long."
Nothing so far has made me admire Harris more than the next sentence of this article:
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We are ALL going to make it
How the workers in the 100 most common occupations in America donated.
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This is Nothing Ever Happens's greatest victory since Prigozhin abruptly turned tail and did not proceed all the way to Moscow
Live update: Netanyahu called off retaliatory strike on Iran after call with Biden – New York Times
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No it hasn't lol.
Funny thing is, this entire debacle has actually galvanized the Democratic Party behind Biden/Harris like never before.
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(stands up abruptly) I'm bored. Let's start freaking out
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The vibes for the past 3 weeks
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@_glorianas
It's crazy how much he's fallen off since 2016. And it's pretty sad how much the country's (and really the entire world's) standards have fallen off since then
Hillary absolutely cooked him on substance in that debate. Even on style, I'd say she came out on top. But no one cared
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They used the flag of South Vietnam...
Join us LIVE for the official virtual kickoff of
@VietsForHarris
on Thurs, Sept 5 @ 9pm ET/6pm PT! Hear from our Vietnamese American electeds & the VAfH team about why we’re excited to support
@KamalaHarris
for President, & find out how YOU can get involved today.
#VietsforHarris
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FLORIDA HD-35
The electorate:
🟥 GOP 9766 voters (44.2%)
🟦 DEM 8803 voters (39.8%)
🟨 NPA/Others 3551 votes (16.0%)
How they voted
🟦 Democratic Candidate 11376 votes (51.3%)
🟥 Republican Candidate 10778 votes (48.7%)
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I have this wild notion that Trump might conceivably run to Biden's left on Israel-Palestine in the general election, like he did with Hillary and Iraq. He's been noticeably quiet on the issue since Oct. 7.
🇺🇸🇮🇱 Trump: “If you hate Israel, we don't want you in our country. I will arrest and deport all Hamas and jihad supporters.”
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"Reverse 2016" is a theory in the same way that gravity is a theory.
The NYT has found the coolest kind of guy - Republican trump supporter who is moving to Paris if Harris win
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I am once again tapping the sign.
People in politics have this desperate need to believe that someone, somewhere knows what’s going to happen. Nobody knows what’s going to happen.
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"No matter what the polls say, we can't let up."
HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON HAS FINALLY EMBRACED POLL DENIALISM
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The "Reverse 2016" vibes are hitting levels previously thought unreachable
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I'm crying at how titanic the vibeshift online has been
Left: Biden launches his re-election campaign in April 2023
Right: Harris launches her campaign today
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I've literally never been more convinced that Biden's team knows what they are doing than after reading this
The origin of these divisions is that the Biden team has a very different take on why Biden won in 2020 and Dems did well in 2022 than many other members of the party.
Biden team thinks “soul of the nation” and democracy were key, other Democrats disagree.
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Before Biden dropped out I was legit worried that a GOP narrative of "If he's too unfit to run, he's too unfit to still be president" would gain serious traction
So it's kinda cool that the country went "Nah it's fine, he can stay on as president for 6 more months as a treat"
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Silicon Valley the instant Biden was out of the picture, apparently
The shift toward Harris in silicon valley is very real. Seeing more momentum in this direction each day from founders, vcs, and more. Growing view that Trump was chaotic and unpredictable, and Harris can be a more stable, pro tech, pro business President.
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His vocabulary used to contain words like "behemoth" and "cavalier"
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-Attempts to sound presidential/competent
-Focused on his message and campaign theme of "Outsider vs establishment) enough to score some points: "I'll take the admirals and the generals any day over the political hacks"
-Bipartisan appeal: "Secretary Clinton and I agree"
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Undecided voters who voted for Biden in 2020:
🇺🇲 2024 GE: YouGov/Economist
🟦 Harris: 46% [+5]
🟥 Trump: 44% [=]
🟨 RFK Jr: 3% [-2]
[+/- change vs July 21-23]
—
#4
(2.9/3.0) | 1,430 RV | July 27-30
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Live Trump reaction:
NEW: JD Vance attacked Jennifer Aniston for her rebuke of his comments about “childless cat ladies who are miserable at their own lives.”
Vance called Aniston "disgusting" and implied she's "creepy" for praying that his daughter can bear children.
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This decision might be the single best thing for Biden that's ever happened since Dobbs (provided they use it correctly) but this isn't even just about 2024 anymore.
The court just signalled that they're willing to let any Republican president be a dictator.
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The funniest possible thing that could happen now is Kamala performing very poorly in the VP debate against Vance
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The right-wing equivalent of "Biden is worse than Trump because Roe v. Wade was overturned under Biden" just dropped
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This is still the craziest exit poll finding I've ever seen.
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"I've never been one to really believe in the polls"
VICE PRESIDENT KAMALA HARRIS IS A POLL DENIALIST
Kamala Harris at SF fundraiser: "Let's not take anything for granted. I know there's a lot of enthusiasm out there... I've never been one to really believe in the polls... What we know is the stakes are so high and we can take nothing for granted in this critical moment."
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ALEXANDRIA-OCASIO CORTEZ IS A POLL DENIALIST
@AOC
But AOC also says that she believes that the political class (pundits, media, donors, organization leaders) started to waver after the debate and started to say we need to jump ship based on polling.
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There was once a time when Donald Trump was disciplined enough to attack the incumbent Democratic president's foreign policy and tie his opponent to it without sounding unhinged.
Did he sound stupid and uninformed? Yeah. But not unhinged. He sounded like an average person
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Eric Adams said fuck your indictments, fuck backstabbing Democratic politicians like Brad Lander and Adrienne Adams, fuck the FBI, and fuck the mainstream media. He is not resigning. Let's go!
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Every election cycle there's like 5 or 10 formerly reputable posters that huff the vibes a little too hard and go kind of insane. Sometimes recoverable (~40% survival rate) but always sad to see.
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18-34:
Trump: 54%
Biden: 25%
65+
Biden: 54%
Trump: 35%
I'm calling for a complete and total shutdown on the public polling industry until we can figure out what the hell is going on
2024 Minnesota GE:
Biden 44% (+2)
Trump 42%
Other 11%
.
@surveyusa
/
@KSTP
, 608 LV, 4/3-7
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Ngl, it's kinda epic that Nate Silver included a bunch of garbage polls in his 2022 models, causing their accuracy to decline substantially, got yelled at (and possibly fired) for doing so and then decided to double down and do the exact same thing again
It's tempting fate
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The way Democrats are going after JD Vance right now is reminding me a lot of how they went after Dr. Oz 2 years ago. Relentless attacks coupled with non-stop mockery in a manner that doesn't let the target regain their bearings.
Hopefully the outcome will be similar
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If you are a Kamala supporter, the last thing you want is for her to be handed the nomination in a back room. To have any hope, she has to win it at an open convention.
The public needs to feel bought in, not foisted upon, especially after having been brazenly lied to
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"Moderate"
"Electable"
"New tone"
"Statesmanlike"
"Unifying"
"Disciplined"
"Expanding the coalition"
"A new Trump"
Actually, he's the same guy he's always been. If anything, he's getting worse every day
We are not going back.
Trump: I did not know she was Black until a number of years ago, when she happened to turn Black, and now she wants to be known as Black. Is she Indian or is she Black?
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Kamala Harris has continued to gain in the polls. This means that her odds of winning have gotten worse.
#Latest
@NateSilver538
forecast (chance of winning)
August 14
🟦 Harris: 56.7%
🟥 Trump: 42.7%
.
August 27
🟦 Harris: 51.5%
🟥 Trump: 48.3%
@Polymarket
swing states odds 👇
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Counterpoint:
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[REPOST TO CORRECT INACCURACIES]
Secretaries of State who will certify final statewide election results in the top swing states:
1. AZ: Adrian Fontes (D)
2. GA: Brad Raffensperger (anti-Stop the Steal R)
3. NV: Cisco Aguilar (D)
4. PA: Al Schmidt (anti-Stop the Steal R)
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Results of the 2020 presidential election in Washington state:
Biden: 57.97%
Trump: 38.77%
Margin: D+19.20%
Final results of the 2024 Senate primary election in Washington state:
Democratic voteshare: 58.08%
Republican voteshare: 38.85%
Margin: D+19.23%
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POV: It's 9 PM Eastern Time on November 5th, 2024, and the Republicans ran on this message from Cernovich
Alcohol culture is woke. Boozing means participating in cultural rot. This is what the left wants. Liquor stores stayed open while gyms and churches shut down. Conservatives don’t want to admit this. Couple drinks here and there fine. Otherwise - WOKE.
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Are these 0.6 electoral votes for Robert Francis Kennedy Jr. in the room with us right now?
New model from Nate Silver with Harris v. Trump just published:
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@smomwetgobam
They should have released some details about what "changed minds" means. That could mean literally anything:
Biden ->Trump
Trump->Biden
Biden->3rd party
Trump->3rd party
Biden->Undecided
Trump->Undecided
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Seven States to rule us all
Seven States could swing it
Seven States will decide them all, and in the Electoral College, bind them
Kamala Harris announces rally schedule per
@politico
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Western Wisconsin
Detroit, Michigan
Raleigh, North Carolina
Savannah, Georgia
Phoenix, Arizona
Las Vegas, Nevada
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Looks like the Biden campaign is finally deploying campaign infographics that have been carefully tested with focus groups in order to ensure that they appeal to the key swing voters in the 2024 election: the zoomers 👀
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The Gen Z vibe shift is most clearly exemplified by this old BidenHQ post hitting FYPs as a KamalaHQ post.
Look at the old comments and how negative they are. Look at the new comments and how positive they are. For the same exact post.
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Wow, just the very fact that Harris is going to be the nominee has nuked all of the stupid voting discourse that happens on here out of existence
Not only are voting for Trump and not voting getting cooked, now even voting for anyone but Harris is getting cooked
why are non americans telling us to vote for THIRD PARTY?????
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Top Trump campaign staffer in New Hampshire resigns after told volunteers
@TeamTrump
has determined it's "no longer a battleground state."
#NHPolitics
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He even implied that he'd accept the results if he lost by saying "If she wins, I will absolutely support her"!
Look at how they massacred our once-moderate and electable boy
@ding3rs
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It's ball-knower on ball-knower violence
“Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, convinced Biden will lose, has been working the phones since June 27 in hopes of finding a way to ease him off the ticket.”
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The Amazon rainforest:
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FiveThirtyEight averages on Election Day:
WI: Biden+8.4 (Actual: Biden+0.6)
MI: Biden+8 (Biden+2.6)
FL: Biden+2.5 (Trump+3.4)
OH: Trump+0.7 (Trump+8)
IA: Trump+1.3 (Trump+8.2)
TX: Trump+1.2 (Trump+5.6)
MT: Trump+4.4 (Trump+16.4)
MO: Trump+8 (Trump+15.4)
2020 polls weren’t that bad besides Florida and Wisconsin. I feel like there is a large collective misremembering based on the narrative and not the actual numbers
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Kyle commends the resist libs for almost always getting things right
"Somebody go print out the resistance liberal apology forms"
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"Don't buy the idea of NC 'in play' for Harris."
"Don't waste time and resources in places like NC"
Don't buy the idea of NC 'in play' for Harris. If you have ever been to NC, you know how conservative it is.
GA is in play, NV def, MAYBE even AZ. Don't waste time and resources in places like NC and FL.
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The themes of his 2016 and 2024 campaigns are basically one & the same: "America is now a failing nation". But he hit it in much more normal ways: "We always lose", "We're getting ripped off", "We're falling behind". Not yelling "We're getting destroyed by these horrible people"
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Biden winning re-election would probably not do much to reverse and defeat anti-LGBTQ policies in Florida, it's true. But Biden winning re-election would definitely ensure that anti-LGBTQ policies are not enforced by the federal government in *every* state
In 2020, I voted for Biden. Since then, my state banned gender-affirming care for minors, censored LGBTQ studies, and made it a criminal misdemeanor for me to use the women’s restroom at my college.
We’re done hearing “vote harder.” It’s time to organize:
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Democratic nonresponse believers we are SO back
Poll denialism to the moon
🦊🚨 NEW Fox News Polls
ARIZONA
Harris 48
Trump 51
Sep 20-24, 2024, AZ LV ±3.5
GEORGIA
Harris 51
Trump 48
Sep 20-24, 2024, GA LV ±3.5
Full results from the Polling Unit:
Arizona -
Georgia -
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Babe wake up, they just dropped a 500 kiloton Discourse Nuke
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@Livhistory_
Remember when people were saying that embracing electric vehicles would cost Dems Michigan?
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Mississippi Democrats in a Trump+16 state despite not winning a state office in 2 decades // Florida Democrats in a Trump+3 state after not winning a state office in 2 decades
Gotta hand it to Mississippi Dems, even if they don’t win tonight. They haven’t won almost anything in 20 years but they keep putting their best foot forward and getting respectably close
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Biden should immediately take him up on this offer. He's got nothing to lose and would have the opportunity to shut the media and electeds up (if he thinks he can)
At his rally just now, Trump challenged Biden to another debate this week. Says it will be no moderator, "man to man," "no holds barred."
Also challenged him to an 18-hole golf match.
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That's right. The liberals are gonna take patriotism, law and order, shameless economic pandering and the military in the national divorce. And MAGA cannot prevent that because they're out of touch and not smart or disciplined
I just watched the Harris campaign rally in Vegas and picked up on some notable things:
- Chants of USA! USA! USA!
- “Law and Order” was used often
- “No tax on tips” (Trump campaign promise)
- People with Camo hats
- Talks of “Patriotism”
The optic rebrand is wild.
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Look I realize no one's in the mood for "Reverse 2016" comparisons, but every single Silicon Valley elite dipshit lining up to kiss Trump's ring is a bit too on the nose
Mark Zuckerberg calls Donald Trump ‘badass’:
“Seeing Trump get up after getting shot in the face and pump his fist in the air with the American flag is one of the most badass things I’ve ever seen in my life. As an American — it’s hard to not get emotional about that spirit. I
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"Democrats lost the House in 2022, so clearly there must have been a Red Wave"
The "Red Wave" in question:
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@vanillaopinions
Where are these 150k paying email jobs with only 1 hour of work time and can I have one of them pretty please and thank you
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I'm gonna be real with you all, I'm starting to think the black voter crosstabs might just be fake
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Did...did they not tell him in advance.....?
DNC Chair Jaime Harrison on Biden's withdraw from the 2024 race: "I'm emotional, because I am still riding with Biden. I still support my president."
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Counties considered political "bellwethers" since 1980 onwards:
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I was in the second-to-last year of high school when Trump first rode down that escalator in 2015, and in the last year when he won in 2016. Since then, I've earned 2 college degrees, moved far away from home and started my first job.
Nine. Years.
And he still hasn't gone away.
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*Walter White voice* I won.
NEW FOX NEWS POLLS
Michigan 🟦 Harris 49% 🟥 Trump 49%
Minnesota 🟦 Harris 52% 🟥 Trump 46%
Pennsylvania 🟦 Harris 49% 🟥 Trump 49%
Wisconsin 🟥 Trump 50% 🟦 Harris 49%
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Checks out. Most of them probably still like & will vote for Trump, but it's hard to get super fired up about electing a guy who:
1. Has been in the public eye for 9 straight years now
2. Is running his 3rd straight general election campaign for president
3. Is now 78 years old
Drove from Minneapolis, thru rural Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula today and only saw 2 Trump signs in Wisconsin. Crazy, considering when we made this drive in 2016, we stopped counting at 200 because there were so many.
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This is so interesting.
"Trump’s biggest fans could be found among “the elite of the left-behind,” meaning people “who were doing well within a region that was not.”"
What I learned reading Arlie Hochschild's new book on Trump country
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