Frank Frijoles
@FrankFrijoles
Followers
623
Following
199
Media
17
Statuses
532
Monte Carlo mong. Asymmetric AF. Once saw Rufus’s golf (with 20c juice added). DMs open
Joined February 2023
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@joebrennanjr
@MLB
@primesportsbook
@T20WorldCup
Looking forward to the event and your ride along. Cricket a bit more complex than baseball, but probably got a better chance with t20 than tests or ODIs
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Good summer filler content
EPISODE 164 PRESENTED BY
@Pinnacle
🚨
@robpizzola
and
@KirkEvans0
are joined by
@FrankFrijoles
to discuss niche sports, origination, networking, past edges, and a whole lot more!
WATCH:
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@dlGgSyeTaGaiN
@AhaanRungta
@DavidCBets
@Calebsmi28
You definitely wouldn’t want to double down on a $50 bet with a good sized edge that wins 98% of the time.
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@hagrinBPR
@sprotzbettor
Gotta grade it for yourself mostly. You’re doing a good job with these (love the detailed notes) but part of the appeal of the original BPR account was brutal honesty with what he found interesting or idiotic, not dumbing it down to the median Circles Off listener
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@melly19196545
@Mr_Googie_Hog
@ShipTheJustice
@patrickkeogan
@FDSportsbook
@JeffreyBenson12
@DavidPurdum
@ActionNetworkHQ
@bostonred88
He’s likely lying about his restriction for engagement. If you’re familiar with Fanduel’s stake factors you’d know this
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@sprotzbettor
He forgot to remind people to buy subs to Unabated after wishing a painful death on Shipper. Even the shill game at Unabated going downhill
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@AbnormallyDist
Next book will tell all: “Conquering Other’s Edges: Stealing and Conniving to Victory”
Subtitle: How I became the second most successful sports betting graduate of Rose Hulman
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@chattim3
@d_feustel
Probably BUCS football or some weird league where he found a -2500 that should be -3500 and can tell us all what a great edge it was, which it probably is for him when he can’t steal edges from others
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@FezzikSports
Maybe you should ask your 10 Princeton grads to explain to you what the word vig means
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@Matthew_Trench
Deploying all available capital definitely not recommended for aspiring professional bettors
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@chattim3
@GamblingDrama
@AlwaysBetPod
@JoeyKnish22
@CirclesOffHQ
@PiskyPositivo
Tries for Don Corleone, ends up as Don Cherry
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@sportstalkmatt
How far off was the soccer-based algo on the Yotes live ML at this point, Matt?
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@SharpClarkeNFL
While Kelly does sometimes call for -EV hedges, the idea that he put down a shitload of very -EV hedges to cover his (supposedly +EV) super small edge bet is amazing stuff even if you take him at face value. And of course I'm pretty skeptical that he made all these hedges
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@agni77
@dlGgSyeTaGaiN
@NotoriousOHM
@kpelton
The main program for performing at altitude is living at altitude. Everything else is marginal stuff
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@AbnormallyDist
The scam back in the day offshore was close the book and run with the money after football season. The scam now in regulated world is to have a -EV futures basket and somehow get to cancel your futures before they cash. Needs to be challenged in court.
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@TheTailgateTent
@norealcappers
You claimed you need to hit 57% on CFB sides/totals to match a 9 month t-bill lol
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@AhaanRungta
@dlGgSyeTaGaiN
@DavidCBets
@Calebsmi28
Damn, supposedly elite institutions having their grads expose them left and right on Gambling Twitter these days. First
@Stanford
Alex now
@MIT
Ahaan. Another one for
@NFLPinnacleBeat
’s list
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@Golfpunter1
@FrankFrijoles
had a different experience with elihu but maybe his philosophy has changed since his days at sbr
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This also might explain “Steve Fezzik”
lol this is an absolutely insane story
-thief steals someone’s identity
-thief gets a job in hospital it
-thief manages to get that persons birth certificate with answers from
-person who’s identity was stolen is homeless, can’t open a bank account
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6K
43K
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@Golfpunter1
@chattim3
Yeah the problem with sociopaths is they learn to talk a good game in order to exploit others
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@Rex_Beyers
@mr_peanutbettor
Maybe your opinion sucks, Rex. You’ve had decades to accumulate capital and instead you’re stuck on here yelling at clouds and begging for jobs
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@MikeVivian
Also heard RAS will enter a team into archery. A 50% hit rate will be considered a win.
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@sprotzbettor
@TheTailgateTent
Hard to get ahead when you need to hit 57% on NCAAF sides just to break even with a 9 month t-bill
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Circa Colorado App Review: needs work
@CircaSports
updated their app with significant changes last week. First the good; they now have their full menu available that they offer in NV. This means many more yes/no markets and posted limits in the app.
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@FezzikSports
It doesn’t even have to be breakeven. Kelly routinely calls for -ev hedges when unconstrained by limits. Less relevant to large bankrolls but important for small and midsized bankrolls.
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@BillKrackman
That's simply not true. For winning bettors, it will increase edge. For losing bettors it will increase house edge. But if the losing bettors are there purely for entertainment, then the joy of hitting one may be their optimal play anyway.
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@LasVegasLocally
It’s cute that Vegas fans think this is something special. The skating out of the Knight’s helmet with a fog machine is directly ripped off from SJ, who’ve been skating out of a Shark’s head/mouth with fog machine since the 90s
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@MLBksPSYCHIC
@JeffreyBenson12
was saying sports betting companies can’t put locked up money in interest bearing accounts. Seems like it would be better for everyone if they could put them into into “risk-free” interest bearing accounts
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“Consistent” like your work trying to get your money out of Betislands
@d_feustel
knowing they were insolvent while you worked for sbr?
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A few more Colorado books bit dust today.
@maverickgaming
switched to retail/kiosk only and
@SkyUteSports
closed its doors.
@astraffon
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@FezzikSports
-115 so hard to beat when there’s tons of stuff out there that should be -190 lol
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@YennySports
@AnalyticsCapper
None of the math shown in your link invalidates what I said as it only addresses multiple -EV bets, which I agree magnifies how bad they are by parlaying. The reverse is true for +EV legs, as shown in the quoted tweet above. Also points 7 and 8 are wrong in the link you provided
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The fun part of the
@PlayUp_US
situation is that they’re extremely slow to pay under normal circumstances too
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@norealcappers
@ShipTheJustice
@vandyfan_curt
Yeah I was only able to get in 112k in. Couldn’t even get the full limit bet amount down on my cooked account
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@JeffreyBenson12
@AdamBjorn2
This is where I respect FanDuel (on basically this thing only). You can see their normal limits without logging in and then your personal limits when logged in.
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@allie_sports
Trying to think of a worse VIP experience than Caesar’s. Even Covid lockdown VIP with DK where the main perk was a cooking class with Tiki Barber was better
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@YennySports
@AnalyticsCapper
“Research” doesn’t show any such thing. Basic arithmetic shows that they amplify ROI. In other words, two +EV bets will have higher ROI parlayed together and two -EV bets will have a more negative ROI parlayed together. There is nothing inherently -EV about parlays
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@FezzikSports
When I say “I made a moneyline -250” I definitely mean something entirely different
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@AdamBjorn2
Free rolling is definitely bad, just like the time
@bookmaker_eu
took 2 maxes on a champions league alt over, then took down the market and didn’t void the bet (which wasn’t a palp) until the 4th goal was scored in the first half. Someone should definitely hold them accountable
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@SharpClarkeNFL
This is definitely the kind of insight that will have you beating NFL widely available spreads near post
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@Gertzye
@CirclesOffHQ
@KirkEvans0
@NFLPinnacleBeat
Lost a rugby bet. Can’t afford a good mic. But looking for recs in any case
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@vegastbone
They are definitely Mickey Mouse. They processed an 80k withdrawal via PayPal the wrong way which added $2300 in fees. When I said WTF they said well obviously there is a fee for using PayPal (stated nowhere on their site obviously). Managed to get the transaction reversed…
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@FezzikSports
@CaesarsSports
@beatingthebook
Team outperforms expectation by ~1.4 games and their win total goes up 2 games. CRAZY
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@PlusEVAnalytics
@bronerp4p
@AbnormallyDist
@CirclesOffHQ
@Pinnacle
@GeorgeTsilfidis
@TheHammerHQ
That’s entirely possible. Most books are better run today than they were a decade ago and AI may accelerate that process. But if books and the public become so much smarter, you’re not going to beat a 25% hold market with final price uncertainty either.
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@bronerp4p
@joeyisaks
@JeffreyBenson12
@giantsbadgers
@CircaSports
If you’re that much better than the market, at some point you’ll become the market
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@sprotzbettor
@rxgamble
@bet_bash
For sure. And anyone who wants “atmosphere models” can take a cab to the Rhino or any number of well known similar venues
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@JeffreyBenson12
Never heard of circa. Do you guys have an app? Want to know the following odds
Thunder
Nuggets
Wolves
Clippers
Mavs
Suns
Lakers
Pelicans
Kings
Warriors
Rockets
Jazz
Grizzlies
Spurs
Uconn
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The new app also does not have FaceID for log in or even a way to save your password, which means typing it out every single time you log in. Frustrating in combination with the crashes and forced restarts.
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@sportstalkmatt
@propdude7
@dlGgSyeTaGaiN
@FullTiltPokerAg
Matt, the only thing you’re crushing is your keyboard with whatever harebrained thought pops in your head at that moment
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@RASPicks
@TrevorSimons11
@adamchernoff
Gee, why would anyone distrust a tout with marketing like this?
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@FerrisB_86
Could be worthwhile offshore too. Once upon a time I had a 20% stake factor on RIP Tony’s book. Checked a couple years later and it was suddenly 200%. There was a god but it wasn’t Tony that day
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We all know why
@CircaSports
did this, and it definitely makes sense for them, but it needs a lot of work and for the time being is a pretty big downgrade for players.
6/6
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@CUBuffaloBill
@SKOBUFFS22
Most big schools would not let him have the control he has at CU. Not impossible but do you really see SEC boosters taking a back seat to Deion?
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The first is that there is no desktop site and they are now app-only. The app itself is clunky and frequently crashes, particularly if it has been open for any significant period of time.
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@dlGgSyeTaGaiN
@walls_edward
High end:
Tavernetta
Temaki Den
Beckon
Hon mention: Restaurant Olivia, Wolf’s Tailor, Barolo Grill, Avelina
Low-to-mid range:
Hops and Pie
D Bar
Rupert’s
Hon mention: Rosenberg’s, Famous Original J’s, Adelitas
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@JeffreyBenson12
Thank you. How could you not want to write more on a sport that produces this kind of quote from the Australian PM
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@JLazzy23
@ToddFuhrman
@JeffreyBenson12
This is a pretty poor explanation. The shorter and better one is that the probability you assign to the event is greater than the implied probability of the odds offered. No need to be x% greater for there to be value, although that might be one’s personal bet cutoff
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@deanondraft
Why are teams not making RFA offers anyway to put competitors in a tougher salary cap position?
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@Flupnolide
@RufusPeabody
@NFLPinnacleBeat
@JTDPeabody
@TelemachusModel
-105 on the other side. Now without even being optimal you can just arb the whole thing and have >>>EV and EG
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@YennySports
@AnalyticsCapper
8 says the only use for parlays is to make the book think you are a loser. Wrong. They’re literally part of an optimal betting strategy per Kelly. Correlated parlays are another obvious situation. They’re also useful at some books for getting more down: max as a straight & parlay
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@John_Mehaffey
@TheRyanHess
@us_advantage
They’d also been effectively shut down for awhile. They were taking $20 max on NBA spreads for new accounts.
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@daliman13
-330 with 80% win rate is not 14% eROI lol. Might not want to make basic errors that are obviously wrong when calling others idiots
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@d_feustel
@AbnormallyDist
Let’s say they are really a 54% bettor. Min 50 plays, max 150, only spreads. At any time after 50 they are over 54.5%, they stop. If under, they keep going until they’re over or hit 150 plays. They’re >.75 to not pay insurance and that doesn’t include gaming the odds with MLs
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@PlusEVAnalytics
@AudacityOfHoops
The reasonable thing to do here would be to grade 9 and 10 as dead heat and the rest as wins or losses. Is fair and book still keeps its theoretical hold. Grading 9 and 10 as losses still outrageous as it was before
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@dlGgSyeTaGaiN
@hoffytime
20. PointsBet. Nothing to say that hasn’t been said a million times.
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@walls_edward
@dlGgSyeTaGaiN
Gonna become a first time father some time between now and Sunday so probably won’t be able to for awhile but will keep that in mind once things settle down
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@IWONTHEMONEY7
@spanky
@PromoCactus
@plusEVhotdog
We are all waiting with bated breath to hear the deep insights of people who post promo lines and then whine about getting limited on them
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