Dean
@deanondraft
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Crazy to think Alperen Sengun won MVP of a high level pro league at age 18, then NBA teams proceeded to draft Davion Mitchell, Ziaire Williams, James Bouknight, Josh Primo, Chris Duarte, and Corey Kispert all over him
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Worst contract in the NBA.
The point of the supermax is to reward actual stars, not slightly above average starters who luckboxed their way onto an all-NBA team.
BREAKING: Boston Celtics star Jaylen Brown has agreed to a five-year, $304 million supermax contract extension with the franchise, per sources. This is the richest deal in NBA history, negotiated by agent Jason Glushon.
Fully guaranteed, with a trade kicker. No player option.
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CP3 is a far bigger upgrade over Poole than Dame is over Jrue, and the swap cost about 2% as much
What a deal for GSW
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Orlando starter ages:
Black 19
Suggs 22
Franz 22
Paolo 21
Goga 24
And they might be a top 4 team in the East. They are going to be a problem for the conference for a while.
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@SonicArray3
Twins probably go higher if they played anywhere other than OTE
It’s such a new and random context it was hard to know if they could play or not. If they played G-League it would have been clear they are > Scoot
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One random team LeBron will never pick but would be cool if it happened: Utah
Rubio/Mitchell/LeBron/Jingles/Gobert give me all of that please
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Franz was better than Cade in college, he was better as a rookie, and he will remain better for the entirety of their careers.
Franz Wagner hits dagger 3 then picks Ja’s pocket to seal it
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Rockets win their 3rd straight blowout to improve to 4-3 with +5.9 PD.
Alperen Sengun averaging 18.3 pts 8.3 rebs 6.6 asts 1.7 tovs 62.7% TS on the year. Rare intersection of high assists + low tovs + high TS. He has been hands down their best player.
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Dennis Lindsey is sneaking up the GM rankings, as stealing Rubio + Mitchell for near free are two of the sharpest moves of the offseason
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Keyonte George 4 game averages:
20 pts, 5.7 assists, 1.5 turnovers
He has fewer total turnovers (6) in his four games than Kobe Bufkin had (8) in his one game where he scored 8 points.
He's in shape and looks more athletic. By far biggest stock raiser of summer league so far
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Wingspans of players who were underrated in draft and became defensive studs:
Siakam: 7'3.25
Giannis: 7'3
Kawhi: 7'3
Millsap: 7'2
RobCov: 7'2
Draymond: 7'1.25
Wingspan is super important for perimeter D. If there's a secret D stud in this draft, it's PJ Washington @ 7'2.5"
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The most underrated player in NBA right now is Franz Wagner
He is going to help Paolo win ROY when the magic sneak into the play ins
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2022 re-draft
1. Paolo
2. Kessler
(Gap)
3. Jabari
4. Chet
5. D Daniels
6. Sochan
7. Duren
8. JDub
9. Benny Math
10. Keegan
11. Tari
12. AJ Griffin
13. Braun
14. Sharpe
15. Mark Williams
16. Ivey
Quick and dirty ranking. Gets fuzzy after top 2 with broad tier.
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Best prospects of the past 10 years:
1. Anthony Davis
2. Luka Doncic
3. Jaren Jackson Jr.
4. Joel Embiid
5. Lonzo Ball
6. Karl Anthony-Towns
7. Ben Simmons
8. Blake Griffin
9. James Harden
10. John Wall
11. Kyrie Irving
Two teams are getting franchise changing stars tonight
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Bagley over Luka and Jaren is going to be remembered as one of the biggest blunders in draft history
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Man the Warriors have been killing it today. Great Poole/CP3 trade, great Podz pick, great TJD pick.
Bob Myers looking like a strong Ewing Theory candidate.
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Taylor Hendricks super solid pick for Utah. Hendricks/Lauri/Kessler could be an elite frontcourt.
Just need a playmaker now. And if somebody like Luka demands a trade in next year or two, Utah has more than enough picks to offer.
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Jokic playoff series:
2-1 as fave. Only loss as -135 to Portland in 7 w/ Denver scoring more total points.
2-3 as dog. Including beating PG + Kawhi as +900
Vegas odds expected him to net 3.38 series wins and he has 4.
Narrative that he is a playoff underachiever is ridiculous
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Pelicans and Grizzlies really have a monopoly on all of the good moves this offseason while every other team is randomly mashing buttons
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Would it really be surprising if the Lakers lose in round 1 or 2 of the playoffs, then AD looks and sees
—36 year old LeBron
—Nobody else decent
—Incompetent FO
—No draft picks ever again
And decides to leave? If winning is truly his priority it makes no sense to commit to LA
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Nets are in a great position to have a truckload of future unprotected Phoenix picks. They crushed that KD trade so hard.
Suns have a short window to be decent and then they are in the gutter for a decade.
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I have a new favorite team, and it is the Grizzlies
They have been making some sharp moves recently, and they have a couple of genuine stud prospects to build around.
I would expect them to be a contender for most of the 2020's
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Brandon Miller with 26/5/2 with only 1 tov and 72% TS and nobody is even talking about it
It’s crazy how badly everyone wants him to fail
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Dame trying to pretend he has leverage is ridiculous. He has 4 years left on his deal without an NTC.
If there is only one team he wants to play for, maybe he shouldn’t have signed that extension.
As we and Spears, Shams and Amick have repeatedly reported, it's only Miami for Dame. Period. No thought to expanding list. Portland at some point will need to accept or make a big mess with best player in franchise history
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If you are not sure who is better between Cade Cunningham and Jalen Suggs:
Consider that Jalen Suggs is a top 3 player on a 14-5 team, whereas Cade is not a top 3 player on a 2-17 team.
Suggs is better and it's not particularly close.
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OKC needs to trade Giddey for a big. He just doesn’t offer enough outside of passing, and isn’t a great fit in an offense that already has Shai
Would be worth including low end picks to swap him for Nic Claxton. Let Chet slide to 4 and OKC will cook
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@Fiizop
Dick’s NBA stats were bad but being this bad in the g league is tragic
He may be in a fatal intersection of non athlete who can’t dribble
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Knox and Shai are outperforming their college selves more than any other rookies this summer.
This is why it's generally a good idea to draft Kentucky prospects. John Calipari is an expert at attracting the best talent and making it look ordinary.
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Jalen Duren is:
—1.5 months older than Wemby
—2.5 months older than Scoot
—10 months younger than Thompsons
—1 year younger than Brandon Miller
Looking like a future MVP candidate to start the season. Dwight Howard comp is real.
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Colin Castleton 4 SL games:
25.6 mins, 15.8 pts, 8.3 rebs, 4.3 ast, 2.3 tov, 1.5 blk, 73.8% TS
Ridiculous efficiency for a mobile big who can pass. Lakers may have found another gem in UDFA.
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There’s a ton of variance in 3 games of shooting, but it’s plain to see that Trae Young is attempting very low quality shots that are missing badly
It’s a steep learning curve for little PGs. Curry, Nash, and Stockton figured it out, but most little guys don’t
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Imagine thinking Cade Cunningham is a better prospect than Franz Wagner
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Jett Howard had 12 steals as an NCAA freshman
He has 3 steals in his first two minutes of summer league
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Kobe was 2 full years younger and the average ORtg was 102 then vs 112 now. Then average pace was 89 then vs 100 now
People need to stop making these cross era comps that ignore age. Current NBA is much more offense friendly which inflates current player numbers
Left is Kobe in his third season. Right is Cam Thomas in his third season.
19.9 PPG 28.7 PPG
45.6 FG% 48.3 FG%
26.7 3P% 33.3 3P%
83.9 FT% 84.4 FT%
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People are focused on the wrong things with Nuggets. They pulled extra draft picks out of thin air and took 3 decent pulls.
Jeff Green is very easy to upgrade. Inevitably a few young guys will be better.
Nuggets had a good offseason. They needed cheap young guys and got them.
The Denver Nuggets are not having the greatest summer
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CP3 this series: 25 pts 12.7 asts 0.7 TOVs (!!!) 66.3% TS
Everyone has talked about LeBron unprecedented goodness for his age, but CP is only 6 months younger and the best player on the team with the best record.
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Scoot got repeatedly dusted on D and was inefficient on offense leading to his team being down 33 in 4q against depleted Jazz at home
But then he was able to pad his stats in garbage time, and that’s now the most exciting thing he has done all year
Portland Trail Blazers rookie Scoot Henderson tonight
#RipCity
— 23 points
— 2 rebounds
— 10 assists
— 9/21 FG
— 2/7 3P
— 3/3 FT
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New Orleans has had the most impactful offseason by adding Zion and savagely bullying Hawks + Lakers in trades
But every simple move by the Grizzlies has reeked of razor sharpness. They are vaccuuming up every nickel and penny in sight, and that's going to add up BIG long term
Pelicans and Grizzlies really have a monopoly on all of the good moves this offseason while every other team is randomly mashing buttons
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Paolo Banchero:
—scored 16+ pts in all five of Duke’s tourney games
—had 17 assists vs 10 tovs
—played a huge role in giving Coach K one last final 4 run
—could (and should) go
#1
overall
But didn’t get a single clip in One Shining Moment
The anti-Paolo bias is real
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Scoot may be stronger than Rose and Morant but he is multiple tiers worse as an athlete.
People talk about him like he's a nuclear athlete, but he is more like a B+ athlete who pulls up from mid-range all day because he cannot blow by defenders at will
Scoot is going to be a FORCE right away. He’s bigger/stronger than Rose and Morant. The NBA is simply too spaced out and loosely played in season for someone with this combo of power and strength not to get whatever he wants. Prepare for crazy stat lines.
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Shai Gilgeous Alexander final FIBA stats:
8 games, 32.1 mins, 24.5 pts, 6.4 reb, 6.4 ast, 1.4 (!!!!) TOV, 1.6 stls, 67.5% TS
Creating such high volume + hyperefficient offense with such few turnovers should be impossible.
Hands down best player in the event.
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Warriors are on a 27-4 run since Durant was not called for his 3rd foul on the LeBron dunk
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As if I couldn’t swoon harder for Memphis, they go and nab the best UDFA
Everything they do is dripping with sharpness. They might have best FO in the NBA
Memphis is signing Purdue-Ft. Wayne guard John Konchar to a two-way contract, league sources tell ESPN.
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I jammed every 2018 draft take I have to offer into one mega post:
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Amazing how all of basketball twitter knew Jordan Bell was an elite 2nd round steal while the Bulls had no idea
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Freshman fouls per 40
David Robinson 8.4
Hakeem 6.4
Mutombo 6.4
JJJ 5.9
Embiid 5.8
Shaq 5.4
Imagine not wanting to draft one of these guys because he fouled too much as a teenager
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I can't remember ever thinking a 2nd round pick fit a team as well as Jordan Bell fits the Warriors. What a steal
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Magic took Jett Howard over Gradey Dick to avoid years of Suggs Black Dick jokes. Can't blame them for the decision, really.
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I have been saying for months Zhaire is PERFECT for Philly and they got him and a future Heat pick
What a night for the 76ers
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Zion career points: 448
Zion career rebs: 129
LeBron career points: 34058
LeBron career rebs: 9340
Guess we should all feel silly for hyping up Zion as a megastud am I right
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JJJ's biggest pre-draft critiques were that he's not a scorer and he is TOV prone. Through 3 games on 21.9 usage, he is making 62% 2P and has 4 assists vs 2 turnovers.
Also he just turned 19 a month ago. He might be the best prospect of the past few drafts.
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@SonicArray3
CP3 has a whole career sample of being great. He's getting older but he's not some mystery box.
And his bad TS is just bad 3P variance. If he was 7/19 instead of 1/19 then his TS skyrockets to 60 which is awesome for just 1.2 TOVs per game.
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Lakers could have re-signed Randle and traded Ingram/Kuzma/picks for Kawhi to compete with Golden State for the title, but instead they splurged on KCP, Rondo, and Lance and will compete for LeBron's first ever round 1 loss.
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Grizzlies are godmoding. Congrats to Memphis fans on multiple future championships
Oklahoma City has traded the No. 21 pick to Memphis, league source tells ESPN. Memphis is targeting Gonzaga's Brandon Clarke with No. 21.
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Moses Moody has been sneaky good off the bench this year. Also had a nice playoff run last year, collectively on a nice little streak of being a quality role player.
This will be the year that people finally realize he is better than Kuminga.
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DeAndre Hunter has been showing his warts with sorely limited athleticism/creation this tourney
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Trading Luka for Trae is seriously the worst trade in the history of draft night trades
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Feels like Ja Morant is getting woefully underhyped. He was excellent both years at Murray, and he is having a great start to his rookie season.
He is on track to be insanely special. Could be an MVP candidate eventually.
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The 3 point arc is overpowered in the modern NBA
It will never happen, but if 2's and 3's were changed to 3's and 4's it would make the game more balanced and interesting.
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So the Grizz are essentially buying Jackson, Melton, and a pretty good 2nd round pick next year for $5.5M. Nice haul for a reasonable chunk of change. Grizz stay killing it.
Josh Jackson is a free-look for the Grizzlies, but Melton is a prospect that Memphis has long evaluated as a prospect with some staying power. Suns future second-round picks typically convey in the low-to-mid 30's. Suns save $5.5M on Korver buyout vs. Jackson salary.
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Bold of Mark Jackson to say Vogel’s job wasn’t difficult bc of talent when he lost in round 1 with the Warriors the year before they become a dominant dynasty
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Maxey looks like he progressed from undersized SG to do it all PG this year. Creating efficient offense with microscopic turnover rates
He has upside to be Dame 2.0
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Luka 35.1% usg, 123 ORtg, best team offense in NBA
Trae 33.8% usg, 108 ORtg, 28th best team offense
Also Luka is drastically better on defense
And the only compensation the Hawks got was Cam Reddish. This was the worst trade in NBA draft history
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Evan Mobley is a better prospect than Cade Cunningham and it is painfully obvious
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Interesting that everyone is giddy to slander 37 y/o injured CP3 while glazing over that 24/25 y/o prime Devin Booker has been a merely average playoff player.
Only 16.6 PER 0.3 BPM over 32 games these past two playoffs.
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Klay is cooked. May not even be better than rookie Podz
If benching him is too embarrassing, they need to trade him. Can’t get far playing him 29 mins/gm
CP/Steph/Wiggins/Dray/Looney with GP2/Podz/Moody/Saric rotation could do well
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Scoot 3 games vs NBA teams:
31.3 mins, 15.7 pts, 1.7 rebs, 5.7 ast, 4.7 tovs, 50.6% TS, 4.7 fouls
This is who he was for GLI. Inefficient, sloppy with tovs, and lackadaisical foulbox on D
It’s adorable he is making top 100 lists for next year but he’s going to be a bad rookie
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Villanova made 10 threes before Kansas attempted one. I’ll let you guess which team has the better coach.
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@chadfordinsider
That’s such a rich price to pay for a 24 year old shooting guard with limited shot creation.
If 19 + 21 isn’t enough for Duarte, the real winner is the Knicks. Better guys will be available at those slots
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Comparing the AD package to Kawhi is hilarious
Kawhi: overpaid DeRozan, Poeltl, and a top 20 protected pick (
#29
this year)
AD: 3 prospects of roughly similar value to Poeltl, and 5 picks/swaps each worth WAY more than Raptors' pick.
Lakers legit paid at least 5x as much
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It makes sense that Miami wants Jaime Jaquez because he had near identical college stats to Jimmy Butler. Perfect fit for Heat culture.
Sources: Miami is selecting Jaime Jaquez Jr. at No. 18.
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Pop is 151-122 against the spread in the playoffs for his career. He has been very amazing in the playoffs.
It's only natural to get upset a number of times in 21 playoffs when the Spurs were normally favored and the West was always stacked.
Spurs have been upset far more than they've done the upsetting in the playoffs. Lost as favorites in 2001, 2004, 2006, 2011, 2012, 2015 (when he benched Kawhi in the 3rd Q of Game 7 for giving up a backdoor), 2016. One of greatest coaches ever, but hasn't been amazing in playoffs
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LeBron had an all time great finals performance w/ 28/15/8 as his *worst* game. Who cares if he can't solo beat team USA-- he is the GOAT
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Teams realizing the power of 3 pointers and optimizing spacing is ruining the NBA
Nobody can stop anybody and points are cheap and inflated
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Current Kenpom ranks remaining in the tourney
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This has to be the chalkiest sweet 16 of all time
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DeAndre Hunter 6 pts 3 rebs 1 assist 4 TOV 2/8 FG. It's probably safe to call him a bust.
No big deal though. He only cost 8, 17, 35, and $12.5M of deadweight salary and he fits in great with Atlanta's other prospects that will also disappoint in the future
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@Fiizop
It's been nice that Dillon stopped ball hogging so much and made some shots, but he's been more of a quality role player. Sengun playing like a legit star.
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Jrue ducking Suggs. Doesn't want the world to see that Suggs has surpassed him as best defensive guard in the NBA.
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In a 2021 redraft, there is a clear cut top 4 of Mobley, Barnes, Franz, and Sengun in any order
#5
is where it gets open to discussion. But as of right now, it’s looking like the correct choice would be Jalen Suggs
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Crazy with all of these injuries the only contender with no major injuries was Philly who managed to lose in round 2 anyway
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Records of teams that traded all future picks unprotected to win now with old rosters:
Milwaukee 5-4
Phoenix 4-5
Clippers 3-6
LAC doesn’t have own pick for next 6 drafts. PHX and MIL sacrificed next 7 own firsts
Bold strategy, lets see if it pays off for them
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Ja Morant deserves more hype. He has an outlier intersection of vision and athleticism, which are by far the two most important qualities for PGs. His weakness is that he only made 81% FT 37% 3P at age 19.
He's like a weird hybrid of Nash + RWB. His upside is really elite.
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Ant getting credit for playing well for USA. But compare his numbers to leading scorers for other top teams, and he is way behind Bogdan + Shai and no better than Schroder.
He scored the most for team USA, but took a number of bad shots and was not that efficient.
Per 60 poss:
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Even forgetting contracts, there's a good case that Okogie, Metu, Bates-Diop, Eubanks, Lee, and Yuta > Rui, Vincent, Prince, and Reddish.
Lakers paid up for a bunch of replacement players who aren't as good as the guys the Suns got for free.
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I am just gonna say it. Grizzlies have the best FO in the NBA. Every move they have made this offseason has been perfect
Golden State is trading Andre Iguodala to the Memphis Grizzlies, league source tells ESPN. Warriors are sending a 2024 protected first-round pick in the 2024 (protected 1-4), 2025 (protected 1) and 2026 unprotected.
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Giannis ducking Scottie Barnes. Doesn't want the world to see that Scottie has surpassed him.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (injury management) ruled out Wednesday.
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3 games into season, best rookie in BPM and WS/48 has been Walker Kessler. Posting Gobert-ish #'s off the bench in 21.3 mins/g
Per 100 poss:
Rudy career: 20.9 pts 19.6 rebs 2.2 ast 2.8 tov 3.7 blks 67% TS
Kessler first 3 games: 18.7 pts 18 rebs 3.7 ast 1.5 tov 4.5 blk 66% TS
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A neat part of the draft is that we get to learn which new FO’s are good and which ones are bad. This year
Good: Grizzlies, Pelicans
Bad: Hawks, Sixers, Cavs
Somehow worse than already perceived: Lakers, Suns
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Finally threw up a final big board:
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Bennedict Mathurin SL so far:
22.3 mins 19.7 pts 59.8% TS 1.3 ast 0.7 tovs (!!!)
He is scoring almost a point a minute with elite efficiency. The low turnovers are esp impressive in a format where tovs are abundant.
If he was playing more minutes he’d be frontrunner for MVP
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