The Shipper
@ShipTheJustice
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Following
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Statuses
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weathering a flurry so i can land a counterpunch rt = moron | DMs open
Napier City, New Zealand
Joined June 2019
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Pinned Tweet
lowe post guest rankings this calendar year:
1a) kevvy pelton
——
2a) nekias duncan
2b) jon givony
——
3a) tim mcmahon
3b) bill simmons
3c) adam mares
3d) baxter holmes
——
4a) jeff van gundy
4b) tim bontemps
4c) brian windhorst
——
5a) jon krawczynski
5b) howie beck
….
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@AbnormallyDist
i come home from my regional manager job at enterprise rent a car and plug pinnacles odds into the kelly criterion calculator to tell me the optimal stake on fanduel sportsbook super boost of the day. im in for 3 units on this one and am up 77 units this year despite a tough july
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@theStevenRuiz
and you think purdy sees single high way more than tua simply because cmc rush threat > fins run game and not because tua has the most unique weapon in the game ??
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SIDES AND TOTALS. MINUS ONE TEN. LAW AND ORDER
Offering betting on props for non star players will not only ruin gambling, but the sports themselves. Without integrity of competition, you have WWE.
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learning a lot today
books cant catch you if you bet 'live ev' but they will catch you if you live arb
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@snydzy
@logan_matthews9
@RufusPeabody
@OlingerAndrew
@TimeandC
@chattim3
the best thing about twitter dot com is you often have no idea who it is you're actually tweating at lol
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1. line shop
2. never have an opinion
3. bet stale prices
4. complain about being limited
5. deify circa sports
6. watch other men sleep with your wife
saved you a click
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@patrickkeogan
@FDSportsbook
@JeffreyBenson12
@DavidPurdum
@ActionNetworkHQ
@bostonred88
you going to go ahead and show the earlier bet youd already placed on that side
@patrickkeogan
??
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fuck yea
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@joeyisaks
I bet it. It hit. And then tweeted.
You know in-gm algos were built for soccer - not hockey. They aren’t going to change it now or for me. It was 2-1 w 12 to play. That wasn’t a fluke … it happens a lot.
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welcome everyone… to beee bettuh bettuhhs… im da host… spanky. thanks for listening.
my guest this week is a legend of the game. he weighs 365lbs and did six years in jail.
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@a_kane47
@CircaSports
@sporttrade_app
lock up 5.3k to win 54 bucks 3 months from now yessir this is what i have been screaming out for
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the funniest thing about this shit is the price point
i want to make people better sports bettors but no way am i gonna do it for free my info is clearly too valuable for that. i will charge [checks notes] $97/mo for information that has made me > $1mm lifetime. yep perfect
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@BenjaminSolak
i watched the whole thing earlier. it is good and the conclusions drawn make some sense. imo you underrate the value of flying through progressions quickly and not forcing the ball. the pass is easy yes but he also would have made seattle pay for any mistake they made elsewhere.
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this was legitimately the dumbest pod i have listened to since the cade cole 90 degrees episode where the hosts/guests werent doing it as a meme (eg sharky or gruden on circles off)
He joins
@capjack2000
and
@TVatWork
to talk about how he prepares to bet the sports that roll around every four years.
Get ready to fire on badminton, fencing, water polo and ... politics.
🍎
🟢
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i havent seen this mentioned anywhere but this is probably the greatest in-rhythm save of a commentary slip up ever ?? tirico accidentally refers to garrett as cris collinsworth and pivots without missing a beat
"Cris Collinsworth enjoying the rest of the Thanksgiving weekend with his family."- Mike Tirico
Jason Garrett is filling in for Collinsworth in the SNF booth. 🏈📺🎙️
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this stuff is always hilarious to me where the communications team is promoting a massive rort that the trading team knows is a massive rort.
sure it prob doesnt affect bettor behaviour that much moving forward but it is effectively dunking on how atrocious the prices are/were
$71 INTO OVER $10K 🤯
Donte DiVincenzo & Tyrese Haliburton made this bettor some BREAD tonight 💰
(via
@spartans0454
)
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@UsherNBA
a scorching 51% true shooting and 5.3 tov/game and an all-time bad +/-
he is 12.5% worse than league average from 2 which is the worst of all time by a mile of any high minute player. arguably had the most harmful season of all time
a couple ‘that boy nice’ moments tho for sure
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@KirkEvans0
you win money by predicting the future more accurately than the majority of people how can you do that and not have a big ego
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trent (+ bookit) would be my fav as the single individual who causes the most gambling harm of anyone who isnt directly employed by a book.
does he lie about his record ?? no. but his crew do + they make losing at sports betting appear glamorous. it is truly incredible marketing
@FezzikSports
@JeffreyBenson12
@haralabob
@robpizzola
@capjack2000
@MMpact
Pizzola:
@BookitWithTrent
is a good example of a content creator who doesn’t misrepresent himself. He doesn’t expect to win and doesn’t pass himself off as an expert. That’s rare. Most companies turned regular people and marketed them as betting experts
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youre not gonna believe this but the guy who was sick at basketball in france is indeed sick at basketball in the usa
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this is the actual type of thing you should get mad at gaming commissions about not ruling in favour of the consumer on. not when you bet nikola jokic o7.5 points for the full game or a +700 which was clearly intended to be -700
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thank god we got these devigged and could bet quarter kelly
ESPNBET
Seeing Green +110
+6.6%, -103 (50.7%) 1.49u,
NFL Super Boost +140
+8.6%, 121 (45.2%) 1.54u
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if youre wondering why books wont give winning players a ‘reasonable’ limit this is why. 0.01 stake factors are the only way to deal with oddsjam grinders
Another huge day of live EV betting using all limited accounts!
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josh yong came 11th in the individual 100 breast, swam the 3rd fastest 100 breast split in the mixed medley relay and still swam a time (relay start-adjusted) that would have won the 100 breast final you cannot convince me that these are the same pool conditions as earlier
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@dlGgSyeTaGaiN
@lasvegascris
bawling my eyes out sobbing about how bad my life sucks as i rt the seventh fats tweet at anita marks asking her for a glimpse at her tee shirt collection
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@sprotzbettor
@RufusPeabody
@chattim3
@GerryAttric2
@ProfessorShine
@SharpClarkeNFL
@AdamBjorn2
@MMpact
bad pricing sans arb software = the people who know about these things win but it is low on the priority list, dont bother removing.
bad pricing that shows on arb software = flood of $ to the point where you have to turn it off and/or fix it because there is so much of this shit
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@rgarcia57
@PlusEVAnalytics
cant extend $2k in credit to a guaranteed losing player who is likely a millionaire + has a very public persona and therefore stands to lose a lot if he stiffs
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@NBABlackburn
i am sure that if you havent come up with a counter then there is no way an entire nba organisation can possibly come up with a counter
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for those who wonder why fd trading is >>>> every other book in america
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@adamlevitan
plenty of holes in b adam.
they didnt market it at all. no push notifications, no leveraging of tv assets, not even a single tweet about it iirc.
you dont spend what likely amounts to seven figures in ev to gain share without pushing the shit out of it on the marketing side
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@bjpf_
@criggsNBA
you would rather be wrong than heap pressure on someone who will never know who you are or hear what you have to say that is very noble
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@RetardedGambler
he doesnt really exhibit any signs of addiction. betting markets with a long time to maturity (futures) + stopping betting point spreads when he understood he wasnt winning
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@mcmungawar
as always, the answer is akin to the famous quote “the efficient market hypothesis is not true, but for you it probably is true”
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- use diff labeled bets to fabricate hot streaks✅
- paid by a book to promote bets✅
- use damaging language to encourage ppl to bet more/irresponsibly✅
- attend sporting events/party tons✅
- push high value bet mix✅
idgaf but pointing to trent as good for industry is insane
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like ‘never bet parlays’ the idea that you should never bother with bet splits can fall over at times. knowing that there was tons of mug money on francis ngannou yesterday — paired with other info — made anthony joshua a very good bet
@Gingfacekillah
@capjack2000
@robpizzola
Pinnacle shows these on their site for certain leagues. When couple with historical odds movement they add value. Strong correlation between bet size and sharpness even within recreational books.
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my guess here is that comms doesnt know that this is a huge hole in fd pricing, they just promote the big winning sgps/longshots and dont consult with trading on what goes out.
most of the time this isnt an issue at all but to those in the know it makes them look really stupid
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ingles bout to go into sole possession of 8th what a king
Most 8+ BPM games this season
1-Nikola Jokic (41)
2-Giannis Antetokounmpo (27)
3-Stephen Curry (25)
4-Kawhi Leonard (23)
5-LeBron James & Nikola Vucevic (22)
7-Jimmy Butler & Luka Doncic (21)
9-Joe Ingles & Damian Lillard (20)
11-Joel Embiid (19)
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feeling sad that wemby playing on perimeter and subsequent deflated defensive rebounding rates means his dreb*ast interaction variable is going to be suppressed and therefore his statistical prior in rapm-based metrics is going to underrate his impact :(
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very grateful for the goat
@MASSIVE_ARBER
appearing on
@BradAllenNFL
excellent industry-focused pod the episode before me to drum up interest. hoping to ride trench’s coattails to some residual interest similar to whatever is on tv directly post-superbowl
@BradAllenNFL
@ShipTheJustice
enjoyed the pod. Surely the clamour to have both of us on now will be deafening.
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all i want for christmas is some negative synthetic holds and
@CircaSports
to come to my jurisdiction !!
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@BanfieldGroup
laying to lose not a cent more than 27k. absolutely disgusting. joke of a book
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@RufusPeabody
how do you think the reaction would be if there wasnt a fervent defence of such a ridiculous model output ?? model output is whatever, doubling down and refusing to believe it is infallible is the issue
look at
@kmedved
reaction to his bucks projection vs espn dorks to cheetahs
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@theStevenRuiz
@PFF_Moo
could reply with a statistical comp of mahomes in 18 and purdy in 23 would that be correct ??
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victor wembanyama has now played 235 minutes without zach collins or charles bassey on the court (ie when geriatric greg has let the 7’5 bloke stand next to the rim) and is averaging 28 points 15 rebounds and 5 blocks per 36 minutes is that good
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@Hitman428
- circa sports not being available in my jurisidiction
- high theoretical hold
- my wife sleeping with other men
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'18 cavs
metcalf = bron
bud = kevvy love
walls = jr smith
stone = george hill
hower = larry nance jr
moss = tristan thompson
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@coversvanzack
@DeanO_Lytics
@v1n5anity15
it actually does mr coversvanzack. it just should not at all be surprising or interesting to someone who has spent forever in basketball analytics
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@sprotzbettor
after i get home from my regional manager shift at enterprise rent a car I can plug in the yes/no prices at circa and let you know what the fair value is and what quarter kelly suggests
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@brianbolek
@chattim3
what proportion of zigzag does rick assign to each of these potential explanations
- effort
- counter to schematic quirk (eg minnesota ball pressure)
- change in refereeing points of emphasis (eg specific style of illegal screen)
- other
- not real / effect overrated by market
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@EVsportsBetting
@JeffreyBenson12
good luck betting these games in-play at circa sports mr american flag man
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@sprotzbettor
@JBC69
to win 30k is simply a disgusting limit i bet you they dont even stand up for the king soopers hero of the game !!
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@FrankFrijoles
@joebrennanjr
@MLB
@primesportsbook
@T20WorldCup
in-game hockey uses soccer models and in-game baseball uses cricket models it all makes sense now
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@nikolaesthetic
he is -3500 in the betting market for a reason n i k o l a e s t h e t i c this isnt bontemps having access to some secret information
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… goosebumps !!
“I’ll find 15 ways in and I’ll hit you upside down and your not even going to know what’s happening. And if you want me to play that game, I’ll do it too. I don’t wanna play that game and you don’t want me to play that game.”
@spanky
Incredible! Fired up!
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@CirclesOffHQ
@Pinnacle
@robpizzola
@JoeyKnish22
knish cooked. gonna have to begrudgingly finally give him the follow. sucks :(
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@thebeaglebets
@kjhogo
i pray at teh altar of emh but know when it is wrong you worship it so hard that it is cucking your wife in front of your face and you just sit there and let it happen “you are right mr market i cant explain teh price but please keep fucking my wife”
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