Joe
@JoeA_NFL
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Film Guy. Keeper of the Real. One day, I want to be an NFL exec. I use my evals to bet on football games, documented on @pbfg_pod . +11.46% ROI 2023.
Chicago
Joined February 2022
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The 2024 edition of my Golden Rule. I don't talk about players I haven't extensively scouted. Agree or disagree, I show my work. Here's my thread on the 2024 draft class of QBs.
The 2023 edition of my Golden Rule.
I don't talk about players I haven't extensively scouted.
If I have a strong opinion one way or another, I guarantee it's backed by significant film study.
Here's the 2022 season's edition of my QB Scouting Reports series
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This is some REAL bad boardwork by Jayden Daniels. Forgot the play, missed the read, clearly overwhelmed...
Awful pro day, awful interviews, exceedingly old.
And it all showed up on tape! How did this guy get drafted so high!?
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Jayden Daniels with some of the worst pro day footage I've ever seen
I am never impressed by pro days, but I sure can be turned-off by them, and this is bad...
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Caleb Williams is awesome. He's probably going to get one of the highest grades I've ever given a prospect.
But it's hard to grade plays like this, because this just isn't NFL football. Literally all I can take away from this I'd arm strength.
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Drake Maye casually throwing that ball 65 yards on a dime at his pro day. WR never broke stride.
Typical. The man was accurate on 21 of 26 deep ball attemps in the 11 games I graded this year.
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There's just zero accountability in NFL scouting
Ben Solak has been wrong about almost every QB he's graded, but he is one of the most respected analysts out there because... quirky?
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Brady was better at 43+ than any other QB I've ever seen ever was.
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Tom Brady. Elite downfield accuracy. Elite pocket navigation. elite arm strength.
Greatest player of all time.
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@KurtBenkert
I agree
That's why I break Arm Talent down into 3 categories in my evaluations. Range, Velocity, and release.
Maye is really special in all 3.
Easy range, easy velocity, great touch, and a great release.
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I finished grading every snap of Will Levis' season today. 9 Games, 274 dropbacks.
The kid was GOOD. Incredible deep ball & really accurate. Most incompletions were late decisions or drops, but Levis is on-target a TON.
He'll explode this yr, with a decent OL & scheme!
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Tom Brady. 60 yard bomb off a 5 step drop. No crow hop. Perfectly in-rhythm.
Rare arm strength.
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This is arguably the worst sack I've ever seen anyone take. Justin Fields cannot play QB in the NFL.
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Tom Brady threw dimes to dudes who didn't even play WR
Did the most for years despite absolutely terrible support
Tweens on here claim he had a bad deep ball tho
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Matt Stafford is a top 3 QB in the NFL right now, and no one talks about it
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Baker Mayfield is a really, really accurate QB. The Buccaneers drop a lot of passes.
I counted 6 clear ones vs the Eagles.
2 by Evans, 2 by Otten, 2 by RBs.
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If Baker Mayfield makes this throw, twitter collectively dunks on him for short-arming a ball into double coverage.
But it's mahomes, so we invent ways that it might actually, secretly, be a good play.
Gipson was turning inside, away from the target area of the pass with his back turned so Mahomes let it rip to a great location.
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@NFLRookieWatxh
In fairness to Allen, the drill is in its 2nd year.
Before 2022, they just measured QBs throwing passes in the drills. Now, they have a specific drill where QBs throw a ball as hard as they can at a large, stationary target.
It isn't a fair comparison.
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The Commanders would be the worst team in the NFL if not for Sam Howell.
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Sometimes, great draft picks don't affect a team for a few years.
These 4 teams improved RIGHT NOW more than anyone else:
1. Patriots (+2.7 points)
2. Chargers (+2.6)
3. Rams (+1.4)
4. Bears (+1.2)
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What a spoiled brat
Mahomes' ability to handle adversity is so poor.
For the first year ever, his OL and WRs aren't both stellar, and he melts down both on and off the field.
Processing goes to hell & throws fits like this?
I think we've already seen the pinnacle of his career.
Patrick Mahomes was still upset about the offside call meeting with Josh Allen after the game.
#Billsmafia
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Mike Vrabel gets the ball at midfield, down 4.
3 min left.
3 straight runs.
4th and 4, they run a deep bomb.
Just incredibly bad coaching. This is why the titans will never go anywhere.
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Here's what A+ zip and A+ accuracy looks like.
25 yards, but got there quicker than more curls.
It's really important to occasionally watch elite NFL QB play while evaluating college prospects. It can be easy to give propsects A+ grades, otherwise.
Peak Tom Brady. Unstoppable.
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@ColinFeller
By this logic, you can't critique a chef, and bill belichick sucks as an evaluator. Same with Bill Walsh & Mike Leach.
Elway would be a genius GM, if your logic held up.
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My pre-draft QB rankings in 2023:
1. Levis
2. Young
2. Stroud
4. Richardson
My rankings of those 4 QBs now, after grading their rookie seasons:
1. Levis
2. Stroud
3. Richardson
4. Young
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Jayden Daniels is officially a Washington Commander
You don't sign a running backup QB & trade away Drake Maye's best friend if he's the guy you intend upon drafting.
Another QB trade: Commanders are sending last year’s starter Sam Howell to the Seahawks in a pick swap, per sources.
Trade:
🏈Seahawks receive Howell, a fourth-round pick (No. 102), a sixth (No. 179).
🏈Commanders receive a third (No. 78) and a fifth (No. 152).
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No QB since 2000 has come very close to Brady
The closest was Peyton Manning, and Brady demonstrated his supremacy over Manning many, many, many times.
There is a full tier gap between Brady and the best QBs of today.
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"Drake Maye isn't accurate - why else would his completion percentage be so low!?"
Well, if you turn on the games...
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I made a video of all 26 deep balls I've seen Drake Maye attempt. He was accurate on 21 of them. That's unreal.
It's too long to fit in one twitter video. I sped it up to double speed so it'd fit. Throttle it down to half speed for your viewing comfort.
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Joe Burrow doesn't even begin to compare to Justin Herbert. Its not close.
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Ben Solak is almost never correct on QB evaluations, and here he basically explains why
Please bookmark this tweet and flame me in the future
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Drake Maye is going to go 2nd overall because he's the most accurate downfield-passer in the draft. Yes, he misses some gimmes. So does Jayden Daniels.
Drake makes up for those mistakes by creating chunk plays. Jayden relies on his teammates to make those big plays.
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Trevor Lawrence is unlucky
Trevor Lawrence is also overrated
He's not a good QB, no matter how badly the world wants him to be.
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Will Levis has produced solid stats despite absolutely terrible supporting casts for years
In 2024, he actually has some help 📈
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@QuincyAvery
Well, he didn't answer the question at all, so he clearly didn't answer properly.
He has to read what the FS does. If he carries with the slot fade, you hit the backside dig. If he shades to the dig, you hit the fade. Personally, I'd look the S to the fade & hit the dig.
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This is not my official legal opinion as a licensed attorney, but...
Yeah, he did it. Wow.
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@PriscoCBS
If Denver had a QB as good as Geno Smith, those WRs would look a LOT better than they do now 🤷♂️
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@bruchhaussports
@ameliaprobst
I'm gonna ignore your sneaking Burrow in there and just say that I'm not particularly impressed by the guy taking a stroll to the left after finishing his morning coffee.
Caleb's greatness will be on display against stiffer competition, and that's OK.
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Not shocked this guy missed all over the yard today in a shirt and shorts, without any defenders.
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How many times do we have to see Trouba intentionally elbow a guy in the face before the league holds him accountable?
He should get the Raffi Torres treatment.
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@gmfb
@RealMikeRob
Weird how a guy with no arm strength completed the longest pass ever charted by Next Gen
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I've graded every competitive snap of Sam Howell's season now.
That means I stop watching when games get out of hand, like vs Buffalo or Dallas.
Sam Howell has had some ups and downs like any rookie starter, but he has been really, really good.
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Levis' deep ball is killer. Here are just a few examples. He led the NFL in Big Time Throw rate per PFF, and he had one of the highest Elite throw rates in my grading, as well. Easy, controlled arm talent.
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@jasonhatch20
@PaulCharchian
"The WR was wide open after the man guarding him already began running towards the already-airborn ball!"
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JJ McCarthy has some of the most insane throws I've seen. He's so talented. I just don't see them often enough. Look at the elite zip, velocity, and placement of this deep ball, with his lightning release.
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@NFL_DovKleiman
Because Simms knows ball. No one can argue that Hurts is a top 10 passer, even if they think his legs make him a top 10 QB.
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Will Levis is a stud on intermediate throws. His combination of ball placement and incredible arm talent make him a menace attacking zones in the mid-range.
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I've graded 44 games and about 1500 snaps of the 2024 Draft QB class
Drake Maye is not only the most accurate, but the most explosive, despite the highest rate of downfield throws. He's better on "all-madden" difficulty than these other guys are on "pro"
QB1
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Justin Herbert is the best processor in the NFL, has probably the 2nd strongest arm, runs (albeit rarely) as fast as most TEs, and is 6'6.
He's also an amazing pocket-maneuver-er.
That's why he's the best QB in the NFL.
It’s pretty unique when someone with elite physical talent like Herbert can do all the little things required to execute efficiently in the NFL. He’s always a step ahead of the defense pre- and post-snap because of how he uses context clues to streamline the process.
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Tom Brady's deep ball was all-time great stuff, man.
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8 drops and Chris Godwin losing a perfect hail Mary in the lights
Epitomizes Baker Mayfield's career tbh
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I've gotten a lot of new followers from Titans nation lately, so it feels like a decent time to promote my video analyzing every aspect of Levis' game as a prospect last year, before the draft. I think it's aging nicely, personally.
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TEN's OL was one of, if not THE, worst in '23. Levis consistently extended plays that were doomed before they started. Pressure led to some of his reckless decisions.
I think that his pocket IQ & decisions are underrated bc of how screwed he was.
Bill Callahan should fix that.
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Hard Knocks has basically laid bare what I've said for years:
NFL front offices are full of idiots and casual fans who are absolutely no better at evaluating than your average fan, & would be gym teachers without the NFL.
I'm certain that many of us would be better GMs.
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"Justin Herbert has a ton of talent around him"
Really? Where?
His best weapon is a WR3 in Keenan Allen.
That's the only starting caliber receiver he has.
I really can't stand football media
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It's almost like Maye isn't developing at a ridiculous and exponential rate, but simply *was always excellent* and just needed to adjust to his new teammates and practices for [checks watch] a week 🫠
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@KyleSloter
You go ahead and assume Daniels knows what to do. It's pretty clear from the context of the video that he is confused & uncomfortable.
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I told everyone that Justin Fields couldn't process quickly enough 4 years ago, when he was at OSU, and no one listened 🤷♂️
Now it's happening all over again with Jayden Daniels
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Wow -
@Nate_Tice
CRUSHED his Drake Maye evaluation.
So much of the public Drake Maye eval is fake
He's super accurate. He has solid mechanics. He's an awesome processor.
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@throwthedamball
It's not perfect, but this chart does a PRETTY good job of showing which QBs are getting helped out by scheme
The green QBs are being dramatically assisted by scheme
The yellow ones are being moderately assisted
The red one is getting truly hung out to dry
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@Nickymodoe
I actually just made a video about how JJ is probably Zach Wilson
I think Bo Nix is an unexciting version of Jalen Hurts
Thanks for the slander, though.
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I'll admit when I'm wrong - the Chargers have had a solid draft
They're still woeful at wr in general, but adding an elite OT and a really good WR plus a starting LB through 3 rounds is very good
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Just a little reminder that Tom Brady had A+ velocity on his throws and an insanely quick release.
Notions that he lacked arm talent are ignorant.
2013 Week 1 Despite groin injury Amendola finishes with 10 receptions 104 yards in clutch Patriots debut. Here are all 10 receptions:
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Drake Maye just threw arguably the best pass I've ever seen a college QB throw.
At *least* the best since Darnold's TD in the rose bowl vs Penn State.
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Every "Big Time Throw" James believes Levis threw in 2023.
Not EXACTLY the same as OFF's BTTs, or my Elite category (I'm pickier) but pretty solid.
Levis led the NFL in big time throw rate per PFF.
Every Big-Time Throw from Will Levis in 2023 (17/5.82%)
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Gentle reminder that Patrick Mahomes is really good, but he's not some all-time great QB, tiers away from the pack.
He's not much better than Allen, and he's arguably worse than Herbert.
He has just had the best OL, receivers, and coaching of the 3 by extremely wide margins.
Coulda been one of the greatest flubs of all-time but no one remembers it cuz that
#58
guy just HAD to push Pat after he stepped out of bounds
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@gmfb
@RealMikeRob
You could make shit up without ever having watched football like
@RealMikeRob
did, or you could study every snap and see what's actually happening on film.
Notice he focuses on the ARM STRENGTH of one of the strongest arms in the NFL... smells fishy.
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Tom Brady had easy accuracy 50 yards downfield in 2001, but people that don't watch football still claim that he lacked physical tools because... he had a frumpy combine photo?
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Levis had a lot of balls dropped at Kentucky. That didn't go away in his first year in the NFL. Hopefully, Tyler Boyd and Calvin Ridley fix that.
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Adam Peters: worst GM in the NFL
Had the best HC candidate in years on the hook & scared him off
Had the best Q prospect in the NFL on the board and took a bust who's several years older
Chased names instead of quality in free agency
Commanders will pick top 5 in 365 days
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@andystrickland
Don't think anyone has been less correct on this website at any point in time.
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Passing on Drake Maye for Caleb Williams is a little silly, but not the end of the world.
Passing on Drake Maye for Jayden Daniels is a career ending mistake that will set a franchise back 5 years. Which will be when Maye is 26 and Daniels is 29, btw.
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Haven't seen any of Drake Maye's 2024 pro day yet, but remember when the 19 yr old version casually threw the ball 65 yards downfield last year?
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Jayden Daniels' greatest strength as a passer is his deep ball... and it isn't even good
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@itsboutabemovie
@CoachDanCasey
That was the roughing the passer the refs ignored on the 3rd down that hurt Stafford, actually.
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In 2 months Drake Maye has been considered a:
- weak-armed game manager (Mac Jones)
- monster arm with no accuracy (Kyle Boller)
- mid-armed stat-padder (Bortles)
- good athlete with terrible accuracy & a slow release (Mason Rudolph)
They're just trying tropes until one fits 🤣
The Drake Maye slander is comical because we have moved from, "He's just tall Mac Jones!" (Meaning weak arm, but accurate) to "He's just inaccurate Justin Herbert!" in a span of a week.
People love having opinions, but hate earning them by actually researching.
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@holdthattigah
If being a good NFL QB had anything to do with evaluating QBs, John Elway wouldn't have drafted Paxton Lynch & Brock Osweiler
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@FightOnRusty
@NFL_DovKleiman
Have you heard of Josh Rosen? Jay Cutler? Johnny Manziel? Zach Wilson? All had their leadership questioned.
Marcus Mariota had his leadership questioned.
Not sure how this can be about race.
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My preliminary grade on Drake Maye is the highest QB grade I've ever given, at a 3.5.
I haven't charted much yet, but if he continues developing he will be the best QB in the league.
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@CommiesSean
"NFL" is in my handle because I primarily talk about the NFL
Does that make sense?
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Us watching the Steelers sign Russell Wilson on the eve of free agency
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Remember when PFF said Will Levis struggles to make "big time throws", then he led the NFL in Big Time Throw rate as a rookie?
Yikes
The biggest knock against Will Levis from PFF is that he only had 7 Big Time Throws in 2022. I only watched 5 of his 11 games this year & found about 10.
Thread of Will Levis throws that PFF evidently does not think were "big time"
Here's the first one. 60 yard throw, 50 yard TD.
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This take translates to: "I like consuming draft media but I don't like watching college film"
If you draft Jayden Daniels I’d expect him to play day 1.
If you draft Drake Maye he would really benefit from a red shirt year.
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