SharpClarke 🔪
@SharpClarkeNFL
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NFL originator, not yet in my prime. Tao te cha-ching. Today I am not who I was yesterday.
The Bandaloop Caves
Joined December 2020
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Like any dedicated gambler
Calvin Ridley "more motivated than ever" at Jaguars camp: "Ready to get back whatever I lost"
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Why Trevor Lawrence's ascension in year 2 should surprise no-one: a Thread about a future superstar and the flaws of purely statistical-based analysis:
or, Why I can't get enough money down on the Jags.
(note: I've watched every snap, and his bad plays several times)
[1/11]
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The upside case for Justin Fields: a thread on why I can’t join the masses fading the Bears after watching every snap of his rookie season.
In short, he doesn’t need a strong supporting cast if the coaches play it right.
Here’s why:
[1/16]
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My thoughts on the Super Bowl, including 3 angles that favor Kansas City and 1 angle that favors Philadelphia.
Ultimately, I don't think the market is correctly pricing this game and I think the Chiefs should be favored. Final score prediction at the end.
A thread:
[1/x]
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Lots of talk about "public" bet %, "trap" lines, "Vegas knows," etc.
I have some thoughts on this. Smart bettors/bookies - correct me if I'm wrong.
Thread time:
[1/14]
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I will never handicap a week of NFL better for the rest of my life.
6 spread bets, all on underdogs. All win outright.
2 moneyline bets, including one I’m calling in the 3Q.
1 alt spread at +285, no sweat.
2 totals, one no sweat and one that barely missed.
+15.53u
Goodnight.
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If you ignore the playoffs, ignore the 5 previous seasons of Mahomes/Reid, judge KC only by regular season results and ignore how much of the outlier-level underperformance in a limited sample size can be attributed to drops (most in the NFL) and low-percentage outcomes that
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Does strength of schedule matter?
The Eagles have dominated a bad schedule this season, but how does that impact the Super Bowl handicap?
My thoughts in a data-based thread:
[1/19]
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Transparency time.
This season has been really, really rough for me.
After Week 10, my posted plays to date are 49-59-2 for -22.66 units on the season.
Privately, it’s slightly worse.
I came into the season with a lot of confidence, based on the robustness of my process, the
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Don't want to see this if you're a 49ers fan.
On 3rd and 2, Aiyuk looks very open to me for an easy 10-15 yard gain.
Lance just ignores it and throws to a very tightly covered Deebo.
You can have all the tools but if you can't throw to the open guy to keep the drive alive...
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Burrow’s career final drive results in 1-score games in playoffs:
LV: FG, punt, FG, punt
TEN: Punt, INT, punt, punt, FG
KC: INT, FG, FG
SB: punt, punt, punt, punt, turnover on downs
BAL: punt, punt, punt
0.75 points per drive
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For those who don’t watch Jags games and wonder why the “film” guys can’t quit Trevor Lawrence… it’s plays like this.
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Full Transparency Time.
Apparently some people think I am a “pro bettor.” I am not.
A pro bettor makes their living from betting. I make my living at a day job and bet on the NFL as a challenge and a hobby.
I am a winning bettor. I started betting seriously in 2020 and have
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Average opponent points per game:
In career wins:
Justin Herbert - 20.9
Lamar Jackson - 15.9
In career losses:
Herbert - 29.8
Jackson - 28.7
Lamar’s record is 47-18.
Herbert’s is 25-25.
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Prediction: KC takes the early lead as Mahomes comes out blazing once again.
PHI has more trouble running the ball than people expect, and Hurts is inconsistent in comeback mode.
Final score: KC 34 - PHI 21.
Going for 2 years in a row predicting the SB exacto!
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Conclusion: I'm all in on Trevor Lawrence and the Jags.
And if you watched all of his film like I did, I think you would be too.
[11/11]
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The Eagles have been endlessly praised for their roster building but not being able to recognize that Hurts was propped up by the best circumstances in the NFL last year against a joke of a schedule and paying him as if he’s an elite QB will probably hurt them for some time.
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Trade Patrick Mahomes for Jalen Hurts and give the teams two full weeks to prepare.
What’s the spread on the Super Bowl?
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The Rams had the biggest gap between pass EPA/play and rush EPA/play this season.
The Bengals had the second biggest gap.
You don’t win in the NFL playoffs by running well.
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Most efficient QBs (EPA/dropback) since 2010:
1. Mahomes (+0.296)
2. Mahomes, only counting games against top defenses (allowing negative EPA on the season) (+0.273)
3. Peyton (+0.219)
4. Brady (+0.214)
5. Brees (+0.209)
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I bet on 33 NFL spreads/moneylines (-120 to +120) this season where the final scoring play in the game changed the outcome of the bet.
I went 4-27-2 on those bets for -43.02 units.
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Some truly cowardly bookmaking by DraftKings on Super Bowl futures.
Current theoretical hold on SB futures by book:
BetMGM: 22.73%
Caesars: 23.31%
Bookmaker: 24.26%
FanDuel: 24.99%
…
DraftKings: 27.11%
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Outside the two big plays to Devonta (which happened, and do count), Jalen Hurts last night:
16/21 for 76 yards, 1 INT, 4 sacks
2.16 yards per pass play
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The “run-heavy” Eagles on their only drive with Hurts called 8 plays:
Pass
Pass
Pass
Pass
Pass
Pass
Pass
Pass
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#1
overall QBs in their rookie season since 2013:
T-Law: 3-14
Burrow: 2-8-1
Murray: 3-7
Mayfield: 6-7
Goff: 0-7
Winston: 6-10
Combined: 20-53-1, pro-rated average of 4.59 wins in 17 games.
The Panthers’ win total is 7.5, +100 to the Under.
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There is so little doubt in my mind that we are watching the best two quarterbacks in the game
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A (long) update on my journey and my thoughts on sharing my bets publicly in the future. In short, I won't be.
Some people don’t understand why anybody would sell picks if they are a winning bettor. I know of many valid reasons, but I can only share my own. Here is my journey,
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My wife’s continued interest in my betting is getting unnerving
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The biggest IF here is whether the coaching staff can coax that kind of impact out of him.
I’m not backing the Bears at current prices.
But I don’t buy the overwhelming consensus that they are lost without a supporting cast.
It may not matter.
[16/16]
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Mahomes is the best quarterback to ever play the game, by a comfortable margin.
His ankle problems have hidden how well he played against Jacksonville (before injury) and Cincy (before tweaking it and losing WRs).
He has MJ-level intangibles.
[12/x]
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We do this whole “Chiefs aren’t as good this year” thing every year
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DK can’t price a market like full game team total on the day of an NFL playoff game without relying on an 11.5% hold (!!) as a crutch. Pathetic.
(This is HOU team total menu)
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Only thing I have to say on the topic du jour:
If your response to the slide last night is some form of “NFL is rigged” then you absolutely should not be betting on the NFL.
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Another remarkably pertinent point from Clear Thinking by Shane Parrish
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DraftKings straight ripping people off with their alternate spread prices.
Colts ML is +175 and Colts -2.5 is +169?
PSA: don’t blindly bet alt lines because some books are gouging you.
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I’m sorry but have we all forgotten that Matthew Stafford exists, and is probably the best quarterback in the NFC?
In no order: Hurts, Dak, Geno, Cousins. Is it even at all controversial to put Goff 5th?
Carr? Daniel Jones?
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People suggesting maybe Staley wishes he had taken a FG at some point instead of going for it on 4th down…
He does not. He wishes guys would catch the ball. Process was sound, and if you judge process on short term results only you will miss out.
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Well, the evidence is in folks. He threw an accurate pass once so he clearly doesn’t have accuracy issues.
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His skills outside the pocket pop on film.
When he can roll out and shrink the field, good things happen.
Look at him straight up beat Nick Bosa to the edge.
That’s Nick Bosa, and he made him look slow.
[10/16]
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Betting $100 that the Chiefs win every game this season, one game at a time. Will roll it over each week.
I assume that will pay better than any 17-0 prop because I can line shop and back out if they rest starters in Week 18.
Gm 1
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The line movement on TB/BUF illustrates a common flaw in thinking about how player injuries are valued, imo.
Opened BUF -7.5, and early movement towards the 7 (-115 some places) showed support on TB.
Then Mayfield misses practice, the game goes off the board and returns -8.5.
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32 days to kick off. My team ratings, one per day.
32. ARI
Proj: 3-14, miss playoffs
Even if they rush Kyler back, drop in 3rd down efficiency more signal than noise last year. If McCoy, can be feisty ATS w/ a few upsets. Low ceiling.
Bets: None
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If it’s “woke” to object to a man telling a bunch of women graduating from college that they should abandon their own pursuits to serve their husbands and kids and that their life will finally begin when they become a homemaker, then yes, I am definitely woke.
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Just checked in for my flight and it finally has hit me in a visceral way.
I’m going to the motherfuckin Super Bowl.
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This season I am publicly testing my model against game-day NFL markets. These lines represent the consensus market opinion and are extremely difficult to beat. But they are not perfect.
My goal is to beat those lines. This season I am confident enough to take that goal public.
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Throw out the stats.
I saw:
-quick decision-making
-seeing the entire field while not losing sight of pressure
-quick release on deep throws
-excellent pocket mobility and underrated speed
-taking smart gambles
As a rookie. The future is bright.
[9/11]
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My favorite thing about coaches downplaying analytics is when they say “you have to account for other things like…” and then go on to list a bunch of things analytics accounts for
Giving new Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel a 3 out of 10 for his answer here on the value of analytics. Good joke to start, but immediately hedges and downplays the value.
"It's a useful tool, *but* like anything else you can't take it as an absolute..."
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Now, we don't know who made the mistake. Maybe he called the wrong play. Maybe it was a read play and Tavon Austin missed the read.
But we know what Lawrence thought, based on his body language talking to Austin after the play.
This stuff happened all year.
[6/11]
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Me to my wife, ambiguously, after placing the biggest bet of my life: “Sometimes you have to push yourself through discomfort to truly grow”
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This Colts Bears game is like if two boxers went in a ring and punched themselves in the face until they both fell over
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Today was a very good day.
CHI +10.5 -110 +2u
GB +3.5 -110 +2u
JAX -6.5 -110 +1.45u
NYG/WAS O 37 -110 +1.5u
ARI/HOU U 49 -110 +1u
LV +13.5 -110 +1u
Teaser: BUF -1, MIN +8 -120 +2u
BUF -19.5 +340 +1.02u 🔥
TB/SF O 41.5 -110 -1.1u
SEA TT O 23.5 -104 -1.04u
2H bets:
GB/LAC O
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Been reflecting on why this Tweet lingered on my mind this week. It's because it exemplifies something important.
(long tweet, cue the "I ain't reading all that" meme)
According to Spanky, If you say "+100" instead of "even money" then you are full of bullshit. "Even money" is
To all you pretty faces out there in sports betting media, please educate yourself on the basic lingo.
+100 is not “Plus 100” it’s “Even Money”
5.5 is not “Five point five” it’s “Five and a half”
You at least give yourself a shot of someone believing your bullshit.
Thanks 🙏
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My wife and I have a tradition during the NFL season that I cannot recommend more highly.
Every Saturday is her day. She gets whatever she wants and we do whatever she wants. No distractions.
It’s my favorite day of the week.
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It’s funny spending the whole week obsessing about getting the best price available and then seven minutes into the game it’s clear that price didn’t matter
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Random (maybe invalid) drinking-alone thought: we should teach betting/gambling in schools. How to calculate and interpret odds, show how the house advantage works, bankroll management, betting markets and movement, etc.
Offer it as an elective and any degen is gonna love the
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Fan-friendly NFL predictions:
BUF 15-2
NYJ 14-3
MIA 14-3
NE 11-6
CIN 16-1
BAL 14-3
CLE 13-4
PIT 12-5
JAC 15-2
TEN 11-6
IND 10-7
HOU 9-8
KC 17-0
LAC 15-2
DEN 12-5
LV 11-6
PHI 16-1
DAL 15-2
NYG 12-5
WAS 11-6
DET 14-3
MIN 14-3
CHI 12-5
GB 11-6
NO 13-4
ATL 12-5
CAR 12-5
TB
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Adults are allowed to get excited about things!
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I placed one official awards bet all season: Mahomes MVP +900.
900% ROI on awards… I’ll take it.
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Belichick did what he does best: make his team outplay its talent.
Brady did what he does best: win the big game without actually playing that well.
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This game is a perfect example of why I never risk more than 3-4% bankroll on one angle.
I felt very confident in my handicap but there is too much variance to make outsized risks.
I hate losing but I’m focused on process and I stand by it after that first half.
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I’m old enough to remember when the Timberwolves won the NBA championship on Twitter about a week ago
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I provide a public service to all interested parties.
Chiefs’ fans/bettors get a nice hit of confirmation bias and Eagles’ fans/bettors get a target they can dunk on when the Eagles win.
You’re welcome, world.
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Week 1 AM:
TB +7 -110 (2.2u), TB ML +200 (0.3u)
CLE +2.5 -110 (2.2u)
CIN/CLE U 48.5 -110 (1.1u)
CAR/ATL O 39.5 -110 (1.1u)
SF -9.5 +285 (0.6u)
All bets provided on 4for4 betting discord.
Good luck today, everyone.
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Lamar Jackson went 14-2 with a rookie WR who was not far off Mooney and not much else.
Jalen Hurts went 9-8 with a small rookie WR and not much else.
Kaepernick has two deep playoff runs with Crabtree and not much else.
[14/16]
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But it's not that simple. When you zoom out, you see Tavon Austin run a post when Lawrence clearly expected a deep cross with a horizontal cut to the sideline.
He felt the pressure without losing sight of the field and threw to the one spot that was open.
[5/11]
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Career EPA per dropback in 4th Q/OT of playoff games:
Mahomes +0.241 (130 plays)
Allen +0.043 (122 plays)
Burrow: -0.152 (52 plays)
As a reference point, Burrow’s EPA/play in 4th Q/OT of playoff games is lower than Zach Wilson’s career EPA/play (-0.126)
@SharpClarkeNFL
Could it be a result of conservative coaching by Taylor? Are there any figures on attempts, completion percentage, etc in these situations?
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Two dudes giving out some betting gems in the sauna right now:
-In NBA, wait until a team goes down 20 then bet them live
-In NFL, bet futures on the top 4 favorites to win the Super Bowl and you are guaranteed to win
-Don’t do parlays. Do round robins.
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Also, books should not be limiting anyone.
Hang a line. Name a max bet. Limit one per customer.
Or don't be a Sportsbook.
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Also:
-7 of his 17 INTs (and roughly half of his turnover-worthy plays) came in the first three games.
-His ratio of sacks per pressure was one of the lowest in the NFL, along with Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.
-Relatedly, throwaways ding his accuracy ratings.
[10/11]
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Angle 1: PHI's excellent defensive metrics likely mean very little in this matchup.
Two things go into this: First, the Eagles' splits show vast performance gaps between teams with bad o-lines, bad schemes, and/or bad quarterbacks and good offenses. KC excels at all 3.
[2/x]
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Jared Goff (12.3%)
Dak Prescott (13.9%)
Davis Mills (14.6%)
Each of these teams performed above expectation v. this PHI defense.
Mahomes is at 10.5%, best in the NFL.
Sack- and pressure-dependent defenses tend to have wider splits based on the quality of opponent.
[4/x]
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In particular, they have thrived on a high pressure-to-sack ratio, and Mahomes is the best in the league at avoiding sacks under pressure. QBs dictate this stat more strongly than defenses do.
PHI faced 3 full-time QBs with < 15% sacks per pressure this season.
[3/x]
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He also becomes a better passer on the run because footwork is not an issue.
Watch him create space, then put it only where his TE can get it, on the run, across his body.
This also makes it easier on the offensive lineman, who just has to direct Bosa inside.
[11/16]
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As a reminder, NFL quarterbacks routinely have a positive correlation between efficiency and win probability but Mahomes plays his best football in the toughest spots.
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Through two weeks, Matthew Stafford is the MVP in my opinion (formed from watching every snap of every game so far).
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This is because they create their own offense. They don’t rely on the talent around them.
Yes, those teams had better defenses of course.
But looking at the Bears schedule, Fields should be competitive all by himself (if he stays healthy).
[15/16]
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An update on my betting journey, for those interested. Again, I am not a professional bettor because I make my primary income from a day job.
But I am a winning bettor, originating almost exclusively NFL sides, totals, and futures.
In 2020, I started betting NFL sides with a
Full Transparency Time.
Apparently some people think I am a “pro bettor.” I am not.
A pro bettor makes their living from betting. I make my living at a day job and bet on the NFL as a challenge and a hobby.
I am a winning bettor. I started betting seriously in 2020 and have
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Having Tua and Tyreek on the same team is creating a new route. I call it the “go and curl back around to come get it”
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Update! The 2023 season ends 119-107-9 for +8.18 units on my public plays.
Would have loved better results but considering how things ran early, I’m proud of the recovery and securing another profitable season.
Over 4 seasons of posting publicly, I finish 358-316-18 for +34.42
Transparency time.
This season has been really, really rough for me.
After Week 10, my posted plays to date are 49-59-2 for -22.66 units on the season.
Privately, it’s slightly worse.
I came into the season with a lot of confidence, based on the robustness of my process, the
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If you ignore everything you know about the players and just sit down and watch several games of Joe Burrow playing quarterback and then watch several games of Justin Herbert playing quarterback it’s very difficult to come away with the impression that Burrow is better imo
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An “about me” video for my new followers. Welcome aboard.
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Oh fuck it I’ll say it: market is wrong, should be MIN -4. Logging off now have fun with it.
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That was not a one-off clip. Check this one out.
Mooney doesn’t score here because of crisp route-running and a timing throw.
Fields just creates enough time for Mooney to find a spot.
And Fields throws another dime on the run.
[12/16]
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The market was wrong.
Oh fuck it I’ll say it: market is wrong, should be MIN -4. Logging off now have fun with it.
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Lot of talk about who was getting disrespected in this game when the answer was the KC defense
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This season they were so good against such a bad schedule that they rarely faced negative situations, especially against good teams.
In 2021, 46.7% (274 of 587) of Hurts' dropbacks came when PHI's Vegas-adjusted win probability was > 40%.
In 2022: 95.1% (598 of 629).
[7/x]
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The ratio of likes on this exchange confirms I’m not the only one, but I prefer a book that states its rules and sticks to them over ad hoc marketing tactics that create unreasonable expectations. Another W for Circa here.
@youngwort
@Pokerisallluck
@DerekJStevens
We don't take our cues from other sportsbooks. Some evidently voided Rodgers props which means winning under tickets were instead refunded. Ridiculous.
We will be here for those who appreciate consistency and clarity in grading.
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