Connor Allen
@ConnorAllenNFL
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Director, Business Development & Betting at Betsperts Group | Player Prop Bets @4for4Football & @4for4Bets
Chicago, IL
Joined March 2015
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Sportsbooks have already posted HUNDREDS of NFL season-long player props for 2024!
I analyzed 892 props from the last 3 seasons and found 7 notable trends that will win you money betting this market:
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Has Malik Nabers said one positive thing about being a part of the New York Giants yet
Malik Nabers on the
#Giants
throwback uniforms: “It’s gonna be hard to swag it out. That’s all I got to say about it.” 😂😂
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March Madness is known for wild upsets yet over 95% of NCAA Tournament winners have met these 2 criteria:
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Fanduel offered Daron Bland to have a pick 6 at 27/1.
The traders probably thought they laid the trap of the year 😂
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These teams meet BOTH the offensive (top-21) and defensive (top-37) qualifications this year:
1) UConn: 1st O, 11th D
2) Purdue: 4th O, 21st D
3) Duke: 7th O, 26th D
4) Arizona: 8th O, 12th D
5) Auburn: 10th O, 4th D
6) Creighton: 12th O, 24th D
7) Houston: 17th O, 2nd D
8)
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Sportsbooks have released lines for all 18 weeks of the NFL season.
I spent 444 hours analyzing them and found 6 teams that stood out 🧵
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Justin Jefferson isn’t seeing a single target next season
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Travis Etienne’s receiving yard prop: 20.5
Etienne before this play: 24 receiving yards
Etienne after this play and final stats: 18 receiving yards
🤮🤮🤮
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Interesting look at offensive play-caller rankings from
@PattonAnalytics
.
My biggest Takeaway is pure confirmation bias:
Arthur Smith is not only the worst but twice as bad as the next closest 💀
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Week 4 Insider Report Summary
• Report: "Deshaun Watson will start"
Result: Announced out early Sunday
• Report: Marvin Mims to see an "expanded role"
Result: Ran 12 routes tied with Brandon Johnson
• Report: Roschon Johnson "expanded role"
Result: Out-touched 22-to-6 by
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Name a better starting (QB-RB-WR) trio:
Daniel Jones
Devin Singletary
Jalin Hyatt
😤😤😤
Giants are signing RB Devin Singletary, per sources.
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$20 ➡️ $12,005
I’ve never felt so good about a 599/1 alt season-long receiving yard over parlay
So which leg busts? 🧐
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DraftKings is already offering an anytime touchdown market for the Super Bowl.
The fine print; If the player doesn’t play or make the Super Bowl, the bet is STILL action 😂
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Sportsbooks have posted hundreds of NFL season-long player props for 2022 already.
I analyzed 243 props from last season and found 5 interesting trends that will help you win money betting them this year 🧵⤵️
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Wonder where I have seen this before
Vikings training camp:
• KJ Osborn predicted to get more snaps than Jordan Addison this season
• TJ Hockenson predicted to get the second-most targets on the team
• Wouldn't be surprising to see Vikings take a shot on backup veteran RB
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NFL Lines for the ENTIRE 2023 season
(DraftKings Sportsbook)
Main Takeaways
• Cardinals are favored in ZERO games this season.
• Falcons are favored in 8 games, but none of them are more than 3 points.
• Panthers are underdogs in 6 straight games leading into their bye week.
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Win your March Madness bracket pool with these 4 strategies:
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Drake Maye and his family celebrated after the draft by shooting some craps at Caesars. Absolute legend already.
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Arthur Smith’s first job in the NFL was with the Washington Commanders.
His only past experience was a UNC grad assistant.
I wonder how he got that job? 🧐
Arthur Smith, the son of a billionaire, criticizing a former quarterback who actually earned his money in the sport he’s giving feedback on.
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Saying John Dorsey single-handedly turned around the Cleveland Browns is like calling Kylie Jenner a “self-made” billionaire.
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The Baltimore Ravens have the second-most runs out of shotgun this season (343 carries) and are averaging 5.56 yards per carry.
The Chiefs are allowing 5.13 yards per carry and have the lowest stuff rate in the league against runs out of shotgun.
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Just found $300 in government bonds someone gave to me 20 years ago.
My first instinct was to put the money on a longshot parlay for Week 3...
My wife's take was to hold on and let them "accrue value" because they are "cool."
...It should definitely go on a parlay, right?
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Justin Fields has just TWO TOTAL designed runs this season for one yard.
In his final 9 games of last season, Fields had 31 designed runs (3.4 per game) for 310 yards (34 yards per game).
I truly have no idea what Luke Getsy is doing...
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5 teams who will be very popular in brackets specifically did not meet the thresholds by a large margin including:
1) Iowa State (55th in O)
2) Illinois (93rd in D)
3) Alabama (112th in D)
4) Kentucky (108th in D)
5) Baylor (64th in D)
Be cautious when selecting these teams
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The Cowboys have won 75% of their games when Zeke has 22-or-more carries this season.
Unacceptable they didn’t give him three more carries tonight to lock up the victory.
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The Bears played 8 games against teams that finished with a winning record this season.
They went 1-7 in those games.
After extensive meetings Monday and Tuesday, the Bears are not making a head coaching change and Matt Eberflus offically is expected to return for the 2024 season, per league sources.
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Arthur Smith said to Peter Skoronski during his visit with the
#Falcons
, "You’re really boring me right now. Your answers are so boring."
Skoronski added "The whole meeting, he kept looking at his computer."
Interesting piece from
@danpompei
:
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DeAndre Hopkins is now -300 to go to the Tennessee Titans at DraftKings 👀
He was +500 yesterday.
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It's Week 11. Devin Singletary has the highest rushing prop in the entire league, more than 20 yards higher than Derrick Henry and 10 yards higher than both Tony Pollard and CMC.
How did we get here
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8 key stats you need to know before betting on the Super Bowl:
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The Bears have an unbelievable track record of rarely fully aligning their GM/HC/QB which has led to dysfunction for more than a decade.
Let's start in 2011...
Jerry Angelo was the GM until 2011. Phil Emery replaced him in 2012, and despite the change at GM, Emery kept HC
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A few more!
Report: Aaron Jones “all systems go”
Result: Snap count
Report: Vikings to ride hot hand
Result: Mattison played whole first quarter and out-touched Akers 18-7.
Report: David Montgomery is out, Jahmyr Gibbs to still play big role
Result: Played and had 32 carries
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This isn't an end-all-be-all but can be a helpful guide when selecting winners for your bracket pool.
Two teams that aren't worth counting out because they narrowly missed the historical thresholds:
1) North Carolina: 24th in O, 6th in D
2) Texas Tech: 23rd in O and 45th in D
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The Lions drafted at 12 and 18, ending up with:
Jahmyr Gibbs
Jack Campbell
This is Jon Gruden, Mike Mayock-level reaching right now
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We have now heard CJ Stroud:
-Bombed the S2 test (which you can prepare for)
-Is hard to coach
-Ghosted Manning academy
Whether it’s true or not, he is getting wrecked by the media.
Report: CJ Stroud made a commitment to the Manning Passing Academy but “the night before he ghosted them and didn’t show up”, per
@Brady_Quinn
"When you do that, that's gonna set up alarms for people."
Quinn noted that as one of three concerns with Stroud (h/t
@PanthersAnalyst
)
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1) 95% of National Champions have ranked 21st or better in adjusted offensive efficiency.
The only outlier: 2014 UCONN
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Former SF run-game coordinator and OC Mike McDaniel is now the Dolphins HC.
Per
@SportsInfo_SIS
, the 49ers used zone blocking 282 times last season, 6th-most in the NFL.
Chase Edmonds on zone blocking last season (50+ carries)
EPA per play: 1st
Yards Per Attempt: 5.8 (1st)
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Decided to skip the ladder and take the elevator straight from $10 to $12,000 for this holiday slate 🚀
I’ll give away $1,000 to someone who likes this if it hits.
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The more I think about it, this may be one of the worst accounts on Twitter
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We now have 7? potential first round wideouts…
Locks:
Marvin Harrison Jr
Malik Nabers
Rome Odunze
Brian Thomas Jr
Post-Combine bumps and potential late first-rounders:
Ladd Mcconkey
Xavier Worthy
Adonai Mitchell
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Michael Penix at 8 may one of the worst picks in recent memory
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There are two qualifications that over 95% of March Madness National Champions have had in the past 21 years.
Using PRE-TOURNAMENT Ken Pom metrics of previous national champions, two specific metrics stand out.
Adjusted offensive efficiency, and adjusted defensive efficiency.
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This is arguably the dumbest trend I have ever heard.
Kansas City may be the favorite but
@ClayTravis
has a trend that shows why Tennessee looks like the sharp play on Sunday. 📈👀💰
#TrendSpotting
#NFLPlayoffs
#TENvsKC
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2) 95% of winners ranked 37th or better in adjusted defensive efficiency margin and 100% ranked 44th or better.
2021 Baylor is the outlier here and their metrics were off because of a mid-season Covid outbreak.
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Anyone else besides me think Derrick Henry is going to be another Heisman winner NFL bust? Great college player but still...
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Sportsbooks set thousands of NFL player prop lines every week, making it extremely difficult to be accurate.
I’ve recorded four consecutive profitable seasons exploiting inefficiencies betting NFL player props.
Here’s 9 strategies I use that will help make you money💰⤵️🧵
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Schefter just said the
#Bills
wanted to “take Josh Allen playing in those Wyoming weather conditions and bring him to Buffalo and have similar success in their weather conditions.”
What did Josh Allen actually do successfully at Wyoming?
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Very typical of Ballage, a lot of movement without actually going anywhere
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I created a sheet that compared win totals, the number of games they are favored in, and their “implied wins.”
To get each teams implied wins I converted the spread of each game into a win percentage (using historical outright win rate of how much a team is favored by).
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Last night at a bar in Chicago I was told that Velus Jones is a better prospect than Garrett Wilson, that because Joe Burrow didn’t have an offensive line Justin Fields doesn’t need one, and that the Bears are a lock to make the playoffs. Fandom is one hell of a drug 💀
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I’m just gonna have this video on repeat until the season starts
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Looks like the zombie apocalypse is saving us from Commanders-Bears on Thursday. Respect
Turn off your cell phones on October 4th. The EBS is going to "test" the system using 5G. This will activate the Marburg virus in people who have been vaccinated. And sadly turn some of them into zombies.
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This analysis is becoming much more popular in recent years but if you want to read more about my bracket strategy for this season using other historical data points, check out this free article:
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DK Metcalf this season....
Week 1: 4/106/0
Week 2: 4/110/1
Week 3: 4/92/1
Week 4: 4/95/1
Week 5: 6/93/2
Insane.
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Everyone talks about their best bets but remembering your worst futures bet is always…interesting.
I present to you, Brandon Staley, Coach of the Year!
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1) Use betting lines to pick upsets and make decisions in the first round.
Most people picking a bracket will choose based off of seeds.
Some "upsets" based on seeds that the betting market disagrees with:
• 11-seed New Mexico are 2.5-point favorites over 6-seed Clemson
•
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*checks notes on DT Breiden Fehoko’s storied career*
Snaps in press man against Tyreek Hill: 0
2-minute drills led: 0
🤔🤔🤔
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Counting down the minutes until Allen Robinson pops off for 8/130/2 tonight.
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Which sportsbook is taking $500K on an SGP?!
A bettor in Florida won $5.5 million on a $500,000 four-leg NFL parlay when Texans kicker Matt Ammendola hit a 38-yard field goal on the final play to lift Houston to a 30-27 win over the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, via
@DavidPurdum
.
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Sportsbooks have already posted HUNDREDS of NFL season-long player props for 2023 👀
I analyzed 604 props from the last two seasons and found 6 interesting trends that will help you win money this offseason 🧵
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*Taking out a student loan*
Sign here, here, and here to go to college. Major? Credit score? Income? Who cares, whatever money you need is yours!
*Buying a house*
We need every penny accounted for from the past two years, credit needs to be X, with an income of X verified.
It's easy to say "well you took out a loan you should expect to pay it off", but the entire student loan process is incredibly predatory and built off a societal implication that one must go to college in order to have value as an adult
It should not have to follow you forever.
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Sean Perry went through the full cycle in less than a year!
1) Tweet 6-7 figure wins & blow up on social
2) Post videos driving expensive cars and making reckless bets at a casino
3) Start tout service
4) Lose a lot
5) Make a huge bet
6) Disappear
Truly impressive stuff
Super Bowl Sunday: Sean Perry (
@seanperrywins
) posts ticket of his $1.1M wager on 49ers -1.5 at
@CircaSports
(bet was confirmed legitimate w/Circa)
Feb. 26: That account no longer exists on X
🧐👀
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The best way to pick a winner for your March Madness bracket ⤵️
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Peter Schrager on Good Morning Football: “It is NOT a sure thing it’s Jayden Daniels (at 2nd overall)”
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Excited to announce I have accepted a full-time role with
@4for4football
and
@betsperts
as the Sports Betting Manager!
Couldn’t be more pumped to be working with such a great team.
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We had a strong Week 3 so I'm running a giveaway for the Monday Night Football doubleheader!
If this bet hits I'm giving away HALF the winnings split between THREE people ($1700 EACH).
All you have to do is:
1. RT 🔁
2. Like❤️
3. Follow me
@ConnorAllenNFL
👈
Explanation for
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2024 NFL Win Totals were released!
Some interesting numbers at DK right now:
• San Francisco 49ers: 11.5 (+125/-150)
• Baltimore Ravens: 11.5 (+110/-135)
• Kansas City Chiefs: 11.5 (-110/-110)
• Detroit Lions: 10.5 (-105/-115)
• Green Bay Packers: 10.5 (+130/-155)
•
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Since Khalil Mack entered the league in 2014:
-3rd in DROY voting
-Three Pro Bowls
-2016 defensive player of the year
-2nd most sacks in the league from 2015-2017
He just turned 27 in February.
What more were the Raiders looking for when deciding to pay big money for a player?
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Why is Ronald Jones still being included in these graphics 🤣
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Fuller getting the short-intermediate targets is massive for his fantasy value.
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The best pass-catcher in the NFL on 3rd down (15+ tgts) last season was
@Bease11
. His 71% success rate was 30.5% more successful than avg.
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$1,020 ➡️ $128,596
Coordinated a ridiculous bonus bet alt parlay with
@Dalton_Kates
for Week 2:
- Nick Chubb 125+ rushing yards
- Justin Herbert 325+ passing yards
- Bijan Robinson 125+ scrimmage yards
Which leg blows up the parlay?
*Bet responsibly this was a bonus bet*
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I know this is just one play…but there’s a lot to unpack here💀
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The Browns defense ranks 30th in DVOA and 28th in EPA despite largely playing against bad offenses.
Week 1: Panthers
Week 2: Jets
Week 3: Steelers
Week 4: Falcons
They draw Justin Herbert and the Chargers in Week 5.
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🚂🌬️🌬️🌬️
Jayden Daniels' odds are dropping at DraftKings.
He is now just -180 go 2nd after reaching -330 yesterday.
Drake Maye was as high as +270 and is now just +130 at DraftKings.
Jayden Daniels' odds continue to move higher as the 2nd overall pick:
DK: -330
FD: -300
Caesars: -280
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John Metchie has been CLEARED for training camp after beating cancer.
- 96/1,142/8 as a junior at Alabama while sharing a field with Jameson Williams
- The Texans traded UP to get Metchie at 2.12 in the NFL Draft in 2022.
-Current ADP: WR79
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As it stands today, these are my division winner predictions 👀
-Dolphins
-Ravens
-Jags
-Chiefs
-Cowboys
-Lions
-Falcons
-49ers
With that out there, the only logical thing to do was parlay all of them.
$20 ➡️ $25.2K
Which division do I have wrong?
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Imagine how much you have to donate to DraftKings to be able to get down $40K on anything 😂
Pending parlay tonight.. current cash out offer is $1,103,454
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The Saints were so impressed with what they saw in Derek Carr this year they couldn’t resist
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Looks like Jerry Jeudy got Into it with Steve Smith during warmups 💀
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A Reddit user is confident on Levis going
#1
.
Picks 1-3 are off the board at DK. Levis is down to 5/1 at FD 😂
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Borderline shameful engagement-farming post right here.
This is useful to literally no one right now. There are zero lines posted yet at domestics.
Sportsbooks now have a handy starter guide to help them set the line though.
Thanks Sal!
I Don’t Know If You Know This But…
NFL players are fighting for key incentives this week…
And you can take advantage in the betting markets.
13 player incentives you should know for Week 18:
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Sportsbooks seem to have ZERO interest in potentially getting burned on props in Week 18 this year.
Of the 14 games on Sunday, only 4 games have *some* props.
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I think we are underrating how much of an upgrade the Colts made going from Carson Wentz to Matt Ryan.
The reports from the Colts organization have been glowing so far (via
@TheAthletic
)
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