Steven Patton
@PattonAnalytics
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M.S. in Economics | Charlotte Alum | Host of @purrfect_takes
Charlotte, NC
Joined January 2022
3,000+ words and 20+ visualizations later, this comprehensive study on the NFL trade market offers a new lens to evaluate these transactions and the general managers behind them.
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Drake Maye is poised to be a MVP candidate in the near future
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"I call him 'The Eraser'" - Tom Brady
@PattonAnalytics @FTNData Do you have a chart of EPA/play when he goes to read 2+?.
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Tired: Josh Allen for MVP. Wired: Jayden Daniels for MVP
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Michael Penix makes Anthony Richardson look accurate
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This is Mahomes' world; we’re all just living in it
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Tank Bigsby. That's it. That's the tweet.
2024 Running Back Yards After Contact Leaders 💪. 1) Tank Bigsby.2) Antonio Gibson.3) Chase Brown. More⬇️.(minimum 30 attempts)
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The best and worst active GMs in terms of Net Value Gained through trades since 2020:. 1. Chris Ballard.2. Ryan Poles.3. Chris Grier.4. John Schneider.5. Jason Licht.….23. John Lynch.24. Monti Ossenfort.25. Howie Roseman.26. Les Snead.27. Mickey Loomis
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The MVP race is heating up between Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson
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I present to you. 3x First-Team All-Pro.2x Most Valuable Player.The one and only Lamar Jackson
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The Broncos traded a first round pick for Sean Payton
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The 10 QBs most impacted by drops:. 1. Anthony Richardson: +0.16.2. Jordan Love: +0.14.3. Joe Burrow: +0.13.4. Sam Darnold: +0.13.5. Jayden Daniels: +0.13.6. Trevor Lawrence: +0.12.7. Aaron Rodgers: +0.12.8. CJ Stroud: +0.11.9. Baker Mayfield: +0.10.10. Brock Purdy: +0.10
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1. Joe Burrow (254).2. Jordan Love (230).3. Bo Nix (229).4. CJ Stroud (220).5. Baker Mayfield (214).6. Aaron Rodgers (202).7. Anthony Richardson (202).8. Patrick Mahomes (200).9. Sam Darnold (187).10. Geno Smith (185).
@PattonAnalytics @FTNData Top 10 in dropped yardage?.
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🚨 Play Caller Rankings🚨. Nine teams had positive play calling on both sides of the ball; the Saints, Steelers, Vikings, Titans, Patriots, Cowboys, 49ers, Dolphins, and Jets. There’s a lot of variance to consider after just one week, but the results are always fun to discuss.
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Top 10 QBs in combined rushing EPA:. 1. Jalen Hurts: +52.1.2. Josh Allen: +39.6.3. Jayden Daniels: +38.8.4. Patrick Mahomes: +29.3.5. Drake Maye: +28.5.6. Caleb Williams: +24.3.7. Kyler Murray: +24.8. Anthony Richardson: +21.6.9. Brock Purdy: +20.8.10. Bo Nix: +19.3
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How effective are QBs at creating plays when they leave the pocket and operate out of structure?. The Josh Allen comp for Drake Maye is looking spot on at the moment.
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Jayden Daniels doesn't just lead all rookies in EPA; he leads the entire NFL. Maybe @KurtBenkert was right all along.
@PattonAnalytics Gonna need an update.
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This is Jayden Daniels’ world, and we’re just living in it
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Caleb Williams has struggled to live up to the hype
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Josh Allen is the only QB with a positive net EPA (Scrambles - Sacks)
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Update: Both teams finished 5-12
Panthers get:.Bryce Young. Bears get:.DJ Moore.Keenan Allen.Darnell Wright.Tyrique Stevenson.Caleb Williams.2025 2nd round pick. This might go down as the most lopsided trade of all time. Watch out, the Bears are BACK 🔥🔥🔥
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🚨 Play Caller Rankings 🚨. The Lions and 49ers are arguably the two best teams in the NFC and are led by impressive coaching staffs. The Ravens, Cowboys and Browns have been carried on defense so far, while sputtering on offense.
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The best and worst GMs in terms of Weighted Position Surplus over Blind Surplus in the 2024 NFL Draft:. 1. Ryan Poles.2. Eliot Wolf.3. George Paton.4. Kwesi Adofo-Mensah.5. Mickey Loomis. 28. Dan Morgan.29. Trent Baalke.30. Tom Telesco.31. Monti Ossenfort.32. Brian Gutekunst
Blind surplus represents the inherent value of the pick in millions, minus the contract value. Weighted Position Surplus accounts for reaches and positional value. The average surplus by draft pick is displayed. The Bears, Cardinals, and Vikings each had two 1st round picks.
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Lamar doesn’t always throw to his first read, but when he does, he’s unstoppable
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Lamar holds a substantial lead over the rest of the league
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Tua and Goff won’t be beating the allegations anytime soon
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The top 10 starting QBs in missed yardage: . 1. CJ Stroud (718).2. Patrick Mahomes (562).3. Caleb Williams (545).4. Josh Allen (524).5. Bo Nix (500).6. Jayden Daniels (481).7. Anthony Richardson (458).8. Justin Herbert (409).9. Lamar Jackson (401).10. Jared Goff (358)
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Pete Carmichael might be the least creative play caller right now in the NFL. The play caller ratings do not factor in RPOs, play action, motion or screens. To see these easy buttons correlate with the model's output is cool to see.
It's Mike McDaniel's world and we're just living in it. He should be the COY and I don't think it's close. Pete Carmichael had a nice three week run, but reality is setting in for the Saints' offense. Can Jameis Winston provide a boost?
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The last game (not included) for Williams and Stroud has been a microcosm of their entire season
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🚨 Offensive Play Caller Rankings 🚨. Exhibit A of why I think Mike McDaniel should be COY. Ben Johnson is a hot head coaching candidate for a reason. Shane Waldron should be getting interview requests over Bobby Slowik and Dave Canales.
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The 10 starting QBs most impacted by drops through the first four weeks:. 1. AR (+0.17).2. Danny Dimes (+0.15).3. Darnold (+0.15).4. Watson (+0.11).5. Huntley (+0.11).6. Mahomes (+0.10).7. Lawrence (+0.10).8. Burrow (+0.09).9. Mayfield (+0.09).10. Stafford (+0.09)
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Rookies most impacted by drops:. 5. Jayden Daniels: +0.12. 17. Bo Nix: +0.09.18. Drake Maye: +0.08. 20. Caleb Williams: +0.08
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If we omit sneaks, the top 10 most efficient QBs in designed runs are:. 1. Anthony Richardson.2. Jayden Daniels.3. Josh Allen.4. Justin Fields.5. Lamar Jackson.6. Daniel Jones.7. Baker Mayfield.8. Caleb Williams.9. Bo Nix.10. Dorian Thompson-Robinson
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Every QB in the top right quadrant is playoff bound
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The AFC is home to the league’s elite sack evaders
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After two weeks, Caleb Williams leads the league in missed yards; uncatchable passes thrown when the receiver is charted as open. On the other hand, Daniel Jones has the most dropped yards, which accounts for the expected YAC if the pass had been caught. (TNF is not included)
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A WAR model I’ve been working on currently identifies Josh Allen as the most valuable player this year
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Slowik is clearly the reason behind Stroud’s sophomore slump
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Josh Allen was created in a lab 🧪
Russell Wilson's 5.2% highlight throw rate is 2nd best behind just Josh Allen at 5.6% in 2024 per @FTNFantasy. No other regular quarterback is at even 4.0%.
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As a rookie, Jayden Daniels is a surgeon in the pocket
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Tuanon, I present to you your Pocket King
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Caleb Williams is doing less with more
Caleb Williams has gone 8 straight starts without throwing an interception. The Bears have lost all 8. No other QB in NFL history has had a streak of more than 5 consecutive starts where he didn't throw a pick but still lost (since QB starts were first tracked in 1950).
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People aren't ready to have this discussion
Josh Allen is going to have a legitimately awesome year and then lose the MVP to a RB.
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The top 10 qualifying QBs in drop percentage:. 1. Anthony Richardson: 5.3%.2. Spencer Rattler: 4.9%.3. Joe Burrow: 4.8%.4. Aaron Rodgers: 4.7%.5. Daniel Jones: 4.7%.6. Mason Rudolph: 4.6%.7. Trevor Lawrence: 4.6%.8. Jameis Winston: 4.1%.9. Jordan Love: 4.1%.10. Brock Purdy: 4%
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On average, QBs lose more yards from missed throws than from drops. However, the three starting QBs who have lost more yards to drops than to missed throws are:. Joe Burrow.Geno Smith.Andy Dalton
The 10 starting QBs most impacted by drops on a per-play basis:. 1. Rattler (+0.22).2. AR (+0.17).3. Darnold (+0.12).4. Danny Dimes (+0.11).5. Burrow (+0.11).6. Maye (+0.11).7. Mayfield (+0.10).8. Watson (+0.10).9. Lawrence (+0.09).10. Rodgers (+0.09)
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🚨 Play Caller Rankings 🚨. The Saints have outscored their opponents by 72 points, showing complete dominance on both sides of the ball. The Packers, Chargers, Steelers, Texans, and Bills are the only other teams with both their play callers ranked in the top 10.
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Ben Johnson is the only play caller ranked in the top 5 for both easy button % and play caller score.
The AFC South is the only division without a single offensive play caller with a positive score. Shane Steichen and Brian Daboll appear to be on thin ice, as both of their teams have announced they will retain them despite disappointing seasons.
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Over the past two seasons what does homefield advantage look like for each NFL team? . The three toughest places to play have been San Francisco, Dallas and shockingly Detroit. The league average over the same span is just under two points.
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Jayden Daniels is on pace for a historic season as a rookie QB. Here’s how he compares to some recent all-time great MVP seasons through six games.
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QBs most and least impacted by drops:. 1. Anthony Richardson: +0.14.2. Joe Burrow: +0.12.3. Brock Purdy: +0.12.4. Jordan Love: +0.12.5. Sam Darnold: +0.12. 28. Lamar Jackson: +0.06.29. Will Levis: +0.05.30. Jared Goff: +0.05.31. Kyler Murray: +0.04.32. Jalen Hurts: +0.03
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The Bears upgraded big time at OC. Waldron has coached under Belichick, McVay and Carroll. He helped resurrect Geno's career in Seattle the past couple seasons. He could do the same for Fields in Chicago or put one of the top draft prospects in the best situation to succeed.
The #Bears are working towards a deal to hire Shane Waldron as their new offensive coordinator, per sources. Waldron, 44, spent the past three seasons as Seattle’s OC. Now he’s expected to land in Chicago, which owns the No. 1 pick with a big question looming at QB.
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🚨Offensive Play Caller Update🚨. This PCA model looks at how efficient play callers have been in various personnel packages and how often they've passed the ball in those packages. It also considers market predictions for points scored and points scored over expectation.
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How often did play callers deploy "easy buttons" in their offense? Easy buttons include RPOs, play action, motion, and screen plays. The four play callers with an easy button percentage of 30% or less are Drew Petzing, Joe Brady, Dave Canales, and Kevin Stefanski.
There were six first-time play callers on offense this past Sunday, and four of them finished in the top half of the league. To no one's surprise, Kyle Shanahan, Matt LaFleur, and Mike McDaniel all finished within the top 10 after the first week.
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I prefer a QB who can who can throw accurately downfield
@PattonAnalytics @FTNData How does it feel to have a noodle arm as the supposed qb of the future?.
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It's almost inevitable to see Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVay, and Matt LaFleur in the top right quadrant. Todd Monken and Kliff Kingsbury have designed effective offenses around their dual threat QBs without relying on a ton of easy buttons.
Klint Kubiak regains the top spot, while Kliff Kingsbury is leading the NFL's most efficient offense according to several advanced metrics. The top six play callers are not head coaches, and five of the six work under non-offensive minded head coaches.
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Miss Rate for Rookie QBs:. Drake Maye: 5.9%.Bo Nix: 6.4%.Caleb Williams: 6.7%.Jayden Daniels: 8%
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Eight QBs were responsible for 50% or more of their sacks this year:. Matthew Stafford: 71.4%.Cooper Rush: 61.5%.Will Levis: 58.5%.Dak Prescott: 57.1%.Justin Herbert: 51.2%.Josh Allen: 50%.C.J. Stroud: 50%.Geno Smith: 50%
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The longer a QB holds the ball, the more likely something negative will happen. Kyler Murray and Justin Fields are prime examples of this. What makes Lamar Jackson so valuable is his exceptional ability to extend plays while minimizing negative results.
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🚨 Defensive Play Caller Rankings 🚨. The AFC Championship game will feature two top 10 defensive play callers in Macdonald and Spagnuolo. Half of the defensive coaches with a score below zero have either been dismissed or mutually parted ways.
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The possibilities with this data are endless
DVOA downloads now updated. Remember, @FTNFantasy subscribers can download a workbook with tons of useful DVOA splits each week, plus player stats and individual defense stats. And everything back to 1979!.
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The only starting QBs with more yards lost to drops than missed throws:. Joe Burrow (+82).Geno Smith (+54).Jameis Winston (+4)
The 10 starting QBs most impacted by drops:. 1. Jordan Love (+0.14).2. Josh Allen (+0.13).3. Aaron Rodgers (+0.13).4. Daniel Jones (+0.13).5. Joe Burrow (+0.13).6. Sam Darnold (+0.13).7. Trevor Lawrence (+0.13).8. Brock Purdy (+0.12).9. Bo Nix (+0.12).10. Kirk Cousins (+0.11)
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Tua and Purdy are on opposite ends of the spectrum
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Update: Jayden Daniels is a MVP candidate
Jayden Daniels doesn't just lead all rookies in EPA; he leads the entire NFL. Maybe @KurtBenkert was right all along.
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🚨 Play Caller Rankings🚨. A quarter of the way through the season, three teams from the NFC North find themselves in the top five. The odd one out? Da Bears. The Dolphins continue to unravel after Tua's injury. Will they sign/trade for a QB who can turn their season around?
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The Pressure to Sack Ratio for the Top Three Picks . In College:. Jayden Daniels: 24.5%.Caleb Williams: 19.4%.Drake Maye: 18.9%. in the NFL:. Drake Maye: 30%.Caleb Williams: 29.9%.Jayden Daniels: 27.8%
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Don't say anything bad about Caleb Williams.Don't say anything bad about Caleb Williams.Don't say anything bad about Caleb Williams.Don't say anything ba
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What's does the average ROI for every pick over the past four drafts look like for each team?. For reference, the 1st overall pick is worth 3000 on the Fitgerald-Spielberger chart and the 63rd pick is worth 900.
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Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are the only QBs with positive EPA under pressure
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@tejfbanalytics People love to hate on greatness. The amount of people who've tried to tell me Kirk Cousins is better than Matthew Stafford this year is wild.
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Overall, it’s been a slow start for offenses to start the season. Shanahan, LaFleur, Kubiak and Robinson have done an excellent job of implementing easy buttons so far.
Matt LaFleur delivered a masterclass this past Sunday, while the Saints look unstoppable with the addition of Klint Kubiak this offseason. On the flip side, Dave Canales has struggled in his first year as a head coach, and Shane Waldron has yet to find his footing in Chicago.
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What does Hurts do well besides the tush push?
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There were six first-time play callers on offense this past Sunday, and four of them finished in the top half of the league. To no one's surprise, Kyle Shanahan, Matt LaFleur, and Mike McDaniel all finished within the top 10 after the first week.
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Anthony Richardson is the definition of boom or bust when he's on the field. Negative plays include interception worthy throws, sacks deemed as the QB's fault, and fumbles.
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Can someone explain to me why Brock Bowers deserves OROY over Jayden Daniels?
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The 10 starting QBs in net yards lost due to misses and drops:. 1. Bo Nix (456).2. Stroud (449).3. Allen (427).4. Danny Dimes (397).5. Lawrence (362).6. Rodgers (329).7. Caleb Williams (326).8. Baker (307).9. Mahomes (297).10. Goff (286)
The 10 starting QBs most impacted by drops on a per-play basis through seven weeks: . 1. AR (+0.13).2. Wilson (+0.13).3. Rodgers (+0.13).4. Burrow (+0.10).5. Darnold (+0.10).6. Cousins (+0.10).7. Danny Dimes (+0.10).8. Mayfield (+0.09).9. Lawrence (+0.09).10. Nix (+0.09)
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