Steven Patton
@PattonAnalytics
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M.S. in Economics | Charlotte Alum | Host of @purrfect_takes
Charlotte, NC
Joined January 2022
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A bump for the evening crowd. Really happy with how this turned out and excited to see where it'll go in the future.
How do you value play callers in the NFL? I try to answer that question in this substack post.
The modeling framework produces a score for each play caller since 2016. Do you agree with the top 10 play calling duos going into this fall?
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🚨 Play Caller Rankings 🚨
The Lions and 49ers are arguably the two best teams in the NFC and are led by impressive coaching staffs.
The Ravens, Cowboys and Browns have been carried on defense so far, while sputtering on offense.
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The best and worst GMs in terms of Weighted Position Surplus over Blind Surplus in the 2024 NFL Draft:
1. Ryan Poles
2. Eliot Wolf
3. George Paton
4. Kwesi Adofo-Mensah
5. Mickey Loomis
...
28. Dan Morgan
29. Trent Baalke
30. Tom Telesco
31. Monti Ossenfort
32. Brian Gutekunst
Blind surplus represents the inherent value of the pick in millions, minus the contract value. Weighted Position Surplus accounts for reaches and positional value.
The average surplus by draft pick is displayed. The Bears, Cardinals, and Vikings each had two 1st round picks.
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Pete Carmichael might be the least creative play caller right now in the NFL.
The play caller ratings do not factor in RPOs, play action, motion or screens. To see these easy buttons correlate with the model's output is cool to see.
It's Mike McDaniel's world and we're just living in it. He should be the COY and I don't think it's close.
Pete Carmichael had a nice three week run, but reality is setting in for the Saints' offense. Can Jameis Winston provide a boost?
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🚨 Offensive Play Caller Rankings 🚨
Exhibit A of why I think Mike McDaniel should be COY.
Ben Johnson is a hot head coaching candidate for a reason.
Shane Waldron should be getting interview requests over Bobby Slowik and Dave Canales.
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Over the past two seasons what does homefield advantage look like for each NFL team?
The three toughest places to play have been San Francisco, Dallas and shockingly Detroit. The league average over the same span is just under two points.
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The Bears upgraded big time at OC. Waldron has coached under Belichick, McVay and Carroll.
He helped resurrect Geno's career in Seattle the past couple seasons. He could do the same for Fields in Chicago or put one of the top draft prospects in the best situation to succeed.
The
#Bears
are working towards a deal to hire Shane Waldron as their new offensive coordinator, per sources.
Waldron, 44, spent the past three seasons as Seattle’s OC. Now he’s expected to land in Chicago, which owns the No. 1 pick with a big question looming at QB.
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🚨Offensive Play Caller Update🚨
This PCA model looks at how efficient play callers have been in various personnel packages and how often they've passed the ball in those packages.
It also considers market predictions for points scored and points scored over expectation.
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🚨 Defensive Play Caller Rankings 🚨
The AFC Championship game will feature two top 10 defensive play callers in Macdonald and Spagnuolo.
Half of the defensive coaches with a score below zero have either been dismissed or mutually parted ways.
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What's does the average ROI for every pick over the past four drafts look like for each team?
For reference, the 1st overall pick is worth 3000 on the Fitgerald-Spielberger chart and the 63rd pick is worth 900.
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@tejfbanalytics
People love to hate on greatness. The amount of people who've tried to tell me Kirk Cousins is better than Matthew Stafford this year is wild.
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What should we expect from NFL quarterbacks heading into this season? All 32 starters are ranked by their Predicted EPA (PEPA) per Drive in the table below.
The details and implications of the model are discussed in this article:
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A lot has been made about Josh Allen's turnovers this week and he's actually done a relatively good job at protecting the football.
It's interesting considering QBs like Tua, Purdy, Dak and Lamar generate negative plays at a much higher rate and aren't criticized the same way.
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Who are the best offensive minds in the NFL calling plays right now? The ranking below is generated by Principal Component Analysis (PCA).
The various components include pass over expectation, formation usage and efficiency in 11, 12, 21 and other packages.
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Since 2016, who were the best defensive play callers? The Vikings, Dolphins, Panthers and Browns hired coaches that rank in the top 10.
To no one's surprise, Fangio's defensive philosophy has taken the league by storm.
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Dorsey has been a top 5 play caller for the majority of the season. It's been a down year for offenses in general and the Bills' have still produced at a high level.
The main issues is on the defensive side of the ball, this doesn't fix anything in Buffalo.
This is an important distinction and one we spend time on in last week’s pod:
The numbers say the Bills offense is a top offense in moving the ball (success rate/EPA per play/DVOA/etc).
That is not the same statement as “the numbers say Ken Dorsey is a top OC”.
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Using
@benbbaldwin
's Pass Protection Expectation and plotting it against the salary cap hit for OL under contract in 2022 reveals a positive relationship.
The size of the logo is based on the number of offensive linemen under contract.
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This year's
#BigDataBowl
is under way on Kaggle! The topic centers around line play on both sides of the ball.
The pass protection and pass rush are highlighted in a Mahomes to Kelce TD connection last season in week 1.
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AV from
@pfref
provides a metric for how well a player performs each year.
The AV during a player's rookie contract is tallied and a NLS is used to predict the expected AV of a player given the pick the player was drafted. Actual minus expected leaves us with AVoe.
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I think you're on to something...
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The two Super Bowl teams have built their rosters through the draft very differently. The Chiefs routinely get on base while the Eagles hit homeruns.
A draft hit is defined as a player who has performed at or above expectation on his rookie contract since 2019.
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Kellen Moore continues to widen the gap between him and McCarthy six weeks in despite the loss last night.
It's interesting to note that Monken (18), McCarthy (24) and O'Brien (30) are several years removed from calling plays in the NFL and haven't quite hit their stride.
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Russ and Hackett through six weeks:
29th in EPA per Play
30th in Success Rate
Russ and Payton through six weeks:
20th in EPA per Play
15th in Success Rate
Recency bias is one hell of a drug.
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@HornetsLead
If Jordan is making the pick ain’t no way he’s picking a dude who said Paul George is the GOAT
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The play caller rankings for all 32 teams are here!
Three of the four teams in the conference championship round boast top 10 staffs; the 49ers (2nd), Ravens (5th), and Lions (7th).
Six out of the bottom 12 teams in this ranking will have a new head coach heading into 2024.
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Aaron Glenn and Mike Caldwell are the feel good stories on the defensive side.
Matt Eberflus below Vance Joseph says a lot. The Bears have gone from defensive head coaches to offensive ones over the past decade. They'll probably make that transition again this offseason.
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Four current head coaches were assistants/coordinators under Andy Reid:
Harbaugh (BAL)
Rivera (WAS)
McDermott (BUF)
Pederson (JAX)
Spagnuolo and Nagy have reunited with Reid after their first head coaching stints.
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The Approximate Value gained by the team that drafted the player is displayed. Player contribution on rookie deals is shown over the past four seasons.
The Dolphins, 49ers and Bengals capitalized on their high draft capital unlike the Jaguars and Jets who failed to do so.
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Last year, Mingo led all wide receivers in yards lost when targeted with an uncatchable pass while he was open (one step, open, or wide open).
He lost roughly 265 yards when accounting for expected YAC and catch rate.
Didn’t say Mingo doesn’t deserve grace. He does, and I’ve said that elsewhere.
You don’t know what I was responding to…someone essentially saying Bryce is the reason for how we view Mingo’s rookie year, which is BS.
Also where are we getting “at least 295 yards and 3 TD’s?”
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It's Mike McDaniel's world and we're just living in it. He should be the COY and I don't think it's close.
Pete Carmichael had a nice three week run, but reality is setting in for the Saints' offense. Can Jameis Winston provide a boost?
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What is RAS' relationship with the approximate value on a defender's rookie contract?
Edge rusher's RAS correlates well with on the field performance comparatively to other positions. Defensive tackles are on the opposite side of the spectrum.
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🚨Mid Season QB Update🚨
Back in August I developed a model that predicted a QB's EPA per Drive.
QBs that took the leap? Tua, Fields and Lawrence have all played above expectation so far.
Whereas Brady, Rodgers and Stafford are going in the opposite direction.
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Blind surplus represents the inherent value of the pick in millions, minus the contract value. Weighted Position Surplus accounts for reaches and positional value.
The average surplus by draft pick is displayed. The Bears, Cardinals, and Vikings each had two 1st round picks.
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@BrettKollmann
A little disrespectful to the Pats starting lineup with some nice depth pieces in Uche, White (R), Mapu (R), Peppers and Mills.
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How does a defensive player's RAS compare with the pick they're taken in the draft? Since 2011, strong safety, cornerback and defensive end have the highest correlation.
This does not include players drafted that did not test at the combine.
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Sean McVay and Kevin O'Connell should be contenders for the COY award. They've gotten the most out of their team so far.
On the other hand, Arthur Smith is holding the Falcons back. He's made a lot of poor decisions on/off the field during his coaching tenure in Atlanta.
There's a new
#1
in this week's power rankings as the Ravens take the top spot. This week features a matchup between the Jaguars and 49ers.
The Seahawks are the biggest fallers after a disappointing loss and the Raiders took the biggest leap after firing their head coach.
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WR thread 🧵
How often were wide receivers targeted and how does that correspond with
@bburkeESPN
's Open Score?
The 21 players that had over 1k+ receiving yards last season are displayed. Aiyuk is one of the most appealing WRs to potentially target in a trade this offseason.
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Thomas Brown ranks 12th among offensive play callers after Sunday’s performance. A breath of fresh air for this offense coming off the bye.
Bryce Young's passing chart with OC Thomas Brown calling the plays. 3 attempts plus 20 and 2 very close.
#carolinaPanthers
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🚨 Play Caller Rankings 🚨
Sean Desai was demoted to have Matt Patricia crumble in Seattle. Change in season doesn't usually move the needle or fix personnel issues.
Brandon Staley was fired after giving up 63 points, is Arthur Smith the next head coach to get the pink slip?
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🚨 Week 1 Power Rankings 🚨
The AFC has four teams in the top five, which is a reflection of just how stacked the conference is.
With the help of Bayesian Analysis, ratings for each team based on prior efficiency, quarterback play and roster health are generated.
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@DianteLeeFB
Interesting that a pro said this…
I don’t why cutting is still allowed in the NFL!! We grown ass fucking men! Let’s play ball bro! I hate to see that shit man!
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This year for the
#BigDataBowl
I teamed up with
@BrunoHMioto
and
@JoeArmstrong789
to tackle the latest topic.
We dive into the likelihood of a tackle being made, the optimal path for ball carriers and how those in turn impact yards gained.
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🚨 Play Caller Rankings 🚨
The head coaches for three of the top four teams have ties to the legendary Eagles coaching staff in the 2000s; Reid, Harbaugh and McDermott.
The AFC North is currently the only division where every team has a positive play calling score (total).
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It's amazing how one line of code can ruin the final results, but here we are. Tua dropped back around 215 times in 11 personnel.
With key WR additions this offseason, Fields and Lamar should be more efficient with 3 WRs on the field.
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10 of the 15 teams with positive ROI in the draft since 2019 made the playoffs this past season.
This highlights the importance of hitting on draft picks when building a competitive team in the NFL.
With the first wave of free agency slowing down it's important to remember that teams are built through the draft, not through free agency.
Brett Veach has played a vital role in the Chiefs' consecutive Super Bowl runs, consistently hitting on his draft picks.
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Howell leads the NFL in pass attempts by a wide margin while being 28th in drop percentage.
You'll make excuses for Howell, but rip into Mahomes. Seems pretty biased if you ask me.
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Only six play callers incorporate easy buttons on over 50% of their plays; McDaniel, Shanahan, Reid, McVay, Moore and Hardegree.
Johnson, Waldron, Moore, Monken,and Brady are names to keep an eye out for in the upcoming hiring cycles for head coach vacancies.
Kyle Shanahan and Andy Reid are starting to pull away down the stretch. Almost like both of these coaches know when to turn it on.
Does Doug Pederson need to take back over the play calling to resurrect the Jaguars offense down the stretch?
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I was curious about how often and efficient Russell Wilson has been in empty over the past three years after
@Nate_Tice
's comments on this episode.
He's definitely one of the worst active QBs in empty. The infrequency in this formation hammers home the guard rail point.
🚨New Athletic Football Show!🚨
@Nate_Tice
and I see what we can learn from our coldest predictions and takes from the 2022 preseason.
💩 Colts as a top-10 offense
👎 Cowboys missing the playoffs
📉 Bills as the best team in football
And much more.
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The biggest knock against Lamar's MVP case has been his inability to limit mistakes.
Mahomes ability to play mistake free football remains one of his most underrated traits.
Stroud and Love impressed in their first year as starters.
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Baker Mayfield still ranked 20th in Negative Play Rate (NPR) this past season despite the improvement.
He finished 20th in interception worthy throws, 17th in sacks that were deemed his fault and 22nd in total fumbles.
One thing I thought Dave Canales did really well in Tampa: Got Baker Mayfield to play *faster.* Averaged the lowest time to throw of his career, and lowest sack rate since 2018.
Will be important for Bryce Young.
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There is a positive correlation with these ratings and how often play callers deploy easy buttons in their offense.
Easy buttons are defined as plays with RPOs, play action, motion and/or screens.
🚨 Offensive Play Caller Rankings 🚨
Exhibit A of why I think Mike McDaniel should be COY.
Ben Johnson is a hot head coaching candidate for a reason.
Shane Waldron should be getting interview requests over Bobby Slowik and Dave Canales.
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Dak Prescott leads the league in total EPA if we account for dropped passes. Is Jordan Love the best QB in the NFC North right now?
The points represent the actual EPA for the QB and the team logo represents the potential EPA.
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Does this correlate with how well teams cover the closing spread? There is a strong correlation between the two with a Pearson's R of 0.65.
Arizona, Houston and Atlanta have all hosted a SB in the past 7 years. Recently the home teams have struggled to defend their own turf.
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The Wildcard Matchup between Stafford and Goff should be a good one. Both QBs are among the best at limiting mistakes while generating explosive plays.
Do the Bears continue to build around Justin Fields or will they draft a QB with the 1st overall pick?
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Vance Joseph in the first 5 weeks:
32nd in QB ELO
32nd in Points Over Expectation
27th in EPA (Base)
24th in EPA (Nickel)
26th in EPA (Other)
Since week 6:
1st in QB ELO
1st in Points Over Expectation
13th in EPA (Base)
17th in EPA (Nickel)
26th in EPA (Other)
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For those interested in updates on the play caller rankings this is the thread for you. 🧵
We'll start with the good news. Comparing the data from
@NextGenStats
and
@FTNData
through 15 weeks across 27,514 offensive snaps there is only a difference on 388 plays (~1.4%).
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How efficient were QBs at dropping back when the offense had a numerical blocking advantage last year?
These scenarios typically occur when the defense prioritizes stopping the pass by having fewer defenders in the box.
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Inspired by
@Doug_Analytics
, I delved into the relationship between yards lost to drops and drop rate for WRs.
While Puka Nacua led the NFL in drops it didn't effect his overall production as much. Dropped yards [air yards + mean xyac] are represented as a % of total yards.
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Who were the best QBs last year at mitigating negative plays? Using
@FTNNetwork
's INT worthy throws and sacks credited to the QB, I was able to create a weighted negative play rate.
We get to see Mahomes and Goff kick off the season, which might mean a lot of mistake free ball.
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If the Chiefs win the Super Bowl tomorrow, Mahomes will become the first QB since the '02 merger to win with a salary cap hit above 13%.
The pay discrepancy between Mahomes and Hurts is similar to the '13 and '20 Super Bowls.
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Not to keep spamming this scatterplot template, but I don't think it should come as a surprise that Kyle Shanahan and Mike McDaniel used 21 personnel at a similar rate last year.
Could be a reason why the Lions and Falcons used resources this offseason to beef up their RB rooms.
@TheRealist0n3
@PattonAnalytics
My guess is that the more complex stuff in the playbook is out of 21 personnel and they didn’t run as much of that with the backups. Dolphins ran 21 personnel the most in the NFL right at 1/3 of total snaps
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That being said...
The 2023 Carolina Panthers run game in a nutshell:
(Back to Back plays)
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Andy Reid's all time rank in:
Regular Season Games (3rd: 386)
Regular Season Wins (3rd: 247)
Playoff Appearances (T-2nd: 18)
Playoff Wins (2nd: 22)
Super Bowl Wins (T-5th: 2)
An absolute legend and first ballot HOFer.
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Matthew Stafford continues to be the best mistake free QB after six weeks. Despite poor performances this weekend, Geno and Baker remain in the top 10.
Should we be worried about Tua and Lamar's negative play rate up to this point in the season?
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🚨 Play Caller Rankings🚨
The Ravens are now playing complimentary football on both sides of the ball, they just need to find a way to close out games.
The 49ers and Lions are back in the top 5 after impressive wins on Sunday. The Vikings (8th) aren't too far behind.
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Press Taylor ranks 6th in part because of his high Pass Rate Over Expected with the Jaguars.
The OL has been porous and WR injuries have been a problem all year. A poor final month dampened an 8-3 start for the team.
However, I don't think he's top 10.
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@JustBlande
Not to be that guy, but on Cam’s opening drive the offense generated 4 plays of 15+ yards. On Bryce’s opening drive they generated one such play.
The team in 2011 had more talent at the skill positions which gave the fans something to cheer about.
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Here is time to sack compared to pressure to sack ratio
@dan_tonna
Pressure to sack ratio already exists. We know those numbers. Time to throw excludes sacks. For better or worse.
Time to throw for sacks would an interesting derivative.
@PattonAnalytics
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61% of the teams that were above average in spending on offense made the playoffs. Whereas only 21% of teams below average in spending made the dance this year.
The departure of Tyreek from KC was mitigated by their investment in the OL, Kelce and an arsenal of WRs this season.
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The draft shouldn't change our immediate perception of team strengths in large because rookies aren't usually needle movers as Eric states.
The Jets acquisition of Aaron Rodgers and the Saints signing of Derek Carr the market viewed as significant upgrades this offseason.
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Here's a breakdown of the Bears' draft class. Caleb Williams provided the most annual expected surplus by a wide margin.
Tory Taylor was a massive reach, but the selection of Austin Booker was great value.
@PattonAnalytics
I'd be curious to see these numbers pick-by-pick.
As a Bears fan, I'm wondering which of their later-round picks (which include a 4th round punter) caused them to climb so far above expectation?
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This is a good list.
The Shanahan tree is on another level with 7 out of the 14 top offensive play callers.
Monken and McCarthy started off slow, but have evolved as the season has progressed.
Steichen and Stefanski have been handicapped with backup QB play this year.
After grinding the tape for the Top 50 (soon to be 100 FAs), offensive playcallers I’ve been most impressed with so far this season:
McDaniel
Shanahan
McVay
Slowik
And…
McCarthy
Steichen, Stefanski, Monken honorable mentions
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Interception worthy throws, sacks that are the QB's fault and fumbles the QB took (not lost) are a good way to see how frequently passers generate negative plays.
Stafford and Mayfield have been playing mistake free football to start the year, can they keep this pace up?
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In less than 36 hours, the NFL draft will be underway. Here are the active GMs ranked by their process and evaluation over the past eight years.
After trading Diggs to the Texans, can the Bills and Beane reload through the draft similarly to how the Chiefs and Veach did in '22?
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🚨 Play Caller Rankings 🚨
The defenses for the Ravens, Cowboys and Browns are a big reason why they each have 7+ wins.
Even though the Eagles lead the NFL with a 9-1 record, their overall play calling score falls just outside of the top 10.
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Quarterbacks that won the Super Bowl are highlighted, the size of the team logo is based on the number of dropbacks they had that year.
I don't know if you can justify paying any QB more than $35 million a year right now if your objective is to win the Super Bowl.
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Which QBs have been hurt the most by drops after Week 12? Mayfield, Herbert and Mahomes have all lost 25+ expected points to drops.
EPA through the air is shaded in and EPA from expected YAC is transparent. The # of drops and % of pass attempts are also shown.
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Big shoutout to
@mlfurman3
for his gg_field() function that can be found on github here:
The annotated field made my life a whole lot easier!!
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🚨 Play Caller Rankings 🚨
The Chiefs and Dolphins game this Sunday will feature a showdown between two of the best offensive minds.
A few other notable matchups in week 9 include the Cowboys visiting the Eagles and the Ravens hosting the Seahawks.
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@Peter_Bukowski
The past two weeks I have used a Y Aware approach with the PCA model I discuss in detail here:
A bump for the evening crowd. Really happy with how this turned out and excited to see where it'll go in the future.
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The objective for my Big Data Bowl project is to predict the likelihood of a pass rusher getting pressure on a given play.
15 parameters are used in a XGBoost binary logistic model. They are listed in order of importance in the attached chart.
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First time head coaches; DeMeco Ryans, Shane Steichen, and Jonathan Gannon have all exceeded the market's expectations to start the year.
On the other hand, retreads like Sean Payton and Frank Reich have not found the same success with their new teams.
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I’m begging people to learn about the NFL salary cap before making these kind of claims.
Cooper (DAL -> CLE), AB (PIT -> OAK) and Julio (ATL -> TEN) are recent trades that would be comparable to what would be offered for Hopkins.
Hopkins would already be a Bill or a Chief if they were willing to pay the price that Arizona has asked for (a second rounder).
My bet is it happens on draft day…
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There have been 4 WRs since 2016 to average 3+ Yards per Route Run (YPRR) in a season.
- Julio Jones ('16, '17, '18)
- Davante Adams ('20)
- Cooper Kupp ('21)
- Deebo Samuel ('21)
Julio was the only WR to post multiple seasons with 3+ YPRR during this span.
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There is a positive correlation between play callers using motion and how they rank overall after the first week of the season.
It's always neat to see the relationship between the results from a model and more nuanced data points like motion or play action.
The legacy and impact the Shanahan tree has had on the modern NFL is incredible. It's very fitting to see Shanahan, McVay, LaFleur and McDaniel all in the top five.
There were four first time play callers on Sunday; Brian Johnson, Dave Canales, Bobby Slowik and Drew Petzing.
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@PatriotsStatsR
delved into QB's volatility last year using GINI coefficients. In 2021, Tannehill regressed as predicted.
article:
A lot of talk about Stafford's volatility from
@benbbaldwin
, but I think we should be more concerned about Burrow.
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There have been 31 coaches in NFL history to have coached at least 200 games. How do their win percentages compared to the win probability calculated from closing spreads?
7 of the 13 coaches in the top right quadrant are still head coaches in the NFL.
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In the regular season, Bill Belichick, Don Shula and Andy Reid are Top 3 All-Time in games coached and won. The graphic below illustrates their number of wins above .500 over the course of their careers.
To find out more about any head coach check out:
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This got me thinking about the correlation between the Consensus Big Board Value and the Best Player Available (BPA) at the time of the pick.
They are nearly perfectly linear with a Pearson's R of 0.94 (1 being perfect).
@reinhardNFL
Isn't this the wrong way to analyze this though? You need to see where they were compared to the best available player. Using Arif's consensus board, I've got Gonzalez being the biggest steal, since he was drafted as the best player available and 10 spots after his rank
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@JustBlande
In 2018, my uncle (lifetime Eagles fan) invited me to watch Philadelphia host Carolina. Down 17-0 going into the 4th quarter I was seated by the endzone where Cam hit Olsen for the game winning score.
Never been happier singing Sweet Caroline.
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After two weeks how does your team's offensive player caller rank? This metric will fluctuate over the course of the next couple of weeks until teams settle in.
Dave Canales' play calling career is off to a hot start. He's gotten the most out of Baker and the Bucs offense.
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In a perfect society where receivers don't drop passes who would lead the league in total EPA?
Josh Allen and Dak Prescott have been playing phenomenal football this year worthy of MVP consideration.
@PattonAnalytics
What about a combination of the missing EPA plus actual EPA, re-ranked to show a drops-free EPA ranking.
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Here's what it would look like if we flipped the initial idea and looked at how well defenses force negative plays against the opposing quarterbacks.
Honestly surprised to see the 49ers at 26th. Can their defense take advantage against the mistake prone Daniel Jones tonight?
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With the first wave of free agency slowing down it's important to remember that teams are built through the draft, not through free agency.
Brett Veach has played a vital role in the Chiefs' consecutive Super Bowl runs, consistently hitting on his draft picks.
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