Trench
@Matthew_Trench
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Owner of Anubis Trading Limited. I offer consulting on trading software and systems. Former spread betting & fixed odds bookmaker, syndicate trader & FX trader.
London, England
Joined September 2022
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Last Seen Profiles
For those aspiring to be professional gamblers one thing I don't see being said enough or even ever is that your job is to have all your capital deployed all of the time with the shortest possible resulting timeframe. Make that the objective and work back from there to decide
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Will this misery of bettors talking about politicians betting, the ethics of bearding, gambling legislation and regulatory bodies ever end. Focus on betting, focus on winning and then focus really fucking hard on not telling everyone about it.
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@NUCLRGOLF
Tell me you are desperate to take the bag without telling me you are desperate to take the bag.
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If you are English the best place to watch an England game is in the shittest shit hole bar on a shit TV in the corner in a third world country with foreign commentators and preferably no other English people. Exquisite vibes.
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Lol 3 hours. Should come with the Samaritans number in the show notes.
EPISODE 161 PRESENTED BY
@Pinnacle
🚨
@robpizzola
and Johnny (
@betstamp
) are joined by
@Matthew_Trench
to discuss the current landscape of the sports betting space
➡️
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What a fantastic day was had observing the
@StarSports_Bet
go about their business at Royal Ascot. A big thank you to
@BenStarSports
@SimonNott
@flynngoward
and the rest of the team for being so kind, patient and accommodating. I don’t get to experience much new in the industry
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@TimMeggs
The real answer of course is that the biggest contributing factor was being French.
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I can 100% assure you that the Euros outright market on Betfair has zero emotional bias in it.
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@worstcontrarian
"Oh don't joke about such things lol". "No, no really there was split second where I wondered whether the power cord of my laptop could sustain my weight long enough to get it done. Fortunately someone who needed correcting on the internet popped up on my feed and I got
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Casino, sportsbook, bar, strip club, BBQ pit and Brothel across six floors called Trench’s Wenches.
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Breakfast in the caff, bliss. Just remember if you wake up in the morning you have already won.
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Celebrating
@RaceShare
Robusto win with my coworking space buddies. English sparkling you’ll be pleased to hear
@WIGWOOD
.
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@AKBets
@CelebrantDave66
I think quite possibly nobody in this video has ever done anything responsibly.
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Bookmakers odds are actually incredibly efficient at doing what they are intended for which is maximising margin extraction from the common denominator. More efficient odds from an outcome prediction perspective make less money.
It does sort of sound crazy when you explain the US sports betting economy out loud to smart finance friends who aren’t involved
“The lines must be efficient so you can’t win right”
No, actually it’s really easy to win by betting bad lines. The problem is they’ll kick you out
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If you think that you are in any way superior to anyone else because you calculate some probabilities of sporting outcomes rather than "just arb and abuse bonuses" you have a far lower probability of dying of colon cancer because you must be inspecting yours all the fucking time.
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Winner BSP: 3.75. First rate bookmaking here, wrong result but do this enough times and it is Oysters all round at
@smithswapping
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You work in the betting industry, it is 2024 and your Telegram notifications are now 5x all other phone notifications combined and that includes when you stayed out late without informing the missus.
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The neck hand thing says no sharp objects nearby if you break up with her to me.
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Will this information make you instantly a winning cycling bettor? No. Would winning cycling bettors prefer people not posting this on internet? Quite possibly.
Modelling Tour de France Stage 1 using betting market prices
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"The largest contributor to the betting black market is bookmaker restrictions". Stop it. Just stop it.
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These new 888 adverts are getting wild.
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If you can't beat Tiger's majors record then you just have to go after the ones you think you can.
#shagger
🚨
#BREAKING
: Rory McIlroy and wife Erica Stoll have filed for divorce, TMZ is reporting. Court documents have been filed in the state of Florida.
@TrackingRory
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Topic of childhood obesity brought up on Radio 4. Panellist mentions there being four betting shops on the high street as their opening point as to why people can’t afford decent food. FUCK … MY … LIFE.
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The optimal probability of not getting paid as a professional gambler is not 0%
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Interesting to see the way people see the black market for betting. I can clarify some things for people here but you don’t have to agree with or believe me. Number one reason to operate without a license in a jurisdiction is tax. Always has been and always will be. Number one
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I totally understand the message being conveyed here. What I do wish though is that anyone who is looking to "disrupt" or just start a new business first ask themselves why the status quo exists in its current form. Force yourself to make an argument for the current way of doing
"The longer you're in an industry, the more pessimistic you get." This seems to be the case across a lot of businesses. Industry veterans pile up scars from seeing things go wrong. Which stops investors from betting on innovation.
More on this clip from our new podcast 👇
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"So this guy had 80k on this SGP and ...". Let me stop you right there.
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“People give praise when you do what they want you to do and not when you do something exceptional. Be exceptional and fuck the pats on the head.” Christina Trenhaile 02.06.2024
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18 minutes in and had to pause this to write straight off that this 5 pros versus one syndicate chat is supremely under discussed and seemingly they all form a consensus that there is one correct answer here. In a former life I would talk five hours by myself on this.
EPISODE 152 PRESENTED BY
@Pinnacle
🚨
@robpizzola
and Johnny from
@betstamp
are joined by
@TelemachusModel
to discuss what he's been up to, working with
@RufusPeabody
, facing new challenges, and a whole lot more
➡️
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The new sharp 4d chess play should be recruiting a college graduate and grooming them to be a US book VIP manager and then bearding everything through your cuckoo's nest VIP manager. "really nice kid, surname Kyrollos. Think he comes from NJ?"
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@RufusPeabody
Bookmaking without addicts is about as interesting an industry to get into from a financial perspective as cigarettes without nicotine.
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Wrote a massive long reply tweet which was well considered and backed up by years of domain knowledge and then deleted it before sending. Best ever decision I have made on this app. Talk shit, live happy.
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Is it even ethical to be a professional speculator in anything? Don’t get me wrong efficient closing lines for sports betting is a huge societal gain but could you be doing more?
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Kinda random but nice little video with ideas for sports modellers.
5) Predicting Volatility
As
@SinclairEuan
here explains, volatility is predictable.
If something was very volatile yesterday, it's likely to be quite volatile today as well.
Also over the long-term, volatility tends to return to a typical average.
We'll look into some data.
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Bookmakers and market makers mostly quote to liability not to stake (My former employers a classic holdout). There is simply not the same stake liquidity across all price ranges. With tipsters we want to see apples to apples comparisons that reflect average skill more than they
If you tip at average odds bigger than 2/1 it should be illegal to report your record to level stakes. You should be forced to report your record based on to win one unit not stake one unit.
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Advice for aspiring professional gamblers …
Introducing our 52 Nug Jug Combo! This delicious meal contains 52 of our Hand Breeded Chicken Nuggets stuffed into a one gallon recyclable Urine Jug.
Once you finish the nuggets you can use the jug as a urine receptacle for the long journey ahead. Only $20.99 for a limited time!
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Favourite strategy for golf majors nowadays is to try and find the players that are neither heavily fancied by simulation modellers nor eyeball intuition experts but also have proven themselves in contention.
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I was going to do a full review but I’ll leave you all with Mrs Trenhaile’s instead. “Don’t tell your stupid internet friends about this”. I wanted Fish and Chips from our favourite. Had been thinking about it all day.
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Ahh yes Total Points.
Chelsea vs. Newcastle
Over 3.5 | Total Points
Odds: +122 (44.5%)
Bet Size: $87,300.0
Potential Profit: $106,702.2
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@nickgoff79
England have played near two standard deviations worse than would be expected if using a rudimentary player based model or using an ensemble model of say one using player xG and one using Transfermarket values. Other teams have played far closer to expectation. In order for
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@12Xpert
25% of world GDP, largest military force on the planet and a free floating currency. The US dollar is the leader of the free world and it does not care whose name is on the office door.
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Aspiring professional gamblers here is a tip. Make a pro-gambler swear jar but instead of swearing every time you moan about being able to get a bet put 10% of your net worth in it. Because it is a % you never go broke much like Kelly. If you ever mention Kelly put 20% of your
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Something for me to work towards.
BEST OF GAMBLING TWITTER PT. 1
@robpizzola
and
@JoeyKnish22
broke down the essential follows from
#GamblingTwitter
on this week's
@CirclesOffHQ
... did they miss anyone?
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Watching a silver fox put the moves on a gilf in Soho. Like a gasquet backhand. Taking notes.
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@12Xpert
I mean we could trade internet articles which are often completely worthless and end up on the internet entirely to further the agenda of those posting them. We could discuss whether economic dominance should be classed as total GDP or GDP per capita or whether one can truly
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To further clarify on point one. There are of course unavoidable requirements regarding SOF, SOW and AML. I would happily grant my open banking access to a well vetted and audited independent 3rd party who specialises in establishing any credit or financial irregularity issues.
Here betting industry expert
@Matthew_Trench
tells
@SimonNott
he would
1⃣ never give a bookmaker open banking access (doesnt think it is necessary or trust them to protect the data)
2⃣ definitely use a whatsapp bookie if he was a professional gambler.
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@bronerp4p
@SethBurn
@midcurve180
@RufusPeabody
@dlGgSyeTaGaiN
To speculate is to be human. As natural as breathing. Humans betting with each other is bordering on communal prayer. Demonising wagering or the facilitation of wagering is to deny the existence of the soul.
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Bleach on standby to wash my eyes the moment I see a “prisoner’s dilemma” comment on the ethics debate of bearding.
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Hardly anything I give out will ever be actionable or useful but this is. Never ever close a long standing bank account. Open others fine. If you had one since a kid etc never ever close it and keep using it a bit no matter how shit they are. "Systems" attach huge value to them.
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Signed up to
@RaceShare
and looking forward to first race as an owner of about 0.01% of a bunch of horses. It all has to start somewhere. If Treasure Time loses hopefully I get a private message from
@olibellracing
telling me it was just "frightfully bad luck".
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WIFE WANTS TO TRY A BRAND NEW TAKEAWAY PLACE TONIGHT. THIS IS NOT A DRILL, THIS IS NOT A FUCKING DRILL!
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If you tip at average odds bigger than 2/1 it should be illegal to report your record to level stakes. You should be forced to report your record based on to win one unit not stake one unit.
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@hausofdecline
Don’t think the effort to turn the feet in goes unnoticed. Detail is everything.
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I wish, some serious vig charged on that stuff. Just a case of do one then get several ask me to do one and feel I can’t say no. Imagine people pretty bored of me soon so can take a break for a year.
@RufusPeabody
@BetTheProcess
@Matthew_Trench
Trench doing more media than a Kardashian of late, you launching a new men’s frangrace this fall?
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Get really fucked up and explore every possible way of using the word cunt in a sentence.
question for men: what are your favourite things to do with other men?
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If you think the
@sporttrade_app
markets makers do a good job and you are lazy your bet selection has been greatly simplified.
Great outright odds and liquidity on
@sporttrade_app
(h/t to the new
@UnabatedSports
golf screen)
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@SimonNott
It did indeed emphasise the impact of exclusions on those excluded. It did not talk about how there are frequently kids within schools who are excluded from lessons (different names for this in different schools) but kept on the premises which would simply rise if full exclusion
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These boys seem absolutely determined to build the ultimate nightmare fuel for bookmaking.
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@gamblinglamb
Literally the supermarket model in many ways. Be on average not the most expensive and well positioned on some key items that people always buy. Tesco Bookmaker for the win.
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Jacks best trader book and one of the most interesting chapters.
This is Chris Camillo.
In 2021, Chris was featured in Business Insider for turning $20,000 into $42,000,000, during his 15-year trading career.
His trading style, is one of the most interesting I've ever read about:
- Social Arbitrage
Here’s Chris's story:
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Sharp books. They don't close your account but also don't expect them to stand in the brace position while you field goal kick them in the nuts forever. If that sounds appealing to you though I am sure
@JeffreyBenson12
can arrange a member of the legacy club security team to
"The books have gotten better at setting the lines (in the Draft). A couple years ago Circa released 100 over/unders a month out,"
@VegasRefund
said. "Now they release 40 the week before. That's the best example of where the market was. It's becoming a lot more difficult."
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Nice beer called Python. More of an Excel man myself. This joke works on multiple levels.
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@Super70sSports
Pretty sure “welcome aboard” is what he tells the air stewardess when on shore leave.
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Mexico Open an elite EW shit housery golf event. Excellent time to use the new
@FoG_BLoG
plugin. Nice highlight of the best EW terms at the top with colour scale. Then the FoG Bold type (green) showing you best option when accounting for EW (not always top price)
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So model men what decay rate are you using for Anthony Kim rounds right now? Hopefully some godless savage will reply with a Beyes and Kalman filter answer.
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Prophet Exchange is closing up shop in New Jersey, the lone state in which it is live, but its co-founder promises they will be back, reports
@jeffedelstein
.
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@sbc_josh
The longer tied up the more you need to have on which leads you to leverage which leads you to multiples. All the best long term bettors I know use a lot of multiples which negates a lot of the down side of having money tied up.
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One thing I think we can all agree on is that The Masters was better in the 70’s when the jumps were bigger.
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Golf round scores remain tricky to market make as they are generally fucking boring right up until there is a large course bias that means someone smashes the lot. Sporttrade MM can at least be thankful they cant round robin the fuck out of them.
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Someone just left the spoons leaving their hash browns completely untouched. We literally can’t finish our own fucking breakfast as a nation now.
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If you are a professional gambler and want less KYC and less proof of funds you haven’t thought it through.
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