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@0mamawembanyama
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you either believe in math or you believe in magic
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@James_Holzhauer
if it wasn't for alex jacob and yourself, i'd probably never have realized the value of knowing things and betting accordingly
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why do people just tweet any potential edges they find? it's just a mental illness where people value online clicks and likes more than irl money, right?
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free alpha/+EV play: whenever someone asks you "what's your sign?" give them 5/1 odds if they can correctly guess. given that they're asking about your zodiac sign, they're probably an idiot and will almost always take the bet. good to 11/1
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Am I dumb or are they old:
I've heard successful older sports bettors say "I make a number on a game and if my number differs from the market by X% or more, I bet. When the difference is larger, my bet is larger"
That might've worked then, but I'm very skeptical that works now
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no fake outrage from
@haralabob
?? almost like his sports betting call to action was attention-seeking and egotistical rather than altruistic and selfless
Americans spent over $113 billion on lottery tickets last year, more than they spent on movies, books, concerts and sports tickets - combined.
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Today even a skilled modeler would lose staking amounts proportional how much his model differed from the market. As a model and the market diverge, the likelihood that the model is wrong increases. Staking should instead be weighted by confidence, not by the Δ in predictions
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reminder: parlays are bad and only idiots do parlays
i only do straight bets on main markets because i am 52 and thats how ive been doing it since i was 22. i am resistant to change or learning anything new. i haven't won since 2017.
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@spanky
why do you think the industry has gone to shit?
it's laughably easy to win at these places and i imagine your team has a few whale accounts
generally when im robbing someone i dont also talk shit to their minimum wage doorman on my way out. idk how you guys do it
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idk where i heard this or if it's even true but it just reminded me of the current state of sports betting:
mcdonald's spent millions researching the best locations to put their stores. burger king spent far less and just put their locations as close to mcdonalds' as possible
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if you get deep enough into any industry, this is very likely gonna be your takeaway
are the employees/whistleblowers at Boeing optimistic about planes? you think the Pfizer execs think they're helping society? you think congress has faith in democracy? cmon, this is america
I really dislike this industry and where it’s going. Having trouble seeing how it won’t have a negative impact on society. And I know that makes me a huge hypocrite bc it has made me financially independent.
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it's so insane how much money some of these books will take on markets with odds that they copied off a screen 3 days ago and haven't bothered to recheck so long as they think they're booking an idiot
the sad part is there are so many actual idiots, it works
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berryhorse says he has a guy with 10%+ roi on widely available nba , but if i told you that id get trolled into oblivion lol
i guess its kinda different since im an idiot online and hes a genius online , but still
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I'm usually one to troll and make fun, but I wanna give a real shoutout to
@spankodds
:
I made back my yearly subscription fee yesterday when SO notified me that the Temple QB was out 10 minutes before the rest of the world knew. easy win + cover for their opponent (and me)
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i can just tell he has $50k on the celtics at the worst number imaginable
POV: You’re Paul Pierce walking into TD Garden ☘️
Cavs/Celtics Game 1 is NEXT on TNT!
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the best bets are the ones where you earn more money from the bet than the athlete(s) earned from playing the game
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trying to interview sean perry is like trying to debate trump lmao. how do you converse or negotiate with someone who is detached from reality?
still a fascinating look into the mind of a deranged narcissist. just no regard for fact or truth or logic or reason lol
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+EV move of the week: screenshot every bet you place on app or website immediately after you place the bet
this year, i've had two regulated operators CHANGE my bet (after it was placed) and then try to grade the bets based on their edits lol
#responsible
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@TheRealJWubs
yeah i'll go on record saying kelly criterion is optimal for dumb made up fairy tale games and suboptimal IRL.
kelly didn't know ball
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i don't know one bettor, winning or losing, who was influenced by kevin hart in an ad. i do know ppl who were inspired by bob, spanky, jeopardy james, and/or other "famous" winning sports bettors.
get off your moral high horse and just live and let live
Just to be clear thats not my goal here at all, my goal is to get people (especially young people) to realize that if they gamble enough, it'll either end in tears for them, or they'll be shown the door + i'd really think the marketing of these books should be banned or heavily
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@chinamaniac
everyone in the comment so altruistic and nice, as if it's not a zero sum game where we all try to take each other's money
i'm going with:
1) don't worry, brush it off champ. on to the next!
2) i feel a heater coming up for you
3) shoot to get hot, shoot to stay hot
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i just started following troy hermo a few weeks ago. a true fighter and an inspiration. everyone should approach life and death like troy
fuck cancer rip troy 🖤
This is Troy's brother Alex. Troy sadly passed away while surrounded by family last night. On behalf of Troy, his wife Brennah, and the Hermo family I'd like to thank everyone for supporting, donating, and cheering on Troy through his battle with cancer. He loved all of you.
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going to the gym at noon on a weekday is the pinnacle of abundance and prosperity.
either you're a kid and you have an abundance of time, you're an adult and you have an abundance of freedom, or you're elderly and have an abundance of wisdom
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idk why but i can't get this tweet out of my head it's so funny and perplexing
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circumventing limits in creative and hilarious ways is way more thrilling than actually winning 😂
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couple of guys who want it to be one way, but it's the other
just winning isn't really the game. winning while looking like a loser is the game
or just go beat the real bookmakers & exchanges. oh wait...
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the only time i've seen nba players run from rudy gobert was in march 2020
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they should do a World Series of Sports Betting or something
the nfl contests are kinda like that but nfl, in my humble & correct opinion, is a game for idiots by idiots
make WSSB all sports, so us real intellectuals could partake and not get outclassed by fez & seanperrywins
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you can bet on so much more shit utilizing a Top-Down (technical analysis) approach, but you can be so much more confident in your bets utilizing a Bottom-Up (fundamental analysis) approach
a very fun and interesting optimization problem
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if you DM an athlete about your losing bets you should be euthanized
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it's pretty hilarious that there are probably more 28-17 tickets out there than any other exacta score in SB history, just bc of one moron online
gonna be truly legendary when we all win and grp gets his mid sized sedan and a trip to fort lauderdale or whatever
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one reason sports gambling is so fascinating to me is because, given its ties to organized crime, its history has been purposefully obfuscated. you can't really learn much about the history of sports betting other than from the old heads who lived it
Our newest inductee introduced technology to the sports gambling industry on a grand scale…
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+ (or -) EV move of the week
Up $1000 on Slow Pay Pete's book?
Find a big favorite with low/no synthetic hold. Bet +500 for $1000 at pete's book, Bet -500 for $5000 on a real book/exchange. Get your $ out of pete's book (or accidentally have a 6k balance with a sketchy idiot)
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wemby is a top 10 player already
@HarryDCrane
@FiveThirtyEight
When DARKO puts out numbers this bad, I publicly disclaim them and look into the cause (e.g., Wemby as a top 10 player already).
It’s fine to have a flawed model. It’s not great, but all models have failure modes/blind spots. But ya gotta own it, not just stubbornly defend.
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this guy blinks weird. would not trust
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@MikeVivian
@spanky
don't mean to speak for him, but his opinion is probably something like this
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an observation that transcends sports betting: it's almost never an honor to be labeled a VIP in america. the phrase "VIP" just means "rich sucker who i can probably get money from (either ethically or otherwise)"
if they can't get your money, you're not a VIP
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some people gamble with their time (ie go to work, get paid, go home) and other people gamble with their money (ie have an opinion, risk money, win/lose).
either way literally everyone is "addicted" to gambling; it's the only way to get more than what you had before
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@Ziggys_Duck
you know what the trouble is? we used to make shit in this country, build shit... now we just put our hand in the next guy's pocket
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shoutout to whoever is betting in the hour before wnba and nba summer league games. i'd like to personally thank you and buy you a steak
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trent vs zylbert, choose your fighter.
i'm
#TeamTrent
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@DK__DFS
if by "helping people" you mean "helping strangers get their accounts flagged and not make that much money bc they are poor morons" then yes
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@JoeA_NFL
@norealcappers
@KirkEvans0
1) people online can call me whatever they want lol my life irl is good
2) i think people in this thread are calling you an idiot rather than a liar
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i love when people hype up their favorite internet tout and they tweet their betslip like "this guys discord has changed my life!" and it's like an $800 win
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oftentimes on GT touts are viewed as the scum of the earth and the lowest of the low, but i actually think the people who constantly want to "tail" others and never want to actually do any work themselves are 100x worse
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@joeytunes2
i love the entitlement of guys who are not skilled enough to win inside the rules. just don't use a bot (or don't get caught)?? seems straightforward
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i hate when my number is the same as the market number lol i just did all that work to conclude the market is right and not bet 🤦♂️
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@Man85Sean
nobody has ever seen such a sharp account, it's amazing! this was the sharpest account, let me tell you. it was so sharp they couldn't even tell it was sharp!
we are gonna win so much, you're gonna get tired of winning. you're gonna say "please sean perry stop! no more winning!"
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@sprotzbettor
@KirkEvans0
jesus never won comeback player of the year tho (not sure who they gave it to that year maybe chad pennington?)
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@propdude7
i'm sure many will disagree with this, but i think that perceiving an edge is bad. quantifying an edge is good
if you quantify the same edge every day, and one day it's suddenly and inexplicably larger than it previously was, you should be skeptical not happy
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i think i'm gonna become a guy who owns self storage facilities but tells everyone i'm an "entrepreneur"
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is this gonna be like that viral clip from australia a while back where everyone retweets a politician grilling a stuttering and bewildered sportsbook exec, and then nothing changes?
Have you ever been limited to dollars or pennies by a sportsbook?
Massachusetts Gaming Commission has questions about this common sportsbook practice & will ask the largest U.S. operators about it on Tuesday, May 21. Live on Youtube at 11am ET. Here is the meeting agenda.
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probably such a stupid question, but what % of olympians have real jobs? are these archery guys full time archers or are they also middle school teachers?
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@JasonDRobins
i like the business decision where, instead of actually running a sportsbook, you choose instead to give millions of dollars to celebrities so you can continue not running a sportsbook
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i wholeheartedly reject that anonymous accounts are "hiding behind the screen" or "scared to show their face"
it is just so therapeutic and cathartic to tweet into the void with no likes or responses or people lying to me telling me im right
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@alexjmoretto
@d_feustel
one. Syracuse vs Wake 2019
4 since 1995 (Div-1)
USC vs ASU 1996
Duke vs Clemson 1997
CMU vs EMU 1998
@d_feustel
is full of shit
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@JoeA_NFL
@KirkEvans0
great work JoeA_NFL 👍 i believe you and now i think you DO know ball. moreover, now i agree that Jake Browning is as good as Joe Burrow
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objectively hilarious shoutout tim dillon
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lol
How much money do you think you could make at sports betting per year if you dedicated all of your time and energy to it? (Assuming only legal sites and betting on your own accounts)
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"variance" and "noise" are just buzzwords people use instead of saying "shit idk"
there is no variance or noise or luck, just human ignorance
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@RufusPeabody
@bronerp4p
@SethBurn
@midcurve180
@dlGgSyeTaGaiN
idk if you know this but people used to get killed over gambling debts
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the best part about betting on the nba is not betting because you have no idea who is playing
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so you're telling me the defensive strategy of leaving NBA players wide fuckin open doesn't work? shocking
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@losing_bettor
and if, on the very very off chance, pics were posted, i'm sure they were tasteful and classy!
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@mm_____7634
imo depends why it was steamed. was it RAS? injury? no breaking news and just independent bets moving the number?
others will likely disagree; they'll say as long as you beat the closing number (by enough to overcome the vig), you made a good bet. they're wrong(ish)
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lol remember when people were like "the only other guy to do that is JESUS" as a reason for why demar hamlin should win cpoy
well even jesus couldn't do what wemby does defensively, and wemby still not gonna win 🤦♂️🙏✝️
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@dlGgSyeTaGaiN
@jaredleesmith
@NFLPinnacleBeat
@BetMGM
you just know jared had the "my fair for no sweep is -10000000" tweet written out and ready to press send with 30 seconds left in the fourth
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in my experience, the people who say "idk" and ask a lot of questions make way more money than the people who have it all figured out. idk though maybe i'm wrong 😉
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every pistons game is like a 1vs16 march madness game... if it's even remotely close (it never is), it's electric
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would you rather have an intersex olympic-level boxing daughter or a degenerate retard thinking he's betting on a man to beat up women son?
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career robot user and scraper does not approve of robot using and scraping oh ok my bad rules are rules
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ayo lesson here bey:
when a bookmaker, or any counterparty, sets a price, their goal is almost never to set a 'fair' price
rather, their goal is to set a price which entices ppl to take the 'wrong' side
here jeff is enticing someone to bet No +500. instead, go find a Yes -500
NBA regular season MVP updated
Nikola Jokic win MVP?
Yes -700
No +500
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why do people pay for gas with cash and not just fill it up? they have a car but not a credit card (or $70 in their bank account)?
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just curious..today, with your current network of outs/betting menus/limits, would you rather be able to pick the winning side 53% of the time vs -105 (51.2%) avg odds or be able to pick a winning player prop 80% of the time with avg odds of -250 (66.7%)? is this a stupid q lol?
Sides at 53% (vs -105)
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Props at 80% (vs -250)
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u r dumb
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today on am i dumb or are you old:
why does DonBest make the rotation numbers? and, more importantly, why is the game ID not a hash value from which i can extract info (eg sport, home team, away team, time, date)? how did DB get this authority, and why do we let them fuck it up?
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lord they are taking 30x pinnacle limit - 8 hours before game time - on totals now? gl
BKN Nets @ CLE Cavaliers
Under 207.5 | Total Points
Odds: -106 (51.0%)
Bet Size: $127,500.0
Potential Profit: $120,050.0
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smh free ross ulbricht
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 US Government transfers 30,174
#Bitcoin
worth $2.1 billion seized from Silk Road to Coinbase.
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another episode of am i dumb or are you old:
why are limits for spreads higher than for ML in some/any sports? isn't it easier to probabilistically predict the winner of a game than it is to predict the median outcome of a game?
been thinking about this since the kramer pod
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@mm_____7634
lmaoo esports is EXACTLY why this thought crossed my mind. i'm not about to model a computer game but i'm also not gonna sit back and let other people make money without me
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idgaf about tristan thompson stack, WHAT IS LEBRON ON?!?
NBA says Tristian Thompson tested positive for ibutamoren and SARM LGD-4033.
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i personally think we need to change advertising rules and cripple every 711 and gas station with regulations and hold everyone's hand to make sure they only spend their money on "smart" things
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