DFSx42
@dfsx42
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Following
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sports analytics fraud, boat shoe wearing Masshole, tech startup veteran, ex poker & expat, one million and ninety two thousand ass pennies a year and counting
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Joined February 2019
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Pinned Tweet
came across this gem today - perfectly summarizes the market
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I wouldn't play poker on acr anymore, you can use an exploit to see the folded cards
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@RobKuhn_
Fixed an hour after someone posted it on 2p2. It had existed for some time and had some Good Samaritan not shared it but instead did what most would do and use it to their advantage then it would still exist.
Just an inexcusable mistake. Absolute clown hour. Could easily be more
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Trying to sound smart by telling books to stop offering fairer lines
Dude would happily die broke if it meant he impressed a pseudo-intellectual on twitter along the way
Soft books are not immune to this
Sharp books are not immune to this
@JeffreyBenson12
is not immune to this
@Pinnacle
is not immune to this
Exchanges are not immune to this
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@shrek4224
Never understood these victory lap screenshots. With what you are playing this is a pretty expected payout. In fact, if you don’t do this well at least twice this season you’ll still lose money overall even with this day.
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@BenTheBettor
Remember those times that I, someone who’s been doing this for a living for over a decade, used to dm you with guidance about handling tilt and variance and you just responded with insults and brags about how great you are?
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@darrenrovell
you are such a clown implying one of the most successful people in this industry is money laundering - obviously you don't know who he is because he doesn't shill picks
jfc you suck
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@SaurusBoris
@craptor
Congrats for helping us solve the case. We were trying to figure out who the biggest dumbass on Twitter is and it was pretty hard to tell until now.
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The joy of conning your followers into clicking an affiliate link where they pay 1k month to be shown how to make either $12 or $45 dollars
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@losing_bettor
@GamblingDrama
@EPeterson1974
@d_feustel
@PlusEVAnalytics
ev is very insecure, wants to be recognized as a thought leader despite that he's a hobbyist, & thinks everyone is out to get him
that taints all his interactions in a terrible way to the point where he probably blocked more people than he follows here
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@SourceRyan
Imagine telling your partner that they can't do what they love. Something they could only do for a short while longer anyway. Something which is what they were doing when you met and why you met. Something that is their entire life and identity. If they don't comply then divorce.
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@SaurusBoris
@craptor
Yes, this is entirely different because this information is not supposed to be visible and only those with knowledge of the exploit would have the info so it was a dramatically unfair advantage.
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@HouseAKQJT
@berkey11
He promotes himself as a thought leader to sell coaching services.
Ironically, he sells coaching because he's no longer a winning player.
He's telling everyone he can make them elite and yet doesn't even want to play a whale until shamed into accepting.
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@RobKuhn_
@dajerseyboy
I used to work in tech. That mistake is absolutely inexcusable. Anyone coding it & doing QA would 100% know that’s it’s publicly visible. So it’s not even a bug but rather pure negligence.
Also, that’s not how dms work anymore. You need to fix your settings
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At this point I'm 90% convinced that
@JeffreyBenson12
&
@pointsux
are in a marketing partnership.
Makes zero sense for pointsux to singlehandedly target
@CircaSports
and even less for Jeff to respond every single time to a zero clout loser & even produce unsolicited tweets
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@BrettFavre444
Mad respect, I had fair at -16600 and I’m over market on him in h2hs with that same model so that looks really good to me if you have the liquidity and risk tolerance to weather it
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Sad day
Doyle Brunson is the grandfather of the modern poker era and his legacy will be indelible.
Super System was a big part of my development and for countless others as well.
It was one of the catalysts to putting real thought into poker that revolutionized the game
RIP
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@GamblingDrama
dude is an unhinged nutjob, some people fall into AP stuff because they like the independence it grants them, others fall into it because they are such shitheads that they couldn't ever make it working with others
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@Ben_Cary_
Also championship time for most esports leagues right now. I’m on 4-5 hours of sleep lately and that’s been unhealthy and leading to mistakes. It’s good to grind but overdoing it and entering zombie mode kills ev
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Amazing example of someone being so confidently incorrect they decide to lecture others on how they think it works when he’s so incredibly wrong that
@JeffreyBenson12
jumped into the replies to say so
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@SaurusBoris
@craptor
Nowhere did I say that buddy and I clarified it wasn’t to the one person who asked.
Image is very clearly in the html replayer.
You keep yelling at clouds while indoors.
You got issues kid and that led to angry projection. This is not a path a happiness only temporary relief.
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@SportBetsGuy
Sports betting and dfs have been only source of income for nearly a decade.
Greatest con in the industry is selling $12k annual subs for line scrapers.
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Yeah I was really hoping for 9-9, A-K, and 7-8s games but alas that fucking irony as you call it got in the way and instead they played hockey
Sort of ironic that Vegas is going to win this series 5-2, 7-2, 3-2, 8-3, basically all the worst possible poker hands.
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Let’s get it!
a user made a custom market whether
@grpwins
will be profitable betting NFL through the rest of the season.
No -140
Yes +115
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@a_kane47
7/7
Your app only works for those super users. It’s unnecessarily complex and obfuscated where it should be clean and simple.
You get action from people like me. FanDuel gets it from everyone. Last I checked that’s a much bigger number.
Be humble, learn from competition, grow.
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@MikeVanErmen
@JeffreyBenson12
@pointsux
@CircaSports
I love the implication here that there are multiple benson conspiracy theories :)
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@fantasysixpack
official
3-1 +2.35u
266-222 +23.605
Johnson u3.5 -.6
Rudolph u.5 +1.2
Stroud o263.5 +1
Granson u23.5 +.75
degen 5-3 +.165
88-79 +.463
Pickens o46.5 -.11
Harris o61.5 +.1
Warren o41.5 -.115
Rudolph u32.5 +.1
Collins o74.5 +.1
Downs o39.5 +.1
Alie-Cox o7.5 +.1
Stroud o33.5 -.11
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@BenTheBettor
Just when I think I’ve seen the limits of your genius you throw out another stunner
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@fantasysixpack
Day 3 was huge
official today 11-6 +6.17
playoffs 23-18 +7.98
regular season 275-226 +31.385
total 298-242 +39.365
degen 4-2 +.17
96-87 +.304
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This is the exact kind of "expert level analysis" on golf that convinced me I could beat the market and why I built my predictive model for it last year despite not ever watching nor playing golf and being unable to tell the difference between an iron and a wedge.
*Some VERY sticky event history "winning trends" for the
#ATTProAm
at Pebble Beach
*Only 8 players in the field fit all seven trends...
Jordan Spieth
Tom Hoge
Andrew Putnam
Keith Mitchell
Troy Merritt
Joel Dahmen
Brendon Todd
Nate Lashley
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It's always a bit terrifying on those rare days you find yourself unique in the NBA cash game streets but outperforming the train of death instead of being part of it is always a nice little ego boost.
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The best part about collaborating with others is you get a lot of insights into +EV naming conventions
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Touts missed a golden opportunity to push "Kelce anytime TD because Pat will make him look good in front of Taylor" narrative
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Special Olympics sweats
Ryan Kealy +300
Bobby Hill +1200
Jamaica men's soccer +450
USA men's soccer +600
Kamila Wozna +200
USA men's Athletics -105
Germany women's swimming +1000
The games are going to get 10x more attention now and that's great.
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@losing_bettor
@GamblingDrama
@EPeterson1974
@d_feustel
@PlusEVAnalytics
I disagreed that you could apply wisdom of the crowd to model NFL rsw futures. In super passive aggressive fashion he added me on discord to continue the conversation privately immediately after blocking on Twitter.
His
#1
priority is trying to look smarter than everyone else
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Genuinely wonder what Jobs would think of Apple embracing the clickbait game
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@RufusPeabody
Your experience with Jack is vastly different from the experience of people he doesn't view as assets.
You are also calm, polite, and don't profess expertise in things you aren't an expert in
You get trolled whereas Jack gets legitimate pushback cause he's a pretentious asshole
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@austincwater
@DaveMasonBOL
@darrenrovell
@CirclesOffHQ
@Forbes
@betonline_ag
Austin I tried dming you but you have that turned off. I know people who were finally paid on a Kealy win now.
Absolute trash behavior by BOL only paying out those who complained enough and not everyone who made that wager.
I would start contacting the sportsbetting media
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@daliman13
@grpwins
You're ignoring the fact that he wagers 1k instead of wagering to win 1k so he will lose a few k less over the course of the year while still being able to claim that he bet's 1k per game as that's something he desperately clings upon.
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@JeffreyBenson12
@bronerp4p
@MattZylbert
@PTBryce47
@CircaSports
Wouldn’t that hold up as decent evidence that they aren’t priced in a compelling manner and could use some changes?
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10-4 +7.1u tonight
42-26 +9.67u total
No scr 1st 6 -1.35
u3.5 fg -1.3
No def td +1
goff u254.5 +1
goff o.5 int +1
Love o32.5 attempts +1
St Brown u77.5 +1
Reed u37.5 -1.15
Musgrave u39.5 +1.05
Doubs u3.5 -1.05
Doubs o3.5 rec +1.25
Musgrave u3.5 +1.5
Wicks u1.5 +1
Goff u1.5 +1
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@kourtneelynne
@MattWalshBlog
@DealDr007
Bold claim for a travel agent who only tweets empty calories and yet still has 15k followers
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Just wait until our little Joey boy figures out where Persia and Iran are on a map
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@BalesBets
Is this going to be like all your top shot stuff which was zigging to your zagging. So while you write about fitness you’re actually just sitting on your ass eating fast food be like when you kept on touting great buying opportunities on top shot while you were liquidating yours?
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@WastedGolazo
I’m write up lists of off market football props for a fantasy sports blog.
Former foreign desk journalist that still has the itch so I enjoy doing it and it’s a fun hobby.
But always super clear about perceived edges and downside and in constant fear of taking easy shortcuts
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There's very strong circumstantial evidence that a regulated and Ontario geofenced poker site is breaking the law and employing Chinese prop players to "seed" play of overnight games from 8pm to 5am every day.
Read details here
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@MT_Analysis
Who would have ever have guessed that the teams that score the most goals in general also score the most goals when you isolate to specific time frames
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Found some value for Monday Night Football, there's also a nice little arb that a few of you may have access to if it's around for much longer.
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Found a decent chunk of value that I added on late
NFL Week 4 Thursday Night Football Prop Bets via
@dfsx42
Detroit Lions (-2)
@
Green Bay Packers (45 o/u)
🏈 Jared Goff - 1.5 pass TDs
🏈 Luke Musgrave - 3.5 rec
🏈 Sam LaPorta - 42.5 rec yds
...and more!
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@dankness3
Thought there’d be interesting discussion of the cheating scandal. Instead it’s just some jabroni that went to Times Square once 15 years ago and thinks he has a good handle on what the east coast is like
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F1 shutting down Vegas streets for a race and then sending out crews to put up obstructions to block people from viewing it and having security scream and yell at anyone pausing on the bridge is just disgusting to me.
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@Gugabed
@d_feustel
@pointsux
@CircaSports
since it's not that big a deal then would you like to offer me circa 2h lines and I can bet them 2 minutes into the 2h - we can set it up on 4casters
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Fantastic night to bring us up over 20 units profit on the season.
Even better for me IRL because limits are much higher on team totals than player props so I smashed that bad line with gusto
Official
tonight 8-3 +6.59
season 193-149 +20.255
degen
1-3 -.238
50-44 +.466
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@JeffreyBenson12
@lme1988
You need to read up on some King Niche, if you did you'd know you always gotta have the mind on the grind
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Great night, wish we stuck to our guns and didn't hedge the Zappe td bet.
Official
tonight 6-3 +4.7
season 199-152 24.955
degen
5-0 +.5
55-44 +.966
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5-2 +2.5u
Game 1: 3-1 +1.95u
Wiliams o53.5 -.55
Carr u240.5 +1
Carr u1.5 +.5
Young u195.5 +1
Game 2: 2-1 +0.55u
Chubb o79.5 -1.15
Pickett o198.5 +.5
Pickett u18.5 completions +1.2
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Get that pho
@AJacoby12
For anyone who has bet online, lowvig, or any other book that might copy them directly, on the Odds Boosters today, 85803, 807, 815, and 817 are all plus EV. Can probably only get 25 or $50 on each, but it's something, especially if you're in rollover
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@JeffreyBenson12
@pointsux
@CircaSports
Nobody would even know he exists if you didn’t respond every time and even craft your own tweets on your own like the retirement one.
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Everyone needs to see this. A hold is an industry term for profit margin.
Stop betting parlays! There's a reason why they advertise them so heavily because the juice is so high on them that their profits are several multiples higher.
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@bronerp4p
@FezzikSports
Came here to say the same thing. This is like getting std prevention information from the guy paying you to work the wrong side of a glory hole
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No Messi, no Alba, they are not even in the stadium. So it feels like I'm going to lose it all tonight on HOU
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The model says just bet both Bradley -125 and Reavie +275 and guarantee a profit as usually a 4-5 stroke lead is over a full std lead
But the glance at the scores tells you anyone could easily put up a -8 today, something the model wasn't trained to output. So no action for now.
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Of all the weird stuff to happen with oniine broadcasting - this game show which occurs via a video game has got to be one of the wildest
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@a_kane47
3/x
However, you fail to realize that means that they are now the expected design. That’s what users are familiar with and any deviation, whether or not it’s positive, is going to appear worse at first use.
Think of all of the complaints each time Facebook had an update.
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My dad has been doing errands all day and avoiding spoilers for the Pats game all day with hopes to watch it tonight.
Lifelong Pats fan and he believes in Mac Jones. Going to be a difficult evening for him.
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@shendy456
I’m with you in theory but it’s hard to B consider your data isn’t all Cherry picked when you leave the 5 point margins behind for 37 suddenly at the end because it tells a more convincing story
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Now that soccer season is underway, I thought I’d share a few accounts that are great follows
@WastedGolazo
@DocBettor
@MT_Analysis
There’s a few others but not including because they sadly only tweet a few times a year :(
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@daliman13
One of the people who worked on the show talked at my college about it and said that what happened was the show was originally mapped out with a very specific arc of 3 seasons (iirc) and then ABC kept demanding more seasons. IE: Not a single flashback scene was in original plan
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@MazeOrBowie
A lot of synagogues don't care about the stringent mother rule. It's frankly a bureaucratic step anyway since had the mom converted prior to having the kid then it's all good. So we're really just talking about bureacratic paperwork than anything else and it's thus silly.
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I'm pouring out a white monster for all that grocery money which is forever gone
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Tonight I say goodbye to the best pph account I've ever had. Genuinely sad.
Finding +EV wagers on the most obscure stuff imaginable was so much fun and I'm going to miss it dearly as other outs are pure vanilla.
DM me if you have Ace outs, we can work something out.
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Watching NFL coverage without Greg Olsen constantly chiming in stuff like "down 15 is not a good game state for the Patriots because of their play style, they do not like being in this situation"
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Nearly all public facing hockey analytics are garbage in garbage out models
99.95% win rate for PIT if they tie it up? wtf
Even if I were on the ice with the Hawks, they would be better than 0.05% to win in ot + shootout
last mainstream inefficient market, enjoy while it lasts
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Randomly crunched a T20 parlay and found it +EV
Talked with other cappers and then realized my gaffe as those are not independent events.
It's important to collaborate to stay sharp.
Especially as the -EV bet is going well. Can't let variance and results trump a flawed process
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Added:
Yes score last 2 min 1h -247 1u
Big 4 No 1at TD -110 2u
Longest TD u37.5 yards -115 1u
I put up Big4 on the custom markets on 4casters so good spot to stick it to me if you think these suck :)
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@fantasysixpack
bam
9-4 +7.78u
275-226 +31.385
Smy u25.5 -.55
Digg o60.5 +1
Ach o69.5 -3
Hill u7.5 +1
Digg o5.5 +1
Ced u3.5 +1.5
Shak o2.5 +4.65
Tua o256.5 -.57
Tua u265.5 +1
Tua u1.5 +1
Allen u1.5 -1
Allen o.5 +.75
Allen o22.5 +1
degen
0-2 -.232
88-81 +.231
Hill o90.5 -.117
Kinc u33.5 -.115
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@JskeltsLoLBot
Glad to see you’re expanding the model. No input to give other than your formatting of % is going to confuse all the normies :)
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@JFreshHockey
Yeah I agree, very low priority given it has little Utility here, but you’d have to imagine if that were a Vegas offering you’d max bet the under on gaudreau :)
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