RetiredDonater
@NFLPinnacleBeat
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Pinned Tweet
30-33-2( - 5.46 units) pending:
1) la @ det o 51.5 -111
2) pit +10 -109
3) kc -4.5 -109
4) cle -2.5 -108
5) phi -3 +100
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@BrettKollmann
1 seeds in the NBA have won 50 NBA titles. 5 seed or worse have won 1. May be it matters a little Brett?
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This is like saying the top 5 QBs in the NFL are :
1. Mac Jones
2. Russel Wilson
3. Baker Mayfield
4. Zach Wilson
5. Trace Mcsorley
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Amateur TIP: if you are following someone’s pick and 500 bettors are betting it at the same time. The number will move regardless of whether the person you follow has an edge or not.
PRO TIP: If you are following someone's picks (paid or free does not matter) and the market doesn't start moving immediately after the pick is released, that person likely hasn't established themselves as a long term winner, and the picks are NOT worth following.
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@KurtBenkert
@SleeperNFL
you constantly have some of the worst takes on this platform and then you post something as good as this.
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A lot of people mocking recreationals betting on coinflip. For most who bet the coinflip, it is probably the best bet they will make this week.
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@ASchatzNFL
a 7 to 1 dog is the biggest upset in history? you tweeting something reasonable is a bigger upset.
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the problem with hiring defensive cooridnators dc isnt just they are conservative and most make a bad envt for the QB (mcdermott), they are also usually hired because of short term performance by their defenses, which is often not because of them.
The process by which NFL teams target defensive coordinators in head coaching searches is fascinating to me
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@seanperrywins
how does this have 1000 views and 650 likes
@elonmusk
?can you protect your platform from likely scammers please.
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At 9% ROI for a 100$ unit bettor to make 13707 in a month. He must have released 1550 bets Or 52 bets a day. Does he bet all the soccer leagues in Eastern Europe?
This is so bad I don’t even know what to say. Predatory….
@PaulShag
@robpizzola
@betstamp
#GamblingTwitter
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@kellyinvegas
one possible way to answer that question is probably checking the current odds imo.
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@SharpFootball
Russel Wilson not close. Just want to see Sean Payton's face when he realizes that Hackett comment might not age well.
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@haralabob
league already admitted bob
The NBA shared with teams one of league’s focuses in competition committee meeting had been on offensive players hunting for fouls and veering off paths into defenders – and how those recent points of officiating emphasis have impacted a decrease in league scoring, according to
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@greerreNFL
Yes, teams playing a a very good 3 game stretch look very good when compared to teams playing 16/17 games of all type of games and game conditions.
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rockets had 2 FTs with 8 secs left up by 3 and failed to cover +9. gamble responisbly
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For me the primary reason Mahomes and Allen are above most QBs is how often they step through the B gap and give themselves and indefensible 2 way throw/run option. Daboll and Kafka have added that to DJ's game. That makes an accurate QB lethal.
This play captures the biggest jump Daniel Jones has made
His presnap read was taken away. In the past, he'd sit on that half of the field waiting for a WR to get open. Now, he comes off it, moves up through the pocket which puts LB/DBs in conflict guessing DJ run or pass
#Giants
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Watching some old Brady games. Man to think people thought Aaron Rodgers was better at any point in his career lol. Dont think over his 20 year career there was a point where AR was better at football
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pick 45
Kc -2.5 -110 Aok to -2.5 -110
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I might post CBB for a week or 2 to make up for last 2 weeks run. I dont model CBB. but I have strong reasons/evidence to believe they will win more than my NFL. If enough interest I will do it for 2 weeks and stop. Will track on the side. 20 likes i will post.
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not a hurt as fezzik’s. but someone name a single tout who isnt effectively a scammer?????? some are more sophisticated and even ask for application but name one i dare you.
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@grpwins
even the greatest empires fall. the strongest position in the country is deteriorating before eyes.
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I am at -110 patricia made up the rocket science thing
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A lot of Bankroll management hawks in the gambling industry. For me, betting too little is a bigger problem than betting too much when it comes to success in betting. Fortunately, thanks for FD , DK, and BetMGM, most don't have to worry about betting too little anyway.
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With few exceptions, The probablity that someone makes decent money betting sports is inversely correlated to the number of tweets they have complaining about limits.
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@DougPolkVids
@JNandezPoker
Lol you send a lawyer to hide the truth then come on twitter to enforce your moral highness? Come on man.
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@JeffreyBenson12
If they are so confident in Bengals winning it how about they give us KC +3 for decent limits and take our free money
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if aaron rodgers was a sportsbettor folks
The NFL pushed the panic button 🚨
They have a ref in their rotation who is a MASSIVE edge to road teams
Road teams win at the
#1
highest rate with him...
He penalizes home teams in ways no other ref does... and...
He's calling the Chiefs road game
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Sportsbooks should have a self ban option on a team that cant be reversed where you can permanently ban yourself from betting that team.
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Some asked in DM why I post bad numbers when better numbers are available. My aim here isn’t to have the highest win% or + units. It is to show even in a liquid market with syndicates, tech + information disadvantages, a solo bettor can win at sharp books. Keep the dream alive.
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@JustinBonomo
@PhilGalfond
Ofcourse your experience is the same. You are in the same overly sensitive, virtue signaling bubble.
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how are people who have been betting/touting full time for 25 years still crying about bad beats from various what if angles. cry to yourself or drink over it but have some self-respect pls.
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I have a crazy idea. Might be too crazy though. Take bets!
$PENN took ownership/control of
@barstoolsports
at a discount to fair market value.
But Barstool Sportsbook has been unable to capture market share as forecasted, leading some to speculate that another change in ownership could be on the horizon.
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0-0 all Pinnacle 1 unit main spread and totals, Pending:
1) Buf -2.5 -107
2) Dal -3 -110
3) Phi -3.5 -104
4) Cin @ Cle u 48 -111
5) LV +3.5 +102
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If you want to actively manage your Xander outright tickets and lock in profits. Bet365 offers 3 way hole markets. A great way to mitigate risk and insure longterm success. Gl
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gm everyone. if you need context why the falcons drafted a rb and backup qb in back to back years at 8th overall, i dug a little a deeper.
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Will put out few props a day:
Moving, but I like Mahomes first Pass to be complete at -220. He is 15 -4 (79%, -375) this season. 10-0 last 10 games. -220 is implying 68%. But first and 2nd down with Andy Reid quick game scheme against soft zone. My fair is (-280 to -290).
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anyone else took kc +110 when hitman released, and 10 minutes later took sf -125 when ras released? asking for a friend.
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In the coming days you will hear takes how Jokic is the best player in the world, how Den is finally complete, how they averages 194pts/100 when engaged. Just remember, the Lakers have AD and Denver does not. Yw.
In the coming days you will hear pseudo sharp takes how GSW are too quick. How Lebron cant handle the movement screens, how Lakers are old. Just remember, the Lakers have AD and the Warriors Dont . Yw
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retiredRAS. welcome
@CLARS24
@mjc257
@beatingthebook
@VSiNLive
Sorry, we're on pause for a bit, maybe something again in Feb or Mar.
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Romo just said “the fact that the jets are in this game right now is impressive”
Live line Jets +20.5
Pregame +8.5
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The public still says 'Vegas Knows', We got sportsbooks who accept real money wagers opening SF -6.5.
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Only Russian Hackers sponsored syndicates bet 6 figures to move a line 4 points and then bet mid 7 figures on the other side. I say we need a thorough investigation into meddling in our traditionally sharp markets. That said KC +2.5 -113 is the final pick of the Season.
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Most books including Pinnacle have IND about 500 to 1 to win the SB. If my Math is correct, IND is eliminated from making the playoffs. Not a big deal, very illiquid option. But what is the common recourse on hanging lines that can't possibly win?
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@danorlovsky7
Dan. It might help before every tweet if you ask the simple question. How am I wrong? And How do I make this tweet less wrong.
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Since he joined the NFL Mahomes hasnt been sacked more than 3 times in more than 1 game in any season including playoffs. The books opened PHI sacks at 3 u -120. But Standord alleges they spend millions to come up with these numbers. We cant use logic against it.
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there are humans with alleged functional brains comparing brock purdy to tom brady on this platform. The 49ers would lay minimum -10 with mahomes or Prime brady vs Bal.
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You can bet 20000 at -575 on Circa on Suns not to win and get 3475 if they dont. If they don’t win you get 3478- 1000 = 2478 profit if they win you break even. 2475 profit even at 83% not to win ~2100 > 1866 secured. Also hedging is for kids. Suns are a lock.
Serious question, and never thought I’d be asking this, but should I cashout? KD injury complicates a lot.
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Public bettors think sports-books are much smarter than they are, sharp bettors think sports books are much dumber than they are .
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josh allen deserves better than mcdermott. if you think otherwise, unfortunately you are wrong
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Michael Jordan : Gambling Addict
Tom Brady: Chronic Anger issues
Aaron Rodgers: undiagnosed Mild schezophrenia
tell us more how drake maye is a franchise qb cause he had good answers in interviews, i want to hear
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It is 2023 and Sportsbooks are still infatuated with hold%. If your hold% is too high, you are probably not making as much money as you could/should.
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Pick 8: NYG -5.5 -101. In George I trust.
@JeffreyBenson12
@JayKornegay
@andrewssports
@spanky
Agreed, it wasn’t me that’s why I got 5.5. But I know the secret formula they used and it’s deadly!
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@Richard53436260
@KirkEvans0
@robpizzola
betbash idea
@spanky
. book a side fight. got big D -550 as the opener against either. lets get the action flowing. will get more attendance than f1.
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A lot of talk about the Bengals OL not being as bad as people think. I strongly think this CIN OL is a lot worse than people think. Do not let a shockingly terrible Buf D fool you.
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These are likely true.
-The winner of Circa Million is possibly sharper than the average entrant.
-The winner was almost surely much luckier than the average entrant.
If you follow enough breakeven touts, you will convince yourself one of them is for real. Selection bias.
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No one disrespects originators/aspiring originators as much as steam chasers who make their living chasing the action of others who originate.
Probably gonna sound counterintuitive and piss some people off but in my experience I’ve noticed that the more someone knows about sports and talks about sports, the more likely they are a losing sports bettor.
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I dont think there is a better feeling in betting than betting the wrong side by mistake and winning.
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we might have to start treating the nfl regular season like the nba regular season tbh
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Fire Nagy. even if this isnt His fault guy cant be net positive. Most likely his fault anyway. cant get blown out by a team that has 100 yards with the best QB we have seen play
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Wasnt going to let the AR delusionists ruin my Masters experience. But man now they are charting check-downs to show how elite the most inaccurate, indecisive QB in this draft is.
anthony richardson doesnt get enough credit for how crafty he is in the pocket, using his eyes to move defenders and create throwing windows. it's all over his film.
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I think all opinions are valid. But if you think Derek Carr is an upgrade for the Titans over Tannehill, I personally dont think you should be allowed to vote in your Country’s electoral process.
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Not a trendz guy, but Patrick Mahomes is 80% when playing football professionally.
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@theqbschool
jason he is saving face at the expense of his teammate cause it is on prime time ofc
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strongest position in the country.
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holds an introduction to in play arbitrage betting academy on twitter spaces:
few weeks later
'these dressmakers are closing our accounts '
feel bad for you.
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@JeffreyBenson12
BetMgm “Sharpest”. There are probably about 200 bettable sportsbooks. If I had to rank the least sharp + poor service book I might start with BetMGM
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Any update on that 3% prediction fellas?
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@jaredleesmith
definitely a creative way to lose money, agree. good on betmgm for sponsoring the right guys tho.
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my biased take away from this game is josh allen is special
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@DETROlTLions313
You think a 2k novelty prop limit is too low?. You would get 550 to 1100 on CBB totals 6 hours before kickoff. 2k is decent limits for novelty props that other books dont offer.
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@JChase457
@PFF_Brad
@DaveSulfaro
You are going to need to take away a lot more things for the answer to be No to this question.
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The Lawrence is actually a top 3 QB if you really watch film crew is taking another week off unfortunately. Back to the safer Mahomes isn't human film analysis. Wise
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We need to investigate how rigorous Stanford Math. The idea that Fanduel is spending millions on modeling is either false or irrelevant. We can see their lines.
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A friend said to me all liquid markets are efficient because all opinions are priced in. But I am arguing they are exactly inefficient because all opinions are priced in.
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Patriots @ Broncos week 16 featuring two all timer coaches in a tank war will be best game of the season.
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The Bears had a borderline top 10 offense with a bottom 3 offensive roster, and there is suggestion out there they should draft a shorter, weaker arm, mechanically flawed Deshaun Watson to improve. How about their historically bad defense?
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334- 306- 12(52.1%) (+4.95 units) All pinnacle 1 unit spread and totals (No ML).
Last bet:
1. KC +2.5 -113
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@PlusEVAnalytics
@dfsx42
@losing_bettor
@GamblingDrama
@EPeterson1974
@d_feustel
i don't think einstein is proud of general relativity the way you and elihu are proud of Introductory To Stats day 1 distributions.
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brady is still the 🐐. it is close probably still the best to ever play regardless of accomplishments on average. he wins that game for either team in regulation at 43 .
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If you are KC, you have to play aggressive borderline Flores/Boyer level forcing defense. It has worked against scramblers like Hurts and Lamar before making them passer only. If it works, you likely win. If it doesn't, with Mahomes you still have a chance to overcome.
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I see a lot of people taking week 18 off saying it is too much unknowns. Does that make it a good or bad week to bet? The NFL market is very good at predicting outcomes, week 18 is probably the one week it isn't as good. There is opportunity in uncertainty.
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