EV Bets KS
@EVbetsKS
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+EV Sports Betting | NFL, CFB, NBA, MLB, NHL | I focus on getting CLV on every play | $150K Profit since Jan 23 (30%+ ROI) |
Prairie Village, KS
Joined January 2023
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What a damn season, finishing +500 u and +$50,000 on CFB alone!
PP wisely limited me before this weekend, otherwise woulda been another bloodbath.
23 slips played…
1️⃣ 25x 💰
1️⃣ 20x 💰
2️⃣ 10x 💰
1️⃣ 6x 💰
Time to 🔒 in on NFL. You ready?
Join 👇
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A buddy of mine created a gambling simulation workbook to depict how extreme variance can be. Using someone with a $5K bankroll placing only +2400, 4% EV type of slips, here are some stats...
Important thing to note: All bankrolls experience a losing streak of over 70 losses.
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Sometimes I gotta remind myself that we are living in a golden era of financial opportunity in this unique space, and I’m thankful to be a part of it.
I actually considered stepping away recently but the urge to find the next edge keeps me fueled.
Let’s crush 2024 together &
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2023 in the books 📚
Here’s how my year went in phases…
Jan: Thought I knew what EV betting was and wondered why I was hardly profitable taking -135 legs on DFS and putting together “EV slips”.
Q2: Joined the
@ValueBeaver
discord and became a sponge for all things devigging.
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This is either the dumbest or best idea ever.
We should have an annual summit or convention for EV Betting. I’d love to meet you all in person once a year.
Sounds like something
@AlexMonahan100
and Oddsjam could pull off?
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🚨NOVEMBER RECAP🚨
Incredible month overall with CFB & soccer leading the way! +$37.8K profit and 70% ROI without ever betting a slip over $166.
I really wanted to see a $50K month but the second I spoke it into existence I got absolutely pride-checked (see back half of month),
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The consistent X beef between EV named accounts vs shitcappers and scammers largely stems from EV folks not understanding or comprehending why these accounts get so many followers and have so much influence.
In the end, we have to realize we are in a space where a large amount
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Yesterday I surpassed 1,000 followers at the same time I surpassed 400 Units on the year.
I am so grateful to be a part of this EV betting community and have the smallest of voices in the industry. I have no idea on what my goal or long-term play is, and quite frankly idc.
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Holy cow...I just reached 2,000 followers last night! What a wild year its been and I can't give enough appreciation to all of the loyal followers on here. ✊
I know I've "sold out" a bit during football season by joining a Discord as a contributor, but I hope you all understand
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@dgh479
@barstoolsports
@_willcompton
@BussinWTB
we lookin at the same screenshots? lol the yardage markers clearly show otherwise bud.
btw im not complaining about refs. They did a good job that game. I just laugh at Bills fans who are.
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A couple lessons learned in 2023 largely stemmed from questioning how a book acts and thinking one level deeper...
1. Betting unders will get you limited super fast in long-shot markets (such as HRs, 2Bs, alts, ATTD)
Public: Let's not bet unders on -500 type of plays to retain
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Gambling Twitter is a good way of noticing how many more idiots there are than educated folks purely by looking at those MFers with 200K followers.
It just always blows my mind.
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One of my proudest moments of 2023 was helping onboard
@BreakinDa_Rules
to EV betting. Idk what my future holds, but seein how he operates fires me up for the potential of education in this space.
That being said..my 2024 goal: live more in the moment with the real shit around
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Gonna steal this from
@spartans0454
, but it takes a psycho to spend weeks pretty much talking to yourself on this platform, and that's where I was at early on in 2023.
It's you all who made this into somethin', and I'm so thankful for all of you!
Happy Thanksgiving! 🦃
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I believe that sports gambling has greatly enhanced my appreciation of leagues/sports I wasn’t all in on (NHL, CFB), yet has actually taken away from the viewing experience of leagues I have always loved like the NFL.
Anyone else?
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I had to prove it to myself I still knew how to EV bet without the DFS money printer going brrrr.
Nope, I don’t arb.
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+5897 CASH IT 💰 🤑
Anyone tail?! Post a screenshot on winnings if so, would love to see it!
Lottery ticket 🎫 play for the Traveler’s Championship this weekend.
Harman Top 20 is +210 on DK
Cole Top 30 is +230 on DK
Chez Top 40 is +150 on DK
3 leg parlay is +2457 on DK. We are getting +5879 🚀
#GamblingTwitter
#TravelersChampionship
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Double Double play to kick us off for tomorrow: Mookie and Peralta to double
Fair Value: +2002
Our Odds: +2591
EV: 28% 🚀
QK: .27U
#GamblingTwitter
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FD hasn’t released Top 30 or Top 40 so for now here are the Top 20 plays I see value in.
Round robining these plays!
Chez: 490 vs 400 on DK
Hall: 500 vs 360 on DK
Pendrith: 500 vs 280! on DK
Tarren: 650 vs 450 on DK
Carson: 650 vs 450 on DK
Hubbard: 360 vs 320 on DK
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First losing month since EV betting last January. Got absolutely WRECKED.
The unfortunate part? Idk what I learned.
I over bet some big spots on correlation plays I knew sites would nerf (they did), but fell flat on essentially all of them. Hit FD openers like crazy, got CLV,
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This is absolutely terrible advice if you are someone leaning on DFS Pick'Em apps to make the majority of your income.
Your New Year's Resolution should be to quit your 9-5, tell your boss they're not worth your time, and start Sports betting full time.
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Cashed a couple 25x and a couple of 10x ers but ngl still a little butt hurt about the four 5/6…
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Here is how I am using the 25% Same Game Parlay boost on FanDuel. Like if tailing!
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Fun month dabbling in a lot of different areas, apps, and sports. 42% ROI!
Most of my success came from the following:
Boom Fantasy - NFL Corro
PrizePicks - Soccer, NHL, NFL Corro
FanDuel - EV straight betting using
@oddsjam
Arb Tool, NFL openers, and plays generated from the
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Double Double (uncorrelated) Parlay of the Day❗️
Tatis and Luis Garcia to double.
Both are >5 % EV and this parlay is 15.2% EV to bet365 (and great against all books) 🚀
#GamblingTwitter
#PlayerPropBets
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🏈NFL SZN Player Prop Value Thread🏈
FanDuel:
Tony Pollard o6.5 Rush TDs (-118)🚀
DK: 8.5 (+120)
BetMGM: 8.5 (-110)
Ken Walker o6.5 Rush TDs (-112)
DK: 7.5 (-115)
BetMGM: 7.5 (-120)
Christian McCaffrey o6.5 Rush TDs (-118)
DK: 7.5 (-105)
BetMGM: 7.5 (-110)
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Playing Brandon Nimmo to Triple for my 50% profit boost on FD.
Monster EV here and I’m in the mood for a moonshot given the $10 max!
#GamblingTwitter
#PlayerPropBets
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Really like Bryan Woo today, and his odds are great for a ladder 🪜 bet!
bet365 has these at +160 for 7 Ks, +300 for 8 Ks and +550 for 9 Ks (36% diff)
Woo has a 14.6 K/9 in his MLB starts (tiny sample), but is a 12.7 K/9 guy in minors as well.
#GamblingTwitter
#PlayerPropBets
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Happy Flex 💪🏼 Friday everyone!
Here is a free slip because I love you all!
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Last month I was down hard after my first time being unprofitable.
Nice rebound month is a lesson for me and for all - don’t give up on your addiction.
In all seriousness tho, appreciate those who pushed me thru it with words of wisdom expecting a bounce back. 43% ROI and
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I will not go quietly into the night.
One last 25x before bed!
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Good to get back heavily into the straight betting game after I got hard limited on DFS.
Clean sweep 🧹 going 5-0 on NFL player prop nukes this week so keep those notis on!
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I’m in a good mood and want the vibes to stay hot.
If Matt Chapman (satan) doubles in one of his final 2 PAs, I am giving $100 to one lucky follower who retweets this.
#PositiveVibesOnly
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Alright gang, here’s my parlay play for this weekends
#ScottishOpen
!
Last week didn’t turn out, but lookin to get back on track and nail another 💥!
#GamblingTwitter
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Double Bag it 💼 💼 Play of the Day ❗️
Jazz and Volpe to swipe.
Fair: +1652
EV: 32.3% to bet365 🚀
#GamblingTwitter
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If Tyler Soderstrom drops dong tonight, I’m giving $50 to one lucky person who likes or retweets this
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This cracked my shit up. Last Friday, I got a $350 protected play, after hitting like 3 straight slips. 😂 😂
Cash it for $3500 💰
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Another double dong parlay with some EV 💣 💣
I have this at 3.5% to bet365 uncorrelated and a slight correlation added (which there is) juices it to double digits!
#GamblingTwitter
#PlayerPropBets
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A good start to the weekend. Russell Henley +4500 first round leader!
Anyone else tail?! Show me your slip if so!
#WyndhamChampionship
#GamblingTwitter
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Ya’ll ready for it?!?
Here’s this weekends golf parlay for the John Deere Classic!
Moore Top 40: +170 on DK
Hadley Top 30: +230 on DK
Chez Top 20: +225 on DK
Was between Chez and Glover. Hope it doesn’t bite me!
#GamblingTwitter
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EV bettors after a great weekend thinking about taxes for the first time...
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Damn, I can’t believe people found out the secret edge that you can stack overs on hitters with unders on pitchers.
Cracks me up when people get heated about others leaking the most 1st grade level correlations.
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Starting the 2024 off with my first soccer play (and cash) of the year! 💰 💰
What are you gonna do once football season ends??
Advice? join
@OxJuiced
below 👇 we dice up all sports 👨🍳
https://shorter
.at/bhloO
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I just got blocked by J Far cuz I exposed him. His response to me recommending a higher EV slip was “I want something to bet on tonight, I don’t care if theres more value out there” 🤡
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Make that 2 for 2 in my only pushed parlays on Twitter in back to back weeks! 🤑🤑
Last week: +5897 ✅
This week: +2120 ✅
I may be on to something 🧐 Let’s go!
#GamblingTwitter
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STL style ribs on the menu for today. Almost wrap time!
Best of luck this evening
@EvMassachusetts
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Kickin’ they door in, and stealin’ they shit on the way out!
Bang bang maybe the last 20x UDF slip for me! Got it in before the ban
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This EV convention ideas gonna turn into me kicking my family out of the house and having a 35 year old host a sleepover with a bunch of college kids isn’t it?
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There's so many boosts and promos out there that I am stressin' out.
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[1/8} Thread on Pitcher Ks and my methodology...
It all started back in early spring when I was getting absolutely RINSED betting "EV" plays on FanDuel like it was my job. After all, FD always seemed like the outlier, and there was amazing value to be had! Or so I thought...
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Double Double Play of the Day!
O’Hearn and Gunnar to Double +3225
Uncorrelated Fair Odds: +2837
Our Odds: +3225
EV: 11.9% 🚀
#GamblingTwitter
#PlayerPropBets
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Using my 50% boost on this longshot parlay. Super close yesterday to knockin one of these.
@BreakinDa_Rules
has been killin it with research in this negative correlation space - give the man a follow!
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Not even J Far can get me outta this NBA betting hole I’m in.
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Absolute smash play. All 3 of these WRs are projected 5.5 TDs on PrizePicks and 7 TDs on Sleeper.
@DMProps
doing some great work in this space.
#NFLSZN
#DFS
#GamblingTwitter
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Running back the 3 Player K prop parlay that hit yesterday for the Bet MGM Swing For the Fences promo reward (15% boost.
This play is 13.9% EV to FD who is sharp with their K lines (most odds gravitate to them).
Fair Odds (FD): +513
EV after boost: 28.5%
#PlayerPropBets
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Diving more into Hockey Corro stats, and loving some findings that challenge the overall idea of macro correlation events.
EX1: MacKinnon has gone over 4.5 SOG 14 times this season. Rantanen went 4+ SOG in only 6 of them.
EX2: MacKinnon and Rantanen have both gone under 4.5 &
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Joc Pederson to hit a Double.
Using one of my 25% boosts on this. 5.6% EV to bet365 prior to boost, and here is after boost:
Fair Odds: +365
Our Odds: +490
EV: 26.6% 🚀
#GamblingTwitter
#PlayerPropBets
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Tutu for TuK! Bangalanggg!
But honestly more happy I made my OG followers bank!
💰 🤑
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