Alfonso Straffon 🇨🇷🇺🇸🇲🇽
@astraffon
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Junk bond trader that once booked bets offshore. Just here to log news. Opinions, if any, are my own. And @wageraxess. Pura vida!
Charlotte, NC
Joined September 2009
Hey folks - A little announcement: I start working tomorrow. Without getting into the details I'll be involved in equity research. Tbd how active I can remain on the Twitter scene. It has been a fun ride, but it is time to put my head down and focus. Here is to a new challenge🍻.
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"Rupert Murdoch's News Corp and digital wagering pioneer Matthew Tripp approached bookmaker PointsBet with a $220 million-plus offer for its Australian division, but were rebuffed by the company's board.". PointsBet rejects $220m bid by Murdoch consortium
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Have a little cool story to share… hope you all don’t mind. A few years ago while in grad school I got to meet The Oracle of Omaha @WarrenBuffett. It was value investing what got me hooked on finance, and ultimately why I left the sports betting industry down in Costa Rica. .
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From FanDuel's investor day, here is what Conor Farren, Head of Trading, Risk, and Modeling, had to say about how the sausage gets made. Video link below (time mark) 1:17:15 and transcript snippets with personal highlights. slides in thread below.
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Hi peeps. am gonna be off X for a bit to refocus energy on some personal things. I wish you all a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. take care of your health. physically, mentally, and spiritually. hold your loved ones close and tell them so. reach out to friend.
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Alright peeps. a brief career update. Last week officially closed a chapter that began close to 4 yrs ago doing equity research over at Deutsche Bank. In the midst of the COVID it was an all around new challenge. but one that I embraced 100% because it was a unique.
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"Parlay Patz". Sports Bettor Charged With Threatening Tampa Bay Rays Players And Other Professional Athletes.
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"DraftKings originally purchased VSiN from the Musburger family for $70 million in 2021, a move it described at the time as one that would help it reach new customers and expand its brand". DraftKings Could Sell VSIN Back To Musburger: Report
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This @Cornell University paper just hit my tape. Beating the House: Identifying Inefficiencies in Sports Betting Markets.
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In Illinois. ☕️. ~6 of every 10 parlays played is at FD.~3 of every 10 parlays played is at DKNG.~1 of every 10 parlays played is at Others. ~7 of every 10 bets made at FD is a parlay.~5 of every 10 bets made at DKNG is a parlay.~3 of every 10 bets made at Others is a parlay
Day 8 @FDSportsbook premade SGP test. 0-7 so far. You gotta imagine that one will hit sometime right? Right? 0 for 7
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Shook the hand of the man who wrote the book gifted to me ~20 yrs ago while behind the counter at the Del Rey in CR. That is where it started for me folks. So thank you @RoxyLasVegas, Mike Rhoden, and to my offshore 'illegal bookmaker' friend who gave it to me!😉#G2E #FullCircle
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Shocking. Former Australian table tennis player allegedly won $438,000 in bets on fixed matches
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We all saw FanDuel recently increased their long-term structural gross hold expectations to 16%. But in the meantime, for those wondering how they currently stack up against the competition, let's take a closer look at IL, which not only breaks out by operator, but also provide
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The @PointsBetUSA risk room. A Behind the Scenes Look at How One Sportsbook Handles the Craziness of an NFL Sunday.
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"Sports betting is a market – much like the stock market. We need financial sector experts in charge of our state’s sports betting market — not the state lottery.". State lottery is wrong entity to supervise sports gambling.
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"For years now, anyone who watches sports on TV or the internet has been bombarded with advertisements that insist you aren’t really enjoying the game unless you are betting money on it.". That's a problem. ☕️. America’s Bad Bet on Sports Gambling.
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“I thought I would never see another Jackie Gaughan. I am glad he is here when I can enjoy his efforts.” @RoxyLasVegas on @DerekJStevens. @CircaSports 💪. Derek Stevens provides service with a smile in Las Vegas
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"In a close decision, the Court of Appeals determined fantasy sports is not actually gambling but rather a game of skill. ". Fantasy sports ekes out a win after NY high court legalizes contests
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"DraftKings alleges that Michael Hermalyn last week took the final steps in an elaborate plot to cripple its VIP operation days before the Super Bowl.". DraftKings Claims VIP Head Plotted To Steal Secrets For Fanatics Before Super Bowl
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Was talking to an old bookmaker friend yesterday from the tropics that saw the ridiculous 28% gross hold on parlays in IL. his words: "There is no such thing as risk management when you get to hold that." 😅.
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Here is an entertaining book some of you might enjoy. "The Smart Money" by @MichaelKonik. "Big Daddy" Matthews is said to be Billy Walters.
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Been in México taking care of my ole man that got ill. Just want to share that this week has been one of the hardest things I've had to do in my life. to reconcile a broken and distant past with the present and then to see what illness can do to our fragile bodies. 1/2.
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Sippin some coffee and just thinking it is ok I don't have a undergrad degree from a well-known school. turns out I had to pay my way through college and ended up booking bets behind the counter at the Hotel Del Rey & Casino, which happened to be at the time perhaps the. 1/4
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bAD BeAT rEFuNd pLEaSe. .
When the Chargers went up 27-0, a bettor bet $1.4 million on them to win the game to net $11,200. Jacksonville came back and won 31-30. @DKSportsbook has confirmed that this bet was indeed made.
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Being unemployed was not part of the plan. but it is Good Friday so am just going to go with today as having been a day off. Y'all have a nice weekend. Stay safe. Stay strong. Be kind. Peace.
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One thing I will say before going to bed tonight: next time a local gets pinched. or you read about the "dangers" of the offshore market. just remember what has happened these past few days in the stock market. it makes booking bets look like a boy scout picnic on a Sunday.
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May the odds be with you. ☕️. DraftKings fined $19K in Connecticut after online slot machine produces 0 wins in 20,000 spins.via @ConnPost.
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"We always listen to our customers. I mean FanDuel. ".
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Before going to bed tonight I will say a prayer for all the doctors, nurses, healthcare workers, etc. who are/will be working over time. they will be sacrificing a lot in looking out for us all. Good night and be safe peeps.🙏.
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“They’re price gouging their customers, to put it mildly, jamming parlays down their throats. ” -- Jeffrey Benson. @CircaSports' own @JeffreyBenson12 with a 🔥 quote in the @WSJ. Online Sports Bettors Lose More as Parlays Gain Popularity.
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So what motivates me to be as interested in this industry? Well there you have somewhat of an answer. At some point we moved to the US and I ended up getting three letters from a well-known school, but tbh that was a piece of cake. Degrees aren't everything in life.☕️. 4/4.
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So Ohio. mobile:. Gross handle $1,090.3 mm.less payouts $864.2 mm.less voids $20.4 mm.less promos $320.0 mm.- equals -.Net revenue -$114.3 mm. And that is all I have to say about that. Link here:
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Big personal announcement. I'm taking some time away from my job to figure out where I'm going to take my career. For the past 10 yrs I've been blessed to work in the world of investment management and, prior to that, was equally blessed to have worked eight years for bookmakers.
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Updated this table through today. just meant to be a relative view of things and nothing more.
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More importantly to witness the unconditional love that flows through the halls of a hospital amid all the pain, to see the hard work that nurses and doctors put in. This week I saw life in one of its purest ways, without the noise that many times obscures what truly matters. 2/2.
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Holy shit they took a nickel!.
And we’re live online in New York! First wager placed was $500 on Broncos +10.5 spread. A momentous day having previously processed the first regulated on-property bet in New York State. #weknowwhatittakes.
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Big uptick in parlays as a percentage of sports betting handle in NJ for September. 32.3% is the highest on record for them. Parlays were also a whopping 72.5% of gross revenue. Hold on parlays was 24.2% and 4.4% for everything else. Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk!
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Penn National Gaming to Buy Minority Stake in Barstool Sports
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Denver man restricted from sports betting sites after winning too much money.
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According to @GeoComply. "In just 12 hours, New York has become the top state for sports betting in the US!".
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Appreciate all the new follows. I'm just blasting out news I tend to find relevant. That would not be possible without the heavy lifting being done by many of the writers and journalists creating the stuff to begin with. So a big shout out to them always.
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Happy New Year folks! . 2020 brings about a lot of change for me on a professional level. will not be trading bonds in the foreseeable future as I'm going to try to make a more permanent move over to the sports betting landscape. Pass or fail, the real plunge starts today!.
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There you have it folks. Hope it will make you smile as it did me. Happy Holidays.
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Put together a high level view of sports betting handle, revenue, and tax figures since the repeal of PASPA. Includes NJ, MS, PA, DE, WV, RI. NV too. Best effort was made to ensure numbers are good, but if anyone out there wants to spot check I won't complain. #SportsBetting
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So how did @DraftKings get to a $2.7B Enterprise Value (EV)?. This exercise is not meant to dispute their valuation, but rather shed light as to how they possibly arrived at said number, while also highlighting the most important input variables that could impact their. .
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This is pretty significant if you ask me. certainly worth an early morning tweet. Congrats to the @DeckPrism team, @EdMillerPoker, @DavidowMatthew. One more (a big one) for the home team. 🇺🇸. Pinnacle boosts in-play offering with DeckPrism Sports deal
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Alright. wake up, no power in area. cold as f***. and I need coffee (badly). so it is time to go old school Costa Rica style and pull out the sock coffee maker and boil some water like momma taught me. 😤
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A 2020 study by 888. "New Jersey-based female bettors typically won more bets. Women saw average returns of almost 20% on their sports wagers while men lost an average of almost 5%.". Women Bettors Outperforming Men Via Less Emotional Wagering
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So with FanDuel in the books now. my tally says that for all of 2021 the big four US operators did about $4.5 billion in net revenue and -$1.9 billion EBITDA across their digital businesses. .
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“Betting markets are 100% noise, 0% signal.”. Enjoyed reading this☕️. Irrational gamblers fooled financial markets on election night.
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"The gang is alleged to have used "advanced technology" to gain an advantage of around 20 to 30 seconds and quickly place bets.". Welp. Interpol busts gang that hacked World Cup video feed to beat bookmakers
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Meanwhile in Australia. uncomfortable questions asked about limiting winners. uncomfortable answers.
And then BOOM!. Can’t help but feel the noise we have made has helped lead to this exchange. We are in play for national bookies betting obligation. This exchange is a bad look for the great game that can easily be fixed up by a NBBO.
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Brushing up my NJ sports betting spreadsheet this morning. Parlays have accounted for 20.5% of the ~$16.6B cumulative handle in NJ since inception. and 47.0% of the aggregate ~$1.1B in revenue. That is a 15.4% hold. Everything else has held 4.5%. Blends to 6.7%. ☕️
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"Effective immediately you are Ejected from all PlaySugarHouse Sportsbook retail locations. ". Jammin' kiosks. Meet the Yale med student who made thousands — and then was banned from sports betting sites
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In Spain. "Spanish bookmakers must therefore offer house limits to everyone, regardless of their perceived sharpness. The effect has been dramatic and instantaneous.". Spain Might Show What Happens When Sportsbooks Cannot Limit -.By @BradAllenNFL.
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Just going over some details of the PENN/Barstool investor call from a few days ago. this caught my eye:. 50 engineers to develop their app. expected to launch in August 2020. Fwiw I got a buddy down in the tropics who can roll-out of bed and do this with his eyes closed.
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"Lift the damn ban already, MLB. Why? I’ll tell you why. Because the Cubs are going to have a DraftKings sportsbook and betting windows at Wrigley Field, that’s why.". Whom is baseball kidding? It’s time to lift the ban and give Pete Rose his due
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$PENN. Penn National Gaming CEO: Barstool Sportsbook app to be in every state where sports betting legal in 2021
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New York. "The governor. will make the revenue-generating measure a central part of his policy proposals to be laid out in next week’s State of the State address.". Cuomo to fully embrace mobile sports betting in State of the State address
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Had someone DM me about some good sports betting books. I'll drop one title and pass on to whoever wants to go next with another. We can all circle back and add more. Plenty of good ones out there. Happy to start in no particular order with. "Conquering Risk" by Elihu Feustel
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This was a first for me folks. Hard to fit eight years into an hour, but did my best to give a high level glimpse of my time in the business. Hopefully you will understand how the offshore industry has been a lifeline for many of us. one I am very thankful for and proud of.
Episode 25 up where @spanky interviews former Costa Rican Bookmaker @astraffon . Soundcloud:. Apple:.
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"DraftKings CEO Jason Robins angers many in the industry with comments against for-profit players.". It’s shun and games in sports betting
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"Australians have an innate sense of fairness almost built-in, and what the bookies do, what bet365 does is not fair. " . In this sports betting company, the winners are called 'problem customers' via @abcnews.
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ESPN Said to Be Near Large New Partnership With DraftKings
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Barstool Sportsbook Facing Backlash For Banning User From Betting On Promotions, Claiming ‘Non-Recreational Betting Tendencies’
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@JoeBrunoWSOC9 Joe. the ~$105M is a gross revenue number and NOT what people actually lost. you have to work out the impact of the promos. here is a simplified example to explain the difference between gross and net revenue.
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Via @SoberLook. Morgan Stanley estimates US sports betting and igaming revenue combined will total $12B by 2025, compared to <$1.5B in 2019.
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It would look a little like this @MarketAxess . I've already called it WagerAxess for you!
Hey @MarketAxess. Any chance you want to replicate the inquiry-based platform we get in the bond world to the sports betting world? There might be something there. we should chat.
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Gem of a pic here. That was me ~19 yrs old. was helping run a retail book in San Jose, Costa Rica. Man I was pale and thin! . A testament of working 45 hr weeks and studying chemistry at the time in college. My handwriting didn't do those boards any justice! Fun gig.
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Found my a.m.☕️read here. "This market is rife with all these inefficiencies that have been solved already in every other industry.” @a_kane47. Philly tech start-up Sporttrade has a new model for sports betting, and it looks a lot like a stock exchange
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Meanwhile in IA Mattress Mack's Astros bet seems to have wiped out all the positive revenue BetFred and Unibet had accumulated since going live in that particular state.
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One thing that sticks out in the @DraftKings' investor presentation is that that $1.2B in EBITDA on $3.7B of revenue represents ~32% margin. Am I the only that thinks that is a bit aggressive? Some Euro bookmakers run at about 20%.
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Some stellar guests here including @spanky, @JayKornegay, an 'Uncle Tony' from Vegas, a 'Ray Marino' from Costa Rica, @RufusPeabody, @capjack2000, Will Hill's @JoeAsher. The World of Sports Betting in a World Without Sports .By @GregBishopSI.
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"While sportsbooks are businesses and should be relatively free to operate as they see fit, a license to take bets is a privilege, not a right, and it comes with conditions. Legalized sports betting was meant to protect consumers — aren't winners consumers, too?".
If people can't bet, why did we legalize sports betting? Some thoughts @Covers: .
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Raise your hand if you spent time here? 🙋♂️. "has operated one of the world's largest sports betting forums since 1995. ". $2.4M deal. Overdrive Marketing Inc. Acquires Leading U.S. Sports Betting Brand
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Welp. FanDuel-Parent Profit Beats, Won’t Match DraftKings Surcharge
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A paper on Billy Walters. Have not read, but raise your hand if you booked Billy (or one of his beards)? I see some of those hands going up. ✋. Know When to Hold ‘Em, Know When to Run: The Ballad of Billy Walters.Tennessee Journal of Law and Policy, 2020.
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$DKNG. "All DraftKings Sportsbook customers with an account balance greater than $0.00 will be able to watch live games from the company’s mobile platform.". DraftKings acquires Bundesliga live streaming rights in US
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Hearing @DeckPrism has obtained their first license in the state of Colorado. Big congrats to @EdMillerPoker, @DavidowMatthew and their entire team. 👍. This was today's full agenda for reference.
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Why is something called 'Novig' and yet the lines I see have 'vig'? What am I missing here?
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DKNG down 7% pre-market. in a nutshell, as my friends over at Deutsche Bank pointed out, it becomes harder for investors to underwrite any future results when a single quarter has basically wiped out ~46% of this year's previous EBITDA guide. looking forward, and
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Think I'm gonna need a hat next time to properly hang with @DavidPurdum and @RoxyLasVegas! Maybe @SportsbkConsig or @Schuetzinc can hook me up with one of theirs. Fun times gentlemen.
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Hey @JeffreyBenson12. this bad boy came in the mail today. Thank you for the @CircaSports gift!
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So New Jersey record handle of $668M tops the Nevada record of ~$615M set last November. .
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Had not updated this table and charts in a while. Illinois parlays splits between DKNG, FD, and everyone else. a visual thread. ~5 out of every 10 parlays played in IL is at FD.~4 out every 10 parlays played in IL is at DKNG.~1 out every 10 parlays played in IL is at Others
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From the book Gambling Wizards, by Richard Munchkin (@RWM21). From his interview with Stan Tomchin, who recently passed. RIP. Link to the book can be found here. 👇.
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. but I don't think they could fully grasp what it meant to me. And to them, and perhaps some of you, putting on a pair of clean socks is trivial. But I will never forget those times. and this story about socks. 6/6
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So @capjack2000 and I had the opportunity today to speak to a class of econ students at @WakeForest, specifically ECN395: Prediction Markets. Was fun. Like to think we gave some alternative views on the sports betting industry. 😉. Thanks to Prof. Koleman Strumpf for having us.
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Great piece by @DavidPurdum where he helps immortalize some American sports betting culture: Parlay cards. 'I thought I was Rain Man:' The dying art of the parlay card wiseguy .
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Here is link to that @60Minutes episode that aired tonight on sports betting. maybe I'm wrong but am inclined to think 'CYA' counter moves will be on the rise as some folks start feeling a bit 'uncomfortable'. guess if the shoe fits you know who are.
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On way to Wake Forest to be a guest speaker in a Prediction Markets class. Today's topic will be sports betting. I assure you they will get the unabridged version. #RealBookmakers.
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While many are happy to celebrate 3 yrs since PASPA was repealed, it is also a reminder to many bookmakers of all the years they were made out to be the 'bad guys'. Only to see now a bunch of newbs do victory laps. And still get called the 'bad guys'. Smh. #ProudlyMadeOffshore 🇨🇷.
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