SigmaSquirrel
@SquirrelSigma
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Helping recreational bettors crack the code. Board member @bettorsvoice . Advisor to @optimal_bets . @Bet_Bash speaker. "I post suggestions, you make decisions."
Chicago
Joined May 2021
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Pinned Tweet
It was a honor and a privilege to present Sports Betting 101 at this year's
@bet_bash
!
For a deeper dive, check out my 10-part series, written for the aspiring rec-sharp bettor!
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@ButlerBets
If all operators follow, it means IL bettors will effectively being dealt -125/-125 pricing after this double taxation
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Kudos to
@MassGamingComm
for providing equal opportunity to both sides of the counter in today's meeting. It was balanced and all sides had their time. They are leading the country in regulating this rapidly evolving market.
So proud to be involved with
@bettorsvoice
and their
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(1/3) In today's
@bettorsvoice
presentation, I showed a copy of an email I received from an *unnamed* retail book (we all know these emails, right?) informing me that I was not longer welcome in their store.
Most regulators don't understand that this is happening, or why. But
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I'm excited to be leading the Sports Betting 101 seminar at
@bet_bash
on August 7th!
If you’re new to sports betting, or want to build on your knowledge of sports betting fundamentals, this is the session! We'll be covering major betting markets, how sports books set their
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"I also sensed that the operators did not have much respect for bettors. They also did not seem to be in touch with their customers other than as a data point. And they seemed to feel they were the victims by even having to be at this [
@MassGamingComm
] meeting."
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➡️ You 100% do NOT want to miss today's
@MassGamingComm
public meeting, which kicks off in 30 minutes.
@bettorsvoice
CEO
@Schuetzinc
has been invited to give comment on unfair player limitation practices. Will the operators show up this time?
PLEASE repost/retweet to your
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@ButlerBets
All operators will quickly follow. This is the Checked Bag Fee of mobile sportsbetting.
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Finally, on today's call we concluded with a number of regulators describing that "they're not getting any/many complaints by customers about being limited."
I jokingly replied that we can help change that :)
If we don't speak up, regulators won't have the full picture.
If
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@RufusPeabody
I could be wrong, but I don’t believe that DK pays gaming tax on profits generated outside of gaming activities (at least in IL). If they went the -112/-112 route, they’d increase gaming profits and thus have to pay tax on these elevated profits. If they go the surcharge route,
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Thank you to Tom Sage and the SBRA for inviting
@bettorsvoice
to speak with your membership.
@spanky
@Schuetzinc
and the team at ABV is working hard to give the American bettor a seat at the table.
⬇️Become a member today!⬇️
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I'll be speaking to over 80 regulator members of the Sports Betting Regulators Association this Friday on behalf of
@bettorsvoice
. The topic: Sports Betting 101 for Regulators.
The topics of player limits and opaque T&C actions are going to continue to gain momentum across the
This debate isn’t over in Massachusetts, as the MGC made clear. One big question is if other regulators who are watching decide they need to get in the game as well, or if they are content to let the MGC do the heavy lifting.
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Hard Rock launched mobile betting in IL today.
I look forward to being able to bet them for approximately 2 weeks.
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.
@MassGamingComm
from
@Schuetzinc
"Operators are no longer in the risk management business. They're in the risk avoidance business."
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We agree. And we’re doing something about it.
Become a member, spread the word.
It should be illegal for books to limit winning players.
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@bet_bash
is not just for the pros! This community welcomes bettors of all experience levels with open arms. You will truly build incredible friendships and take your game to the next level.
Start making plans to attend BB5!
In listening to all the feedback and all the reviews and all the recaps, it finally dawned on me that BetBash does way more than help people advance their careers.
BetBash builds life long friendships and unforgettable memories built around our common sports betting interest.
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.
@MassGamingComm
Commissioner O'Brien pointedly challenging operators on stake factoring.
"Why don't you use this information from sharp bettors to adjust your lines?"
"You have your cake and eat it too." "[With limits] you get the information and you block the risk."
🎯👏
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🔥The team at
@bettorsvoice
is making it happen this week!
A big thank you to
@spanky
and
@Schuetzinc
for the incredible amount of work they're doing to advocate for a fair deal to the betting public.
⬇️Not a member?⬇️
Big week for
@bettorsvoice
…
On Wednesday, Richard Schuetz (
@Schuetzinc
) will be speaking at the
@MassGamingComm
Public Hearing on Sports Betting Limits.
On Friday, Adam Robinson (
@SquirrelSigma
) will be presenting a Sports Betting 101 seminar for the SBRA to over 60
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🎙️💪American Bettors' Voice is working hard to give sports bettors in the US a seat at the regulatory table.
⬇️ Become a member today! ⬇️
@spanky
@Schuetzinc
@bettorsvoice
We’re starting to get the right people to listen to us at
@bettorsvoice
.
My hope is to have posted house limits for sport and bet type become an industry standard across all regulated sportsbooks in the United States.
The predatory abuse of these privileged licenses is a thing
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.
@MassGamingComm
more live updates:
-
@davehill77
Brings up THE topic: CLV. "Operators can identify a winning bettor in fewer than 50 bets of less than $100 each,
- "If you get profiled as being a winning better, you're not going to be invited to be a part of the VIP program."
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If Pete Rose had employed an interpreter, he’d be in the Hall of Fame.
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@FezzikSports
Show me a government subsidy and I'll show you something that costs more than it otherwise would.
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My friend got married yesterday. This prop card started circulating to guests about an hour before the ceremony. 😂
Over 50 props, juice was a bit high. The book made money.
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It's an honor to be working with this legendary team. 🙏
@Schuetzinc
@spanky
and the
@bettorsvoice
Board for all that you're doing for this industry. Next stop: ➡️Posted Bet Limits⬅️
On behalf of the team
@bettorsvoice
, I am thrilled to announce Adam Robinson (
@squirrelsigma
) is joining our all-volunteer Board.
Adam brings 28 yrs of experience scaling high-growth technology companies and leading legislative outreach efforts to further ABV’s mission and vision
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And here’s
@JeffreyBenson12
previewing this year’s Halloween costume.
#CircaSurvivor
2020
1,390 total entries
$1,390,000 prize
675 entries survive Week 3
Contest goes the distance
35 winners go 18-0
#CircaSurvivor
2024
14,266 total entries
$14,266,000 prize
642 entries survive Week 3
???
???
#CircaSurvivor
🏈🏆
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Got in the Uber at McCarran and his stereo showed “Audio Off” and at first glance I thought it said CirclesOff and that’s how I know it’s
@bet_bash
time.
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@JeffreyBenson12
Seeing ads for
@CircaSports
on TV during the CFB warms my heart 👏
This states needs a real Sportsbook!
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This was me, growing up in Atlanta and turning on WGN as soon as I got home. Ryno was my guy.
The official broadcast team of “I just got out of school and now I’m gonna watch some fucking baseball
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4K
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Great take
@robmiech
. Speaking as Illinois rec bettor, I can tell you with 100% certainty that my $DKNG handle will go to zero Jan 1 2025, as will the handle of everyone in my network with whom I've spoken about this policy.
@Schuetzinc
and
@bettorsvoice
have this exactly right.
Tough 1-2 Punch for Illinois Sports Betting
Operator tax doubles, then a winning-ticket tax? Hardly honorable, says
@spshoot
@JeffreyBenson12
@Rex_Beyers
It's why
@spanky
/ Richard Schuetz formed ABV. Mass, btw, is a model. My latest for
@suntimes_sports
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And
@bettorsvoice
is going LIVE with the Sports Betting Regulators Association (SBRA) in five minutes to talk Sports Betting 101 for Regulators.
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(update: I should just reverse my Mac auto-correct from "better" to "bettor" at this point in my life)
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Preach
@joebrennanjr
🙌
My man
@joebrennanjr
from
@primesportsbook
educating the
@MassGamingComm
regulators on what real bookmaking is!
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(3/3) Rounding our the discussion of "Ban or Bankrupt," we discussed the reverse stake-factoring that happens with bettors who are...not as skilled.
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@PiskyPositivo
@BenGodfather
Enjoyed having dinner with you two fine gents at the HoF awards. Still kinda disappointed we didn't have to break up a fight.
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This game was WILD. Two blocked punts, one for a TD; LV had 4 opportunities to end the game on the final Syracuse drive and literally dropped two interceptions. 85 points scored. Syracuse ran over 90 plays in the game.
This one had everything except UNLV covering -4 😅
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@fairplaygov
If operators thought that argument would hold water, they would have made it already instead of citing “trade secrets” being at risk.
“It’s easy - we simply limit the winners, and raise limits for the losers!” is not a trade secret. It’s literally the business model. And it’s
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(2/3) We also discussed the concept of "Stake Factoring," and how that's implemented.
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.
@MurgesJohn
😭😭
I’m in a fetal crouch after reading this.
LFG Caleb, this city needs some stable leadership.
Here is a list of the starting quarterbacks for the Chicago Bears, organized by era:
### 1920s-1940s:
1. **1920s:**
- Dutch Sternaman
- Pard Pearce
- Joey Sternaman
- Paddy Driscoll
- Carl Brumbaugh
2. **1930s:**
- Bernie Masterson
- Keith Molesworth
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@capjack2000
IL bettors (🙋♂️) are effectively being dealt -125/-125 on mains starting Jan 1.
It's going to make being rec-sharp in IL just about impossible through regulated markets.
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@MrLiimited
Trading touts are worse than sports touts, change my mind.
That said...technical analysis is a thing, and it is constructive because 1) psychology is powerful and 2) so many professionals use technical signals in their algos. So these price and volume indicators do move markets
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@BradleyTabbitha
Freemont Street relay races it is then. Heart Attack Grill and back under 2:00 and you win a free survivor entry.
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Offshore operators are meeting the huge demand in the market created by the current US retail “ban or bankrupt model,” siphoning off your state’s GGR.
For any regulator wondering if “limiting players” is a thing, this book is quite literally marketing direct to the stake
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Today is the first time I ever asked, “Hey, do you guys want to watch the Massachusetts Gaming Commission livestream today?” and got takers.
Illinois bettors 🙋♂️are watching this story play out in Massachusetts with real interest.
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🍿
This case settles -650
There is little downside for Flutter to just pay this man to go away quietly. He has them dead to rights.
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@fairplaygov
He might as well have said, "It doesn't actually matter if you win money. We know if you are likely a long-run winner. If you fall in that bucket, adios."
Amazing.
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@fairplaygov
@bettorsvoice
There were two topics addressed in Q&A - Limits and Obvious Errors.
My suggestion to them was:
- Request a full list of limited bettors over the last 36 months with a "CLV" column
- Request a full list of VIP/Concierge/RG customers over the last 36 months with a "CLV" column
-
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@capjack2000
I say this assuming all other operators will follow $DKNG lead here. It's the Checked Bag Fee of mobile sportbooks.
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@fairplaygov
@PlusEVAnalytics
It's what all of us know, but nobody has said outloud. It's the "What do you mean Nixon recorded all of his meetings?" moment
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Flying to Las Vegas for an HR technology conference is like flying to St. Louis to go gambling.
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A wonderful summary of today’s
@MassGamingComm
meeting from writer and
@bettorsvoice
Board member
@EricRaskin
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@NFL_Totals
If you're over the age of 10 and ride a bike on the sidewalk in Chicago, odds on someone clotheslining you are 3-1. Odds on locals cheering are PK.
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@fraac1
The first step is to get posted bet limits for menu items, and end the practice of stake-factoring bettors who show an ounce of competence.
That would have a downstream effect of forcing retailers to sharpen their lines and be actual bookmakers. Does that make it tougher on
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I wake up at 5am and fire bets for an hour riding my Peloton. It's
#pelotonbets
They're like
#walkingbets
, but with GenX rizz and dad vibes and workout clothes I ordered on Amazon for $12, all while four kids, two cats and a dog repeatedly interrupt me asking for breakfast.
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@DoctorRazzWSOP
@vangdeli
@bet_bash
We got to "how to build a synthetic market" and chop a hold. That's about as far as I went.
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Bets were graded and Venmo’d out after the band’s first set break.
(o/u on first set break was 55 minutes. The over won)
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@aluckyaday
@Jess8096
@fraac1
Having a license is a privilege. The great thing about having regulators is that the regulators can force operators to do what’s right for the consumer.
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@aluckyaday
@fraac1
No disagreement there. But the fact that a rec bettor can bet into a giant menu of horrible bets, somehow eventually buck the odds and learn to be semi-sharp…then get kicked out with a losing P&L because the book saw a trend of suddenly positive CLV bets is 1) unfair and 2) bad
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@MrLiimited
Another nice feature of trading equities/options is that you can effectively sell your bet back if the line moves against you. Risk management is so much cleaner.
Selling options premium when the $VIX is over 30 is the equivalent of getting vig-free pricing on a sports bet.
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@JoeyKnish22
If Jayden Daniels was the Bears top pick, we’d be talking about Caleb Williams slaying it in D.C.
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See, the secret is to post content that asks people to do stuff while they wait for injury reports Friday afternoon 😇
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CZRs currently hanging
@ChicagoBears
o9 season wins at +115.
Rest of the market is in the o8.5/-150 neighborhood.
Acknowledging that I 100% have an irrational Bears bias, I still think this is a value bet .
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@abusacca
Congrats to you and the team on the AZ win. I look forward to meeting you this week.
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@skylanderr5
@HulkHogan
@LilJon
Full sarcasm post. I agree with you 100%. I’m incredibly frustrated by the choices we have in this election, and this cycle has been devoid of serious discussion about policies affecting any of the big issues.
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@sethlblevins
@DustinGouker
Does this mean BetRivers will let me get more than $.93 down on a player prop? Sweet!
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@fairplaygov
100% agree on the stall. I think we'd be happy to see posted bet min/maxes for all players even if operators needed time to implement that change; i.e. "learn how to operate a book like a book"
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@round2vsnichols
@fairplaygov
@PlusEVAnalytics
Personal take here: I believe we'll see pro-bettor changes to player limit policies within the next 12 months in Massachusetts, most likely requiring posted limits on each menu item that apply to all bettors equally.
That would be 1) fair to players, 2) fair to books, 3) good
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@fairplaygov
@bettormetrics
@BettingStartups
Selling risk management software to risk managers.
Selling software to engineering departments.
Selling sales productivity software to sales departments.
Selling HR productivity software to HR departments.
All requires the person running the department to want to actually be
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@BradleyTabbitha
One of my key exec’s name is Anil and I cannot even begin to tell you how many times autocorrect has ruined my day.
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Other two times in history the $VIX hit this level: the first days of the Covid lockdown, and the 2008 financial crisis.
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@BetLocksmith
If they have identical edges and identical returns, I tail the bettor with the shortest odds.
If the next bet's true odds are identical, I'm tailing capper B because they're currently clustering around their natural win rate, and capper A is due for reversion. But that's
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@BradleyTabbitha
Praying that somewhere in your corner of IL is a company who will deliver Cheez-Its in 15-ish minutes. If not let’s GoFundMe a startup.
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@billsperos
@MassGamingComm
There was real breaking news today at this hearing. Even if that news was just public admission of what everyone in this industry knows to be true.
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@JoeyKnish22
As a native Chicagoan who’s watched this team start what’s feels like 6,000 different quarterbacks over the last 30 years, I think the proper conclusion is the following:
It literally doesn’t matter who they draft at QB. They will either F up the offensive scheme, pooch the QB
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@chinamaniac
@bet_bash
🙋♂️ Running the 101 seminar on Wednesday. Look forward to meeting you!
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Questions that need to be asked of operators
@MassGamingComm
:
- Do you consider long-run winning bettors to be advantage players? In your opinion, is being an advantage player the only way for a consumer to win over the long run?
- Do you consider sharp recreational bettors to
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@aluckyaday
@fraac1
And it’s not just about limits. That happened to be today’s topic.
ABV’s platform is much broader than that
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(Before comments fly in that “this book is not available in the US, we all know the workarounds. Come on.)
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@fairplaygov
@bettorsvoice
@spanky
The SBRA indicated they are going to work on a recommended, unified definition of Obvious/Palpable errors. Which is fantastic.
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