Jack Peacock
@JackSurvation
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Researcher @Survation , all views my own.
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Our latest MRP shows the Conservatives are in deep trouble in their heartlands. They are set to hold on to just 13 out of 52 seats in the Blue Wall. Across these seats their vote share is down by an average of 23%.
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When he called the election, Sunak said ""On 5 July either Keir Starmer or I will be prime minister." At the time, the Labour leader had a 10 point advantage on the below question. Five weeks later and his lead has extended to 20 points. This message has been a failure.
Best PM:
Rishi Sunak: 24% (-3)
Keir Starmer: 45% (+1)
Don’t know: 31% (+2)
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This is the first time Labour have led the SNP since the party was nearly wiped out in 2015. Labour looks set to regain a significant foothold in Scotland.
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These are the seats with a new leader in our final MRP projection vs. the 28th June - a lot of toss-ups.
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The Conservative vote is incredibly fractured. They are retaining fewer than half of their 2019 voters, and losing more to Reform than Labour (undecided included).
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Sorry to keep you waiting:
NEW MRP: Labour 99% Certain To Win More Seats Than in 1997
Labour on Course to Win 484 seats.
The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are in a close race to form the official opposition.
Probabilistic seat count:
LAB 484
CON 64
LD 61
SNP 10
RFM 7
PC 3
GRN 3
34,558 interviews
559
1K
4K
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The Conservatives hold 31 of the North West’s 72 contested constituencies. Our most recent projection had them losing every seat.
In this article,
@JackSurvation
looks into our most recent MRP projections for the North West.
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These questions, like most agree/disagree statements, suffer from:
1. Acquiescence bias. Research shows people are far more likely to agree than disagree.
2. Not presenting both sides of the argument.
You will find some agreement with almost any statement framed this way. /1
Harrowing & worrying
@wethinkpolling
findings. A third of public willing to countenance violence towards refugees/migrants if asked like this. Question framing gives a reason; several respondents could also endorse anti-violence norms too. This shows risk of dehumanising hatred
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Many were concerned that MRPs systematically underestimated the Liberal Democrats, but during the election campaign we have picked up sharp, concentrated increases in support despite them not significantly increasing their national vote share.
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Latest from me which looks at perceptions of the main parties on tax. Most interestingly imo, 2019 Conservatives associate the party more with high taxation (46%) than low taxation (41%). The Conservatives are not viewed as a low tax party.
New 12,000 sample MRP for the UK Spirits Alliance finds the public associate the Conservative party with high taxation and believe taxes would be lower under a Labour government.
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Lib Dems on 43 seats with a chance to gain more. They have a 42% chance of winning in Harpenden, 39% chance in Mid Dunbartonshire, 38% chance in Sutton and Cheam, and a 35% chance in Hazel Grove.
NEW: Our first MRP of the 2024 General Election
Labour Set for Record Breaking Majority
LAB 487
CON 71
LD 43
SNP 26
RFM 3
PC 2
30,044 interviews conducted online and on the phone
Fwk 22 May - 2 June
Conducted on behalf of
@BestForBritain
@VasilSurvation
looks at the findings
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A point made by
@drjennings
at the BPC event on Wednesday: we are yet to properly consider what would happen to our political system if forecasts (nowcasts) such as this were to play out.
MODEL UPDATE | How would the UK vote if the election was held today?
LAB: 455 MPs (+255)
CON: 86 (-286)
LDEM: 65 (+57)
SNP: 20 (-28)
PC: 3 (+1)
GRN: 1 (-)
REF: 1 (+1)
via Britain Predicts, 07 Jun
See the breakdown seat to seat:
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Besides the crassness of this ad, it seems nonsensical for Labour to divert attention from issues related to the cost of living. Nationally, voters consistently (& by a large margin) identify the real terms decline in living standards and incomes as their most pressing concern
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A by-election in Blackpool South would be contested on existing boundaries, but the average of our three most recent MRP estimates for Blackpool South on new boundaries are:
LAB 48% (+9)
CON 28% (-19)
LD 7% (+4)
GRN 2% (nc)
RFM 7% (+2 Brexit Party)
OTH 2% (+1)
LAB gain from CON
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That's not a bad call. Our MRP modelling for East Kilbride and Stathaven (new boundaries) has the Conservatives in the mid teens but not much between SNP/Lab
Do we reckon Scottish Labour refused to take them? I don't see the sense in SNP > Con for her constituency
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We should be incredibly careful when extrapolating from local elections to general elections. Expect reactionary takes on Friday, but the fundamentals underlying Labour’s lead will be unchanged. [1/6]
How much can tomorrow’s elections tell us about the national picture?
@JackSurvation
looks into the issues driving Labour’s polling lead.
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A reduction in the rate of CPI inflation is good news, but the Government shouldn't expect an outpouring of adoration seeing as 1) people conflate reducing inflation with reducing price levels and; 2) many (rightly) identify meeting the 2% target as the responsibility of the BOE
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Here's me looking at some polling in what I wanted to unnecessarily call the 'Rural Rampart'
NEW: The Conservatives lead Labour by just +5% in England’s 100 most rural constituencies. In the article below,
@JackSurvation
covers the findings from our polling of rural England.
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This includes Lib Dem target seats, like Hazel Grove, where the party trailed Labour in earlier projections, but now support for Labour has declined as the Lib Dems emerge as the anti-Conservative vote.
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Worth remembering that Labour have fallen ~5 points in the polls over the past 5 weeks. Their lead over the Conservatives is effectively unchanged because the latter have fallen to a historic low.
NEW Survation Telephone Tracker for
@GMB
- Poll 3/4
LAB 41% (-)
CON 18% (-2)
REF 14% (-1)
LD 12% (-)
GRE 5% (-1)
SNP 2% (nc)
OTH 7% (+2)
F/w 21st - 25th June. Changes vs. 19th June 2024.
@JackSurvation
explores the findings below:
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Latest from me which looks at Reform UK’s chances in the election. Reform currently attracts one in six 2019 Conservatives and our March MRP showed them performing best where the Conservatives are currently set to lose the most votes.
How many seats will Reform UK win in the general election?
@JackSurvation
evaluates their chances below.
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You can read a fuller explanation of this here:
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I agree with points one and two, but looking at the seats/voters the Lib Dems won, it was unlikely their record in the Coalition would have hurt them - besides on trust (i.e. tuition fees). As a result , it's also very unlikely the party opposes the new Government from the left.
Did the Lib Dems run the smartest campaign of the General Election?
- Won 72 seats, only came second in 27.
- Managed to dodge awkward headlines about the Post Office scandal, despite Ed Davey being a relevant minister at the time.
– Managed to put a lot of distance between
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If Farage is announcing his candidacy, the safest bet would be Clacton. Survation's constituency poll from January showed it would be winnable.
When presented with Farage as the Reform UK candidate, the party went from splitting the Conservative vote to winning the seat. Replacing Anthony Mack with Nigel Farage saw twice the number of Conservatives and Leavers express the intention to vote for Reform UK.
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Unfortunately, this is really poor quality work on such a contentious issue.
For more on agree/disagree questions, see: /2
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Ipsos call 275 seats 'strong Labour'. There are only two seats in Britain they call 'strong Conservative' (Maldon and North Dorset) - the same number as called 'strong Reform' (Clacton and Ashfield).
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While this poll shows Sunak holding onto his seat, this represents a 17.6 point swing to Labour, with Sunak’s share of the vote declining by 24%. Richmond (Yorks), the new seat’s predecessor, returned a Conservative MP in every election since 1910.
NEW Constituency Poll in Richmond and Northallerton for
@38degrees
CON 39% (-24)
LAB 28% (+12)
REF 18% (new)
LD 9% (-3)
GRE 4% (-)
OTH 3% (-1)
F/w 12th - 21st June. Changes vs. Notional 2019 result
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Latest from Survation. Six days to go.
NEW: Penultimate MRP Update.
Labour on Course to Win 470 Seats and Become the Largest Party in Scotland.
Probabilistic seat count:
LAB 470
CON 85
LD 56
SNP 12
RFM 4
PC 3
GRN 2
23,364 interviews conducted online and on the telephone
Fwk 15th - 27th June
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Below is leader favourability over the past four weeks. There is no great enthusiasm for Starmer personally, but relatively he is much more popular than Suank. Also note Farage’s sustained lead over Sunak. The PM is only +1 point more favourable than Farage among 2019 Con voters.
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Strategy aside, this is an excellent decision as it should allow me to go on my confidently booked March/April holiday
BREAKING: Rishi Sunak indicates no May election
Says that the second half of the year is his "working assumption" for polling day
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The Conservatives have spent two years looking for political solutions to policy failures
Good Q. For me this is because people are voting on the fundamentals, not the campaigns or the personalities. And the key fundamentals - cost of living (at least how it’s felt by voters), NHS waiting lists, immigration haven’t changed so why would the polls?
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Political commentary needs the polls to narrow
Labour may fail to grab target seats as young voters turn away over Gaza and climate
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The Liberal Democrats are nowhere close to the 23% they won in 2010, but will likely win approximately the same number of seats on half the number of votes.
Final Survation Poll of the 2024 General Election:
18 point Labour lead
Labour: 37.6%
Conservative: 19.9%
Reform UK: 17.0%
Liberal Democrats: 12.1%
Green Party: 7.2%
Scottish National Party: 3.0%
Plaid Cymru: 0.6%
Other: 2.4%
Based on telephone interviews of 1,679 respondents
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For those thinking of instigating emergency measures over the coming days...
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Being from Stockport makes me biassed, but there is plenty going on in the North West which goes far beyond Labour winning back the red wall seats it lost in 2019.
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1. The only correct take is that these have been a terrible set of local elections for the Conservatives.
2. The drivers of Labour's lead are unchanged. Even if the Conservatives only lost 200 councillors, this would not have made up for a 28 point deficit on the NHS.
The party leads the Conservatives on every major policy area except for defence. [2/6]
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Great to chat with
@mollyblackall
about the Labour lead and the picture in Scotland
NEW POD:
@mollyblackall
chats to
@paulwaugh
@Scarlett__Mag
&
@JackSurvation
about exactly what’s happening to Labour’s lead in the polls. Check it out here:
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Great article. It's difficult to segment the population when there is such uniformity in public opinion on key issues; 'National Swing Man' (
@mattholehouse
) really is apt
In my column in today’s paper, I’ve written about how British politics has lost its sense of a project and of a people:
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Periodic reminder that:
1) People conflate a decline in inflation with declining price levels.
2) People think about the economy in nominal terms, and goods are much more expensive than they were three years ago.
It is unlikely this cuts through as 'the plan is working'.
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Our March MRP had Reform winning zero seats but placed them second in 7 (Barnsley South, Easington, Hartlepool, Barnsley North, South Shields, Rhondda and Ogmore, Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney), although all 7 were predicted to be comfortable Labour victories.
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Great to see Survation's polling featured here. Despite only being +1 from our previous Westminster VI, this is the highest level of support for Labour in Scotland that we have recorded since the indy referendum
NEW: Labour and the SNP would win the same number of seats - 24 - at a general election, according to a new poll
Survation for True North put SNP on 37% and Labour on 35%, its highest level of support w/ the company since 2014
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This is YouGov's lowest Labour figure since August 2022, and the lead is still 20 points. Their methodology change has obviously had an effect, but this is still testament to how far the Conservative vote share has cratered.
Sky News / YouGov exclusive poll
** Tories joint lowest VI share in Parliament
** Reform just ONE point behind
** Lab down 3; LD up 4
LAB 38% (-3),
CON 18% (-1),
RefUK 17% (+1),
LDEM 15% (+4),
GRN 8% (+1)
Fieldwork Mon/Tue (around Lib Dem manfiesto coverage)
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It was a pleasure to work on this and the results indicate the exploitation of young workers - 42% have been asked to work for no pay & 38% either do not have or do not know whether they have a written employment contract
NEW: Our polling with Survation revealed that young people lose up to £1.65bn through wage theft. Overtime is frequently un- or underpaid, and unpaid trial shifts are endemic.
Read our Your Time, Your Pay report into exploitation of young people at work:
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Alongside peeling Yes voters away from the SNP, the collapse in support for the Conservatives has made Labour the strongest unionist party.
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So that he can campaign on achieving a target the public do not understand and one that he is not responsible for meeting
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Here I take a look at the current state of British politics, undecided voters, and the most important issues (no surprises) heading into next year.
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The party leads the Conservatives on every major policy area except for defence. [2/6]
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Brilliant to see the publication of this report I co-authored with
@VasilSurvation
- which includes seat estimates on new boundaries.
Full details of our new 20,000 person MRP, with a focus on climate and environment for
@GreenpeaceUK
are now published on the link below:
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Labour finds itself in a fortunate position: it is attracting Yes voters as the only party capable of removing the Conservatives from Westminster, while also appealing to unionist voters as the party best-placed to defend the union.
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Methodology aside, we have seen no movement on the fundamentals underpinning Labour's lead since the election was called
Labour leads on all of the major issues in this election, with larger leads on health / NHS (Lab +25) and Housing / house prices (Lab +19) but slightly smaller on the economy (Lab +9) and immigration (Lab +9) but still clearly ahead.
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When presented with Farage as the Reform UK candidate, the party went from splitting the Conservative vote to winning the seat. Replacing Anthony Mack with Nigel Farage saw twice the number of Conservatives and Leavers express the intention to vote for Reform UK.
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Reform's ground operation appears to be dysfunctional, but let's see if they can turn that around in Blackpool South.
💥RECORD BREAKING
@IpsosUK
VOTING INTENTION 💥
Lab: 44%
Con: 19%
Reform: 13%
Lib Dems: 9%
Greens: 9%
Other: 6%
Lowest the Conservatives have ever polled with us across 45 years of surveys (breaking last month’s record)
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Here's what we think voting intentions currently are in these seats. NHS/Health is the most important issue in Eastbourne and Ipswich, while the cost of living placed first in Northampton North
CHECK OUT TIME: Plush migrant hotels for the chop by January — amid phase (in Tory marginals)
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Support for Scottish independence has remained almost completely unchanged since the referendum, but the SNP has lost its near monopoly on Yes voters as the salience of independence has declined relative to other issues.
Scottish Independence Voting Intention:
No 54% (-1)
Yes 46% (+1)
F/w 21st - 25th June 2024. Changes vs. 28th May 2024.
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Those discussing the prospect a snap 'small boats election' shouldn't forget that when it comes to policy areas Labour has a 12 point lead over the Conservatives on refugees and asylum seekers and a 9 point lead on immigration more broadly.
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Whatever strategy adjustment emerges after the local elections, we should not expect the polls to move without delivery on public services and the cost of living. [6/6]
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@OwenWntr
Very unlikely to win, but Akhmed Yakoob standing in Ladywood will be an interesting one to follow
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Any other leader would simply cut NHS waiting lists while reducing immigration and delivering lower taxes
Lord Frost and friends have asked a fascinatingly skewed YouGov poll question between these 3 options
1) Rishi Sunak
2) Keir Starner
3) imaginary new Conservative leader who stops the boats, cuts immigration, delivers lower taxes, better NHS, lower crime!
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It's copyrighted
@drjennings
My colleague
@JackSurvation
is trying to make "Rural Rampart" happen. Your thoughts?
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While Tice has a fighting chance, our polling has shown Farage would have been Reform's best hope of winning a seat were he to stand in Clacton.
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When we conducted a telephone poll of the constituency in January, we similarly found the incumbent Giles Watling led an unnamed Labour candidate by 8 points, with Reform trailing in third place on 18%.
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Great to see the publication of this work. Further insights to come from myself and
@VasilSurvation
NEW Concerns over climate and nature are higher than the national average in the Blue Wall and scores of marginal seats, a major new Survation survey and MRP of 20,000 people shows:
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From what we know so far, I'd say the outcome of the privileges committee's report aligns with public opinion. A majority viewed Boris as untrustworthy two months before the Conservatives won a landslide election - this hasn't gotten better with time
We conducted polling into Boris Johnson and the privileges committee on behalf of
@38degrees
on March 23rd, immediately following Johnson’s appearance in front of the committee, and on May 12th - 15th.
@JackSurvation
explores the insights in this article.
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@JamesDAustin
I think the frustration of many Conservative MPs in the early days indicates that not all thought it was wise...
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The public is sympathetic to striking NHS workers - 73% believe they should receive pay rises that keep up with inflation. Sunak may be waiting for potential contempt to foster, but blame is largely attributed to the Government with little evidence to suggest this will change.
Rishi Sunak refusing to budge on pay as strike action escalates
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The implied national vote share from this MRP is:
Lab 39.5
Con 26
Lib Dems 12.5
Ref 9
Grn 7.5
SNP 3
Plaid 0.5
Other 2
Fw 12th December - 4th January
For context, YouGov's headline VI published on 3rd January was:
Lab 46
Con 22
Ref 11
Lib Dems 10
Grn 8
SNP 3
Plaid 0
Other 1
YouGov's new MRP model finds Keir Starmer would win a 120-seat majority were the election held tomorrow
Lab: 385 seats (+183 from GE2019)
Con: 169 (-196)
Lib Dem: 48 (+37)
SNP: 25 (-23)
Plaid: 3 (-1)
Green: 1 (=)
Reform UK: 0 (=)
Fieldwork 12 Dec - 4 Jan
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@WTarbiat
@JamesDAustin
Current weekly VI is UK wide. The effect is small though as NI is only ~3%
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Plugging the 'Rural Rampart' again today after the Yougov poll
Here's me looking at some polling in what I wanted to unnecessarily call the 'Rural Rampart'
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This includes wealthy areas in Cheshire where the Conservatives hold large majorities, such as Chester South and Eddisbury (38% majority), Congleton (37% majority), Macclesfield (20% majority), and Tatton (35% majority).
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@charliemansell
I remember some great sections on this battle in Tim Shipman's book on the EU Ref
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Interesting that Ipsos have not recorded a 'No' lead in Indy Ref VI since May 2018
Support for Scottish independence is at a similar level to our last poll in May, with Yes slightly ahead. Among those with a voting intention and very likely to vote, 54% say they would vote Yes in an immediate referendum while 46% say they would vote No
(11/)
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I think there's a tendency to overstate the importance of leadership satisfaction. Sunak leads a deeply unpopular party. As time has passed, he's become more closely associated with the party. His better ratings in early '23 were likely just a product of perceived distance
Is Rishi Sunak an electoral liability for the Conservatives?
Leader satisfaction ratings
@IpsosUK
Dec 23. Sunak.
Sat 21%
Dissat 69%
Net: -48
Jul 22. Johnson.
Sat 24%
Dissat 69%
Net: -45
Oct 22 Truss
Sat 16%
Dissat 67%
Net: -51
Dec 19 Corbyn
Sat 24%
Dissat 68%
Net: -44
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@Dylan_Difford
Nonetheless your post got me thinking! It's an issue which certainly deserves more attention.
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@DamianSurvation
@pimlicat
@paddylogan13
@BestForBritain
I would just add that there is a wide range of estimates for this constituency - and many reasons to explain potential differences! The Ipsos model is more bullish on Greens than others.
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Many understate the significance of partygate. People working in politics quickly move onto the next story, but partygate still comes up unprompted in polling/focus groups. It's one of the few things which legitimately cuts through and would've made Boris' leadership untenable
I don't believe Labour would now have double the support the Tories do if Boris was still in Downing Street.
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Excellent article and thread by
@OwenWntr
What's going on in Birmingham, Bethnal Green, Bradford and Leicester?
Labour is directing activists to some of its safest seats in the country, constituencies where Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi people make up >30% of the population:
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This article offers an interesting perspective on the pressure placed upon schools to deliver social mobility. Often missed is that social mobility is not simply driven by individuals acquiring positional advantages in education. This relative, zero-sum view of mobility as (1/4)
The problem lies in the core values of social mobility itself: instead of protecting the economic powers of working-class people, it dangles the carrot of a middle-class life before them, writes
@C_B_Kins
.
Free to read 🔓
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Analysis of the issues which really matter to voters
NEW: Just one in three football fans think the Premier League should scrap VAR.
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Our latest Scotland voting intention figures - comparisons made against polling conducted at the time of Sturgeon's resignation.
NEW Scotland polling. Our first voting intention polling since the election of Humza Yousaf as SNP leader.
Westminster Voting Intention:
SNP 40% (-3)
LAB 32% (+2)
CON 17% (nc)
LD 7% (+1)
Others 4% (+1)
F/w 29 March - 3 April. Changes vs. 15-17 February.
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Reform UK are eating into the Conservative vote share. The party are attracting one in four voters who backed the Conservatives in 2019. [1/5]
NEW Survation Telephone Tracker for
@GMB
- Poll 2/4:
CON 20% (-3)
LAB 41% (-)
LD 12% (+2)
REF 15% (+3)
GRE 6% (-)
SNP 2% (-1)
OTH 5% (+1)
F/w 14th - 18th June. Changes vs. 12th June 2024.
@JackSurvation
explore the findings below.
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Very ambitious spin...
👇Turnout.
💡Not voting is not a swing to Labour.
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This is an excellent report.
🚨OUT NOW: Labour must straddle the education divide to achieve victory
New research from
@robfordmancs
shows the extent to which Labour’s hopes of achieving power depend on overcoming recent divisions between school leavers and graduates
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@EamonFarhat
But also perhaps the most interesting! Twice the number of 2019 Con voters have died as are currently intending to vote Lib Dem
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@LukeTryl
Also a consequence of the Lib Dems' strategy of narrowly focusing on a small number of seats and effectively fighting them like by-elections. There's not much insight to be had from tracking their % in headline voting intention.
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When we presented respondents with a scenario in which Reform did not stand in their constituency, the Conservative seat count rose by 50%. Sunak will need to squeeze the Reform vote hard, but thus far Reform have taken an aggressive tone on the Government’s record.
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Many people commenting on the significance of the GRA bill here. It is important to note fieldwork was completed BEFORE the bill was blocked
Scottish independence voting intention:
Yes: 46% (-1)
No: 54% (+1)
via
@Survation
, 10 - 12 Jan
Chgs. w/ Sep 2022
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Starmer's conference speech did well to frame cost of living issues in easily relatable language i.e. 'rebuilding the future' and an emphasis on home ownership for 'working people' is a tangible aspiration
Even if the PM fulfills these pledges, people do not understand the economy by reference to the metrics he's laid out e.g. in June, 32% expected price levels to fall if the rate of inflation was successfully halved before the end of the year (2/3)
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Among those not currently intending to vote Conservative but would consider voting for the party, the Cons have a 15 point lead over Labour on refugees and asylum seekers and a 13 point lead on immigration
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@ProgDirectorate
So they designation of blue wall here is seats that
voted to Remain, have a higher than average proportion of graduates, and are in the South or East of England. It is not perfect (of course!) but just thought I would add the criteria.
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The Greens are on track to record their best performance at a general election in terms of both vote share and number of seats. This will be something to watch out for, among the more attention-grabbing headlines.
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We see the biggest swings back to Labour in seats with the highest proportion of Leave voters
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Our March MRP had the Conservatives holding the seat on 35%, with a 6 point lead over Labour. Reform trailed in third place on 22%. The seat is a sufficiently three-way contest that Tice will have a chance, and the demographics of the seat are favourable to Reform.
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Trust and expectations matter when it comes to the economy. It appears Reeves is successfully building those credentials, and perhaps Labour's framing of the abolition of the lifetime pensions allowance as unfair (as opposed to incentivising labour market reentry) is working
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There is an overwhelming sense that Britain is broken, and should Sunak fail to meet his own benchmark for success, this could contribute to the sense his Government is failing to deliver. [5/6]
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Sunak is leaning heavily into his Rwanda policy. The hope is that delivery can bring some of the 18% of 2019 voters the party is currently losing to Reform. [3/6]
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Given three of these pledges are explicitly related to the economy, it's worth highlighting that just 15% of people think they will be in a better personal financial position this time next year. Over one in four think they will be worse off. (1/3)
Concerningly for the PM, the public have considerably more trust in Keir Starmer to deliver the NHS pledge. There is, however, little to split them across the other pledges.
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In line with the proportional swings we are seeing throughout the rest of the country, in the North West the Conservatives are losing the most votes in the constituencies where they won the greatest share of the vote in 2019.
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Lib Dems projected 48 seats here - which I think is the highest estimate from any existing MRP analysis
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