Owen Winter
@OwenWntr
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Political data scientist @TheEconomist (personal views) he/him
London, England
Joined January 2015
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I’m delighted to have joined
@TheEconomist
as a Political Data Scientist this week. I’ll be working on polls, forecasts and everything political data. Especially pleased to have joined in the year that 4billion people worldwide will go to vote - lots of exciting things coming up!
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In two days the govt have cancelled the Rwanda scheme, confirmed rail nationalisation, told Netanyahu they support a ceasefire + statehood, appointed a prison reformer prisons minister and a pro-Palestine activist AG. And the left is desperate to chalk it up as a defeat
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If Reform has a breakthrough today, we will know about it pretty quickly. Our model predicts Reform 22% in Blyth and Ashington (declares ~11.30), 27% in Houghton and Sunderland South (~11.45) and 21% in Basildon and Billericay (~12.15).
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YouGov asked people to rate Sunak and former PMs
(% good minus % bad)
Blair -4
Major -4
Brown -8
Sunak -25
Cameron -25
Johnson -36
May -37
Truss -76
Surprising how high Blair is and how low Cameron and May are
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Hartlepool voting intention
LAB: 58% (+20)
REF: 23% (-3)
CON: 10% (-19)
LDEM: 6% (+2)
GRN: 2% (+2)
@wethinkpolling
/
@TheEconomist
, 30 May - 9 June
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What's going on in Birmingham, Bethnal Green, Bradford and Leicester?
Labour is directing activists to some of its safest seats in the country, constituencies where Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi people make up >30% of the population:
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Economist seat prediction model, today vs the day we launched (15th April)
Lab: 389 (+17)
Con: 185 (-13)
SNP: 25 (-7)
Lib Dem: 22 (+1)
Plaid: 2 (-)
Grn: 1 (-)
Reform: 0 (-)
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Hard to understate how weird these constituency results are. Don't think we've seen a General Election this locally differentiated since the 1930s
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Keir Starmer should be Britain’s next prime minister - The Economist endorses Labour for the first time since 2005
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Gillingham & Rainham voting intention (+/- 5%, changes vs 2019 notional)
LAB: 55% (+27)
CON: 23% (-39)
REF: 15% (+15)
LDEM: 5% (=)
GRN: 2% (=)
@wethinkpolling
/
@TheEconomist
, 5th-16th June. N=376
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The census releases data on car availability by household deprivation:
The "poor people don't drive" narrative is such a London bubble thing.
The pink areas on this map are where people use public transport more than driving.
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With today's polls included, the Conservatives are at their lowest average voting intention since Liz Truss was Prime Minister
Lab - 44%
Con - 24%
Lib Dem - 11%
Greens - 7%
Reform - 6%
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It's funny, I don't think the vibe of the last few days has been "Labour vote drops 5 points". But that's what we're looking at
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Very pleased to see our swing model published today.
If an election were held tomorrow, our median estimate of the result would be:
Lab - 372
Con - 198
SNP - 32
Lib Dem - 21
Plaid - 2
Green - 1
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Pretty striking relationship between percentage Muslim in a constituency and its Labour MP's likelihood of voting for the SNP amendment
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Our presidential forecast is back! We give Kamala Harris a 52% chance of winning the election
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Interesting some polling data I'm looking at has Lib Dem retention from 2019 at 78% in seats where they came 1st or 2nd, and 44% where they didn't
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Compared with 15th-16th July, with Biden
AZ: Trump +7 -> +5
GA: Trump +6 -> +2
MI: Trump +3 -> +1
PA: Trump +5 -> +2
WI: Trump +4 -> Tied
SWING STATE POLLS with
@thehill
Harris v. Trump
Arizona: Trump 49%, Harris 44%
Georgia: Trump 48%, Harris 46%
Michigan: Trump 46%, Harris 45%
Pennsylvania: Trump 48%, Harris 46%
Wisconsin: Trump 47%, Harris 47%
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After 6 results, our live model is slightly more sceptical about the Conservative seat share than the exit poll. Very early though
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End of 2022 poll update! Labour has the biggest lead of any opposition party at this point in the Parliament since 1995
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We estimated Houghton and Sunderland South - Labour 49%, Reform 27%. In fact it was Labour 47%, Reform 29%. Just one seat, but endorses a slight Labour underperformance and slight Reform over.
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Bicester & Woodstock voting intention (+/- 4%, changes vs 2019 notional)
LAB: 31% (+14)
LDEM: 31% (+4)
CON: 30% (-23)
REF: 3% (+3)
GRN: 3% (+1)
@wethinkpolling
/
@TheEconomist
, 6th-24th June. N=458
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Looks like the Conservative mini-bounce has stalled in post-conference polling
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 47% (+4)
CON: 27% (-1)
LDEM: 10% (-2)
via
@DeltapollUK
, 13 - 16 Oct
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Historically, we're moving into the part of the Parliament when the polls begin to move in the Government's favour.
Labour still outperforming the "winning opposition" average:
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Biggest increases in the Labour vote:
🏴 East Renfrewshire 31%
🏴 Falkirk 31%
🏴 Alloa and Grangemouth 30%
🏴 Central Ayrshire 30%
🏴 Bathgate and Linlithgow 28%
🏴 East Kilbride and Strathaven 27%
🏴 Edinburgh South West 27%
🏴 Stirling and Strathallan 26%
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We’ve spent two years talking about how uniform swing doesn’t work when one party is 20pts ahead… not enough time worrying about how it might break the MRPs
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Harris is rebuilding the Dem coalition.
@daniella_raz
and I wrote about her dramatic polling turnaround:
Harris outperforms Biden in net favourability among those who are under 30 (+24), black (+24), liberal (+21), hispanic (+19)
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can you blame him?
🚨 NEW: Tory minister Steve Baker has been accused of "giving up" after jetting off to Greece instead of campaigning in his constituency
[
@daveburke12
]
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Green Party Co-leaders less well known than a made up name. Surprising and kind of impressive
New
@IpsosUK
polling explores public attitudes to Lee Anderson's defection to Reform UK.
1. First things first. He's not that well known. Just three in ten familiar. More than his new boss mind - and it does rise to 40% amongst 2019 Cons.
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Had a little look at differences in British and American public opinion. By far the biggest difference is belief in God (81% in US, 48% in GB)
Followed by:
- Private/public ownership
- Abortion
- Death penalty
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Scottish Westminster voting intention (pre-resignation):
SNP: 38% (-7% since 2019)
Labour: 35% (+17%)
Conservative: 16% (-9%)
Lib Dem: 5% (-4%)
Green: 3% (+2%)
YouGov/Scottish Opinion Monitor, 10th-15th February
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One interesting part of Reeves's statement is the opposition discovering what it's like to be on the other side of the government's incumbency advantages (agenda setting, information asymmetry). You can see the front bench are furious about it
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Central estimates of our prediction model, updated with the Electoral Calculus MRP and latest polls:
Lab 434 (+5 vs 26th June)
Con 106 (-11)
LDem 48 (+6)
SNP 23 (=)
Plaid 3 (=)
Ref 2 (=)
Grn 1 (=)
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The lego brick obsession is wrong, but even if you accept its logic, Con+Reform is outnumbered by the left-of-centre parties in 479 seats
BBC re Darlington. "If Reform hadn't been around, the Tories would have held it on those numbers." Coverage seems to think Ref and Con voters are Lego bricks that parties can clip together at will...
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Labour has a ~17% lead now, compared to ~6% at the same point in 1992
Tory MPs returning to Westminster today wistfully talking about Sunak fighting a ‘92 election: green shoots, risky Labour. Not so much “change” as “keep a-hold of Nurse”, as one minister put it. Analysis featuring Hezza and
@nickmacpherson2
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We're practically at the inflection point where the 1987-1992 Parliament went from big Labour leads to being very close. This time the Conservatives don't have an unpopular Prime Minister they can depose:
On parallels to 1992 here is a selection of Ipsos polls from 1991. No 15 pt Labour leads there. Couple of Tory ones in fact.
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Data increasing looking like a pincer of Reform, Labour and Lib Dems taking Con19 voters with the geographic distribution that does maximum damage. Will have more on this next week hopefully! 🦕
Interesting some polling data I'm looking at has Lib Dem retention from 2019 at 78% in seats where they came 1st or 2nd, and 44% where they didn't
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jeez I'd forgotten about the Supplementary Vote being abolished
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One reason the Conservatives might do worse than uniform swing implies: tactical voting. In BES data, I found that the number of voters considering more than one progressive party is at its highest in recent history
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The tone of many responses to this speech feel really off. Fine to poke fun at council candidates speaking about foreign policy, but the insinuations that this is extremism are islamophobic
Residents: can you fix the potholes in the roads?
The Green Party:
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the Brexit Party got 25% in West Virginia in 2019
Demographically, the UK is pretty similar to Iowa, so you’re kidding if you think it would be a reliably blue state.
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One of the amazing things after this election is how diverse our party system is. In terms of 1st and 2nd places...
308 Lab v Con
93 Lab v Ref
84 Lib v Con
45 Lab v Grn
41 Lab v SNP
14 Lab v Oth
11 Ref v Con
9 Lab v Lib
9 SNP v Con
6 Lab v PC
2 Grn v Con
1 PC v Con
1 PC v Lib
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Very cool new interactive pretty surprised to how Tory my demogs are!
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Quite amazing how many pro-Gaza Independent MPs won... and Galloway still lost
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Very pleased to see our US Presidential MRP in
@politico
today - one year out:
Trump 45% (298 EC votes)
Biden 46% (240)
RFK 8%
West 1%
Libertarian 1%
Green 1%
Head to head:
Trump 48% (292)
Biden 49% (246)
@StackStrat
12th Oct - 3rd Nov, N=15,205
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Most Londoners support ULEZ, but they disproportionately live in Labour seats which won't be competitive at the next election:
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Funny looking back a month to "the Conservatives need to make gains every week" and it having been so much worse than that:
Lab 41% (-4)
Con 20% (-4)
Ref 16% (+5)
Lib Dem 11% (+2)
Green 6% (-)
Interesting dynamic this election that every day the government doesn't make gains increases the likelihood of Labour victory.
Average of 5 polls since the election was called, with change from pre-announcement:
Lab: 44 (-)
Con: 23 (-)
Ref: 12 (+1)
Lib Dem: 10 (-)
Green: 6 (-1)
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Dover voting area (Kent PCC)
Lab 44% (+13)
Con 41% (-16)
LD 16% (+3)
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One curious thing about the Bristol Central election is how committed Debbonaire is to sounding like a Labour MP representing a moderate/auth-left Labour constituency, rather than the most lib/left seat in the country. Genuine conviction or mis-calibrated ministerial ambition?
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niche but the Greens are actually nightmarish from a modelling POV because they love winning loads of votes in places with none of their core demographics
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These numbers are so small that I find it striking in the opposite direction. The U.K. has a higher % Chinese residents than Japan despite being 000s km further apart
One of many stupid reasons Westerners think Japan is super homogeneous is that they go there and see a bunch of Asian people, not realizing that a lot of the people they're seeing aren't actually Japanese.
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Great Yarmouth voting area (Norfolk PCC)
Lab 41% (+15)
Con 40% (-13)
Grn 11% (+5)
LD 8% (+3)
No Other this time (10%)
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🦕 Here is our
@TheEconomist
/
@wethinkpolling
MRP!
And
@JamesFransham
has updated our Britain prediction model methodology.
This is how we're thinking about the election (with maps + charts!) 🧵
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being painted into the house by our landlord’s mum is too absurd to even get angry about
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Even if you account for Leicester and Slough having unique local factors, it looks as though wards with higher British Indian populations swung away from Labour and towards the Conservatives in the local elections
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Government ends the week on an average voting intention of 24%.
The UK govt has had a VI of 24% or lower three times in the history of polling:
- October 2022
- May/June 2019
- May/June 2009
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Curious pattern from our pre-election polling. In Lib Dem seats with low deprivation (Wokingham, Richmond, etc), their support came from less deprived areas. In their seats with higher deprivation (Caithness, Torbay, Cornwall), their support came from more deprived areas.
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not sure being so obsessed with your own party's internal politics that you remind voters of its very unpopular former leader is a great approach
Quite the line from Starmer on the Tories:
They're building a sort of Jeremy Corbyn-style manifesto where anything you want can go in it, and none of it is costed... load everything into the wheelbarrow, don't provide the funding, and hope nobody notices the money isn't there.
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@LeftieStats
@dayglowj0e
It's not "gleeful left-bashing" - you got everything you wanted! Four Green MPs, 7% Green vote, Corbyn reelected, Labour government calling for a ceasefire! If you insist on being losers that's your choice, but I think it's a strategic misstep
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Today, we have published our MRP with
@wethinkpolling
:
Lab 465 (+263)
Con 76 (-289)
LDem 52 (+41)
SNP 29 (-19)
Reform 3 (+3)
Green 3 (+2)
PC 3 (-1)
@TheEconomist
/
@wethinkpolling
N=18595
30th May - 21st June
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@democlub
One week til nominations close:
Lab 627 (+20)
Green (GPEW + Scottish Greens) - 573 (+9)
Lib Dem - 530 (+16)
Reform UK - 470 (+13)
Conservative - 448 (+40)
Workers Party - 173 (+4)
SDP - 125 (+8)
Independent - 99 (+16)
SNP - 57 (+1)
Plaid Cymru - 28 (+1)
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The screeching turn from "Corbyn would win in a landslide" to "his name isn't big enough on the ballot paper" all before the election has happened
Voters in Islington North have voted for Labour by postal vote, thinking that Jeremy Corbyn is still the candidate.
That's according to Labour's own sources in this article.
The truth is Corbyn's big disadvantage centres on launching the campaign late.
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Potential for ecological fallacy here. In polling data I’ve seen, non-Muslim voters in more Muslim areas have swung just as far (sometimes further) than Muslims from Lab->Green
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Our first estimate of voting intention since Harris became the presumptive nominee. Tracker coming soon!
Trump 47%
Harris 46%
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Presidential voting intention:
Harris: 46% (+5 vs 21-23rd July)
Trump: 44% (=)
Kennedy: 3% (-2)
The Economist/YouGov, 27-30th July
Biggest Dem lead since January
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Sending activists to these seats fits with Starmer's shifting tone on the war in Gaza. Labour are clearly worried about Muslim voters
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If Reform is on course to win more than a handful of seats, they'll likely be competitive in at least one of these (Basildon, I'd guess). Flip side is that we shouldn't overreact to a substantial vote share in the first few declarations - these are very favourable for Reform
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Local election vote share in Johnny Mercer's Plymouth Moor View constituency:
Lab 46% (+4)
Con 29% (-12)
Other 10% (+1)
Green 9% (+5)
Lib Dem 6% (+2)
Changes with 2022
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What do they have in common? All of them are over 30% Indian, Pakistani or Bangladeshi. As you go down the list, Labour are sending activists to many other areas with significant South Asian populations: Bolton, Ealing, Huddersfield, Luton, Oldham
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@patricksturg
There's no evidence trans rights advocates are disproportionately men or their opponents are disproportionately women... Male MSPs were more likely than female MSPs to vote against the GRR bill in Scotland, for example. Polling consistently shows men hold more transphobic views.
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Quite staggering disproportionality at this election. ~64% of seats on ~34% of the vote
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Very interesting paper published this week, showing how the adoption of PR in New Zealand has meant fewer centre-right governments and greater income redistribution since 1996 (from
@Maciej76718052
and
@pierzgal
)
@Labour4PR
@robfordmancs
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not a fun take but I’m not sure election year local elections tell you anything about the fate of the government
2019: Con -1,330 (Con+48 MPs)
2017: Con +563 (-13)
2014: Con -236 (+24)
2009: Lab -291 (-91)
2004: Lab -464 (-48)
2000: Lab -574 (-6)
1996: Con -607 (-178)
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The geography of subjective social class. People in Scotland, south Wales, parts of the north of England and London are significantly more likely to identify as working class, once you control for income and education. (inspired by
@TomLath36874686
)
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We’re going to see a load of Harris/Trump polls from before Biden dropped out in the next few days… probably best to wait a couple of weeks before thinking about any of them
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live in England? you can choose:
(1) 5,000% Con swing to Labour
(2) Labour loses half its vote
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Stoke-on-Trent voting area (Staffordshire PCC)
Lab 53% (+16)
Con 36% (-16)
LD 12% (+9)
No Reform this time (2%)
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Labour currently leads by ~20%. Here's how that compares to opposition parties at this point before historic elections:
* 1997: 25%
* 1970: 18%
* 2010: 17%
* 1964: 11%
* 1974: 6%
1987: 6%
1959: 5%
2015: 3%
* 1979: 1%
2019: 0%
* Went on to form a govt
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