Patrick Sturgis
@patricksturg
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Prof Department of Methodology LSE. Research methods, surveys & polling, whingeing about West Ham. tweeting in a personal capacity.
Joined June 2009
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"Rishi has made two big calls in his career — backing Brexit and backing Boris — and those are the two most catastrophic things to happen to this country in the last decade.” spot-on from George Osborne.
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On a broader level, this is yet more evidence of just how broken the criminal justice system is under this government. The party of law and order? Hmmm.
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Interesting that
@BBCr4today
decided to go with 'Nissan announces it will stay in Sunderland' as the headline story this morning rather than 'Chief Executive of HMRC tells MPs Brexit deal will cost British businesses £7.5 billion this year' 🤷♂️
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This one of the worst survey questions of its kind I've seen and I'll be using it in my survey methods course next year to illustrate how political grifters use polling to advance their agendas.
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4 years ago, a man smashed a window at the front of my house & entered my property while my daughter were asleep upstairs. The sound of the breaking glass woke me and I came downstairs to be confronted by an intruder in my living room. 1/n
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The reason given by the CPS: the prosecution is no longer in the public interest because so much time has passed since the offence took place (4 years). I am not after revenge & I don't want the guy to go to jail but I am very far from satisfied with this outcome.
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Balls. He deserves to be remembered as one of the ringleaders of brexit, a man who lowered our politics and damaged our country almost beyond repair.
We may have disagreed on Brexit, but
@michaelgove
has been an outstanding Secretary of State. He deserves to be remembered in particular for his work with
@NickGibbUK
at Education which, building on the Blair/Adonis reforms, transformed the life chances of so many children
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I'm not having the 'Gove got things done and was a great politician' narrative. The man was one of the biggest big fat lying liars at the top of the brexit pyramid of bullshit. Any small good he may have done is massively outweighed by that. Good riddance.
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This is a terribly sad story in
@thesundaytimes
. By admitting more kids from state schools, Oxbridge are forcing the privately educated offspring of the super wealthy to go to Ivy league colleges in the US. Something must be done to stop this!
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I don't comment on every political issue of the day, that doesn't mean I don't have a view. I deplore the bullying and harassment of
@Docstockk
which is completely unacceptable.
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This is the level of leading Brexiter thinking on trade.
Will the supermarkets buy the shellfish the EU will not take and work with our fishing industry to sell it to U.K. buyers?
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@lottelydia
You’re an academic and you’re taking misrepresentation by ‘trans vibes’ over an authoritative independent report by a leading paediatrician. You should be embarrassed.
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Curiously, Prof Goodwin here fails to mention his own history of threatening to sue academics who write things about his work that he doesn't like.
“When you’re seeing young colleagues being sacked or seeing academics chased off campus by protests and open letters... this is not what anybody wants to see”
Academic Matthew Goodwin on a law to protect free speech at universities
#PoliticsLive
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I've been a supporter of Starmer's 'don't scare the horses' strategy but this sort of thing is taking it much too far. There's little point in a Labour government if they won't get rid of this sort of vindictive policy.
A Labour govt would keep the two-child cap on benefits, Keir Starmer confirms in
@bbclaurak
interview.
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This simply is not a sustainable position.
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Today I received a letter from the CPS telling me the trial will not be going ahead and no further action will be taken against the man who broke into my house in the middle of the night.
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I called the police and he was apprehended close by within an hour. I was interviewed by the police and have been updated by them sporadically over the ensuing years. About a month ago I was told the trial would take place on 30th August and I would be called as a witness. 3/n
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He opened the doors at the back of the living room and fled into the garden. It was a very unsettling experience and I don't like to think about what might have happened had he not been able to escape. 2/n
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@s8mb
I think you need evidence of a correlation between IQ and benevolence to support this inference
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@Schroedinger99
@Digbylj
While you're at it, could you also explain why you and other brexiters did not mention these very important but completely unfeasible requirements for brexit to be successful during the referendum campaign?
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I'm old enough to remember when Henry Newman used to appear on tv practically every day as a neutral commentator on brexit through his role as director of 'thinktank' Open Europe.
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@Dorianlynskey
@MrHarryCole
The British Election Study found only 3% of Leave voters expected Brexit to make the economy worse before the referendum in June 2016.
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So, you mean pointing out a huge medical scandal around the mistreatment of vulnerable children wasn't just 'culture wars'? Well I never.
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Do you admire Nelson Mandela?
I've never met him. I don't know.
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“He wants to outlast Dave [Cameron]. He won’t accept the last Etonian PM having survived longer than him.” - it's telling that the Johnson's primary motivation to continue as PM is a schoolboy grudge.
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Great 'gotcha' interviewing by Beth Rigby but what is wrong with her approach is it assumes a) immigration is bad and b) taxation is bad. These premises need to be challenged if this country is to dig it out of the hole we are in.
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I am not convinced that refusing to publish Sue Gray's report in full while also claiming it absolves Boris Johnson is going to work very well.
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Supporting women's sex-based rights is not a culture war.
I want to wish everyone at London Trans Pride today a joyful, safe and empowering day.
It's never been more important to support trans people, who are being stigmatised and placed at the heart of a toxic culture war.
As your Mayor, I will always be on your side.🏳️⚧️
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Pro tip for exit poll watchers:
If the wording is 'Tory majority' it means lower confidence interval is >325 (go to bed)
If the wording is 'Tories largest party' it means lower confidence interval is <325 (stay up)
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@simonjhix
@JeremyCliffe
no, the 'blitz spirit' is actually a myth, there was a great deal of unrest & anger at government incompetence. The wealthy retreated from London of course. See here:
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I am a professor of quantitative social science. If any journalists would like to interview me about whether 73,191 is a larger or smaller number than 100,000 DM me.
We’ll test 100,000 people a day by the end of this month.
Here’s how ⬇️
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David Davis still insisting that the Withdrawal Agreement should include a trade deal. This is a staggering level of ignorance for someone who was Brexit secretary for 2 years. Humphrys doesn't even challenge him
#R4today
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Universities minister Michelle Donelan's claim on
#r4today
that the Turing scheme will enable any UK student to go to whichever overseas university they want to is false. I can tell you now MIT is not going to enter into fee waiver agreements with the vast majority of UK unis.
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Personal statements should indeed be scrapped because they advantage affluent kids but what this article doesn't mention is that for the vast majority, they are completely irrelevant and young people stress over them needlessly.
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If a pollster wanted to boost the Tories by putting a finger on the scales, it's not at all clear that the best way to do this is to over-state the Tory lead.
In fact, it's probably best to under-state it.
Polling conspiracy theorists never seem to address this.
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It's plausible, given historical precedent, that:
1. YouGov MRP over-estimated the Tory lead by 4-5 points
2. The actual lead will drop by ~3 points between now and 12 December
If 1 & 2 pertain, we are looking at a hung parliament
NB: plausible not probable
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Imagine how progressives would react if a group of atheist MPs had to meet in secret for fear of reprisals by religious fundamentalists.
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With brexit going so well it’s very strange that Ukraine desperately wants to join the EU. They need a delegation of Brexiters to head out there and explain the historic mistake they are making.
“don’t rejoice at the candidate status being a slap in moscow‘s face. but be proud of it being an applause for ukraine“
and just like that in low-key selfie-video
@ZelenskyyUa
delivers most likely his most important self-decolonization speech ever
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This is worth a read. Matt Goodwin has given up all pretence of being a serious political scientist, this could have been written by Toby Young or Alison Pearson. Quite sad really.
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Imagine thinking Jeremy Corbyn has a better position on Ukraine that Starmer.
These guys have been advocating for an opposition leader who defines themselves as ‘slightly less awful than Priti Patel’ for years.
What did they expect?
Starmer is doing exactly what he said he’d would: whatever centrist pundits and the press tell him to.
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Ok I’m calling it. Salisbury has the most magnificent vaccination centre in the world.
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There's been discussion on whether Leave voters were voting against their economic interests. This chart from BES data shows they didn't think brexit would harm the economy in 2016 - it would either have no effect or make things better.
@JohnRentoul
@robfordmancs
@t0nyyates
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Spectacularly misjudged by The Sun, this would have looked even worse if we’d won.
This is such a bad idea, there aren't words to describe it.
The Sun bought billboards in Paris to taunt French fans.
They're world champs with the best player.
We aren't likely to win.
But if we do, have respect.
Jingoistic bollocks
#ENGFRA
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This man is an utter imbecile. One day he's giving a speech about how the NIP is terrible and needs to be scrapped because he was rushed into it, the next he's on here boasting about having negotiated it quickly.
2 'You will never get rid of the backstop': Done
'An FTA will take many years to do': Done in ten months.
'You'll never reach an FTA without the ECJ': we did.
'You can't leave the transition period at end-2020': we did.
'The French will retaliate over fishing': they didn't.
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If Biden ends up narrowly winning the electoral college and the popular vote by 5-6 points are we really going to declare 2020 a polling disaster? Hang tight folks.
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"He got brexit done" is the stock phrase in assessments of Johnson's premiership but he only did it by agreeing to a border in the Irish Sea which could have been taken by May at any time during the negotiations. She refused to do so for reasons which are now apparent.
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“The important thing is to get the economics right” says brexit-backing economist.
In short, talk of 'market meltdown' and a 'sterling crisis' is still overdone.
It may take more time to win over investors and the general public, but the most important thing is to get the economics right. This is a good start, despite the negative headlines.
[Ends].
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@suzanne_moore
Kirstie Allsop has said she's sorry the women who tried to stop it weren't politer about it. Does that count?
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when net migration was *negative* in the early 90s 80% of the public still wanted to reduce immigration. This should lead us to question the validity of the measure, not unquestioningly use it as a basis for policy.
I’ve written for
@timesredbox
on how people like to ‘explain away’ the public’s views on immigration. Actually, they just have genuine concerns - & listening & acting on them is not only key for the Tories’ fortunes, but also to public trust in our system.
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This shows an alarming misunderstanding of probability from the man leading the Imperial vaccine development project.
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Strong vindication of Cambridge decision to withdraw Jordan Peterson's visiting fellowship - who would want to be associated with someone this stupid?
Holy moly. I don't think I can do this. First words out of Peterson's mouth in the Joe Rogan interview are complete self parody. I can't even dunk on it.
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So, the Government announces a new policy out of the blue on Tuesday, partially reverses it on Saturday afternoon and then cancels the partial reversal on Saturday night.
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@PropertySpot
@EmilyThornberry
She’s saying Labour would get a ‘British FTA’ but doesn’t mention Ireland. Unbelievable.
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@leftysceptic
@janeclarejones
@sleeepysandy
@UOzkirimli
@DrLauraFavaro
Last week I politely challenged Lisa Tilley's assertion on here that sex isn't binary by asking her to name a sex other than male or female. She called me a fascist, accused me of exterminating oppressed minorities and then blocked me.
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@ProfAliceS
"people should not state objective facts" is going to be a hard line to run with in an election campaign.
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Damning account of Johnson & Sunak's culpability for 1.5 million covid infections and 13000 deaths:
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It's truly rather sad that the only things brexiters are able to celebrate weren't actually taken away by the EU, like blue passports, crown symbols, and sovereignty.
18 years after EU ordered govt to remove crown symbol from our pint glasses they're back for
#PlatinumJubilee
Cheers
#Boris
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very revealing Tweet from
@FraserNelson
. Actually Fraser, this is the exact opposite of how research should be done.
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I see Matt Goodwin has a piece in today's Sunday Times explaining how crystal clear it is that Partygate caused the Tory poll meltdown. Which is funny because 6 short months ago he was telling us Johnson would "stare down partygate" and survive.
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Personal news: After 10 great years at Southampton Directing
@NCRMUK
I am delighted and proud to be joining the Department of Methodology at the LSE as Professor of Quantitative Social Research.
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Extraordinary article by Larry Elliot claiming brexit has had no negative impact on the economy. He sets up straw men and cherry-picks one report from a pro-brexit group & ignores all the counter evidence. Really poor from the Observer.
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Also, I wish people would stop taking Henry Newman as a serious independent commentator, he isn't.
He is former Gove advisor, stood as a Tory candidate in 2017 election, and heads up a pro-brexit lobby group that doesn't reveal who funds it.
Love all those marching for second referendum on Saturday because people were "lied to" about £350 million - the net figure was roughly half, they tell us
Many of them also tell us a million people marched on Saturday when they didn't - actual figure was probably half that
🙄
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Rosie Duffield
Hi Twitter. Genuine request. Which backbench MPs do you think have made a real non-partisan difference through a campaign over the last few years? And on what subject?
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Not only did Goodwin predict a Remain win, he continued to claim he'd predicted Brexit even when I repeatedly pointed him to the factual record. This is probably the most blatant piece of dishonesty I have ever seen in academic. And that's saying something.
This is pure gas-lighting by Goodwin. He predicted a Remain win in 2016, a Clinton victory in 2016, and a Trump victory in 2020. An impressive 100% record to be fair.
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The first MRP projection in 2017 was (approximately) right and surprising. People thought it was a magic method. Now we have many MRPs it's clear their projections are determined by the underlying poll data + assumptions. But we don't know which polls/assumptions are correct.
Three MRPs out today
MiC say Tories win 155 seats and Lab majority 165
YouGov say Tories win 108 seats and Lab majority 200
Savanta say Tories win 53 seats and Lab majority 382
That's basically the spectrum we're looking at. 1997 is now the best possible result.
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We apologise for an error in previously referring to the Russell Group as “fuckwits”, in place of “university mission group”. We have no idea how this mistake can have happened.
We apologise for an error in our original submission to the OfS free speech consultation, which incorrectly listed "gender critical" speech as an example of unlawful speech, in place of "transphobic". This was a genuine mistake and we have now republished our corrected summary.
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The man who famously struggles to run a crosstab and commissioned someone else to run one terrible poll is now proclaiming himself a 'pollster'. What a plank.
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We really need to get these anti-HE, anti-immigration Tories away from the levers of power as a matter of national urgency before they do even more irreparable damage to the country.
@JonnElledge
Having walked around Huddersfield (my hometown) on the weekend I can assure you that the idea of HE expansion as magic beans for regional growth is sadly not correct. Will write something longer on this soon.
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The BBC really should stop having Goodwin on as some sort of neutral political commentator.
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Always worth pointing out on such occasions that Matt is in the habit of threatening to sue academics who write things that he doesn't like.
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Oh look, free speech warrior
@epkaufm
has blocked me for criticising the survey methods he uses to claim there is a free speech crisis in UK universities.
@EricRoyalLybeck
@robfordmancs
@jdportes
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London based Eton and York University educated
@David_Goodhart
whose kids all went to Russell Group unis advises other people's kids to stay in economically depressed northern towns and avoid university:
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This is grade A bullshit from Dom, trying to use tech sounding long words to justify blatant terrible procurement practice. Why would a polling company need to 'connect instantly to the No10 data sci team & cloud'? Give me a break.
Why Hanbury? Just weeks ago they’d worked with me on GE. Unlike normal polling companies I *knew* they cd connect *instantly* to new No10 data science team & cloud *with zero mtngs*. INSTANTLY, without mtngs/debate, was what we needed as covid spread in 3/20
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Oh dear, OfQual have over-ruled
@GavinWilliamson
meaning his promise that students can appeal to have their mock grade is broken.
@Samfr
@xtophercook
@RichardA
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Watching the Blair Brown years and struck by how anachronistic it seems for Mandelson to have resigned for not declaring a loan from a friend made before the 97 election.
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2 main things driving this now imv, one is people encountering the hassles of brexit (previously hidden by de facto membership to 2020, then covid), the other is connecting brexit with the failure of the brexit governments, cf Truss.
Meanwhile, the gap between the amount of people who think Brexit was "wrong", in hindsight, and the amount who think it was "right" just keeps getting bigger and bigger
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Yeah, but then when you look at the fact you've consistently been wrong about absolutely everything for the past 5 years, people are rightly going to ignore your legal opinions
@montie
Tim, the Bill does not break any law. The issue of treaty infraction would arise only if the EU, despite its promises, failed to agree a trade deal. And even then, I'm not sure that upholding one part of the Protocol against later contradictory clauses breaches international law.
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So, have I got this right? Cummings & wife were so ill they had to drive 250 miles to parents house - where they stayed in a separate house and didn't see his parents? So, why did they need to go there?
Few more details this morning -
-small number of people in No 10 knew that Cummings had gone to Durham, not stayed in London -seems it was his sister who had offered to help with childcare when he and his wife fell ill
-family stayed in separate house + had no contact in the end
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The man behind the ‘citizens of nowhere’ speech hopes we can avoid a culture war🤦♂️
@anandMenon1
@epkaufm
No, that’s not what I argue. The mainstream needs a voice to counter the minority. Ideally we would correct this nonsense altogether and avoid an ongoing culture war. But I fear we might be too late.
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Fair enough but at least I’m not a massive liar who poisoned the well of British politics, screwed our economy and international standing in a failed attempt to improve government procurement. So there is that.
The 'go left on econ, right on culture' meme is lazy ignorant oversimplification typical of pundits & crap 'social sci' academics (Goodwin, Sturgis et al) who've never been responsible for running a winning campaign (similar to 'you always win in the centre ground')
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Interrupting my holiday to report the latest methodological howler from
@epkaufm
. He’s actually wrong twice because if the sample is a large % of the population you need the fpc correction for the variance. Emabarrassing.
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Gove is saying that Cummings did not need to self-isolate because his wife was not showing covid-19 symptoms
But the entire stated rationale for the journey to Durham was to get childcare for their child because they thought they had covid-19
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@mrhorsdusujet
@SpaJw
Because it punishes children through impoverishment for decisions taken by their parents
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This entirely misses the point. The reason the current sleaze scandal is worse than expenses is that it comes from the top, the PM whipped his party to vote for corruption and is mired in sleaze allegations himself.
On sleaze/corruption, I've been pelted here for suggesting the Tories aren't irredeemably corrupt. But on second jobs, the numbers involved are far smaller than expenses - even if you assume that absolutely none of these jobs are legitimate, which is clearly nonsense.
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The Dover queues seem to me the highest profile example so far of a brexit negative impact where the proximal cause is clearly brexit and the brexiters are struggling to lie and dissemble their way out of it.
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In the Methodology Department at LSE, we de-colonised the curriculum for an introductory stats course last year.
It basically involved adding examples and data sets from outside Europe & US - why would anyone object to that?
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This Guardian piece is disgusting. Nothing more than slurs, guilt by association, misinformation, and a heavy dose of misogyny.
Oh dear
@jonathanliew
(I'm blocked) strikes again in a frankly dishonest & bonkers
@guardian
piece.
Once again, the right can only make capital out of females wanting female categories at
@parkrun
when the liberal/left reveal themselves as totally unreconstructed sexists. 1/
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@Docstockk
@project_lesbian
The simultaneous demands for more treatment services and also to be accepted as not a pathology appear on the face of it to be inconsistent.
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