Keiran Pedley
@keiranpedley
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Pollster. Public opinion / politics @IpsosUK . ‘Genuine poll boffin’ - Daily Star. Expect Spurs, polling & politics. Views my own.
Palmers Green Enfield
Joined July 2009
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Does anyone else find Labour politicians using the word ‘comrade’ really cringeworthy?
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The absolute banter outcome now is for the Dems to run on Trump’s age and mental capacity to do the job.
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This has to be one of the most effective co-ordinated hit jobs on a PM I can remember. Wonder who is behind it…
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It’s a bit early yet and take this with a pinch of salt but I’m hearing Susan Hall might have won London…
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Looks like Keir Starmer has just won re-election with this photo
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Do people really believe Keir Starmer wouldn’t answer the phone to an international crisis after 6pm? Let’s be serious.
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So what results do you get if you ask Sir Humphrey's polling questions?
@IpsosUK
decided to try it. We showed 1,000 Brits his pro national service poll and 1,000 his anti national service poll. Results:
Sample A: 45% in favour of national service, 38% say no.
Sample B: 48%
Yes, Prime Minister once featured a sketch where Sir Humphrey once showed us all how not to do opinion polling.
But what would the results of his two polls actually have been?
Tune into
@TimesRadio
with
@MattChorley
~11.40 this morning to find out...
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Honestly, I cannot understand why we’re talking about earrings & Boris Johnson’s future with ambulance, GP & A&E waiting times what they are. The NHS should’ve been a 10-15 minute segment here. What’s mad is it’s been like this throughout the campaign 🤷♀️
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NEW from
@IpsosUK
/
@standardnews
.
🚨Labour lead at 14 🚨
Lab 44 (+3)
Con 30 (nc)
Lib Dems 10 (-5)
Green 8 (+2)
Other 8 (nc)
Fieldwork July 21-27. Changes from June.
But there is a catch...
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IDS On Blair: 'The idea somehow that the British people were misinformed about this is absolute nonsense'
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🚨NEW
@IpsosMORI
/
@standardnews
poll:
Starmer leads Johnson +13 on 'most capable PM' 🚨
Most capable PM (change from September)
Starmer 44% (+6)
Johnson 31% (-7)
1st Lab lead on this measure with Ipsos MORI since Brown vs Cameron (Jan 08)
Read on for more:
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A question you might reasonably have is why would Biden take Michigan if he's still ~13k votes behind. Answer is simple - there are ~360k votes left in Wayne County (Detroit) and if they split as they currently are (67% Biden / 32% Trump) Biden lands a net gain of ~100k votes+.
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To all the Spurs fans looking at the league table and our games in hand… don’t. You know better.
See you tomorrow
#COYS
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NEW from
@IpsosMORI
: Starmer opens up a clear lead over Johnson in terms of 'net favourability' and Labour draw level with Cons. But that is just part of the story - read on for more....
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NEW from
@IpsosUK
: Public think a Labour govt led by Starmer more likely than a Con govt led by Truss to deliver in 12 / 13 areas.
Biggest leads for Starmer's Labour on improving public services (+13), reducing NHS waiting times (+12), levelling up (+12), fresh start (+10)
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Can’t imagine Penny Mordaunt is thrilled at going on stage vs. Nigel Farage tomorrow night to defend the PM leaving D Day commemorations to do an interview with ITV. Not the ideal setup!
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Wes Streeting is arguably the best communicator in British politics. In media terms it's like trying to land a punch on Mayweather.
"That's a good question to ask 'last minute dot com' Steve Barclay."
Labour's
@wesstreeting
tells Sky News that "it's a bit much to ask me how I'd fund Tory policies", after being asked about the government's pay offer to NHS unions.
📺 Sky 501
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Lots of overnight experts on Northern Ireland are suddenly overnight experts on building design regulations too it seems.
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Keir Starmer really seems to have grown into this campaign.
🚨 NEW: "You have said you would rather have a family member die in the NHS than go privately"
Keir Starmer: "No, I didn't say that"
"Well, you said you'd rather use the NHS than private"
#ElectionShowdown
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NEW from
@IpsosUK
: Labour lead at 11.
Lab 41% (+2 from May)
Con 30% (-3)
Lib Dems 15% (+3)
Green 6% (+1)
Other 8% (-3)
But the real story is on party image. THREAD
1/ Cons at all time low on being seen as 'fit to govern'. Labour lead by default. UK politics in a nutshell?
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🚨New from
@IpsosUK
: Very important numbers. 47% now say Labour ready for government. 🚨
- Highest figure Labour have recorded since losing in 2010
- In fact - last opposition leader to register scores like this was Cameron. Just before he won.
This is significant
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🚨NEW from
@IpsosUK
: Labour lead at 26 🚨
Labour 51% (no change since January)
Conservative 25% (-1)
Lib Dem 9% (no change)
Greens 5% (no change)
Other 9% (-1)
Fieldwork dates 22nd Feb - 1st March
No obvious Windsor bounce for Sunak. THREAD/
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This is an election the Conservatives lost rather than Labour won - John Curtice.
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The Conservative Party appears to have deleted their twitter account.
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Can’t help but think some of these MRPs / models are creating warped and wholly unrealistic expectations for how low the Tories will go. I’m still not really convinced they go sub 150 (despite their campaign’s best efforts)!
Conservatives face election wipeout with Labour set to gain a 416 majority that could see Rishi Sunak LOSING his seat and the Tories being left with just 39 MPs, shock Mail on Sunday poll reveals
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🚨NEW from
@IpsosUK
: Labour lead at 25 points 🚨
Labour 51% (+2 from Dec)
Cons 26% (+3)
Lib Dem 9% (-4)
Green 5% (+2)
Other 10% (-1)
But let's look deeper ... THREAD/
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It’s really annoying to watch TV execs trying to ‘do the right thing’ and end up making things worse. Fawlty Towers? Seriously? People will end up blaming BLM for things they never asked for!
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This election campaign is fast becoming a meeting that could’ve been an email. Dragging a bit.
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I mean 64% are dissatisfied with his job performance and the majority want him to resign but other than that they love him 🤷♀️
'People love Boris Johnson. They want to see him, they want to touch him, they want to have their kids photographed with him. Keir Starmer hasn't got a tenth of his charisma.'
Andrew Pierce discusses the Prime Minister's popularity.
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Rumours Yvette Cooper could return as Shadow Home Secretary. Would be a big statement that Corbyn serious about security & government.
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Big win in Tooting for Labour. 10 point swing from Con to Lab. London going big for Labour
#GE2017
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🚨New from
@ipsosuk
/
@standardnews
- Labour lead at 22 🚨
Labour 47% (+3 from May)
Conservatives 25% (-3)
Lib Dems 13% (-)
Greens 8% (+2)
Other 8% (-)
1,003 GB adults interviewed by telephone 14-20 June
Short 🧵
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I don’t understand why it’s so hard to look at the locals and say both a) Tory brand is in deep trouble and last night was terrible for them and b) There is evidence of a lack of enthusiasm for Lab that can’t be ignored. Its what public polls have said for ages. 1/2
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Final thought of the night. I don’t say it lightly but I think it’s verging on disinformation to suggest these local elections point to a hung parliament. You absolutely have to make clear that’s *if* people vote the same way *and* no change in Scotland.
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Cons currently on 469 losses across GB as it stands. Few councils remaining. Of course this can only tell us so much about a future GE for lots of reasons - but it’s fast becoming a very bad night for them
#LocalElections2022
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🚨 1st GE poll from
@IpsosUK
has Labour lead at +20 🚨
Labour 43%
Conservative 23%
Reform 9%
Greens 9%
Lib Dems 8%
Others 8%
1,014 GB adults interviewed by phone
Fieldwork dates 31st May - 4th June
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Speaks to my point the other day. John McDonnell is a far superior politician to Jeremy Corbyn.
“Yes it is, it’s a terrorist organisation”
Labour’s
@johnmcdonnellMP
says that Hamas is a terrorist organisation, after Jeremy Corbyn refused to call them a terror group when asked by
@piersmorgan
#Peston
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As Sue Gray delivers report / update to Downing Street our
@IpsosMORI
Political Monitor shows Keir Starmer open up an 18-point lead over Boris Johnson on who would make the 'most capable PM'...
THREAD
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Probably the most brutal polling for the Conservatives I’ve seen from us.
6 in 10 tell
@IpsosUK
they don’t care who the next Tory leader is
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Not saying pollsters are nervous but one just messaged me to say 'see you at the inquiry'
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For some reason Spurs have stuck the fans as far away from the pitch as possible. Social distancing?
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@tomhfh
It’s not funny though, it’s just crass,
To be honest, when it comes to Eng v Ger there are worse chants. But the whole Second World War angle just brings out the absolute worst in (mainly male) England fans.
Part of the appeal of the womens game is leaving that stuff behind.
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NEW
@IpsosMORI
/ Evening Standard. Tory lead at 4 points - Greens up to 8(!)
Con 42 (+1)
Lab 38 (-3)
Green 8 (+3)
Lib Dems 7 (+1)
Other 5 (-2)
1,056 GB adults interviewed by phone 29th Jan - 4th Feb, 2021. Changes from December. More to follow.
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For what it's worth, if there is an award for backbencher of the year then
@DavidLammy
should win it. From Grenfell to knife crime to Windrush he's been on top of his game in a way few others have been. Really stands out.
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At some point Westminster will need to engage with the fact we’re going to have to change the axis on this chart to fit in the % that think Brexit is having a negative impact
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These results look like something of an unmitigated disaster for the Conservatives
~ roughly half of council seats lost
~ 3rd behind Lib Dems in seats
~ 26 pt swing in Blackpool
~ Khan comfortable
~ Andy Street loses in West Midlands
Mitigation?
~ Lab PNS lead only 9
~
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The reason it’s hard to find a read across for Galloway’s win in Rochdale to national politics is because there isn’t one.
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I’ve heard there’s going to be a round of applause for couriers and delivery drivers tomorrow.
Some time between 9 and 5.
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🚨NEW from
@IpsosUK
: Lab lead at 23/ Cons at joint record lowest share since 1978 🚨
Labour 42% (-1)
Conservative 19% (-4)
Reform UK 15% (+6) = highest with Ipsos
Lib Dems 11% (+3)
Greens 7% (-2)
1402 GB adults by phone 21-24 Jun
+/- from 31 May- 4 Jun
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Labour look like they are wildly overreacting over ULEZ.
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Reminder: at the beginning of April 52% of the public told
@IpsosUK
they think Johnson should resign if issued with a fixed penalty notice
#Partygate
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How popular is Suella Braverman with the British public?
16% favourable
51% unfavourable
Source:
@IpsosUK
1,055 interviews.
Fieldwork October 27-30th
More:
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In our
@IpsosUK
Brexit polling today there are two devastating figures:
1) Just 13% (!) think Brexit has had a positive impact on the UK's ability to control immigration / borders. Such a key factor in Leave winning.
2) 7 in 10 of those under 35 think it has been a failure.
More from
@IpsosUK
/
@standardnews
on the impact of Brexit.
- 7 in 10 say negative impact on economy
- 55% say negative impact on growth prospects
- Just 13% say it's had a positive impact on ability to control immigration / borders (!)
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NEW from
@IpsosUK
Rachel Reeves preferred as Chancellor to Jeremy Hunt. 35% to 29%.
First Labour lead on this measure since June 2013.
7 in 10 expect economy to worsen in the next 12 months.
More here:
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Sobering video from Martin Lewis. UK faces a 'financial cataclysm' as energy bills rise to unaffordable levels in October, need for 'warm spaces' this winter, mortgages up, unsecured debt too. Grim. Political implications secondary but likely huge.
I'm afraid a financial cataclysm will hit the UK roughly the time the new PM starts, devastating lives
This is a video letter to u and Conservative leadership candidates, to help u, and plea for them to prepare and prevent the worst; energy, mortgages, cards & more. Pls share
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🚨 New from
@IpsosUK
. 2023: The year Rishi Sunak became (almost) as unpopular as his party 🚨
Net favourability
Jan 2023
Sunak: -9
Conservatives: -26
November 2023
Sunak: -28
Conservatives: -33
Short 🧵
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In today's
@IpsosMORI
Political Monitor Jeremy Corbyn registers the worst net satisfaction ratings for a Leader of the Opposition we have ever seen in the series.
Satisfied 17%
Dissatisfied 75%
Don't know 8%
Net -58
This matters but will it keep him out of Downing Street?
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So as it stands. Our
@IpsosMORI
prediction poll vs current vote share (in brackets)
Con 44 (44)
Lab 33 (32)
Lib Dem 12 (11)
Green 3 (3)
Brexit party 2 (2)
Two elections in a row spot on...Exit poll on point too!
A good day in the office.
#GE2019
#exitpoll
#GeneralElection
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The most tragic thing about Labour? Where is this fabled Corbyn radical policy agenda they are sacrificing themselves for? What is it?
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I love everything about this frenzy and you do too. Stop pretending.
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NEW from
@IpsosUK
/
@standardnews
. Labour lead at +23. Changes from Feb.
- Labour 49% (-2)
- Conservative 26% (+1)
- Lib Dems 11% (+2)
- Greens 6% (+1)
- Other 8% (-1)
1,004 GB telephone interviews March 22-29
So no change. BUT there is ALOT more going on 🧵
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New polling from
@IpsosUK
highlights challenge new PM will face.
A Lab govt under Starmer seen as more likely than new Con govt to
- improve public services +19
- reduce regional inequalities +13
- reduce cost of living +12
- act with integrity +12
- offer GB a fresh start +11
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Starmer promises a load of stuff to get elected Lab leader, ditches it, pundits say this was to be expected.
Truss says ‘tax cuts no handouts’, pundits say she doesn’t really mean it wait until she gets in.
No wonder the public don’t like politicians. Dishonesty everywhere 🤷♀️
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Would be quite something if we start the day speculating about London and end it with Labour taking West Midlands.
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It’s a remarkable trend that many on the left now seem actively hostile to Remain voters despite Remain voters being mainly from the left. Seems to have sprung up overnight. Almost, dare I say, coordinated?
I hate Brexit because 52% of the country voted to make the other 48% excruciatingly tedious on the internet.
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Front page of the Times repeats the line that Thursdays locals point to a hung parliament.
What a load of nonsense.
You have to believe Labour need a 14 pt lead for a majority & they are only 9 pts ahead because that’s how people voted in the locals.
Do we really think that?
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New from
@IpsosUK
: 51% of Brits think Brexit has had a negative impact on the UK.
Just 22% think the impact has been positive. 22% say it has made no difference (the rest don't know).
Net positive / negative is -29. Lowest in our series going back to GE2019.
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Shout out to the exit poll and all at GfK (& Ipsos) that worked on it. Right again.
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Posting this again as
@HackneyAbbott
was told on
#bbcqt
last night that Labour was behind in 'the polls'. Not strictly true. Labour is behind with YouGov, who publish most often, but with 8 other pollsters Labour is either neck and neck or slightly ahead.
Important point when reading the polls
Since the beginning of Nov only one pollster that is not YouGov has given the Tories a lead. That was TNS on Nov 12 and the lead was 1 pt. They now have Lab +3.
7 others all have a tie or Labour ahead.
Source:
@britainelects
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🚨NEW
@IpsosUK
/
@standardnews
: Labour lead up to 22 🚨
Labour 49% (+8 from Dec)
Conservative 27% (+3)
Lib Dems 7% (-6)
Green 7% (-2)
Reform 4% (-3)
Other 5% (-1)
Data below. But what else? 🧵
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If you’re just waking up:
- Labour gain Wellingborough. 28.6pt swing.
- Labour gain Kingswood. 16.3pt swing.
Reform gets 13% and 10% respectively.
Terrible night for Sunak and the Conservatives. No sign of a comeback here.
But all the usual caveats about by-elections apply.
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Understandable photo op from Anna here.
@Number10cat
has higher favourables than any leading UK politician from the recent past.
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New from
@IpsosUK
: Labour more trusted than the Conservatives to:
- Have the right policies for the GB economy 40% - 33%
- Manage Britain's taxes / public spending: 38% - 32%
- Reduce you / your family's cost of living: 39% - 28%
FW Sep 23 - 25 (finished Sunday)
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The clarity of this argument is going to be difficult for unionists to counter in the Scottish Indy debate.
🏴 Actor Ewan McGregor backs Scottish independence:
"The Scottish people want to stay in the European Union, and the English don't. So I just think we're going in different directions. So I think probably
#itstime
.
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Just a hunch but I think Rochdale will have virtually zero impact on Westminster politics in the long run. This weeks economic figures and Thursday’s by elections will see to that.
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Elsewhere in the poll we asked head to heads on who would make the most capable PM
Johnson 31%
Starmer 51%
Sunak 39%
Starmer 39%
Truss 35%
Starmer 41%
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NEW
@IpsosMORI
/
@EveningStandard
*Labour lead at 5*
Labour 42% (+5)
Conservative 37% (-3)
Lib Dems 8% (nc)
Greens 5% (nc)
1,007 interviewed by telephone Oct 22-28 (changes from Sept)
NOTE - fieldwork before EHRC report & fallout.
More to follow.
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NEW
@IpsosMORI
/
@standardnews
Jeremy Corbyn's leader satisfaction rating falls to worst ever achieved by a leader of the opposition in our series - dating back to 1977.
Satisfied 16%
Dissatisfied 76%
Net -60
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Final net satisfaction ratings for outgoing PMs
Thatcher - 46
Major -27
Blair -27
Brown -24
Cameron -38
May -44
Source:
@IpsosMORI
Political Monitor
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Polls: Tories gain a couple of points.
Commentators: Sunak surge!
Polls: But they’re still on 25-30….like it might just be margin of err-
Commentators: I’ve seen enough, Tories to win!
😂
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NEW from
@IpsosMORIScot
/
@STVNews
Should Scotland be an independent country?
(among likely voters)
Yes 58%
No 42%
Inc DKs
Yes 55%
No 39%
DK 6%
n=1,045 Scots aged 16+.
f/w 2nd - 9th Oct, 2020
More to follow.
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Looks possible Khan wins with highest share of any Mayor of London ever. Using 1st round as like for like comparison.
#LondonMayoralElection
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Could Keir Starmer be finding his voice in the current energy crisis? Could this be his 'David Cameron moment'?
Quite possibly. Will explain. Quick thread:
"Freeze energy prices and fund that with a windfall tax from the oil and gas companies who are making excessive profits"
Sir
@Keir_Starmer
says solving the energy price crisis is "a simple political choice" - he explains his plan to
@theJeremyVine
.
Do you back it?
#JeremyVine
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Still seeing people bemused Cons leading polls. I don’t think it’s hard.
1) Won big in 2019
2) Retaining most of that support - Brexit done
3) Con supporters will tell you govt not to blame for COVID / doing as well as can be expected
4) Vaccine
5) Lab still have work to do
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And by banter I mean they should do it because it could work.
Lots of pro Trump commentators about to do some screeching U turns on how being POTUS aged 80+ is fine actually.
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NEW from
@IpsosUK
: Rishi Sunak's favourability scores fall to their lowest since he became Chancellor:
Favourable: 26% (-10 from March)
Unfavourable: 44% (+11)
Net: -18
Sunak has only ever had a negative favourable rating one other time in our series (-6 in Jan 2022)
THREAD
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🚨NEW from
@IpsosUK
: Labour lead unchanged at 20 points🚨
Labour 44% (no change from Sept)
Conservative 24% (-)
Lib Dem 13% (+1)
Green 9% (+1)
Others 11% (nc)
Labour lead was 21 pts last November (just after Sunak took over)
Fieldwork Oct 11-18th
Quick 🧵
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It’s possible to not like Netanyahu whilst also thinking it is utterly unacceptable to be at a wreath laying ceremony for Black September terrorists, it isn’t either / or and to try and deflect in that way is pathetic.
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Hang on. Did Labour have a rally today in favour of a General Election whilst simultaneously not calling a vote of no confidence?
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🚨New from
@IpsosUK
: Labour lead at 21 🚨
Labour 41% (-3 from April)
Conservative 20% (+1)
Lib Dems 11% (+2)
Greens 11% (+2)
Reform 9% (-4)
Others 8% (+2)
N=1,008. fieldwork 8-14 May
Tables & more to follow. Key trends on our elections website here:
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Some of these poll leads for Labour are mind blowing.
For context, the largest lead I can ever find
@IpsosUK
recording for Labour going back 40+ years is +39. In Dec 1994 we had Lab 61, Con 22.
Lab won in 1997 by 44 to 31 in GB. So these things do narrow but...
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NEW
@IpsosMORI
/ Evening Standard
- Starmer holds best net satisfaction scores for a leader of the opposition since Blair
- But Johnson still holds narrow lead over Starmer on 'most capable PM'
Context important - read on for more...
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