Pivot Point Analysis
@pivotpointelect
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election analysis, and more, by @bluearrowmaps @zach_solomon1 and @alexmpastor
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Pinned Tweet
Updated Gubernatorial Ratings moving two races
IN: Safe R to Likely R
NC: Likely D to Safe D
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FWIW our internal model gives Kamala a ~60% chance of winning the EC
The 538 and Nate Silver models are now basically opposites of one another.
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Race Call:
Daniel McCaffrey (D) has won election to the PA Supreme Court.
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EV numbers might not be much to write home about... Compared to 2020. Come for the
@RalstonReports
shout-out, stay for the incredible analysis by
@DjsokeSpeaking
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Across Alaska, Republicans are pulling out of races that voters have given them the ability to contest. To learn why we asked
@alaskanrobby
break it down for us and explain what Ranked Choice Voting has to do with it!
#AKpol
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Introducing Pivot Point Analysis!
Our first article, by native Kentuckian
@bluearrowMaps
, looks into the role Northern Kentucky will play in the upcoming gubernatorial race.
#electiontwitter
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One man is reshaping two statewide races in Utah.
@zach_solomon1
breaks down Tim Ballard's impact on the Senate and Attorney General's race from his meteoric rice to his seemingly inevitable fall.
#ElectionTwitter
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Bordering the two biggest countries in the world, the importance of Myanmar's civil war far outpaces the coverage in the West.
@alexmpastor
sought to learn
#WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar
in this Q&A with
@nicholas6284
.
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@zach_solomon1
walks us through MI's Democratic primary tonight where "Uncommitted" may pick up delegates. MI has the largest Arab American population in the US and along with young voters are not happy with Pres. Biden's handling of the Israel/Gaza war.
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Our own resident Nevadan
@zach_solomon1
writes about the impending chaos ensuing this week with the GOP primary on Tuesday and caucus on Thursday taking place in the "First in the West" state. Check out his article here.
#wematter
#electiontwitter
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Before Election Day read our article on Eastern Kentucky, the last in our series looking into the political dynamics of the state by
@bluearrowMaps
.
#KYGov
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THANK YOU to everyone that has helped us get to this stage as quickly as we have!! In addition to the whole crew at Pivot Point, a special shout out to all of the contributors we've had this far
@GTCarfree
@samshirazim
@blockedfreq
!!
#electiontwitter
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8
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Mark Robinson and North Carolina Republicans are reeling from his latest scandal. Find out where this leaves them with less than two months to go before election day.
#electiontwitter
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Fox News and other recent polls have shown a close race in Virginia.
@samshirazim
helps us understand what's really going on in Virginia.
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A fiery debate broke out this week whether recent Dem success paints too rosey a picture about their chances in the 2024 election. Contributor
@samshirazim
looks into whether, as some say, Dems have issues with low propensity voters.
#electiontwitter
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We spoke to
@nicholas6284
again about the latest in the Myanmar civil war. Click below for the Q&A.
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With last week's announcement, President Biden has brought America closer than ever (which is still pretty far away) to expanding High Speed Rail outside the Northeast Corridor.
@GTCarfree
breaks at all down here. (Links working now)
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key local Teamsters defy leadership and keep on truckin' with Democrats
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Happy New Year! We're starting off 2024 strong with an interactive map of the 2023 rail announcements by our guest contributor
@GTCarfree
.
#transit
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Today's hotly contested primary will determine who faces former Gov. Larry Hogan in the fall. Can Hogan play hero for Republicans?
@JamesLNPol
takes a look below.
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We wrap up our series examining the
@NCGOP
gerrymander.
@bluearrowMaps
breaks down everything you need to know about the NC congressional maps.
#ncpol
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The one with Mark Robinson: you made your bed, now lie in it
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We covered the Senate race in Montana in the wake of the debate this week. With one month left, Sheehy is skipping his own float at the MSU Homecoming Parade in Bozeman... where he lives.
Following reporting that he's going to "extreme lengths" to dodge press, this morning Tim Sheehy skipped the MSU Homecoming Parade in Bozeman. He couldn't even be bothered to show up to his own float.
Guess who did show up?
@jontester
.
#mtsen
#mtpol
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Will Senate Democrats continue outrunning the top of the ticket? Will Tester and Brown pull off another miracle? Click below to see the (second) biggest show in town!
#Senate
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Wow 1000 followers!!!! Thanks to the team at Pivot Point
@alexmpastor
@bluearrowMaps
@zach_solomon1
and all our contributors! But most of all, sincerely thank you to all 1000 followers!! We literally couldn't have done it without you
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Breaking: A spokesperson for Governor Glenn Youngkin’s PAC says
@GovernorVA
will no longer support North Carolina Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson’s campaign for Governor.
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Election nights can be stressful. In this article
@bluearrowMaps
gives a crash course on what counties to keep an eye on to get an early idea which way things are shaking out on Nov. 5.
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Before tomorrow's election take a look at our article on the the Mississippi governor's race between Tate Reeves and Brandon Presley.
#msgov
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As Donald Trump turns to the longest general election ever, he has reason to be worried about his footing with independent voters. Contributor
@samshirazim
looks into Trump's potential issues with these voters this fall.
#electiontwitter
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Pivot Point's deep dive into the North Carolina Republican's brutal gerrymander.
@bluearrowMaps
breaks it all down the state Senate maps in the first of our series.
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If you're tired of "analysis" that ages this poorly give Pivot Point a try.
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Part II of our deep dive into the Republican gerrymander in North Carolina. This time
@bluearrowMaps
looks into the State House maps.
#electiontwitter
#ncpol
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Stay tuned later this week for
@bluearrowMaps
second article in our North Carolina gerrymandering series
#ncpol
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In an era of limited ticket splitting, Bob Casey consistently outruns his fellow Democrats. Contributor
@blockedfreq
looks into the emerging delta between the presidential and senatorial races in Pennsylvania this fall.
#papol
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@bluearrowMaps
3rd article in our series on the regions that will define next week's Kentucky election - this time Louisville and its collar counties. Then check out bonus HD93 coverage at the bottom of the article.
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Last year we spoke with
@nicholas6284
about the civil war in
#myanmar
. We checked back in with him to see how this undercovered war is playing out.
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👀 Thank you to everyone who helped us gain 450% in followers! Special thanks to
@lxeagle17
,
@admcrlsn
,
@DjsokeSpeaking
and
@Athenas_Son_V
. We're forever grateful
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@bluearrowMaps
take a look at the first 5 State Leg seats we're keeping an eye on. Let us know what you think!
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A *ahem* in-depth look at the
@KamalaHarris
VP shortlist and more with great insight and analysis by
@bluearrowMaps
.
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We have Mississippi rated as likely Republican, but here is a quick guide to the counties we're watching tonight to see if Presley is able to flip.
#MSGov
#ElectionDay2023
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Everything always happens seems like an apt description of this summer. In a two part series we are going to examine the anomaly that is 2024. In the first article we look at it from the perspective of the Harris campaign.
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More State Legislative seats to keep an eye on now that we're in a full on sprint towards election day by
@bluearrowMaps
#electiontwitter
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FWIW our internal model gives Harris a 59% chance of winning with just over a month to go. Popular vote at Harris +3.25
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It's primary day! Not to be confused with GOP caucus day (that's on Thursday)
#wematter
#Elections
Our own resident Nevadan
@zach_solomon1
writes about the impending chaos ensuing this week with the GOP primary on Tuesday and caucus on Thursday taking place in the "First in the West" state. Check out his article here.
#wematter
#electiontwitter
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Updated ratings from Pivot Point!
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As we enter this long general election season,
@samshirazim
shows us how to ride the "pollercoaster"!
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Tim Walz has been the VP pick for about 24 hours. Read how we went from relatively unknown outside of Twitter and Minnesota to the top of Kamala's pick.
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ICYMI: our article on the unfolding Mark Robinson situation™️
The one with Mark Robinson: you made your bed, now lie in it
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@blockedfreq
: "PA is going to see more GDP than a third world country shoveled into every street corner from Erie to King of Prussia."
#papol
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@blockedfreq
wrote another article for us jam packed with PA insights. This one focused on how all that has happened in the last month shakes out in Pennsylvania.
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We review the current Senate landscape below. Take a look!
Will Senate Democrats continue outrunning the top of the ticket? Will Tester and Brown pull off another miracle? Click below to see the (second) biggest show in town!
#Senate
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As
@DjsokeSpeaking
pointed out for Pivot Point, Democrat's VBM numbers won't look anything like 2020 at all. More will vote on Election day, and more will VBM later in the cycle.
🚨 In PENNSYLVANIA, "we're starting with a more Republican, less Democratic absentee [mail-in ballot] request list" for the 2024 election...
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@bluearrowMaps
looks at counties that have matched the popular vote in the 21st century and which will likely keep their streaks alive in 24.
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Race Call:
Kentucky Democrat Adrielle Camuel has won the special election for HD93.
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Anytime!
Thanks for this opportunity to give my hot take on the Virginia polling discourse
The TLDR version is below
Still hoping for more polling here to get a better sense of exactly what’s going on
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As ballot requests start streaming in now would be a good time to take a look at our recent article by
@DjsokeSpeaking
comparing early votes in 2020 vs what we're going to see in 2024
#electiontwitter
JMC'S EARLY VOTE TRACKER (9/10)
1. 70K more mail REQUESTS posted since yesterday from FL/GA/NC - new total is 802K requests
2. NC is the only state with statewide party data (for FL, only 5 counties are in). NC requests are 40-22-38% D/R/I. At this point in time in 2020,
(1/3)
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Key local chapters back Harris after Teamsters leadership decision to stay neutral earlier this month.
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Check out Pivot Point's second article continuing the trip around Kentucky. This time
@bluearrowMaps
explores the role western Kentucky will play in next month's election.
#electiontwitter
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Before the election Pivot Point published an article highlighting 10 counties to keep an eye on in the
#msgov
race. In this article we see how
@BrandonPresley
did in them. He flipped 5 of a possible 6.
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How and when American's vote this year will look strange if you're expecting a repeat of 2020. What Sam says here is pretty much right, but if you want a couple thousand more words on it check out
@DjsokeSpeaking
article for us -
Also trends I expect in Virginia and across much of the country compared to 2020
Mail: Less Dem and less of it
In-Person Early: Less Dem and more of it
Election Day: Less GOP and less of it
But overall there will be be less polarization across voting methods
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Thanks to you all. With our first year (almost) over/heading into our first full year, we're proud of what we've accomplished so far/and excited for what's next. 2024 will be a momentous year and we'll be there covering American elections without spin or pre-determined narrative.
Thankful for anyone who wrote for, appeared in, supported, followed and/or read
@pivotpointelect
. Especially
@bluearrowMaps
,
@zach_solomon1
,
@admcrlsn
,
@GTCarfree
and
@nicholas6284
.
#electiontwitter
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@maxtmcc
We kept it at likely, for now. But fully expect it can move quickly once polling comes in.
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Our contributors
@GTCarfree
@samshirazim
@blockedfreq
@jnewt_maps
@davidsacc12345
@DjsokeSpeaking
have helped us immensely over the last year. Please follow them all, you won't regret it. And a special thank you to
@nicholas6284
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If you missed our article breaking down the Sean Reyes scandal and its connection to the Utah Senate race click this link.
#utpol
Ahem.
Attorney General Sean Reyes will announce tomorrow that he will not seek re-election next year, becoming the third consecutive AG whose tenure was tarnished by scandal.
#utpol
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Pivot Point's look into the dynamics of the Mississippi governor's race and whether Brandon Presley has a chance by
@alexmpastor
.
#electiontwitter
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Our article looking at Dem's chances in GA after their upset in 2020 if you missed it on Friday.
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Once more, if you're tired of analysis like this from Chris Cillizza try Pivot Point.
A friend recently texted me -- with an explanation for why non-true believers might vote for Trump.
It's below. I also wrote about it in my latest newsletter. Read it for FREE. Subscribe via the link in my bio!
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Angela Alsobrooks will face off against former Gov. Larry Hogan in the fall. Click the tweet below to read our article from earlier today.
Today's hotly contested primary will determine who faces former Gov. Larry Hogan in the fall. Can Hogan play hero for Republicans?
@JamesLNPol
takes a look below.
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Could a sharper contrast between VP picks possibly be drawn?
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When we get an article from
@blockedfreq
we know it's going to be a doozy
I try not to put my blind faith in anyone.
But you’d be a fool not to take Joshua seriously.
No one knows Pennsylvania better than him.
And he won’t sugarcoat it if things turn south for Harris in the next 49 days.
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Great thread by
@alaskanrobby
on his new article for Pivot Point!
Peltola won in June 2022 partly because not enough Begich voters ranked Palin as their 2nd choice.
Instead of trying to win 2nd choice voters, the AKGOP is avoid RCV altogether in most races.
I wrote about this effort in-depth and “ballot exhaustion” for
@pivotpointelect
👇
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Here is the second in our series taking a look at the upcoming Kentucky gubernatorial election. This time we take a look at Western Kentucky.
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The story the whole political world is on pins and needles over...
@bluearrowMaps
takes a look at the next 5 state leg. races to keep an eye on in this in-depth article.
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Vote 3 ends with Jordan losing 25 votes. He could only afford to lose 5 members of the Republican caucus.
#electiontwitter
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"The Democratic Party’s experience in Florida since 2016 has been equivalent to being hit in the head with a folding chair in a WWE match. Repeatedly. With a never-ending supply of folding chairs."
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As their introductory rally ends, we thought we'd put together an article laying out the veepstakes and why Walz shot to the top of the list!
#HarrisWalz2024
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Are you tired of "assertion not analysis" by Chris Cillizza? Try
@pivotpointelect
!
On Monday, I did something stupid.
I tweeted out that Josh Shapiro was going to be the VP pick.
Which isn't analysis. It's assertion.
Do I think Shapiro made the most sense as the pick? I did! And do! And explained why in my newsletter!
But, I didn't do that analysis in my
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We have a monster of an article coming out tomorrow.
@bluearrowMaps
dissects the brutal gerrymander of the NC State House orchestrated by Republicans allowing themselves a super-majority in what is close to a 50-50 state.
#ncpol
#electiontwitter
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Reposting Pivot Point's Q&A with
@nicholas6284
on the current dynamic of the Myanmar civil war.
#Myanmar
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Race Call:
Both Issue 1 and Issue 2 pass in Ohio.
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The CNN story has been up for two days, Mark Robinson is going to be on the ballot and it begs the question... What impact will this have on the Trump campaign in NC and nationally?
#ncpol
Mark Robinson and North Carolina Republicans are reeling from his latest scandal. Find out where this leaves them with less than two months to go before election day.
#electiontwitter
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