David
@davidsacc12345
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🇯🇴🇺🇸🇮🇹 — Developer, cartographer, election nerd, Braves fan — Do everything in love
Georgia, USA
Joined January 2023
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POLITICAL GERRYMANDERS ARE DIFFERENT FROM RACIAL GERRYMANDERS
Until y'all stop gerrymandering New Mexico, Nevada and Illinois, we won't stop gerrymandering NC,GA,and Louisiana
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The level of hypocrisy is so funny
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Her district is Biden+78... what the hell
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If your takeaway from this conference is that Biden is senile because he said Egypt and not Mexico in like 5 minutes of unscripted remarks then you’re stupid
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I prefer having progressive suburban democrats over conservative rural democrats
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JUST BECAUSE A REPUBLICAN GOVERNOR FOLLOWS BASIC ELECTION LAW DOESN'T MEAN THEY'RE GOOD
@davidsacc12345
If I were you I'd bump Kemp up one wrung for having election integrity in 2020
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There's no timelines in which Merrick Garland is the Attorney General on January 21, 2025
During a fundraiser in Atlanta, Biden says "By the way you have someone here, a former Deputy Attorney General of the Obama-Biden administration, who I've warned her, if I win, watch out. Sally Yates."
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The fact New Hampshire is the most irreligious state in the northeast by far while also being the reddest never fails to amuse me
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If Biden wins and a SCOTUS vacancy opens up, I think he'll be able to fill it even if there is a GOP senate. Obviously the GOP can pull a Merrick Garland and just keep the seat open but while doing that for one year was politically viable, four years of that isn't really possible
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Under Fair Maps, House Democrats would gain 31 seats but lose 21 seats relative to 2020, resulting in a 231D-204R House composition
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The reinvention of Blue Dogs from a shitty socially conservative Southern democrat caucus into a rural left-populist caucus (even though it's lost almost all of it's members) is glorious
Becca and Adam are two normal people who are America’s best shot at defeating two of the weirdest far-right extremists in Congress.
They’ll always put their rural districts first, and they’ll always protect our democracy. We’re prepared to do everything we can to help them win.
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My dad thinks that both Trump and DeSantis will lose and a moderate will win the primary. He's so confident we've bet money on it
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This is a very interesting response to someone that is running against him, and it shows that he's either winning in a landslide or getting 5%, no other options
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How the GOP thinks Mississippi will vote if they run on trans issues vs how it'll actually vote
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California if it voted like Mississippi. Still D+8 lmao
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- New maps in Wisconsin
- New York IRC maps dead on arrival
- Tammy Murphy's campaign is falling apart
- The GOP is killing themselves over IVF
- Trump was just fined 500 million dollars
- Libs of TikTok is trans
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Wait Presley only needs 64% of the remaining ballots???
I thought he needed like 90% but it seems like most of the remaining votes are in Hinds
Either way, I'd still call it for Reeves if I was a news agency. There's no way Presley is winning 64% of the remaining ballots
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I asked ChatGPT to generate a hypothetical presidential election between John Bel Edwards and Phil Scott
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If Trump isn't convicted, I'd assume that there'd be no change to the current situation (Lean D but still gonna be a close race)
but if Trump is convicted of any of his charges by election day, it's certainly possible that 2024 might be bluer than 2018 and 2008
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This is all one metro area and I'm tired of pretending it's not
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The 2025 Blue Dogs are gonna be special ❤️
2023 was a big year for us 🐶
we chose 3 new co-chairs, gained new members, and served as a voice for the rural places, working families, tradespeople, & fishermen we represent
we focused on our districts and stood up to House leaders who tossed bipartisanship aside
a recap 🧵
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Buckhead, GA
Romney+26.8
Clinton+6.5
Biden+17.6
Warnock '22+25
Buckhead has a total household income of 9.1 billion, and business income is in the hundreds of billions
Additionally, 81.5% of Buckhead has a bachelors degree and 35% has a graduate degree
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2022 Minnesota Gubernatorial election - Tim Walz (D-inc) vs Mike Lindell (R). Walz won by a landslide 21 points in a neutral year, with strong margins in the suburbs, the northeast around the iron range and Duluth, and the southeast, while also holding his own in the rurals.
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Parts of the Deep South that are better than Mumbai
Red = Worse
Green = Better
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What Katie Hill did was a massive ethics violations. Just because people like Matt Gaetz have done worse stuff, it doesn't mean she deserves "justice"
Katie Hill deserves justice for what was done to her
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Race projection: Adam Frisch has won in CO-03☕️☕️☕️
This is a R to D flip in a completely shocking upset
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Kevin McCarthy's fundraising machine being taken away has absolutely destroyed CA GOP fundraising. It's not just Ken Calvert who's fundraising has tanked, Mike Garcia's has as well and if I have to guess, all of the other battleground CA GOP reps are going to take a hit
CA-41 (Riverside County) is one of the most swingy districts in America.
Here COH right now in CA41
Will Rollins (D): 2.4 Mill
Ken Calvert (R): 2.3 Mill
For the first time, Rollins had a COH advantage despite Ken Calvert having a four month fundraising start.
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I didn't expect to be mapping this but here's the results of the 2023 Virginia's 4th CD special.
This election was historic, in two ways: it marked the election of Virginia's first black congresswoman, and she won in an absolute landslide, winning safe Republican counties.
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@AugustaPatriot
Dude the Louisiana map is about to be struck down. You're the one coping about it thinking the VRA is about to be nuked
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If it wasn't obvious enough he can't be trusted about ANYTHING because he wants the GOP to win
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My dad has been saying that Joe Biden is "ruining the country," BUT he also believes Trump should straight up be EXECUTED and thinks Zelenskyy is the best world leader
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Here's a map of the 2006 GA Agriculture Commissioner election. Dixiecrat Tommy Irvin, in office since 1969, beat the future commissioner Gary Black in a massive landslide to win one final term as Agriculture Commissioner.
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I think Biden definitely has problems in Nevada, but if it was the next Florida we'd see warning signs like what happened in 2018 in Florida
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MODEL LAUNCH! My 2023 Wisconsin Supreme Court model is now live. My model gives judge Janet Protasiewicz an 85% chance of winning, based on turnout data and other factors. The topline rating for the race is D+7.3.
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If GA gets another black district in ATL this should be the map
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It seems like the people working on Angus King's website accidentally clicked Push on their commits
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I feel like ever since Tim Ryan did pretty good in 2022 and Issue 1 won by the margin it did, the vibes in Ohio have shifted towards the Democrats. I know this is EXTREMELY anecdotal though
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Can the narrative that Virginia Dems are full of CIA loving conservadems finally die now that every conservadem in a competitive race is down right now
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Thanks to the hard work of
@BenJ_Rosenblatt
, here's the 2023 NY-3 US House election by electoral district.
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If Ken Buck is replaced by a far right loon then it opens up the path for 8D Colorado near the end of the decade
NEWS: The knives are out for Rep. Ken Buck, one of the key lawmakers standing in way of a Biden impeachment.
There’s a serious effort to recruit a primary challenger, while MTG says he shouldn’t serve on Judiciary or whip team anymore. w/
@AnnieGrayerCNN
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?????
@joeshmoe2005
Wild is a bad incumbent, Cartwright is a very good incumbent
That simple
Also Wild barely won in 2022, well Cartwright got a decent enough margin
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Dallas is trending Dem faster but Georgia is a smaller state so Atlanta can easily turn the state really blue really fast
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I'm not gonna lie, I think that the Democrats are pretty heavy favorites in the House right now. They'd only need to win 2 of these tossups to take control
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I'm getting somewhat convinced that 2024 is going to be a 2008 repeat if Trump is the nominee.
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My new favorite map: the results of the 2023 and 2018 Czech presidential elections by precinct. Babiš uniformly underperformed Zeman everywhere, including in Prague (which is Drahoš' home city.) There was barely any realignment; every demographic loved Pavel and hated Babiš.
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meanwhile Mississippi if it voted like a normal well adjusted state
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2022 elections in GA with 2020 turnout*
* = read the whole thread
Attorney General: R+4.0
Governor: R+6.2
Lt. Governor: R+3.7
US Senate: D+2.2
Secretary of State: R+7.9
US Senate Runoff: D+4.2
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Ettingermentum is a content stealer and plagiarizer and the only people that like him are low IQ tankies. He got cooked
Also, his concern for Palestinians is definitely fake
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If god forbid anything happens to Sonia Sotomayor and she gets replaced by Aileen Cannon, it would mean that Samuel Alito would be the one writing the majority opinion on everything and you'd forever be shameful for saying it wouldn't matter
It doesn't matter.
Thr court is already a hard right 6-3.
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SUSANNA GIBSON IS LEADING SUSANNA GIBSON IS LEADING SUSANNA GIBSON IS LEADING SUSANNA GIBSON IS LEADING SUSANNA GIBSON IS LEADING SUSANNA GIBSON IS LEADING SUSANNA GIBSON IS LEADING
The madness never ends, folks
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Baby numbers
I guess the takeaway from how the Senate candidates did is that running to the left hurts far more than it helps, rural outreach is still vital, and people want moderation. It let Ryan outran Biden by 3% in Cuyahoga, 2% in Franklin, 3% in Lucas, 5% in Ashtabula, and 6% in Erie.
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@GovernorHobbs
Governor Hobbs, I speak for all Arizonans when I say that you need to arrest Kari Lake for her crimes against Arizona and it's people. We stand with you!
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Already blue counties that just keep getting bluer (Manhattan and SF are also colored in)
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Senator Wexton
Say it with me:
👏 Governor 👏 Spanberger 👏
👏 Senator 👏 Kaine 👏
👏 Senator 👏 Wexton 👏
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Midnight map (and my return to America maps). Freedom caucus chair and firebrand
@RepScottPerry
beat Democrat Shamaine Daniels in a closer-than-expected margin. Still, he overperformed Biden in the midst of the PA blue wave.
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The 2020 President to 2022 Congress swings in TX are so funny lol
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South Texas is gonna (in terms of voting patterns) end up like the Central Valley, not West Virginia. I thought this was obvious but it's apparently not
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Madison and Milwaukee are finally unpacked!!!
Our maps answer meet the court’s criteria and fulfill our promise to the people of Wisconsin that we will champion fair, competitive, and constitutional maps.
You can see the maps we submitted here ⬇️⬇️
Senate Map:
Assembly Map:
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There's Election Twitter and then there's Election Teens and there's a HUGE difference between the two
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Whitmer (blue) vs Prop 3 (red) is actually extremely interesting
It's basically a racial map of the state combined with education
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I'm not saying that Mississippi is pro-trans at all, I'm saying that spewing transphobia isn't salient at all and it also just comes off as... weird
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The GA GOP doesn't want you to know this but this is a legal district
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SC-2 only being Trump-12 is a pretty big red flag for the GOP
Had to go back and update my results for the counties kept whole and assign new precincts to the correct CD so here is what I've got for tonight. Nikki Haley has solidly carried SC-1 and lost everything else.
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Something interesting is that the south is perceived as this ruby red region but it was like R+5 in 2020
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