So here's my dream: I want to take a semester off from college to work on this full time and see where I can take it. This wasn't something I had considered until I saw how many people subbed to the beta in the past 2 days.
The DC and Boston metro systems are sometimes discussed like they're similar to NYC's metro but they're far less popular. Residents in DC/Boston mostly commute by car except for in a few neighborhoods in the city core.
Forsyth County, Georgia in 1990 was 99% white and known as a Sundown County.
Today Forsyth County is 1/3 non-white and home to several majority asian neighborhoods.
In 2000 UT Austin narrowly voted for Bush, but in 2022 Abbott only won 7.6% of the vote. Why did Republicans completely fall out of favor with students in the past 22 years?
In 2020 Illinois Democrats passed a brutal 14D-3R gerrymander but it's possible they could've gone further. A map like this would have likely resulted in only 2 GOP seats in 2022.
If a Texas independence referendum were held and public opinion lined up with this poll the results would've looked something like this
(green for independence and blue against)
Texan democrats could break the gerrymander while still losing Texas if trends accelerated in their favor. In this scenario Democrats win 21/38 seats with <50% of the vote.
The Canarsie and Prospect Heights neighborhoods in Brooklyn, which were almost all-white and all-black respectively in 1990, have completely reversed their racial makeup in the past 30 years.
Recently, NY Democrats drew new house seats but opted to not gerrymander the maps. Had they gone down the route of maximizing democratic seats they could have easily drawn a 23D-3R map like this one (2022 gov data).
The most "resistlib" precinct in Illinois
(largest delta between Trump 2020 vote % and White voting-age population %)
Evanston, Cook County
91.9% White VAP
6.2% Trump
+85.7% delta
I’ve added 57 new elections to California from 2002-2022. This includes every presidential, gubernatorial, house, and senate race from 2002 onwards and 19 ballot referendums.
East Austin neighborhoods completely flipped their racial demographics between 1990 and 2020.
White neighborhoods became latino and latino/black neighborhoods became white.
Here's a perfect illustration on why media markets matter:
- Missouri media markets
- 2018 auditor election in SW Missouri
- 2018 auditor-2020 president trend-adjusted shift