John Couvillon
@WinWithJMC
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Founder, JMC Analytics & Polling Award winning pollster/4x runner-up (Innovation in Survey Research) Political strategist/Numbers guy
Louisiana
Joined October 2012
ONE. HUNDRED. MILLION. HAVE. VOTED. The California update was sent an hour ago, bringing the nationwide total to 100,573,905.
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CALLING IT: MIlwaukee 95% in. It gave Dems a 31K margin in 2016. Tonight, it's 63K. And Im not seeing offsetting GOP margins in other counties other than Dane or Milwaukee. Karofsky by 20-30K.
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MAHALO, HAWAII!.You're the first state to exceed 2016 turnout. just got confirmation from a Honolulu reporter.
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2018 PRIMARY TURNOUT (EXCLUDING CALIFORNIA): Democratic turnout up 69% from 2014, Republican turnout up 4%.
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NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE:. Biden 57.3M (50%).Trump 55.6M (48,5%). As those mail ins from the Wet Coast come in, that lead will likely expand to 4-5M.
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MARICOPA COUNTY ARIZONA UPDATE II.Since I'm an "apples to apples" kind of guy :). Baseline: 930K, 37.5-37.4% R/D.EDAY: 103K, 57-14% R/D.NOW: 1033K, 39.5-35.1% R/D.
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This was the Maricopa number. According to @SteveKornacki , Trump got 59% of the 74K new votes.
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WISCONSIN PARTISAN TURNOUT: Trump carried Kenosha County 47-47% in 2016. Tonight, 56-44% preference for Democrats in primary.
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CALLING IT A DAY. 95.5M votes (+1.35M) (44-34% Dem/Rep). There will obviously be a volume of last minute mail (and some in person) tomorrow. Rest assured I'll grab what I can, in the hopes of tweeting at the point we reach 100 million votes.
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YOU DID IT, MONTANA!. 504,402 early votes, or 101.5% of the 2016 vote. Montana is now the 3rd state to "crack 100%".
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67.25 MILLION. TX update made - they're up to 7.8M, or 87% of the 2016 vote.
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UNCALLED HOUSE RACES. California CD 21 D (Rep up 2356 votes).California CD 25 R (Rep up 159 votes).Iowa CD 2 D (Rep up 47 votes).New York CD 22 D (Rep up 54.3-43.4%).Utah CD 4 D (Rep up 1616 votes).
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82.MILLION.VOTES. Thanks to the MA and GA updates. Left to come in for today: CA CO DT FL NV SC TX WA.
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62.MILLION.EARLY.VOTES. And the fun starts today, with many updates coming along.
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99.MILLION.VOTES. Thanks to a 4PM update (per an CO SOS email). Waiting on WA (in an hour), any CA updates, and FL (working on).
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70.MILLION.EARLY.VOTES. NY, NV, and a few other updates.
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More Virginia. 227K Dem with 29% in.364K Dem with 38% in.380K Dem with 40% in .617K Dem with 58% in. That means a projected turnout between 957-1063K. In 2008, Dem turnout was 986K.In 2016, Dem turnout was 785K.
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PENNSYLVANIA 7/27/2020 VOTER REGISTRATION. 8643K registered voters.47% Dem,38% Rep,14% Ind. 30400 new voters since last month. 5400 Dem. 18500 Rep. 6500 Ind.(1/2).
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TEXAS CROSSES THE 100% MARK. Montana likely to be next.
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CALLING IT A DAY. 95.6M requests (+584K) (44-26% Dem/Rep).83.3M votes (+5.2M) (45-33% Dem/Rep). Before tomorrow morning's "Olympic tweetstorm", I'll be getting updates from LA, MT, NC, TX, and VA. and incorporating them in.
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FLORIDA HAS BEEN UPDATED (10/30). 8.23M TOTAL (+406K) (39.5-38% Dem/Rep).4.45M Mail (46-31% Dem/Rep).3.77M In Person (46-32% Rep/Dem).
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95.MILLION.VOTES. Even though (with all the AM updates available) we're up to 94,995,317, Florida has EASILY voted 4,683 people this morning - probably even in one county.
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EARLY VOTING HISTORY (10/9 VERSION):. Just so Election Twitter can realize how much has changed in the last 7/14 days. Still waiting on any kind of data from Arizona and Nebraska.
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GETTING CLOSE TO 100M. 8 states left, and we're up to 98.74M. CA CT HI KY MA NH NY WA are left in terms of updates. Plus any additional updates from FL and CO that'll come in later.
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FLORIDA HAS BEEN UPDATED (10/31). 8.66M TOTAL (+430K) (39.2-38.2% Dem/Rep).4.57M Mail (45.5-31% Dem/Rep).4.08M In Person (46-32% Rep/Dem).
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CALLING IT A DAY. 95M requests (+514K) (44-26% Dem/Rep).77.1M votes (+3.9M) (46-33% Dem/Rep). Before tomorrow morning's "Olympic tweetstorm", I'll be getting updates from CA, GA, LA, MT, NC, TX, and VA.
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FLORIDA HAS BEEN UPDATED (11/2). 9.07M TOTAL (39.1-37.9% Dem/Rep).4.73M Mail (45-31% Dem/Rep).4.33M In Person (45-32% Rep/Dem). This means 96.9% of the 2016 vote is in for FL.
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RIP. Congressman Elect Luke Letlow (besides being someone I've worked with/for since 2014, when he was Ralph Abraham's campaign manager) was truly a good man. This is terrible.
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GETTING CLOSE TO 100M. 20 states left, and we're up to 98.46M. AL AK CA CO CT DE FL GA HI ID KS KY ME MA NH.NJ NY OH OK RI. All I need is 77K from each state. wasn't that the amount by which Trump was elected Pres from the "blue wall" states ? That number seems eerily familiar.
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EV SO FAR:. 94.2M mail requests (+1.2M).71.1M voted (+3.9M). That's before (1) the FL update which Im about to do, (2) updates tomorrow morning for GA/LA/NC/VA.
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ALMOST 67 MILLION. 164K short - when the TX update comes in in 2 hours, we'll cross that milestone.
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GEORGIA SEC OF ST - Said that 16105 votes left to be counted.
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PENNSYLVANIA VTR REG STATISTICS.9/9-9/16: D +9023, R +13741, Ind +6606.9/2-9/16: D +12213, R +19483, Ind +10362. 1. In two weeks, 42K voters were added, of whom 46% are Rep and 29% were Dem.2. In September 2020, 117K new voters were added. Just the facts, ma'am.
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FLORIDA OFFICIAL EV NUMBERS.In other words, what the FL SOS posts every AM :). 2,172,931.41.2% Rep, 39.8% Dem. In 2020, it was 4,173,923 and 45-34% Dem/Rep.
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KY 06: Democrat Amy McGrath wins absentees in Franklin by 29 points. Trump only carried this county by 5 points.
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THREE THOUGHTS ABOUT 2022. 1. Independents matter. A LOT. 2. Candidate quality also matters. A LOT. 3. This election is 1998, Part II.
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ARKANSAS PARTISAN TURNOUT: With 49% of precincts reporting, 68% are choosing a Republican ballot (54% did in 2014 primary).
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PENNSYLVANIA PARTY REGISTRATION CHANGES. For the first time since November 2021, Democrats actually GAINED voters. Also this past month, Independents out registered Republicans (who for the first time since last August lost voters).
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95-99.9% OF THE 2016 VOTE AS OF 11/1 PM. NC (97.9%).WA (97.8%).GA (95.4%).FL (95.3%).
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EARLY VOTING, THEN AND NOW (2020 v 2022). The TURNOUT is not really the relevant number. The Dem/Rep SPREAD is. I'll leave it at that, and post the comparison :)
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101.MILLION.VOTERS. Thanks to @horvick for the "heads up" about OR poasting its new vote totals. Those 200K new votes that put it over 100% and nationally to 101M.
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PRELIMINARY NATIONAL EV NUMBERS:. As I wait for AM updates from multiple states (GA, NC, LA, TX, VA and maybe NY come to mind), here's where we stand right now:. (1) 91.6M mail ballot requests (+952K) (45-26% Dem/Rep).(2) 59.3M votes (+2.1M) (48-31% Dem/Rep).
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The Biden margin in AZ fell from 90K to 80K overall, per Steve.
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CALLING IT A DAY. 96.96M requests (+296K) (44-26% Dem/Rep).93.35M votes (+2.9M) (44-34% Dem/Rep). Before tomorrow morning's "Olympic tweetstorm", I'll be getting updates from LA, MT, NC, and VA (if I'm lucky, CA and NV). and incorporating them in.
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CALLING IT A NIGHT. Because the CA update won't happen while I'm keeping an eye out for it (watched pot laws in effect here). 99,719,397 is where we stand.
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PENNSYLVANIA CALL. McCormick's lead steadily evaporating from 7 to 2K. And I in several counties saw a 9 point spread for Oz with EDay votes. OZ WINS PRIMARY.
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NORTH CAROLINA. 1st day of early voting: 135,391 EVs. 39-33% D/R. Not very strong for the Democrats compared to the past.
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FIRST DECLARED RACE: Republican Hal Rogers of Kentucky. His district, however, went 80% for Trump, so no suspense here.
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NEWEST MEMBER OF THE 100% CLUB. Nevada - they just posted everything up to this morning. 1126K, or 100.017% of the 2016 vote.
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KAMALA-MANIA UPDATE (PA). Voter registration updated today (PA updates once a week), 13K more voters since last week, with Reps out registering Dems 5700-3800 statewide. Complete stats below since 6/29:
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ALASKA UPDATE:. Some absentee votes reported today:. ELEC DAY: 172K (Trump 63-33%).TODAY: 19K (Trump 57-39%).CURRENT: 191K (Trump 62-34%).
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Meanwhile, in Gwinnett County (another Atlanta suburb).
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BIDEN/HARRIS v TRUMP. Polling showed the ballot test numbers weren't that different, regardless of who Trump faced.
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SECOND STATE CERTIFIED RESULTS (CONNECTICUT). (The credit for this is 100% @Redistrict). Biden 59%, Trump 39% out of 1.82M cast.
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PENNSYLVANIA VOTER REGISTRATION 9/28/2020. 8,842,893 Total Reg.4,150,678 Dem (47%).3,426,563 Rep (39%).1,265,652 Ind (14%). In September, Dems +29325, Reps +64064, Inds +23938.Since Jan, Dems +89825, Reps +177644, Inds +39056.
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TO PUT LOUISIANA IN PERSPECTIVE (AS OF THIS AM). 2020: 258K TOTAL EV, 34% black.2024: 260K TOTAL EV, 26% black. No, Louisiana isn't remotely competitive, but I've learned that black enthusiasm/lack thereof tends to be identical for GA/LA/NC.
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ALMOST AT 86 MILLION. KY update. Just one more state puts me over the top.
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OKLAHOMA (59% IN): 51% are voting in Republican primary (62% did in 2014). Current estimate is Democratic turnout up 109%, Republican turnout up 32% over 2014 primary.
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THANKS, FLORIDA !. 98.MILLION.VOTERS. And that's without updates from. AL AK CA CO CT DE GA HI ID IL KS KY ME MA MN MO NH .NJ NY OK OR RI.
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STEVE KORNACKI SAYS. From Philadelphia: +27K Biden, +4 Trump. BIDEN NOW LEADS 5587.
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NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE, 11/25 PM EDITION. Biden 80.2M (+11.4M since 11/3) (51.1%).Trump 73.93M (+7.77M since 11/3 (47.1%).TOTAL 157.02M (+19.68M since 11/3).
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ABOUT THOSE BAD BALLOTS IN NORTH CAROLINA:.(As of 9/12/2020 AM). Whites: 98% accepted, 2% rejected.Asians: 97-3%.Two/More Races: 96%-4%.Other: 93-7%.Blacks: 92-8%.American Indian: 87-13%. Most common reason for rejection: "witness information incomplete".
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LITTLE GEORGIA TIDBIT. While Georgia has 159 counties, 68% of the state's voters reside in 24 of those counties.
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GEORGIA EARLY VOTING. 181,643 total EV.46-38% black/white (NOT a typo). This lawsuit over weekend early voting was a MAJOR strategic error by Republicans, but let's see to what extent they can catch up, now that ALL counties can vote starting today.
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Accepted ballots (cumulative):.(1) White 73%, black 18%, 9% other.(2) Dem 58%, Rep 13%, Other 29%. Rejected ballots (cumulative):.(1) White 44%, black 45%, 11% other.(2) Dem 66%, Rep 12%, Other 22%.(2/2).
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BECAUSE OF MONROE COUNTY NY AND PHILADELPHIA. Biden is now at 51% (Trump at 47.2%).
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STEVE KORNACKI SAYS (8:58AM CT). From Bucks (Biden +2K, Trump +1K). BIDEN NOW LEADS 6737.
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ELECTION TWITTER ANGELS. Are pointing me to updated data. Just found a NJ update. We're now at 99,569,398.
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MORE PA MAIL INS: Came from Lehigh County (Allentown). Which again were 3:1 for Biden.
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WISCONSIN ELECTION CERTIFICATION. The Wisconsin Elections Commission has posted official results. (1) Overall 2 party turnout up 20% relative to 2018. Dem turnout -7%, Rep turnout +52%.(2) In 2018, the primary electorate was 56-44% Dem/Rep. This year, it's 58-42% Rep/Dem.
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64.MILLION.VOTES. Now Im up to Pennsylvania. Here are my missing updates (thanks to @AdamBassWCCS for the MA update !). Illinois - no updates since Friday.Kentucky - no updates for several days.
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ADVICE FOR THOSE REPS UPSET ABOUT ALASKA. Here in the Gret Stet of Looziana, we have the "jungle primary", which is a more indirect version of RCV. It requires candidates (successful ones, anyway) to think in terms of how to get to 51% of the vote. And voters love it.
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POST ROE TURNOUT ANALYSIS .Corrected. Has the Supreme Court ruling caused Democratic turnout to spike ? Let's see what the data says:. (1) 12 states (including Hawaii) have held primaries since late June.(2) In 2018 in those states, 11.35M voted (54-46% D/R).(1/2).
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WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED TO TUESDAY NIGHT TURNOUT. Just to give a different perspective from what's being reported ;). 5 STATES: Turnout +4% (Dem -7%, GOP +17%).KANSAS: Turnout +56% (Dem +81%, GOP +44%).OTHER 4 STATES: Turnout +1% (Dem -11%, GOP +14%).
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CREEPING CLOSER TO 100%. Oregon just updated. 1.97M votes, or 98.4% of the 2016 vote.
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RECENT GEORGIA POLLING. (1) Trafalgar: Warnock +1, Ossoff +3.(2) JMC Analytics and Polling: Warnock +9, Ossoff +8.(3) Mellman: Warnock +3, Ossoff +3.(4) Atlas Intel I, Warn +4, Oss +4.(5) Gravis: Warn +2, Oss +3.(6) Atlas Intel II, Warn +4, Oss +4.5. 6 polls, 6 "blue times twos".
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ARIZONA GETTING CLOSER. Theyre up to 96% of the 2016 vote.
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TEASER FOR TOMORROW: Two states are getting fairly close to the 100% mark: Georgia (95.4%) and Washington (97.8%).
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