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@DjsokeSpeaking
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glutton for uncertainty | Cocontext truther
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Democratic donors with Harris as the nominee
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Mostly meaningless stuff that will poll at like 80%?
Oh she's so locked in right now
News: Harris to propose “federal ban on corporate price-gouging” on groceries and “impose stiff penalties in the food industry,” campaign announces.
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Crosstabs
✅ not normal
#New
General Election Poll
🔵 Harris 48% (+2)
🔴 Trump 46%
Last poll - 🔴 Trump +5
Mainstreet B+ - 936 LV - 7/28
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Seems like Beshear is in fact on the shortlist
These were the only realistic final four honestly
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this motherforker is now higher than it was before yesterday
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Made this around the 2022 midterms but it’s always relevant
The Wisconsin GOP has an absolutely massive Dane County problem. This county continues to grow AND get bluer.
You’re not winning anything when Dane is voting 82-18 in an off cycle ballot question
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Every time someone says something as insane as this, Biden becomes a bit less likely to step aside
If Biden drops out, Lofgren says "I don't think we can do a coronation" and says she supports "a mini-primary" including possibly "a vetting hosted by former presidents, including Obama and Clinton."
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Is it good policy? No
But she’s clearly in her “trying to win the election” era, so we will accept it 🙂↕️
VP: It is my promise to everyone here when I am president we will continue our fight for working families of America. Including to raise the minimum wage. And eliminate taxes on tips for service and hospitality workers.
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Pretty clear Harris campaign’s done testing showing the “border czar” attack to one of the biggest, if not *the* biggest weakness she has
The border bill is the cleanest cudgel she has on that (pretty grim considering how conservative the bill is)
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Kamala too extreme? No+8
Trump too extreme? Yes+9
oh yeah, yktr 😌
We polled Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin twice with
@DataProgress
.
The first was when Biden dropped out, and Trump led Harris by 7 (and Biden by 6).
The second was last week. Harris now leads Trump by 1.
Read our
@SplitTicket_
piece:
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They’re popaganda accounts for Ds rn and it’s the most beautiful thing I’ve ever seen 🥹
Pop Crave is at the Democratic National Convention.
Stay tuned for coverage!
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Biggest ActBlue fundraising hours since the Walz announcement day
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Also I think yall are being too harsh on Peltola/R-district Ds
Peltola’s a pro-choice, pro-union vote in a Trump+10 seat. She can vote for a “Kamala Harris is a sea witch” resolution if it helps her win
Insane Rep messaging votes are the most harmless points they can score imo
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Bruh this guy is just evil
The mildest difference in tone, from the *nominee who may or may not win and wouldn't take power for 6 months* and he's trying to blame her for
He very clearly doesn't want a ceasefire and wants Trump to win, it's super grim that he's in power!
Netanyahu concerned Harris' comments may harm hostage and ceasefire deal, Israeli officials say
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okay, slightly premature mini WA post-mortem w/ 150k+ votes left out lol
1) House vote is D+16.7
That’s a good D result! Don’t obsess too much trying to unskew voting habits or pinpoint an exact national environment.
It’s a positive indicator, think about it directionally!
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Biggest ActBlue fundraising hours since Biden announced his withdrawal
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Oh we love this one
BREAKING:
KAMALA HARRIS WILL CALL FOR THE CONSTRUCTION OF 3 MLN HOUSING UNITS AS PART OF HER ECONOMIC POLICY SPEECH ON FRIDAY - SOURCE
HARRIS WILL OFFER TAX INCENTIVES FOR BUILDERS THAT CONTRUCT PROPERTIES FOR FIRST-TIME HOME BUYERS-SOURCE
(confirming WSJ)
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Burned too often to believe it until it happens, but pleeeeeeease let this happen
GAZA NEGOTIATORS BELIEVE THEY HAVE A CEASEFIRE-FOR-HOSTAGES DEAL READY TO GO; TALKS IN CAIRO NEXT WEEK ARE AIMED AT CONCLUDING A DEAL - SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL
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We did it Joeconut
Yesterday: ActBlue fundraising sets a new single-day record
Today: That record was broken. Now we've had the two biggest fundraising days recorded for ActBlue back to back
Pretty incredible lol
Seems like there's good chance today is a new calendar-day record for ActBlue fundraising lol
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“Our administration supported bipartisan legislation that would have done xyz, and Trump killed it”
It acts as a more solid piece of evidence to push back on attacks over her 2019 comments + border czar stuff, while also avoiding being defensive
Sad place to be in though
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Every “New Trump” news cycle in a nutshell
Timestamps are accurate to how long the new Trump lasts each time too!
It’s honestly a bit funny that the “changed” Trump, who is supposed to be all about unity, can’t help but adlib inflammatory and conspiratorial tangents
Can give him a new speech and insist to reporters that he’s “spiritual” now, but you can’t change who he is
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We have near-final results from Alaska with tonight’s update. Today was the final day for absentees to arrive, and certification is up next!
@MaryPeltola
is at 50.9%
Combined D: 51.30%
Combined R: 47.46%
Nothing’s guaranteed, but Peltola is well-positioned heading into November
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JD Vance has a -17 favorability rating in the August Gallup poll
Harris is -2
Trump is -14
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@CryptoGeorgist
She’s probably doing unusually well with white voters and older voters, in the same vein as Biden was polling
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This is how I benchmarked Peltola's number for tonight's result btw
So yeah, I think it's great!
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I physically cannot understand this poll
1) How do you poll *Georgia* with a Black sample size of 17(!!!!!!)?
2) why do Hispanics split exactly into thirds? (n is 49!)
3) Party xtabs are senseless
12% worse w/ Ds for Harris = huge drop
15% worse w/ Is for Trump = no change
Insider Advantage polls Georgia, this Monday/Tuesday so after the assassination attempt. One of the bigger gaps we've seen between Biden & Harris in Biden's favor. Trump 47/44 on Biden, 47/37 on Harris.
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It’s literally right there in the graphic, but we had this exact same conversation in 2022, with declarations about “lost Dem votes” vs 2020
But Fetterman won easily, bc pandemic voting habits are a useless baseline
This may be the most important post on PA elections you'll see this week 🗳️
Expanding on
@Athan_K
's earlier post re Democrat mail ballot requests, a visual seemed necessary to show just how significant the Dem losses in PA are to date.
As of yesterday, Democrats are seeing a
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Banning price gouging on food and gas polls ridiculously well
It polls like "stop inflation" "prevent crime" "fix roads"
it's super nebulous but everyone hates price gouging, so you're not gonna be able to make the idea itself unpopular
Mostly meaningless stuff that will poll at like 80%?
Oh she's so locked in right now
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To me, this is easily the most encouraging result from the WA Primary. Update tonight brought it back to almost D+10 (from +9 on Friday)
2022's primary was just D+0.3
CD8 is Seattle suburbs - definitely feels like a good sign for the suburban blueshift to continue in November
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The nearly 10-pt drop in “neither” is like the story of post-Biden polling in general
NEW
In a new Financial Times poll, Vice-President Kamala Harris is now leading former President Trump by one point on who voters trust more with the economy.
This same poll, conducted last month when President Biden was still in the race, showed Biden trailing Trump.
Since
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So, with a nearly complete return count in WA, we can finally look under the hood a bit! Here's a look into returns by age, for statewide and in King County
Compared with 2022:
turnout among the youngest voters is up
turnout among the oldest voters is down
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Not Wisconsin suddenly becoming the reddest rust belt state again 💀
NEW FOX NEWS POLLS
Michigan 🟦 Harris 49% 🟥 Trump 49%
Minnesota 🟦 Harris 52% 🟥 Trump 46%
Pennsylvania 🟦 Harris 49% 🟥 Trump 49%
Wisconsin 🟥 Trump 50% 🟦 Harris 49%
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On the one hand, this is super embarrassing
On the other hand, it’s an immense gift to Kamala Harris’ campaign and for that reason I’m glad it’s happening lol
I am so angry right now. N.A.B.J., this was a colossal mistake.
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This post randomly went off so I wanna elaborate a bit
- To be ahead, Harris must do unusually well with older/white voters in this poll
- I don’t think we should take that at face value
- Many pollsters don’t treat their xtabs with care, but write about them plainly anyway
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oh all those polls that can't handle nonresponse are getting exposed af right now
New Leger poll (C-), July 28
🟦 Kamala Harris 49%
🟥 Donald Trump 46%
Last Trump vs Biden poll: TRUMP +7 (June 27-28)
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This is pretty much exactly where I fall on the senate right now
- Can’t think Brown is favored in OH unless he’s still polling clearly ahead in October
- Allred odds > DMP odds
- Tester a clear underdog but still has a shot to pull off what Collins did in Maine
Our new
@SplitTicket_
Senate model is out.
The most Republican senate map in years has made retaining the chamber incredibly tough for Democrats, despite a series of huge candidate quality gaps. Republicans still have an 84% chance of winning the Senate.
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Hardly dropped with the rest of eday 🥹
Peltola’s gotten around 2/3 of the VBM vote so far
If the NYT estimate is correct, she should finish around 52-53%
Would be an insane performance from her
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ActBlue fundraising since Sunday now ahead of the *full weeks* of both the first debate and RGB’s death in 2020
Def should make it past a quarter billion with two more days to go
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So true Donald
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@Idejder
it's a super nebulous policy statement that would, for any real implementation, not be super practical
but "stop price gouging" is one of those things that tests universally well, even without much literal meaning
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The switch to Ipsos made the ABC/WaPo poll so much better 🥰 (aka it gives much better results for Ds now 😌)
NEW ABC/Washington Post national poll (B)
🟦 Kamala Harris 49% (+4)
🟥 Donald Trump 45%
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We’re so back already
U.S ISM NON-MANUFACTURING PMI (JUL) ACTUAL: 51.4 VS 48.8 PREVIOUS; EST 51.4
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Here’s a fun anecdote from yesterday:
Apolitical friend messages me
- “Wait is Biden really done”
> Yeah
- “So who’s gonna run instead?”
> almost certainly Kamala Harris
- “Who is that”
😐
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ActBlue is gonna raise more money today than the Dobbs decision week lol
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🫡
OPEC+ IS LIKELY TO PROCEED WITH A PLANNED GRADUAL OIL PRODUCTION INCREASE FROM OCTOBER - SIX OPEC+ SOURCES SAY
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This article is incredible
So much good information and amazing interactive data viz
Harris’ new donor base over Biden:
Black, Latino, and Mormon (🤪)
Highly recommend
Wrangled FEC data and made some cute maps to see where Harris has attracted new donors w/
@sandhya__k
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There will be discourse over this so I’m just gonna put my partisan pants on for a sec & add this
Domestically in particular, I think Biden has been an excellent president. He’s gotten the short end of the stick in a lot of ways, but I appreciate all he’s done, including here
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Keep in mind the of all in which we live and what came before us (and what will come after)
Likeliest path from here is that she drops some with the rest of eday and then rises some with the rest of the VBM after!
Okay, so for some additional context, there is still a lot of election day vote out. Peltola's share might (perhaps even likely) decrease as the rest of it comes in
*But* after that, it'll be lots of VBM over the next 10 days which will increase her share again
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The speech apparently tested well with swing voter dial groups, and her delivery was the best I've seen out of a speech from her
I've joked about this before, but ultimately I support her doing whatever will help her win! To that extent, I think the speech did the job
i guess my feeling is that if you are up by 2.8% and you need to be up by 5% in order to win and it's unclear whether there will be another election, that speech is the one you need to give, but god help us all i hope some of it was just lying
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I do really wonder why Cooper withdrew himself from considerations
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Bruh I'm an econ anxiety-poster but idk how you expect anyone to be this dense 😭
The Dow would need to fall another 9000 (~22%) pts to be below where it was when Biden took office. More than 1500 (~29%) for the S&P
Why would you say this now, when the "crash" looks like this😵💫
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This is why it’s important that Harris is the nominee
- He can’t help but be racist towards her, it’s who he is
- and now Biden’s age won’t take oxygen and prevent from Trump’s vileness from trickling down
- Trump gets more unhinged when he thinks he might lose!
Donald Trump has got to be really, really grateful that this was not televised on prime time and hope this will not get much cable news coverage, because that was easily among the three worst on-stage performances I have ever seen a candidate put up anywhere.
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@lxeagle17
I feel like some of these comments have to break through to get covered
Saying Harris “turned Black” is so racist it’s unbelievable
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Sentiment is 100% correct. Regardless of what polls say now, or October, we should default to assuming it’ll be very close
We’ve had two consecutive super tight elections with Trump (bc of big EC biases)
Won’t rule out anything ofc, but gotta operate as if it’s a tossup
Kamala Harris at SF fundraiser: "Let's not take anything for granted. I know there's a lot of enthusiasm out there... I've never been one to really believe in the polls... What we know is the stakes are so high and we can take nothing for granted in this critical moment."
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The outright YIMBYism from Harris is the most exciting part of her candidacy so far imo
Housing could already be called a crisis, but the end of ZIRP investments has us hurtling towards a cliff now lol
Need a massive change in attitude asap, and this is encouraging
This is like my wildest fever dream what is happening
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I did not think Kelly wanted the VP slot as much as he seems to!
🚨 Mark Kelly, a possible Dem VP pick, tells HuffPost he'd vote for the PRO Act today if it hit the Senate floor.
Kelly has been a holdout on the pro-union bill.
"Unions loom large in our life and I’m supportive of the PRO Act," he told
@igorbobic
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This was from Gallup’s July poll
It ended a few hours before Biden’s letter of withdrawal, covering the entire post-debate period right up to that point
Nonresponse believers we are so winning right now 😌
#New
Gallup Party identification poll
🔴 Republican (Leaners) - 47% (+6)
🔵 Democrats (Learners) - 41%
Gallup
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The donations on ActBlue for *today* seem like they will outpace every *week* since the midterms except for one
This week will easily be the biggest week since the 2020 election
They're calling it the unburdening
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ActBlue has now had three consecutive weeks of fundraising larger than any week in the 2022 cycle
iow, the three largest weeks since 2020 all back-to-back
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Over $200m raised on ActBlue through today for this week so far
Three days left, and we should pass the 2020 weeks of the first debate and RGB's death tomorrow
Insane boon to Harris and probably a lot of downballot dems as well
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One part partisan hackery
One part engagement bait
Sprinkle in some data illiteracy
Oh look! It’s the recipe for the worst early voting takes you’ve ever seen
BREAKING: Democrat mail-in ballot requests in Pennsylvania have dropped by 132,000 since the same time in 2020.
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Retail sales and jobless claims both huge beats
Recession postponed until further notice 😇
U.S RETAIL SALES (MOM) (JUL) ACTUAL: 1.0% VS 0.0% PREVIOUS; EST 0.4%
U.S CORE RETAIL SALES (MOM) (JUL) ACTUAL: 0.4% VS 0.4% PREVIOUS; EST 0.1%
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Latest update on the turnout x age stats from WA
Statewide turnout passed 2022, making it
#2
in the state's history behind 2020
Youth turnout ⬆️(Especially in King County)
55+ turnout ⬇️
Gives us somewhat bluer results than 2022 (and a bit bluer than 2020, too)
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Kari Lake is doing the lord’s work right now, my word
NEW Arizona likely voter poll has Harris with a slight edge over Trump
POTUS
Harris 44.4
Trump 41.6
Other candidate 5.2
Undecided 8.8
Senate
Gallego 49.6
Lake 38.6
Other 2.6
Undecided 9.2
@azhighground
538 rank
#129
, 7/31-8/5, n=500 likely voters, margin +/- 4.38
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I genuinely think Florida is completely out of reach for Dems this year (particularly Harris)
We’ve done this song and dance before
But I wonder if a couple million and a couple rallies would help the amendments?
If so I think it might be worth it, esp for abortion access
Senate race
🟥 Rick Scott 47%
🟦 Debbie Mucarsel Powell 43%
Legalize Marijuana Amendment
🟩 Yes 56%
🟥 No 29%
Prohibit Government restrictions on Abortion Amendment
🟩 Yes 56%
🟥 No 21%
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Harris leads on all the personal attributes in this poll, and the fav/unfavs are:
Harris: 45-44 (+1)
Trump: 35-57 (-22)
Walz: 39-30 (+9)
Vance: 32-42 (-10)
At least in this poll, Harris/Walz are winning the likeability contest by clear margins, and that makes a big difference
NEW ABC/Washington Post national poll (B)
🟦 Kamala Harris 49% (+4)
🟥 Donald Trump 45%
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The Washington primary is four weeks from today!
Ballots get mailed 10 days from now. It’ll probably be our most tangible indicator on the state of play (congressionally, at least) until we vote in the fall
Now we get to wait and see 😇
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I think as Harris rolls out a platform relatively soon, she’ll have progressive policies to announce that’ll be more motivating to the base
But out of the gate, the race to define her is gonna revolve around issues like this, where she’ll need to lean into the cop persona
Pretty clear Harris campaign’s done testing showing the “border czar” attack to one of the biggest, if not *the* biggest weakness she has
The border bill is the cleanest cudgel she has on that (pretty grim considering how conservative the bill is)
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Unfortunately not a very good pollster but I love good news even when it’s fake 😇
#NEW
@BullfinchGroup
/
@Independent_Cen
Swing States Poll:
WISCONSIN
Harris 51% (+9)
Trump 42%
.
MICHIGAN
Harris 48% (+5)
Trump 43%
.
PENNSYLVANIA
Harris 49% (+4)
Trump 45%
1,500 RV, 8/8-11
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Wait, the NYT actually found that the conviction created a differential response bias *in favor* of Rs
All the nonresponse takes 😭😭
In 2020, Cohn/NYT observed that Covid created a major Dem response bias and wondered if that contributed to the miss, so this is def new lol
Not possible. I was told pollsters had fixed every single issue in polling and that (non)response bias was a thing of the past
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Same day gas prices in
2022: $3.96
2023: $3.82
2024: $3.42
2022/2023 saw major summer spikes bc of refinery issues. But this year, it’s been smoother (🤞)
If we make it to the winter blend switch (Sept 15) without major issues, Fall prices will be the lowest since 2020 🙏
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BREAKING
CLAIMS BEAT
*US JOBLESS CLAIMS 233,000 IN AUG. 3 WEEK; EST. 240K
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Harris' favorability trend in this poll is the funniest thing ever
(And the LV screen has her net fav as +4!)
New Marquette National poll (A+), July 24-Aug 1
🟦 Kamala Harris 53%
🟥 Donald Trump 47%
🟦 Kamala Harris 50%
🟥 Donald Trump 42%
🟨 Kennedy Jr. 6%
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3) WA takeaways
a) WA-08 is not competitive right now. Schrier + Ds are gonna finish >+10 lol
b) MGP will obviously have a close race, but I’d tilt it towards her
c) WA’s trends aren’t universal, if 2022 showed us anything, it’s that NYDems can still fuck this up 🥲
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Banning price gouging on food and gas polls ridiculously well
It polls like "stop inflation" "prevent crime" "fix roads"
it's super nebulous but everyone hates price gouging, so you're not gonna be able to make the idea itself unpopular
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In my WA post-mortem, I said WA03 was a tossup, but I’d tilt it towards MGP
So here’s a mini 🧵on why!
MGP received 46% in the primary this month, Rs got 51.5% combined
Here’s the breakdown by county, and how MGP performed relative to her result in the 2022 general
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