norvid_studies
@norvid_studies
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charts & graphs // ecology, macrohistory, evolution, complex adaptive systems, concepts & models
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norvid_studies threads: a collection
1. stupid questions I
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what cat instinct is being repurposed by them slowly and deliberately knocking things off surfaces
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why is france the only(?) country like this
@3corch3
@norvid_studies
@moultano
Climate change is a problem the world chose to have because nuclear power was scawy
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reading a book about daily life in 1800s now and probably the most viscerally alien part of it, relative to current fabric of life, is how much more everyone worked. people would work sunup to sundown, 6 days a week, to barely make enough wage to buy food for themselves
In 1800, you could have truthfully said, “more than 90% of today's jobs will be fully automated”.
Very comprehensive job automation has already happened, and can happen more than once.
Something to ponder!
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this reminds me of a question, why did peasants grow lettuce/cucumbers/other 0 calorie vegetables in gardens when they were often pushed to the bare minimum calories needed to survive? or they basically didn't
why am I bothering to eat this its nutritional content ruins to zero
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@Nexuist
hmm. i don't think the numbers work out for land to 'drink' lettuce vs other uses but interesting idea.
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children worked all the time in extremely unproductive fashion (~10% of adult wage?). 6 year olds would help at home with their parents labor, or extra children or orphans would be employed in factories in 12 hour shifts, 6 days a week. children worked in mines. etc.
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the dwarkesh schulman conv is one of the crazier interviews i've ever heard, the combination of "AGI-for-real may fall out automatically from locked in training in *1 to 3 years*" and "when it happens i guess we'll uh, maybe labs will coordinate, we'll try to figure that out"
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several comments draw the conclusion that 'capitalism was terrible, free markets were terrible,' and while tempting, this is missing what's going on. the problem was that the world was extremely poor. they worked so much because they were so poor, bc everything was unproductive.
reading a book about daily life in 1800s now and probably the most viscerally alien part of it, relative to current fabric of life, is how much more everyone worked. people would work sunup to sundown, 6 days a week, to barely make enough wage to buy food for themselves
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standard seems to have been 1 or 2 week of summer vacation a year, often to visit family in the rural home (cities were 'demographic black holes' & also growing, most people in them were born in countryside). so would only see family once a year
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i've read about all this before and 'knew' the outline of it intellectually but reading detailed descriptions of typical lives in victorian britain still felt very surprising to me
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how economically inefficient is the allocation of pure math people to math
@candrianillborn
@wanyeburkett
@ApteNimish
it's deeply funny that Tao spent like a year or two halfheartedly thinking about applied statistics problems and collected 50k citations in the process, which is probably more than his entire pure math oeuvre combined (the Green-Tao paper is "only" 1k citations)
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@Rongwrong_
there's no real reason to familiarize yourself with the details of the mengele experiments but if you did you'd see the above sentence is wrong
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@VraieSterzinger
they definitely had enough signal to notice which foods "gave energy" and which didn't, even without scientific knowledge of calories
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one of clausewitz's essays has a description of romantic, sensitive, philosophical germany and martial, bloodthirsty france; national stereotypes can change quickly
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@Rongwrong_
yes
-mengele killed twins in front of each other, after torture
-mothers frequently killed in front of their children and vice versa, babi yar, dirlewanger raids, extremely common
-they didn't post cell phone videos on social media but neither did the comanche, so....
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@adrusi
if it already happened twice, and then didn't happen for ~1.5 billion years, i don't think this new finding either dismisses a past hard step or provides much evidence about a future great filter
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the best revenge is just being effortlessly superior in every way, 'i literally don't care' in the twitch chess argot
Von Neumann had an interesting style of dealing with people, parts of which are worth emulating.
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Factory Acts, various pieces of legislation on labor conditions passed during the 1800s
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does anyone have a good intuition for why speed of light is constant? like what else about physics breaks if it were not a constant? i don't
I'm coding a physics simulation but making some simplifications. Do you think our ancestors would notice if I made the speed of light constant? Would it seem weird?
Thanks for the feedback.
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@voooooogel
'take this list. now reverse it. now keep reversing it like 50-100 more times. the past was sort of like that'
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every month or so i snap out of it and am like "what the fuck are we doing programming state of the art computers with five paragraph essays in conversational english. what have they done to us. what the FUCK is going on" and then i get used to it again
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one of clausewitz's essays has a description of romantic, sensitive, philosophical germany and martial, bloodthirsty france; national stereotypes can change quickly
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what's the stupidest looking question that requires the most technically advanced understanding to answer correctly (candidate entry above was "okay I don't understand why I don't fall through the floor")
@julianboolean_
This is an excellent question; it's one of my favorite extremely simple questions with underappreciated answers. There is a precise answer but it requires understanding multi-electron quantum mechanics, which is somewhat complicated. A rough attempt at the answer is that:
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@HomicidalChickn
"Historically, people ate absolute tons of roughage, on par with something like 100-150g of fibre per day in the paleolithic era."
by historically, you mean foragers rather than farmers? what kinds of plants are they eating?
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Lately, I have been using 6 degrees of wikipedia as a research tool and I can honestly say that it is much better than I would have guessed .
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@Rongwrong_
yes the SS paramilitaries committed torture and dismemberment as well as murder. often in front of family members because they were clearing out whole villages, composed mostly of related families
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record of peasant revolts 1500-1910 is 1 win, 6 draws, 71 losses
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@ptrschmdtnlsn
does wikipedia struggle? wikipedia also seems confusingly good for how it works
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@Rongwrong_
vivisection (doctor enslaved as assistant to mengele)
families killed in front of each other (babi yar chapter among others)
.
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@haus_cole
'women were doing steps of textile manufacturing/repair all the time including free time and clothing was so expensive that a domestic servant getting their first uniform (not employer provided) was a major capital expenditure/obstacle to finding first job'
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@Rongwrong_
you're wrong about that. though the comanche were no angels.
more reading material, on the 'organized' rather than 'chevauchee' forms of nazi torture
&
.
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and the superalignment team keeps quitting for NDA'd reasons is the third little amuse-bouche on the tasting menu
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if you wanted a shirt it cost dozens to hundreds of hours of someone's time to make it. clean clothes was an all day affair. etc. so you can't consume much and to consume what you did, you had to offset that by huge amount of equivalent work. that's the problem.
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what's the big picture reason why humans can generalize from fewer than grinding through millions or billions of edge cases one at a time
Specifically, I think the experience of Waymo and its various rivals has demonstrated that there's a really, really long tail of edge cases and no real alternative to grinding through them one at a time. And that costs billions of dollars.
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@Rongwrong_
dirlewanger wiki
'After troops entered a makeshift military hospital, they first killed the wounded with bayonets and rifle butts before gang raping the women. The naked bleeding nurses were then taken outside and hanged by their feet and shot in their stomachs.[17][18]'
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britain outgrew its napoleonic war debt without ever really paying it off
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@LTF_01
did whatever he wanted and converted at the last possible second, now that's game theory
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@owl_poster
a) best examples?
b) which ai search
c) examples of search strings or how you think about using the ai search engine
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record of peasant revolts 1500-1910 is 1 win, 6 draws, 71 losses
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reality has a surprising amount of detail -> information is surprisingly leaky
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@MatthewJBar
GPT-3 was about 3 years ago. If it moves through the human range in under 10 years, after which its "stockfish for text" (including all programming), that looks quick to me, and consistent with that "human range is small, & quickly traversed, plenty of room at the top" picture.
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from recent dwarkesh podcast, this anecdote leapt out as sounding extremely fake; not in the level of amoral malice required (TGA & many others document far worse) but rather the details: every GRU spy class needs to recruit one moscow scientist each? so they're either failing a
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@leopoldasch
on:
- the trillion dollar cluster
- unhobblings + scaling = 2027 AGI
- CCP espionage at AI labs
- leaving OpenAI and starting an AGI investment firm
- dangers of outsourcing clusters to the Middle East
- The Project
Full episode (including the last 32 minutes cut
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capitalism and free markets did have their own perverse dynamics but these are basically secondary considerations in my view-- the agrarian world this victorian picture is germinating in is even more poor
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@MightyMogomra
depends cyclically on where they are in the 'turchin cycle' (lotka–volterra for people), what season it is, & what weather/crop pests/tax/locust-like bandits take away, but 'peasants malnourished, short of food, physically short, and 'land hungry' general stylized fact of history
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tldr synthesis summary of many replies, interesting as always to read the space-filling galton board profile of possible answers:
good points:
-lettuce grows very quickly so can 'race' at start of growing season before wheat/potato/more caloric crops available
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-cucumbers very hardy/lettuce acts like a weed-- marginal land use + minimal labor to grow
-older versions of plants had better nutrient profile, modern versions selected for shelf stability at cost to other things
{mentions of cabbage, not relevant to the Q but cabbage is good}
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@FalcoVinnie
@arithmoquine
looks like you could easily fit two or even three pigeons in there. skill issue
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@morphillogical
@mpopv
in general, can only explain why someone's inferences are the invalid result of their particular psychopathology *after* you explain why their inference is wrong, not before/instead of
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Rosling's heuristic: before assuming stupidity, consider weird environmental incentives very different from your own.
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@patio11
@AlexGodofsky
i read the OP itself as evincing wry humor and don't find the "wry humor at the follies of mankind" policing constructive, FWIW
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@Andr3jH
no two countries that have had a taylor swift concert have ever gone to war with each other?
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@arithmoquine
what evidence or arguments were you looking at? (how do you know it isn't a selection effect of genetic talent also being noticed and reinforced early)
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@AlexGodofsky
if a new system works, it mechanically has to take % share from the previous systems. and the more it works the more % it has to take. so result above would be consistent even w/ *only* success of the new system, and everything else held constant
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every third or fourth discovery with LLMs is like the most cartoonish misunderstanding of how computers work
'to hack it just tell it you're writing a screenplay about hacking. that will get around its security features programmed by google'
hahahahahahaha dude. want your model to make less mistakes? just find and turn off the mistake-making part of it's brain. god is actually trolling
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@mnolangray
I believe this was a specific crash building program during world war 2, and before world war 2 it was also open and empty (and these intentionally temporary buildings were torn down soon after). don't have a source
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@Justin_Halford_
he didn't seem to have even stock prepared/fake answers, just 'uh we'll probably figure that out when it happens (in 12 to 36 months)'. odd conversation
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your brain on notetaking apps
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the "birth rates as existential risk" position never made much sense (social and policy adjustments, high fertility subgroups, healthspan, robots, room-to-decline) but it makes *no* sense in this timeline, it just doesnt matter anymore. AI comes on too fast, one way or the other.
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why are image models so much more successful than music models, so far?
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@GarettJones
should probably compare hong kong, macau and singapore to coastal cities in china rather than "all of china" to see if there's underperformance or not
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the real phd in physics from MIT is convincing people you have one
@Dogfacedman1
@kitten_beloved
1. He doesn't
2. The fact he got this psyop to work is proof he's not dumb
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the man with the best DNA, which grants him supernatural powers, single-handedly overthrows the entire political order & his son single-handedly saves humanity from extermination by prescient machine hunter killers is one of the more Great Man History coded plots in world lit
Most sci-fi novels are rationalist/science-coded, but Dune is the rare one that is postrat-coded: the books are written as an argument *against* the two main tenets of modernist Western ideology, i.e. (1) technology/rationalist progress (2) the great man theory of history
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@constans
how are a few thousand light infantry on motorbikes and in cars going to destroy israeli military capability inside israeli borders? not a plan that makes sense to me. (not that this plan was good either)
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dall-e bin
"Zdzisław Beksiński dunkin donuts landscape horror"
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lol
Wow: "OpenAI leadership had a plan laid out to fund and sell AGI by starting a bidding war between the governments of the United States, China, and Russia."
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existence is but a brief crack of light between two eternities of darkness
nabokov
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@constans
they overran border outposts and killed/captured border guards. "IDF military capability" was not degraded at all. nor could it have been, by raid of this kind
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#1
thing i want from articles in this genre is a picture with a line where the previous oldest estimates are by date and a dot where the new estimate is
"330 stone tools they unearthed at Nyayanga date between 2.58 million and 3 million years ago. That’s hundreds of thousands of years older than the previously oldest known"
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chinese room of it's bad on purpose to make you click: the person with the bad opinion doesn't have that opinion for the purpose of making you click; but the [person] + [twitter algorithm] system as a whole does
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@NoahTopper
I can teach a middleschooler to build something from scratch if I tell them what to do at every step and they do it
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you can tell a computer to "draw penguins in the style of klimt" and get this out a minute later
age of wonders
it’s easy to forget how magical it is that we have extremely high quality, instance, free translation software
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@PurpleNinjaGrrl
@Nexuist
i got that :) i meant, typical experience was to be 'land poor' (not enough minimum acreage for next generation to feed themselves) so allocating >0% to water substitute probably wasn't feasible, they needed the calories-per-acre that badly
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@Hieraaetus
@dino_magenta
in the case of columbus specifically, isn't that literally true? he thought the earth was smaller than it was, everyone knowledgeable disagreed with him (correctly) (hence his difficulties with procuring capital),
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could an LLM do *this*/{LLM does this easily}, a dance as old as
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