Matt Vinson
@mattmvinson
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traded @DeutscheBank \ founded&failed some shit \ family office
San Francisco, CA
Joined February 2021
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Pinned Tweet
Data: Consumer sentiment, spending, and wage growth strength continues to outpace expectations.
ConsDisc Equities Sentiment: Consumer is stretched and going to contract any second.
A dislocation inevitably reverts.
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@anothercohen
I assumed she at least bought the property with that funding. Nope, she’s renting it and subletting on airbnb.
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@Jason
You’re trading entirely tech stocks so that’s an inaccurate benchmark. An allocator would compare you to NDX performance.
YTD on NDX is 44.825%
You’re behind the market you’re trading in by 15%.
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@elonmusk
Ownership of a private jet comes with the obligation of making the aircraft’s location in American airspace public. It’s your choice to publicize its location by buying it.
Also a plane is not necessarily your location. It’s the plane’s location.
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@DavidSacks
“Prewar army”
C’mon man. Words matter.
Russian conscription has offset plenty of losses.
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@devahaz
At 5.5% o/n and 3 months to go, it looks like this just trading like a zero coupon treasury?
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@mattturck
There was $2.9 trillion in m&a volume last year alone with 28,000 controlling stake deals.
Nothing is broken except the VC mind that thinks consolidation or anticompetitive behavior doesn’t exist.
(Spirit/JetBlue is valid step away from normal enforcement, the others are not)
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@SahilBloom
This is peak “why don’t you just walk in with a resume in hand and ask to speak to Google’s management” energy.
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@m2jr
So if your dad never said he had PTSD from Vietnam that means it invalidated for all other soldiers as well? Or you’re implying they’re weaker or somehow less because it happened to them and not your dad?
Come on man. This is a garbage attempt to delegitimize other’s stress.
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@BichonRedux
$15k a year in savings 40 years ago would have been 75% of average household income.
This is like asking why isn’t each Gen Z individual saving $45k a year right now?
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@ChristianTams
@Geiger_Capital
They literally come from the southern border. That’s what is being referred to with “from the south”.
No one is disputing the background of migrants is varied, but the point of entry is a commonality.
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@DavidSacks
Intent is the first listed legal element to that statute and you’re flat out ignoring it.
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@mattturck
Nothing about VC’s being evil man. It’s about VC’s having bad takes on things not in their wheelhouse. It’s ok to admit you don’t really know much about m&a or antitrust law, those aren’t your job.
Each regulator cares about their own market. That’s it.
The CMA never issued an
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@Jason
This you champ?
Against bailouts when failure poses a systemic risk to the whole economy.
For bailouts when it’s a niche financial institution that personally affects your world.
Got it. Classic VC intellectual honesty on display.
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@RobertMSterling
Trump has never had to balance a budget between shopping for groceries and paying rent.
He’s never had to worry about his retirement.
He’s not directly affected by unaffordable housing.
He’s never had to spend less because gas prices increased.
He’s never had to ask his young
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@CraigChamberlin
@CollinRugg
Millennials such as ourselves are just now finding out (with companies like Boeing and PG&E) just how expensive it’s going to be making up for decades of Boomers/GenX Jack Welch-ing every major American institution.
It wasn’t lack of meritocracy that’s put Boeing where it’s at.
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@JackFarley96
@SirOfFinance
Yes. For example JPM has $42bn in unrealized HTM security losses with a $48bn derivative net receivable.
IR swaps aren’t rocket science to banks… only armchair bank analysts on Twitter.
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@alvinfoo
Literally have these all over the US. Have you never driven an interstate through the mountains before?
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@altcap
@jaminball
More than enough AUM there to buy the underwater bank. Put your money where your mouth is?
Or did you only like SVB when they subsidize your portcos with cheap capital and leverage?
Also deposits are protected so long as FDIC doesn’t follow VC advice and firesale $150bn in MBS.
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@kane
Not said here:
SF also lets you reschedule jury duty one time, with no reason needed, for any date of your choice within 6 months of your original summons date.
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@thomashawk
“I don’t want to do my job because it’s the part I don’t like doing.”
@oaklandpoliceca
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@RJRCapital
Bro I’m bearish and made money on NVDA shorts but you don’t have to misrepresent reality.
Esp with your additional comment on the replies about margins not expanding.
Do better.
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@mcuban
“Isn’t a bailout”
“Let’s pay par for assets with 1.6% coupons.”
Go back and check whatever undergrad class with bond math 101 you failed, then realize you get to choose only one.
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@itsmarkmoran
Easier: Give $100k tax deduction for a 2x bw deadlift and <15% bf on a dexascan.
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@CorpFinScum
You forget about all the senior leadership roles getting filled with MBB backgrounds due to boomer hiring managers.
When boomers retire a good chunk of F500 companies will have ex-MBB executives.
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@Jason
Yet the homicide rate is just 60% of a city you praise for its crime rates (Miami).
Everything you’re posting on this has been in bad faith.
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@levelsio
Jfc the lack of knowledge.
First, not all PFAS are microplastics.
Second, not all polyester uses PFAS. It’s most common in rainwear (Gore Tex)
Finally, the major athleisure brands stopped using PFAS in their athleisure products years ago (Nike, Lulu, Adidas, Athleta, etc)
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@WillManidis
315# DL is insane? Standards so low these days, Fed should hike 1000bps immediately.
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@jakeonrails
Every piece of code you write should be submitted to the government for review prior to being able to be executed to ensure all laws are being obeyed.
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@BaciKled
@BradSmithUNC
@DanMulroyjr
@anthonychen_atx
You don’t think stochastic calculus is relevant to probability theory?
Lol wut
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@roelofbotha
> Gets surgery in Silicon Valley where docs patients are mostly SV
> Immediate self-aggrandizing tweet that he’s uniquely hard working
Meanwhile a biglaw senior associate gunning for partner is sending turns of merger docs while in labor and no one bats an eye in NYC
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@s_afiaziz
- Rent-to-own has been around since the 1950’s
- Buildings with these amenities have been popular for 20+ years now
- Related and Equity residential have been using proptech apps for nearly a decade
There’s nothing wrong with resi/multifam investing but this is not “innovation”
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@Jason
Remember here’s how Jason responds to a crisis.
And when the adults with cooler heads put together a solution he says “my work here is done.” Lmao
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@teslavangelist
@dieworkwear
The good news is that it doesn’t matter what ethnicity anyone is, we all have a right, possibly considered an obligation, to deride someone going by “teslavangelist”
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@DavidSacks
There’s no systemic risk in SVB. Just because the shit is in your backyard doesn’t make it systemic.
Also FDIC is already protecting deposits, insured up to the $250k and managing the wind down to ensure as much capital is returned as possible.
This isn’t rocket science.
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@Mayhem4Markets
Lmao oddly quiet when it’s not the bank that funds his mortgage and startups.
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@jrichlive
@pitdesi
Did Dartmouth not cover how a market prices near infinitely inelastic demand like healthcare?
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@Jason
Another metric worth comparing is Sharpe.
It compares your return for the volatility you had.
If you matched the return of the market but took less ups and downs in NAV to get there (more stable NAV growth relative to an index) that’s way more desirable.
Sharpe of >2 = elite
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@nikitabier
This feels like an especially relevant meta commentary on the recent PG/DS exchange
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@RhettRe
@TechEmails
Important context: Adobe stopped developing flash in 2011 to focus on HTML5 and flash was officially discontinued in 2020.
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@stathyinc
@lulumeservey
It takes less time to google “the economist beer Kagoshima police” and click the top link than it does to tweet someone else to do it for you.
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@DavidSacks
Maybe SVB should have hedged their insanely long duration book of assets?
IR swaps are not rocket science.
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@CorpFinScum
Or a bunch of execs who like the idea of farming out billable hrs to their friends who’re now partners at their old firm.
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@GRDecter
@Jack_Raines
“Interest could be $1tn or more this year”
*Posts graph that shows $400-500bn interest expense only climbing to $1tn in 2030*
No one is this inadvertently hypocritical or stupid.
Here’s the link for everyone else seeing through this:
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@conorsen
Sure but not sure that’s causal here. There is no shortage of demand to build in SF.
If you own an empty lot in SF, it takes on avg >1000 days to receive permits to begin construction on any housing.
Also most of the city is also zoned as relatively low density (40’ building
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@CorpFinScum
Bc insular networks? Duh.
Also, ex-MBB won’t label MBB as useless because it’s a part of their justification for a leadership role v corporate peers their same age/exp. They’re invested in maintaining that illusion whether they actually think it or not.
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@Keith_Wasserman
@nntaleb
@paulg
It might be wrapped in vitriol but the underlying message isn’t wrong.
Paul achieving great things as a mentor to successful products doesn’t absolve him from criticism when he makes irresponsible and intellectually bankrupt takes.
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@IamScottlarson
@blueprintsmb22
“Anymore”
Engagement bait af.
Get real. The math never worked for a single income+wife+kid with 2br in Manhattan and not in banking/big law role.
The migration to Hoboken of middling level S&T types when they want to start a family has been happening for 10-20 years.
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@HorEmperor
@DavidSacks
Ah yes. Russias own announcements and legislation are part of the woke media.
🤔
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@botoxedbuddhist
You say you’re fighting with big real estate.
Realistically you’re just siding with segregationists’ efforts from the past.
Reminder: 40-X zoning was implemented in 1928 to prevent higher density from being built in the, at the time, wealthier segregated residential neighborhoods.
This is the “culture” NIMBY’s want to preserve instead of letting 4+1 or 5+1 mixed used buildings get constructed now.
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@devahaz
Found the guy who’s never grappled.
Zuck training for a year+ incl privates with guys like Musumeci and Camarillo. Give him 3 months focused on a match and he’s easily a mid tier blue belt.
Musk can’t keep anywhere near the same training cadence either even with peptides.
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@mattaparker
@Javiersantana1
@thesamparr
Jfc people need everything spoonfed these days. Addressed in “Who’s involved”
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@TripleNetInvest
Discussed this with my wife last time we went. They’re exceptional at targeting the prime demo with groceries that are already semi-prepped/ready to combine into a dish.
Things like tubs of mirepoix or pre-brined chicken breast which creates accessibility for working households
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@shaunmmaguire
lol wut
I’m all for shitting on the people unfairly railing against SpaceX but it neuters the point to act like Boeing is their darling.
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@rexsalisbury
Different markets though. CashApp is a huge product for the underbanked whereas Zelle primarily covers people with existing banking relationships (I’ve never seen/heard of anyone dl’ing and use Zelle independently).
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@lulumeservey
If this was really about the consumer, it could have been done anytime in the past 10 years. Quite transparent it’s only happening when trying to beg the FTC to not blow up the merger.
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@conorsen
I don’t think YIMBY’s are arguing their policies eliminate short term gluts or shortages but as a solution to long run stability.
Hard to argue increasing unit supply (YIMBYs primary lever) has not directly impacted housing costs.
size context: SF total housing inventory = 400k
I often think about what an incredible economic uplift the middle class in the trades and construction industries would experience if SF would allow building on this scale.
Instead we only built 2,000 units last year thanks to obstructionists like
@DeanPreston
and
@AaronPeskin
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@samuel_spitz
Have you tried being Adam Neumann? Small adjustments like that right now can really help when the time comes.
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@holliemaea
@kyleichan
@ChrisRinvesting
I didn’t state otherwise above. Maybe you misread?
But your comment is definitely false in the context where it actually counts.
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@ClaraJeffery
@Jason
’s feed looking all sorts of awkward now. Maybe he should have waited for the investigation to share more fact before his performative outrage over “random killings in sf”.
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@Space_Sausages
@SwannMarcus89
Weird how they didn’t invade Finland who literally applied and joined NATO since the war started.
Almost like this has nothing to do with NATO at all in Putin’s mind.
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@rexsalisbury
Likely what he’s getting at: If the DAO has not created any centralized legal entity, it’s legally considered a general partnership which means every token holder, as a general partner, assumes unlimited liability.
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@mattaparker
@Javiersantana1
@thesamparr
He was only involved in OpenAI Nonprofit (the original entity). He had exited involvement well before OpenAI LP (the for profit entity) was formed.
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@Jason
Violent crime has never been at elevated levels in recent SF. In fact 2019 was the lowest homicide rate in the city in the past 60 years.
Violent crime per capita both pre and post pandemic hasn’t been anywhere near other major cities.
Stay grounded in facts bud.
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@CorpFinScum
Option 2 all day.
You’ll still have your relationship with your previous MD/mentor and your tx experience speaks for itself.
Time with investors, broadening perspective with MD’s across verticals, getting to demonstrate competence first hand to sr partner (potentially a
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@GerberKawasaki
@Tweetermeyer
@lorakolodny
“Tesla at L3” implies Tesla takes on legal liability for incidents occurring under an L3 driving system.
Careful, words have consequences champ.
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@decadimitry
No one is saying capitalism isn’t working.
People are saying excessive regulatory intervention has destroyed or eliminated both opportunity and incentives.
For example, the 40’ height limit from 1928 has nothing to do with “capitalism” but has artificially restricted higher
Reminder: 40-X zoning was implemented in 1928 to prevent higher density from being built in the, at the time, wealthier segregated residential neighborhoods.
This is the “culture” NIMBY’s want to preserve instead of letting 4+1 or 5+1 mixed used buildings get constructed now.
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@Jason
None of those individuals are capable of a decent ballet.
Have you not seen the physical athleticism of Swan Lake performers?
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@nikitabier
@henhaohank
You’re probably referring to contract (or term) employees here right?
Those are not independent contractors.
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@jamiequint
They’re too busy tweeting cold takes about how to survive the dot-com bust 2.0 based on their extensive professional experience starting in 2012.
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@hiphopscypher
@HeyJorgeHey
@VeritasBP
@adamcbest
@howardfineman
In 2017 there were 307 homicides in Japan, a country of 125 million. There were 17,284 in the US, a country only 2.5x as populated.
Yeah. Mass stabbings are def the same 🤡
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@Jason
Jason: Bank runs are based on panic
Also Jason: Everyone should buy guns and panic.
Also also Jason: Why won’t the government stop this?
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@Jason
@Noahpinion
We see through the maximum damage control you’re trying to do.
Sorry but people will rightfully only remember you after this as a primary contributor to escalating panic and fear mongering in the middle of a crisis. You’re demonstrated zero capacity as a leader.
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@Woolfie17192681
@Noahpinion
@raleedy
Population growth is positive.
Homeownership flat.
Absolute number of homeowners increases.
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@mattwhitehill1
@s_afiaziz
Mercedes House in NYC is a another perfect example of this being around for the past decade+.
Again nothing wrong with him building out a REIT, but exporting an existing concept to tier 2/3 cities is not innovation. Anyone thinking that is simply caught in the sales pitch.
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@lihanlihan
@Ahsha_Safai
What are the odds he has a financial interest in an already existing dispensary?
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@oldbooksguy
@CoffeewClassics
Yeah. Arcane laws like serfdom, slave labor, and feudalism.
Now we have billionaires building ways to get to mars instead.
What a terrible change in incentives lmao
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@DWeisburd
@bchesky
Nor should they have been. They happily gave away any right to be involved in board decisions when they wrote checks for this structure.
It’s becoming a theme: VC’s blinded by overwhelming greed and then whine when they realize consequences of their choices.
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@lopez4schools
Terror is telling parents their kids in public school shouldn’t be learning Algebra even though they’re capable of it.
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@chrsdcook
The nature of a moderate is being a big enough adult to hold conversations with people you might disagree with but are willing to compromise with because it’s about working together to solve problems in the wider community.
This isn’t rocket science and perspective matters.
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@RJRCapital
Net margins have expanded from
13.4% in Q3’23 (ending 10/22)
to
51.8% in Q3’24 (ending 10/23)
Your post is only showing annual fiscal year results with 2023 FY ending 1/29/2023.
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@CorpFinScum
And by insular networks it’s not just about making friends rich. As long as those friends are partners routinely working with other f500s, you giving them business and staying personally close can easily land you the next exec or board seat in your career.
Soft skills matter.
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@alth0u
Zero chance it’s not delayed or a disappointment to them.
They’ve been lobbying for permission to import their Taiwanese labor and still qualify for their CHIPS Act $ which were intended to homeshore both the manufacturing and domestic technical labor development.
@zachweinberg
Factually untrue framing (that it’s a skill gap).
TSMC toxic work culture is the limitation on their ability to hire Americans and finish their AZ fab.
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@MichaelKantro
VC: individual self-made geniuses during ZIRP/bull markets
Also VC: vital industry that must socialize losses during adversity/bear market
Got it.
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@mcgoverntm
Thomas, you have problems distinguishing from total value vs % change in value?
Very concerned for JPM’s risk modeling now.
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