Jamin Ball
@jaminball
Followers
76,758
Following
1,145
Media
982
Statuses
5,392
Partner at Altimeter partnering with software businesses at the earliest stages of product market fit. Dad to 4 amazing kids. No investment advice
San Francisco, CA
Joined September 2015
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
#TGS2024
• 192887 Tweets
Miami
• 102699 Tweets
Knicks
• 86300 Tweets
Towns
• 74987 Tweets
Minnesota
• 71529 Tweets
Randle
• 66334 Tweets
León
• 66257 Tweets
mingyu
• 53514 Tweets
भगत सिंह
• 50906 Tweets
Donte
• 41552 Tweets
Wolves
• 39800 Tweets
Paola
• 31972 Tweets
The ACC
• 30055 Tweets
DiVincenzo
• 29603 Tweets
#DAY6INBKK2024
• 28937 Tweets
日本破壊クソメガネ
• 22114 Tweets
Virginia Tech
• 20101 Tweets
Cam Ward
• 19536 Tweets
#キントレ
• 17221 Tweets
Canes
• 15528 Tweets
महान क्रांतिकारी
• 14382 Tweets
Rutgers
• 13347 Tweets
ババコンガ
• 11639 Tweets
#bhagatsinghjayanti
• 10825 Tweets
#AFLGF
• 10023 Tweets
Pinned Tweet
I'm launching a newsletter! If you'd like to stay in tune with valuations / trends driving public SaaS businesses please follow along! I'll also provide detailed earnings summaries. More to come-Looking forward to all of your feedback on Clouded Judgement
48
61
675
Cloud Giants Update:
AWS: $51B run rate growing 28% YoY
Azure: ~$29B run rate growing growing 48% YoY (estimate, exact numbers not disclosed)
Google Cloud: $15B run rate growing 47% YoY (includes GCP and GSuite)
Cloud markets are HUGE! So much innovation still to come
20
159
961
Cloud Giants Update:
AWS (Amazon): $71B run rate, growing 40% YoY (accelerating growth from 39%)
Azure (Microsoft): ~$40-$45B run rate, growing 46% YoY (slight decel from 48%)
Google Cloud (includes GSuite): $22B run rate, growing 44% YoY (slight decel from 45%).
19
130
872
Median cloud software multiple is now at 5.6x forward rev. This is 50% below pre covid levels (Feb '20), and 15% below Covid lows (March '20). The lowest the median software multiple ever got post GFC was ~4x in early 2016
48
137
869
Summary of Q1 SaaS earnings. Top decile companies:
- Beat revenue estimates by >10%
- Guided next quarters revenue above estimates by >7%
- Demonstrated >53% YoY growth
- Had >130% net revenue retention
- CAC Payback < 13 months (GM adj)
34
188
789
A lot of people are asking about who I include in my "Tier 1" SaaS names, so here it goes (this is similar to the set of "Secular Growth Stars" I wrote about in an article before Q2 earnings)
My Secular Growth Stars:
Crowdstrike, Datadog, Okta, Shopify, Twilio, Zoom
19
86
778
Cloud Giants Update:
AWS (Amazon): $79B run rate, growing 33% YoY (last Q growth was 37%)
Azure (Microsoft): ~$55B run rate, growing 46% YoY (last Q grew 49%)
Google Cloud (includes GSuite): $25B run rate, growing 36% YoY (last Q grew 44%, but neither are cc).
16
110
772
Some data / stats on AI related products at Microsoft. Real revenue!
Azure AI Services
- $5b run rate up 900% YoY
- 60k customers up 60% YoY
- Responsible for ~8% of overall Azure growth this Q
Developer Tools
- GitHub at $2b run rate (It was ~$1b in Sept '22)
- GitHub
8
46
346
AWS - Monster quarter. Accelerated growth to 40% (39% last quarter) and hit $71B run rate. 30% operating margin. This growth at that scale is incredible! Easily worth >$1T as a standalone company
Cloud markets are huge!
11
74
749
Getting the hospital bill post birth of a child is the best reminder for how broken the healthcare system is. Pre insurance payments the "room and board" charge only for 3days / 2 nights of a semi-private room was $29k. 🤯 This excludes labor /deliver, anesthesia, medication, etc
119
39
657
3 of the biggest software Covid beneficiaries (Zoom, Shopify and Docusign), have round tripped their pre-covid stock price. 2 years of zero gains
31
57
647
Data from Morgan Stanley CIO survey: only 23% of workloads running in the cloud today. Longgggg runway left for cloud software
25
137
635
AWS is at a $74B run rate growing 37% 🤯
Such an incredible business. Even with the pull back of software multiples recently I think AWS standalone would be worth >$1T
20
53
636
AWS is my favorite trillion dollar company hidden in plain sight
$64B run rate, growing 39% and accelerating! AWS has accelerated growth in 4 straight quarters. Can't believe a business this large is growing this fast
24
47
623
Nice visual from the Morgan Stanley software team on 2022 software M&A activity. One deal stands out from the others!
18
77
591
Digital Transformations from Covid are accelerating rev growth in SaaS businesses!! Not so fast...The change in YoY growth rates from Q1 to Q2 tells a different story. Data below shows the absolute change in %. Ex: Fastly grew 38% in Q1 and 62% in Q2 (difference is graphed, +24%)
49
136
581
Digital Transformation Reality Check: Not all SaaS companies have benefited from Covid! In fact, I'd argue only 3 (Zoom, Shopify, Fastly) have truly benefited. With Q2 earnings mostly under wraps, we can look at the absolute change in growth rates from Q2 - Q1
29
104
548
Snowflake quarter:
- $497M rev (+83% YoY) vs $468M consensus (6% beat)
- $503M next Q product rev guidance vs $502M consensus
- $466M product rev +83% YoY
- 171% net retention
- 16 months GM adj. CAC payback
- 65% GM
- 11% FCF Margin
$SNOW
17
54
544
Cloud Giants Update:
AWS (Amazon): $59B run rate, growing 37% YoY (accelerating growth)
Azure (Microsoft): ~$35B run rate, growing 45% YoY (steady growth)
Google Cloud (includes GSuite): $19B run rate, growing 54% YoY (slightly accelerating growth)
9
81
514
Net dollar retention is one of my favorite SaaS metrics. Here's how all SaaS businesses stack up who reported that metric for Q1. >130% is elite!
24
83
498
Net dollar retention is one of my favorite SaaS metrics. Here's how all the cloud companies preformed on this metric (those who reported). Elite companies have net dollar retention >130%
28
62
497
Cloud revenue is exploding. And the wild thing is, we're still in the early innings of cloud penetration. Crazy to think about the value that will be created over the next 5 years. The graph only captures public company rev. With private company data the slope would be steeper
15
53
488
Median software multiple is now 5.7x. This is close to 30% below the long term pre-covid average for the cloud software universe
33
70
485
Shopify with a BLOWOUT quarter. Do people still think their "multiple" is too high? 😀 $SHOP
- $714M rev (+97% YoY) vs $518M consensus
- $196M subscription rev (+28%)
- $518M merchant solutions rev (+148%)
- $30.1B GMV (+119%)
- New stores created (+71%)
- 53% GM
- 8% FCF Margin
15
53
480
Very excited to share I've joined Altimeter Capital! I'll be focused on partnering with the most innovative businesses from their earlier stages through IPO (and beyond). I'm excited to join
@altcap
@kevinjwang
@jamesjho_
@paulinebhyang
@ramhwoo
and the rest of the team
44
1
478
Snowflake quarter:
- $422M rev (+85% YoY) vs $412M consensus (3% beat)
- Product rev guidance implies 72% growth (don't guide total rev)
- $394M product rev (+84%)
- 174% net retention
- 27 months GM adj. CAC payback
- 65% GM
- 41% FCF Margin (Q4 & Q1 seasonally higher)
$SNOW
25
32
478
Cloud software multiples are now exactly where we were pre-covid (looking at overall median). This doesn't mean we can't go lower - nothing magical about pre-covid levels. In fact, they were historically high in Feb '20.
High growth multiples still 54% above pre-covid levels
25
74
471
Cloud Giants Update:
AWS (Amazon): $82B run rate growing 28% YoY (last Q grew 33%)
Azure (Microsoft): In the $50's billion run rate (estimate) growing 42% YoY (last Q grew 46%)
Google Cloud (includes GSuite): $27B run rate growing 38% YoY (last Q grew 36%, neither are cc)
8
81
472
Twilio with a MONSTER quarter
-$548M rev (+65% YoY) vs $453M consensus (21% beat)
- $531M next Q guidance vs $486M consensus (9% raise)
- $23M Segment rev. 59% YoY growth ex Segment
- 139% net retention
- 11 months GM adj. CAC payback (ex Segment)
- 51% GM
- 1% FCF Margin
$TWLO
13
42
461
Shopify with another outstanding quarter. ~$1B FCF run rate!
- $978M rev (+94% YoY) vs $939M consensus
- $279M subscription rev (+53%)
- $698M merchant solutions rev (+117%)
- $41.1B GMV (+99%)
- $227M merchant cash advances / loans (+96%)
- 52% GM
- 24% FCF Margin
$SHOP
13
30
463
Datadog has done an incredible job layering on additional products past their initial "wedge" to become a true platform - and they gave us some data on this today. As the market puts a greater emphasis on bundled platforms today vs point solutions, they appear to be an
24
46
448
AWS: $51B run rate growing 28% YoY. Incredibly impressive to maintain nearly 30% growth at this kind of scale.
Andy Jassy will transition into the CEO role at Amazon (Bezos to executive chairman). If you needed more evidence of the importance of AWS within Amazon you got it
13
57
425
Reflecting on digital transformations vs pull forward for cloud software over the long weekend - I think we've largely seen 3 different ways cloud software was affected by Covid:
1) Fake TAM creation
2) One time pull forward
3) Durable pull forward
13
79
433
Datadog MONSTER quarter. Accelerating, GAAP Profitable, hyper efficient 🤯📈
- $326M rev (+84% YoY) vs $291M consensus (12% beat)
- $337M next Q guidance vs $310M consensus (9% raise)
- >130% net retention
- 5 months GM adj. CAC payback
- 79% GM
- 33% FCF Margin
$DDOG
10
28
429
Some great slides from the Crowdstrike investor briefing last week. A few call outs on what makes them such a great business, that others should aspire to:
1. TAM Expansion: The best businesses increase the size of the pie, not just their piece
13
60
419
Impressive Twilio quarter
- $843M rev (+54% YoY) vs $768M consensus (10% beat)
- $860M next Q guidance vs $806M consensus (7% raise)
- 39% most accurate growth figure. Organic ex political rev
- 126% net retention
- 16 months GM adj. CAC payback
- 47% GM
- (7%) FCF Margin
$TWLO
19
47
423
Bifurcation of software multiples as seen on a scatter plot (multiple vs growth). Historically all software has traded within red circle. Now a separate group has broken out. Is it warranted? After Q4 earnings, I believe we'll see more separation of contenders from pretenders
18
69
415
I'm increasingly convinced the most exciting area to invest in over the next 10 years will be modern data infrastructure. So much innovation happening in the space! The number of impressive companies at the seed, Series A and Series B stage is staggering
30
30
411
Twilio is driving digital communication strategies. ~50% growth at ~$1.6B ARR 🤯
- $401M rev (+46% YoY) vs $368M consensus (9% beat)
- $404M guidance for next Q vs $381M consensus (6% raise)
- 132% net retention
- 19 months implied GM CAC payback
- 52% GM
- ~1% FCF Margin
$TWLO
18
56
404
Crowdstrike delivered a MASSIVE quarter. Accelerating rev growth, big FCF
- $232M rev (+86% YoY) vs $213M consensus (9% beat)
- $248M next Q guidance vs $232M consensus (7% raise)
- $214M subscription rev (+87%)
- 13 months GM adj. CAC payback
- 74% GM
- 33% FCF Margin
$CRWD
11
40
405
YoY growth in quarterly net new ARR added has started to rebound in software (includes ~50 software companies who report ARR or who have a recurring revenue model who have reported Q3 so far)
14
52
407
Cloud Giants Update:
AWS (Amazon): $64B run rate, growing 39% YoY (accelerating growth from 37%)
Azure (Microsoft): ~$35-$40B run rate, growing 48% YoY (accelerating growth from 45%)
Google Cloud (includes GSuite): $20B run rate, growing 45% YoY (decelerating growth from 54%)
7
65
403
Azure at a ~$74B run rate growing 28% constant currency
Quarterly YoY growth trends below. Also shown estimated growth ex AI services. Not all software co's have the AI accelerant Microsoft does!
In last 3 quarters AI Services run rate has gone ~$500m > ~$2B > ~$4B $MSFT
11
38
401
Here’s the challenge. The private markets are FULL of companies who were growing 50-100% at ~$100m of ARR. And the reality today is many of those are now growing <20% at $200-$300m ARR. TAMs were captured sooner and companies didn’t scale into their next product line, large
Agree entirely. Software companies can certainly go public with $150m in revenue. You just have to be willing to accept the market clearing price, which very well may be 6x revenue. And that’s really hard when private markets are valuing you at 30x. There’s a valuation airpocket
13
19
211
19
33
392
Datadog with a monster quarter📈 Big acceleration:
- $270M rev (+75% YoY) vs $248M consensus (9% beat)
- $291M next Q guidance vs $263M consensus (11% raise)
- Last Q YoY growth was 67%
- >130% net retention
- 7 months GM adj. CAC payback
- 77% GM
- 21% FCF Margin
$DDOG
7
41
386
What should a public software company growing 100%+ at $250M+ ARR be worth (multiple)? There are very few companies to hit this. Im excluding companies that hit that growth only bc of covid. I believe that list includes Snowflake, SentinelOne, Zoom, Crowdstrike, Shopify, Workday
29
48
378
We've seen some extraordinary IPO pops recently (change in IPO price to day 1 price). nCino popped 195%, Agora popped 153%, Lemonade popped 139%, and ZoomInfo popped 62%.
Why is this happening? In my thread below I'll go over the basics of an IPO process and explain the pops 👇
27
69
380
AWS would be a $1Tn standalone public company! They're at a $43B revenue run rate with 31% operating margins growing 29% YoY. Incredible $AMZN
7
37
371
Snowflake - huge quarter with impressive acceleration at scale:
- $334M rev (+110% YoY) vs $305M consensus (9% beat)
- Product rev guidance implies 95% growth
- Last Q YoY growth was 104%
- 173% net retention
- 15 months GM adj. CAC payback
- 64% GM
- 3% FCF Margin
$SNOW
18
29
368
This question comes up a lot, here’s my take.
High growth software companies today are trading at ~10x forward revenue overall median closer to 7x.
Many growth stage companies raised huge rounds in 2020/2021. Their balance sheet is loaded with 3-5+ years of runway. And even
Stupid question: given the public tech markets are most of the way back to their highs, why is still no one doing growth stage investments?
46
11
129
17
51
365
A side-by-side comparison of Crowdstrike and SentinelOne. Showing both Crowdstrike's stats at IPO, and current. Crowdstrike went public in June '19 $CRWD $S
21
49
358
Cloud Giants Update:
AWS (Amazon): $100B run rate growing 17% YoY (last Q grew 13%)
Azure (Microsoft): ~$76B run rate (estimate) growing 31% YoY (last Q grew 28%)
Google Cloud (includes GSuite): $38B run rate growing 28% YoY (last Q grew 26%, neither are cc)
7
83
358
Crowdstrike with a MONSTER quarter🤯🔥
- $199M rev (+84% YoY) vs $188M consensus (6% beat)
- $213M guidance for next Q vs $196M consensus (9% raise)
- Subs rev grew 89%, after growing 89% last Q
- 124% net retention
- 16 months GM adj CAC payback
- 73% GM
- 16% FCF Margin
$CRWD
15
54
359
Trend in cloud software: Growth Durability 📈📈
Historically, many people have overestimated how quickly software companies would decelerate growth. below chart shows rough Datadog quarterly growth expectations at IPO (orange) and actual (blue)
11
45
361
Net retention is one of my favorite SaaS metrics. In Q4, the best companies had net retention >133%. This type of net retention generally signals a forward path of sustainable high growth
27
38
361
Stock Based Compensation (SBC) is a hidden cost in Non-GAAP financials of cloud software businesses. Incentivizing employees with equity over cash compensation increases future dilution while reducing short term cash outflows. Which companies "spend" the most on SBC? See below:
22
49
354
Next week kicks off the start of SaaS earnings season! Most SaaS companies with June quarter ends will report over a two week stretch, with a couple stragglers reporting after. If you'd like to follow along I've created a calendar below that shows when each company reports!
10
70
359
Analyst sentiment on some of the hottest SaaS stocks today:
Zoom $ZM
- 43% Buy
- 50% Hold
- 7% Sell
Datadog $DDOG
- 50% Buy
- 50% Hold
Fastly $FSLY
- 58% Buy
- 25% Hold
- 17% Sell
Shopify $SHOP
- 44% Buy
- 50% Hold
- 6% Sell
Crowdstrike $CRWD
- 73% Buy
- 23% Hold
- 5% Sell
11
51
349
High growth software now trading at 8.2x forward rev. Overall median at 6.7x forward rev (same as covid low). The overall median is 15-25% below the long term median (depending on how you cut the data)
19
47
354
Microsoft over and over again on the earnings call: DEMAND FOR AZURE AI FAR OUTSTRIPPED SUPPLY
must have been said 10+ times. Theme of the call "we're capacity constrained"
On CapEx - will continue build out as long as demand signals persist, which as of now are very strong
10
41
356
Salesforce's acquisition of Mulesoft for $6.5B 3 years ago (May '18) was such a massive steal, and great strategic move.
In Q1 Salesforce announced Mulesoft contributed $380M in rev, growing 49% YoY. What would that business be worth today? $40B? $50B?
14
35
352
Cloud Giants Update:
AWS (Amazon): $86B run rate growing 20% YoY (last Q grew 28%)
Azure (Microsoft): In the mid $50's billion run rate (estimate) growing 38% YoY (last Q grew 42%)
Google Cloud (includes GSuite): $29B run rate growing 32% YoY (last Q grew 38%, neither are cc)
5
63
351
Put aside everything happening in the macro - the fundamental businesses of cloud software are as good as I can ever remember. AWS, Azure, GCP all crushing it. Qualtrics, ServiceNow, Atlassian, Bill monster quarters
Excited for the rest of Q4 earnings season!
6
31
347
Since July Shopify's share price is flat, yet their forward revenue multiple is down 33%. This is the epitome of growing into a multiple. With run ups like we've seen often the best case scenario is a horizontal grind while multiples retreat to more sustainable levels $SHOP
14
23
342
Crowdstrike quarter. Very impressive, no deceleration in growth
- $338M rev (+70% YoY) vs $323M consensus (5% beat)
- $362M next Q guidance vs $350M consensus (3% raise)
- $1.34B ARR (+70%)
- >120% net retention
- 16 months GM adj. CAC payback
- 73% GM
- 22% FCF Margin
$CRWD
6
29
338
Very impressive Crowdstrike quarter 🔥
- $265M rev (+74% YoY) vs $250M consensus (6% beat)
- $290M next Q guidance vs $270M consensus (8% raise)
- $245M subscription rev (+77%)
- 125% net retention
- 15 months GM adj. CAC payback
- 75% GM
- 37% FCF Margin
$CRWD
10
30
335
My biggest takeaway from Q3 cloud earnings? We REALLY saw cloud businesses ACCELEERATE. Since Covid began we heard anecdotal data of "digital transformations accelerating." But the data was never there. It is now. Data below shows the absolute change in rev growth % from Q3 to Q2
13
42
341
Two of the major cloud providers reported today:
Azure (Microsoft): ~$35B run rate, growing 45% YoY. Slight deceleration from last Q 46% growth
Google Cloud (includes GSuite): $19B run rate, growing 54% YoY. Last Q 46% growth (don't think this is constant currency)
Impressive
6
57
341
The vast majority of IT spend is still on prem, yet AWS, Azure and Google Cloud represent nearly $200B of run rate revenue growing 20% YoY🤯
Big reason I'm excited about the next 10 years of investing in software, and particularly infrastructure software
19
29
338
Software earnings season so far has shown us one thing: top-line re-acceleration is not right around the corner...It's actually the opposite - forward estimates are coming down, not up. More companies are missing forward guide this quarter (72%!) than any point in last 5 years
16
69
332
Is the software recession over?? Nice discussion from
@DavidSacks
. In the episode they looked at one of the charts I put together that showed net new ARR growth YoY finally picking back up.
I wanted to dig a little deeper on the data behind that chart, and show how net new ARR
E156 - BIG EP!
-- ivy league antisemitism hearings
-- murky macro picture
-- saas bounce back, green shoots
--
@friedberg
's next move: ceo of
@ohalo
-- $GOOG announces gemini, industry impact
--
@figma
/
@Adobe
deal stalled due to the uk's cma
157
143
1K
19
64
302
Some takeaways from Morgan Stanley's Q4 CIO survey
- Software has the highest growth expectations in IT
- Strong demand in software persisting (not simply pull forward in 2021)
- Cloud computing remains CIO's top priorities
- Security software most defensible
More graphs below
11
74
325
Twilio with a BLOWOUT quarter ACCELERATING rev growth 🔥🚀
- $448M rev (+52% YoY) vs $407M consensus (10% beat)
- $453M guidance for next Q vs $434M consensus (4% raise)
- ~$1.8B implied ARR
- 137% net retention
- 16 months GM adj. CAC payback
- 52% GM
- ~(5%) FCF Margin
$TWLO
13
33
328
Satya on the Microsoft call today: "Every AI app starts with data and having a comprehensive data and analytics platform is more important than ever."
Furthering the message of you need a data strategy before you have an AI strategy. Need to hit step 1 before step 2
13
44
315
High growth software (projected to grow 30%+ NTM) multiple about to break 10x NTM rev.
22
32
324
Twilio quarter 💪
- $669M rev (+67% YoY) vs $599M consensus (12% beat)
- $675M next Q guidance vs $640M consensus (5% raise)
- $47M rev from Segment. 55% YoY growth ex Segment
- 135% net retention
- 16 months GM adj. CAC payback
- 50% GM
- 0% FCF Margin
$TWLO
5
27
314
Couple interesting slides from the Coupa / Thoma Bravo acquisition deck.
1. Management projections for '23 (FY '24) are for 12% growth. Street consensus is 18%. A big debate right now is if forward estimates are too high. Coupa would suggest they are. Idiosyncratic or broader?
8
33
315
Alteryx just raised guidance for Q3 to $126M - $128M, up from previous guidance of $111M - $115M. Stock up 30% after hours.
Alteryx is now the second cloud business to raise expectations for Q3 ahead of earnings (Twilio did it last week).
Big earnings season on tap for cloud?
20
26
310
PEG is a popular metric that adjusts P/E multiples by dividing it by earnings growth. We can do something similar for SaaS companies EV/Rev multiple and their rev growth. This in theory "normalizes" each revenue multiple for growth. Below is a graph that shows EV/Rev/Growth (NTM)
27
55
311
Cloudflare vs Fastly
Currently Cloudflare trades at ~37x NTM revenue and Fastly trades at 28x NTM revenue (after their drop this week). Who deserves the higher multiple? Is the gap justifiable?
$NET $FSLY
31
39
303
Summary of Q2 SaaS earnings. Top decile companies:
- Beat revenue estimates by >10%
- Guided next quarters revenue above estimates by >6%
- Grew >62% YoY
- Had >132% net revenue retention
- CAC Payback < 15 months (GM adj)
- 2021 estimates revised up >6%
11
77
303
Lots of SaaS IPO filings this week. If you're looking for some real profitability check out GoodRx who just filed today - >30% GAAP Operating Margins! Don't need to strip out stock based compensation to make them profitable :) $GDRX
10
34
305
Klaviyo built their business the old fashioned way - with capital efficient profits! Awesome to see a software company hit GAAP profitability before going public. They're rewarded with a top 10 software multiple today. Altimeter is excited to participate in the IPO $KVYO
6
22
302
Snowflake quarter. No one safe from multiple normalization
- $384M rev (+101% YoY) vs $372M consensus (3% beat)
- Product rev guidance implies 80% growth (don't guide total rev)
- 178% net retention
- 19 months GM adj. CAC payback
- 65% GM
- 18% FCF Margin
$SNOW
22
20
301
Azure at a ~$81B run rate growing 30% constant currency
Quarterly YoY growth trends below. Also shown estimated growth ex AI services for last couple quarters. This quarter AI represented 8% of growth (7% last Q, 6% Q before, 3% Q before that, 1% Q before that) $MSFT
7
39
302
Crowdstrike with an impressive quarter:
- $380M rev (+63% YoY) vs $363M consensus (5% beat)
- $409M next Q guidance vs $400M consensus (3% raise)
- $1.51B ARR (+67%) > last Q +70% growth
- >120% net retention
- 15 months GM adj. CAC payback
- 73% GM
- 32% FCF Margin
$CRWD
11
25
297
Microsoft just gave us a glimpse into what's to come for cloud earnings season. Azure revenue growth ACCELERATED to 48% YoY. Cloud adoption is picking back up. Accelerating at this scale is crazy. Last 4 Q's YoY Azure growth:
FQ3 '20: 61%
FQ4 '20: 50%
FQ1 '21: 47%
FQ2 '21: 48%
4
29
294
Crowdstrike quarter:
- $535M rev (+58% YoY) vs $516M consensus (4% beat)
- $573M next Q guidance vs $570M consensus (1% raise)
- Raised FY guidance 1%
- $2.14B ARR (+59% YoY)
- >120% net retention
- 14 months GM adj. CAC payback
- 74% GM
- 25% FCF Margin
$CRWD
12
23
294
Impressive Crowdstrike quarter. Accelerating net new ARR
- $431M rev (+63% YoY) vs $411M consensus (5% beat)
- $462M next Q guidance vs $443M consensus (4% raise)
- Last Q rev grew 63%
- $1.73B ARR (+65%)
- 14 months GM adj. CAC payback
- 74% GM
- 30% FCF Margin
$CRWD
12
26
291
AWS crossed a $100B run rate growing 17%! Truly MASSIVE scale
Quarterly YoY growth trends in below chart. $AMZN
6
41
289
Datadog quarterly results:
- $178M rev (+56% YoY) vs $164M consensus (9% beat)
- $186M next Q guidance vs $182M consensus (2% raise)
- $91M net new ARR added ($59M last Q)
- 10 months GM adj. CAC payback
- 77% GM
- 9% FCF Margin
$DDOG
12
16
286
Elastic never gets the premium valuation, but always impresses
- $193M rev (+50% YoY) vs $172M consensus (12% beat)
- $194M next Q guidance vs $189M consensus (3% raise)
- ~130% net retention
- 26 months GM adj. CAC payback
- 74% GM
- 6% FCF Margin
$ESTC
15
23
286
Snowflake very impressive quarter
- $272M rev (+104% YoY) vs $256M consensus (6% beat)
- Guided for +91% Q3 product rev growth (Q2 was 103%)
- Full year FCF guidance raised from 0% to 7%
- 169% net retention
- 20 months GM adj. CAC payback
- 61% GM
- (4%) FCF Margin
$SNOW
7
19
283
The median cloud software NTM revenue multiple is now 5.5x, which is a 5 year low. The last time the median multiple was lower was late 2016 early 2017. The covid low (March 2020) median multiple was 6.6x (20% higher than where we are now)
18
28
283
13
37
281
By far one of my favorite charts from the quarterly Morgan Stanley CIO survey: currently only 26% of application workloads are run in the cloud. This is expected to grow to 42% by the end of 2023. Still sooooo much room to run in cloud markets
5
41
285
The power of the cloud in one simple graphic. Cloud provides a multiplier on the size of traditional markets
Link for graphic:
17
61
270
Many people think we're in a SaaS bubble. I disagree. SaaS businesses will defy the law of large numbers and sustain high growth rates at scale, due to cloud penetration accelerating, growing into their high valuations quickly
My Q2 Earnings Preview:
18
41
278
Google Cloud (includes GSuite): $22B run rate, growing 44% YoY (maintaining impressive growth from last quarter of 45%).
Cloud giants reporting impressive results so far (Microsoft & Google). Amazon (AWS) reports Thursday
5
26
278