Isaac
@ValueIsaac2002
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Student | Living Berlin | Investing since 2018
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I've just published my write up on Tier1 Technologies S.A.
A high quality company active in the IT-Services/Software space, poised for double digit EBITDA growth and trading at 7x EV/EBITDA.
I am soon going to publish a write up on S.
On a Spanish nanocap Software/IT-Services company trading at 7x EV/EBITDA, growing strongly and with an expansion strategy inplace.
Also operating leverage is starting to show. (20% topline vs 70% EBITDA growth FY23)
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Got some great Christmas gifts
Looking forward to finally read Poor Charlie’s Almanack
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I am soon going to publish a write up on S.
On a Spanish nanocap Software/IT-Services company trading at 7x EV/EBITDA, growing strongly and with an expansion strategy inplace.
Also operating leverage is starting to show. (20% topline vs 70% EBITDA growth FY23)
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A few days ago I published a write up on my s*u*b*s*t*a*c*k
It’s on Allgeiern $AEIN
A German IT-Services company with some very high growing high quality assets trading at 5x EV/EBITDA FY24e (Link in Bio)
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$TR1.MC
Comerzzia Write Up coming out this or next Week👀
Writing more in-depth about:
-Sector: Omnichannel POS solutions & unified retail
-Comerzzia's solutions & pricing
-Customers
-Partners
-Competition
-Subsidiaries
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@HariSeldomRight
Going to publish a write up later this week on a stock trading at a 6,5x EV/EBITDA, c.20M Marketcap, growing very strongly, Spanish Software company, operating leverage is just starting to show. My base case is c. 15% top line and 30% bottom line growth (due to op. Leverage + mix
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My Notes/most interesting quotes on the Presentation of the CEO of $KSPI (Mikhail Lomtadze) at the international forum Digital Almaty 2023 (7.2.2023).
The Video is not in English the quotes are from the subtitles.
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$TR1.MC Hosted its AGM on Thursday evening here are some of my insights
BIG Disclaimer: The AGM got recorded and automatically transcribed by a friend and then translated - so some of the informations might not be fully accurate
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Quick Update:
The article will be published at the early next week or Sunday, due to having a higher UNI workload than anticipated.
$TR1.MC
Comerzzia Write Up coming out this or next Week👀
Writing more in-depth about:
-Sector: Omnichannel POS solutions & unified retail
-Comerzzia's solutions & pricing
-Customers
-Partners
-Competition
-Subsidiaries
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$SPR.WA just published its AR
Q4: rev up 5% yoy, EBITDA down 55% (4,4% margin)
Full year: rev up 26%, EBITDA down 18% (8,9% margin)
Guidance: lower end of the aimed for 25-35% (rev) and 11-14% EBITDA-Margin
EV/EBITDA = 11, I expect c. 30% EBITDA-growth going forward
Some Notes:
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I just published a write up on Spyrosoft / $SPR.WA
A cheap polish IT-Services provider
I welcome any feedback or constructive criticism regarding my thesis or write-up.
A quick summary of my thesis:
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Any one wanting some more insight into the current situation at $SPR.WA should definitely listen to the Q1FY23 & FY22 Call.
Especially the Questions section of the call is a great source for some great insights.
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I looked a bit more into $SPR.WA Margins and I believe an increase to 12% next year is quite reasonable even in this week environment.
This year we saw a decrease in EBITDA margins of 5,5 p.p. (15,9->10,4) due to 1. Bench (2,3%) 2. FX (1,9%) 3. Other/SGA (1,3%)
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achieve their long-term EBIT + EBITDA Margin goal this Q. And want to continue to grow these as well.
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$KSPI just published its Q1, results seem great
I trimmed my position after the FT article came out.
I have quite the hard time anticipating future government behaviour, so I took some chips off the table.
I hope the management is going to comment on this in the call.
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Had an absolutely fantastic time at the BRK AGM! I am very grateful for the past 7 days in Omaha, which were filled with so many enriching conversations and connections made with brilliant minds. Huge thanks to Tilman
@goodinvestingc
for putting together so many amazing events.
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I just finished my write up on this nano cap.
Going to be published on S*u*b*s*t*a*c*k tomorrow around 12am CET.
I am soon going to publish a write up on S.
On a Spanish nanocap Software/IT-Services company trading at 7x EV/EBITDA, growing strongly and with an expansion strategy inplace.
Also operating leverage is starting to show. (20% topline vs 70% EBITDA growth FY23)
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Ive been looking at $KSPI for a while now.
A quick summary of some of my thoughts on the company.
EV/FCF ≈ 8
PE ≈ 11
Revenue CAGR 5 years ≈ 30%
Net-Income CAGR 5 Years ≈ 51%
Net-Cash ≈ 410m KZT
MAU ≈ 12,2m
DAU ≈ 7,8m
Retention rate for Consumers and merchants ≈ 98%
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$TR1
Comerzzia has a new "Gold Certified Partner":
Inetum
2,5Bln Revenues (FY23)
28K employees
Operating worldwide
Specialised in Retail IT
this is quite the positive news and might lead to further acceleration of growth
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$TR1.MC - A new large shareholder
- The CEO sold 190K at 2,6EUR to an institutional investor from France.
- The CEO now should own c.42% of the company vs c.44% previously
==> I think this is quite neutral (maybe slightly positive sign)
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@Investmentideen
Should be a 3x in 3 years
My Assumptions in a base case / conservative scenario:
11% FCF yield FY24 & growing FCF +25% for FY25-26 (growth should continue for a few years after FY26) & c.8,2x = EV/FCFF and should be at least 15x in FY26 (in my option)
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Tagged, some people who I thought might like this idea
@IggyOnInvesting
@david_katunaric
@Investmentideen
@HariSeldomRight
@Floebertus
@gbcvalue
@DakotasTwits
@DGenchev
@Secrets4stocks
@LogicalThesis
@Preis_und_Wert
@adriantford
@Kreuzmann13
@dede_eyesan
@LukeWolgram
@mavix_leon
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@evfcfaddict
I might start to sound like a broken record, but:
Going to publish a write up on a company on Friday.
7x EV/EBITDA and I believe they should be able to grow EBITDA by +20% for the next years
Net cash
-Software business, 50% recurring rev
Paying out 50% of net income as a dividend
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I just posted a short note (see link on my Profil) the aforementioned Interview with Konrad Weiske the CEO of $SPR.WA
KW touched on:
1. AI's role now and in the future in IT-Services
2. PL Macro regarding IT-Services
3. The new contract (BBC)
4. Codibly (M&A target)
5. ...
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$SPR.WA - Published its Annual yesterday evening.
(Only in PL, anyone who wants a translated version DM me)
FCF = 19m (NI vs FCF due to large receivables increase)
Net-Income = 37m (118% growth)
Revenue = 330m (90% increase), Organic growth of 72%
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$SPR.WA, spyrosoft published its Annual report yesterday, for whatever reason they haven't uploaded it to their IR yet. I was able to find the PL version on some local stock website:
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@capitalemployed
@WallStGunslingr
@CapitalVoss
@Driscoll_04
@adriarivero_
@StephenFrampto9
@alex_dragut
@augustusville
@memyselfandi006
@dylan522p
@DavidDiranko
Thanks for mentioning my Write up!
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@Secrets4stocks
@Fin_Eng_Net
@VrntPerception
@LatamStocks
@ParetoSecNO
@equitybaron
@david_katunaric
@IggyOnInvesting
@FundasyInvestor
@ReturnsJourney
@BrazilStocksBR
@Growth_Value_
@dede_eyesan
@alexeliasson
@evfcfaddict
@MikeFritzell
I'm honored to be mentioned alongside all these great accounts. Thanks!
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$KSPI just published its Q1 results.
Some highlights:
Rev up 53% and Net Income up 52%
Number of merchants yoy up 75% (to over 500k)
Monthly transaction up 20% yoy (to 64)
Segment Growth (yoy)
Payments: Rev 59%, NI 67%
Marketplace: Rev 97%, NI 104%
Fintech: Rev 35%, NI 24%
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Great H1 at $KSPI.
-Guidance up
-Continuing to grow like crazy & expand into new verticals
-Acquisition of classifieds business in KZ
Trading at a Fwd. PE of 8
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Spyrosoft / $SPR
Interesting...
As far as I remember the only IP they own is located in the Geospatial unit and not really relevant for revenues.
I would love to see SPR roll-out more solutions/IP like this.
📲 Introducing VoicePro, an intelligent
#voicebot
by Spyrosoft that revolutionises
#customercommunication
. With advanced
#AI
, VoicePro responds intuitively to customers, acting like an experienced
#consultant
and saving valuable time.
Book a consultation with our expert today
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$D6H guidance for FY23
510-530 Rev
79-81 EBITDA
(Figures incl. inorganic growth)
18,5M p.a. new revenues coming in fully in FY24/25 (due to ramping up phase of c.9 months)
-the large investments into AI, cyber security and managed services are part of OPEX and scare me a bit
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$SCS Plc just published its H1 results.
Results look ok to good.
LFL still growin.
Net Income is negative, -5,2m (could have been a lot worse)
Positive FCF, 14m (due to high positive NWC changes)
Stable amount of cash,
cash - unearned Revenues = 45m
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$SPR.WA - Interview Konrad Wiske
I would highly recommend anyone interested in the company to listen to the interview or reach out to me for a translated version.
I will tweet a summary this evening or at some point tomorrow...
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@InvestRoiss
@Secrets4stocks
@evfcfaddict
@capitalemployed
@Fin_Eng_Net
@alexeliasson
@equitybaron
@dede_eyesan
@BrazilStocksBR
@IggyOnInvesting
@david_katunaric
@LatamStocks
@Growth_Value_
@pedroleongarci2
@Paul_Wildcat
@uv_shares
I see your point in the Long term view.
But in the short to medium term I don't think that Wage growth will be as substantial as you assume.
Currently wages are quite stable.
And through the expansion into other even cheaper wage countries & via heavy productivity measures
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$SPR.WA / Spyrosoft just upload a English version of the Annual report.
Summarising the financial results of the Spyrosoft Group for 2022 regarding the assumptions set out in the strategy for 2022-2026, we're glad to inform that the growth plans were exceeded. Every key milestone is reflected in our yearly financial results:
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Here a quick overview of the Subsidiaries unconsolidated Net Income
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I just published a Write up on Allgeier $AEIN on Substack.
Its a small cap German IT-Services company, with
-high quality assets
-a great management team a with proven track record of creating value
-a low valuation
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After some further digging, it seems like they make most of their revenues in France & Spain (as of FY21).
And Omnichannel solutions do play a vital role (they name it first on their website under the header: "Our solutions include...")
This again is a indicator of C's quality
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The podcast from which I've learned the most is, Ep. 365 Focused compounding. It gives a comprehensive overview + discusses Moats, durability, disadvantages and ad. of scale and many other related topics. Around a year ago it helped me a lot to get some more clarity &
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$D6H.DE / Datagroup published H1 earnings,
Rev up by 1,4%
EBITDA up by 5,7%
EPS up by 15%
-> strong gain in margins due to cost efficiency program + more high quality (CORBOX) revenues
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$SPR.WA published its Q1 Report today
Revenue 104M (+74% YoY, +4% QoQ)
Gross Margin 34,6% (+1,2%, FY22 = 33,2%)
G&A-costs 24,8% (+5,5%, FY22 = 19,3%)
-due to more HR and company offices spend
EBITDA-Margin 12,2% (-4%, FY22 =16,2%)
(Link to Q1FY23 Report below)
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$SPR.PL / Spyrosoft
Is anyone listening to the Q3 call today and might be able to send me their recording?
Won’t be able to make it due to work.
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Just found one of the rare interviews with Thomas Murphy with HBS, from 2000.
After hearing about him in the Outsiders book review on ADI. I was looking for some more in-depth Biography and found this. Does anyone know of any other good sources on him?
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$PHLL Petershill Q1FY24
-15% FP AUM growth yoy
-Guidance reiterated
-realisation environment still weak
M&A:
-bought $150m stake in Kennedy Lewis Investment Management (a Private credit firm)
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I finally managed to finish the newest paper published by
@dede_eyesan
: "Polish Equities".
I can highly recommend it for anyone interested in the polish market. It gives a comprehensive overview of it and of some key risks+opportunities. (+ its pretty short, only 26 Pages)
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@evfcfaddict
I think the probability of an enormous upside is hard to predict with this company.
But even if most of their growth initiatives don't go as planned I think they should be able to grow 10% p.a. top line in the software segment, where all the profitability is coming from
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Truly enjoyed the EPAM write up by
@valuepunks
, its a bit older (published March 2022) but gives a great summary on the IT-Services history and some large underlying trends
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Please reach out to me if I got something wrong or missed something, as I said at the start, text to speech + translation might have lead to some errors in the Transcript
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Management sees a lot of challenges in the next year but still firmly believes the goals for 2022-2026 realistically achievable.
Im going to go through the whole annual tomorrow and might give a quick update of some highlights if I find anything interesting.
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My thoughts:
-No huge surprises
-The Software subsidiaries (all but ASG) are growing strongly yoy
-Comerzzia grew Net income by 100% H2FY22 vs H2FY23
-The IT-Services segment is back to profitability which is a really good sign
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@bkaellner
% Universe = % of Nr. of all stocks in the world
% Subset = % of stocks which 10x from 2012-2022
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I enjoyed listing to the Interview/business breakdown of $KSPI with
@FokinArtem
on the YAV Podcast. Its a great summary of business Model, risks, future growth drivers...
If anyone is looking for an introduction of $KSPI I would highly recommend to listen to it.
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Q1 SPR.WA
Rev +3,8%
EBITDA margin 10,9%
Excl. FX effects:
Rev +11%
EBITDA margin 16,5%
Other:
-Contract with BBC will show effects in Q3
-Letter of intent for Codibly (M&A) sent latest 30.6
-Bench still very high (a bit lower yoy)
-Increasing importance of DACH & Automotive
The
#financialresults
of Spyrosoft Group for
#Q1
2024 have been published! 📊
📌 The Group's
#revenue
increased by 3.8% year over year to PLN 108.4 million at the end of Q1 2024.
📌 The Management Board is implementing the adopted “Strategy for 2022-2026” and upholding its
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4. As far as Management knows, the French fund buying wasn't connected with Inetum
5. H2 will be a lot better than H1
6. The management team hasn't noticed a change in the Market environment
7. some big contract which will be closed in late H1 or early H2
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I bought a tiny Position some time ago, like the thesis but it’s totally out of my circle of competence. So will stay a tiny position (at cost c.2% of portfolio)
$MOB.ST Elevator Pitch: there's 1.2+ billion people in the world with an average of 2-4 toes infected with fungus. Only about 160 million of those get treatment. Why? Because topicals don't work, and orals are slow and wreck your body.
Moberg invented a topical that is better
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@HerediaLaso
Main short term driver for costs are the ca. 10% of employees (as of Q1) which aren't working on any projects. up from 2-2,5% in Mid FY22.
But will be a large enabler of growth in FY24, IF demand recovers.
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One of the best podcasts/talks I’ve listened to in a long time (Charlie Mungers talk: „the psychology of human missjudgement”)
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@IggyOnInvesting
In the past few weeks I started to listen to some peek cycle Interviews from 2021/2022, really interesting how people justified high valuations and generally how sentiment changed vs today
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Spyrosoft is going to report Q4FY23 figures tomorrow
If the results are consistent with the other Qs and with the overall sector then we should see a decline in revenues (and due to operating leverage also in EBIT Margins)
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@vk250382
@ToffCap
Maybe first read my or
@FinSkeptic
write up, it might change your mind
I do think the extra work is worth it with this situation
I believe +300% upside is quite reasonable in 3-5 years (im extremely biased though its by far my largest position, no fin advice)
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@evfcfaddict
Add some operating leverage and you still should get a double digit CAGR without multiple expansion
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7.1 we will get more infos on this on the 1. of July
8. They still don't feel pressure to do M&A if they don't find the right solutions / Partners at the right price
8.1 They believe they don't need more solutions in their offering and are rather looking for more sales channels
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@InvestRoiss
@Secrets4stocks
@evfcfaddict
@capitalemployed
@Fin_Eng_Net
@alexeliasson
@equitybaron
@dede_eyesan
@BrazilStocksBR
@IggyOnInvesting
@david_katunaric
@LatamStocks
@Growth_Value_
@pedroleongarci2
@Paul_Wildcat
@uv_shares
I think there is the possibility for only a slight compression of margins.
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@GrowthyValue
Once a week I put all the episodes which I would like to listen to in the following week into a playlist, usually consisting of around 14h of podcasts. I like this approach because it leads to a more conscious selection of what to spend time on.
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Can only agree, great guy - constantly coming up with great underflowed ideas
One of my favorite writers over at
@MicroCapClub
is also here on finX. It`s pretty ridiculous to see that he doesn`t even have 1.000 followers (ok it`s 996 now) yet. Give him a follow, he is one of the very good guys and even answers in German (and English):
@FinSkeptic
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@simpleinvest01
$TR1 (Nanocap, cheap, with a high quality growing software business totally ignored by the market)
$DR.TO also looks good at current price
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1. new Strategic plan (2024-28) will be published at the end of June
-It will include multiple "actions"
2. Sellside coverage starting in June
3. They are still actively using Gartner to find out when to launch which product
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12% EBITDA-Margins my framework:
1. a decrease of Bench to c.5% (of direkt labour costs) resulting in a 0,9% increase in EBITDA
2. FX costs decreasing, resulting in a 1% increase in EBITDA (due to less appreciation of PLN/EUR,USD,GBP) ==> Not sure if this is realistic
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@EquityBrian
pretty bad haha. Bought for the wrong reasons and sold for the right ones (but far to late), but still sucks to see something double after selling. (I am/was not able to predict the behaviour / Cap allocation of the CEO) But got some great learnings from this mistake.
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Harvard published its second case study on $KSPI
Haven't read it yet but the first one was very insightful, and I plan to read it this weekend:
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Just had a few thoughts on IT-Services:
-IT services generally are a commodity business with a very strong underlying secular growth trend
-The main job of any IT-Services company is to match supply (employees) with demand (new contracts)
-> Goal of minimising the bench
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@Georg04762486
@K_einAktionaer7
@JonNeuscheler
In Japan werden oft die Cash Reserven nicht ausgeschüttet, da man nicht so sehr auf die Investoren fokussiert ist (auch bei Unternehmern mit Cash>EV)
Diese Reserven bleiben dann oft über lange Zeit bestehen
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@iam_chris42
Die ganze Thematik rund um schnellere Umsatz Transformation und sinkende Handelsumsätze hätte man schon früher an sprechen können. Außerdem hätte man das ganze Thema investieren in Security, Manged Cloud und AI besser beschreiben können (potential��)
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@LogicalThesis
Obviously it’s a big part of the equation but by far not all of it.
Just look into the insurance part and how they can be way more competitive vs other reinsurers for example, just due to being more patient and being able to invest float at a lot higher rates…
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@GrowthyValue
yes, I try to listen to the whole playlist each week. Its probably 50% regulars and 50% other shows. I have a very big playlist with loads of episodes I want to listen to some day, this is where I collect the "other shows".
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10. IT-Services is a 15-20% EBITDA Business whilst Software is around 40%
(NOTE: Im not sure how good the translation on this exact part was, so this might also be EBIT Margins and might also only be an anecdotal margin vs for the whole business)
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$D6H just posted decent Q1, Rev. up around 4% which is ok. Rev. growth was a bit low due to transformation of low Margin Rev.. I thought it was impressive is the EBIT-Margin of 9% + a bit of growth of EBITDA Margins, even though only 25% of costs (from inflation)
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Just started to read a Book on genghis khan, came across a very interesting Paragraph:
"At no single, crucial moment in his life did he suddenly acquire his genius... (It) derived not from epiphanic enlightenment or formal schooling but (a) persistent cycle of pragmatic learning,
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9. In FY22: c.350-400K loss due to one client (which turned profitable in FY23) for the project they needed capacity national => now they have some free capacity
9.1 This was a LT investments for them into a relationship with a very large retailer
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@Secrets4stocks
I think a large part of the problem is (at least when I researched it a few months ago) that the family owning the Majority of the stock doesn’t care about shareholders at all.
So the value might stay looked in forever.
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3. Investments into the UK partially offset by increasing efficiency and lower labour cost growth, resulting in a -0,5% decrease in EBITDA
I would love to receive any pushback on my assumptions
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@IggyOnInvesting
@LionheartInves1
Maybe 100+ hours is to much, but by Just reading all the annuals, the last 4 qs, the last 4 earnings calls, all Management interviews and some industry magazines and maybe talking to some industry experts, time spent on understanding a company can easily be around 50+ hours
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That’s some interesting news, KASPI usually starts out by creating products for themselves and then if feasible offers it to “outsiders”.
I guess this business unit, if ever, would start to be relevant in the far far future though. (not very relevant to overall thesis)
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$SCS.L A Furniture and Flooring Retailer in the UK Trading at EV=0, with positive FCF if adjusted for changes in NWC 8.
Thesis:
1. current macro Environment sucks and will probably get worse in 2023
2. Best Balance sheet in Sector + Marketshare of 9%(Nr.2 in Furniture Market)
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@IggyOnInvesting
Capital return, Fooled by randomness, The deals of warren buffet, expectation investing, competition demystified, I also really enjoy books such as: quality of earnings, finical shenanigans or Valuation (by McKinsey), which are more focused on the accounting side of things
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@wonderingbread1
@LukeWolgram
But don't forget that for growth companies the number will most often be too low.
It also highly depends on the business model.
Companies with high capitalised R&D, to keep product up to date might have hidden maintenance Capex in amortisation...
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@DailyCompoundng
Isn't that what everyone is saying since years now...
I like the China / HK valuations (not in my CoC so no holdings), but aren't there better opportunities then these industries with huge amounts of competition, innovation and regulation?
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A few days ago $SPR published an interview with its CEO Konrad Weiske (KW). (I accidentally already posted some of my unfinished summary a few days ago, so I thought it might make sense to upload a more comprehensive summary)
…
Some key insights/Quotes:
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