Fundasy
@FundasyInvestor
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Global GARP Investor | ERP Implementation Consultant | Engineering Grad I tweet about stocks. DMs open
Joined February 2020
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Pinned Tweet
$EVO $EVVTY: New Post!🤌Evolution Gaming: A Moat Analysis
In this post, I break down:
- The Online Gambling supply chain/tech stack
- Casino / B2B Supplier Dynamics
- Competitive Advantages
- Evolution Gaming IRR Assumptions
Link in my bio. Pinned on my Homepage🙏 enjoy!
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$POOL now at a 23x Trailing PE. This is the cheapest this stock has been since December 2018
Up 207% since then. One of the best compounders around
Of course... I'm biased, worked for a pool company for too long and saw the recurring costs up close
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$EVO CEO is going all out here. $100M SEK purchase ($9M USD or so)
Carlesund gjorde inköpet till en snittkurs om 1002,14 SEK, vilket ganska exakt innebär ett köp om 100 MSEK
$EVO
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NEW POST: Evolution Gaming Pitch
$EVO $EVO.ST $EVVTY
In this pitch:
- Link my previous “Moat Analysis”
- Update and Revise my Growth Drivers
- Provide an updated IRR Expectations with a Bull and Base case!
Link in reply below! Please like, retweet, or share if you enjoy🙏
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$POOL Corp: My Earned Secret
I included perspective on the pool industry, as someone who worked in the industry for a number of years, and why I own this company!
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$EVO.ST Just another day of owning a tech company growing faster than the Mag 7, has higher bottom line margins than Mastercard, and trades at a reasonable 21.5x FCF, with active buybacks
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(1/n)
$APPS People don't understand how large this SingleTap opportunity licensing with $FB / $MVRS is going to be
This will change the way billions of people are advertised to!
Here's a very short thread👇
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$EVO Evolution: "Pays out 50% of profits via dividends"
Cash Balance: "You think that will stop me?"
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$POOL All the pools added during the Housing Bubble are finally coming due for their remodel in the next 2-6 years
A very virtuous cycle for this distributor
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$EVO Plain and simple, one of the best businesses to ever exist
$EVO is up 7% this morning after a better than expected Q4 and an optimistic 2024 outlook 🃏
"We come into 2024-2025 with higher ambitions than ever" - CEO, Martin Carlesund
Q4 2023 summary:
Game Rounds +30%
Revenue +17%
*FX-neutral +25%
*Live Casino +21%
*RNG -4%
EBITDA +21%
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$APPS In this Newsletter, I tried to go over everything Digital Turbine. The main goal was to attempt to tell the story of the company's evolving business through their business model, track record, and financial analysis
Hope you enjoy!👇
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$KNSL Kinsale Q2 Release
✅ Diluted EPS increased 27% (25 LTM PE)
✅ Gross Written Premiums up 21% Y/Y
✅ Investment Income up 48% Y/Y
✅ Combined Ratio of 77.7%, Q2 '23 was 76.7%
What a team. What a company. Great results
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$EVO $EVVTY This is the cheapest that Evolution has ever traded on a Price/FCF basis
Honestly, I haven't been able to find many better public equity investments with a 10+ year time horizon
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$EVO Have never seen this math before but that's amazing! This is just the OpEx though, imagine also layering on:
- Fixed technology/streaming costs
- Heavy anti-cheating security
- Graphics for the game UI
- Training the dealer
- Handling extra regulations
$EVO Some thoughts about why it's hard to be a successful live casino provider.
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I just finished my updated $EVO Writeup for investors to show the opportunity here today at these prices!
I also have a $KNSL writeup IRR expectation writeup nearly finished but I'm co-publishing this content on another writer's platform so I have to wait
$EVO on Friday!
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$EVO This time the companies toast for sure. Really can't make much of a case for buying anything else here
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$EVO increases the number of max players in their game from 10k to 13k
-Fixed costs associated with the game
-Every additional user simply increases margins
This company is wild
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$UPST $APPS are probably the two most discounted mid-cap tech stocks in this market
Both have competitive positions and will grow top-line very rapidly, require very little capex, and can reinvest large amounts of capital at very high rates of return
Hold a position in both
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$EVO I have a thick buy list but Evolution Gaming at a 17 PE, returning all its capital, and set to pass up this increased tax rate this year… top of my list
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$TTD Really easy to make $139M in Adj EBITDA once you add back $125M of SBC
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Update on the actively managed portfolio and weights:
$EVO $EVVTY: 24.8% 🇸🇪
$ACIC: 15.1% 🇺🇸
$CANB: 12.7% 🇨🇦
$DNP.WA $DNOPY: 10.8% 🇵🇱
$KNSL: 10% 🇺🇸
$APR.WA: 9.4% 🇵🇱
$AEP.V $APEUF: 9.4% 🇨🇦
$SPR.WA: 6% 🇵🇱
$MELI: 1% 🇺🇾
Watchlist: $MAD.AX $TVK.TO $CSU.TO $ATD.TO $XPEL $4MS.WA
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Here's our stock article over Evolution Gaming! $EVO $EVVTY
This is a GARP with:
✅High revenue growth (~100%)
✅70% EBITDA margins
✅Tailwinds for next 10 years
✅Reasonable valuation (<50x LTM EBITDA)
If you enjoy this article, please like/retweet
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$EVO $EVVTY Evolution Gaming is one of the best public investment ideas on the market right now
> 4% earnings yield, 50% distributed via dividends
- Trailing 58% net income margins, will be hit by universal 15% EU Tax
- Trailing 28% rev growth after Covid highs
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It's been a while since I've revealed my current portfolio!
🇸🇪 Evolution: $EVO.ST
🇵🇱 Dino Polska $DNP.WA
🇵🇱 Auto Partner $APR.WA
🇨🇦 CanadaBis $CANB.V
🇨🇦 Alimentation Couche-Tard $ATD.TO
🇨🇦 Terravest Industries $TVK.TO
🇺🇸 Floor & Decor $FND
🇺🇸 Ulta $ULTA
🇺🇸 Atlantic Coastal $ACIC
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$ROKU
-Working on new original content
-Gaining market share internationally
-Working on targeting and new CTV features
$GOOG
-Trying to get their OS to work on CTV
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$EVO $EVVTY I like buying Evolution Gaming here. Tons of support below it from previous buyers (including myself here)
Record low valuation at 17 PE, 3% dividend yield, buyback program rolling at the same time.
Great diversification from the US / S&P500 in my opinion
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$EVO And we're back on the trendline post-ER
I think this is not a bad place to buy here. Lowest LTM valuation (PE = 18) on record as a Public Company
I think this is a great long-term position to be building right now. There are risks; they feel priced in.
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$EVO $EVVTY In the next few months this will be one of the easiest adds in the market
- Consistent reliable growth
- High margins
- Best in class management team
- High cash return to shareholders at a high growing yield
Will add more when its time and put out a blog post
$EVO $EVVTY Holders beware that this consolidation will continue. The downside is probably 10% more to the 1080 range or so 9% lower than today that corresponds to the bottom of this channel
That would be a 18.5x LTM PE that corresponds to the bottom valuation last September
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My goal for 2022 is to be opportunistic and finally start some positions in the "too obvious" pile
$CSU $GOOG $POOL $TMO $MSFT $COST
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NEW POST: Auto Partner $APR $APR.WA
This small-cap Polish auto part distributor has some unique qualities:
(1) Growing 20-30% per year
(2) Improving bottom-line
(3) Trading at an 11x PE
Here's my write up of Auto Partner!
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$KNSL Fantastic fantastic thread over the name! If you're on the fence about looking at the company, this is a great preview of why you should look further into the name
One of my largest positions and definitely analogous to early days of Progressive & GEICO
Gather 'round, fintwit... it's time to tell the story of the greatest wealth compounder you've never heard of.
This stock has returned 50% annually since its 2016 IPO, and more than doubled the total returns of world-dominating stocks like $AAPL, $GOOG, $MSFT, and $META.
Today,
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Purchased more Evolution Gaming today $EVO $EVVTY
I see the company continuing its growth this next year of 30%+ and with its next report coming up on July 21st, I see the valuation compressing further with it currently only up 20% from its lows last September
Long Evolution
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$CPRT In this Newsletter, I tried to give my typical high-level overview of the company, the company's unique competitive advantage, and the investment opportunity today!
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$RICK imagine interrupting a CEO and telling him how his business works
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$KNSL You all own these flashy tech companies. I own specialty insurance:
- EPS up 54% Y/Y
- Combined ratio of 72.1%, resulting in a 28% operating margin
- Net income increased 94% this fiscal year
Blowout 4Q
CC:
@GaliciaInvestor
@TheGarpInvestor
@SvnCapital
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$EVO $EVVTY Honestly, I think I might just keep buying Evolution Gaming
Has been left out of the rally but the largest iGaming distributor... keeps distributing more content each quarter
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$EVO Company still far off the drawdown from the peak but the trailing PE multiple has contracted from 95x to 23x
The narrative will shift eventually, probably around ATHs. One of my core holdings
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$EVO “The large legacy players will just in-house Live Casino. Why would they give that margin to Evolution??”
Because live-casino is hard. You’ll make more profits as a partner than a competitor
Caesars $CZR generates over 6 billion dollars annually from its casino operations
Yet, it teams up with $EVO for its Live Casino supply, instead of trying to in-source it
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New Post on December 23rd, 2022! Final Post of the Year
My Breakdown of Floor & Decor covers: The industry, the friction points, the business model, financials, and return expectations!
Hope you enjoy it!👍
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$EVO Am I doing this right?
$V operating activities.
This chart is absolutely ridiculous. It gives me the same sensation every quarterly review.
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The more I look at American company's valuations... the more I like $EVO
$TTD reported 39% revenue growth Y/Y with 30% net income margin, great company, >130x PE (+20%)
$EVO reported 100% revenue growth Y/Y with 57% net income margin, great company, <60x PE (-7%)
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$EVO $EVVTY Looks to be a pretty good time to add to this name
Good Technical and Fundamental setup with shareholder yields north of 5% today
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$EVO Stealing share from PlayTech when everyone was worried about the other way around
Q1 has shown signs of reacceleration. Think the stock’s yield is attractive here
💡 Exclusive: Evolution has agreed a deal with bet365 to provide it with its portfolio of live dealer games.
$EVO
#bet365
#livecasino
👉
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Koyfin's screener... is pretty fucking out of this world
The ability to create Total Revenue CAGR ranges over 1,3,5 year intervals is a fantastic ability to find low variance, high growth securities
Found 10 high quality names to research right off the bat
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$KNSL I hear a lot in regards to Kinsale that it "doesn't interest investors" or "is outside their area of competence"
Well, I DCA'd this entire channel indicated below, shouted from the rooftops, and not many investors cared
Up 17% today and it's multiple barely expanded
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NEW POST: Kinsale Built for Efficiency and Profitability
$KNSL In this post I dive deep into the company's competitive advantages, the E&S market as a whole, the Insurance Supply Chain, and diagnose why this Carrier will continue growing Market Share!
Link below!
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$EVO $EVVTY A US uplist would 2x the stock right off the bat from a valuation perspective
With a growing dividend, I suppose you don't *need* the stock to fly. You'd technically get better returns with dividends being reinvested at a higher rate
The more I look at American company's valuations... the more I like $EVO
$TTD reported 39% revenue growth Y/Y with 30% net income margin, great company, >130x PE (+20%)
$EVO reported 100% revenue growth Y/Y with 57% net income margin, great company, <60x PE (-7%)
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$EVO $EVVTY I purchased some more Evolution today
With a 21x trailing PE and 50% distribution of income via dividends -> 2.4% trailing dividend yield on purchase
Am I a dividend growth investor yet??
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$MSFT Was flat for 16 years after trading at an expensive 80x earnings & +30x Gross Profit
BUT
I'm sure companies like $NVDA will do just fine going forward at 165x earnings and 46x Gross Profit👍
Great businesses can be lousy investments if you pay too much for them 💰
It took Microsoft ~16 years to regain the dot com price levels 📊
Let's take a look at how to value a business 🧵📈
= THREAD =
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Poland: $SGN.WA $DNP.WA $APR.WA $LVC.WA
You’re welcome GARPs. 20-30% growers at 1/2 the American valuations with more shareholder friendly companies
I assumed there would be different names at the top of this list
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$EVO $EVVTY Evolution Gaming at valuation lows on trailing twelve month earnings (LTM 22.5x PE) from last September 2022
Stock price up a good 50% since then though. Will be purchasing more with my incremental deposits
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$EVO $EVVTY Only Evolution can put up 35% EPS growth against tough comps, trade at a 25x PE, and then trade down
Will use this time to continue to accumulate. North America and Asia putting up 65%+ revenue growth each with new studios opening each quarter
Long
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It took two and half years on my WordPress website to get 330 subscribers
Last July, I migrated over 270 e-mail addresses
After 3 years, only 6 months later, I’m celebrating 1000 subscribers and $650 in annual patronage
Thank you all. This one feels pretty sweet
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$KNSL Dawgs of a management team. The story isn't played out though...
- 2% market share
- Still building out new products/coverages
- Still scaling, expense ratio has another 200-300 bps of leverage I believe over long term
- Great long-term pricing/inflation dynamics
Kinsale is a 25 bagger in 8 years and is still growing 30% py...
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$DNP.WA $DNOPY Dino Polska with a valuation move to the second standard deviation that only occurs 5% of the time
I see a good statistical purchase price right now
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$EVO $EVVTY Still sitting around a 5% trailing shareholder yield
I'm not a gambling man but I'd bet multiple expansion is coming in the coming quarters. If not, earnings are growing fast and dividends are growing in-line
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$APPS I like how Digital Turbine casually announced that they were bringing their SingleTap product to 350M new devices yesterday
Just casual announcements with 350M devices... such freaking scale. The forward ROIC metrics are insane I imagine
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$HIMS Might one day be one of the greatest DTC companies to ever create a direct distribution channel to fix a value destroying industry for the consumer
People can focus on products. I focus on distribution
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What emerging companies have the physical ROIIC business models?
$POOL: New pool instillations near existing Sales Centers
$ODFL: LTL network density
$CPRT: Yard locations
What else y'all got? Emerging ideas being the key ones to identify
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NEW POST: Kinsale Capital Q1 Review and IRR Expectations $KNSL
In this article:
- Q1 Highlights
- Financial & Operational Updates
- IRR Expectations where I break down a baseline path to 14% IRRs over the next decade
Hope you enjoy! Link in thread below👇
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$EVO This is a material de-risk in the Evolution Gaming thesis. Everyone knew the probability was low but it wasn't zero
Eftersom den huvudsakliga risken i igamingbolag är regleringar och deras efterlevnad har risken tveklöst minskat i $EVO när en mer än två år lång utredning helt rentvår bolaget från misstankar om att försöka kringgå regleringar och embargon mot stater.
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$EVO $EVVTY Purchased some more Evolution Gaming stock at $95.60 USD a share
Already a large position but its at back up the truck levels and I intend to take advantage of this clear adding opportunity
$EVO $EVVTY Broke through the support from 2020 Covid uptrend. Did not expect that to be honest
PE Ratio continuing to compress downwards. Now sitting at a 17 PE (~6% shareholder yield)
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$DNP.WA I actually did go back and look at Walmart's financials from the 70s back a few months ago and the similarities between what Dino Polska is doing out in Eastern Europe and what Walmart did in small town America are eerily similar... down to the financials and growth rates
Dino $DNP.WA is really like buying Walmart in it's earlier days.
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$KNSL Mgmt "To be a compounder of wealth, we need to have above mid-teens ROE"
Mission Accomplished for now, I would say
Things you love to see as a shareholder, courtesy of the $KNSL conference call.
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$EVO Been calling this trend out for a minute. Revenue has reaccelerated in Q1 this year from the trends I've been seeing. This stock is going to rip over the next bit.
Planning on adding at the bottom of this channel
$EVO $EVVTY Holders beware that this consolidation will continue. The downside is probably 10% more to the 1080 range or so 9% lower than today that corresponds to the bottom of this channel
That would be a 18.5x LTM PE that corresponds to the bottom valuation last September
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$EVO North America is movinggg
🎲Our exciting take on the ancient dice game is LIVE in New Jersey!
🙌 With random multipliers up to 1000x and multiple betting options, Super Sic Bo is fun for all!
#Evolution
#LiveCasino
#iGaming
21+ | If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, please call 1-800-GAMBLER
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My Global Microcaps that I'm watching:
- All profitable last quarter
- All growing 30%+
Hopefully some of these are of interest
$CANB.V $4MS.WA $SED.WA $SUN.WA $OILS.V $PNT.WA $SNX.WA
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$KNSL Been a good week for my adds to Kinsale. From May to before the ER, I was adding aggressively due to the price dislocation
Feels good when they actually work out
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$EVO Unpopular opinion but Evolution’s buyback policy hasn’t been that bad in my opinion
Most of the time the stock has traded at high multiples and they did turn it on when they were asked to
Dividends should be buybacks though. RNG should’ve been buybacks too
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$EVO That's what I love about these European compounders, man. EPS goes up, they stay the same price.
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I will keep adding to Evolution $EVO $EVVTY as the Euro drops in comparison to the USD
Since Dec 2nd, 2021
$EVO (Swedish listed): Up 1%
$EVVTY (OTC): Down 14%
Euro to USD: Down 14%
FCF/Share (in SEK): +51%
Buy at a funeral, sell at a wedding
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Trimmed $POOL to a 8% position
Going to reinvest new cash plus the trimmed capital into a new position tomorrow
Write-up coming soon for Business Breakdown on the new holding
Can also do a write-up on the portfolio mgmt methodology if anyone would be interested too
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$ROKU I am officially out
Might write a blog post about the mistakes and lessons learned on this one
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$KNSL +13%. Nice results, now everyone can forget about this until next quarter
Fintwit finds this ticker too boring
$KNSL Kinsale Q2 Release
✅ Diluted EPS increased 27% (25 LTM PE)
✅ Gross Written Premiums up 21% Y/Y
✅ Investment Income up 48% Y/Y
✅ Combined Ratio of 77.7%, Q2 '23 was 76.7%
What a team. What a company. Great results
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New Position: Today, I took a full core position in Spyrosoft $SPR.WA, a global Polish IT Consulting firm
⚪️ High ROE (30%+)
⚪️ Founded in 2016 and already $120M USD Mkcp
⚪️ Scalable "Platform" Corporate Structure with quality incentive structure
⚪️ Boring Industry taking MS
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Charlie Munger mentioning $FND running a Costco $COST model 🥲
+4.3% Today
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Portfolio Update!
📱 $APPS OEM/Carrier Android partner
✨ $CSU $CNSWF VMS Serial Acquirer
🚗 $CPRT NIMBY Utility
💰 $EVO $EVVTY Live Casino Rails
📈 $MSFT Efficient growth machine
🚛 $ODFL LTL beast
🏊♂️ $POOL Best in class distributor
Trying to own the best!
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$EVO Chart of the Day!
Growing faster and much much cheaper today! 20x trailing PE compared to 28+ for the rest of the large caps
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$EVO big news with Evolution Gaming recently (1) being cleared of any and all wrong doing by New Jersey Gaming and (2) partnering with Caesars
I think we have one more flush down to 1100-1200 SEK range before May ER. Sky is the limit after that
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$KNSL Public PSA
Many many smart investors within my network are loading up on this 30%+ drawdown from ATH on Kinsale Capital
Great discounted price. Fantastic quality company
Podcasts are available on the name
I have a writeup linked in my bio
Worth the time!
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$EVO Now I swear... can you seriously look at this and tell me that all TA is bullshit??
What is the coincidence?? Even if it's a self fulfilling prophecy... it can work!
$EVO $EVVTY Holders beware that this consolidation will continue. The downside is probably 10% more to the 1080 range or so 9% lower than today that corresponds to the bottom of this channel
That would be a 18.5x LTM PE that corresponds to the bottom valuation last September
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$CPRT Long thesis
$BYD.TO down 10% this morning after a disappointing quarter. Seems mgmt was also caught off guard. Anecdotally i've been hearing that many accidents these days are leading to total write offs, even if they aren't that bad. Vehicles have become a lot more complex, with so many
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$APPS Big negative FCF quarter in image 1 was acquiring 3 companies to transform the business
25x LTM FCF today. After next quarter will be trading at 11x LTM FCF
On track for 65-75% conversion of EBITDA to FCF
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$EVO Up 5% after the CEO confirmed his purchase
Interesting sentiment shift on the stock
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Evolution $EVO $EVVTY is down another 5% today
This brings the current yield up to: .58%
The company pays out 50% of income to dividends. Therefore, next year's yield is now around 1%
For a company growing earnings 40-50% for the next 3-5 years
Act accordingly👍
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$EVO I will be posting my Evolution Gaming article tomorrow! Thank you everyone for waiting
Looking forward to this one! Think it will be a thorough breakdown for anyone looking to get primed on the name
$EVO Chart of the Day!
Growing faster and much much cheaper today! 20x trailing PE compared to 28+ for the rest of the large caps
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$CPRT Jay Adair, as a CEO, might have the most successfully timed buybacks history
✅2008-2009
✅2011-2013
✅2015-2017
✅2019-2020
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$UPST genuinely might print $330M in revenue, $82M FCF, and used $100-200M in buybacks during the quarter
Stock might pop 50%+ on Earnings. Last ER it popped to $150, sold off in the coming weeks
If it hits $330M, it'll be around 6.5x P/S, ~35x FCF, ~41x GAAP PE fully diluted🫢
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$EVO $EVVTY Evolution Gaming has been on a tear since October. Congrats to all the purchasers in 2022! Still reasonable valuation here and no sign of slowing growth yet
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$SDI Looks like a fantastic compounder bro stock. I apologize for not giving it as much attention as I should've to everyone that's recommended it
◻️ Crazy bombastic revenue growth
◻️ Margin growth on EBIT/Net income
◻️ Compressing valuation on even stock price🤫
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I'd say that Fundasy Investor has been doing well as a side-project to my W2. Very pleased with the growth and a big thank you to everyone that's been along with me on this journey
Here's to 3 and then maybe 5k subs in the year ahead!
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$DNP.WA Been moving funds around to continue purchasing more Dino Polska around this < 30x PE
Last time it was around this price in 2019, it turned out to do well from there
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Nothing is wrong with $ADYEY $ADYEN. They're doing what they've always said they would do
Investors just paid an absolute ridiculous price over the past few years
Valuation does matter in the end and that was all trend/momentum trading
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$APPS numbers finally updated on Morningstar. Been waiting to post this view!
Since the end of 2019...
✅ Revenue up 620%
✅ Gross Margins up 12%
✅ Operating Margins increasing
✅ Massive investments in 2020-2021
Just crazy business model
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$EVO $EVVTY continues to impress me with the ability for their business model to scale
-Increasing revenue, 35%+ cagr
-Decreasing Capex, sub 5%
-Distributing 50% of earnings via dividends
This combination shouldn't be allowed. Basically cheat codes
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$EVO $EVVTY Big news coming out daily it seems like
-Connecticut Studio gone live. Fandual/DraftKings Live from Day 1
-Puru looking legalize iGaming, new expansion
-Evolution became first regulated online slots provider in S. Africa, w/ alliance Supabets
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$EVO
Evolution and
@FanaticsBook_PB
entered into a new content partnership agreement.
Fanatics Casino players now have access to an extensive library of award-winning Evolution titles and an exciting line-up of online slots.
21+ — Please gamble responsibly.
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$EVO Huge reversal👀
Malta🇲🇹 delays implementing the global minimum tax rate for 6 years.
That's possibly an 8% earnings boost and an extra cumulative 700+ million Euros in $EVO shareholders' pockets!
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$EVO I own a ton
$EVO Evolution AB is trading at its lowest forward PE and EV/EBIT in a decade.
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