Kyle Grieve
@IrrationalMrkts
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Host of We Study Billionaires podcast | Empowering retail investors to compound wealth with stocks | '20-'23: 12% Compound Annual Gain
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Joined April 2020
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Warren Buffett famously said, "The difference between successful people and really successful people is that really successful people say no to almost everything."
Here are Buffett's 8 easily identifiable red flags to say "no" to:
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In 2011, Warren Buffett hailed chapter 12 of John Maynard Keynes's The General Theory as one of the most important chapters ever written on investing.
He said reading this chapter means "you don't need to read anything else & you can turn off your TV."
Here are 9 takeaways ⤵️
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Anthony Bolton has one of the most legendary track records of all time:
His fund compounded at 19.5% annually over 28 years!
Here are 27 simple keys to his success:
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The most legendary investor of all time: Warren Buffett
In 1987, Warren wrote a letter to Berkshire shareholders covering a variety of vital long-term investing topics.
In just 16 paragraphs he put together a masterclass in business & investing.
Here's a breakdown of each one:
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One of the most impressive runs a CEO has ever had:
Roberto Goizueta.
He took Coca-Cola's market cap from $4 billion to $156 billion, a 25.4% compound annual growth rate.
Here are 6 lessons from his shareholder letters (to make you a better investor and business person):
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One of the most legendary thinkers of all time: Charlie Munger
In 1995, Charlie gave a lecture at Harvard called "The Psychology of Human Misjudgement."
In 76 minutes he put together a masterclass on human psychology.
Here's how to recognize misjudgments that impact investing:
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The best investor you've never heard of:
Shelby Davis.
At 38 he'd invested $50k, by the time he passed away at 85, he'd amassed a $900 million dollar fortune.
His system was simple, here're the key lessons:
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Warren Buffett proudly admits "The beauty of stocks is they... sell at silly prices from time to time. That’s how Charlie and I have gotten rich. ... Ben Graham writes about it in Chapter 8 of the Intelligent Investor."
Here are 14 lessons from Ch. 8 of The Intelligent Investor
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The most legendary investor of all time: Warren Buffett
In 1998, Warren gave a lecture to students at the University Of Florida discussing wealth, thinking, and investing.
In 84 minutes he put together a masterclass on building wealth.
Here's a breakdown of the key points:
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Warren Buffett's most profitable skill:
Identifying undervalued stocks with long-term potential.
99% of people lack this skill because nobody showed them how to develop it.
Here are 5 keys to building this skill for yourself (and improving profits as a result):
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In 2011, Warren Buffett named 2 books that if mastered would mean:
"You don't need to read anything else & you can turn off your TV."
Here is what you need to know from the 2 books that helped shape Warren into the investor he is today ⬇️
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I use a few metrics to eliminate 98% of stocks.
Trailing growth hurdles of:
Revenue 12%
Net Income 15%
Total Debt <4x FCF
Free Cash Flow 12%
Earnings Per Share 12%
Shares Outstanding =<5%
Return on Invested Capital 15%
Here are 5 qualifying global businesses:
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Warren Buffett once said:
"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beats the guy with 130 IQ."
But most people take the un-winnable route of trying to outsmart the market
Here are 7 winning keys to simplify investing:
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25 Wealth lessons every father must teach their child.
(You'll want to bookmark these for future reference)
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Chris Mayer is well known for analyzing 100-baggers.
Recently, he was asked to name the less popular characteristics of finding stocks that can 10x-100x your money.
I can't stop thinking about these 5 crucial ideas he discussed.
Here’s a breakdown of each one:
🧵👇
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Here are the metrics I use to eliminate 98% of stocks.
Growth hurdles of:
Revenue 12%
Net Income 15%
Total Debt <4x FCF
Free Cash Flow 12%
Earnings Per Share 12%
Shares Outstanding =<5%
Return on Invested Capital 15%
Here's a business that meets these criteria:
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The most legendary investing thinker of all time: Charlie Munger.
He once said: "The big money is not in the buying and the selling, but in the waiting."
But most people find waiting excruciatingly hard.
So here are 4 skills Munger developed while waiting:
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I own 10 stocks.
Here is why I own each one (in 4 points and a visual):
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Warren Buffet says reading chapter 12 of Keynes "The General Theory" allows the investor to :
Not "read anything else and you can turn off your tv."
Here are my takeaways from chapter 12 of General Theory
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It's nearly impossible for retail investors to outperform Wall Street.
This is what I thought about investing (for years) before reading Peter Lynch.
But after spending 50 hours researching his frameworks, I broke his playbook down.
Use these 4 keys to gain your advantage:
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The most popular part of investing:
Finding potential stocks to invest in.
But most beginners research stocks all wrong.
Here's how to catapult your stock-picking abilities in 5 dead-simple steps:
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7 simple metrics that eliminate 98% of stocks:
Growth In:
• Revenue 12-15%
• Net Income 15%
• Total Debt 2-4x FCF
• Free Cash Flow; 12-15%
• Shares Outstanding < 5%
• Earnings Per Share 12-15%
• Return on Invested Capital 15%
Simple to find, hard to implement.
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Twitter offers you the ability to earn a 2-year (and $93,000 dollar) MBA...
In a fraction of the time and for a $93k discount.
But 99.8% miss out on this irresistible offer.
Here are the 8 best threads that will accelerate your investing in 2023:
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Great investors to research if you want to build wealth:
• Benjamin Graham - Margin of Safety
• Howard Marks - Risk Management
• Mohnish Pabrai - Asymmetry
• Warren Buffett - Compounding
• Charlie Munger - Rationality
• Nick Sleep - Quality
• Peter Lynch - DD
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I've spent hundreds of hours researching the greatest investors of all time.
Here are 7 timeless lessons that will transform how you think about investing:
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Warren Buffett once said:
"We've never lost that much money on any one investment"
And luckily, avoiding capital destruction is a skill
But most people have never tried to learn – because no one showed them where to start
Here are 4 keys to help you compound for decades:
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YouTube offers you the ability to earn a 2-year (and $93,000 dollar) MBA...
In a fraction of the time and a $0 dollar price tag.
But 98.8% miss out on this irresistible offer.
Here are the 7 best videos that will transform your investing results in 2023:
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Warren Buffett said:
“If I were running $50, $100, $200 million I would have 80% in five positions with 25% for the largest. In 1964 I found a position I was willing to go heavier into, up to 40%. I told Investors....
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A less well-known characteristic of compounding is that we can make a mistake 50% of the time and still be very successful.
Let me explain using a great example Gautam Baid shared with us:
"Compounding is convex on the upside and concave on the downside. Positive asymmetry. Few
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5 must-read annual reports:
1. Constellation Software
2. Berkshire Hathaway
3. Fairfax Financial
4. Coca-Cola
5. Amazon
You WILL come away smarter after reading these.
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Warren Buffett simplifies investing like no other.
In 2000, at the Berkshire Annual, he said:
"The question is how much you get back, when you expect to get it back, and how sure you are that you’ll get it back... and what interest rates are."
Here's a breakdown of the ideas:
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The most legendary investor of all time: Warren Buffett
In 2023, Warren described the keys to his achievements despite the majority of his decisions being "no better than so-so."
In just 3 paragraphs he gave a masterclass on investing success.
Here's a breakdown of the ideas:
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Charlie Munger is worth $2.5 billion dollars.
He said: "Most... people who've made a lot of money have done so in high-quality businesses."
Here are 19 Charlie Munger quotes on the importance of quality investing that will enhance your wealth-creating abilities.
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Pulak Prasad has soundly beat the majority of the investing competition since 2007, generating 19.1% returns annually.
His high-quality portfolio is full of multi-baggers.
Here's his dead-simple 3-step framework for investing:
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The best businessman you've never heard of:
Mark Leonard.
He created $57 billion dollars of value in only 17 years for Constellation Software Inc, shareholders...
Without issuing equity.
Steal these 7 business pillars to enhance your business and investing skills:
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Warren Buffett exclaimed that Chapter 20 of Ben Graham's The Intelligent Investor had a massive impact on his life.
Regarding that chapter, he said, "You don't need to read anything else & you can turn off your TV."
Here are 9 keys from that chapter that will make you wealthy:
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1 website I use that I rarely see mentioned is
For the price of $0.00 you get:
- 30+ Years of financial statements
- 37,000 companies (not the greatest for small caps)
- Excellent Summaries with data like ROIC, FCF/share, Net Margins
I highly recommend
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I stopped wasting time on low-quality stocks using these growth CAGRs:
Revenue 12%
Net Income 15%
Free Cash Flow 12%
Earnings Per Share 12%
Shares Outstanding =<5%
Add these:
Total Debt/FCF <4x
Return on Invested Capital >15%
The name of the game is elimination.
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Youtube has more than 114,000,000 channels.
Here are 7 of the TOP investing videos from one channel that will teach you how to build wealth faster than an MBA:
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Warren Buffett once said:
“The most important thing to do if you find yourself in a hole is to stop digging.”
But most investors struggle to understand when an investment is no longer viable.
Here are 3 dead-simple reasons to exit an investment:
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A short summary of 6 metrics I track to measure portfolio performance.
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6 Performance Metrics I Use To Measure Portfolio Performance (with 0 emphases on stock price) As A Long-Term Investor:
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Warren Buffett's career was built on the back of a few incredible decisions.
Without them, he'd just be another average CEO nobody knows.
Here are 3 stock decisions that helped carry his career (and the key reasons why he picked them that'll make you money):
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Warren Buffett said chapter 8 + 20 of the intelligent investor has been a bedrock of his investing for the past 60 years.
He also suggests reading and rereading Benjamin Graham's book when the market has been strong or weak.
Let's dive into key takeaways from chapter 20!
🧵
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Anatomy of a 100-bagger in a very quick amount of time. $HD from 82’ to 93’. Really shows how earnings CAGR equals stock price CAGR over long time periods. 45.76% earnings growth and 52.64% stock price appreciation.
@ValueStockGeek
@chriswmayer
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I use 7 simple metrics to say "no" to 99% of stocks from my investable universe:
• Revenue
• Net Income
• Total Debt/FCF
• Free Cash Flow
• Earnings Per Share
• Shares outstanding
• Return On Invested Capital
Here are my hurdle rates and why I use them:
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RIP Legend.
Charlie is someone I've thought about almost daily for the past 4 years.
Even though he's gone, his lessons will live on in innumerable pieces of wisdom he's taught me.
I'm willing to bet I'll continue learning from him for the rest of my life. That's a legacy very
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Today, Warren Buffett is worth $120.3 billion dollars
His success has come from understanding what makes a wonderful business
He categorizes businesses into 3 simple buckets
Here's a breakdown of each (and why you only need to focus on one to become financially independent):
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Buffett made >$23 billion on his Coca-Cola investment.
Early returns from 88' to 98' returned $1.29 billion into $13.4 billion.
A 26.3% CAGR
Here's how he analyzed $KO quantitatively (and how you can use this method to find your next great investment).
🧵
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A valuable stock is one that quickly increases in price.
This was what I believed, before learning the concept of a compounding engine.
After spending 9 months trying to figure out the commonalities, I distilled them into 3 parts.
Here is what to look for to find compounders:
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Legendary value investor Lou Simpson invested at a compound annual growth rate of 20.3%.
He beat the S&P 500 Index in 18 out of 25 years.
Here are 8 keys to his success:
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7 simple metrics to eliminate 99% of stocks:
Growth In
Revenue > 12-15%
Net Income> 15%
Earnings Per Share >12-15%
Free Cash Flow > 12-15%
Shares Outstanding < 5%
Return on Invested Capital >15%
Total Debt < 2-4x FCF
Here 6 companies that meet these criteria:
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The best podcasts to learn about value investing:
• Invested -
@Rule1_Investing
• Chai With Pabrai -
@MohnishPabrai
• The Memo -
@HowardMarksBook
• Richer Wiser Happier -
@WilliamGreen72
- Investing By The Books -
@IB_Redeye
Ignore everything else.
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99% of stock pickers compare stocks using a valuation multiple like price-to-earnings ratios.
But this metric overlooks something vital:
The creation of shareholder value
Here's how to identify if an investment is creating value (or destroying it) ⤵️
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Here are the metrics I use to eliminate 98% of stocks.
Compound annual growth rates of:
Revenue 12%
Net Income 15%
Free Cash Flow 12%
Earnings Per Share 12%
ROIC >15%
Total Debt <4x FCF
Shares Outstanding =<5%
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Here are the metrics I use to eliminate 98% of stocks.
Growth hurdles of:
Revenue 15%
Net Income 15%
Total Debt <4x FCF
Free Cash Flow 15%
Earnings Per Share 15%
Shares Outstanding =<5%
Return on Invested Capital = 15%
Here's a business that meets these criteria:
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In 1996, eccentric billionaire Charlie Munger said
" I have assimilated various ultra-simple general notions that I find helpful in
solving problems."
Unleash your problem-solving potential with these 5 key notions:
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We project existing situations into long-term expectations.
This is why during the best of times, prices get bid up.
And during the worst of times, prices get sold down.
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Getting two 100-baggers is impossible.
This was what I thought until I learned that Chuck Akre owns 2 in his investing career.
He attributes this success to his three-legged stool mental model.
Here's how to use the model is and the stocks that have made him rich:
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If you're looking to research an incredible company have a look at Evolution AB.
Let's dig into 10 interesting points on this company that make it super high quality.
🧵
$EVO $EVO.ST $EVVTY
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In 1977, investment legend billionaire Charlie Munger made his career's most significant investing mistake.
He passed on one decision that would've made him an additional $7.25 billion today.
The reason for this mistake?
A lack of conviction.
Here's the story and key lesson:
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Show me a business with 5-year CAGRs of:
Revenue 54.5%
Net Income 74.6%
Free Cash Flow 82.5%
Earnings Per Share 68%
With ~4% dilution CAGR.
Evolution Ab is one hell of a business.
$EVO.ST $EVVTY $EVO
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Charlie Munger is one of the most intelligent people I've come across.
He once said: "Knowing what you don't know is much more useful in life and business than being brilliant."
Here's a 3-step framework to understand your circle of competence (and profit from it):
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One of the most legendary thinkers of all time: Charlie Munger
In 2009, Charlie was interviewed by the BBC.
In one 63 seconds clip he unveiled his path to riches with stocks:
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10 high-quality multi-baggers I find interesting:
• Alimentation Couche-Tard
• Constellation Software
• Dino Polska
• Evolution
• Teqnion
• Hermes
• Copart
• LIFCO
• LVMH
• Heico
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Warren Buffett calls it "By far the best book on investing ever written."
The book?
The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham.
Here's a breakdown of Graham's proven concepts that will guide you to investment nirvana:
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First the two books:
1. The Intelligent Investor (Chapters 8 and 20)
2. The General Theory (Chapter 12)
Now that we have that out of the way, let's start with arguable the most important point that Buffett learned...
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Name ONE stock under $1 billion in market cap with a widening moat.
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Why Charlie Munger Think Investing In Quality Companies Will Make You Rich
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Finding 100-Baggers 101
Over the past 3 years, I've spent hundreds of hours trying to reverse engineer the attributes of companies that can 100x your money.
Here are 7 critical characteristics to look for on your hunt
🧵👇🏽
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Shelby Davis compounded capital at 23% for 47 years.
In 2003 a great biography came out, which extensively discussed his simple strategy.
The 3 biggest lessons from the book will help you generate higher returns and reduce risk.
Here’s a breakdown of each one: 🧵👇
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Stocks that 10x your money in a decade or less are the dream of all investors.
But they are hard to identify before their epic runs upwards.
So I reached out to
@dede_eyesan
who wrote THE book on just this topic... Global Outperformers: A decade study of the top performing
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Looking to build your Topicus knowledge base? I cover the following:
- Growth Opportunities
- Management
- Industry
- Competitive Position
- Competitive Advantage
$TOI.V $TOITF
A 🧵
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7 High-Quality Canadian Businesses:
1. Brookfield Asset Management $BAM
2. Constellation Software Inc. $CSU.TO
3. Alimentation Couche Tard $ATD.TO
4. Atlas Engineered Products $AEP.V
5. Lumine Group $LMN.V
6. $TOI.V
7. Aritzia $ATZ.TO
Who else?
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Warren Buffett is the GOAT of investing.
And his least discussed skill is...
Conviction in Berkshire Hathaway.
He's steadily held through 3 brutal 50%+ drawdowns.
Here's how he stays calm during corrections (and how you can too):
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Warren Buffett is best known for making a few big bets.
In 1998, he put together a masterclass on concentrated portfolios at Florida Business School.
These 5 lessons will change the way you view concentration and its benefits.
Here’s a breakdown of each one:
🧵👇
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In 2020, I realized I was chasing too many investment opportunities.
So I decided to use 5 simple filters that would eliminate >90% of public companies from my list of investable companies.
Here's 5 analytical tools I use to help me easily remove opportunities.
🧵👇
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Nick Sleep turned $1 dollar of investor's money into $10.21 in only 14 years.
In 2021 he released his partnership letters, which contain a masterclass on destination analysis, one of his key thinking tools.
These 5 tips will change the way you think about investing:
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Company analysis is an art, not a science.
Unfortunately, there is no formal education on this.
For the past 6 years, I have been making improvements in this exact area.
Here are 5 pieces of advice that will help you improve your analysis to find great companies.
🧵👇
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The difference between owning a public and private business.
You should imagine your ownership of stocks as owning a private business.
You'll focus on the right things, and stop paying attention to irrelevant events.
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Jeff Bezos said:
"It's important to have a significant portion of your net worth in your own company's stock."
But most investors don't know why this is so important.
Here are crucial questions to ask to ensure management is aligned with shareholders:
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@creation247
Compare that to inflation in the 70's and 80's and I think you'll find we are doing fine.
It's all relative to where your data starts.
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I spoke to a millionaire who turned one $10k stock investment into over $500k.
• No trading
• No trimming
• No panic selling
Inactivity is powerful stuff.
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Let's talk about one of the most boring businesses you've never heard of Atlas Engineered Products:
10yr Rev CAGR: 35%
10yr Net Income CAGR: 41.52%
EPS 2020: $0.00 LTM: $0.08
ROIC: 18%
$AEP.V $APEUF
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7 US Small Cap Stocks with 20% ROE + 15% 5-Year FCF Growth
1. Caleres $CAL
2. Victoria's Secret & Co $VSCO
3. Winnebago Industries $WGO
4. Build-A-Bear Workshop $BBW
5. Camping World Holdings $CWH
6. MasterCraft Boat Holdings $MCFT
7. Dave & Buster's Entertainment $PLAY
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Aritzia's share price has been beaten to smithereens lately...
And I just took my position from 3% to 10%.
Here's why I think the market is dead-wrong on this one:
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The GOAT of investing: Warren Buffett
In 1987, Buffett wrote one of his most potent letters to Berkshire shareholders.
And in just 16 paragraphs, he wrote a masterclass on business & Investing.
Here's a breakdown of his key points:
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In 1984 Warren Buffett said "Market prices are frequently nonsensical."
But most people have problems holding investments in the midst of senseless prices.
Here are 3 Buffett approved business metrics to track performance (when the market is inefficient):
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Buffett said, "The difference between successful people and really successful people is that really successful people say no to almost everything."
More focus, less distractions.
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TL;DR - 8 Warren Buffett approved investing red flags:
1. No moat
2. Erratic profits
3 No pricing power
4. Low profit margins
5. Low returns on equity
6. Highly competitive industry
7. Excess production capacity
8. Too much reliance on good management
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Making 1,000% on a stock in 10 years is no small feat.
And yet,
@dede_eyesan
identified 446 of them in his 2012-2022 study.
Here are 4 surprising lessons you can instantly use to find your next 10-bagger
🧵
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5 Businesses I don't own (which I will probably regret in 10 years)
1. Copart $CPRT
2. Lifco Ab $LIFCO-B
3. Constellation Software Inc $CSU.TO
4. Kelly Partners Group $KPG.ASX
5. OTC Markets $OTCM
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The market looks expensive, at 25 times earnings...
But this applies when looking only at certain segments.
The market is HEAVILY concentrated into the magnificent seven, which are driving much of the gains.
But what about other areas of the market trading at trough prices ⤵️
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The poor never start investing because the stock market gives them anxiety.
The wealthy never stop investing because they know the stock market will give them security.
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One of the greatest minds of our time, Charlie Munger passed away.
He said “All intelligent investing is value investing, acquiring more than you are paying for. You must value the business in order to value the stock.”
Here are 3 simple ways to invest intelligently:
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3 years ago, my investing track record was a story of painful losses.
Now, I'm compounding my money at market-beating returns.
And I learned everything I needed to know from a few very important books.
Here are 8 great books that will transform your investing skills:
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My current holdings and concentration levels:
Aritzia $ATZ.TO
Atlas Engineered Products $AEP.V
Biorem $BRM.V
CanadaBis Capital $CANB.V
Dino Polska $DNP.WA
Evolution $EVVTY
Teqnion $TEQ.ST
Thermal Energy International $TMG.V
Topicus $TOI.V
Zedcor $ZDC.V
Cash
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