Howard Marks
@HowardMarksBook
Followers
174K
Following
238
Media
47
Statuses
401
Co-Chairman & Co-Founder of @Oaktree. Author of #MasteringTheMarketCycle. This account is run by Howard’s team. Howard’s tweets will be signed -HM
New York, NY
Joined May 2018
There are a lot of things beyond our control. I wrote #MasteringTheMarketCycle to help you get the odds on your side and make the most out of your investment. Thanks to all for the support. I look forward to hearing your thoughts. Learn more at –HM
198
192
1K
.@WarrenBuffett once said, “What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end.” This tells you 80% of what you have to know about #MarketCycles and their impact. I consider this the number-one piece of #investment wisdom. –HM.
19
433
1K
Once an asset has doubled or tripled in price, many people feel stupid and are envious of those who’ve profited. My favorite quote on this subject is from Charles Kindleberger, “There is nothing as disturbing to one’s well-being and judgment as to see a friend get rich.” –HM.
26
255
1K
There are three ingredients for success – aggressiveness, timing and skill. If you show enough aggressiveness at the right time, you don’t need that much skill. #MasteringTheMarketCycle.
17
155
545
In late 2008/early 2009, an investor needed only two things to make a lot of money: money to invest and the nerve to invest it. If he had those two things, he made a lot of money in the years that followed. #MasteringTheMarketCycle.
12
100
441
Hello. I am excited to launch my first foray into social media with my forthcoming book, #MasteringTheMarketCycle. Check back often to learn more about how to understand, track and react to the ups and downs of market cycles. I look forward to your thoughts. -HM.
36
74
358
Always try to understand the implications of what’s going on around us. When others are recklessly confident and buying aggressively, we should be highly cautious; when others are frightened into inaction or panicked selling, we should become aggressive. #MasteringTheMarketCycle.
9
76
283
People who are successful run the risk of overlooking the fact they were lucky, or that they had help from others. In #investing, #success teaches people that making money is easy, and that they don’t have to worry about risk – two dangerous lessons. #MasteringTheMarketCycle
9
97
287
#Investment success is hard to replicate because it can be cyclical rather than serial. One success may make a second one less probable. As Henry Kaufman put it, “There are two kinds of people who lose a lot of money: those who know nothing and those who know everything.” –HM.
2
83
304
Do you ever wonder why the U.S. economy doesn’t just grow at 2% or why the stock market doesn't return 10% every year? In my view, the main reason for the cyclicality is the involvement of people. Here's why: #MasteringTheMarketCycle.
18
71
233
Thanks for having me on your show, @tferriss. I very much enjoyed our discussion on understanding market cycles, the stages of a bull market, bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and more. Thanks again.
NEW podcast episode is up: "Howard Marks (@HowardMarksBook) — How to Master Market Cycles" Please enjoy! . Listen to the interview here:
10
23
261
People’s decisions have great influence on economic, business and market cycles. In fact, economies, business and markets consist of nothing but transactions between people. And truthfully, people don't make their decisions scientifically. #MasteringTheMarketCycle.
7
55
254
Thanks @jasonzweigwsj for discussing my new book, #MasteringTheMarketCycle—most notably I appreciate your thorough analysis of my thinking around market cycles. I'm excited for the book's release and look forward to everyone's thoughts. @WSJ.
5
62
238
People often act as if companies that are doing well will do so forever, and investments that are outperforming will outperform forever and vice versa. Instead, it’s the opposite that is more likely to be true. Learn more in #MasteringTheMarketCycle at
4
64
249
Thanks to everyone for their generous support of my, now bestselling, book, #MasteringTheMarketCycle. I am honored to be on the @nytimes and @usatoday bestseller lists. With much gratitude, –HM.
6
14
244
Professor Elroy Dimson said, “Risk means more things can happen than will happen.” For each event in #economics, if only one predictable thing could happen, there would be no uncertainty or risk. But as we know in life and in #investing, uncertainty and risk are inescapable. –HM.
3
81
238
Risk is the likelihood of permanent capital loss. Opportunity risk is the likelihood of missing out on potential gains. Put together you'll see that risk is the possibility of things not going the way you want. #MasteringTheMarketCycle
4
79
224
It’s not what you buy that determines your results, it’s what you pay for it. And what you pay – the security’s price and its relationship to intrinsic value – is determined by investor psychology and the resulting behavior. #MasteringTheMarketCycle #Investing
8
75
215
Since the greatest bargains are usually found among things that are undiscovered or disrespected, to be successful an investor has to have enough confidence in his judgment. #MasteringTheMarketCycle #Investing.
1
57
208
If the market collapse of 2008 taught us anything it's that you can't predict anything, but you can certainly prepare for it. Listen to the rest of my conversation with @tferriss at
5
56
206
#MasteringTheMarketCycle is not a how-to guide. Rather, it tells #investors how I think about cycles, and to indicate the reasoning behind decisions to position portfolios for what may lie ahead without reliance on macro forecasts. -HM
10
48
192
Cycles will never stop occurring. If there were such a thing as a completely efficient market and if people really made decisions in a calculating and unemotional manner, perhaps cycles (or their extremes) would be banished. But that'll never be the case. #MasteringTheMarketCycle.
6
51
188
When it comes to investing, the two most important things are where we stand in the cycle and risk. Interestingly enough, where we stand in the cycle is actually the primary determinant of risk. Listen to the rest of my conversation with @tferriss at
4
47
186
If you haven't yet bought your copy of #MasteringTheMarketCycle, now’s the time! The ebook is available at $2.99 for a limited time on BookHub ( as well as Amazon, B&N, Apple, Google Books, and Kobo. It’s the perfect read given today’s market volatility.
20
29
186
When it comes to investing, we never know what the future holds and where we're going. But we should do all we can to know where we stand, since the current position of the cycle has powerful implications for how we should cope with its possible future. #MasteringTheMarketCycle.
2
46
177
Things that perform poorly will eventually become so cheap – due to depreciation and lack of investor interest – that they’ll be primed to outperform. Cycles like these hold the key to success, not trees that everyone is assuming will grow to the sky. #MasteringTheMarketCycle
2
58
182
Did you know that in the 1970s, economic stagnation set in, #inflation reached 16%, and the average stock lost almost half its value in two years? No, my fifty years in the market haven’t been all wine and roses. –HM
1
30
163
The vast majority of the highly superior investors I know are unemotional by nature. In fact, I believe their unemotional nature is one of the great contributors to their success. Learn more about investor psychology in #MasteringTheMarketCycle at –HM
6
36
162
Short-term #investment performance is largely a popularity contest, and most bargains exist for the simple reason that they haven’t yet been taken up by the herd and become popular. #MasteringTheMarketCycle.
5
51
155
In my 50 years in the investment business, the annual returns on the S&P 500 have swung from +37% to –37%. Averaging out good years and bad years, the long-run return is usually stated as 10%. Everyone’s been happy with that typical performance and I'd love more of the same. –HM
5
47
157
In the absence of an ability to see the future, how can we position our portfolios for what lies ahead? I think much of the answer lies in understanding where the market stands in its cycle and what that implies for its future movements. –HM #MasteringTheMarketCycle.
3
29
131
People also fluctuate between greed and fear. When people feel positive, they turn greedy and fixate on making money. Their greed causes them to compete to make investments, and their bidding causes markets to rise and assets to appreciate. #MasteringTheMarketCycle #Investment
3
34
140
If we pay attention to cycles, study past cycles, understand their origins, and keep alert for the next one, we won't have to reinvent the wheel in order to understand every investment environment anew. Learn more in #MasteringTheMarketCycle at
4
26
131
The #GlobalFinancialCrisis of 2007–08 represented the greatest financial downswing of my lifetime, and consequently, it presents the best opportunity to observe, reflect and learn. –HM.
2
19
120
In the 20th century, the U.S. surpassed Europe as an economic power. Japan sprinted forward in the ’70s but fell back in the ’80s. While their growth is slow, today's #EmergingMarkets (like China) may outgrow the developed world in the next few decades. #MasteringTheMarketCycle.
7
27
119
Mark Twain once said, “History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme.” Within #investing, cycles come in many forms, but the underlying reasons for them (and the patterns they produce) have a lot in common, and tend to be somewhat consistent over time. #MasteringTheMarketCycle.
0
33
129
Some outcomes will be the result of economic events and corporate profitability; some will be determined by investor psychology and the resulting behavior; and some will simply be determined by randomness or luck. #MasteringTheMarketCycle
2
44
126
Since companies don’t last as long as economies and markets do, the long-term cycle in company success may not take as long. Over time, companies’ gains can lead to losses, and losses can lay the groundwork for gains. There is a cycle in business success. #MasteringTheMarketCycle
5
33
122
One thing I've learned over the years is that #optimism has to underlie greed; it makes no sense to think people can be greedy and driven forward to invest when their expectations are negative. Optimism and pessimism encourage other emotions and influence behavior. –HM.
3
25
112
Cycles are important. Every investor should learn to recognize cycles, assess them, look for the instructions they imply, and do what they tell them to do. #MasteringTheMarketCycle
1
23
114
#Investing is bearing risk in pursuit of profit. Investors try to position portfolios so as to profit from future developments rather than be penalized by them. The superior investor is simply someone who does this better than others. #MasteringTheMarketCycle.
1
33
112
Henry Phipps once said, "Good times like the present, make bad times; a law sure as the swing of the pendulum." Good times can encourage good #investment decisions. But those good times can lead instead to bad times that test the decisions in ways they can’t withstand. –HM.
1
27
112
When should you pull out of the market? When should you stay in? Great investors have an exceptional sense for how cycles work & where we stand in the current one. That sense permits them to do a superior job of positioning portfolios for what lies ahead. #MasteringTheMarketCycle.
2
20
113
Where we stand in market cycles has a profound influence on future tendencies: on what is likely to happen, and perhaps even when. –HM #MasteringTheMarketCycle.
3
26
110
Skill and luck are the prime elements that determine the success of portfolio management decisions. Without skill on an investor’s part, decisions should not be expected to produce success. #MasteringTheMarketCycle.
2
21
110
Cycles arise from naturally occurring phenomena in everyday #business, and to a large extent, from the simple ups and downs of #HumanPsychology and behavior. #MasteringTheMarketCycle
2
22
102
Even the best investors won’t be successful all the time. Understanding that is critical. Success, like many other things, comes and goes. #MasteringTheMarketCycle #Investing
3
21
96
Humans use their ability to recognize and understand patterns to make decisions easier, increase benefits and avoid pain. Importantly, we depend on our knowledge of recurring patterns so we won't have to reconsider every decision from scratch. #MasteringTheMarketCycle.
3
29
93
It’s essential to recognize that when everyone is convinced that something will keep working forever, that’s the very time when it’ll become certain not to. Learn more in #MasteringTheMarketCycle at
4
28
95
How you handle risk shows what kind of investor you are. Anybody can make money when the market goes up, however, can you still make that money with the risks under control? See why risk is critical towards investment success at #MasteringTheMarketCycle
0
29
90
Thank you, @MikeBloomberg, for the kind words and support. –HM.
Throughout his career, Howard Marks has been a standout voice in the world of finance because he steps back and asks the right questions. Glad to hear his insights and celebrate his new book "Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side."
2
9
91
The key to being able to behave in a way that’s appropriate given the market climate lies in assessing psychology and the behavior of others. You have to know whether the market is red-hot and thus overpriced, or frigid and thus a bargain. #MasteringTheMarketCycle
1
24
86
When it comes to the pendulum of psychology, there's always a swing toward an extreme. Understanding swings is an entry-level requirement for avoiding harm from cyclical extremes and hopefully profiting from them. Learn more in #MasteringTheMarketCycle at
2
14
82
If we study past cycles, understand their origins and import, and keep alert for the next one, we don't have to reinvent the wheel in order to understand every investment environment anew. #MasteringTheMarketCycle
9
20
87
Do you understand the hidden logic behind market trends? #MasteringtheMarketCycle provides insight and analysis on how to track, and react to, the ups and downs of the stock market so that investors have the opportunity to improve their results.
1
19
87
"The three stages of a bull market” capture disproportionate wisdom in a few simple words. These stages are all about attitudes, the patterns they follow, and how they contribute to error. Learn more in #MasteringTheMarketCycle at –HM
0
23
81
The odds change as our position in the cycles changes. If we don’t change our investment stance as these things change, we're being passive regarding cycles. It's all a game of strategy. Learn more in #MasteringTheMarketCycle at
0
19
82
There are two economic cycles: long term and short term. While most people care about the short term, learn why the long term is worth paying attention to as well at #MasteringTheMarketCycle
1
22
80
In the absence of the ability to see the future, how can we position our portfolios for what lies ahead? Much of the answer lies in understanding where the market stands in its cycle and what that implies for its future movements. #MasteringTheMarketCycle #Investing
2
22
80
Timing can contribute greatly to an individual’s or a company’s success. Among other things, it helps to get involved in things at an above average time. #MasteringTheMarketCycle
5
13
80
The most important aspect in developing an investment philosophy is having a deep understanding of how markets work. Why? Because buying a stock for the likes of it does not represent how profits come into existence. Learn more at #MasteringTheMarketCycle
4
21
76
I recently had the pleasure of sitting down with @barronsonline and providing my assessment of the recent market upheaval.
0
16
76
“Consider buying things with solid fundamentals when they go on sale.” Listen to @HowardMarksBook.interviewed on the @GoldmanSachs #podcast “Top of Mind at Goldman Sachs.” You can also read the report here: #OaktreeInsights.
What should we expect when it comes to the severity of the current recession? @AllisonNathanGS discusses the latest with $GS Chief Economist Jan Hatzius on the "Top of Mind at Goldman Sachs" #podcast:
2
18
78
Events happen equally to everyone who is operating in a given environment. But not everyone listens to them equally in the sense of paying attention, being aware of them, and thus potentially figuring out their importance. #MasteringTheMarketCycle #Investing
0
17
76
What does risk mean to you? Learn about risk and your behavior towards it in #MasteringTheMarketCycle:
1
17
76
Investment success is like choosing a lottery winner and superior investors have a better sense for whether it’s worth participating. In other words, they have an above-average understanding of future tendencies. Learn more in #MasteringTheMarketCycle at
3
17
71
Howard often says, when it comes to #investing, there is no "single most important thing" one can do. However, it's important to be attentive to cycles. #MasteringTheMarketCycle.
1
18
72
What's the benefit of studying cycles? Investment success. If we understand cycles, we can increase our bets and place them on more aggressive investments when the odds are in our favor. Learn more in #MasteringTheMarketCycle at
3
9
69
Thank you @Greenbackd; I appreciate the recognition!.
50 of the best investing books of all time:. 1. Poor Charlie’s Almanack, Peter Kaufman.2. Margin of Safety, Seth Klarman.3. The Intelligent Investor, Benjamin Graham.4. The Most Important Thing, Howard Marks.5. Value Investing: From Graham to Buffett and Beyond, Bruce Greenwald.
4
7
68
When people think of cycles, they see them as a series of events. The events in the life of a cycle shouldn’t be viewed merely as each being followed by the next, but, more importantly, as each causing the next. Learn more at #MasteringTheMarketCycle
2
13
66
I believe the credit cycle is the most volatile of the cycles and has the greatest impact. Thus it deserves a great deal of attention. Learn more in #MasteringTheMarketCycle at
1
17
68
The investing environment is always changing, and investors’ efforts to respond to the environment cause it to change further. Thus there is always something new to learn and share in times ahead. #MasteringTheMarketCycle
2
16
66
To sum up a lot of what #MasteringTheMarketCycle is about, cycles vary in terms of reasons and details, and timing and extent, but the ups and downs will occur forever, producing changes in the investment environment. Learn more at
1
15
67
It's important to know that cycles oscillate around their midpoints. These ups and downs are caused by various phenomenon and in order to be successful we need to understand them and somewhat predict them. Learn more at #MasteringTheMarketCycle
1
7
52
The greatest way to optimize the positioning of a portfolio at a given point in time is deciding what balance it should strike between aggressiveness and defensiveness. Learn more in #MasteringTheMarketCycle at
1
8
54
Good times can encourage certain investment decisions that depend on the perpetuation of such times in order to succeed. But those times often produce bad times that test the decisions in ways they can't withstand. See why in #MasteringTheMarketCycle at
0
16
52
Thanks, @stig_brodersen and @PrestonPysh, for having me on the show. I look forward to sharing our conversation with everyone next week as well! –HM.
Honored to have interviewed @HowardMarksBook today about his new thoughtful book "Mastering the Market Cycle." We can't wait to release our discussion with Mr. Marks on October 13th. #MasteringTheMarketCycle #TIP. @PrestonPysh.
2
5
49
Do you understand the hidden logic behind market trends? #MasteringTheMarketCycle provides insight and analysis on how to track, and react to, the ups and downs of the stock market so that investors have the opportunity to improve their results.
3
10
46
This professorship will support today’s students in exploring the intersection of behavior and business in the global marketplace. #Education.
🎉 Prof. @JuddKessler has been named the inaugural Howard Marks Endowed Professor. Funded by #WhartonGrad @HowardMarksBook (W'67), the professorship is dedicated to Wharton faculty in the field of behavioral economics and behavioral investing.
4
3
48
ICYMI: In his most recent memo, Howard considers the future of "#Investing Without People." Read/subscribe/watch: #OaktreeInsights #OaktreeVideos
1
8
45
Little in this world is certain– especially in investing. However, all things rise and fall and we can take advantage of the fluctuating cycles around us to help make things a little more certain. Learn more in #MasteringTheMarketCycle at
1
9
44
This is because the movements of the economic cycle aren’t the only thing that influences sales, and also because a change in sales doesn’t necessarily result in an equivalent change in profits. #MasteringTheMarketCycle
1
6
35
Cyclical events are influenced by both endogenous and exogenous developments. Understanding these causative interactions isn't easy, but it holds much of the key to understanding the investment environment. Learn more at #MasteringTheMarketCycle
0
10
32
Thank you, @TonyRobbins, for the support! –HM.
Congratulations to Howard Marks on his NEW book, #MasteringTheMarketCycle! Howard is a legendary investor -- years ago, I interviewed him for MONEY Master the Game: 7 Steps to Financial Freedom. Learn more about his book at @HowardMarksBook.
0
2
31
Had a great discussion at @uclaanderson last night. Thank you for having me. –HM.
"Great investors by definition are contrarian. You must invest idiosyncratically, but by definition doing so is uncomfortable.".- @HowardMarksBook, Co-Founder and Co-Chairman @Oaktree Capital Management.#MasteringTheMarketCycle | #FinancialEducation
0
4
20
I’m honored to have Tom McCullough (@familyadvisor1) interview me on stage about my book at The Rotman School and even more honored to be included in his book coming out in November that I recommend: Wealth of Wisdom. –HM.
It was a pleasure to interview Howard Marks (@HowardMarksBook) on stage at the Rotman School on Tuesday. Howard’s new book, ‘Mastering The Market Cycle’ is out now, and is worth a read for anyone interested in understanding market cycles.
0
3
17
@Karna_Dharma @Invest_Books @jitenkparmar @Amit_Jeswani1 Thanks for pre-ordering. I hope you enjoy Mastering the Market Cycle!.
0
0
2