Tobias Carlisle
@Greenbackd
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PM, Acquirers Funds® . Author, The Acquirer's Multiple () and Deep Value ().
Los Angeles, CA 🇺🇲🇦🇺🦘
Joined February 2009
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Hi! I run a deep-value firm called Acquirers Funds®
We implement the Acquirer's Multiple® in a liquid, and tax- and capital-efficient way:
Read the book:
Hear the podcast:
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Is Buffett's $AAPL position the greatest trade ever?
$36 billion cost basis
$92 billion value today
~$56 billion in profit in a little over a year.
Anything else come close on this scale?
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It was planted the last time value outperformed.
The oldest olive tree in the world. Its age is estimated to be from the Minoan times in 1350-1100 BC. It is located in Kavousi, Crete, Greece.
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Best investment letters, ranked:
1. Warren Buffett – Berkshire Hathaway
2. Howard Marks – Oaktree Capital Memos
3. Seth Klarman – The Baupost Group
4. Jamie Dimon – JPMorgan Chase
5. Prem Watsa – Fairfax Financial
6. Dan Loeb – Third Point Management
7. Jeremy Grantham – GMO
Which Are The Best Shareholder Letters For Investors To Read
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The only vertebrate alive on the planet the last time value worked.
This is a 393-years old Greenland Shark that was located in the Arctic Ocean. It's been wandering the ocean since 1627. It is the oldest living vertebrate known on the planet.
Photo by Julius Nielsen.
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"Starting in 1965 if you invested at the peak of the market in each year, your annual return was 10.6%. If you timed the market perfectly, invested at the low point of each year, your return was 11.7%. The difference between great timing and lousy timing was only 1.1%."
-Lynch
Peter Lynch: Far More Money Has Been Lost By Investors Trying To Time Corrections Than In All Corrections Combined
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Amigos!
We’re launching a new podcast called The Acquirers Podcast.
It’s about finding undervalued stocks, deep value investing, hedge funds, activism, buyouts, and special situations.
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50 of the best investing books of all time:
1. Poor Charlie’s Almanack, Peter Kaufman
2. Margin of Safety, Seth Klarman
3. The Intelligent Investor, Benjamin Graham
4. The Most Important Thing, Howard Marks
5. Value Investing: From Graham to Buffett and Beyond, Bruce Greenwald
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Buffett at 1:47: “My partner Charlie says there is only three ways a smart person can go broke: liquor, ladies, and leverage. Now the truth is, the first two he just added because they started with ‘L’ – It’s leverage.”
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The Investor's Manifesto from Azvalor Asset Management. A good list.
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Twitter is what happens if the blog post is removed from the blog, leaving only the comment section.
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Vale.
“If you just avoid being a perfect idiot, and have a good character and just keep doing it day after day, it’s amazing how it will work… . In the end, I’m like the Old Valiant-for-Truth in The Pilgrim’s Progress: ‘My sword I leave to him who can wear it.’”
My sword, I
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Buffett's not slowing down. Everything must go.
Berkshire Hathaway subsidiaries sold nearly half a million shares of U.S. Bancorp on Monday and Tuesday. Buffett’s firm now owns a stake of less than 10% in the bank.
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Deep value investors:
Conference Call Fit: New revolutionary training program to prepare you for business life
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To more fully recreate the $BRK.B experience I woke up before dawn and lined up outside my front door:
TODAY:
@YahooFinance
is the exclusive online host of the 2020 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders Meeting! Tune in at 4 PM ET to watch:
#YFBuffett
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The Fear & Greed Index is 19. (Below 20 has historically been a pretty good time to buy.)
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Q. What is the number one investing podcast in Kazakhstan?
A. The Acquirers Podcast.
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100% this is P.R. placement by Robinhood. Can't believe CNBC just ran it. And you can find some variation of this on Forbes every. single. day.
One 26-year-old Robinhood trader made $1,500 in less than 24 hours betting on a beaten-down airline stock.
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The market:
“In Brazil, a group of people doing CrossFit passed by outside a restaurant, but those eating thought they were running away from something and decided to run away with them”
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BOFA says more capital flowed into global equities in 2021 than in the previous decade combined:
(Stolen from LinkedIn)
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I'm proud of all of you.
Retail options speculation has hit an all-time high
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Bill Ackman's core principles.
Invest in:
* simple
* predictable
* FCF generative
* dominant companies
* large barriers to entry
* earn high returns on capital
* limited exposure to extrinsic risk we can’t control
* don’t need capital to survive
* have excellent mgt
Bill Ackman: Engrave Your Investment Principles In Stone And Stick To Them
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"I entered a stock-picking contest over six months, I came in like 56 over 1,000. The guy who came in first blew everyone away. They interviewed him and he said, 'I had a strategy. I bought whatever was hitting a 52-week high and trading close to $1. That was it.'”
@PaulAndreola
Successfully Investing Using William O’Neil’s CAN SLIM® Investing System
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I'm happy to announce my new book The Acquirer’s Multiple: How the Billionaire Contrarians of Deep Value Beat the Market is available now.
New book out now! The Acquirer’s Multiple: How the Billionaire Contrarians of Deep Value…
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I'm starting a thread on recession indicators. Throw your best charts below.
The LMI (logistics manager index) hit an all time low - down to 47.3 in May from 50.9 in April - highlighting a quiet implosion of activity occurring in the freight sector as the economy slows down.
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"Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Christianity without hell."
-Frank Borman
@DavidBCollum
No room for creative destruction anymore. Lots of "zombie firms" that don't make enough profit to make even the interest payments on their debt. Not a good omen.
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Warren Buffett: An Appreciation
"As Warren Buffett turns 90, the story of one of America’s most influential and wealthy business leaders is a study in the logic and discipline of understanding future value."
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Got a bid for the house from OpenDoor. Offered about 20% of value according to Zillow based on comps from Phoenix. The house is in LA.
Good luck to everyone investing in this algo.
This has to be high on my list of favorite company values:
BPS for Breakfast -- OpenDoor
"We eat “BPS (basis points) for breakfast” — meaning we are always looking for where we can take costs out of the transaction — so we can put more money in the pockets of our customers."
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Fellow EBIT/EV value dorks. The value spread is wider. All-time widest.
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Charles Munger’s 32 Books That Every Investor Should Read:
1. Influence (Robert Cialdini)
2. In The Plex: How Google Thinks (Steven Levy)
3. The Greatest Trade Ever (Gregory Zukerman)
4. Poor Charlie’s Almanack (Charles Munger)
5. The Outsiders (William Thorndike)
Charles Munger: 32 Books That Every Investor Should Read
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Amazing we're at the Buffett-bails-out-the-banks stage of the cycle and the Shiller PE is 28.
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"The last time Nasdaq/Russell 2000 traded here was March 2000 - the very peak of the dotcom bubble."
'Value' Stocks Puked, 'Growth' Gains, As Heavy Flow Hammers Bonds
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This is a drawdown for ants. A crash on the scale of those two gaping chasms in 2002 and 2009 is what worries me.
@ycharts
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Chart shows the number of classic Benjamin Graham net nets (market cap < 2/3rds Net Current Asset Value) from 1999 to date.
There are currently 220.
There were 427 on March 7th, 2009.
There have been more than 220 on about 130 days since 1999, about 10% of the time.
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This is interesting:
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Market at all-time highs = buybacks full-steam ahead
Market off ~20% = buybacks cut in half
"Coronavirus may threaten companies’ buyback plans...Companies authorized ~$122 billion in future buybacks through February, marking nearly 50% drop from same period a year ago and representing slowest pace in three years"
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No, a decade of value underperforming hasn't affected me at all. Why do you ask?
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Top.
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Drawn from Berkshire's 13Fs from 1980-2006.
Median holding period of 1 year. 30% of stocks sold within 6 months. Only 20% held for >2 years.
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EBIT/EV value spread has blown out to a new all-time high.
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Who's your favorite investor not named Buffett?
For me it's Walter Schloss. He didn't go to college, borrowed his copies of Value Line, had no assistants, and walked home at 4:30pm every day.
He averaged 16% for 50 years from 1955, beating the market by 6% a year.
Value After Hours (S03 E47): Taylor, Brewster, and Carlisle discuss their Favorite Non-Buffett Investor.
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This is wild. The Buffett Indicator, total market cap to the US GNP, “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment,” according to Buffett, is in uncharted territory. Higher than 2000 by a margin.
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Belichick has Poor Charlie's Almanack!
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Last night my 5-year old asked if Punxsutawney Phil had any natural "creditors" (predators). Possibly I'm talking too much finance at home.
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$NKLA is playing 4D chess: Use the allegations of fraud to distract from the fact there's nothing there. It's $20 billion of hot air.
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"The Russell 2000 finished September 2023 with a 2.4% 5-year annualized return—a performance nearly identical to its year-to-date result through the end of 3Q23 and evidence of just how underwhelming recent returns have been for the small-cap index.
...
Yet the average price
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Chart shows the number of stocks under 3 x EV / EBIT TTM in the Russell 3000.
Currently 905. All-time high.
h/t
@ValueStockGeek
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"Valuation, I find, is a useless tool. If you base your investment decisions on valuation, you are never going to make money."
Thank you for your sacrifice, Mark Schmerl.
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The Acquirers Podcast launched a year ago this week.
First week had 2,826 downloads.
This week saw 24,925 downloads.
Many thanks to
@asxbites
,
@BillBrewsterSCG
,
@farnamjake1
, guests and listeners (all 12 of you).
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A “negative-value” fund, composed of the shares of stocks with negative tangible book value, would have beaten the main US stock market, represented by the Russell 3000 Index, by 24% over the last 20 years. That outperformance has almost all happened since the financial crisis.
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Watch the "E."
The trailing 12-month P/E ratio for $SPX is 17.4., which is below the 5-year average (19.9) and below the 10-year average (17.6).
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We've seen this one before. We all know how it ends.
NVIDIA is now trading at 29x sales and 182x earnings. Investors are clearly pricing in enormous growth from AI but are these expectations too high? $NVDA
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Buffett's a genius. Nice analysis of the BNSF purchase a decade on:
"Buffett paid $34bn, took out $31bn in dividends and is left with +$100bn in value. "
Already owned 20%, so paid ~$26bn for the shares he didn't own + the company issued $8bn in bonds.
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Bear markets 1871 to present.
Median decline was 38% and lasted 24 months.
Average decline was 40% and lasted 43 months.
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A truly remarkable run in boring old $DDS since Ted Weschler, one of Buffett's two investing lieutenants, revealed a ~6 percent personal stake in Q3 2020.
Time and Patience.
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"There’s an 18-month waitlist to buy a Ferrari. A billionaire can’t stroll into a store and buy one. If you get to the front of the line, and say, 'It's a recession. I’m going to wait,' you never get back on the list. It’s the most recession-resistant car company."
@IntrinsicInv
Ferrari – The Billionaires Club – The Ultimate Idiosyncratic Business
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"I bought into Icahn Enterprises $IEP in 1996 thinking I was bottom fishing Carl Icahn. I paid $9 when it was $13 of net cash, and $10 of RE. 6 years go by and the stock hasn’t moved. In 2007 it went from 9 to 140. 6 years of misery turned into a 10-year 20% CAGR."
-Mittleman
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After Marky Mark released his daily workout regime, I've had a lot of people asking how I stay so Twitter fit. Here it is:
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Nassim Taleb's book recommendations. Taken from his writings, interviews, and lectures, and Amazon reviews:
1 Seeking Wisdom (Bevelin)
2 The Opposing Shore (Gracq)
3 The Tartar Steppe (Buzzati)
4 Why Stock Markets Crash (Sornette)
5 A Guide to Econometrics (Kennedy)
Nassim Taleb: 17 Books That Every Investor Should Read
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Incredible. 148-page compendium of wisdom from many famous investors. Keynes, Simpson, Keogh, Richard Chandler, Dreman, Chanos, Akre, Ruane, Zell, Pzena, Montier, Grantham, Greenblatt, Schloss, Templeton, Buffett, Graham, Klarman, Marks, Munger, Fisher.
Likely by
@pcordway
?
Someone (who?) shared this thick 148-page compendium of wisdom from many famous investors
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Gangster maneuver.
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Seven lessons for surviving as an investor by
@iancassel
:
1. Cash Is King
2. Cut Your Ego And Cut Expenses
3. Control Your Emotions
4. Create Your Wish List/Buy List
5. Sell The Weak
6. Stop Trying To Pick A Bottom
7. Get More Diversified
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The 10-3 inversion is slowly un-inverting, in from -1.89 in May / June to -1.17 yesterday, the tightest it's been since March.
10-3 inversions have preceded the last eight recessions, but it is the un-inversion that most immediately precedes the declaration of a recession.
The
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"It wasn't brains that got me here."
Bank of America's unrealized losses on held-to-maturity securities now exceed $130 Billion
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Greatest trade ever.
People, the Cook tweet was a joke. Let's talk about the actual biggest $AAPL winner: in absolute dollar terms, Buffett.
Between 2016-2018, Berkshire bought ~1B shares (adjusted for 4-1 stock split) for $36B.
That's now worth $150B+:
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My chat with
@CliffordAsness
on systematic value investing:
* Do Fundamentals Still Matter?
* Does Price-To-Book Still Work?
* A Correlation Between Value Investing And Interest Rates
* Investing Parallels Between Today and The Late 1990’s
* Value Works And Random Doesn’t
(Ep.74) The Acquirers Podast: Cliff Asness – Cliff’s Perspective, Systematic Value. Do Fundamentals Matter?
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New EBIT/EV value spread to 4.39.
Wider than last month and third widest reading in the data.
When it widens, value underperforms. When it narrows, value outperforms.
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The 20 best books on investor psychology:
1 Thinking Fast and Slow, Kahneman
2 The Little Book of Behavioral Investing, Montier
3 Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics, Thaler
4 Predictably Irrational, Ariely
5 Fooled by Randomness, Taleb
20 Of The Best Books On Investor Psychology – All Time
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A core concern for investors contemplating taking advantage of the incredible cheapness of deep value stocks today is the potential for a near-term recession. A common perception is that value stocks are more cyclical and therefore more vulnerable to economic downturn.
We find
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Buffett says, "Price is my diligence," by which he means:
@BillBrewsterSCG
@morganhousel
@Greenbackd
The higher the price the more things you need to believe, hence the more diligence you should do to verify those things.
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Also now 43% of his book, the Kelly-bettin' son of a gun.
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If Charlie Munger Didn’t Quit When He Was Divorced, Broke, and Burying His 9 Year Old Son, You Have No Excuse
9 years later and this is still the best article on the internet
If Charlie Munger Didn’t Quit When He Was Divorced, Broke, and Burying His 9 Year Old Son, You Have No Excuse
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"At 10 times revs, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revs for 10 straight years in dividends. ... Do you realize how ridiculous those assumptions are? You don’t need any transparency. You don’t need any footnotes. What were you thinking?"
-Scott McNeely
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$META (25x) now more expensive than $GOOG (21x) on an EV / EBIT basis.
$META was under 6x in November last year.
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It was fun while it lasted.
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Buffett's getting more in divvy's from his Japanese holdings than the interest cost on his borrow:
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At 2.977%, the ten-year treasury rate is now halfway to its long run average of 5.93%. Imagine the carnage...
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"God looks after children, animals and idiots."
-Lou Holtz
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