Don Johnson
@DonMiami3
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An Internet Enigma | Chief Economist & Builder at @macroedgeres | Questioning the Status Quo | Inspiring Daily | Macro Data & Commentary | Common Sense Advocate
Joined February 2021
Millennials preparing for the 37th once in a lifetime event in the last 5 years
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Having worked with a few in this age bracket - many simply don’t care. I don’t blame them.
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A recently divorced woman w/2 children shared her monthly budget sheet on FB & it went viral. I repost these because it’s perspective on the median & mean. Social media focuses on the fake and the .1%.
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Note from a laid off Cisco Manager to all, valid life lessons:. "Just a quick 7 min Webex and a very long career is over. Even after serving my entire career, running a very large team, building software, minting $100+ Million in YOY revenue. Stuck with legacy technology.
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This is what happens when you take energy advice from Greta Thunberg
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Breckenridge Day pass from 3/2007 was $57… today $245 + fees . Eye opening devaluation of the dollar
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@ericson4smith @MacroEdgeRes @MacroEdgeVision “Vastly smaller salaries” = inflation adjusted much higher salaries on real basis with substantially more purchasing power.
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Holy shit 53% of outstanding mortgages in Canada are ARMs.
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Here’s a breakdown of those added jobs: . Full Time -71,000.Part Time +384,000.Multiple Jobs +92,000. Read past the headlines.
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If you don’t want to do anything with your life - go into corporate America in 2024. You will spend most of the day in useless meetings discussing useless agenda items to solve a problem that was solved in the late 90s. Then some dumbass middle manager will kick it on to some.
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“I own 9 AirBNBs on 5% down payments and cash flow $7k a month”
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My driver this evening is a realtor that’s sold 1 home this year. He’s been doing it 40 years.
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Jamie Dimon is as out of touch on America as it comes & his speech on the American dream is a reality that died for most decades ago. I get in Lyft’s and the drivers are working 3 extra hours driving after their two job shifts just to put food on the table. Bartenders trying to.
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@RealDinoCapital @MacroEdgeRes @MacroEdgeVision Apathy - many still living with parents. Different world.
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Realtors watching rates skyrocket again after telling clients that rate cuts meant lower rates
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Money market funds are not cash on the sidelines.
There is *casually* $7 TRILLION in cash on the sidelines. Higher for longer is back.
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*BUD LIGHT WILL NOT BE RESTOCKED AT COSTCO NATIONWIDE AMID LARGEST SALES DROP OFF EVER $BUD.
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Starting to see 350-500K reductions on boats lol. The dumbest ‘asset’ class of them all.
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This is called - just pay off the balance of my mortgage…
@VladTheInflator . Finally a RE agent that wants to see proper price discovery.
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Seeing port workers pull in $340K to push a button on an unloader definitely makes me ponder what my brain was thinking many years ago.
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There it is. 30YR mortgage rate ticks back to 7%. Up almost a full percent since the rate cut.
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Few understand that it’s never been more over than it is now.
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Many boomers with ‘wealth’ acquired it from being at the right place & right time, luck, controlling the political decision making for self benefits, ZIRP, and by being apart of the most selfish generation in American history. Now they’re pulling up the ladder as they live it.
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⚠️Burry just shorted the market with $1.6B position . Bought $890M of $SPY Puts.Bought $740M of $QQQ Puts. ~Approx 95% of his portfolio is short
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Golfing with 3 other very successful individuals - they all agree, America is becoming the land of ‘haves or have nots’, social mobility is all but dead, and you either have asset exposure or you have I’ll be chained to the bottom forever. ‘1st world empire’ with 3rd world.
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Trucking employment is contracting the fastest on record this century
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@BillAckman So embarrassing for you to post this Bill. Imaging thinking ‘humanity’ is funding to continue another endless war. Joke.
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Just met a gentleman with a $1,900 a month payment on an F350. lol. 1900.
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25% of my team just axed in my office this am. Haven’t seen that in a long, long, time - mood is like a funeral.
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Trump now explicitly mentioning a ‘1929’ scenario via Truth Social… . Keep an eye on that employment data along with valuations… quiet last week of the year ahead.
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Welcome to the Miami dating scene in 2023. Worst pool of women on earth 😂
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@BeeKamens @JoeBiden Thank the taxpayers lol, another useless degree subsidized by Americans.
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Mortgage brokers after they fleece a young family for 7.25% on a 30 year
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If you’re a non-obese single man 5’9 or taller making $80k or more - you’re a 2.2%er - starting acting like it.
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I backtested a recession predictor using the 3m/10y curves - it has not missed in predicting the last 8 recessions (including COVID flash crash recession). If you look at which cycles are most similar - I circled them based on the rate of descent of the curve.
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This whole ‘get back to the office now!’ push is coming from the top down due to collapsing CRE values. The idea that you are more productive after a stressful 2 hour commute sitting in a cubicle with an office and a paid vending machine is absolute nonsense. The only thing it.
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Trump has made 10x more on paper in 24 hours on a ‘token coin’ than in 60 years of CRE… welcome to the new dawn.
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Me watching single people sign up for $650K mortgages right now . *watch the actual F are you thinking*
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Highest recession odds in 30+ years yet the insane consumption continues - baffles me at hotels being full, games full, bars and clubs full, rental cars sold out, casinos all time visitation. Bizarro times and hard to predict when exactly the music might slow - or stop.
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Full time employment has collapsed -692k over just the last 3 months. Last time this happened: 2001, 2008. This report was a ton of low paid, low skilled holiday jobs…….
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How many Airbnb hoteliers took out 30 year mortgages but made <2 year business plans if demand hit zero? . #MacroEdge
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$350 a week for groceries. No idea how a working family affords this.
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When you realize just 200bps put the US into a slowdown in 2018 but the Fed kicked the can to 2023 and now we’re at 510bps with people named IBangUrMom69420 selling their get rich quick courses on buying call options. It ends well.
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Who tf is buying a home right now? Worst time in history - you’re either insane, high, or both.
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The recession model developed by Harvard PhD Arturo Estrella has the odds of a recession in the next 12 months (between July of 2023 and July of 2024) at 99.82%. I know your push-up bra TikTok economists and IG RE course couples are smarter though. Respect the lag.
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My face when she says she’s got an $875/mo car loan, 30 YR mortgage made on a 3% DP, $57,000 in student loans, $26,000 in credit card debt, and says the Fed will never allow another recession to happen.
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How the fuck is an average American family affording a baseball game? . It’s $750 for a family of 4.
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I meet so many miserable young folk who claim they are behind in life because they compare their reality to the fake social media life of whoever they follow. Comparison is the biggest thief of joy - if you are employed or running a business, have goals, are staying in shape,
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Are people not drinking or are they too broke to buy wine? . “The California wine industry is experiencing an unprecedented downturn”
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You seriously couldn’t write a movie script for whatever period of time we’re about to enter. #Circus
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Inbox from a North Texas homebuilder. Interesting with how much inventory has built up in these states (esp TN)
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Some days I like to ponder the deeper questions, “why are we running a World War 2 level deficit if the economy is strong?”
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@Forbes Alt right? This fucking bitch donated the most to Dems of anyone besides you dumbasses. Fake ass writers. Pond scum.
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ISRAEL CARRIES OUT AIRSTRIKES IN IRAN: AXIOS' RAVID REPORTS ON X.
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We are entering Powell’s Valhalla stage - where the peasants who don’t own assets are completely decimated & a permanent renter slave class is created while the top 5% own everything and party on 24/7 making millions with high rates and unlimited stock market returns. The Fed
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Total unsold new homes for sale now at its highest level since. December 2007. Prices are too high.
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Biden says: I want to get inflation down . Biden means: here’s $10,000 to buy a house. Can’t make it up.
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A Waffle House employee will get audited and charged for not reporting cash tips but if you’ve got a 20 page rap sheet from Honduras and walk into CA you get a free flight to NYC and a $10K debit card with a free job to replace a citizen. lol, lmao. What a joke we’ve become.
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The American dream in 2023 . A 300sqft shanty for almost $150K not in California but in mofo San Antonio ladies and gentlemen. Is this the dream Jamie Dimon was on about?
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The jobs report (in the data) was terrible. 123k part time.-22k full time employees (3 m/m in a row. 151k 2nd or 3rd+ job holders. 222k Unincorporated self employed (1099 gig workers).
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How they are convincing anyone it’s a ‘dream’ to be shackled to $6,800 a month payments for 30 years at 7% with home values at all time highs and collapsing demographics is way above my pay grade.
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Another excerpt from Burry speaking at the 2012 UCLA graduation ceremony… speaking on the decline of the quality of life in America that is ahead & what’s underway…. Worth a listen:
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No one needs a $500K drivable bed anymore, I guess.
@MacroEdgeRes At the boats and RVs part of the cycle.
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Ally CEO mentions credit challenges due to weakening employment & inflation - stock gets hammered on the comment.
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Watching 'PoundUrMom420' on Reddit outperform your 5.4 Goldman CDs by full porting their grandmother's inheritance into $NVDA
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$AMC maybe the only stock I’ve seen go up 20% after dilution. 😂.
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Modern day corporate America is essentially indentured servitude. They pay you enough monthly so you take out tons of liabilities that are enough to make you ‘comfortable’ - but not free from the payments of those liabilities. Most Americans at the end of the month (or.
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