Drew Dickson
@AlbertBridgeCap
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Musings on behavioral finance, stock-picking, and other stuff. Views expressed do not represent those of Albert Bridge Capital LP.
Joined September 2017
Honored that @jonathanrstern chose #stayinthegame to launch his Hat Tip Podcast. And he did a wonderful job.
Today I'm launching the Hat Tip Podcast, where my goal is to transform outstanding essays into compelling audio-video narratives. Episode 1 features @AlbertBridgeCap's classic "Stay in the Game". Thank you Drew for allowing me to feature this magical story on episode 1. It's
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This is a special edition blog post. Nothing to do with finance, and everything to do with life, and why you gotta stay in the game. Apologies for how personal it is, but my son and I needed to tell it.
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I think I just found the single most compelling reason to shift some of your portfolio of investments into European value stocks going forward.
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Precisely five years ago, Tesla traded for $19.61 per share. At the time, the consensus 2023 EPS expectation for $TSLA was $2.81. Today, it is $3.16, or 12% higher. The stock, however, is up nearly 1000% to $212. A thread. .
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A company that may do $3.2 billion of revenues next year being valued at $120 billion is equivalent to a company that may do $32,000 of revenue next year being worth $1.2 million. Maybe that makes sense, maybe it doesn’t. $ZM.
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Three years ago today I wrote my most impactful blog post, and it had absolutely nothing to do with finance or the stock market. Writing it helped me deal with some things, and it ended up providing hope for more people than I ever could have imagined.
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I've always felt this, I'm just going to say it here, and I don't care what you think, you crazy millennials. Lagers>IPAs
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This is my fourth annual repost of this article that (I think) helped a lot of kids, and a lot of parents. And today I am pleased to report that my main man Max and his wife are having my first grandchild in less than two months. #stayinthegame.
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Summing up the entire pandemic investing experience in one chart, with just two stocks.
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As crude oil, gasoline, and natural gas prices continue onward and upward, I have been amazed by the reactions of some people. These folks seem to believe that surging O&G prices emboldens their view that we should speed up the transition to zero carbon even more quickly. 1/8.
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Might as well trot out this one today, because who doesn't love this visual (whether $TSLA or $TSLAQ)?. Oh, and the non-Tesla automakers also have about $200 billion in net industrial cash. Truly a sight to behold.
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Here’s a timeline cleanser for you. My “stay in the game” son Max and his beautiful wife Rachel just gave me a grandson, Massimiliano Nicolo Dickson II.
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The takes by $TSLA that these price cuts are good for Tesla are ridiculous. Be honest with yourself. Tesla of course did NOT want to do have to do this, and it signifies lower than expected sales and/or severe margin pressure, but. .
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Sunday Times article about the Top Gun sequel:. "Cruise looks about 36 days older than he did in 1986, rather than 36 years.".
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Guy has a big fight with his girlfriend, then tries to kill himself taking a bottle of anti-depressants. Turns out he got the drugs in a trial, was getting placebos and didn’t know it. He almost died…. h/t to @abnormalreturns .
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The rental car company has purchased 35,000 cars from Tesla, and, unfortunately, "the resale value of their Tesla fleet has decreased by about 30 percent, and EV maintenance costs have been higher than initially expected.". That hurts.
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The TLDR version: Due to some technical things, you know, like pricing economics after the sun has set or when the wind isn’t blowing, we may have overstated the efficacy of solar and wind. .
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Tipping my hat to Jim Chanos, a hero of capitalism. The "shorts" are just trying to make markets efficient; prevent excess, corporate malfeasance, and investor losses. Given how the market has ripped these last few years, his returns have been stellar. Well done @WallStCynic.
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I'n not buying this "Robinhood investors are driving the rally" story at all. That goes not just for indices, but for individual stocks. Even $HTZ. Something else is going on.
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I’m 56 years old. And my 82 year old mom still tells me I’m doing things wrong. And when she does, I still react like I’m 14.
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Exactly nine months ago, the supposedly bearish (according the $TSLA fans) Wall Street sell-side analyst community expected Tesla to generate earnings per share in 2023 of $6.34. And the stock traded at $242, for a forward P/E of ~38x. 1/3.
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What if you see a tired puppy dog?.
Apparently, if you can see two people hugging, you're left-brained, and if you can see a dinosaur, you're right-brained. What do you see in the mountain?
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I just wasted a monumental amount of time trying to the last dollop of toothpaste out of the tube, and realized I have been doing this for decades. I'll bet growth guys don't do that. Gotta be a value thing.
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Truly enjoyed my chat with @EmmetPeppers and @MatchasmMatt about all things $TSLA. There is so much we all have to learn from each other when debate is civil and nuanced. I know I learned something. And thanks Wes @alphaarchitect for connecting us.
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Well, it's that time of year. Time for my favorite graphic I've ever created.
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Short sellers are “true evil”?. Give me a break. Short sellers are capitalism’s patriots.
@SawyerMerritt @Tesla Tesla will continue to use outside litigators, but it’s important to build a powerful litigation team internally, so that we’re not always on the defensive. We’ll also go after the Wall St short-sellers, certain law firms & (sometimes) corrupt regulators who are the true evil.
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Hey you buy-and-hold Buffett disciples 😇, surprised?
A few professors looked at Berkshire's 13Fs from 1980-2006. Median holding period of 1 year. 30% of stocks sold within 6 months. Only 20% held for >2 years. Would guess turnover was even higher pre-1980. (No 13Fs filed before 1979.).
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I know I'm late to this, but I'm watching The Bear. Last night I got to episode 6 of season 2. Can I just say that it was the best written/directed/acted show I have ever seen in my entire life. Unparalleled intensity, making the wildest Breaking Bad episode pale in comparison.
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$TSLA up another $20 billion on the share split. Started the year with a $78B market cap. Now $355 billion higher. To $433 billion. This is epic. Epically nonsensical.
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Two years ago, today, I wrote this piece about my struggling son, and the man who magically entered his life. Two weeks ago, that same son got married. And that magic man was there for that too. Thank you again @KennyKennyMoe3.
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In case you were curious. The market cap at $TSLA now exceeds $1.5 trillion. This is an all-time high, even higher than there fervor in late 2021. It's trading at 13x forward (2025) sales and a P/E of >130x.
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Let me get this straight. - AMZN is boosting starting pay to $18 an hour and hiring another 125K.- used cars are selling for nearly as much as new cars, if you can find them.- furniture and appliances are on backorder for 6 months.- we are basically out of semiconductors.
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You know you are getting old when an analyst that your friend Chris Hohn hired in the early days of TCI is about to become the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.
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A thread on why retail investors get hurt more often than they need to:. So, $TSLA has gained over $50 billion in market cap today because sell-side analyst Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley has again purposefully let his thesis drift.
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14 year-old twins had some buddies over this morning. Each told me they bought doge ahead of SNL tonight hoping it rips then they sell. I tried telling them that they have to imagine every other doge buyer having the same idea as they are having, but they weren't buying it.
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Everything’s fine now, but this was a close one. I know they say pickups aren’t necessarily safer, but when a someone comes barreling through an intersection at 80 and does this to your son, I hope he’s in a truck.
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This student loan forgiveness is one of the most politically-motivated, divisive, disincentivizing, misguided policies I've ever seen. And sadly, the least economically literate think this money grows on trees, and that it isn't a tax on everyone else that paid for college.
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Each of us lives somewhere. Maybe a big town or a small one, the countryside or the mountains, by the water or in the desert. And we often feel a heavy weight on our shoulders, for reasons big and small. Let me try to put our issues in perspective, starting with my own. 1/N.
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Lovely long-from post from my friend @morganhousel. All of us between 15 and about 85 should read it. After 85, it's probably too late. Only shame is Morgan has to sell his Lamborghini after writing this.
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I really don't understand this "X" business. @elonmusk is a forward thinker, and probably has a grand plan, but this one is really hard to see. Feels like dumping years of brand value in a single swoop.
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And yet despite today’s apparent 4% rev beat for Q2, 2023 EPS expectations have plummeted to $3.50. So earnings expectations for $TSLA are now down 55% in 9 months, and yet the stock is up 15%. In other words, the 2023 P/E multiple has expanded from 38x to 79x, or by 107%. 2/3.
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“Here was a price cut of approximately 12.5 per cent and profits per car almost halved.”. My latest op-ed on Tesla. A little something for $TSLA and $TSLAQ.
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Something here for the $TSLA bulls and the $TSLAQ bears. Things are different now, but the importance of separating the company from the stock price is as important as ever. My latest op-ed for the FT.
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A student loan bailout is unfair to those who have foregone college already, unfair to those who have gone and paid back their loans, and particularly unfair to the less fortunate in the future who want to go, but won’t be able to secure loans as easily.
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Unless the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal get their acts together again, and start doing the objective reporting they built their reputations on, then Substack is going Google them, or Netflix them, or whatever you want to call it. @DoombergT.
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The $TSLA masses getting all juiced up about about "a major auto OEM licensing FSD", when they themselves simultaneously believe that these same legacy auto OEMs are all losers and going bankrupt requires a jedi-master level of cognitive dissonance. Admit it, my dudes.
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So a slowdown from 68% to 36% annual unit growth, despite unprecedented price cuts globally?.
Tesla historical Q1 deliveries:. 2023: 422,875.2022: 310,048.2021: 184,877.2020: 88,296.2019: 63,019.2018: 29,980.2017: 25,051.2016: 14,820.2015: 10,045.2014: 6,457.2013: 4,900.
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During the '06-07 Christmas/NY holidays, I was short $APPL. There had been rumors about a product announcement, but $NOK had a dominating 40% global market share. 30 minutes into Jobs' presentation on Jan 7, 2007, I covered it all, and went long. Be able to change your mind.
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I’ve had a great debate over the past 2 years with Tesla fans, or I should say $TSLA fans. As some of you might now, I am not a $TSLA fan (although I am a Tesla fan). I simply believe that the stock price has built in grandiose, unrealistic expectations for their auto business.
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I’ve purchased a handful of investment-related books for a classmate of one of my kids, and @morganhousel joined the all-time greats. If you haven’t read it, you really should.
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Quick $TSLA thread. After estimating 2024 earnings of $7.25 per share 18 months ago, The Street now thinks Tesla will do just $2.56 of EPS in 2024. I am closer to $1.85.
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Last year at on this exact day, the “market” was anticipating 2023 earnings at Tesla of $5.92. The $TSLA faithful had even higher expectations. Today, I expect that FY number will be just $3.10. A thread.
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Exactly three years ago, Tesla had an $80 billion market cap. Even after losing over one trillion dollars in market cap from its bubble-high in the past year, it still has a diluted market cap of $390 billion, nearly 5x higher than where it was in December 2019. 1/4
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So, $289.33 x 3,468 million diluted shares equals $1.03 TRILLION dollars of market cap. Oh $TSLA.
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Today, $TSLA reported third quarter unit sales of the Model Y, 3, S, and X about 20,000 units below expectations, for sequential negative growth of 7%. This was despite further price cuts, so we should expect even more deterioration in operating margins and EPS. 1/3.
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A thread on investing in public companies vs. private equity, incentives and disincentives for both, and implications for pricing and returns. 1/22.
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I'm one of the lucky ones. I always knew what I wanted to do.
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My thoughts on Michael Burry, passive investing bubbles, and the firestorm this past week that engulfed @awealthofcs, @cliffordasness, @reformedbroker, @epsilontheory, and a host of other great FinTwit thinkers.
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It sure doesn’t feel like this is something $TSLA fans are paying much attention to. Be careful boys.
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Since Monday's close, $TSLA has gained over $250 billion of market cap, and now is worth over $1.1 trillion. Hat tip to those who own it, I gotta say.
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Toyota will sell more Electric Vehicles than $TSLA. VW will sell more EVs than TSLA. Daimler will sell more EVs than TSLA. Stellantis $STLA will sell more EVs than Tesla. Ford $F will sell more EVs than Tesla.Same for $GM, BMW, Honda, Nissan, and SAIC. Merely a question of when.
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My trying to convince US-based institutional investors to consider increasing exposure to super-cheap European companies, selling the same products and services to the same regions at the same prices, but trading at a steep discount.
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Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays, sports fans. I got the best gift in the world this year.
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"Hydrogen is not a source of energy, it is a carrier of energy, and not a particularly good one at that.". Sometimes when I read @DoombergT it feels like I am getting a chemistry lesson, but a ridiculously interesting one. This was no exception.
The Hitchhiker’s Guide to Hydrogen.
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This is fantastic stuff from @AswathDamodaran. Thoroughness that should help illuminate perspective. One question Aswath on the average P/Es by region/sector; are you using arithmetic or harmonic means?. Thanks for putting all this together.
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On January 1, the 50 least expensive stocks in the S&P 500 traded on an average FY21 P/E of 7.8x. Those exact same stocks now trade at 6.9x. On that same date, the 50 most expensive stocks traded at an average FY2021 multiple of 52x. Those exact same stocks now trade at 72x.
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Happy New Year sports fans. Our increasingly famous 😉 annual Dow Jones histogram is up, with some additional charts and tables asking some big questions about the future.
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We are building out our team and looking for stock-pickers. It’s a junior role (an analyst reporting to me) but high pressure, and lots to learn. If you are interested in learning more about Albert Bridge, and the role, please send a resume/CV to jobs@albertbridgecapital.com.
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WeWork pre-IPO investors.
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High prices are (mostly) because we overinvested in the transition (especially solar and wind), and simultaneously underinvested, starved resources and discouraged spending for high-density energy sources like oil and gas, and their infrastructure. 3/8.
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Here we go, @DoombergT is writing the words today that our kids, or their kids, will read in history textbooks decades from now. Deez is the facts.
1/ By systematically shutting down baseload-critical nuclear power facilities and replacing them with intermittent renewable energy, Germany has left itself – and by extension, the entire European Union – vulnerable to shortages of reliable sources of electricity.
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The math of hybrids as a transitional solution, especially when we are lacking in raw materials, is obvious - but try even mentioning them to a $TSLA fanboy, and you get the derisory, cult-like, condescending pushback, as if you are a a luddite.
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The $TSLA faithful insist on proselytizing that incumbent automakers are “legacy”, with all the smart engineers at Tesla, as if all the others are dumb, each with no clue about logistics, supply chains, or mass production. The ideologues are in for a rude awakening.
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Okay, reality check for $TSLA lovers, and for $TSLAQ haters. This is fascinating to me. 1/10.
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- there is little to no housing stock.- natural gas has doubled in four months.- uranium has in two .- there are 75 cargo ships stock outside the ports of LA and Long Beach. And this is all transitory?.
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If @EmmetPeppers ever convinces me to go long $TSLA, I am pretty sure this is how it will go.
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If $VFS (Vinfast) is lucky, they will do 40K units this year. Toyota will do 40K units in the next 40 hours. Market cap, $200B. When things act like this, one has to wonder. About everything.
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Update. Nine months later, the rock is down 89.5%, dropping from $2.3 million to $240,000. The house is still worth $2.3 million.
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These companies - who have nothing to do with rising energy prices - are already reluctant to spend CAPEX due to ESG narratives. So the UK government thinks it's a good idea to further discourage investment, just when we need it most. Just insane.
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@DougKimbrough @jimmy_3110 @EmmetPeppers @anthonyspredic1 @PaperBagInvest @SavedTesla I just went deep into the actual underlying data, and even looking within this five star cohort, the Model Y was indeed the NHTSA's highest ranking automobile in terms of safety in their last round of tests, FWIW. That's a Tesla bear talking, btw, but an objective one.😉.
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Yeah, no, this is not capitalism. PEMEX is a state entity created by the expropriation of American, English, and Dutch oil companies and reserves, and nationalized over 80 years ago. Bad stuff happens, but you can't blame this one on capitalism. Good try though.
The sea is on fire but some people *still* think capitalism can be managed.
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