Timothy Liu
@timothyhliu5
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Founder, Meditation Capital. Investor in companies with amazing products. Not investment advice
Joined March 2022
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Wow. Dinakar Singh and his wife poured >$100 mm into spinal muscular dystrophy research and after 20 years it's considered effectively cured.
Now Chip Wilson is hoping to do the same for another form of muscular dystrophy that he has. Fascinating Bloomberg article.
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Druckenmiller at Sohn: "If we get a hard landing, there will be unbelievable opportunities, and I don't want to miss those opportunities by blowing my money now and having some 20-30% loss where my head is all screwed up when those opportunities present themselves."
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Amazing line from latest Elliott letter:
"The trick is not to lose too much money in the bargain phase, which always precedes the really big bargains, which always precedes the insane bargains, which always precedes the magical moment when for no particular reason, markets turn"
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A few professors looked at Berkshire's 13Fs from 1980-2006.
Median holding period of 1 year. 30% of stocks sold within 6 months. Only 20% held for >2 years.
Would guess turnover was even higher pre-1980. (No 13Fs filed before 1979.)
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Todd Combs: "[The qualitative is the] secret sauce...when Warren and I were talking about stocks, acquisitions, whatever we talk, it's 95%-99% qualitative, qualitative, qualitative. And that comes down to all the stuff that he talks about in terms of moats, barriers to entry."
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Truly a ridiculous report.
Falsely implies that 1) only $KSPI opens accounts for Russians (contradicted by the very posts he links to);
2) that doing so for non-sanctioned individuals is illegal (if so, then every bank in Kazakhstan/Georgia/Armenia/etc. should be sanctioned)
1) We are short $KSPI, the operator of the largest payment network and second largest bank in Kazakhstan. Our full report is now available on our website.
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How is Microsoft driving such rapid execution at its scale? Azure AD coming from way behind to now posing a major threat vs. $OKTA. Defender improving dramatically to pose a long-term threat to $CRWD and $S. GitHub improving rapidly as well vs. $GTLB. Scary channel checks on all
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Analyzing Buffett's Washington Post purchase, taking the years 1973-1985. 20x return including dividends ($6.5 to $120), 26% IRR.
WaPo IPOs in 1971, but Buffett never buys IPOs. Buffett buys in 1973 after Nixon retaliation against Watergate reporting takes the stock down >50%
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Using the inversion technique, it's interesting to reflect on what the $KSPI report did not find / did not focus on.
I'm sure they looked really hard for evidence of:
1) problems with accounting, cash flow, cash not being real
2) damning quotes from former employees about bad
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A brilliant friend said something very interesting that I feel intuitively - this is actually a very forgiving market for mistakes. Because everything is down by similar amounts. If you made a mistake, swap out the mistake for a much better prospective investment.
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Was shocked to read Bill Dudley's oped from yesterday - he is explicitly telling us the Fed wants/needs stock markets to go down. To create a reverse wealth effect to help bring down inflation.
@realdennishong
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Fascinating, essential reading for those of us who never did software PE - Delaware Mindbody decision goes deep into the inside baseball of a sale. Lots of internal emails and texts from Vista, MB CEO, and bankers.
Lessons on:
- how VCs may become misaligned w/ public holders
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Mister Car Wash $MCW -41% YTD, but the CEO is continuing his 10b5 selling in large multi-million $ chunks.
CEO on the call talking about his dog barking and comparing car wash to watching an IMAX movie.
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Analyzing 13-Fs, part 1.
Meritage: Added new positions in Coupa (5% of 13F portfolio), Avalara (4%). Exited Mimecast. Largest positions: Salesforce, Charter, Google, Amazon, Transdigm, QSR, Zendesk, Workday, Coupa, Canadian Pacific, Microsoft, Moody's.
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Block $SQ only up 5% from its 2017 peak. No per share value created for 6 years.
Gross profit $839 million in 2017, $7.4 billion in 2023. Valuations matter!
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This is probably the most egregious & most visible demonstration of the bad faith behind the $KSPI report.
Culper guys look at a shareholder register and see a person named "Yulia Valerianovna Kim" as CEO of Magnum E-Commerce.
They decide to deliberately mistranslate the name
Some more ridiculous inaccuracies in the report - Vyacheslav Kim's daughter is not the CEO of Magnum E-Commerce. These Culper guys just found another woman named "Kim" and decided to say it was her. They deliberately mistranslate a name in the shareholder registry from "Yulia
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The Dara-ification of $UBER continues. Charged a $10 "booking fee" for a $46 base value ride lol.
Uber's definition of "booking fee": "The booking fee is a variable fee added to every trip you take. Booking Fees help support regulatory, safety, and operational costs."
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From $PLNT 10-K: "25% of all fitness facilities have permanently closed across the United States as a result of the pandemic." Wow.
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$EVO ‘s financials are very pretty but the details about how some of the “Asia” and “unregulated” revenue is generated is not so pretty
Mirror websites to avoid bans, renting/rotating bank accounts, cash to middlemen…
H/t
@_inpractise
great expert find
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I wrote up DPC Dash ($1405), Domino's franchisee in China, which looks like an interesting situation that is being overlooked due to liquidity (<$1 mm ADV).
Domino's has only 835 stores in China vs. management targeting 5,000+. Growing at >30% with very good store economics.
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The UK stock market is such a disaster. The RUMOR of a Bear Cave report was enough to send a $10 bn company down 21% on big volume, then it recovers, then goes down 8% after he denies it!
See also the effect on Kaspi from re-listing from London to New York - daily volume up 10x
I understand someone is circulating rumors that I published (or plan to publish) a critical article about $WISE in The Bear Cave newsletter, causing the stock to fall today
I have never published anything on the company and have no plans to do so. The rumors are false
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I wrote up Cab Payments, which is a bit akin to a B2B Wise. PE firm Helios turned a 200 yo bank into a FX platform focused on cheap transfers to Africa.
Quite a volatile journey since IPO, but the core value prop seems strong; trades for 7x FCF but should grow mid-high teens.
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How Lee Kuan Yew solved problems he encountered: “I almost never made the same mistake twice, and I tried to learn from the mistakes others made. I discovered early in office that there were few problems confronting me in government that other governments had not met and solved.”
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Very interesting - in China, AI ecommerce livestreamers are steadily replacing human livestreamers, resulting in average salaries already falling by 30% y/y.
(This MIT article says 20% cut, but the original source in Chinese actually says 30%, also driven in part by oversupply)
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Was shocked upon biting into a Tastien chicken burger - taste of the chicken+sauce is exactly the same as KFC, only the bun is much better (chewy Chinese dough). 50% cheaper.
Adding ~3500 stores/yr vs KFC +1200. Seems like could become a big long-term challenge to $YUMC.
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In Feb 2018, Becky Quick asked Warren about his bullish view on equities:
"If I told you that the long bond was going to trade at 4.5-5% next year, what would you –"
Buffett: "It makes a difference."
Buffett earlier in the interview: "the yardstick is government bonds"
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@FoundersPodcast
Apparently this is a common sentiment when people discover
@FoundersPodcast
.
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In case of interest, sharing my Excel sheet which has financials from 1962-2012
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China is a brutal place to try to make money. There are many businesses where in the US you think "I'm not sure why it'll have a moat, but it earns good returns so maybe there's a moat somewhere" but anyone trying the same business model in China quickly finds there's no moat.
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Thinking through Buffett's Coke investment, taking the period 1987-1995. 32% IRR including dividends (9x). What's interesting is revenues only grew at 11% CAGR. Additional drivers: EBIT CAGR'd at 15% (mix-shift to higher margin international), diluted shares -2%, P/E multiple +8%
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Ruane: "A classic example is Genentech, a recent new issue which is selling in the market place for $330 million and earned $81,000 in 1979. Clearly the profit prospects...will have to be enormous for the company to justify the current price"
2009: Genentech sold for $100 bn EV
Think your stocks are cheap?
In the early 1980s, consumer staples sold for mid-to-high singledigit multiples. Here’s an old Sequoia letter where Bill Ruane writes about buying Gillette and Pepsi at 7½ times earnings.
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China speed can be insane. Sometimes I forget then I see a stat that reminds me.
Cotti Coffee (founded by disgraced Luckin execs) opened 4000 stores within half a year and 6000 in <1 year (!) since founding. (Starbucks has 6500)
Mixue Tea opened 18,000 stores in 3 years.
Etc.
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Tepper, when asked about disappointing jobless claims in his 2010 CNBC interview:
"Look, a lot of times, you've got this data that's backward. I can't worry about backward. I gotta look for the future"
h/t
@kevg1412
for resurfacing this amazing interview
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I wrote in my $KSPI writeup (available on my website, 4Q23) about the assiduous efforts Kazakhstan has taken to reject any participation in Russia's invasion of Ukraine and avoid secondary sanctions. A member of Parliament was expelled for saying he supports the "special military
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Nomad/Buffett wrote this about shuffling yearly fund returns, but you could also apply this logic to company revenue growth. If instead of 30% growth next year then 20%, you get 20% next year then 30%, the stock will be terrible, but does the end state change for a good business?
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@SuperMugatu
On Churchill: "he found the nap an absolute necessity, permitting him, he said, “to press a day and a half’s work into one.” Mary remembers that after an hour’s rest he “awoke a giant refreshed.”
(from The Last Lion)
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Alpha Ally Holdings is probably Gang Ye.
Lin Cheng is the director, not the owner, whose name is redacted.
Of the Sea founders, only Gang Ye's name is short enough to fit into the redacted space, which is shorter than "Cheng Lin".
$SE
Massive $113 million insider sale of $SE today by Alpha Ally Holdings
Form 144 filings were only required to be digitally filed starting in April - prior to that these were mailed to the SEC and you had to subscribe to a paid service to see them
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Some more ridiculous inaccuracies in the report - Vyacheslav Kim's daughter is not the CEO of Magnum E-Commerce. These Culper guys just found another woman named "Kim" and decided to say it was her. They deliberately mistranslate a name in the shareholder registry from "Yulia
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$SE Shopee's Reclame Aqui review score (a metric
@BuyandHoldd
said to watch in his great Oct 2021 writeup) has now exceeded that of $Meli: 7.4 for Shopee vs. 7.0 for Meli. Big improvement from Shopee's 6.7 in 2021. Is this real or something biasing the results?
@FedexSTi
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Interesting points from Greg Jensen interview: 1- expects double the normal length of recession b/c Fed will ease more slowly due to inflation, could be "long grind" of a couple years; 2- China reopening is bad for US, will boost inflation; 3- cash looks attractive vs equities
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@m_lomtadze
Horrible short report filled with egregious lies and comical errors.
This is a total joke. No need for a "former $KSPI employee" to tell you that - there's no Uber in Kazakhstan and Yandex Taxi is ubiquitous.
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If you're a Russian oligarch and looking to store dollars, euros, even ruble - Kaspi is not the place for you. Kaspi makes it very hard to place non-tenge deposits, and only 9% of its deposits are non-tenge. SWIFT payments into Kaspi accounts get automatically converted to tenge.
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Some major accounting differences here. $DASH revenues are after all rider costs as well as consumer incentives. $DHER and $ROO revenues are before all rider costs. $UBER is in between. Dash trades at 0.3x GTV vs. Uber 0.4x, but Dash is a far superior business & management
$DASH, still at 4x revenues, is beginning to re-rate toward the US gig companies ($LYFT at 1.5x, $UBER at 2x) and the major foreign food delivery companies(1x). All are unprofitable.
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$PDD's communications strategy is to give a giant middle finger to their investors on every important topic. Management treats investors like chumps.
Representative interaction below:
Why did your revenue grow 66%?
A: positive industry trends, high-quality development strategy
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Interesting datapoint from Zaslav at Communacopia: 50-75% of a lot of their cable channel audience is >54. They only get paid by advertisers on the 25-54 audience which by now is a minority.
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1 min before meeting starts, check calendar invite, see Teams link instead of Zoom - immediate splitting headache/panic. Link opens up Teams app, takes forever to load, then error with login. Frantically try to switch to web Teams, show up late
Do others have this experience?
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$JD's EV is now ~20% of $PDD's, yet PDD still looks like the much better investment. Pretty wild.
JD has added no per-share value since the post-IPO run-up to $28 in June 2014. GMV was $49 bn in 2014 vs. ~$500 bn for 2023. EV/GMV is now 0.05x.
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Massive $113 million insider sale of $SE today by Alpha Ally Holdings
Form 144 filings were only required to be digitally filed starting in April - prior to that these were mailed to the SEC and you had to subscribe to a paid service to see them
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Always been impressed & grateful for the degree of openness and camaraderie in the investment business.
Can reach out to someone (even if completely cold, via LinkedIn "hey I saw your fund owns this stock") and often they'd be willing to share >80% of their thinking on it.
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Full text of the Delaware court's decision here:
Super, super impressed with the Delaware court's analysis. Seems like the Delaware system is a crown jewel in American capitalism.
Same judge, McCormick, who presided over Elon's acquisition of Twitter.
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So on April 28th, $YY sold all of its $HUYA shares to Tencent for $5.73/ADS (when $HUYA traded for $3.25), leading to Tencent owning 63% of HUYA.
HUYA now trades at $2.16 (vs $6/ADS net cash), business is breakeven ish, just announced buyback of up to 18% of market cap.
Is
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Why did Buffett buy it?
- low multiple (9x 1973 EPS); trading far below private market value (see quote)
- underearning; margins below historical peaks (10% newspaper margin vs. 14-15% prior)
- Buffett was super interested in media
- inflation protection, due to pricing power
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Similar comments from Chewy - saw an inflection in consumer behavior in July. Less wet food more dry food, fewer treats, etc
"Coming out of Q2, what we've seen is a slightly more discernible customer. And it really started in July for us much more than it did in May and June"
Interesting commentary from Extra Space Storage: sudden slowdown in new customers in June and July, enough that they needed to lower guidance
One analyst: "it seems like the light switch went off in June or July"
Why? Mgmt: housing, covid savings, inflation, fewer $ in pockets
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Seeing a wave of big capital returns from Chinese tech ADRs. Pressure had been building for a while and now everyone seems to be doing it.
Lufax $2.42 special dividend (stock $3.35 pre-announcement), Huya $0.66 special dividend, QFIN guiding 70% payout (17% yield on annc), etc
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This is a total joke. No need for a "former $KSPI employee" to tell you that - there's no Uber in Kazakhstan and Yandex Taxi is ubiquitous.
@AureliusValue
17) Similarly, a former $KSPI employee says the Company partners with Russia's for marketplace and grocery deliveries. In 2022, Estonia banned , citing concerns that user data was being shared with the Kremlin.
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Interesting trend from CarMax - higher rates are elongating trade-in cycle for cars, just like for houses, b/c consumers aren't willing to give up a lower rate
Conversion falls off when they see monthly payments
Truist saying monthly payments are 40-50% above pre-covid levels
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A rare glimpse into a company's internal pre-IPO dynamics: Ackman's letter to strategic partners was not supposed to be made public but his lawyers decided it had to be.
Gives you Ackman's views on IPO dynamics, feedback from investors, how he reframed possible concerns, etc.
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Coupang's EV is 50% higher than Sea's, wow.
Ecommerce penetration in Korea is ~35%
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The highlighted Yandex reviews are also ridiculous. Russian users give it 5 stars for the same reason Kazakhs do - unlike other banks in Kazakhstan which tend to be bureaucratic and slow (toward all users including Kazakhs), Kaspi branches are efficiently run, with various
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Was thinking about this in the context of massive decel/derate at $MDB. When valuations are high, track t+1 very closely (along with everyone else). When valuations are low, at a certain inflection point, time to refocus on the long term rather than worrying about the next cut.
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Great framework from $TEAM CEO on whether AI will lead to fewer software developers: think about it in terms of supply/demand for software.
"We are constrained by the supply of developers in the world, not the demand, the number of ideas or pieces of software we could create."
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The return from 1973-1985 in numbers. LTM P/E of 11x at Buffett's purchase, 15x by 1985 - so multiple expansion only played a limited role. 13% CAGR in revenues (inflation 7%), 19% CAGR in operating profit driven by margin expansion from 10% to 19%. Shares outstanding -31% total
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This is nuts - I knew the market didn't go anywhere for a long time in the late 60s through early 80s, but I didn't realize it declined 74% in real terms 🤯. Trying to study the 73-74 crash in more detail.
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Kaspi deposits don't match this chart at all. The biggest growth in Kaspi deposits came during 2023, when according to this chart nonresident deposits were flat.
4) In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, and Western sanctions followed. Millions fled to neighboring Kazakhstan to open bank accounts and payment cards at non-sanctioned banks. While Kaz's largest bank Halyk stepped back, we believe $KSPI welcomed Russians in.
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Wow. Jamie Dimon today: "do they want banks to ever be investable again?...I wouldn't be a big buyer of banks. I'd be no better than equal weight."
RWA expected to be +30% under the new rules. 17% ROE goes to 14% before optimizations (which they'll do).
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Really loving
@flowdotclub
where you co-work with a few other people with group music & video on. Feel like my productivity has skyrocketed since starting on it a month ago. I liked it so much I became a host - join my late night sessions!
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Impressed by how quickly internet platforms like $CPNG, $PDD, and $DHER have pivoted toward improving profitability. There should be a lot of flex in $SE's cost structure (but would mean sacrificing some investments).
$CPNG went from -5.6% to 1.3% EBITDA margin in two quarters.
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Interesting line from Jassy: "we think one of the most compelling applications that are going to be built in generative AI have to do with making developers much more effective with coding assistance."
"And so we built something called CodeWhisperer..." (cont'd)
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I have a friend who whenever I talk to him I feel like is having the most fun in the world looking at stocks. His attitude is infectious and brings down my stress as well. Probably not coincidentally, he runs the most successful fund I know.
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Absolutely loved listening to
@FoundersPodcast
episode 330 on Les Schwab's autobiography, which Munger recommended but is out of print.
Am very late to it, but so glad I discovered this podcast. Can see myself listening to many of the 338 (and counting) episodes.
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In these times (and in general), I think whoever is least stressed wins. Not just in terms of returns, but also in terms of experiencing life meaningfully.
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Liberty TripAdvisor $LTRPA heading toward zero.
I'm not tight on the numbers but I believe NAV at current $TRIP price is ~negative $2.
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$WISE can make a cross-currency, cross-border transfer for just 0.6%. Meanwhile Square will charge a SMB 3.6% for a $10 transaction (2.6%+10c). In China WeChat charges 0.6%. I get why the system is the way it is, but there's gotta be a way to make payments cost less for SMBs.
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Commodities are falling. But how can core inflation slow unless wage growth slows? W/o more tightening, how can wage growth slow when labor is in shortage and real wages are falling?
@LHSummers
: "wages are the ultimate measure of core inflation. Most costs go back to labor."
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Who benefits from higher for longer rates? Georgian and Kazakh banks!
Locals prefer to save in USD, but govt discourages USD saving -> banks pay low rates on USD deposits (1-1.5%), which they invest into Treasuries. Big & risk-free boost to NIM/ROE vs. ZIRP
$BGEO, $TBC, $HSBK
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This is really impressive - ChatGPT was able to explain correctly a very niche concept (Datadog's 99th percentile pricing).
Use ChatGPT as your personal analyst! I have it open as a separate window (separate browser for this purpose) and constantly ask it questions as I read.
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@ReturnsJourney
Their research was pretty comprehensive and went back a long time; my guess is they tried and couldn’t find an angle.
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Just noticed today that there is a listed Chinese Domino's franchise, DPC Dash $1405.HK. Recent IPO from March 2023. Don't know anything about the company, but interesting.
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Dalio predicts:
- we are "just before the economic contraction that is likely to make the next year or two difficult ones in the economy"
- "the debt ceiling increase will not go as smoothly as most people expect"
- "debts...will have to be bought by [CBs]"
Says we are here:
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@WallStCynic
@blue_chip1
According to a S&P ratings report, Carvana finances 75-80% of all sales. For nonprime, Carvana issues ABS deals with an average FICO score of 584 (example deal linked below). Carvana's 10-K has no mention of "FICO" or "nonprime"/"subprime"
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@seekinggarp
That's definitely there, but I was referring more to the product quality itself. The core products in identity, security, and DevOps are improving fast and in some cases approaching parity with best-of-breed. That's pretty shocking to see from a huge org focused on many things.
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Airtable website unique visitors and total visitors growth declining to near flat. $SMAR
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J&T Express Brazil now has 1,029 employees on LinkedIn, up from just 350 when
@HaydenCapital
wrote his 4Q21 letter in Feb. $SE
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(cont'd)
- high quality journalism and good mgmt; mgmt team (Graham and Bradlee) emphasized high journalistic standards
- low capital intensity (4% of revenue), so high FCF generation relative to earnings
- high ROIC: 40% pretax return on tangible capital (50% tax at the time)
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Example: links to thread with this caption ("See again numerous comments from Russian forum in which users consistently highlight new accounts with Kaspi")
If you open the link (), it highlights Russian
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For $SE Taiwan, Momoshop and PCHome just can't compete in terms of technology. Momo spends $7 mm/year on R&D, PCHome $18 mm. Sea's R&D budget will cross $1 bn this year across all business segments/markets.
PCHome's website looks like this:
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Interesting - $AMZN has compounded at only a 5% CAGR since its mid-2018 peak. EV/NTM Sales was 3.8x then, vs. 2.3x now.
Valuation matters, even for great companies. The 2017-2018 runup felt amazing at the time but in hindsight pulled too much forward.
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Worth watching Tenten Masduki's (the Indonesian minister leading the TikTok Shop separation) Instagram comments. It seems his issue is with foreign ecommerce players and foreign imports, not just TikTok.
A clear win for Shopee now, but could be issues down the line. $SE
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Another example: highlights a comment that says "The easiest option is Kaspi...10 minutes to process documents"
If you open the link () it shows an article explaining the process to open a Kazakh account before you even get to the bank (have to register
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$TKWY losing massive amounts of share in Italy to Deliveroo and Glovo. If trends continue, Deliveroo will overtake them as
#1
in Italy in a year. In early 2019 Just Eat had 80% share. Clear across many food delivery markets - superior customer experience wins.
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As long as GGR is generated, who cares about the source right? $EVO
"when the police officially announced they would track down online casinos, many brands became afraid and wanted to leave the market. This...created an opportunity for new brands that didn't care about the law"
$EVO ‘s financials are very pretty but the details about how some of the “Asia” and “unregulated” revenue is generated is not so pretty
Mirror websites to avoid bans, renting/rotating bank accounts, cash to middlemen…
H/t
@_inpractise
great expert find
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Reffkin on the $COMP call: "in Manhattan, 65% of offers are all cash. In the country, it's around 40%, which historically is around 25%."
Wow. How are people funding these all-cash offers? Seems like there's just a ton of wealth out there.
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A few more quotes from Buffett, from a retrospective analysis in his 1985 annual letter
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The growth of $DASH is going to put more and more pressure on $UBER and $LYFT driver supply. Food delivery is a superior driver experience (no risks w/ passengers, no need to keep vehicle clean, more tips) and gets better over time (more orders/hr) whereas ridesharing is stagnant
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